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zoomer
Feb 3, 2007, 6:24 AM
Jeez, I should be a newspaper editor, making up shocking headlines to sell papers...

Ok, I exaggerated, but here's the story from the Globe and Mail. It'll explain why you might not be hearing much from us SSPers in Victoria and Vancouver for a while.


B.C. put on alert for huge quake

JANE ARMSTRONG

From Saturday's Globe and Mail

VANCOUVER — Scientists have alerted British Columbia's emergency-planning department to the possibility of a catastrophic earthquake striking the province's southwest coast next week.

While the probability of a quake is still low, rapid strides in earthquake detection have given federal scientists with the Pacific Geoscience Centre on Vancouver Island greater confidence in their ability to predict when and where one will occur. Garry Rogers, a seismologist at the centre, compared the current earthquake odds to the dangers of driving a car.

“Everyone drives their car every day, and the probability of getting in a car accident is small,” Dr. Rogers said. But during rush hour, the probability of getting into an accident is much higher. “Well, Vancouver Island is now driving in rush hour.”

What prompted the alert was a series of imperceptible tremors emanating from deep beneath the ocean, which scientists now recognize as ominous warnings that the earth is on the move again off Vancouver Island.

They now estimate the long-awaited giant quake will hit closer to the island's western shoreline than previously thought.

The tremors occurred on what is known as the Cascadia subduction zone, which lies beneath the Pacific Ocean off the West Coast and runs from Vancouver Island to Northern California. The rumblings began last week near Puget Sound near Seattle and made their way north to Vancouver Island in recent days.

The tremors — known in earthquake-speak as an episodic tremor and slip — monitor the ongoing strain between the solid earth on the West Coast and the offshore Juan de Fuca Plate.

The two plates are rubbing against one another, with the offshore plate continually pushing against and under the North American Plate.

The recent tremors mean that even more stress is building between the two, which scientists believe will one day rupture into a major earthquake the size of the one off the coast of Indonesia on Dec. 26, 2004, which killed thousands.

Dr. Rogers said the chances of a major earthquake striking southwestern B.C. spike during the tremor events. The current tremor session is expected to last for another week.

A tremor event is similar to an earthquake, but it occurs at a deep level on a fault where the rocks are hot and elastic.

Instead of the offshore tectonic plates slipping steadily under North America, the scientists now say there are periodic jumps that pass stress up to the more shallow locked section of the fault, where earthquakes occur.

“It's piling [stress] on the upper portion and eventually it will fail,” causing a giant earthquake, Dr. Rogers said.

He offered another analogy to describe the effects of the stress buildup caused by the tremors.

“It's like adding straws to the proverbial camel's back,” he said. “Every time we add a straw, we get closer to failing the camel's back. One of those straws will break the camel's back.”

Scientists at the geoscience centre first discovered the tremor events in 1999. Data showed that seven GPS sites, which were strung along from Vancouver Island to Seattle, were moving out to sea.

It's long been known that Vancouver Island is slowly moving eastward toward the mainland. But suddenly, the data showed the movement was reversed.

Eventually, scientists linked this reversal of movement to the tremor events. Right now, Dr. Rogers noted, Vancouver Island is again moving west.

The scientists' findings were presented four years ago at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.

Since then, dozens of scientists from around the globe have begun tracking tremor events.

One day, one of these tremor events will cause the fault line to rupture, he said, resulting in an earthquake magnitude measuring as high as 9.

It would not be the first great megathrust quake to devastate the West Coast of North America. The geological record on the West Coast has shown that giant earthquakes occur once every 500 years.

The last one struck on Jan. 26, 1700, causing widespread destruction, flooding and a giant tsunami. Indian villages along the coast were wiped out and the tsunami reverberated as far as Japan.

Because B.C.'s West Coast is earthquake territory, the province is more prepared than many jurisdictions. Every B.C. municipality is required by law to have an emergency plan.

Dr. Rogers said a giant quake would cause widespread damage. The rupture line will be about 1,000 kilometres long and the tremors would continue for minutes — not seconds.

The offshore rupture would cause the continental shelf to spring upward, causing a tsunami that would slam the west coast of Vancouver Island, causing property damage and loss of life on coastal communities.

The good news is that West Coast scientists say advances in detecting tremor events have translated into improved methods of pinpointing where the inevitable rupture will occur.

Previously, they could provide a rough location — up to 100 kilometres off Vancouver Island — of the next quake. New data show the quake will occur 25 kilometres closer to shore, meaning the damage will be greater.

As a result of this find, scientists will urge some affected municipalities to toughen their building codes, Dr. Rogers said.

elsonic
Feb 3, 2007, 6:48 AM
it's not impossible - if I refer to Douglas Coupland, wich wrote that the first concerned area would be Richmond (south inner suburb of Vancouver) - now let just hope that everyone (and the structures) are aware of that «possibility».

mr.x
Feb 3, 2007, 6:55 AM
^ what an earthquake can do to Richmond:

1) during high tide and during a major quake, the dikes protecting the city could break causing the city to flood.

2) a tsunami could breach the dikes (high or low tide)

3) Richmond is built on a river delta.....liquidfaction of the soil would occur during an major earthquake. Water will rise to the service. Buildings may tilt or sink.

Calgarian
Feb 3, 2007, 7:03 AM
Good bye Vancouver!! lol

Kilgore Trout
Feb 3, 2007, 7:10 AM
i'll be in vancouver the week after next. just in time for the excitement? what a way to ring in the lunar new year.

e909
Feb 3, 2007, 7:13 AM
since when can scientists accurately predict earthquakes?

mr.x
Feb 3, 2007, 7:33 AM
since when can scientists accurately predict earthquakes?

they can't, but they can predict where they will likely occur. right now, all they're saying is where it may happen and that the likelihood of a major earthquake is now 50 times greater than normal.

Sean.Perrin
Feb 3, 2007, 7:51 AM
this is 'shocking'. Lol.

In all seriousness though, news like this is a punch in the face to the reality that the world we live in is just that... the world. It has seen more than we know.... and will continue as such long after humans are extinct.

:cheers:

Taller Better
Feb 3, 2007, 7:56 AM
God i hope not. I have too much family there.

vid
Feb 3, 2007, 1:41 PM
http://www.ams.org/mathmedia/images/md-200510-stringtheory.jpg

'Wonderful news, everybody!' :D

zerokarma
Feb 3, 2007, 4:11 PM
I doubt anything will happen next week over there.

keninhalifax
Feb 3, 2007, 4:23 PM
“Everyone drives their car every day, and the probability of getting in a car accident is small,” Dr. Rogers said. But during rush hour, the probability of getting into an accident is much higher. “Well, Vancouver Island is now driving in rush hour.”

...Sounds like a sure thing to me.

dubiousmike
Feb 3, 2007, 4:29 PM
Shit, man. I was in a hundred year old building in downtown Victoria during the Nisqually quake in 2001, and I was certain it was going to collapse and I was going to die. And that was a 6.8. 50 km deep. 150 km away.

A 9.0 would suck hard.

At least most of Victoria is built on rock. The parts of Greater Vancouver built on riverbed would be especially fucked.

Taller Better
Feb 3, 2007, 4:52 PM
Victoria might be built on rock, but sometimes earthquakes cause tidal waves. I think this is all a bit of media exaggeration to spice up a dull news week.

vid
Feb 3, 2007, 6:25 PM
"I think this is all a bit of media exaggeration to spice up a dull news week."

Probably. :)

I wanna see it, but I don't want it to happen. :P It's fun to see city's destroyed, but only in fake fake world.

CC420
Feb 3, 2007, 6:58 PM
Let's take bets people. Maybe give the earthquake choosers 50:1 odds. :cheers:

mr.x
Feb 3, 2007, 11:12 PM
Victoria might be built on rock, but sometimes earthquakes cause tidal waves. I think this is all a bit of media exaggeration to spice up a dull news week.

tidal waves? you mean tsunamis. ;:

dubiousmike
Feb 4, 2007, 12:22 AM
Victoria might be built on rock, but sometimes earthquakes cause tidal waves. I think this is all a bit of media exaggeration to spice up a dull news week.

Tsunamis. Tidal waves are an entirely different thing.

And Victoria is not prone to an open-ocean tsunami resulting from a failure in the Cascadia Subduction zone. Look at a map. Factor in the underwater topography. The risk of a giant wave hitting Victoria proper is roughly nil.

And being built on rock is a big deal in terms of risk of structural failure. Take a look at a damage map from the 1906 and 1989 quakes in San Francisco. It's the areas built on sediment that get fucked. Soil subsidence and fire are the primary concerns. Not things getting shaken to pieces. This is scary shit, considering that much of Greater Vancouver is built on a river delta.

An earthquake of the type and scale they're predicting, though, will probably last in excess of two minutes, more likely 3 or 4. so all bets are off in terms of seismic damage.

It's happened before. Here's a picture from downtown Anchorage after the Good Friday Quake in 1964. That was a 9.2.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4e/AlaskaQuake-FourthAve.jpg/779px-AlaskaQuake-FourthAve.jpg

Jay in Cowtown
Feb 4, 2007, 12:50 AM
Hopefully the Canucks have home games next week!

fishy
Feb 4, 2007, 1:07 AM
whats with all the negativity coming from cowtown? This is serious stuff. Hopefully it won't happen anytime soon considering how unprepared the city is whenever it comes to the unexpected.

dubiousmike
Feb 4, 2007, 1:16 AM
^^^

Most Calgarians didn't grow up having monthly earthquake drills in elementary school. They don't wake up to tremors. They don't stockpile bottled water and wonder about whether they have enough D-Cell batteries in their crawlspace.

In short, they think it's all a big joke because they don't know shit about anything.

harls
Feb 4, 2007, 1:17 AM
if it happens, then it happens. Now, next year, or 20 years from now.. how can these scientists accurately predict when the earth's crust decides to shift its bowels? Christ, it's like asking me when I'm going to let a bronx cheer go after eating a bowl of chili.. it'll happen when it happens. but instead of hours you're talking years. it's whenever the earth decides to fart, end of discussion.

SpongeG
Feb 4, 2007, 9:29 AM
i saw that on the news the other day

they said the tremors they have been monitoring have been more frequent than usual

anyway everyone with pets should watch them - they say animals know days before they hit - cats and dogs go missing and freak out more

when the quake hit seattle last time this woman in a pet store said about an hour before the quake hit all the birds stopped making any noise and it was really quiet and she was kinda weirded out by it but didn't think anything of it until after the quake

SpongeG
Feb 4, 2007, 9:31 AM
and for all the doubters latest research is getting to a point where they can almost predict quakes - they can pin point a time window - not necessarily a specific time

queetz@home
Feb 4, 2007, 2:22 PM
Is life really that boring in Vancouver they have to make up these silly predictions just to spice things up? Honestly? WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT? They already had the roof of BC Place collapse....is that not enough excitement for an entire decade? :haha:

I betcha this Jane Armstrong just wants to buy a Vancouver condo... ;)

osirisboy
Feb 4, 2007, 6:13 PM
Is life really that boring in Vancouver they have to make up these silly predictions just to spice things up? Honestly? WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT? They already had the roof of BC Place collapse....is that not enough excitement for an entire decade? :haha:

I betcha this Jane Armstrong just wants to buy a Vancouver condo... ;)

im hoping youre being sarcastic.

Gerrard
Feb 4, 2007, 9:02 PM
not a huge loss

GoflamesGo
Feb 4, 2007, 9:12 PM
What would happen to the olympics?

ScottFromCalgary
Feb 4, 2007, 9:16 PM
I guess they would have to move them back to Calgary. We still have the facilities. Hmmm...

GoflamesGo
Feb 4, 2007, 10:05 PM
^ Just the answer I was lookign for. haha, but seriously, i would hate to see a city like vancouver destroyed. canada would lose a great city. as long as the earthquake only destroyes gm place while the canucks are practicing, and destroyes all the olympic venues, so they move to calgary, I'll be happy.

mersar
Feb 4, 2007, 10:21 PM
Minor tremors under Vancouver Island end

Last Updated: Sunday, February 4, 2007 | 11:11 AM ET
CBC News (http://www.cbc.ca/news/credit.html)

The latest episode of subterranean tremors beneath Vancouver Island has ended earlier than expected, seismologists at the Pacific Geoscience Centre in Sidney, B.C., said Saturday.

"Things have quietened down very quickly. We don’t know why," Natural Resources Canada seismologist John Cassidy told the Victoria Times Colonist newspaper.
The minor earth tremors under the floor of the Pacific Ocean indicate that stress is being placed on the shallow, locked part of the Cascadia fault line.
The tremors are caused by the slipping of the bottom plate in the fault, which runs off the west coast of the island and beneath it. If the plate gives way, a major earthquake would result.
Scientists say they began picking up the low-level shaking in 2003 with sensitive equipment. The episodes seem to occur every 14 months, with the latest detected on Jan. 31. The next expected episode of tremor and slip is expected to occur in April 2008.
The tremor activity has, in the past, lasted for a week or two, moving along the fault line from Puget Sound in Washington state to Vancouver Island.
Cassidy told the newspaper the seismic activity usually travels across Juan de Fuca Strait up the island to Lake Cowichan and on to the Alberni Inlet, but this time, it appeared to stop north of Duncan.

SpongeG
Feb 4, 2007, 10:34 PM
phew

i didn't have time to buy my emergency kit yet

SpongeG
Feb 4, 2007, 10:35 PM
Is life really that boring in Vancouver they have to make up these silly predictions just to spice things up? Honestly? WHAT IS THIS ALL ABOUT? They already had the roof of BC Place collapse....is that not enough excitement for an entire decade? :haha:

I betcha this Jane Armstrong just wants to buy a Vancouver condo... ;)

why would they make it up?

Vancouver is in earthquake territory and part of the rim of fire

ReginaGuy
Feb 4, 2007, 10:40 PM
After all the shit weather being thrown at Vancouver this winter, a catastrophic city-destroying earthquake is the logical next progression

SpongeG
Feb 4, 2007, 11:18 PM
we are constantly told to expect the big one here and that we are long overdue

anytime there is an earthquake any where in the world - the local news does a story about vancouver and it being overdue and people need to get ready blah blah blah

murman
Feb 4, 2007, 11:44 PM
I guess they would have to move them back to Calgary. We still have the facilities. Hmmm...

And you still have the "welcome to the '88 olympics" signs at the entrance to the city... :koko:

mr.x
Feb 4, 2007, 11:55 PM
it's coming......


Slide Closes Highway
by Staff - Story: 26446
Feb. 04, 2007 / 2:00 pm

The Sea-to-Sky Highway is closed between Horseshoe Bay and Lions Bay, due to a major landslide just south of Lions Bay. Reports say single lane alternating traffic should be open by 6pm. Highway crews are on the scene, assessing the situation on the road, and up the mountain where the initial slide took place. The full clean-up could take much longer.

queetz@home
Feb 4, 2007, 11:59 PM
we are constantly told to expect the big one here and that we are long overdue

anytime there is an earthquake any where in the world - the local news does a story about vancouver and it being overdue and people need to get ready blah blah blah

See! They just make up these silly stories cuz of the boring life in Vancouver. As for the wind storms, that is NOTHING! We get 200 km per hour winds here during a typhoon and after its done, its back to business the next day.

Why can't people in Vancouver just be happy that they live in a place where natural calamities are rare to practically non-existent instead of envying natural disasters from other parts?

And the earthquake that took place a few years ago...that was a Seattle quake, not a Vancouver quake! My God the Cdn media just tried to steal the limelight on that one.... :haha:

mr.x
Feb 5, 2007, 12:09 AM
See! They just make up these silly stories cuz of the boring life in Vancouver. As for the wind storms, that is NOTHING! We get 200 km per hour winds here during a typhoon and after its done, its back to business the next day.

Why can't people in Vancouver just be happy that they live in a place where natural calamities are rare to practically non-existent instead of envying natural disasters from other parts?

And the earthquake that took place a few years ago...that was a Seattle quake, not a Vancouver quake! My God the Cdn media just tried to steal the limelight on that one.... :haha:

Thank god you're out of the country.

queetz@home
Feb 5, 2007, 12:11 AM
:previous: Indeed! I don't have to pay your stupid RAV tax so that you can have your silly toy train.. :rolleyes:

cornholio
Feb 5, 2007, 12:52 AM
A masive city destructive earthquake would be welcomed by me. It alows insane amounts of money to flow in to the city right after which gives unlimited money making potential to those such as me who have a earthquake plan $$$. Though theres always that posibility of a pylon falling on me and crushing me, but ill take that risk.

Lead
Feb 5, 2007, 1:04 AM
Alberta will finally put its oil money to good use by rebuilding Vancouver.

Jay in Cowtown
Feb 5, 2007, 1:15 AM
Alberta will finally put its oil money to good use by rebuilding Vancouver.

No way... ya'll will have to move here and freeze your asses off.

smasher000
Feb 5, 2007, 2:58 AM
I like that quote: “Everyone drives their car every day, and the probability of getting in a car accident is small,” Dr. Rogers said. But during rush hour, the probability of getting into an accident is much higher. “Well, Vancouver Island is now driving in rush hour.”

They're just saying that becuz of the plates being moved, there is a GREATER CHANCE, so its not exactly a PREDICTION.

These movements in the tectonic plates are actually good. It removes a bit of the pressure in the plates in small bursts, so that if these small bursts happen often, when the real one comes, it wont be as high in magnitude.

Sean.Perrin
Feb 5, 2007, 3:18 AM
Yes... there are higher odds. It is bound to happen some day, I just wonder if we'll see it in our lifetime?

Thoughts?

ReginaGuy
Feb 5, 2007, 3:29 AM
we are constantly told to expect the big one here and that we are long overdue

anytime there is an earthquake any where in the world - the local news does a story about vancouver and it being overdue and people need to get ready blah blah blah
blah blah blah?? You don't think people should be prepared for an earthquake? haha wow. You know, Vancouver really IS due for a major earthquake, and it really CAN happen any time.

Need I remind you that Vancouver falls in to a state of panic whenever theres a bad snowstorm. Remember how crazy some people went when a rainstorm made the water a little brown this winter? An earthquake really would destroy Vancouver, it really seems to be one of the most unprepared cities in the world

baggab
Feb 5, 2007, 4:45 AM
blah blah blah?? You don't think people should be prepared for an earthquake? haha wow. You know, Vancouver really IS due for a major earthquake, and it really CAN happen any time.

Need I remind you that Vancouver falls in to a state of panic whenever theres a bad snowstorm. Remember how crazy some people went when a rainstorm made the water a little brown this winter? An earthquake really would destroy Vancouver, it really seems to be one of the most unprepared cities in the world

Well... Risk Factor is minimized in Vancouver. It's not like anyone will Freeze to death like if a disaster were to happen in other places in Canada.

It rains alot... So we can catch water if necessary. Besides that I geuss a First Aid Kit and random food that people have should be fine. What else do you need to survive for 72 hours or more?

cornholio
Feb 5, 2007, 4:51 AM
^A gun and plenty of amunition...
infact thats all you need.

vid
Feb 5, 2007, 4:55 AM
Everyone should have an emergency kit regardless. I always have three two litre bottles of water in the fridge (If not being used for emergencies, they make great kool aid batches! :tup:) and we've got a good cache of canned food and a couple flashlights.

You should always keep a few bottles of water somewhere, but change the water frequently, because stuff can build up in it. Don't let it sit for more than 6 weeks or so.

SpongeG
Feb 5, 2007, 5:25 AM
See! They just make up these silly stories cuz of the boring life in Vancouver. As for the wind storms, that is NOTHING! We get 200 km per hour winds here during a typhoon and after its done, its back to business the next day.

Why can't people in Vancouver just be happy that they live in a place where natural calamities are rare to practically non-existent instead of envying natural disasters from other parts?

And the earthquake that took place a few years ago...that was a Seattle quake, not a Vancouver quake! My God the Cdn media just tried to steal the limelight on that one.... :haha:


ah yes but we felt it here

our office got evacuated cause it shook our building

i was walking at the time and didn't notice a thing :(

but someone thought a vehicle hit the building apparently

SpongeG
Feb 5, 2007, 5:27 AM
blah blah blah?? You don't think people should be prepared for an earthquake? haha wow. You know, Vancouver really IS due for a major earthquake, and it really CAN happen any time.

Need I remind you that Vancouver falls in to a state of panic whenever theres a bad snowstorm. Remember how crazy some people went when a rainstorm made the water a little brown this winter? An earthquake really would destroy Vancouver, it really seems to be one of the most unprepared cities in the world

oh i am readyish - i have glow sticks and bottled water and batteries :haha:

its just an earthquake can happen in china and the local news seems to have a standard story telling people to prepare for the big one here

so we hear it here all the time - its almost like peter and the wolf now though

raggedy13
Feb 5, 2007, 7:20 AM
Remember how crazy some people went when a rainstorm made the water a little brown this winter? An earthquake really would destroy Vancouver, it really seems to be one of the most unprepared cities in the world

I don't recall people going too crazy. Bottled water was sold out pretty quick but it's not like there was chaos in the streets. But what do you expect when over a million people are under a boil water advisory for over a week with no sure idea of when it would be lifted? I don't think we would be any more unprepared for a disaster than any other city. We'd certainly be better prepared here for an earthquake than Regina for instance. But luckily other cities are blessed with the luxury of not having to worry about such things as their local seismic activity. I do agree however that Vancouver still has much room for improvement.

The real question is if the Canadian military and emergency services would be able to respond to such a disaster rapidly and effectively. Sure it is great if people can survive for several days in a city without power or water but if there is nobody there to dig them out of their houses it won't make much difference in the long run.

keninhalifax
Feb 5, 2007, 6:34 PM
My sister in Victoria phoned up yesterday; she's the type of person who gets nervous fairly easily and she was rather worried. Apparently all the bread and water at the local supermarket had been exhausted, and she didn't know of the increased earthquake probability.

cornholio
Feb 6, 2007, 9:14 AM
^^This is one reason that there has been talk of moving more of the military personal stationed by edmonton to vancouver island if not all of them. Though i havent heared anything new in the past year or so and havent ever realy dug any deeper in to the stats/facts regarding any of this.

ExcaliburKid
Feb 6, 2007, 6:39 PM
^Why would they move the military to Van. Is.? So they can get wiped out in the catastrophic earthquake? or shoot the mean tsunami with artillery rounds? :koko:

Lyle
Feb 6, 2007, 8:40 PM
And Victoria is not prone to an open-ocean tsunami resulting from a failure in the Cascadia Subduction zone. Look at a map. Factor in the underwater topography. The risk of a giant wave hitting Victoria proper is roughly nil.


No, but the risk of one hitting Port Alberni is huge. That same 64 quake funnelled a massive tsunami up into the city and pretty much leveled it.

http://www.drgeorgepc.com/tsu64BCPortAlberni5.gif

http://www.drgeorgepc.com/tsu64BCPortAlberni8.gif

http://www.drgeorgepc.com/tsu64BCPortAlberni7.gif

RHINO
Feb 6, 2007, 9:05 PM
they would move the Army to the GVR to keep order and help with rescue after an earth quake , they would need more people then they would probably get .

ExcaliburKid
Feb 7, 2007, 12:31 AM
they would move the Army to the GVR to keep order and help with rescue after an earth quake , they would need more people then they would probably get .

Sorry, im just not buying that. Move the Armed Forces for a once in a millennia event? come on, thats like saying move the oil headquaters to Edmonton because we are closer to the oil :notacrook:

mr.x
Feb 7, 2007, 1:55 AM
Victoria is certainly at risk for the effects of a tsunami. Here's a simulation of what would happen to Victoria harbour:
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/sci/osap/projects/tsunami/tsu_c1_e.htm


Simulation for Esquimault Harbour:
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/sci/osap/projects/tsunami/tsu_c2_e.htm



Simulation of a tsunami hitting southwestern British Columbia (must see!):
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/sci/osap/projects/tsunami/tsu_aa_e.htm

cornholio
Feb 7, 2007, 9:32 AM
^Why would they move the military to Van. Is.? So they can get wiped out in the catastrophic earthquake? or shoot the mean tsunami with artillery rounds? :koko:
First of all the armed forces wouldent get wiped out.
Second of all Vancouver and Victoria are cities in a earthquake zone where a major earthquake is overdue and people sometimes forget that there is a constant posibility of just a regular earthquake striking at any of the other fault lines scfatered around(6-8 on the richter scale which would also cause extensive damage). The armed forces would take close to a day to be fully deployed which wouldent be a problem if they were stationed out here rather then alberta where the only semi big disaster thatr could hapen is a flood which by the way unfolds over a decent period of time unlike a earthquake or tsunami.

Personaly im suprised that this hasent been talked about more lately since its a pretty easy decision to make, but then politics are politics.

dubiousmike
Feb 8, 2007, 5:08 AM
No, but the risk of one hitting Port Alberni is huge. That same 64 quake funnelled a massive tsunami up into the city and pretty much leveled it.

Who exactly gives a holy fuck about Port Alberni?

Here's a hint: Nobody.

Hell, take a poll of property owners in PA. I'll bet you dollars to doughnuts that they'd prefer the insurance settlement.

LeftCoaster
Feb 8, 2007, 5:14 AM
^People in Port Alberni maybe... but even still probably not.

@ Mr.X2 Those simulations were amazing, thanks alot for them... Vancouver seems to be way more at risk than I ever thought it would be from a tsunami... I diddnt picture the waves acually navigating their way through the Juan De Fuca Straight like that.

dubiousmike
Feb 8, 2007, 5:32 AM
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/sci/osap/projects/tsunami/tsu_aa_e.htm

Most enlightening. That's definitely an effect. But really. 300 cm? Have you ever been to Victoria? 10 feet certainly won't bury it.

I'm far more concerned about the earthquake that spawns such a wave.

SpongeG
Feb 8, 2007, 6:16 AM
gawd people like to beat up on the west coast any they can

an earth quake is an earthquake but its not bad enough for some people

weird

Taller Better
Feb 8, 2007, 6:49 AM
gawd people like to beat up on the west coast any they can

an earth quake is an earthquake but its not bad enough for some people

weird


Well, Spongey, Inter-Provincial bickering, and wishing the worst upon each other is the glue that holds this great country together!! :D

SpongeG
Feb 8, 2007, 6:59 AM
seems so

perhaps when one lives in the best province on the best coast we are above it all

mr.x
Feb 8, 2007, 8:40 AM
Most enlightening. That's definitely an effect. But really. 300 cm? Have you ever been to Victoria? 10 feet certainly won't bury it.

I'm far more concerned about the earthquake that spawns such a wave.

Well, there are some low flat areas in Victoria.....plus factor in whether it is high or low tide.

cornholio
Feb 8, 2007, 9:54 AM
a 10 foot tsunami would be insane since im sure most of you know that its not a wave but rather a ocean surge so that 10 foot wave is 10000feet wide unlike a regular 10 foot wave that is maybe 10 feet wide.

renthefinn
Feb 8, 2007, 11:16 AM
I wonder why the max on the scale is 300cm, cause it definately gets to that point, my guess is that 300cm is not the actual limit. Even at 300cm with a surge like that some of the low lying areas would be pretty beaten up, and may take out some of the heritage structures depending on the tide levels.

raggedy13
Feb 8, 2007, 10:36 PM
The video footage of the tsunami in southeast Asia didn't look all that high either and look at all the damage it caused and lives it took.

SpongeG
Feb 8, 2007, 10:44 PM
i saw soemthing i think it was discovery channel about what if a tsunami hit seattle - because of the way its on a big inlet that the water wouldn't be able to recede so easily andf that it would keep coming in and out - gradually less each time until it disipates

mr.x
Feb 8, 2007, 11:53 PM
a 10 foot tsunami would be insane since im sure most of you know that its not a wave but rather a ocean surge so that 10 foot wave is 10000feet wide unlike a regular 10 foot wave that is maybe 10 feet wide.

Very true. We're not talking about one 3 metre wave, but one continuous surge of water.

RHINO
Feb 9, 2007, 12:57 AM
wow , MR X that sim is good .

mr.x
Feb 9, 2007, 1:11 AM
wow , MR X that sim is good .

lol, those sims freeze my computer halfway into wiping out our beautiful province.

raggedy13
Feb 9, 2007, 1:27 AM
^Same here. I don't see why though. It shouldn't require that much effort to run what is essentially a simple animation.



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