[Diddle E Squat]

Quite a change for what was for years the fastest growing state in real numbers.

---------------------------------------------

By Paul Owers
South Florida Sun-Sentinel

For the first time in 30 years, United Van Lines Inc. says it moved more people out of Florida than in, and analysts see that as a sign that consumers are looking elsewhere for a cheaper slice of life.

The nation's largest moving company reported 16,212 inbound shipments to Florida last year and 17,019 outbound shipments. United moved more people to Florida in each year from 1999 to 2004, but the number of inbound moves fell in 2005, spokeswoman Jennifer Bonham said.

The study isn't scientific, but it does underscore a recent trend in which fed-up Floridians are moving to other parts of the country, in part to escape rising property taxes and insurance rates.

United's report shows that North Carolina, Oregon and South Carolina were the top destination states in 2006. Michigan, hit hard by automobile industry layoffs, North Dakota and New Jersey were the states that saw the most people leave.

The housing boom brought more people to the Sunshine State at the start of the decade, but the run-up in home values during the past five years sent property-tax rates soaring. Many residents now say they can't afford to move elsewhere in Florida because of the huge hit they'd take on taxes.

What's more, busy hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005 led to massive rate hikes from the state's largest home insurance companies.

"It all just pushed us past the breaking point," David Levin, a Delray Beach-based housing consultant, said Wednesday....


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Full article:

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-zmoving11jan11,0,5692809.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

[brickell]

People are leaving, especially the older people, but overall, growth is still strong. We're replacing retiree villages with international commerce centers. Sounds like a fair trade to me.

[bobdreamz]

could be a trend or just a one time blip. United Van Lines shipped a whopping difference of 807 outbound shipments last year. Over 1,000 people move to Florida each day. I wouldn't put much emphasis on their numbers.

[Bruin Brain]

I left Florida last month, and I had never lived anywhere but.

It wasn't at all because of property taxes or insurance rates, and I didn't use United. :koko: Thank you, useless article! :D

Though it's true that I moved to a much less costly locale. I'm renting a 680 sq ft, 2 bedroom apartment for $425/mo. :banana: Of course, I'm at ground zero for the next New Madrid Seismic Zone event, and I'm in a URM bldg. :sly:

[brickell]

For better or worse . . .

Florida 2060
Florida Population and Developed Land Projected to Double Over Next 50 Years
http://www.1000friendsofflorida.org/planning/2060.asp

[bobdreamz]

that's kind of scary to think about Brickell...so by 2060 we will have California's current popualation but on about a third of it's land size!

[jaxg8r1]

I left in 05 and moved to Oregon....
Although I hardly consider it reasonable to think that FL will slow down too much...There is plenty of developable land inland that is much lower in price than the coastal property people naturally associate with Florida.

[DJM19]

that's kind of scary to think about Brickell...so by 2060 we will have California's current popualation but on about a third of it's land size!

Neither state could possibly use all of its land. You have to look at developed area to see how much of Florida will fill up.

[MayorOfChicago]

EXODUS? That's a little harsh to say when you're dealing with a net of 807 families moving out of Florida, only looking at one moving company.



I can't imagine 36 million people. They'd better start building more roads, it's already a mess down there. I've been on the west side down by Naples/Marco Island/Ft. Myers quite a few times, and each year the relaxation and natural beauty of it all is diminished just a little more by the rampant traffic and crowds of people.

I want quiet, palm trees, beaches, no traffic, relaxation. I guess this is what happens when a couple million other people have the same idea.

[mhays]

The 16,200 vs 17,000 isn't just about 800. Just like a CNN poll isn't just about 1,600 votes vs. 1,400 votes. It's an indicator.

Of course you've got to know the limitations of your indicator. For example, the moving company is hired mostly by people with more money. So the article probably says more about people in the upper 1/3 of the income spectrum than the lower 1/3.

[Jasonhouse]

that's kind of scary to think about Brickell...so by 2060 we will have California's current popualation but on about a third of it's land size!
So we'll still be about half as dense as the typical European country.

[jaxg8r1]

So we'll still be about half as dense as the typical European country.

Actually, that would put Florida around 670 per sq mile....slightly higher than the current UK and Germany, but significantly higher than Italy Poland France Spain, etc...

Not that Im nitpicking...

[BTinSF]

People are leaving, especially the older people, but overall, growth is still strong. We're replacing retiree villages with international commerce centers. Sounds like a fair trade to me.

I used to be a Floridian. I lived there for 10 years in the 70's and 80's and did my medical training at UF in Gainesville. I loved Florida back then--mostly for its natural beauty. My family still lives there so I visit every year and I've seen the changes. I think it has and will continue to have ONE "international commerce center" (Miami) and perhaps one of two other regional "commerce centers" (Orlando, Jacksonville, maybe Tampa). The rest is classic suburban sprawl which is well on the way to eliminating what I loved about the place. Cap that with the fact that it used to be an inexpensive place to live and own a home but is no more (not only the cost of the home but the taxes and especially the insurance) and I can understand why its attractiveness is diminishing. I know I have considered, now that I'm fully retired, moving back, but after my most recent visit (got back night before last--while there, visited my old house in Winter Park near Orlando), I just can't see it even though, with the profits from high-appreciated homes in San Francisco and southern Arizona I could still afford a very nice place there.

I think that, if Florida is lucky, it will gradually become the playground of the wealthy who can afford the most attractive coastal property and also afford to self-insure or to absorb the loss if more hurricanes come. Such folks will also have ways to avoid the horrible traffic snarls that are I-95, I-4 and I-75 (helicopters, private planes, chauffeurs and the ability to have much of what they need brought to them).

But for average folks, it IS getting less attractive and will be much less so unless the state finds a way to make homeowners' policies that cover hurricane risks affordable.

[brickell]

I lived in Winter Park myself for a while. Beautiful city. I agree that a lot is being lost, but I blame that on the politicians, not the growth. There's still an awful lot of empty space just waiting to be built on. Whether we do it intelligently or not is still not known.

As for the playground for the wealthy, that sounds a lot like California. They seem to be doing rather well for themselves in spite of that.

[brian_b]

I think that, if Florida is lucky, it will gradually become the playground of the wealthy who can afford the most attractive coastal property and also afford to self-insure or to absorb the loss if more hurricanes come. Such folks will also have ways to avoid the horrible traffic snarls that are I-95, I-4 and I-75 (helicopters, private planes, chauffeurs and the ability to have much of what they need brought to them).


It's probably a lot easier to self-insure your home if you build it to withstand a hurricane. How much extra did this house cost instead of a normal house?

http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/d/16919-2/18kd207-long-beach-mississippi

The page link if that photo doesn't hotlink:
http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/biloxi_mississippi/18kd207-long-beach-mississippi.html?g2_imageViewsIndex=1

[MayorOfChicago]

^

True, but look what they wake up to every morning.

If at least half the homes in your area don't build like that, you're going to be pretty depressed to come home every day.

[brickell]

Someone has this quote as their sig on the forum. I think it fits.

It's so crowded nobody goes there anymore - Yogi Berra

There's a reason why home prices have gone through the roof. There's a reason why sprawl has continued unabated. There's a reason the Condo market is booming. It's the people and they keep moving here. It's causing a lot of people to wax about the good old days, and quite a few of them to move, but this is nothing new. I think the media is just looking for them more often.

[BTinSF]

As for the playground for the wealthy, that sounds a lot like California. They seem to be doing rather well for themselves in spite of that.

I was thinking more specifically of my current home, San Francisco, where I could not afford to live if I had not bought a condo in 1982. At least the state created an agency, the California Earthquake Authority, to provide earthquake insurance at somewhat (yes, some would argue that it's not) affordable rates.

[BTinSF]

It's probably a lot easier to self-insure your home if you build it to withstand a hurricane.

Good question and that's one detererent for me to moving back. If I did, I think I would want a custom-built "hurricane-proof" home but, frankly, I don't want to go through all the hassle to design and build. Unlike earthquakes, I do think it's possible to build structures at reasonable cost to withstand hurricanes. You probably have to forgo the shorefront locations, though, but I could be happy living on a lake or maybe the St. John's River.

[Bruin Brain]

There's still an awful lot of empty space just waiting to be built on.

Are you reffering to Florida's rural and natural areas? If so, and if I'm not misinterpreting, then I'm somewhat offended by this statement. Like BTinSF, I, too, most love what is most threatened by Florida's uncontrolled, outward growth. Rural Florida is my roots, my family, my heritage. Natural Florida was my playground, my place for reflection. What other people see in that state when they choose to move there, it's not what I loved about the place. Call it a conflict of interest. I know it's probably a minority of Floridians or former Floridians that feel this way, but I think it's an important perspective to acknowledge, because it's this kind of sentiment that has the power to keep Florida from building itself to death.

The peninsula isn't going to get any bigger, its natural resources any more abundant, so limits must be set! I think some of us would just rather see them sooner than later. It's true growth and demand is nothing new in this state, but with each passing decade, as sprawl becomes a higher and higher percentage of this land's limited, physical area, concerns for this land's future are going to rise exponentially. Expect the media to reflect this.

My :2cents:

[brickell]

I'm no carpet-bagger. As a life long floridian, I feel the same way. I spent a good deal of my formidable years amongst the cow pastures and orange groves of florida's "heartland". I despise the sprawl as much as anybody, but rowth is an industry in Florida and I don't know what the state would be without it. Any big restrictions on growth would only cause prices to go further skyward. I'd like to stay here if I can, but I can barely afford it now.

I also believe there's good "sprawl". There are areas where we can build. The 17 and 27 corridors for instance, have many old town centers that are just begging for redevelopment; Lake Wales, Frostproof, Arcadia. I've heard from more than a couple of people that Palatka and it's riverfront setting are poised for boom. The US1 corridor in south florida could go much denser (Hollywood, Delray). The Daytona area in particular with it's satellite town cetners (New Smyrna, Ormond Beach, Ponce Inlet) could use a fresh infusion of development. Of course I don't want 20 new Orlando's scarring the state, but I think we do have the room and most importantly I think we can still preserve a lot of that old Florida if we do it correctly.

What I think bother's me most is the people that complain about change just for the sake of it. They don't like sprawl, they don't like condo's, they don't like trains, they don't like anything except the way it was in 1950 or whenever it was they moved here, when eggs were 2cents, you could have the whole beach to yourself, and everybody spoke english. Some things will change for the better and some for the worst, but constantly complaining about everything will not get us anywhere. when they write these articles these are the people they look for.

(last paragraph not directed at anyone here, just on general conversations with people.)

[Diddle E Squat]

Why was this thread banished from the "City Discussion" thread to this useless "US" section that nobody uses? Look how few posts have been started here, the users are voting and they don't care for this section. This thread is about a change in the demographic patterns that affect many cities in several states and regions, and certainly is more relevant to city discussions than "Does Your Town Have a Groovy Boat Ride?"

[brickell]

Agreed. This is where threads come to die. A shame too.

[BTinSF]

The Daytona area in particular with it's satellite town cetners (New Smyrna, Ormond Beach, Ponce Inlet) could use a fresh infusion of development.

OMG, don't let my Mom hear you say that. The rest of my family lives in Ormond Beach and likes it just the way it is, thanks. Say the word "condo" and you will get curses out of most of them. But I do think that the core of Daytona Beach could be much more dense and Miami-like--and less sleazy. To get that way comfortably, though, I think some other things about Florida will have to change dramatically. I'm thinking if the utter dependence on the automobile, for one thing. I read elsewhere about new commuter rail in Orange County and that's a very good thing. But Florida should build high-speed rail in the medians of I-4 connecting Tampa, Orlando and Daytona, and the Florida Turnpike connecting Orlando and Miami (and the east-west I-4 route). And Daytona itself, because it's a pretty narrow north-south strip, is perfect for light rail up and down A1A.

Palatka, by the way, is where I think I'd live if I moved back to FL and I was hoping nobody else had even heard of it.

[brickell]

My mom is in New Smyrna and feels a similar way. I can't say that I blame them considering that most of the development lately has been water front "luxury". Taking away their views and access. They're afraid of becoming like South Florida, yet look towards Orlando as some magical wonderland.

[Lost Island]

This thread is about a change in the demographic patterns that affect many cities in several states and regions, and certainly is more relevant to city discussions than "Does Your Town Have a Groovy Boat Ride?"

:haha:

Almost missed this section, too...scrolled right by in the blink of an eye. :D

[Jasonhouse]

People who complain about Florida being overpopulated are simply clueless.

Florida is not overpopulated... not by a long shot... what Florida is however, is SPRAWLED.

[Bruin Brain]

Jason, unless, of course, you can come up with a definition of "overpopulation" that everyone will agree on (give it a shot), then it's too subjective to be calling people clueless.

[MayorOfChicago]

Agreed. This is where threads come to die. A shame too.

Ha, that's exactly what I've always thought. Only time I ever end up here is if I get redirected from somewhere else.

[bobdreamz]

Broward's soaring costs have many leaving home
In 2006, more people left Broward County than moved in from other states. High costs were blamed.
BY LISA ARTHUR, TIM HENDERSON AND ROBERTO SANTIAGO
larthur@MiamiHerald.com

A steady influx of people relocating from throughout the nation fueled Broward's population growth for years, making it one of the country's fastest-growing counties.

But that trend reversed itself last year, according to a census report released today. It found about 18,000 more people left Broward than moved in from other states.

The new numbers confirm what many living in South Florida already know, say demographers and economists: The spiraling cost of living is making the region a less attractive place to live.

''Housing costs are out of whack, and there isn't an acceptable balance between cost of living and incomes here right now,'' said Bill Leonard, senior planner for Broward County.

To be sure, Broward and Miami-Dade County, which has been experiencing a net loss in domestic migration for decades, are still growing -- albeit slowly. But increases are being driven by newborns and foreign immigrants -- not newcomers from other states, according to census estimates.

That's a change for Broward, but experts say it's likely a temporary hiccup.

''I don't see this being a permanent tanking of South Florida; this is happening in other places around the country, too,'' said Richard Ogburn, assistant to the director of research and budget at the South Florida Regional Planning Council.

His prediction: ``Either salaries here will become more consistent with housing costs, or the housing cost structure will collapse, correct and we'll go back to where things are sustainable on what people earn here.''

LOWER NET GAIN

Statewide, the new census report shows that a net gain in people moving from other states is lower than last year's. From 2004 to 2005, the state had a net gain of 262,000; from 2005 to 2006, it was less than 166,000. But more than half of the decrease comes from net losses in Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

The history of domestic net losses in Miami-Dade, hovering around 30,000 each year since 2001, has been attributed to the county's status as a gateway for immigrants. The same demographic story may become more pronounced in Broward, too.

''We've long understood Miami-Dade and Broward are points of entry, but they are also flow-through counties, with lots of immigrants moving on after getting their feet on the ground here,'' Ogburn said. ``What is international migration one year can be domestic migration the next.''

LONG-TERM TREND?

But he and others stress that it's premature to assume any long-term trend in Broward, though more and more anecdotal evidence that the county is becoming less attractive has emerged over the past two years.

Consider:

• Many Broward businesses and local governments have raised concerns about housing costs driving out experienced workers and making it difficult to attract new workers to South Florida.

• Broward school officials have reported a decline in enrollment in recent years. This in a district that only a decade ago had kids sitting on floors for lack of desks and could not bring in portable classrooms fast enough to accommodate the flood of new students.

''It's an economic shift,'' said Jill Young, a demographer with Broward schools, which had about 10,000 fewer students in an annual October head count than it did two years earlier. ``People are sill coming here, but can they afford to come with children? I know we don't see a lot of kids coming out of all the new townhomes and condos.''

PROPERTY TAX CRISIS

Keeping South Florida attractive to newcomers may depend on how the Florida Legislature resolves the state's property tax crisis, says Tony Villamil, an economist with the Coral Gables-based Washington Economics Group and chairman of the Beacon Council's Economic Roundtable.

He said the property tax structure not only affects the homeowner's pocketbook, but also discourages affordable-housing construction. County assessors widely interpret Florida law as requiring property to be taxed on its best and highest use.

''When you do that, it means you have to build up and do luxury instead of doing affordable or smaller apartment buildings to make an after-tax profit,'' Villamil said.

A simple change in state law to tax on actual use and income a rental property generates, for instance, would encourage developers to build affordable apartments and condos.

''There certainly is a demand out there for more affordable and reasonably priced real estate,'' Villamil said.

[rickthomas45]

My wife and I moved to Florida in 2003 to start a business, which we finally got around to doing in 2004. Unfortunately after gas prices soared and the hurricanes drove away our customers, we found that our business could no longer make it. At the very beginning of 2007, after having a baby in November, we moved back to our original home, Tennessee. The cost of living here is so much cheaper. We went from a small 2 bedroom townhome rental at $850 month, with bad a bad AC (so it was really hot, all the time), to a 5 bedroom home that we now own with a monthly mortgage of only $766and we are not hot anymore or crammed into a small place. It is amazing how much happier we are now.

[SteveD]

Why was this thread banished from the "City Discussion" thread to this useless "US" section that nobody uses? Look how few posts have been started here, the users are voting and they don't care for this section. This thread is about a change in the demographic patterns that affect many cities in several states and regions, and certainly is more relevant to city discussions than "Does Your Town Have a Groovy Boat Ride?"

Agreed. I don't understand why my thread about U.S. population, which is generating nothing but comments about individual cities and metros, was moved here too. It was getting rapid response and multiple views over in city discussions and is withering away over here.