[fflint]

I think the dense, walkable old towns full of quality architecture in the Sierra foothills--the "Gold Country"--will be the next big thing. They've got charm, tourism, and relatively cheap old Victorian homes and commercial buildings in picturesque--and more importantly, snow-free--mountain locales.

Which city or region do you think will be California's next big thing?

[Reminiscence]

I would most likely think that something away from the city, but not too far away, will be the next "developing" area. Places like Lake County a little north of the Bay Area, although El Dorado Hills and places like that around where you said are growing as well. So much for extra-urban sprawl, hmmm ...

[rs913]

Which city or region do you think will be California's next big thing?

In my Cynical World, probably more extreme exurbs ("XXXurbs"?). With housing prices getting so high and people becoming less resistant to long commutes (see: housing prices), I won't be surprised to see the I-80 corridor between Davis and Vallejo fill up with cheaply-constructed subdivisions. Other possibilities include...

* Along I-580 east of Livermore out towards Tracy/Stockton
* In San Diego: along I-15 going northeast of the area and away from the pricey beachside towns
* In L.A: Gosh, who knows?

But in my Ideal World, the next big thing is what you mentioned: attractive small-town areas with appealing architecture and well-developed "public realm" areas: downtowns, parks, etc.

[LosAngelesBeauty]

Palmdale!!!

[RAlossi]

Honestly, I foresee more inner-city/original suburbs being the new "frontier" for (re)development -- at least in LA. I can't speak for the Bay Area or Central Valley or San Diego.

Angelino Heights, Echo Park, Highland Park, and Boyle Heights are all seeing some recent attention.

[The Agonist]

I think San Bruno and So SF will be the next big thing.

[EastBayHardCore]

fflint: did you hear the commercial on the radio for this place?

http://www.saddlecreek.com/

That's what immediately came to mind when I read your post :)

[BTinSF]

I think the dense, walkable old towns full of quality architecture in the Sierra foothills--the "Gold Country"--will be the next big thing. They've got charm, tourism, and relatively cheap old Victorian homes and commercial buildings in picturesque--and more importantly, snow-free--mountain locales.

Which city or region do you think will be California's next big thing?

I don't know if you can call these places "next" because they have been hot for some time. Personally, I've had my eye on Sonora, CA for a decade or more and watched real estate prices escalate as it got more popular with retirees. And it isn't alone--a lot of these small towns, mainly the ones too far from larger cities to lure working-age people, are becoming retirement havens. But one particular town I'd put my money on that isn't too far is Marysville because it fits your description pretty well but it's also commuting range to Sacramento.

Another spot I think should be more popular than it has been--and that I predict will have its day--is Dunsmuir. It sits next door to Mt. Shasta in some gorgeous scenery and the "Coast Starlight" AMTRAK line passes right through it--and stops.

http://www.dunsmuir.com/images/history.jpg

http://www.city-data.com/cpicc/cfiles16304.jpg

[fflint]

fflint: did you hear the commercial on the radio for this place?

http://www.saddlecreek.com/

That's what immediately came to mind when I read your post :)
Nah--that's just like the kind of place my parents live. There aren't any real deals to be had there, nor much charm or urbanity. The Sacramento hillside luxury exurbs will certainly continue to be built, though, and may be the force that eventually makes revitalizing the pedestrian-oriented Gold Country downtowns economically viable--why drive an hour into Sacramento when you can enjoy fine dining in an elegant old building on a bustling street in a charming old downtown just 20 minutes away?

[fflint]

I don't know if you can call these places "next" because they have been hot for some time. Personally, I've had my eye on Sonora, CA for a decade or more and watched real estate prices escalate as it got more popular with retirees. And it isn't alone--a lot of these small towns, mainly the ones too far from larger cities to lure working-age people, are becoming retirement havens. But one particular town I'd put my money on that isn't too far is Marysville because it fits your description pretty well but it's also commuting range to Sacramento.

Another spot I think should be more popular than it has been--and that I predict will have its day--is Dunsmuir. It sits next door to Mt. Shasta in some gorgeous scenery and the "Coast Starlight" AMTRAK line passes right through it--and stops.

http://www.dunsmuir.com/images/history.jpg

http://www.city-data.com/cpicc/cfiles16304.jpg
Dunsmuir looks a little bit like Truckee.

[BTinSF]

Dunsmuir looks a little bit like Truckee.

Quite a bit except it's a lot warmer. Truckee, as I'm sure you know, sometimes records the coldest temps in the country in winter. Dunsmuir is at the foot of the mountains, not the top, so it's nowhere near that cold. Still, I considered mentioning Truckee too but hesitated based on your "snow-free" criterion (yes, Dunsmuir gets some as in the picture). These are just some of my favorite "foothill" towns.

[fflint]

Truckee's got a lot of potential, but precisely *because* of the snow.

But yeah--I'm thinking one reason people may find the Gold Country downtowns appealing, in addition to charm and good deals on quality buildings in ped-oriented areas will be the mountain setting, sans snow.

[bjornson]

Fresno, Bakersfield, & Barstow.

[ltsmotorsport]

Nah--that's just like the kind of place my parents live. There aren't any real deals to be had there, nor much charm or urbanity. The Sacramento hillside luxury exurbs will certainly continue to be built, though, and may be the force that eventually makes revitalizing the pedestrian-oriented Gold Country downtowns economically viable--why drive an hour into Sacramento when you can enjoy fine dining in an elegant old building on a bustling street in a charming old downtown just 20 minutes away?

Placerville is already seeing a lot of high end shops going in; very few really nice restaraunts though. The deal with these foothill towns right now is that the kind of thinking on this board is only found in those immediate parts of the towns, while outside is still very rural, many 5+ acre ranches and A LOT of old, backwards thinking (prejudice about many things). It's still cowboy country right outside the towns in them hills.

[Buckeye Native 001]

Its not going to be California's "next big thing" but Temecula has a small reputation as a sort of "SoCal Wine Country"

[fflint]

Placerville is already seeing a lot of high end shops going in; very few really nice restaraunts though. The deal with these foothill towns right now is that the kind of thinking on this board is only found in those immediate parts of the towns, while outside is still very rural, many 5+ acre ranches and A LOT of old, backwards thinking (prejudice about many things). It's still cowboy country right outside the towns in them hills.
I think MegaloNorCal retirees will eventually alter the dynamic in the Gold Country. But for now, you're right--these are small towns we're talking about, by California standards, and outside the touristy, historic downtowns I don't expect to see much gentrification.

[BTinSF]

^^^I'm not sure your time line and mine agree--they might--but I think what Sonoma and Napa are today, the foothill counties will be eventually. And the coastal commmunities too. The NoCal coastal tourist zone used to sort of reach a limit around Mendocino, but I think eventually gentrification on a grand scale will come to the "Lost Coast" and north to the Oregon border where it will meet a similar phenomenon slinking down from Portland.

[Reminiscence]

I've always loved the NorCal coast, the only problem is too secluded at times. Everything north of places like Lakeport and Ukiah are mostly rural until you get to about Eureka or Crescent City. However, I did think about SF's influence slowly expanding north and eventually bordering Portland's.

[WonderlandPark]

Add the Salinas Valley, those *used to be cow-towns* like King City and Gonzales are booming, and it is only just beginning there.

[fflint]

^^^I'm not sure your time line and mine agree--they might--but I think what Sonoma and Napa are today, the foothill counties will be eventually. And the coastal commmunities too. The NoCal coastal tourist zone used to sort of reach a limit around Mendocino, but I think eventually gentrification on a grand scale will come to the "Lost Coast" and north to the Oregon border where it will meet a similar phenomenon slinking down from Portland.
I liken what I hope to see happen in the Gold Country not so much to the revitalization of Napa (which totally rocks on so many levels), but more akin to what happened in Guerneville--small and historic, snow-free but in a picturesque mountain setting, a colony of many different kinds of people co-habiting on a surprisingly small scale. Whereas the Russian River mixes hippies and gays and more progressive local tourists and weekenders with people born and raised in places like Jenner, I think the Gold Country might mix retirees from Sacramento, Stockton, and the Bay Area with locals as well as some younger entrepreneurial types who might open up shops, restaurants and perhaps even companies--there are lots of fairly large second- and third-floor commercial plates in these old towns' downtown areas. They'd require significant sweat-equity, of course, and that's why I figure it might be the province of younger people--but there is sufficient infrastructure in place in many of these old towns to accomodate signficant population and job growth.

[BTinSF]

^^^You are making me wish I had gone through with purchasing that house I had under contract in Monte Rio in 1986. :rolleyes:

[rs913]

I've always loved the NorCal coast, the only problem is too secluded at times. Everything north of places like Lakeport and Ukiah are mostly rural until you get to about Eureka or Crescent City. However, I did think about SF's influence slowly expanding north and eventually bordering Portland's.

As long as the coast (or even just the close-in parts like Marin) don't ever become all tacky and cheap and over-developed like NJ and FL, with every square inch of shore covered, we're cool.

[Ronin]

Redding - the northernmost part of the "Central Valley," and is close to world class outdoor recreation

[Alta California]

The Bay Area trustfund babies will rape the last bit of authenticity of the California's rural Sierras by turning it into mini Jackson Holes, pricing out the natives, and turning every other businesses into a wine & cheese store. If you think bringing in infrastructure to suburbs were expensive, try building a highway for the Hummer hybrids through mountain passes. The Bay Area is such a progressive urban place, possibly the most perfect place on earth, why can't its people stay there?

Coachella Valley will be (it probably is already) the next big thing. Sen. Boxer bought a home there. Gerald Ford, uhm, died there but hats-off to him for putting the desert back on the map. The Palm Springs International Film Fest is the largest of its kind. Of course, the Coachella music festival. Diversity is real with the population split between whites and Latinos. And you know what? Not a Whole Foods in sight, pretty remarkable for a well-off area of half-a-million people. No Peet's, two Trader Joe's, one In-N-out, zero Pinkberry's, one each of the bookstore chains, and the spectacle of having THREE Walmart Supercenters (I highly recommend visiting one...it's an experience).

[BTinSF]

Coachella Valley will be (it probably is already) the next big thing. Sen. Boxer bought a home there. Gerald Ford, uhm, died there

Palm Springs was a celebrity resort in the 50's, for Heaven sake. That makes it the big thing before the last big thing:

http://www.desertmodernism.com/pcfranksinatra.JPG

[Alta California]

Palm Springs was a celebrity resort in the 50's, for Heaven sake. That makes it the big thing before the last big thing:

http://www.desertmodernism.com/pcfranksinatra.JPG

Ahhh, but see I didn't mention Palm Springs. Coachella Valley is about the cities east of Palm Springs (PD, Rancho, Indio, Coachella, La Quinta) that are heretofore haven't enjoyed the limelight. These places are booming not just in population but in prestige. PS actually has a reputation of being a laggard saddled with being furthest to the west from the main population centers and having an unattractive mix of retirees and single men.

[BTinSF]

I guess the next big thing isn't so different or so far from the last big thing:

Sonoma on the verge
As wineries, restaurants court well-heeled visitors, will Sonoma become the next Napa?

Tina Caputo, Special to The Chronicle
Friday, February 16, 2007

Sixth-generation vintner Jeff Bundschu doesn't remember a time the town of Sonoma wasn't a tourist attraction. Raised on his family's Gundlach Bundschu winery estate in Sonoma, 38-year-old Bundschu has spent his whole life observing an ever-changing stream of visitors to his hometown.

"Early on, Sonoma drew people with its culture and history -- its quaint and historic square, Jack London's home," Bundschu says. "Foodwise, our two cheesemakers and the French bakery were the extent of the culinary scene. Restaurants were all geared toward locals, and the winery tasting rooms were fringe benefits."

As the public's interest shifted toward wine in the '80s and '90s, wineries became Sonoma County's main attraction. But even then, Bundschu says, visitors were content to hop indiscriminately from one tasting room to the next.

A decade later, it's a different scene. Sonoma County towns like Healdsburg and Sonoma are gradually shifting from down-home to upmarket, and visitors are seeking out increasingly high-end wineries, restaurants and hotels with full-service spas.

But as Sonoma County continues its upscale trajectory, residents and vintners fear it's in danger of losing its identity. Is Sonoma County, with its rural charm and eccentric personalities, destined to become the new Napa?

Napa Valley has long looked down on its less sophisticated country cousin, and until recently, Sonoma seemed to accept and even embrace its reputation as a funky destination. But according to regional associations like Sonoma County Vintners (SCV) and the Sonoma County Tourism Bureau (SCTB), who cater to the nearly 2 million tourists that visit the county each year, Sonoma is now making a conscious effort to promote itself as a luxury destination on par with Napa -- and the shift in direction seems to be paying off.

Visits to Sonoma wineries increased by almost 20 percent in 2005, according to the wine industry's annual VinQuest survey, and that number is expected to climb even higher when 2006 figures are released.

"Napa's really done an excellent job of going after the high-end, luxury traveler," says tourism bureau director Ken Fischang. "We have that high-end traveler experience, but then we also have everything else in between. Napa is exclusive; Sonoma is all-inclusive."

While many Napa wineries, such as Rubicon Estate, are trying to weed out entry-level tour bus crowds by charging $25 and up for tastings, Sonoma vintners are expanding their offerings to include high-end reserve tastings and elaborate food pairings.

"I think that people in Sonoma have realized that they were leaving a lot on the table by only cultivating this down-home farmer image," says Sonoma County Vintners spokesman Phil Bilodeau.

J Vineyards & Winery started the trend in 1999 with the opening of its Healdsburg visitor center. Tasting bar patrons now pay $20 for a flight of J wines, each paired with a sophisticated snack. In 2004, J Vineyards took the concept a step further with the Bubble Room, a swanky tasting salon that pairs higher-end wine flights with refined eats like seared foie gras, mushroom terrine and truffled whitefish caviar.

A year after the launch of the Bubble Room, Mayo Family Winery opened the Reserve Room in Kenwood, a tasting room entirely devoted to sit-down wine-and-food pairings. For $25, visitors are treated to appetizers made by the winery's in-house chef, such as bee pollen-crusted scallop "lollipops" or molasses-glazed duck breast kebabs, paired with single-vineyard wines. This concept proved to be so successful that the winery has opened a second Reserve Room in Healdsburg.

"People are more interested in the entire Wine Country experience now," says winery owner Jeff Mayo. "It's not just about accumulating wine and getting whatever has a 99-point rating."

Mayo points out that Napa Valley spillover is partly responsible for the change in Sonoma's visitors. "What really happened is that the congestion and pricing and attitude of Highway 29 forced people to look at other alternatives," he says. "It's kind of like when the glass it too full, it spills out over the top, and the only place for it to spill nearby is Sonoma."

As wineries polish up their public faces, luxury hotels are also bringing big-city sophistication to small-town Sonoma. And restaurants like Cyrus and Charlie Palmer's Dry Creek Kitchen have put Sonoma County on the fine-dining map.

The opening of Hotel Healdsburg in 2001, with its sleek, modern furnishings, fine dining restaurant and luxurious spa, appeared as perhaps the most clear signal of Sonoma's changing standards. At $260 to $790 per night, the 55-room boutique hotel was a major step up from the typical bed-and-breakfast experience. The involvement of celebrity chef Charlie Palmer as part owner of the hotel and owner of its on-site restaurant, Dry Creek Kitchen, brought an air of high-end legitimacy to the town of Healdsburg.

Hotel Healdsburg's success paved the way for other chic hotels, like the 16-room Les Mars Hotel. Opened in 2005, it emulates the elegance and service of fine European hotels. Appointed with 17th- and 18th-century antiques, rooms at Les Mars run $425 to $1,025 per night.

Les Mars even offers customized wine tours led by well-known wine educator Karen MacNeil. The starting price for a one-day excursion is $7,500.

Les Mars is also home to Cyrus, Sonoma County's answer to the French Laundry. With its fine china, silver flatware and formal, Old World service, Cyrus received four stars from The Chronicle and two stars from Michelin. Despite some initial doubts that this ultra-upscale concept would fly in down-home Sonoma, hopeful diners have been fighting for reservations since the restaurant's 2005 opening.

Cyrus maitre d' and co-owner Nick Peyton, who helped set standards at restaurants like Masa's and Gary Danko, originally planned to open Cyrus with chef Douglas Keane in San Francisco. But when rents proved too expensive, he turned his attention northward to Healdsburg.

"When the idea came up that Doug and I should look at this property, we talked about it and said, 'If there can be French Laundry, Auberge du Soleil, Terra, La Toque -- all these world-class restaurants over in the Napa Valley -- then surely Sonoma could have one special-occasion, formal dining restaurant.' "

After talking to local restaurateurs, Peyton and Keane decided that Healdsburg could not only support such a restaurant, it desperately needed it. "I feel like we provided a piece that was missing in the whole jigsaw puzzle."

While attracting more well-heeled visitors will certainly benefit the businesses of Sonoma County's vintners, hoteliers and restaurateurs, what effect will it have on the town's rural charm and residents' quality of life?

Protecting open spaces

Tourist traffic on Napa Valley's winery-packed Highway 29 has turned into a real problem, and some fear that Sonoma is headed in the same direction.

"Bit by bit, things like wineries, event facilities, hotels and resorts are chipping away at the very qualities that make Sonoma County a great place to visit -- its rural charm, natural beauty and wide open spaces," says Daisy Pistey-Lyhne of the Sonoma-Marin Greenbelt Alliance.

"Maintaining the economic vitality of our farmlands is important, but if we don't strengthen our protections for rural land, we could lose the farmland and the scenery that define Sonoma -- and that would be bad for visitors, residents, farmers and businesses alike."

Jennifer Barrett, deputy director of Sonoma County's Permit & Resource Management Department, says that citizens are concerned about traffic and congestion.

"The saturation of wineries and events has been ranked as an issue in some areas, like Sonoma Valley and Dry Creek Valley, where road capacities are maxed out," she says. "We've had to limit winery events in some areas, and we can't always approve tasting rooms in remote locations."

In some cases, wineries are issued "appointment only" permits, or encouraged to open their tasting rooms in town centers. Local citizens' organizations, like the Dry Creek Valley Association, carefully monitor winery use permits and expansions to ensure that traffic and environmental concerns are met, and that the balance between development and agriculture is maintained.

Lou Preston, owner of Preston Vineyards in Dry Creek Valley, serves on the association's board. As a vintner and 35-year resident, he is worried about more than traffic and congestion. He fears that the increasing number of wineries and tourist-driven businesses in the Dry Creek/Healdsburg area will result in homogenization. "The consumers demand these ancillary -- or not so ancillary -- services of fine dining, hotels and all that," Preston says. "In a way there's nothing wrong with that, but it kind of takes away the personality of the area."

Even so, Preston believes it's possible for showcase wineries to coexist with small, low-key operations like Preston. "I think you need the more visible wineries to capture the imagination of the broader public."

The positive side to Sonoma's development, Preston says, is that it's bringing more cultural diversity to the region. "There is culture here now -- we used to be kind of a cow town, and rather introverted. I think the danger is that the decision makers -- I'm talking especially about Healdsburg -- like the City Council and Chamber of Commerce, are listening to money. The people who have been here for a long time aren't calling the shots anymore, yet they are the personality of the area."

Despite Healdsburg's rapid boom, Chris Hanna, president of Healdsburg-based Hanna Winery & Vineyards and president of Sonoma County Vintners, says the city will maintain its diversity and small-town charm. Hanna operates two popular tasting rooms -- one in Healdsburg and one in Santa Rosa -- that attract approximately 2,300 visitors each month.

"I think the merchants here and hoteliers really value the locals and the small-town atmosphere," she says. "That's why we all live here, and we all work toward that end."

Balancing act

Rather than pushing out the small, folksy wineries that characterize Sonoma, Hanna says, new tourist-driven wineries will make it easier for them to survive. "If we want family wineries to be viable, we've got to provide wine tourists to support those businesses. The reality is that many of those wineries are small, and they rely on direct sales. I think there's room in Sonoma County for both types of experience."

Jeff Bundschu also believes that Sonoma's quirky character will live on. "I don't believe that upscale and eccentricity are mutually exclusive attributes," he says. "The funk hasn't disappeared, it has just moved right along with the times. As Sonoma has evolved, the 'down-home oddball' has become the 'rich eccentric,' with the only real difference being the size of their respective checkbooks.

"For example, no longer do we have the guy downtown who rented his un-refurbished chicken sheds out as art studios, but we do have the guy who is putting a full-scale railroad around his 10-acre rural property."

Vintner Jeff Mayo adds that Sonoma County's landscape will prevent it from turning into a congested wine Disneyland. "We've got something going that Napa doesn't, and it's that our areas are so much more spread out," he says.

"You're not so bottlenecked in one location, with so much traffic on only two roads. You can go to Highway 12 in Sonoma Valley, you can go to Dry Creek, you can go to Westside Road, you can go to Occidental Road, you can go out to Graton -- we really have a way of dispersing people in more varied locations."

Still, Mayo predicts that Napa and Sonoma will someday be thought of as a single wine region. "They're becoming more alike," he says.

"People used to only say 'Napa' or 'Sonoma,' but now I hear people saying 'Napa-Sonoma.' "

http://sfgate.com/c/pictures/2007/02/16/wi_sonoma23_569_cl.jpg

A taste of luxury in Sonoma County
Wineries

The Blending Cellar

Free wine blending session included with six-bottle (per person) purchase of the final blend at $40 per bottle. Mayo Winery, 13101 Arnold Drive, Glen Ellen; (707) 849-4041 or blendingcellar.com.

Chalk Hill Winery

Culinary tour ($40) includes a tour of the winery's organic garden, vineyards and a sit-down tasting of wines paired with several small plates. 10300 Chalk Hill Rd., Healdsburg; (800) 838-4306 or chalkhill.com.

Hanna Winery & Vineyards

Artisan cheese pairing ($12) includes sit-down tasting of Hanna wines. 9280 Highway 128, Healdsburg; (707) 431-4310 or hannawinery.com.

J Vineyards & Winery

Bubble Room tasting ($45) includes a choice of wine flights with appetizers. 11447 Old Redwood Hwy., Healdsburg; (707) 431-5430 or jwine.com.

Mayo Family Winery Reserve Rooms

Tasting ($25) includes seven wines paired with seven gourmet appetizers. Sonoma Valley Reserve Room, 9200 Sonoma Hwy., Kenwood; (707) 833-5504. Healdsburg Reserve Room, 40 Center St., Healdsburg; (707) 433-9400.

St. Francis Winery & Vineyards

Wine and food pairing ($20) includes four reserve wines and four appetizers. 100 Pythian Rd., Santa Rosa; (888) 675-9463 or stfranciswinery.com.

Seghesio Family Vineyard

Sit-down tastings ($25) featuring chef-prepared family recipes and four limited or library wines held Friday-Sunday in the winery's upstairs cellar. 14730 Grove St., Healdsburg; (707) 433-3579 or seghesio.com.

-- T.C.

Tina Caputo is the managing editor for Wines & Vines magazine. E-mail her at wine@sfchronicle.com.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/02/16/WIG5OO2CE91.DTL

This article appeared on page F - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle