[innov8]

Study: California is suffering 'brain drain'
By Kathy RobertsonStaff of The Sacramento Business Journal
Wednesday, May 23, 2007

California faces a severe shortage of skilled workers if doesn't turn out additional college graduates who stay and work here or attract more from outside the state and the nation, a new study released Wednesday concludes.

The state needs 158,400 more college graduates a year through 2025 to meet future demands for highly skilled labor, according to a study by Hans Johnson and Deborah Reed at the San Francisco-based Public Policy Institute of California. The results are highlighted in the May edition of the organizations publication, "California Counts."

If there's an inadequate supply of skilled workers to meet demand, it could change what the California economy looks like in 20 years, the study authors said in a press call Wednesday. Wages will likely go up for those who are skilled, but the overall economic picture could dampen, affecting tax revenue and government programs.

By 2025, only 32 percent of the state's working-age adults will have a college degree, up a single percentage point from 31 percent in 2005. Yet the latest economic projections indicate that two of every five jobs -- 41 percent -- will require a college degree.

California now loses 9,200 more college grads per year to other states than it gains, partly due to the high cost of housing here, the study concludes. And the growing influx of college grads from other countries -- an average of 55,760 come to the state a year -- doesn't begin to fill the gap.

Sacramento is attracting college grads from the Bay Area and coastal regions because housing costs are more affordable here, Johnson said. The study did not look at regional differences, so the ultimate impact of this movment is unclear.

'California's labor market has changed dramatically over the past two decades as a result of a rising demand for highly skilled workers," Johnson said. Fueled in part by the Baby Boom generation that's now beginning to retire, it could take a hit if the flow of new college grads to the state doesn't pick up considerably.

"It's extremely unlikely the projected need will be met with migration, either domestic or foreign," Johnson said.

Between 2000 and 2005, immigrants to California with a college degree exceeded the number of immigrants who were not high school graduates for the first time. Yet the numbers are not big enough to pick up the slack.

U.S. immigration law would have to change dramatically to allow the numbers needed, and it doesn't appear the federal bill under discussion in the U.S. Senate will make a big difference in the flow of skilled immigrants to the state, Johnson said.

A shift of preference away from family reunification to skilled labor included in the federal legislation is no easy fix either. The numbers aren't big enough and family reunification policies currently bring in both skilled and unskilled labor, Johnson said.

An uptick in H1-B visas granted to skilled workers would help, but the current quota of 65,000 a year was filled the first filing day in April for the fiscal year starting Oct. 1.

No specific policy proposals came with the bad news, though the study concluded increases in college enrollment and graduation rates in the state would help.

http://sacramento.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2007/05/21/daily23.html?surround=lfn

[liat91]

This problem is a vicious cycle. The more people you let in through immigration the more crowded things get and hence the more expensive things get, especially because these people are educated. Slow down the population growth, let the building and infrastructure catch up and the more affordable California will get and then of course more people across our own country will want to go there again. I here from so many people across the country that they would never dream of going to California because the "Golden" in the Golden State is gone and it doesn't even seem like America there anymore. And most of the people I talk to aren't white.

[LosAngelesBeauty]

California Brain Drain?
By ALLEN P. ROBERTS Jr. - 5/23/2007</SPAN>
Los Angeles Business Journal Staff
As the Golden State’s economy becomes more complex, a new study suggests the state’s economy may begin to suffer “brain drain” if it doesn’t start courting, and keeping, more college graduates.

According to the study, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, less domestic migrants with college degrees are choosing to relocate in California, 49 percent from 1995 to 2000 as opposed to 48 percent between 2000 and 2005.

The number of college graduates leaving the state has also jumped, up from 30 percent between 1995 and 2000 to 38 percent from 2000 to 2005. The study cited expensive housing and a high cost of living as the main reasons.

The study also suggests that the problem will get worse. More than 41 percent of all jobs will require at least a college degree by 2025 – as compared to only 33 percent in 2005, according to the study.

In the past, California has been a magnet for graduates from other states and countries due to the expansive aerospace industry in Southern California and the strong tech sector in Northern California. But the study says that since the tech bubble burst, more college graduates have been leaving California for other states than have been arriving.
Los Angeles Business Journal, Copyright © 2007, All Rights Reserved.

[BTinSF]

the study says that since the tech bubble burst, more college graduates have been leaving California for other states than have been arriving.

That may have reversed. Judging by the number of apartments and houses suddenly vacant or for sale in SF and Silicon Valley, a whole lot of people left in 2001-2003, but Fflint posted something about things getting better in Silicon Valley and the population of SF is rising again while the apartment vacancy rate is falling--plus I'm seeing more 20-somethings and more new BMW Z4s and Boxsters again.

[edluva]

considering the bay area's absurdedly high proportion of college-educated people, it's not surprising any brain drain should occur after a downturn in tech. i'd bet many of these people weren't natively raised and educated to begin with anyways, and so the bay area's not really "draining" so much as losing some of the people who came.

for LA though, the brain drain is more signficant and consistent because it describes probably a proportionately bigger net emigration of educated angelenos - people who are born and/or educated here, and then leave. As un-PC as it may sound, it's still a fact that LA's rapid population growth is largely the result of uneducated latino immigrants replacing educated "native" caucasians, by a commanding ratio. Aside from our movie industry (which is really owned by NY anyhow), LA really isn't a dominant focum for any industry - not finance, not IT, not biotech, and it's definitely not big in politics. I'm increasingly finding that in my field, if you aren't somehow affiliated with publically funded research (universities), there's really little reason to stay in LA, careerwise. I'm sure the same goes for finance, or any other "brainy" industry.

[dimondpark]

Its more of a middle class drain as I see it.

[edluva]

^basically

[suga]

for LA though, the brain drain is more signficant and consistent because it describes probably a proportionately bigger net emigration of educated angelenos - people who are born and/or educated here, and then leave. As un-PC as it may sound, it's still a fact that LA's rapid population growth is largely the result of uneducated latino immigrants replacing educated "native" caucasians, by a commanding ratio. Aside from our movie industry (which is really owned by NY anyhow), LA really isn't a dominant focum for any industry - not finance, not IT, not biotech, and it's definitely not big in politics. I'm increasingly finding that in my field, if you aren't somehow affiliated with publically funded research (universities), there's really little reason to stay in LA, careerwise. I'm sure the same goes for finance, or any other "brainy" industry.

Good points, and probably why the only logical and realistic way to address this issue (in LA) is to allow low income immigrants a college education for the same price as a california resident (currently they pay like 5-10 more per unit). And I say this as a native Californian enrolled in college who understands the college revenue process, if we can increase unit fees to balance the state budget and avoid taxing rich people we can increase fees to ensure our state doesnt go down the shitter any further than it already has. A big paper recently ran an article based on a study noting that retiring baby boomers are increasingly depending on cheap illegal labor for care and to support Social Security, and that baby boomers and everybody else needs to take their heads out of their asses and realize that these people are the nations future and need some investment (just like the piblic investment made into Irish and Italians that pushed them up the social ladder).

[Ronin]

I work in the real estate industry, and let me say that the large majority of our buyers are college educated, and NOT from the US originally. I hate to bring race into this (heck, the DRE doesn't even allow us to discuss it), but I rarely ever see white people coming in to buy new homes (only to look), and NEVER any blacks or Hispanics. The future of the Bay Area will be powered by educated foreigners. The perfect example of this is the mid-South Bay area encompassing Cupertino, Sunnyvale, Saratoga. That is what I call a drastic change in demographic within the last 15 years.

[Alta California]

Good points, and probably why the only logical and realistic way to address this issue (in LA) is to allow low income immigrants a college education for the same price as a california resident (currently they pay like 5-10 more per unit). And I say this as a native Californian enrolled in college who understands the college revenue process, if we can increase unit fees to balance the state budget and avoid taxing rich people we can increase fees to ensure our state doesnt go down the shitter any further than it already has. A big paper recently ran an article based on a study noting that retiring baby boomers are increasingly depending on cheap illegal labor for care and to support Social Security, and that baby boomers and everybody else needs to take their heads out of their asses and realize that these people are the nations future and need some investment (just like the piblic investment made into Irish and Italians that pushed them up the social ladder).

Good idea...except that it's been true for a while that immigrants--legal or illegal--pay the same rate as Californians.

[suga]

Really? I thought my school catalog for this year still had a breakdown of seperate costs, resident vs. non.

[Alta California]

Really? I thought my school catalog for this year still had a breakdown of seperate costs, resident vs. non.

Non-residents except illegal immigrants according to AB 540. Yes, someone out of state is suing the state because of it.

[StethJeff]

I here from so many people across the country that they would never dream of going to California because the "Golden" in the Golden State is gone and it doesn't even seem like America there anymore. And most of the people I talk to aren't white.

Is this because other parts of the country have caught up to us and attained their own "Gold" or simply because our own state is on the downfall? Regardless, I'd still argue that California seems golden compared to the rest of the US.:cool:

[Upward]

Its more of a middle class drain as I see it.

Yes, exactly.

California is moving toward a very polarized socioeconomic spectrum. On one end will be the rich businesspeople and people from the entertainment industry (especially in LA), and on the other end will be the impoverished employees of the service industry. The middle class is being eradicated as it becomes increasingly impossible to afford to live decently without actually being upper-class.