[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

^ No kidding. I want more rain!!!!

[arbeiter]

it barely rained yesterday, or actually, i don't think it did at all. (downtown, queen anne, belltown, cap hill)

i do like the colder weather though. i wish it would stay about 60 year around like it does in the altiplano of south america!

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

^ Hmmm.... Well the convergence stayed mostly to the north, but dipped down into Seattle late last night and early morning, so we did get a little rain, but for today there is a chance of afternoon T-Storms in the Cascades.

[moosanova]

Well guys i'm back...... and it's time to wet your appetites as far as winter is concerned ( if you guys care at all )

I have been looking at the long range progs. ( model forecasts ) that go out almost 3 weeks and i hope you are ready for some serious rain and cooler weather come late this month and early october.

Currently we are in a transition period right now as we move out of Summer
(rapidly) and into Fall and as we do so i'm sure most if not all of you have noticed that lately the weather has been more fall like with rainy periods with an apparent chill in the air.

Well as we move closer to ctober that transition period will move us into a rainy ( and i mean RAINY period) that will last at least a week with daytime highs barely getting out of the low 50's ...

This next portion of weather info is more climatologically based and thus most of you won't know what the hell i'm talking about but i will break it down for you at the end so you're not sitting there going..... WTF????

So here goes........

1. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reported by NOAA/NESDIS on August 27, 2007 show cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific, characteristic of the developing “La Niña” event.

( basically this means that the temp of the Eastern Pacific Ocean is dropping off and rapidly )

2. 1. Multi-decadal phase. OCS has identified periods of 20-25 years with generally warm-dry or cool-wet conditions. In each phase, about 75% of all years have been above (wet phase) or below (dry phase) average. The last wet phase was from the late 1940's until the mid-1970's. We believe that we reentered a wet phase in the mid-1990's, making a wetter than average year much more likely than a dry one. Probably the best indicator of these cycles is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) parameter. The closest analog years to 2007 are 1945, 1953, and 1990.

( This means that we are currently in a wet to above average rain cycle and thus can look forward to an above average rainy season this year 07-08)

3. 2. The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is based on six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. These six variables are: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C). The MEI is computed separately for each of twelve sliding bi-monthly seasons (Dec/Jan, Jan/Feb,...,Nov/Dec). The closest analog years to 2007 are 1952, 1959, 1970, 1978, and 1988.

( This means that based on analog years we can expect an above average chance of having a moderate to severe winter based on these previous years winters)


4. Based on a composite of those analyses, the analog years which most closely resemble 2007 (considering the months Jan - July) are 1952, 1953, 1970, and 1988. Using a map composite tool provided by the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder Colorado from their website at http://www.cdc.noaa.gov, I created the following temperature and precipitation anomaly maps:

( This is a general idea of what could happen and is based solely off previous yearly trends that occured during analog years ).... so based off of that, here is what i feel will occur for the Pac. Nw- and this includes west of the Cascade crest as well as E. Wash. and E. Oregon.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------


Temperature Oct-Dec Below average statewide ( for Wa and Ore. )

Precipitation Oct-Dec Above average in W. Wash and N. central Ore. Average elsewhere

Temperature Jan-Mar Well below normal in W. Wash. and W. Ore. Near average Central-East

Precipitation Jan-Mar Above Average Statewide ( Wa. and Ore. )

So there ya have it....... based on previous years and the data that is used to calculate analog years to this year which is shaping up to be a La Nina and you have a recipe for a winter that is going to be exciting and brutal at times.

Stay Tuned as it is sure to be eventful.............

[arbeiter]

So are we thinking snowstorms?

[MtnClimber]

it barely rained yesterday, or actually, i don't think it did at all. (downtown, queen anne, belltown, cap hill)

i do like the colder weather though. i wish it would stay about 60 year around like it does in the altiplano of south america!

How is staying 60 degrees year around colder? Seattle is alot colderthen that in the winter. Heck this summer it was mostly in the 60s lol.

And as far as snowstorms go, just because we are in a La Nina does not necessairly mean we are going to get alot of snow in the lowlands. Yes the mountains saw record snow falls approaching 100 feet!!!!!! But locations west of the Cascades below 1500 feet of elevation hardly saw any during the record snow year of 98-99. Just a bunch of freakin rain! Sometimes in netural years we see more snow down in Seattle.

That being said Seattle is capable of huge snowfalls. 68-69 Sea-Tac Airport recorded 67.5 inches of snow on the ground. The 1950s saw some pretty impressive snow years as well, Lake Washington even froze over. I won't even go into the 1800's! Seattle easily had over 5 feet of snow a few times.

January 1950 was the Coldest month of the 20th century for WA state. Many of the rivers froze over and their were ice jams.

[arbeiter]

60's is colder weather than it has been - it was mostly mid to upper 70's until last week...

[James Bond Agent 007]

So are we thinking snowstorms?
Yeah that's what I wanna know.

I want snow, dammit! And lots of it! :whip:

[MtnClimber]

Yeah that's what I wanna know.

I want snow, dammit! And lots of it! :whip:


See my post above. hehe I hope so too.

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Yeah that's what I wanna know.

I want snow, dammit! And lots of it! :whip:

Me 2!! and Cooler Temps!!!

[James Bond Agent 007]

Snow!!!!!!! :banana:

Last updated September 25, 2007 9:07 p.m. PT
Brace for snow in Cascades
P-I STAFF

If Tuesday's soggy weather didn't tip you off, weather prognosticators are predicting a sure sign that summer is at an end -- snow is coming to the lower Cascades.

The first cold front of autumn is expected to arrive Thursday evening, bringing snow to elevations above 4,000 feet, National Weather Service meteorologist Dennis D'Amico said.

That could mean drivers hitting the state's higher mountain passes could see snow flurries or sleet. Hikers planning on camping at high elevation should also be prepared for a cold night.

Snow at higher elevations isn't uncommon this time of year, D'Amico said. Still, it tends to take people by surprise.

"This is the time of year for things to change," he said. "If you were hiking or camping up high, you could see some snow."

D'Amico said temperatures should return to normal through the weekend: "We're not looking at an Indian summer or anything, but temperatures will warm up a little bit."

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Bond, you beat me to it. Also there wil be a lot of instability in the atmosphere on Friday so there is a chane of T-Stroms.

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

A few T-storms have been heading south-southwest over Lake Sammamish and North bend. They will probably die down when reaching higher elevations.

[James Bond Agent 007]

Snow!! :banana:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003910423_websnow28m.html

Friday, September 28, 2007 - Page updated at 10:59 AM
Big snow this year? La Niña could bring it
By Christina Siderius
Seattle Times staff reporter

Skiers dreaming of carving fresh tracks will be happy to hear that it may snow more than normal in Western Washington this winter.

Forecasters say La Niña — the unusual cooling of water in the Pacific Ocean — will cause more rainfall and varying temperatures in the upcoming months. Those conditions generally mean more snow.

"The chances are we're going to have more snow than normal, but there's no guarantee," said Clifford Mass, a professor at the UW's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. "We do get significantly more snow in La Niña years."

Major snowfall hit Western Washington during the 1998-99 season — also a La Niña year, said Mass.

During that season, Mount Baker recorded about 95 feet — the most snowfall ever measured in the United States in a single season, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration.

That winter isn't a typical indication of the upcoming season, but Mass said that the forecast is "good news for skiers."

Dustin Guy, forecaster for the National Weather Service in Seattle, cautioned that it's probably too early to tell how much more snow the region will get this winter.

Most area ski resorts see between 350 to 450 inches of snowfall a year in an average year, he said. Stevens Pass receives about 450 inches a year, while Crystal Mountain gets about 380 inches on average, he said.

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Great!!! It sounds like it will be a great ski season this year.

[Dougall5505]

my power went out last night because of lightning

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

^Hmm..... That's odd. Usually the instability from these Winter/Fall Storms stay to the north. And does PDX have that many T-Storms???

[Aleks]

Wait. Didn't the farmers almanac predict one of the worst snow falls for Seattle in years?

I think I saw it on the news.

[Aleks]

November was a crazy month for weather

P-I STAFF

Weather wreaked havoc on Western Washington, bringing snowstorms, flooding and high winds. Here's a look back by the numbers:

18 degrees: Lowest temperature for any Nov. 29 on record. Breaks Nov. 29, 1975, record of 22 degrees.

15.63 inches: Most rainfall -- as measured at Sea-Tac Airport. Breaks December 1933 record of 15.33 inches measured at Federal Building in Seattle. Breaks January 1953 record of 12.92 inches measured at Sea-Tac Airport.

First snowfall on a Nov. 26 at Sea-Tac Airport: The amount was a trace of snow, which is a less than a tenth of an inch.

23 high-wind warnings issued by National Weather Service.

50 flood warnings issued by National Weather Service.

25 state highway closures due to flooding between Nov. 6 and Nov. 8.

68,256 in attendance at the first snow game at Qwest Field.

32,000 calls received by the 511 Traveler Information system during the Monday, Nov. 27, nightmare commute.

659 meals served to flood victims by the King County Red Cross.

482 overtime hours worked by Seattle Department of Transportation employees during this week's snowfall.

13 hours of classes canceled by weather at Seattle public schools.

Sources: National Weather Service, Seattle Department of Transportation, Washington State Department of Transportation, the Seahawks, Seattle Public Schools, King County Red Cross.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/294383_crazymonth01.html

Oh my gosh!! November was the worst month ever for me!!
On the 30rth of Nov of 2006 I got home at 10 p.m. from West Seattle High. School got out at 2:15!!!!!

I got a ride from a stranger, fucked up my shoes, my shorts, my Northface, my backpack, dropped the bib dispenser at McDonalds because we were going to put our cell phones in the bibs so they wouldn't get wet! wait at least 4 1/2 hours for 3 buses, and got all my work wet including a one week essay.

At least I got to see some really hot people that day....

[zilfondel]

I dug the weather today in PDX - cool temps, a bit of misting on the street, just perfect. Too bad I came down with a cold this week... and had to lay in bed for 2 days while the landlord had the roof redone (and got it finished with mere hours to spare before it started raining the other day!).

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Oh my gosh!! November was the worst month ever for me!!
On the 30rth of Nov of 2006 I got home at 10 p.m. from West Seattle High. School got out at 2:15!!!!!

I got a ride from a stranger, fucked up my shoes, my shorts, my Northface, my backpack, dropped the bib dispenser at McDonalds because we were going to put our cell phones in the bibs so they wouldn't get wet! wait at least 4 1/2 hours for 3 buses, and got all my work wet including a one week essay.

At least I got to see some really hot people that day....

Ya, November was a struggle for everyone commuting. And hey I live right by West Seattle High.

-Looks like we could get 2 inches of rain this weekend with the next coming system.

[MarkDaMan]

It all adds up to 2007's rainiest day
Weather - Friday's rainfall marks the beginning of a long stretch of wet days, including a "big and juicy" storm coming Sunday -
Saturday, September 29, 2007
STUART TOMLINSON
The Oregonian

TIMBERLINE LODGE -- Tina and Noel Runge of Sherwood brought their children to Mount Hood on Friday expecting clear skies, sunny weather and bright fall colors.

Instead, they got snow. And not just a dusting.

As 11-year-old Lydia and 9-year-old Jack Runge exchanged wet snowballs, the snow flew sideways, accumulating an inch every hour on the slopes above Timberline Lodge. Inside, people carved off slabs of sheet cake to celebrate the lodge's 70th anniversary.

"It's a nice surprise," Tina Runge said of the snow only 60 miles from downtown Portland. "The kids love it."

Less of a surprise is how the weather took a wintry turn regionwide Friday, likely to be the first in a long string of wet days stretching into late next week. October, just around the corner, tends to mark the beginning of a rainy season that typically lasts through May in western Oregon.

In Portland, 1.1 inches of rain fell from midnight to 4 p.m. Friday, shattering the old record of .78 inches for the date, and making it the rainiest day of 2007. More rain fell at Portland International Airport than accumulated in the entire months of June (1.08 inches), July (.55 inches) and August (.46 inches).

The day may prove to be an appropriate beginning to the season. State and federal forecasters agree that a growing La Nina -- the below-average cooling of the near-equatorial Pacific Ocean -- is likely to bring the Northwest a wetter-and cooler-than-average fall and winter.

"Sunday's storm looks big and juicy," George Taylor of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State University said of the immediate future. Taylor has predicted a bigger-than-average snowpack in the mountains this year, and a good chance for lower-elevation snow in the western part of the state.

Most years, the transition from warm-and-dry to cold-and-wet comes in the middle of October, he said. But some years it can come later or, like this year, earlier.

"At the beginning of October, the probability of rain in western Oregon is 30 percent," Taylor said. "By the end of October, it's 50 percent. Last year, the season really kicked off on the first of November."

Jeff Kohnstamm, president of the lodge and ski area at Timberline, said Friday's snowfall will probably melt away: In the past 50 years, the ski area has opened only twice before Halloween. Thanksgiving weekend is the ideal time to start, he said.

Whether the snow sticks around or not, the season certainly started off with a bang. Hail piled inches deep on Interstate 84 south of Portland International Airport on Friday, and torrential rains soaked U.S. 26 from Rhododendron to Gresham. Snow piled up on Mount Hood.

Tiffani Brown, a forecaster for the National Weather Service in Portland, said the jet stream is pointed directly at the Northwest and will bring system after system our way next week, with very few breaks.

"We are expecting quite a bit of weather," Brown said. "It was so nice earlier this week that people aren't paying attention, but they need to be prepared for wet, cold weather.

"It's our time for the rain."

Stuart Tomlinson: 503-221-8313; stuarttomlinson@ news.oregonian.com
http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1191038122224070.xml&coll=7

[zilfondel]

Interesting, I never got a drop on me on Friday.

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

The NW is gonna get soaked the next few days.

[Hoodrat]

i loath snow

[Vashon118]

From the KOMO-TV website:

Rainfall total for 10/01/06 - 09/30/07: 47.32", which is 10.25" above the normal of 37.07").

Rainfall total for the year is now above normal.

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

^That total will probably increase the next two days as a large system rolls in with more rain.

[James Bond Agent 007]

It's only the 2nd day of October, but from the way it's raining out right now, you'd think it was late November or December.

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

From the Weather Channel:

Wednesday- Thunderstorms-70%
Thusday- Thunderstorms-100% (rain up to a inch)

[Black Box]

The fog is thick in the lowlands this morning. It's so romantic.

[zilfondel]

warm and sunny in Portland... err, was!

[James Bond Agent 007]

Last updated November 11, 2007 8:28 p.m. PT
Monday windstorm could bring gusts up to 60 mph
P-I STAFF

The Seattle area could remain under a high wind watch Monday, the National Weather Service reported.

Winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected in Seattle, with gusts up to 60 mph. The storm is expected to bring the strongest winds between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m.

The Western Washington coast could see powerful wind gusts and dangerous surf as early as 4 a.m. People should avoid beaches with waves that are strong enough to toss logs and debris onshore.

Western Skagit, Western Whatcom and San Juan counties could also see stronger winds around 7 a.m. and easing in the afternoon.

The first big storm of the season struck several weeks ago, knocking out power to more than 280,000 homes and businesses in the Puget Sound region.

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Dang it poured today in Seattle.

[moosanova]

Wahhhhhh......

What's going on westseattle ????

how ya been ???

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Eh! I've been good. I see you're kinda back. lol. How have you been?

[James Bond Agent 007]

I had a dream last night we got snow.

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

lol. It's gonna get cold next week. Lows below or at freezing. burrrrr.

[alexjon]

I'm watching maps and models-- is the air REALLY that saturated that clear spots turn into clouds in the rotation off the peninsula?

I thought there'd be some sort of clearing or sunbreaks :[

[sequoias]

Brrrr, it's cold here! It's currently 30 degrees outside at 9:21 pm Friday here in Bothell.

Oh by the way, the temperature went down to 26 degrees that morning!

[James Bond Agent 007]

We might get some snow over the next week or so!! :banana:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/tenday/98101

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Hmm. Well the is a winter weather alert out saying that there could be snow in small accumulation north of Seattle and a chance of rain/snow in downtown/Seattle Metro on Wednesday night. but if this system drips more south we could pic up some accumulation around Downtown. Also we could have some snow over the weekend. Most likely Sunday. We will just have to keep an eye out for this developing system.

[James Bond Agent 007]

We might get some snow over the next week or so!! :banana:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/tenday/98101
Arrrgh!!!! They changed the forecast to all rain!! :mad:

Maybe here in Issaquah I'll get a bit of snow.

[alexjon]

Back to snow.

YAYAYAYAY SNOW!

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

It a mix of rain and snow over in West Seattle now. Bond, I'm sure you will get snow up in Issaquah or on the Plateau, or where ever you are. lol.

[James Bond Agent 007]

Where's my snow, dammit! :hell:

[arbeiter]

It says snow for Saturday

[James Bond Agent 007]

^
Yeah, well yesterday they said here in Issaquah we would get a bit of snow overnight and today during the day. I'm still waiting. :mad:

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

LOL. Your snow will come.

[moosanova]

ok guys i know alot of us here want snow REAL BAD !!!!

Here is the scenario right now as it stands.....

The current models are a mess about this weekend especially concerning snow.

The 18z GFS and NAM models show snow starting over all of W. washington by mid-day Saturday before changing over to all rain either early sunday morning or afternoon..... In this scenario places like downtown seattle could receive as much as 8 inches while places higher in elevation and further north could receive as much as 10 inches...... Please note that this is only preliminary as the storm system that would be responsible for this event to take place is still uncertain in track and placement.....

The latest model runs won't be out until 5pm and at which point there will be some degree of certainty.....

To give you a better idea of what needs to happen i need to described what is taking place.....

First of all there is a polar high situated just to our north of BC that should eventually starty surging Southward tonight and early tomorrow, that will inturn bring us some Modeified arctic air which will lower our overnight lows and limit our daytime highs as this sytem offshore approaches....

If this polar high does not drop south as anticiapted then it will be harder for us to start as snow over most of the area as the system offshore is rich in moisture and VERY WARM AIR...... which will eventually turn us to all rain if any snow does develop......

The earlier models indicated that the system offshore was aimed to come ashore somewhere between Astoria Oregon and Ocean Shores Washinton.... if it were to come in anywhere between there it would be a close call for seattle as far as snow and all rain for portland.....

But local Mets. and myself are anticipating that the latest models will show the LOW moving ashore somewhere betwwen Portland And Salem which in this case would mean ALL Snow for Seattle and a start of snow and then Rain for portland !!!!

So as you can see right now it is very hard to discern where and when this storms system will come ashore, Track and Placement are everything.....

But if i had to make a forecast right now, here's what i would say......

Please note this is only for seattle

very cold overnight through early sunday morning with overnight lows below freezing for most if not all of W. Wash.

Daytime highs will struggle into the weekend to get above freezing in most areas but areas closer to the water should be in the mid 30's at best Especially saturday as the moisture begins to move in.....

If the models hold true as they have showed, be prepared for significant snowfall over most of W. Wash. beginning around noon or just a little after continuing through mid morning sunday......

Preliminary amounts are as follows.....

Downtown seattle 3-6 inches
Higher hills 4-8 inches
Everett North 6-10 inches

This is ALL PRELIMINARY !!!!!

Stay tuned as the storm aproaches and things are sure to change....

~ Patrick

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Hmm..... I hope your right. If this warm front develops then we could get no snow at all. What do you think about the warm front pat?

[James Bond Agent 007]

Where's my snow, dammit! :order:

If we don't get any snow in the next few days, I'll blame it all on you, moosanova. :mad:

[ghost22]

woot we got snow here in CDA, almost 5 inches on the ground.

*throws snowball at bond*

snow delivery service

[moosanova]

Hmm..... I hope your right. If this warm front develops then we could get no snow at all. What do you think about the warm front pat?

It all depends on where the LOW asociated with this storm tracks to.....

1. If it goes ashore north of long beach, all we see is a snow/rain mix at best.

2. If it goes ashore Ocean Shores north, all we see is rain.

3. If it goes ashore anywhere south of Long Beach, then all we see is SNOW and lots of it for almost 30 hrs before the trnsition to all rain.....

i myself am hoping for option 3 as it would give downtown seattle close to 8 inches with other areas... I.E. on higher hills and further north even more snow.....

I will know more by tomorrow mid-afternoon and especially Saturday morning because it is at that point i will know for certain what will happen.....

SO STAY TUNED !!!!!

~ Patrick

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Cool! Thanks for updating! Is the low in place still developing?

[moosanova]

:slob: Cool! Thanks for updating! Is the low in place still developing?

Yea, but the models are all over the place with it this morning....

One model says it's going to come in too far north for anyone to see snow.

Another models says it's going to come in too far south prolonging our cold weather and eventually giving us snow late sunday afternoon....

and yet another model says it will come ashore near ocean shores which would mean that we would only see about 2 hrs of snow before it transitions to all rain and warms up by about 15-20 degrees in 12 hours !!!!

Man i hate being a meteorologist somedays.....

This type of S**T gives me headaches !!!!!

[alexjon]

I'm hoping for a massive blob of snow to fall on us.

That'd be fun! I haven't had a good snow day in... well, it's only been 10 months, but still

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Hey Moos, temps are dropping steady, currently 35 on the West Side. Any more news on this system?

[James Bond Agent 007]

Yeah, where's my snow, dammit. :order:

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

lol bond. Tomorrow.

[moosanova]

lol bond. Tomorrow.

The way it stands now......'

We look to receive very minimal amounts.......

Close to the water... Trace up to 2 inches

Away from the water a couple miles 1-3 inches and hills higher than 500 feet 2-4 inches...

It will all turn to rain by late saturday night very early Sunday morning.

Sorry kids this event is not looking good for decent snow this time around. However at this point next weekend is as colder air is slated to return and be in place longer thus increasing our chances of more widespread and more prolonged snow.

Sorry !!!

~ Patrick

[James Bond Agent 007]

The way it stands now......'

We look to receive very minimal amounts.......

Close to the water... Trace up to 2 inches

Away from the water a couple miles 1-3 inches and hills higher than 500 feet 2-4 inches...

It will all turn to rain by late saturday night very early Sunday morning.

Sorry kids this event is not looking good for decent snow this time around. However at this point next weekend is as colder air is slated to return and be in place longer thus increasing our chances of more widespread and more prolonged snow.

Sorry !!!

~ Patrick
I hate you.

You're fired!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2007/05/16/wtrump16.jpg

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Ugggh. Oh well.

[alexjon]

Yeah, where's my snow, dammit. :order:

moosa took it away from you for being a brat, sorry.

[moosanova]

Ok guys.... i have some good news......

Right now, there is is moisture associated with an upper low off our caost that is being spun up from the south right now....

Areas to our immediate South and West are reporting snow and some of it IS HEAVY !!!!

Hoquiam at 1053am was reporting heavy snow and close to 2 inches on the ground..... it is still currently snowing there....

Snow is also being reported in areas south and west of Tacoma as of right now ( 1134am ) Saturday Dec. 1st.....

This precipitation is ahead of an upper low off our coast that will steadily increase as the day wears on....

The National Weather Service has issued a Snow Advisory for ALL of Western Washington until at least Midnight Tonight and they are calling for at least 4 inches Everywhere before it begins to turn to all rain......

However...... with the evaporative cooling that is occuring with this precipitation as it falls in the form of snow is also preventing temps from rising to quickly and thus i am in fair agreement with others that we may have snow that sticks around until possibly early to mid morning tomorrow ( Sunday ) !!!!

The National Weather Service is also aware of this new feature and will watch it closely as will i as any change in wind direction or lack of warm advection could continue the snow for hours until the warm air Finally DOES turn all the snow to rain......


So be prepared for at the very minimum.... 2 inches near the water..... but if you're up in elevation at all or further away from the water, you could easily see up wards of possibly 6-7 inches in some of the heaviest bands of precipitation.....

Have Fun......


Oh and by the way..... next weekend also looks to throw a possibly even bigger encounter with snow our way !!!!

this is NOT definite at all right now.... but that is what the current models are showing.....


~ Patrick

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Good! But the temperatures are quite high, upper 30s. Will they drop or remain constant?

[arbeiter]

I'm not in fair agreement... as long as it's still above 40 in places like Renton like it is now, I don't see how it's possible...

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

^ Oh contrare. Everywhere is reporting snow. West Seattle has a bout 1 inch of snow on the grass and other colder surfaces, with slush and snow starting to accumulate on the side streets. Moos, you were right. How long do you now expect this to last?

[arbeiter]

^ Oh contrare. Everywhere is reporting snow. West Seattle has a bout 1 inch of snow on the grass and other colder surfaces, with slush and snow starting to accumulate on the side streets. Moos, you were right. How long do you now expect this to last?

Au contraire, you mean.

I was just not in agreement that we'd have 3+ inches of accumulation. Then again I live 2 blocks from Puget Sound.

[alexjon]

Madison Valley is getting hammered

[James Bond Agent 007]

Right now in Issaquah it's snowing pretty hard (with some rain mixed in) but it's not sticking.

I'm pissed. I want my money back. :mad:

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

LOL. It's a wintry mix here in West Seattle. All of its melting. :(

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

So what next moos?

[Aleks]

I like snow. It snow here!!

I took like 200 pictures today! Too bad it won't stay until Monday. :(

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

It's snowing hard in West Seattle right now!!!

[alexjon]

It was snowing heavily early in the morning, and then it wasn't

There is still plenty of snow on the ground in the Madison Valley

[Black Box]

The snow was beautiful.

[moosanova]

So what next moos?

What happens next is that we will grdually warm up have all the precip. change to all rain by this afternoon and it will be heavy, compund that with numerous watches and warnings over the area and we are in for the following over the next day/ day and a half......

here's just a summary as i am very busy with all the models and various amts. of data for the next week.

Heavy rain, winds picking up along the coast and NW interior.....

Still some uncertainty wether the Central sound will join in on the wind, as of right now that looks to be a NO.... but the wind event is still a day out....

Hurricane force winds are almost certain along the coast with the headlands having sustained winds 45-65 with gusts to 90 possible....

Flood watch over all of W. washington right now although i anticipate that this will be upgraded to a warning by this evening.

Add to that the fact the Mts. are expected to amass 2-3 feet of snow until monday when it turns to heavy rain and melt thus compounding our flooding potential here in the lowlands.

and if the models show a possible wind event for us on monday, we could be in for a very Bad 2/ 2.5 days to come......

Things will calm considerably as we approach mid-week but then the NAM and GFS models show us flirting with snow again late next weekend as Snow Levels plummet once again to between 500 and 1000 feet !!!!

SO STAY TUNED !!!!

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Cool! I can't wait!

[James Bond Agent 007]

Yay, another wind/rain storm. :(

All I can say is, I hope my power doesn't go off for 3 days like it did last year. :(

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Lol. I can gladly say my power was only out last year for about an hour. lol. I totally lucked out.

[alexjon]

Anyone get washed away? :(

[arbeiter]

They just did an inclement weather alert at my office.

Lucky for me I am on a hilltop apartment on the 3rd floor.

[James Bond Agent 007]

I live around Issaquah Creek. As usual when these storms happen, it's flooding up the kazoo.

[moosanova]

Statewide State of Emergency now in Effect.....

Major Flooding occuring almost everywhere in W. Washington....

Many Roads either washed out or completely impassable...

Winds Causing major Damage in Grays Harbor County....

At Least 3 Offshore Bouys lost to 70+ foot waves

Unconfirmed report of at least 3 fatalities due to storm.....

Power out to almost all immediate coastal communities.....

Power not to be restored for possibly a week in coastal areas....

At least 3 major Avalanches near Snoqualmie pass.....

Hwy 2 ( near Stevens Pass ) completely impassable until at least 4 am tomorrow.....

I-5 just north of Chehalis has only 1 NB lane operational and it is possible that the entire freeway ( both directions ) may have to be closed completely as water levels rise and make travel impossible !!!

2nd Wettest Day in Seattle History ( wettest Day was Oct 20th 2003 )

So needless to say the last 24-48 hrs have been a time to remember.....


Oh and by the way, This weekend looks to turn cold and possibly Snowy again !!!!!

[alexjon]

I haven't been home yet; I wonder if the MadVal is flooding or not.

[arbeiter]

it's weird, i have noticed none of this inclement weather. i mean, it's been raining, but everything seems normal in central seattle. no flooding or nothing - just a little bit of puddling near the sidewalks.

[moosanova]

Upate:

Hwy 2 between Baring and Stevens Pass now confirmed Closed indefinitely due to at least 50 different mudslides of varying degree !!!!!

[arbeiter]

Upate:

Hwy 2 between Baring and Stevens Pass now confirmed Closed indefinitely due to at least 50 different mudslides of varying degree !!!!!

My grandparents live in Leavenworth right off of 2. Guess they won't be visiting unexpectedly!

[James Bond Agent 007]

Also, I-5 south of Olympia is closed for about 3 days:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004049986_webcommute03m.html

[James Bond Agent 007]

Chehalis.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/ABPub/2007/12/04/2004052543.jpg

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

Wow! I've been through Cheahlis when I-5 has flooded, but not this much. That's an amazing picture! How many feet of water do they have?

[moosanova]

Wow! I've been through Cheahlis when I-5 has flooded, but not this much. That's an amazing picture! How many feet of water do they have?

At it's highest point..... the water level over I-5 is 15 feet high......

And i'm quoting Paula Hammond directly here....... ( Transportation Secretary )

We are anticipating opening the freeway on Thursday afternoon but it could possibly be closed until Saturday at the very latest........

Meanwhile.... Trucks transporting Goods Via I-5 are having to take a 276 mile detour as a result of the I-5 closure and an estimated 4-5 Million dollars in commerce a day is being lost in Washington alone due to the flooding.....

[alexjon]

Overheard an argument in the building's restaurant-- when's the next round of snow? I want to be able to break the next one up!

[arbeiter]

Overheard an argument in the building's restaurant-- when's the next round of snow? I want to be able to break the next one up!

Your building in the CD has a restaurant on the ground floor?

[alexjon]

lol, no, at work.

Though if I lived in one of the apartment buildings on madison, I could KINDA say so, what with the grocery store delis.

But I don't

[arbeiter]

lol, no, at work.

Though if I lived in one of the apartment buildings on madison, I could KINDA say so, what with the grocery store delis.

But I don't

true. i was thinking you lived above trader joe's or something. i grew up in madison park, so imagine my shock when i arrived here this spring and saw the co-op, trader joes and safeway in place of chicken joints and abandoned lots.

[alexjon]

I'm underwhelmed by the Co-Op. It's like Whole Foods without variety.

[arbeiter]

I'm underwhelmed by the Co-Op. It's like Whole Foods without variety.

I never set foot in it, I'm surprised it remains in business. I like the idea of co-ops, but TJ's is TJ's.

[alexjon]

I never set foot in it, I'm surprised it remains in business. I like the idea of co-ops, but TJ's is TJ's.

That TJ's is the center of the Seattle Ursoverse.

[WESTSEATTLEGUY]

More snow tomorrow night????