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fredstrom
Jan 13, 2007, 8:12 PM
Population marker: Sioux Falls hits 148,000
Next trend is east-side growth as city expands on a pace for 187,000 by 2015

By Sam Burrish
sburrish@argusleader.com
Published: January 10, 2007
Last year, Sioux Falls grew the equivalent of annexing Canton.

At that rate, the population will hit 150,000 this year. And by 2015, expect 187,000.

The climbing figures come as the City Planning Office compiles its annual report on growth and development, to be released later this month.

The growth continues a 2.5 percent annual boost Sioux Falls has enjoyed for the past decade.

While too soon to analyze business, housing and other trends that emerged in the past year, authorities say growth's momentum continues from careful planning and key economic events decades ago.

As of Dec. 31, Sioux Falls' estimated population was 148,000, according to the city.

Long-range projections suggest in 2025 about 221,000 people will call Sioux Falls home.

The city estimates consider factors including past housing trends, new building permits, vacancy rates and property demolition.

"We develop Canton in Sioux Falls each year," said Jeff Schmitt, assistant planning director for the city. "It's not just the people who move to town."

Surrounding that growth figure are the stores, restaurants, schools and services to support those 3,500 people.

Future growth will extend the city's east side, as development exhausts available sewer lines and other infrastructure in the southern and northwest areas, Schmitt said.

In the past year, Sioux Falls gained 1,582 housing units. The city counts a single-family house as one unit, a duplex as two units. That's a 12,012-unit increase since the 2000 census, totaling 63,692 units in the city.

The city isn't finished preparing the 2006 analysis, but Schmitt said a string of reports stretching back more than a decade has yielded consistent results. About one-third of incoming residents move from the surrounding six-county area, one-third from the tri-state area and the rest from elsewhere in the country, he said.

"Sioux Falls is in a virtuous cycle," said Ralph Brown, emeritus professor of economics at the University of South Dakota.

Key to today's growth are three past events, Brown said. The first began in the mid-1970s, when the state established a four-year medical school in Vermillion. The intent was to train more doctors for rural health care, but many graduates flocked to Sioux Falls, helping transform the city into a regional medical hub.

Other businesses and related industries also have flourished. In the early 1980s, Citibank relocated to Sioux Falls and attracted other credit card and call center businesses, which continues as a niche today.

Third is business diversification and recruitment beginning in the late 1980s with Forward Sioux Falls, he said.

His findings are part of a 2004 study published in the South Dakota Business Review, which explored why Sioux Falls' growth took off in the past 30 years while Sioux City, Iowa, has remained stagnant.

Although the benchmark 150,000 might earn Sioux Falls a bigger dot on the map, continued growth depends on further diversifying business, said Dan Hindbjorgen of the Sioux Falls Development Foundation. The challenge remains attracting businesses with a highly skilled work force that grows with demand, he said.
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My fiance and I will count ourselves among the newcomers this next year. It's interesting to me that Sioux Falls has the highest metropolitan growth rate among non-sunbelt cities. In every aspect, we've been impressed with the city and how well it's doing. Thier focus on parks and recreation is a big hit for us. It will be interesting to see if Sioux Falls' growth will continue.

SmileyBoy
Jan 13, 2007, 10:25 PM
I really wish Fargo (and other cities in the F-M area) could do annual pop. estimates by the city like Sioux Falls does. I'm hearing numbers ranging anywhere from 95,000 to 103,000 for Fargo for the most recent number. The only city that does it in F-M is West Fargo, and their latest number is about 22,000 for 2005. I heard Moorhead is over 39,000, and that came from an annual crime report. But I had to dig and dig to find that figure. I have no idea if Fargo, Moorhead and Dilworth, etc. either keep it a secret, or don't do it at all. Cause we know the annual Census estimates are full of crap. Hell, Grand Forks does it too. I'll have to ask someone in the know if they could start doing that, because it's good to have that kind of thing.

Anyway, good to know SF is growing fast. The I-29 corridor seems to be growing fast as a whole. I heard F-M is at about 170,000 total for the urban area. I also heard Grand Forks is starting to grow again. I think the Eastern Dakotas are one of the best kept secrets in the nation as far as quality of living.

Looks like Fargo-Moorhead and Sioux Falls are starting to compete for a lot of business, too. Usually that kind of competition means both cities will grow fast. ;)

sodak
Jan 13, 2007, 10:51 PM
Ya I saw that article too. I've been in Sioux Falls for the past 5 years or so. I really like this town, and it would take an huge bump in pay to make me leave. The only thing SF could do better on is the bar scene for people 20-30 years old. The parks thing is killer though, i love the trails on the river loop.

DeadManWalking
Jan 16, 2007, 12:45 AM
I don't like long range growth estimates. Even the fastest growing places reach a peak somewhere. Perhaps all the land inside the city limits will be built out, perhaps people will find cheaper housing in a neighboring city, perhaps the region can not support any more people, but it is not realistic to believe that growth will continue at the same rate.

sodak
Jan 16, 2007, 12:57 AM
Maybe. In larger metro areas that is certainly true. When other suburbs can hem in growth of the central city or other suburbs. In Sioux Falls' case however, that reality won't exist for another 20 years at the earliest. The growth rate of 2.5 percent per year has been constant for the past ten years and represents an increase over the decades before that. Sioux Falls in 1980 had 80,000 people.

That being said however, there are certainly unforseeable economic hiccups that can destroy anyone's most scientific projections. All in all though, Sioux Falls' growth has been remarkable stable for quite some time now.