Housing market

[movingtohamilton]

It's a sellers market this spring in Hamilton. A Lack of listings and bidding wars.

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/3252025-bidding-wars-housing-gone-crazy/

[Berklon]

And yet I see the same houses sitting unsold after months and a few open houses.

Sounds like typical realtor BS to me.

[movingtohamilton]

And yet I see the same houses sitting unsold after months and a few open houses.

Sounds like typical realtor BS to me.

We need to separate our own anecdotes from aggregate data. In my neighbourhood (according to the article, I live in Hamilton Centre), houses sell quickly.

On one street, where 3 houses sold in 2-3 weeks, there remains one "lemon" which is sitting unsold. Given where it is (at a busy intersection) and its poor condition the seller is likely holding out for an unrealistic price.

Overall, it looks be a sellers market, with some neighbourhoods experiencing a rapid rise in prices and others not so much.

[HillStreetBlues]

Realtor BS is right. Very cute slide show, but it's all anecdotal. I happened to see 53 Homewood- the house that went for a "whopping $170,000 over asking." It would be more accurate to say that it went $170,000 over the reserve bid, since it was set up as an auction and the listing price was a completely meaningless number. I jokingly asked the agent what methodology she had used to value the home, and she (like a lot of realtors) didn't understand the question. There are a lot of good agents out there, but a lot of them aren't doing much more than letting people in for views.

"A ReMax Canada report earlier this year said property values in Hamilton have jumped 76 per cent in 10 years." This is another problem I have with these types of "articles." "Jumped" 76 percent in 10 years? Huh? What is that, five percent a year? Some jump…

However, some neighbourhoods have increased in value a fair bit faster than inflation and wages (as they have elsewhere in the country). Is that likely to continue forever, or correct itself?

A low number of listings does not mean a healthy market. Declines in volumes precede declines in prices, and we are quite possibly heading there.

[Duckyboy]

Realtor BS is right. Very cute slide show, but it's all anecdotal. I happened to see 53 Homewood- the house that went for a "whopping $170,000 over asking." It would be more accurate to say that it went $170,000 over the reserve bid, since it was set up as an auction and the listing price was a completely meaningless number. I jokingly asked the agent what methodology she had used to value the home, and she (like a lot of realtors) didn't understand the question. There are a lot of good agents out there, but a lot of them aren't doing much more than letting people in for views.

"A ReMax Canada report earlier this year said property values in Hamilton have jumped 76 per cent in 10 years." This is another problem I have with these types of "articles." "Jumped" 76 percent in 10 years? Huh? What is that, five percent a year? Some jump…

However, some neighbourhoods have increased in value a fair bit faster than inflation and wages (as they have elsewhere in the country). Is that likely to continue forever, or correct itself?

A low number of listings does not mean a healthy market. Declines in volumes precede declines in prices, and we are quite possibly heading there.

Nice to hear someone who knows what they are talking about.

[movingtohamilton]

The most reliable data on this issue will be found from a 3rd. party source who generally will "have no dog in this fight". My post which started this thread, and the following ones, have been anecdotal.

A healthy market is thought to be a balanced market. I would like to see recent evidence in Ontario that a decline in listings has lead to a decline in prices. Prices in Toronto are not in decline.

[SteelTown]

Housing starts up slightly

http://www.cbc.ca/hamilton/news/story/2013/06/10/hamilton-may-housing-starts.html

Housing starts in Hamilton are up slightly from last month according to the latest information from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

The city had 3044 housing starts in May, versus 3040 in April say the CMHC.

The numbers have been holding steady since March but are up considerably from February when the region say only 2704 starts.

"The trend in Hamilton's total housing starts remained practically unchanged in May 2013 relative to the previous month. Hamilton CMA residential construction activity in the past three months has been consistently signaling a stable local housing market," said Abdul Kargbo, CMHC's Senior Market Analyst for Hamilton and Brantford in a statement.

The CMHC calculates a six-month moving average of seasonally adjusted annual rates of housing starts. It uses this trend measure to complement the monthly tally of housing starts in order to account for swings in monthly estimates and paint a more complete picture of patterns in the housing market, the organization said.

[thistleclub]

The CMHC press release (http://www.dcnonl.com/nw/33905/re) notes:

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next. The multiples segment includes apartments, rows and semi-detached homes.

From the CMHC's Preliminary Housing Starts, May 2013 (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64695/64695_2013_M06.pdf?fr=1370880043524):

Hamilton CMA, May 2013 (Table 1)
Single-Detached: 126
All Others: 151
Total: 277

Hamilton CMA, January-May 2013 (Table 2)
Single-Detached: 425
All Others: 868
Total: 1,293

May 2013 numbers are down negligibly (1%), year-over-year, while Jan-May 2013 saw a 17% drop in starts compared to the same period last year.

Here are CMHC's numbers for April 2013 in the Hamilton CMA (https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalog/productDetail.cfm?cat=57&itm=1&lang=en&fr=1370879551554):

Starts by Dwelling Type (Table A4-1)
Singles: 100
Semis: 0
Apt/Other: 0
Row: 51
Total: 151

Starts, April 2013 (Table H6-1)
Burlington: 10
Grimsby: 6
Hamilton: 135
Total: 151

Starts, Jan-Apr 2013 (Table H6-1)
Burlington: 462
Grimsby: 14
Hamilton: 540
Total: 1,016

The Hamilton CMA reportedly had 3,044 new housing starts in March 2013 as well (http://www.cbc.ca/hamilton/news/story/2013/04/09/hamilton-housing-march.html). Elsewhere, the CMHC reports that the Hamilton CMA recorded 2,969 new housing starts in all of 2012 (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=6025946&postcount=477).

[drpgq]

Starts, April 2013 (Table H6-1)
Burlington: 10
Grimsby: 6
Hamilton: 135
Total: 151

Starts, Jan-Apr 2013 (Table H6-1)
Burlington: 462
Grimsby: 14
Hamilton: 540
Total: 1,016

Interesting how Burlington had only 10 starts in April versus 462 for the first four months. I suppose that's more evidence that Burlington is mostly built out for single family houses and how any growth there will be apartments/condos intensification. Weird that Grimsby only has 14 for the first four months. I would have thought there would be more.

[whodiman]

Very informative forum. Interesting to see what has happened reading all the way from the start. Of course we have the help of hindsight now but still pretty neat. Took me a long time to read it all. Hopefully we can continue to get good information. I love reading about real estate. Hamilton seems to be a city with lots of promise.

[thistleclub]

From RAHB’s May 2013 market report: (http://www.rahb.ca/2013/06/record-number-of-sales-in-may/)

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported a record 1599 sales of all property types listed through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®). The previous record was 1598 sales in June of 2009. There were 2,268 properties listed in May, a small increase over May of last year. All property sales increased by 3.4 per cent over the same month last year. The average sale price of $423,542 was an increase of 12.2 per cent from the previous May. Seasonally adjusted sales of residential properties were 1.5 per cent higher than the same month last year, with the average sale price up 12.3 per cent for the month. Seasonally adjusted numbers of new listings were 3.4 per cent higher than the same month last year.... Year to date, listings are down 2.1 per cent compared to the same period last year, while sales are 4.6 per cent lower. The average sale price for the first five months of the year is 7.5 per cent higher than the same period last year.

Average Sale Price, May 2013 (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/May-Statistical.jpg)

Flamborough $607,384
Burlington $502,473
Ancaster $494,782
Waterdown $453,720
Dundas $374,913
Glanbrook $352,596
Hamilton West $345,360
Grimsby $327,909
Stoney Creek $320,051
Caledonia $317,176
Hamilton Mountain $283,999
Hamilton East $219,521
Hamilton Centre $175,740
Dunnville $170,075

Average Sale Price Increase ($), May 2013 vs May 2012

Flamborough $84,551
Hamilton West $60,589
Ancaster $57,229
Waterdown $50,517
Caledonia $41,313
Burlington $38,137
Hamilton East $14,816
Hamilton Mountain $10,472
Stoney Creek $9,125
Hamilton Centre $9,100
Dunnville -$5,848
Glanbrook -$13,267
Dundas -$25,539
Grimsby -$30,064

Average Sale Price Increase (%), May 2013 vs May 2012

Hamilton West 21.27%
Flamborough 16.17%
Caledonia 14.98%
Ancaster 13.07%
Waterdown 12.53%
Burlington 8.21%
Hamilton East 7.23%
Hamilton Centre 5.46%
Hamilton Mountain 3.83%
Stoney Creek 2.93%
Dunnville -3.32%
Glanbrook -3.63%
Dundas -6.38%
Grimsby -8.40%

[thistleclub]

Landlords to offer alternative to apartment licensing (http://www.thespec.com/news-story/3844312-landlords-to-offer-alternative-to-apartment-licensing/)
(Hamilton Spectator, Matthew Van Dongen, June 18 2013)

Landlords and realtors will pitch an alternative plan to deal with illegal apartments today in an effort to head off a controversial city proposal to license rental units.

City staff have proposed licensing rental units in houses and small buildings, arguing close to 30% of all apartments in converted homes are illegal under current bylaws.

City councillors put off a decision on the licensing scheme early this year and asked industry groups to pitch an alternative that would improve safety and overcrowding in converted homes.

Landlords and realtors will pitch a reinterpretation of existing zoning bylaws to allow existing safe units that are technically illegal.

[matt602]

Interesting to see sale prices in all parts of the old City of Hamilton are on the rise, especially in the West. Kinda surprised to see Dundas take such a dive though.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

I don't want to offend any Flamborites out there but that number - $607,384 - is further evidence of just how screwed and grotesquely inflated housing prices are in the area, not to mention Canada at large. I just can't make sense of there being that kind of demand to live in a cardboard house on the fringe of the city.

[thistleclub]

Dundas (like Flamborough) represents a smaller sales volume, so the variations can show some wobble, and RAHB attaches any number of caveats to this info. (I look at it as being mostly for entertainment value.) In general, however, Dundas is consistently one of the top five local real estate draws. January-March 2013 (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=6088497&postcount=490), Dundas averaged $373,029; in April 2013 (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=6125738&postcount=496), $376,985. So a May 2013 average of $374,913 isn’t exactly a meteoric fall.

Once the June numbers are tallied I’ll do up Q2 and mid-year tables. Still not airtight, but the larger the sample, the more revealing the results.

[thistleclub]

Inevitable wrinkle in the story that never gets old. (http://www.thestar.com/news/2008/01/05/twice_the_house_half_the_price.html)

Bidding wars, soaring house prices hit Hamilton real estate (http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/06/21/bidding_wars_soaring_house_prices_hit_hamilton_real_estate.html)
(Toronto Star, Susan Pigg, June 21 2013)

Cathy Thomson always imagined that when she and her husband retired, they would sell their house in Oshawa and move to the big city.
They did. The City of Hamilton.

The former librarians were shocked to discover that for about half the price, $295,000, they could get everything they’d hoped to find in Toronto — a cool condo close to a burgeoning arts scene, thriving cafes, up-and-coming restaurants, and bike paths that meander along a waterfront undergoing a rebirth.

With any luck, all-day GO train service, originally slated for the 2015 PanAm Games, will arrive someday within a 10-minute walk of their new home, a soaring and sunny 1,200-square-foot condo in a beautifully converted, century-old school.

Thomson, 57, and her husband Rick Ficek, 67, never intended to become cheerleaders for Steeltown — a city they barely knew, or thought they’d even like, until they got past the aged smokestacks and strolled through its tree-lined historic central neighbourhoods.

There they discovered elegant, and sometimes unloved, brick Victorians, charming workers’ cottages and even Rosedale-like mansions. And they were all shockingly affordable — at least by Toronto’s sky-high standards.

But prices here are now growing at a rate outpacing almost every other city in Canada. Locals largely blame “real estate refugees” from the GTA, and too few listings to meet the growing demand. Prices in the region rose 12.8 per cent in May over a year earlier, more than three times the national average.

The historic southwest part of the city core, the up-and-coming Bayfront area overlooking the revitalized Hamilton Harbour, and the streets, like Thomson’s and Ficek’s, in the area west of St. James St. N. are also in hot demand from international medical experts, researchers and even investors, says Bruce Moran, president of the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington.

And with that demand come the hallmarks of a hot market: More realtors holding back offers or underpricing properties to fuel bidding wars, and higher prices, which last month averaged $416,664 in Hamilton-Burlington, up from $369,292 a year ago, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Veteran realtors still shake their heads as they drive past a 2½-storey west-end home that recently sold for $471,250 — more than $170,000 over the $299,900 list price.

“There is a lot more going on here than meets the eye,” says Keanin Loomis, 38, president of the Hamilton Chamber of Commerce, who was a Rochester, N.Y., lawyer until 2009.

“The minute I moved here I felt like I was in on Canada’s best-kept secret. I always said I didn’t want that to get out until I’d bought a house.”

He did, last February, in what realtors have dubbed “the trendy Locke St. area,” for $32,000 over the $349,000 asking price in an eight-person bidding war.

All-day GO train service had been expected to further fuel the real estate boom by creating “a 45-minute iPad ride,” in the words of local realtor Juliana Webster, between affordable homes and Toronto jobs. Right now there are some trains during rush hour and buses the rest of the day. By the time the PanAm Games begin, GO will expand train service during rush hours.

“The big challenge is having people look down their nose at you when they find out you have moved to Hamilton,” says Webster, formerly of Montreal. “But that’s changing. Once people see what Hamilton has to offer, we find they go home and tell their friends, so the word is getting out.”

[Jon Dalton]

That looks like a puff piece.

Only a realtor would be quoted as saying GO service will be a '45 minute iPad ride'. The reality is Metrolinx promised nothing in terms of service levels or express / semi-express service.

There may have been a few bidding wars induced by below-market list prices, but I believe the stats show prices are holding steady. They certainly aren't skyrocketing in my neighbourhood, which this article is mostly written about.

I honestly hope not to be caught up in the insanity of a rapidly inflating market. It would carry unintended consequences.

[thistleclub]

That looks like a puff piece.

Very much so. Most real estate stories are, but this one manages a fine balance of vacuous and authoritative.

Maybe RAHB's president neglected to mention that the market's 12% price growth is primarily driven by suburban/rural prices.

[oldcoote]

That looks like a puff piece.

Only a realtor would be quoted as saying GO service will be a '45 minute iPad ride'. The reality is Metrolinx promised nothing in terms of service levels or express / semi-express service.

There may have been a few bidding wars induced by below-market list prices, but I believe the stats show prices are holding steady. They certainly aren't skyrocketing in my neighbourhood, which this article is mostly written about.

I honestly hope not to be caught up in the insanity of a rapidly inflating market. It would carry unintended consequences.

I can tell you for a fact that 3 recent home sales in prime Westdale have gone for considerably more than asking. And they were not underpriced.

[Berklon]

I can tell you for a fact that 3 recent home sales in prime Westdale have gone for considerably more than asking. And they were not underpriced.

And there are a lot of decent homes that have sat on the market for a while... have been pulled for a awhile and was re-listed and is still sitting.

It's definitely a puff piece... pure realtor marketing disguised as a news article.
They've been doing this for years and it's helped inflate this stupid bubble that has done significant damage to the economy - sucking so many people in needless debt.

[thistleclub]

More realtors holding back offers or underpricing properties to fuel bidding wars, and higher prices

See if you can spot the finger on the scale.

NUMBER OF SALES, JAN-MAY 2013

Hamilton West: 244 (down 28.65% vs Jan-May 2012)
Flamborough: 95 (down 20.17% vs Jan-May 2012)
Stoney Creek: 400 (down 13.42% vs Jan-May 2012)
Dundas: 149 (down 13.27% vs Jan-May 2012)
Burlington: 1,345 (down 10.21% vs Jan-May 2012)
Grimsby: 169 (down 7.65% vs Jan-May 2012)
Hamilton East: 350 (down 6.42% vs Jan-May 2012)
Hamilton Mountain: 786 (down 5.30% vs Jan-May 2012)
Glanbrook: 160 (up 0.0% vs Jan-May 2012)
Waterdown: 161 (up 3.23% vs Jan-May 2012)
Hamilton Centre: 498 (up 4.62% vs Jan-May 2012)
Ancaster: 269 (up 17.98% vs Jan-May 2012)

Source: Collated from RAHB Market Reports

[sil]

Well i live in the area of proposed new GO Station and I can say that there are houses that are on the market for less then a week and sold instantly, I have had numerous people come up to me and ask if im selling..... so regardless if metrolink only does rush service during and after the PAN AM games i still appreciate the service regardless. It's positive people that make a difference, it takes one step at a time as they say "Rome wasn't built in one day" and i look forward to the next 20 years on james north

[movingtohamilton]

There seem to be two contentious issues: mainstream media puff pieces; reliability of data. On puff pieces, I agree that real estate articles tend to go to the cheerleading end of the continuum. But what if the Star article slammed Hamilton: "what a dump, no one should ever consider moving there"? Would we be as equally cynical and agree with that position, or rise to defend the city?

The reliability of data is worrisome. If the sales figures are inaccurate, or outright willfully wrong and deliberately misleading, that's a huge problem.

[Berklon]

There seem to be two contentious issues: mainstream media puff pieces; reliability of data. On puff pieces, I agree that real estate articles tend to go to the cheerleading end of the continuum. But what if the Star article slammed Hamilton: "what a dump, no one should ever consider moving there"? Would we be as equally cynical and agree with that position, or rise to defend the city?

That would be going too far the other way then - which also isn't good. Realtors are trying to create this illusion that there's a huge influx of people moving from Toronto to Hamilton and causing massive bidding wars. This is the same thing they did with "foreign money" buying up everything in Toronto and Vancouver - when in fact it only represented a small fraction of the sales.

In any case, this is Hamilton. There are plenty of issues that make the idea of it being a highly sought after place to live. An "article" like that isn't grounded in reality.

The reliability of data is worrisome. If the sales figures are inaccurate, or outright willfully wrong and deliberately misleading, that's a huge problem.

The data has always been massaged in the sellers favour. One practice that makes for inaccurate numbers are the relisting of houses under different MLS numbers. A house that goes unsold gets relisted with a lower price - but because it's a different MLS number, it doesn't show that the house prices was reduced - it gets recorded as the original selling price. The "days on market" also gets reset. Just look at realtor.ca today and you can see they didn't do a proper cleanup of the site - as some houses are shown more than once but with different MLS numbers... there's a house in the east end that has 3 entries with different numbers.

[thistleclub]

More houses, less price rise (http://www.thespec.com/news-story/3856561-more-houses-less-price-rise/)
(Hamilton Spectator, June 25 2013)

Hamilton's home sales and housing starts will pick up at the end of this year and through 2014, predicts the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

In its market forecast (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64303/64303_2013_B01.pdf?fr=1372199388251) the agency projects there will be more listings in 2014. With a larger inventory will come a more modest average home price increase than the region has seen over the last several years, CMHC predicts.

The agency forecasts a net migration into Hamilton of 5,200 people per year, including a higher number of first-time homebuyers and retirees looking for better affordability than what the Greater Toronto Area offers.

Overall, CMHC sees a shift to a balanced market from the sellers' market evident in the region over the past several years. Listings are expected to come in at 21,500 in 2014, up from 19,000 forecasted for this year and 18,407 in 2012.

Hamilton's economy will "remain subdued" until the third quarter of this year, when the U.S. recovery will begin to improve manufacturing employment, says the report.

[thistleclub]

From RAHB’s June 2013 Market Report (http://www.rahb.ca/2013/07/listings-sales-average-sale-price-all-up/):

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported 1367 properties sold through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in June. This represents a 2.7 per cent increase in the number of sales over June of last year. There were 1980 properties listed in June, an increase of 2.5 per cent over June of last year. The average sale price of $397,374 was an increase of 8.5 per cent over the previous June. Seasonally adjusted sales of residential properties were 4.4 per cent higher than the same month last year, with the average sale price up 8.8 per cent for the month. Seasonally adjusted numbers of new listings were 2.2 per cent higher than the same month last year… Year to date, listings are down 1.1 per cent compared to the same period last year, while sales are 3.3 per cent lower. The average sale price for the first half of the year is 7.7 per cent higher than the same period last year.

Crunching RAHB's sales numbers for Jan (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-January1.jpg), Feb (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-February.jpg), Mar (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-March.jpg), Apr (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-April.jpg), May (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/May-Statistical.jpg) and June (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-June.jpg) gives us:

Average Sale Price, Jan-June 2013

Flamborough $533,311
Burlington $482,212
Ancaster $463,265
Waterdown $443,036
Dundas $382,127
Grimsby $356,119
Glanbrook $332,118
Stoney Creek $323,947
Hamilton West $317,910
Caledonia $287,056
Hamilton Mountain $278,751
Dunnville $204,492
Hamilton East $203,639
Hamilton Centre $173,399

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Jan-June 2013 vs Jan-June 2012

Flamborough $56,631
Waterdown $54,501
Burlington $28,724
Hamilton West $26,522
Dundas $22,026
Caledonia $19,967
Grimsby $14,135
Hamilton Mountain $13,642
Hamilton Centre $12,844
Ancaster $12,120
Stoney Creek $11,756
Dunnville $11,694
Hamilton East $5,487
Glanbrook -$7,992

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Jan-June 2013 vs Jan-June 2012

Waterdown 14.03%
Flamborough 11.88%
Hamilton West 9.10%
Hamilton Centre 8.00%
Caledonia 7.48%
Burlington 6.33%
Dundas 6.12%
Dunnville 6.06%
Hamilton Mountain 5.15%
Grimsby 4.13%
Stoney Creek 3.77%
Hamilton East 2.77%
Ancaster 2.69%
Glanbrook -2.35%

Source: Collated from RAHB Market Activity Reports

[SteelTown]

Hamilton housing market remains hot in July

http://www.cbc.ca/hamilton/news/story/2013/08/07/hamilton-housing-prices-remain.html

The housing market in Hamilton stayed hot in July, according to new numbers from the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB).

The average sale price for residential properties in the city came in at $383,240, up 10.7 per cent over July 2012. Houses that sold were on the market for an average of 43 days, down from 45 from a year before.

“We are still experiencing a sellers' market in our market area,” said RAHB CEO Ross Godsoe. “We thought earlier in the year we might see a more balanced market by this point, but that hasn't been the case.”

Over the past year, housing sales in Hamilton remained relatively strong, while the country, generally, experienced a softening. The national market is set to rev up again, according to the operator of real estate giant Royal LePage.

[thistleclub]

From RAHB’s July 2013 Market Report (http://www.rahb.ca/2013/08/sellers-market-persists):

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported 1288 properties sold through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in July. This represents a 3.9 per cent increase in the number of sales over July of last year. The average sale price of $387,108 was an increase of 10.7 per cent over the previous July. There were 1852 properties listed in July, an increase of 5.4 per cent over July of last year. End-of-month listing inventory is 3.3 per cent lower than last year. Seasonally adjusted sales of residential properties were less than one per cent lower than the same month last year, with the average sale price up 12.5 per cent for the month. Seasonally adjusted numbers of new listings were 1.8 per cent higher than the same month last year… Year to date, listings are down less than one per cent compared to the same period last year, while sales are 2.4 per cent lower. The average sale price for the first half of the year is 8.1 per cent higher than the same period last year.


Average Sale Price, July 2013 (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-July.jpg)

Flamborough $565,819
Ancaster $516,008
Burlington $496,928
Waterdown $394,361
Dundas $382,364
Glanbrook $343,065
Grimsby $337,873
Stoney Creek $334,526
Hamilton West $310,793
Caledonia $301,338
Hamilton Mountain $287,946
Hamilton East $206,369
Dunnville $181,692
Hamilton Centre $180,321

Average Sale Price Increase ($), July 2013 vs July 2012

Ancaster $61,578
Caledonia $56,309
Burlington $50,132
Dundas $43,187
Hamilton Mountain $25,139
Hamilton East $16,688
Stoney Creek $14,673
Hamilton Centre $12,102
Flamborough $11,765
Waterdown -$10,389
Hamilton West -$15,027
Glanbrook -$18,394
Dunnville -$21,274
Grimsby -$24,578

Average Sale Price Increase (%), July 2013 vs July 2012

Caledonia 22.98%
Ancaster 13.55%
Dundas 12.73%
Burlington 11.22%
Hamilton Mountain 9.57%
Hamilton East 8.80%
Hamilton Centre 7.19%
Stoney Creek 4.59%
Flamborough 2.12%
Waterdown -2.57%
Hamilton West -4.61%
Glanbrook -5.09%
Grimsby -6.78%
Dunnville -10.48%

[thistleclub]

Crunching RAHB's sales numbers for Jan (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-January1.jpg), Feb (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-February.jpg), Mar (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-March.jpg), Apr (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-April.jpg), May (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/May-Statistical.jpg), June (http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-June.jpg) and July ( http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-July.jpg) gives us:

Average Sale Price, Jan-July 2013

Flamborough $537,955
Burlington $484,314
Ancaster $470,799
Waterdown $436,082
Dundas $382,161
Grimsby $353,512
Glanbrook $333,681
Stoney Creek $325,459
Hamilton West $316,893
Caledonia $289,096
Hamilton Mountain $280,065
Hamilton East $204,029
Dunnville $201,235
Hamilton Centre $174,388

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Jan-July 2013 vs Jan-July 2012

Flamborough $50,221
Waterdown $45,231
Burlington $31,782
Caledonia $25,159
Dundas $25,049
Hamilton West $20,586
Ancaster $19,184
Hamilton Mountain $15,284
Hamilton Centre $12,738
Stoney Creek $12,172
Grimsby $8,605
Hamilton East $7,087
Dunnville $6,938
Glanbrook -$9,478

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Jan-July 2013 vs Jan-July 2012

Waterdown 11.57%
Flamborough 10.30%
Caledonia 9.53%
Hamilton Centre 7.88%
Burlington 7.02%
Dundas 7.01%
Hamilton West 6.95%
Hamilton Mountain 5.77%
Ancaster 4.25%
Stoney Creek 3.89%
Hamilton East 3.60%
Dunnville 3.57%
Grimsby 2.49%
Glanbrook -2.76%

Source: Collated from RAHB Market Activity Reports

[thistleclub]

Broad brushstrokes for the Hamilton CMA from CMHC’s latest (http://www.cmhc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2013/2013-08-09-0816.cfm?WT.mc_id=BMAC1101I_WD01E) Preliminary Housing Start Data ( http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64695/64695_2013_M08.pdf?fr=1376150317052):

July (2012 starts / 2013 starts)
Single Detached 124 /127 (+2%)
All Others 95 / 47 (-47%)
Total 219 / 174 (-21%)

January-July (2012 starts / 2013 starts)
Single Detached 910 / 693 (-24%)
All Others 1,068 / 1,091 (+2%)
Total 1,978 / 1,784 (-10%)

[thistleclub]

National context for July's home price increases (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=6225464&postcount=528):

Toronto, Hamilton lead real estate recovery (http://www.thestar.com/business/2013/08/14/toronto_hamilton_lead_real_estate_recovery.html)
(Toronto Star, Vanessa Lu, Aug 14 2013)

Canadian home resale prices increased in July, boosted by strong gains in Hamilton and Toronto.

According to the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index (http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx), which is a weighted index of 11 cities across Canada, prices increased 1.9 per cent last month from a year earlier.

Toronto saw gains of 3.4 per cent, while Hamilton was up 6.7 per cent.

“Hamilton is an up market by any respect,” said National Bank senior economist Marc Pinsonneault. “The only weakness we see in Toronto is that there are many unsold new condos, including those on pre-sale and under construction.

“That’s the only part of the Toronto market that you can say is weak,” he said.

On a monthly basis, the Teranet-National Bank House Price Index rose only 0.7 per cent in July, weaker than the average increase of 1 per cent seen over the last 12 years.

[Berklon]

I guess seeing the same houses on MLS go unsold month after month is a figment of my imagination.

My brother's been trying to sell his house for a few months and still nothing - even after a few price reductions.

[movingtohamilton]

I guess seeing the same houses on MLS go unsold month after month is a figment of my imagination.

My brother's been trying to sell his house for a few months and still nothing - even after a few price reductions.

Sorry to hear he's still got the house for sale. So much about real estate is local. The aggregate data may be reliable but area-by-area sales are important. In my area this spring/summer, almost all houses are selling within days or a couple of weeks of hitting the market. A couple still sit unsold, and there is likely a good reason for that: condition of property; proximity to traffic/noise, tenants who obstruct showings, etc.

[Pearlstreet]

I guess seeing the same houses on MLS go unsold month after month is a figment of my imagination.

My brother's been trying to sell his house for a few months and still nothing - even after a few price reductions.

Seems to be hot pockets. There has been about five sold homes along Victoria Ave within the past two months. All have been between 104,000 - 260,000 mark.

[thistleclub]

Another angle on the RAHB numbers.

Number of Sales, Jan-July 2013 vs Jan-July 2012

Burlington 1976 / 2101
Hamilton Mountain 1139 / 1180
Hamilton Centre 695 / 678
Stoney Creek 578 / 640
Hamilton East 496 / 527
Hamilton West 412 / 468
Ancaster 390 / 336
Glanbrook 268 / 232
Grimsby 247 / 266
Waterdown 233 / 225
Dundas 195 / 229
Flamborough 140 / 181
Caledonia 75 / 113
Dunnville 54 / 57
TOTAL 6,898 / 7,233

Volume of Sales ($), Jan-July 2013 vs Jan-July 2012

Burlington $957,004,464.00 / $950,770,026.14
Hamilton Mountain $318,993,875.54 / $312,441,072.60
Stoney Creek $188,115,053.46 / $200,503,225.60
Ancaster $183,611,723.10 / $151,742,401.44
Hamilton West $130,559,858.32 / $138,671,610.48
Hamilton Centre $121,199,660.00 / $109,598,503.38
Hamilton East $101,198,453.44 / $103,788,586.83
Waterdown $101,607,206.19 / $87,941,571.75
Glanbrook $89,426,623.24 / $79,612,920.48
Grimsby $87,317,464.00 / $91,745,376.38
Flamborough $75,313,700.00 / $88,279,801.51
Dundas $74,521,422.30 / $81,778,714.41
Caledonia $21,682,264.50 / $29,824,896.82
Dunnville $10,866,697.56 / $11,074,945.53
TOTAL $2,461,418,465.65 / $2,427,773,653.35

Increase/Decrease in Sales (#), Jan-July 2013 vs Jan-July 2012

Ancaster 54
Glanbrook 36
Hamilton Centre 17
Waterdown 8
Dunnville -3
Grimsby -19
Hamilton East -31
Dundas -34
Caledonia -38
Flamborough -41
Hamilton Mountain -41
Hamilton West -56
Stoney Creek -62
Burlington -125

Increase/Decrease in Sales (%), Jan-July 2013 vs Jan-July 2012

Ancaster 16.07%
Glanbrook 15.52%
Waterdown 3.56%
Hamilton Centre 2.51%
Hamilton Mountain -3.47%
Dunnville -5.26%
Hamilton East -5.88%
Burlington -5.95%
Grimsby -7.14%
Stoney Creek -9.69%
Hamilton West -11.97%
Dundas -14.85%
Flamborough -22.65%
Caledonia -33.63%

Source: Collated/Reverse-Engineered from RAHB Market Activity Reports

[thistleclub]

CMHC PR:

Housing Starts Forecast to Stabilize, Resales to Gain Momentum (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2013/2013-08-15-0816.cfm)

OTTAWA, August 15, 2013 — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) expects total housing starts to be lower in 2013 compared to 2012, mostly due to moderation observed in the first half of 2013. Housing starts are expected to stabilize in the second half of 2013 before increasing modestly in 2014 as employment, economic growth and net migration improve, according to CMHC’s third quarter 2013 Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition. (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/61500/61500_2013_Q03.pdf?fr=1376706464382)

“CMHC expects single-detached units and housing units built in the Western provinces to account for a higher share of total housing starts over the forecast horizon,” said Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Chief Economist for CMHC.

On an annual basis, housing starts are expected to range between 177,100 to 188,500 units in 2013, with a point forecast of 182,800 units, down from 214,827 units in 2012. In 2014, housing starts are expected to range from 165,600 to 207,600 units, with a point forecast of 186,600 units.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®2) sales are expected to range between 431,600 to 466,200 units in 2013, with a point forecast of 448,900 units, about equal with the 453,372 in 2012. In 2014, sales are expected to range from 437,700 to 497,500 units, with an increase in the point forecast to 467,600 units.

The average MLS® price is forecast to be between $369,100 and $380,500 in 2013 and between $371,700 and $393,900 in 2014. CMHC’s point forecast for the average MLS® price calls for a 2.7 per cent gain to $374,800 in 2013 and a further 2.1 per cent gain to $382,800 in 2014.

[thistleclub]

From CHMC’s Housing Now - Hamilton and Brantford (July 2013) (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64227/64227_2013_M07.pdf?fr=1377832189768):

“In the second quarter of 2013, the seasonally adjusted existing home average price in the Hamilton CMA increased sharply suggesting the housing market recovery has gained traction. Strong second quarter resale activity has propelled Hamilton’s average price growth to its highest level since the second quarter of 2009. Essentially, the number of sales during the second quarter 2013 increased faster than the number of new listings, which has resulted in tighter market conditions. Average existing home price increases were widespread across all local areas, with the exception of Grimsby and Hamilton East, where prices declined modestly.

A shift in demand towards high-end homes helped strengthening Hamilton’s average price growth this second quarter. The market share of existing homes sold at $750,000 or more increased to seven per cent in the second quarter 2013 from five per cent during the same quarter last year. The market share of homes sold at $400,000 or more reached 36 per cent up from 31 per cent in the second quarter of 2012. Conversely, existing homes that cost less than $200,000 lost market share due in part to the limited supply of low-end homes."

Housing Starts by Submarket and by Dwelling Type, Q1&Q2 2013 (Q1&Q2 2012) (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64227/64227_2013_M07.pdf?fr=1377832189768
)

Hamilton CMA
Single: 566 (786)
Semi: 18 (52)
Row: 425 (517)
Apt & Other: 601 (404)
Total YTD: 1,610 (1,759)
% Change: -8.5


Hamilton
Single: 517 (703)
Semi: 18 (52)
Row: 303 (357)
Apt & Other: 99 (66)
Total YTD: 937 (1,178)
% Change: -20.5

Former City of Hamilton (Wards 1-8)
Single: 117 (123)
Semi: 2 (4)
Row: 13 (64)
Apt & Other: 99 (66)
Total YTD: 231 (257)
% Change: -10.1

Stoney Creek
Single: 64 (94)
Semi: 2 (0)
Row: 61 (120)
Apt & Other: 0 (0)
Total YTD: 127 (214)
% Change: -40.7

Ancaster
Single: 107 (131)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 32 (51)
Apt & Other: 0 (0)
Total YTD: 139 (182)
% Change: -23.6

Dundas
Single: 3 (3)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 0 (0)
Apt & Other: 0 (0)
Total YTD: 3 (3)
% Change: 0.0

Flamborough
Single: 90 (209)
Semi: 14 (32)
Row: 81 (38)
Apt & Other: 0 (0)
Total YTD: 185 (279)
% Change: -33.7

Glanbrook
Single: 136 (143)
Semi: 0 (16)
Row: 116 (84)
Apt & Other: 0 (0)
Total YTD: 252 (243)
% Change: 3.7


Burlington
Single: 31 (61)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 110 (90)
Apt & Other: 502 (338)
Total YTD: 643 (489)
% Change: 31.5


Grimsby
Single: 18 (22)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 12 (70)
Apt & Other: 0 (0)
Total YTD: 30 (92)
% Change: -67.4

[HillStreetBlues]

Housing Starts by Submarket and by Dwelling Type, Q1&Q2 2013 (Q1&Q2 2012) (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64227/64227_2013_M07.pdf?fr=1377832189768
)


Some of those are very big decreases in starts.

Housing starts are a leading indicator- the builders know or suspect what’s coming, and plan accordingly. So sales might be higher (though they are much lower this year) depending on when they’re booked, and construction itself might be healthy- but that’s all based on orders from one or two years ago. You could see a big decline in construction in a year or two from now, based on these numbers of starts.

[thistleclub]

Treating singles/semis as low-density and row/apartment/other as medium-/high-density affords us an interesting perspective on the Jan-June starts:

Hamilton CMA
Low-Density: 584 (838)
% Change: -30.3
Med/High-Density: 1,026 (921)
% Change: 11.4

Hamilton
Low-Density: 535 (755)
% Change: -29.1
Med/High-Density: 402 (423)
% Change: -5.0

Former City of Hamilton (Wards 1-8)
Low-Density: 119 (127)
% Change: -6.3
Med/High-Density: 112 (130)
% Change: -13.9

Stoney Creek
Low-Density: 66 (94)
% Change: -29.8
Med/High-Density: 61 (120)
% Change: -49.2

Ancaster
Low-Density: 107 (131)
% Change: -18.3
Med/High-Density: 32 (51)
% Change: -37.3

Dundas
Low-Density: 3 (3)
% Change: 0.0
Med/High-Density: 0 (0)
% Change: 0.0

Flamborough
Low-Density: 104 (241)
% Change: -56.8
Med/High-Density: 81 (38)
% Change: 113.2

Glanbrook
Low-Density: 136 (159)
% Change: -14.5
Med/High-Density: 116 (84)
% Change: 38.1

Burlington
Low-Density: 31 (61)
% Change: -49.2
Med/High-Density: 612 (428)
% Change: 43.0

Grimsby
Low-Density: 18 (22)
% Change: -18.2
Med/High-Density: 12 (70)
% Change: -82.9

[Beedok]

How did Medium/High Density fall across the whole CMA more than the city proper yet Burlington saw a significant increase?

[thistleclub]

How did Medium/High Density fall across the whole CMA more than the city proper yet Burlington saw a significant increase?

Good catch. Added 2012's CMA Apts/Other to YTD Starts, hence the distortion. Fixed.

Hamilton CMA
Low-Density: 584 (838)
% Change: -30.3
Med/High-Density: 1,026 (921)
% Change: 11.4

Hamilton
Low-Density: 535 (755)
% Change: -29.1
Med/High-Density: 402 (423)
% Change: -5.0

Former City of Hamilton (Wards 1-8)
Low-Density: 119 (127)
% Change: -6.3
Med/High-Density: 112 (130)
% Change: -13.9

Stoney Creek
Low-Density: 66 (94)
% Change: -29.8
Med/High-Density: 61 (120)
% Change: -49.2

Ancaster
Low-Density: 107 (131)
% Change: -18.3
Med/High-Density: 32 (51)
% Change: -37.3

Dundas
Low-Density: 3 (3)
% Change: 0.0
Med/High-Density: 0 (0)
% Change: 0.0

Flamborough
Low-Density: 104 (241)
% Change: -56.8
Med/High-Density: 81 (38)
% Change: 113.2

Glanbrook
Low-Density: 136 (159)
% Change: -14.5
Med/High-Density: 116 (84)
% Change: 38.1

Burlington
Low-Density: 31 (61)
% Change: -49.2
Med/High-Density: 612 (428)
% Change: 43.0

Grimsby
Low-Density: 18 (22)
% Change: -18.2
Med/High-Density: 12 (70)
% Change: -82.9

[Beedok]

Ah, glad to help. Also wish Hamilton followed the density of Burlington's building patter.

[thistleclub]

Starts figures in CMHC’s Housing Now (Aug 2013) (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64227/64227_2013_M08.pdf?fr=1378069944635) reflect similar trends.

Starts by Submarket and by Dwelling Type, Jan-July 2013 (Jan-July 2012) (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64227/64227_2013_M08.pdf?fr=1378069944635)

Hamilton CMA
Single: 693 (910)
Semi: 32 (52)
Row: 452 (612)
Apt & Other: 607 (404)
Total YTD: 1,784 (1,978)
% Change: -9.8

Hamilton
Single: 623 (815)
Semi: 32 (52)
Row: 310 (452)
Apt & Other: 105 (66)
Total YTD: 1,070 (1,385)
% Change: -22.7

Former City of Hamilton (Wards 1-8)
Single: 137 (157)
Semi: 2 (4)
Row: 17 (72)
Apt & Other: 99 (66)
Total YTD: 255 (299)
% Change: -14.7

Stoney Creek
Single: 85 (109)
Semi: 10 (0)
Row: 61 (193)
Apt & Other: 0 (0)
Total YTD: 156 (302)
% Change: -48.3

Ancaster
Single: 131 (161)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 32 (51)
Apt & Other: 6 (0)
Total YTD: 169 (212)
% Change: -20.3

Dundas
Single: 3 (4)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 0 (0)
Apt & Other: 0 (0)
Total YTD: 3 (4)
% Change: -25.0

Flamborough
Single: 91 (212)
Semi: 20 (32)
Row: 84 (38)
Apt & Other: 0 (0)
Total YTD: 195 (282)
% Change: -30.9

Glanbrook
Single: 176 (172)
Semi: 0 (16)
Row: 116 (98)
Apt & Other: 0 (0)
Total YTD: 292 (286)
% Change: 2.1

Burlington
Single: 46 (71)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 130 (90)
Apt & Other: 502 (338)
Total YTD: 678 (499)
% Change: 35.9

Grimsby
Single: 24 (24)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 12 (70)
Apt & Other: 0 (0)
Total YTD: 36 (94)
% Change: -61.7


Looking at those starts numbers through a density lens:

Hamilton CMA
Low-Density: 725 (962)
% Change: -24.6
Med/High-Density: 1,059 (1,016)
% Change: 4.2

Hamilton
Low-Density: 655 (867)
% Change: -24.5
Med/High-Density: 415 (518)
% Change: -19.9

Former City of Hamilton (Wards 1-8)
Low-Density: 139 (161)
% Change: -13.7
Med/High-Density: 116 (138)
% Change: -15.9

Stoney Creek
Low-Density: 95 (109)
% Change: -12.8
Med/High-Density: 61 (193)
% Change: -68.4

Ancaster
Low-Density: 131 (161)
% Change: -18.6
Med/High-Density: 38 (51)
% Change: -25.5

Dundas
Low-Density: 3 (4)
% Change: -25.0
Med/High-Density: 0 (0)
% Change: 0.0

Flamborough
Low-Density: 111 (244)
% Change: -54.4
Med/High-Density: 84 (38)
% Change: 121.1

Glanbrook
Low-Density: 176 (188)
% Change: -6.4
Med/High-Density: 116 (98)
% Change: 18.4

Burlington
Low-Density: 46 (71)
% Change: -35.2
Med/High-Density: 632 (428)
% Change: 47.7

Grimsby
Low-Density: 24 (24)
% Change: 0.0
Med/High-Density: 12 (70)
% Change: -82.9


Tallying all of the amalgamated suburbs into a single entry provides yet another snapshot of the Hamilton CMA:

Urban Hamilton (Wards 1-8)
Low-Density: 139 (161)
% Change: -13.7
Med/High-Density: 116 (138)
% Change: -15.9

Suburban Hamilton (Wards 9-15)
Low-Density: 516 (706)
% Change: -26.9
Med/High-Density: 299 (380)
% Change: -21.3

Burlington
Low-Density: 46 (71)
% Change: -35.2
Med/High-Density: 632 (428)
% Change: 47.7

Grimsby
Low-Density: 24 (24)
% Change: 0.0
Med/High-Density: 12 (70)
% Change: -82.9

[SteelTown]

First of CBC Hamilton's four-part series on the city's housing market

Sold! How a hot real estate market is changing Hamilton

For seven years, 446 Dundurn St. S. didn't get much love.

It's a large brick house built in the early 1960s, a former duplex in the Kirkendall neighbourhood. It went on the market a couple of times in the past decade, sometimes for as low as $105,000. And still, no one bit.

Last year, developer Greg Hart bought it for around $200,000. Today, the house that sat vacant for seven years is expected to go for about $600,000.

Such is the strength of Hamilton's booming real estate market. Ten years ago, houses in this quiet neighbourhood near trendy Locke Street sold for an average of $186,267. Today, the average sale price has nearly tripled to $317,089.

Hart probably wouldn't even have bought the Dundurn place 10 years ago, he said, let alone put five months of renovation work into flipping it. But times have changed.

“Locke and Dundurn are very desirable areas. People have always wanted to live here,” said Hart, who owns Skyline Construction. “But in the last few years, it's just been crazy.”

....

Hot neighbourhoods

In certain areas, such as Kirkendall, the growth has been marked.

Proximity to Highway 403, McMaster University and the Locke Street area help, said Ian Davies, a local sales representative with Keller Williams. Nearby Strathcona, with its historically low prices and closeness to major arteries, is also popular with commuters. There, housing prices have increased by 87 per cent in the last 10 years.

Realtors also cite Durand as a hot spot, where housing prices have increased about 70 per cent. Close to downtown and filled with tidy, tree-lined streets, Durand has attractive historic homes. And at least one major condo project is underway.

Stoney Creek Mountain is booming, benefiting from the increased access of the Red Hill Valley Parkway.

In Binbrook, where new subdivisions sprawl over former green space, prices have increased 85 per cent in the last 10 years.

[mattgrande]

Ten years ago, houses in this quiet neighbourhood near trendy Locke Street sold for an average of $186,267. Today, the average sale price has nearly tripled to $317,089.

The price hasn't even doubled... What's this "nearly tripled" they're talking about?

[movingtohamilton]

The price hasn't even doubled... What's this "nearly tripled" they're talking about?

The lack of math skills in teachers who teach math has recently been publicized. This is just one outcome!

[SteelTown]

Sold! Housing boom brings radical changes to a new Waterdown

It's 3 p.m. on Tuesday afternoon, and the Waterdown where Judi Partridge sits is not the Waterdown of 10 years ago.

Cars line up and snarl traffic at stoplights nearby. A few kilometres away, noisy equipment digs into the dusty ground, working on eight developments that are expected to double the town's population of 18,000 in the next five years.

But Partridge, a councillor for Ward 15 in Flamborough, is optimistic.

“Come to Waterdown!” she says. “It's a great place to live and it's going to get better.”

For the past eight years, people have heeded this. Lured by cheaper housing prices and proximity to the QEWand GO service, commuters from the Greater Toronto Area are moving to Waterdown in droves, snatching up palatial single-family homes with prices that creep ever upward. Housing prices in Hamilton in general went up 56 per cent from 2011 to 2012, and continue to increase and buck national trends.

In 2012, the average house price in Waterdown was nearly $400,000, up from $288,060 in 2005. They're also selling faster — it took 33 days, on average to sell a house in 2012, more than a week faster than 2005.

....

The next Milton?

Sherrie Lauza, Araya's neighbour, moved from urban Hamilton to live in a small town. She worries that Waterdown will go the way of Milton — a small town that grows rapidly with new development.

"I'm a little nervous," said Lauza, who moved to Waterdown a year ago. "It may not be long before I move out of Waterdown and try to find another quiet town."

[SteelTown]

Sold! Renters at risk in Hamilton's hot housing market

....

Hamilton's housing prices are hot — trending ever upward, outpacing the country in a number of recent reports. Some neighbourhoods have seen an increase of 100 per cent in housing prices in the past 10 years. But that hot market for buyers and sellers has another side: It's impacting the rental market in unique and worrying ways.

....

Local reports seem to back up Hawker's fears. A 2012 rental market report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation shows that the vacancy rate in Hamilton and Burlington's apartment buildings was 3.5 per cent that year.

....

The trouble with apartments

Unlike condos, where the money from the pre-sale of units can be used as collateral to fund the project, apartment developments need to find other ways to provide the cash to build the project, he said.

“The financing (for rental properties) is very, very hard to secure,” he said. “You need to put aside a tonne of money for a long time and it's not the same yield you get as building condos.”

Larry Huibers, executive director of the Housing Help Centre of Hamilton, worries that as property values increase in the city, the cost of rental units will too.

“It's making existing stock more valuable, so it can bear a higher cost, so rents are continuing to go up, at least to the maximum allowable,” Huibers said.

Local housing experts all have various ideas on how to ease the coming crunch. Pathak worries about the city's plan to implement a bylaw requiring rental units pay an annual licensing fee and meet a new set of standards, which he says could coax more landlords to convert their homes back to single-family residences. The city's planning committee will deal with the issue again on Sept. 17.

....

[thistleclub]

Toronto joins the rest of the country as housing market heats up (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/housing-market-heats-up-as-toronto-climbs-on-bandwagon/article14118668/)
(Globe & Mail, Tara Perkins, Sept 5 2013)

Sales of existing homes in Canada are rebounding, with a number of major cities posting double-digit increases in the number of homes that changed hands in August compared to a year ago.

The Toronto area saw a 21-per-cent rise in sales over the Multiple Listing Service last month. Vancouver’s local real estate board reported a 52.5 per cent year-over-year jump in sales, and Calgary posted a 27.5-per-cent increase. Bank of Montreal economist Sal Guatieri notes that Victoria’s home sales came in 20.7 per cent higher than a year earlier, and Edmonton’s 9.9 per cent.

The numbers suggest that the housing market is strengthening in the wake of a protracted slump.

All told, “Canadian existing home sales could climb around 10 per cent year-over-year with average prices rising about 7 per cent year-over-year (pulled up by the sharp sales rebound in pricey Vancouver),” Mr. Guatieri wrote in a research note.

“After last year’s plunge in response to tighter mortgage rules, home sales have stabilized near normal levels and prices are rising moderately in most regions – a near perfect soft landing with shades of taking flight again,” he wrote.

[HillStreetBlues]

The city's planning committee will deal with the issue again on Sept. 17.

....

That's funny. It would be a lot more accurate to say that the planning committee will again not deal with the issue on Sept. 17.

I don’t agree that the housing bubble that has been developing the last decade is the reason for renters’ woes. The problem goes back way further- rent controls and extremely tenant-favourable legislation in Ontario meant that rental housing construction almost ceased starting as far back as the 80s (the reason that the province repealed rent control in 1991 for new rental units). A hot market doesn’t help the economics of building rental stock versus condominiums, but it’s not the whole story.

That’s exactly right about rental licensing, though. Thousands of property owners will have to choose to either flout the law, or convert their buildings into single-family, and sell. Every neighbourhood in the lower city has a huge number of improperly-zoned multiplexes- when they come on to the market as single family homes, that will be another downward pressure on prices. And, of course, it will mean a big increase in rents.

[movingtohamilton]

...
That’s exactly right about rental licensing, though. Thousands of property owners will have to choose to either flout the law, or convert their buildings into single-family, and sell. Every neighbourhood in the lower city has a huge number of improperly-zoned multiplexes- when they come on to the market as single family homes, that will be another downward pressure on prices. And, of course, it will mean a big increase in rents.

Interesting point, HillStreetBlues. When we were looking for a home in Hamilton, on the market there were a large number of single-family homes that had been converted to multi-plexes. We knew what the costs would be to convert back to a single-family home, and passed on all of them.

The sheer volume of these (illegal?) conversions was daunting, and it took us weeks to find a home in the downtown area that we wanted to live in.

[drpgq]

The other factor why no one builds big apartment complexes in Hamilton is that the property tax right on those apartments has been way higher than for single family housing. Which doesn't make a lot of sense, except that home owners vote more than renters.

[Beedok]

Is this appropriate to post here? (http://www.cbc.ca/hamilton/news/story/2013/09/05/hamilton-housing-commuters.html)
The main thing I noticed wasn't really housing related though but commuter related:
Who works in Hamilton? Top 5 places where Hamilton workers live:
Hamilton: 139,470 (78.44 per cent)
Burlington: 7,755 (4.36)
Haldimand: 5,070 (2.85)
Grimsby: 3,160 (1.78)
Brantford: 2,960 (1.66)

I was surprised to see Brantford so close to Grimsby for total numbers. I realise percentage wise it's pretty tiny for Brantford, but hopefully that will grow. :)

[matt602]

If I remember correctly, the stats for where Hamiltonians work is basically the same figures. According to the mayor though, theres some kind of insane number of Hamiltonians who work in Toronto...

[Beedok]

Both stats were in the article.

[matt602]

Both stats were in the article.

Fair enough, I should have actually read it. Even still the top 2 spots are the same and Toronto only clocks in at 3%.

[thistleclub]

Rental apartment construction set to boom (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/rental-apartment-construction-set-to-boom/article14180744/)
(Globe & Mail, Tara Perkins, Sept 8 2013)

Some of Canada’s biggest real estate owners, from pension funds to REITs to insurers, are showing more interest in developing new apartment buildings in major cities than they have in decades, a phenomenon that could change the way renters live.

The emerging trend comes in the face of what industry players characterize as a near-perfect storm: The cost of buying older apartment buildings has jumped; financing for new construction is relatively inexpensive due to low interest rates; rental demand and rents are rising; fears of provincial rent control regimes are subsiding; condo markets are weakening; and institutional real estate owners are looking for places to park their money.

“For the first time in generations it’s starting to make sense to build rental apartment buildings in big cities,” said Macquarie Securities analyst Michael Smith. “I think we’re in the early stages of a new era. If condo prices correct some more and mortgage rules get tougher, I see purpose-built rentals in big cities starting to fill the void.”

Added to that are four rounds of tighter government mortgage insurance rules, while the country’s banking regulator is considering tightening mortgage lending rules for banks.

“Every time Ottawa changes the mortgage rules and makes it tougher to buy a house or a condo, that’s going to push people into the rental market,” Mr. Smith said.

In the past 20 to 25 years there has been a lack of new apartments, said Philip Fraser, the chief executive of Halifax-based Killam Properties Inc., a publicly traded company with apartments in five provinces.

There has been some apartment construction in recent decades in smaller markets, but the major cities have, by and large, seen a dearth of new supply. In its place, condos owned by investors who obtain tenants have become the de facto new rental supply.

“We’ve all basically been buying existing product,” said Mr. Fraser. “It’s just come to the tipping point where the lack of supply, increasing values, and increasing rents have us looking at ourselves and saying we are prepared to be a developer, and to build our own product.”

[thistleclub]

Hamilton real estate 'a seller's market,' RAHB president says (http://www.cbc.ca/hamilton/news/story/2013/09/09/hamilton-real-estate-report-august.html)
(CBC Hamilton, Staff, Sept 9 2013)

Hamilton's housing market continues to face a shortage of listings even though the number of new listings has steadily increased over the summer months, according to the latest report from the local real estate association.

New listings increased by 8 per cent in August compared to the same time a year ago, according to a monthly report by the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB). But the association's president says there is still a gap between supply and demand.

"We are into a seller's market right now,” RAHB president Bruce Moran told CBC News. “The shortage of listings makes it tougher for the buyer.”

The report also shows that sales increased by more than 10 per cent in August compared to July and by 8.8 per cent compared to August 2012. Meanwhile, the average property sale price saw a 5-per-cent leap from last August to $383,561, but it's slightly down from the previous three months. The average days on market remained constant at 45 days for both condominiums and freehold properties.

[thistleclub]

The City has posted Rental Housing Licensing By-law PED10049(m) (http://www.hamilton.ca/NR/rdonlyres/C4C2807F-3859-4F9A-B219-7B2FD8D2AC63/0/RentalHousingLicensingByLawSeptReport.pdf), a report for the Planning Committee. Staff is recommending an annual license fee of $100 per rental dwelling unit, possibly alongside a $108 Zoning Verification Fee (if required), effective April 1, 2017.

Details on delegations (http://www.hamilton.ca/CityServices/Public-meetings-and-consultations/Index.htm):

Please note that this is not a public hearing item. If you wish to speak to this item, please fill out a delegation form by September 16, 2013 at noon. If you require further information about delegations, please contact Vanessa.Robichaud@hamilton.ca

Date/Time: Tuesday, September 17, 2013. The Rental Housing Licensing report is one of a number of items to be discussed at the Planning Committee meeting, which begins at 9:30am

Location: Council Chambers, 2nd floor of City Hall, 71 Main Street West

[thistleclub]

From RAHB’s August 2013 Market Report (http://www.rahb.ca/2013/09/august-real-estate-market-experiences-increases-in-listings-sales-average-price/ ):

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported 1203 properties sold through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August. This represents an 8.8 per cent increase in the number of sales over August of last year. The average sale price of $383,561 was an increase of five per cent over the previous August. There were 1,640 properties listed in August, an increase of eight per cent over August of last year. End-of-month listing inventory is 2.6 per cent lower than last year. Seasonally adjusted sales of residential properties were 8.8 per cent higher than the same month last year, with the average sale price up three per cent for the month. Seasonally adjusted numbers of new listings were 8.8 per cent higher than the same month last year… Year to date, listings are down less than one per cent compared to the same period last year, while sales are 1.2 per cent lower. The average sale price for the first half of the year is 7.7 per cent higher than the same period last year.

Average Sale Price, Aug 2013 ( http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-August.jpg)

Burlington $488,823
Flamborough $479,875
Ancaster $460,081
Waterdown $454,752
Dundas $430,970
Glanbrook $359,962
Grimsby $352,276
Stoney Creek $336,056
Hamilton West $315,305
Caledonia $284,968
Hamilton Mountain $278,803
Hamilton East $235,177
Dunnville $184,200
Hamilton Centre $181,848

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Aug 2013 vs Aug 2012

Flamborough $69,886
Dundas $61,782
Hamilton West $50,524
Grimsby $33,877
Hamilton East $33,834
Glanbrook $28,237
Burlington $24,421
Caledonia $21,495
Stoney Creek $20,638
Hamilton Mountain $18,201
Hamilton Centre $15,822
Waterdown $13,281
Dunnville $950
Ancaster -$4,476

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Aug 2013 vs Aug 2012

Hamilton West 19.08%
Flamborough 17.04%
Hamilton East 16.80%
Dundas 16.73%
Grimsby 10.64%
Hamilton Centre 9.53%
Glanbrook 8.52%
Caledonia 8.16%
Hamilton Mountain 7.00%
Stoney Creek 6.54%
Burlington 5.26%
Waterdown 3.01%
Dunnville 0.52%
Ancaster -0.96%

[Pearlstreet]

Apartment-licensing plan on back burner (http://http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4084209-apartment-licensing-plan-on-back-burner/)
Councillors favour beefed up property enforcement, formation of stakeholder committed.
By Matthew Van Dongen (The Hamilton Spectator; Sept 18th, 2013)


City councillors have shelved a controversial rental licensing bylaw in the face of opposition from landlords, affordable housing advocates — and surprisingly, their own planning director. The city planning committee tabled a decision Tuesday on the latest staff proposal to license rental housing with six units or fewer, despite changes designed to delay enforcement and make it cheaper for landlords.

Instead, five councillors endorsed $455,000 worth of annual, permanently beefed up property standards enforcement and a late suggestion from Chad Collins to form a stakeholder committee to explore ways to deal with an estimated 8,000 illegal apartments across the city.

"This is a chance for us to offer an olive branch to landlords and have them work with us, instead of dumping fees and fines on all of them, whether they're good or bad," said Collins.

"If it doesn't work, we can always go back to the (licensing) bylaw. But after today, I have to question who exactly is asking us to champion this thing."

The recommendation must survive a council ratification vote next week.

But the likelihood of that result increased Tuesday after planning director Tim McCabe, in response to a councillor's question, revealed a personal preference for proactive bylaw enforcement over the licensing recommendation in the official staff report.

"That sort of took the air out of everyone's tires," said Councillor Terry Whitehead, who earlier made an impassioned plea for councillors to "step up" and protect vulnerable tenants in substandard housing with a licensing bylaw.

"I'm certainly not willing to abandon (the licensing bylaw) completely, but I'm willing to park it for now. For those landlords who want to work with us on an alternate solution, this is your window."

The staff report had suggested a $100 a year licensing fee — as opposed to the original $192 fee — and delayed enforcement until 2017 in a bid to placate upset landlords. The combination of beefed up enforcement and licensing would have required 14 new hires and about $550,000 in annual costs at the outset.

But affordable housing advocates told councillors Tuesday they were more worried about the human costs.

"I fear the eviction of a lot of people with no plan to help them," said Renee Westelaar, who spoke on behalf of the Social Planning and research Council.

She noted the city's own suggestion — that 30 per cent of apartments in converted homes could be shut down as illegal under the licensing scheme.

That dramatic shift could push thousands of people out of affordable homes and into emergency shelters, she said.

Landlords and realtors urged councillors to stick with enforcement of existing bylaws — or at least delay a licensing decision until after a new comprehensive zoning bylaw comes into force.

Those evolving rules could naturally turn some "illegal" units into acceptable examples of needed residential intensification, said Donna Bacher, who belongs to the local realtors' association.

"Go after the bad landlord … chase him out of my industry," said Arun Pathak, a member of the Hamilton-Burlington apartment association. "But don't burden all landlords and tenants (with licensing costs.)"

While most delegates to Tuesday's meeting opposed licensing, other residents sent letters supporting the plan as a way to crack down on converted homes stuffed with too many rental units.

"Reliance on existing bylaws is inadequate," wrote Westdale resident Tibor Bocz, who saw the bylaw as a new tool to address "unsafe and poorly maintained" properties in his neighbourhood.

That's the problem the new committee will have to tackle in the next year, said Collins.

Options for discussion could include future zoning bylaw amendments or reduced costs for rezoning applications, he said.

"I think it's at least worthwhile to have the discussion," he said. "But we can't just wave a magic wand and legalize thousands of apartments, either. Some of them just aren't appropriate ... and some just aren't safe."

[HillStreetBlues]

This isn’t ideal. Is the message that the municipal government wants to send that, “we’re going to ignore improperly zoned rental units for now, but at any point we might change our minds again and shut them all down, and in so doing make the business more expensive for everyone else as well”?

A casual look at rental properties listed in Hamilton shows that most smaller multi-unit buildings are not properly zoned. You take a fair bit of risk in buying one of these right now, as I see it. I think that they are priced accordingly. That’s logical, of course- you have to pay more for safer investments. At the very least, the onerous cost of getting a property rezoned should be discounted from the price. And, if you listen to Terry Whitehead, you might believe that you need to assume that you can only operate the rental for x years, and need to get value from it accordingly.

I’m in the west end, and there are multi-unit houses that are not properly zoned. Most look pretty good, are well kept-up and keep to the character of the neighbourhood reasonably well. But it’s clear to me that what the City is doing will not encourage property owners to invest in housing in Hamilton. If you have a multi-unit in Hamilton (let’s say in an improving neighbourhood) that is not zoned for that use (and there are a lot of them), you’re a lot less likely to invest in your property knowing that the City might shut you down in a few years. It’s a much more sound decision to extract value from it without putting any back in- if you thought about putting in a twenty thousand dollar kitchen to attract better tenants, you might think again to hear Whitehead and Collins say that they “may” revisit licensing down the road, and make you tear it right out.

Anyway, the committee has kicked the can down the road. After so many claims about how unsafe tenants are, even I was thinking that something different should be done. They prefer to do no conclusion.

[kwoldtimer]

What is the timeframe for the "comprehensive zoning bylaw" referred to in the article. Is it even a thing?

[SteelTown]

Hamilton just one home short of matching sales record

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/hamilton-just-one-home-short-of-matching-sales-record-1.1928439

Hamilton home sales just missed breaking a record in September.

A total of 1207 homes were sold last month, according to the latest numbers from the Relators Association of Hamilton-Burlington. That’s just one short of the record set four years ago, in Sept. 2009.

“Sales and listings for the month of September were both well above the 10 year average for the month,” said Ross Godsoe, CEO for the RAHB.

And home prices in Hamilton are still on the rise.

The RAHB reports the average home price for September was $392,013, an increase of nearly seven per cent from Sept. 2012.

It’s even a noticeable increase from just one month prior. August numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association show the average home price in Hamilton as $385,444. The city followed a national trend of increasing prices across the country. Nine provinces and territories saw increases at the end of the summer, according to CREA.

The CREA has not yet released its numbers for real estate prices across the nation for September.

[thistleclub]

From RAHB’s September 2013 Market Report (http://www.rahb.ca/2013/10/september-property-sales-close-to-record/):

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported 1207 properties sold through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system in September…. The average sale price of $392,013 was an increase of 6.7 per cent over the previous September. There were 1953 properties listed in September, an increase of 5.8 per cent over September of last year. End-of-month listing inventory is 6.8 per cent lower than last year. Seasonally adjusted sales of residential properties were 21.4 per cent higher than the same month last year, with the average sale price up eight per cent for the month. Seasonally adjusted numbers of new listings were 1.4 per cent higher than the same month last year.

Average Sale Price, Sept 2013 ( http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-September.jpg)

Ancaster $560,296
Flamborough $520,481
Burlington $501,650
Waterdown $454,085
Dundas $395,644
Grimsby $371,818
Glanbrook $345,967
Stoney Creek $329,695
Hamilton West $311,883
Caledonia $287,044
Hamilton Mountain $284,599
Hamilton East $212,232
Hamilton Centre $187,408
Dunnville $183,850

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Sept 2013 vs Sept 2012

Flamborough $142,092
Dundas $62,983
Waterdown $62,088
Burlington $57,480
Ancaster $42,388
Caledonia $33,044
Hamilton Centre $31,112
Stoney Creek $23,448
Hamilton Mountain $17,380
Hamilton West $12,623
Hamilton East $5,350
Glanbrook -$6,043
Dunnville -$13,450
Grimsby -$42,118

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Sept 2013 vs Sept 2012

Flamborough 37.55%
Hamilton Centre 19.91%
Dundas 18.93%
Waterdown 15.84%
Caledonia 13.00%
Burlington 12.94%
Ancaster 8.18%
Stoney Creek 7.66%
Hamilton Mountain 6.50%
Hamilton West 4.22%
Hamilton East 2.57%
Glanbrook -1.72%
Dunnville -6.82%
Grimsby -10.18%

Source: RAHB Market Reports


As always, take it with a grain of salt.

[coalminecanary]

Mountain coucillors should take a long hard look at that list and make a note of where they are in the order. Things are happening downtown and we'd thank them to get out of the way and let us grow.

[markbarbera]

Judging by those numbers, real estate in Flamborough is on fire. I knew it was great but all of a sudden housing prices are right up there with Ancaster and Burlington. With all the talk about Waterdown being on the up and up, I haden't noticed the jump in Flamborough. 37% annual increase is outstanding.

[thistleclub]

Crunching RAHB's sales numbers (http://www.rahb.ca/category/press-release/market-reports/) for January through September we get a Q1-Q3 2013 snapshot:

Average Sale Price, Jan-Sept 2013

Flamborough $529,560
Burlington $486,741
Ancaster $479,552
Waterdown $440,157
Dundas $389,082
Grimsby $355,409
Glanbrook $338,638
Stoney Creek $327,107
Hamilton West $316,160
Caledonia $288,409
Hamilton Mountain $280,065
Hamilton East $208,401
Dunnville $197,411
Hamilton Centre $176,664

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Jan-Sept 2013 vs Jan-Sept 2012

Flamborough $62,614
Waterdown $43,554
Burlington $33,819
Dundas $33,345
Caledonia $25,628
Hamilton West $23,028
Ancaster $19,134
Hamilton Mountain $15,842
Hamilton Centre $15,123
Stoney Creek $14,365
Hamilton East $9,865
Grimsby $5,777
Dunnville $4,008
Glanbrook -$4,234

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Jan-Sept 2013 vs Jan-Sept 2012

Flamborough 13.41%
Waterdown 10.98%
Caledonia 9.75%
Dundas 9.37%
Hamilton Centre 9.36%
Hamilton West 7.86%
Burlington 7.47%
Hamilton Mountain 5.98%
Hamilton East 4.97%
Stoney Creek 4.59%
Ancaster 4.16%
Dunnville 2.07%
Grimsby 1.65%
Glanbrook -1.23%

Volume of Units Sold (%), Jan-Sept 2013 vs Jan-Sept 2012

Hamilton Mountain +22.20%
Ancaster +14.29%
Glanbrook +12.68%
Hamilton Centre +4.99%
Waterdown +2.86%
Grimsby -0.31%
Burlington -1.49%
Hamilton East -2.27%
Dunnville -4.41 %
Hamilton West -6.39%
Stoney Creek -7.98%
Dundas -11.19%
Flamborough -17.98%
Caledonia -27.54%

Source: Collated from RAHB Market Activity Reports

[SteelTown]

Hamilton's housing market to stay hot into 2014

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/hamilton-s-housing-market-to-stay-hot-into-2014-1.2303658

That’s the forecast from the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the country’s national housing agency.

The CMHC says demand for existing homes will remain steady in the first half of next year, while construction of new homes will increase.

“The steady population increase from net migration has generated more households, which bodes well for the housing markets in Hamilton and Brantford,” Abdul Kargbo, the CMHC’s senior market analyst for the Hamilton and Brantford areas, said in a statement.

Kargbo's predictions come after the Hamilton area saw strong housing sales at the beginning of fall. September was another banner month for Hamilton’s housing market. A total of 1,207 were sold in Hamilton that month, one short of the record for September, set in 2009.

“Sales and listings for the month of September were both well above the 10-year average for the month,” Ross Godsoe, CEO for the Realtors Association of Hamilton-Burlington, said in early October.

House prices also rose in September over the previous year. The RAHB reports the average home price for September was $392,013, an increase of nearly seven per cent from September 2012.

However, housing starts in the city dipped in the same month, trending at about 400 fewer units than the month of August.

The trend, monitored by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, is a six-month moving average. There were 2,451 units in September compared to 2,827 in August.

[thistleclub]

Another Q1-Q3 snapshot via CMHC:

Hamilton Housing Start Data by Type, Jan-Sept 2013 (Jan-Sept 2012) ( http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64679/64679_2013_M10.pdf?fr=1383578351382)

Burlington
Single: 59 (75)
Semi: 2 (0)
Row: 153 (90)
Apt: 510 (338)
Total: 724 (503)

Hamilton (Amalgamated City)
Single: 802 (967)
Semi: 60 (88)
Row: 380 (655)
Apt: 107 (108)
Total: 1,349 (1,818)

Hamilton (Old City)
Single: 190 (201)
Semi: 10 (8)
Row: 31 (104)
Apt: 99 (66)
Total: 330 (379)

Ancaster
Single: 178 (188)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 36 (87)
Apt: 6 (39)
Total: 220 (314)

Dundas
Single: 4 (5)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 0 (0)
Apt: 0 (0)
Total: 4 (5)

Flamborough
Single: 93 (221)
Semi: 22 (34)
Row: 84 (77)
Apt: 2 (3)
Total: 201 (335)

Glanbrook
Single: 237 (217)
Semi: 0 (20)
Row: 152 (112)
Apt: 0 (0)
Total: 389 (349)

Stoney Creek
Single: 100 (135)
Semi: 28 (26)
Row: 69 (275)
Apt: 0 (0)
Total: 197 (436)

Grimsby
Single: 37 (31)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 73 (70)
Apt: 0 (0)
Total: 110 (101)

Total CMA Starts YTD
2,183 (2,422)


83% of CMA's apartment starts were in Burlington. 89% of CMA's single detached starts were in Hamilton.

[drpgq]

I've said it before on this thread, but Burlington is filled up for single houses. They can only go up. Population wise I'm guessing they will be stagnant as it becomes harder and harder to build new apartments in Burlington.

Another Q1-Q3 snapshot via CMHC:

Hamilton Housing Start Data by Type, Jan-Sept 2013 (Jan-Sept 2012) ( http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64679/64679_2013_M10.pdf?fr=1383578351382)

Burlington
Single: 59 (75)
Semi: 2 (0)
Row: 153 (90)
Apt: 510 (338)
Total: 724 (503)

Hamilton (Amalgamated City)
Single: 802 (967)
Semi: 60 (88)
Row: 380 (655)
Apt: 107 (108)
Total: 1,349 (1,818)

Hamilton (Old City)
Single: 190 (201)
Semi: 10 (8)
Row: 31 (104)
Apt: 99 (66)
Total: 330 (379)

Ancaster
Single: 178 (188)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 36 (87)
Apt: 6 (39)
Total: 220 (314)

Dundas
Single: 4 (5)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 0 (0)
Apt: 0 (0)
Total: 4 (5)

Flamborough
Single: 93 (221)
Semi: 22 (34)
Row: 84 (77)
Apt: 2 (3)
Total: 201 (335)

Glanbrook
Single: 237 (217)
Semi: 0 (20)
Row: 152 (112)
Apt: 0 (0)
Total: 389 (349)

Stoney Creek
Single: 100 (135)
Semi: 28 (26)
Row: 69 (275)
Apt: 0 (0)
Total: 197 (436)

Grimsby
Single: 37 (31)
Semi: 0 (0)
Row: 73 (70)
Apt: 0 (0)
Total: 110 (101)

Total CMA Starts YTD
2,183 (2,422)


83% of CMA's apartment starts were in Burlington. 89% of CMA's single detached starts were in Hamilton.

[Beedok]

Flamborough seems to be trying to grab the difference.

[thistleclub]

I've said it before on this thread, but Burlington is filled up for single houses. They can only go up. Population wise I'm guessing they will be stagnant as it becomes harder and harder to build new apartments in Burlington.

An interesting comparison is pre-amalgamation Hamilton. In the period 2006-2011, Burlington's population grew by a bit over 11,000 residents, roughly as many residents as "Old Hamilton" did between 1991 and 2011 (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=179407&page=2).

Burlington is forecast to add another 11,000 residents (http://cms.burlington.ca/AssetFactory.aspx?did=17947) over the next 20 years, "Old Hamilton" about half that (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=5930809&postcount=27).

While "Old Hamilton" is twice as populous as Burlington, there appears to be only a fraction of that city's appetite for new density here. 90% of Burlington's starts YTD have been medium- and high-density options. In amalgamated Hamilton, meanwhile, 70% of starts have been low-density.

While both cities saw a 50% bump in apartment starts year-over-year, Burlington's numbers are five times that of Hamilton. On top of that, Hamilton posted around twice as many single starts as apartment starts. Evidently we still have elbow room.

[thistleclub]

Hamilton housing prices dip in October (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/hamilton-housing-prices-dip-in-october-1.2427997)
(CBC Hamilton, Nov 15 2013)

Both the number of homes sold in Hamilton and the average selling price dropped in October compared to the previous month.

According to figures released Friday by The Canadian Real Estate Association, the number of homes sold in the Hamilton-Burlington area dropped by 7.5 per cent last month from September. However, the number is still up 8.9 per cent from October of last year.

The average housing price also dipped by 6.9 per cent, but is up 13.4 percent when compared to October of 2012.

[thistleclub]

Broad-brush market update via CMHC's latest Monthly Housing Statistics (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/61512/61512_2013_M11.pdf?fr=1385243266778):

Dwelling Starts by Urban Area, Hamilton CMA

Single Detached
Oct 2012: 125
Oct 2013: 81
Jan-Oct 2012: 1,286
Jan-Oct 2013: 1,041

Row, Apt & Other
Oct 2012: 18
Oct 2013: 80
Jan-Oct 2012: 1,279
Jan-Oct 2013: 1,303

[thistleclub]

Belatedly, from RAHB’s October 2013 Market Report (http://www.rahb.ca/press/2013/131106statsreleaseOct.pdf
):

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported 1207 properties sold through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system in October. This represents a 9.4 per cent increase in the number of sales over October of last year. The average sale price of $397,403 was an increase of 3.9 per cent over the previous October. There were 1730 properties listed in October, an increase of five per cent over October of last year. End-of-month listing inventory is 6.3 per cent lower than last year.… Seasonally adjusted* sales of residential properties were 11.7 per cent higher than the same month last year, with the average sale price up 5.6 per cent for the month. Seasonally adjusted numbers of new listings were 6.5 per cent higher than the same month last year.

Average Sale Price, Oct 2013 (http://goo.gl/e1sDrQ)

Flamborough $553,164
Ancaster $501,211
Burlington $469,478
Waterdown $441,494
Glanbrook $399,567
Hamilton West $385,165
Dundas $374,233
Grimsby $369,987
Stoney Creek $313,821
Hamilton Mountain $296,482
Caledonia $280,136
Hamilton East $207,869
Dunnville $189,744
Hamilton Centre $186,954

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Oct 2013 vs Oct 2012

Hamilton West $83,191
Glanbrook $70,120
Hamilton Mountain $39,993
Hamilton Centre $31,118
Grimsby $28,674
Ancaster $26,411
Waterdown $15,652
Hamilton East $13,107
Dundas $11,772
Caledonia $7,421
Burlington $6,010
Flamborough -$4,752
Stoney Creek -$15,544
Dunnville -$33,456

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Oct 2013 vs Oct 2012

Hamilton West 27.55%
Glanbrook 21.28%
Hamilton Centre 19.97%
Hamilton Mountain 15.59%
Grimsby 8.40%
Hamilton East 7.63%
Ancaster 5.56%
Waterdown 3.68%
Dundas 3.25%
Caledonia 2.72%
Burlington 1.30%
Flamborough -0.85%
Stoney Creek -4.72%
Dunnville -14.90%

Source: RAHB Market Reports

[drpgq]

That's a pretty crazy year over year price increase for West Hamilton, especially compared to Burlington.

[thistleclub]

The monthly numbers are highly variable. Really depends on what buildings are on the market at any given time.

YTD data is generally a bit more telling:

Average Sale Price, Jan-Oct 2013

Flamborough $531,921
Burlington $485,015
Ancaster $481,718
Waterdown $440,291
Dundas $387,598
Grimsby $356,867
Glanbrook $344,731
Stoney Creek $325,778
Hamilton West $323,060
Caledonia $287,582
Hamilton Mountain $281,984
Hamilton East $208,348
Dunnville $196,644
Hamilton Centre $177,693

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Jan-Oct 2013 vs Jan-Oct 2012

Flamborough $55,878
Waterdown $40,764
Dundas $31,188
Burlington $31,038
Hamilton West $29,044
Caledonia $23,807
Ancaster $19,861
Hamilton Mountain $18,257
Hamilton Centre $16,722
Stoney Creek $11,375
Hamilton East $10,190
Grimsby $8,067
Glanbrook $4,201
Dunnville $261

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Jan-Oct 2013 vs Jan-Oct 2012

Flamborough 11.74%
Hamilton Centre 10.39%
Waterdown 10.20%
Hamilton West 9.88%
Caledonia 9.03%
Dundas 8.75%
Hamilton Mountain 6.92%
Burlington 6.84%
Hamilton East 5.14%
Ancaster 4.30%
Stoney Creek 3.62%
Grimsby 2.31%
Dunnville 1.33%
Glanbrook 1.23%

Volume of Units Sold (%), Jan-Oct 2013 vs Jan-Oct 2012

Hamilton Mountain +20.83%
Dunnville +20.00 %
Ancaster +13.54%
Glanbrook +12.85%
Hamilton Centre +7.84%
Waterdown +2.57%
Grimsby +1.38%
Burlington -0.43%
Hamilton East -2.33%
Stoney Creek -4.74%
Hamilton West -7.32%
Dundas -10.19%
Flamborough -15.38%
Caledonia -17.88%

Source: Collated from RAHB Market Activity Reports

[markbarbera]

This is a discussion that is long overdue. I am glad Terry Whitehead is bringing it forward.

Is the swelling condo market hurting renters?

One councillor wants to find out if condo conversions are squeezing out renters

Yet another apartment building is being converted to condos, and at least one city councillor wants to know the impact such conversions have on low-income renters.

Coun. Terry Whitehead will introduce a motion at an upcoming emergency and community services committee asking how condo conversions impact the affordable apartment market. He also wants to know whether Hamilton has a healthy amount of available rental property...



http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/is-the-swelling-condo-market-hurting-renters-1.2449194

[thistleclub]

The switch from apartment to condo may also alter the taxation class. This was touched on in recent GIC report Hamilton Downtown Urban Growth Centre: Municipal Taxes for the Years 2008 to 2012 (FCS13091 (http://www.hamilton.ca/NR/rdonlyres/54B61673-FEE7-4499-98E2-052E62F80AED/0/Nov2652FCS13091.pdf)):

• 125 Wellington St N changed from Multi-residential (apartment) to Residential (condo) in 2012 resulting in a municipal tax reduction of -$570K gross (-$240K net);

CMHC has stats on area rental stock, though I believe only as current as Fall 2012 (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64391/64391_2012_A01.pdf?fr=1384087463423). Vacancy rate varies by where you are in the CMA: the Mountain, Grimsby and Stoney Creek stood at 3.3%, the lower city 3.7%-5.1%, Ancaster/Dundas/Glamborough/Glanbrook 1.8%, and Burlington 1.3%

[drpgq]

I've made this point before, but if you charged the same tax rate on multi-residential as other housing classes, you would get a lot more apartments built. This shouldn't be a surprise.

[thistleclub]

From RAHB’s November 2013 Market Report (http://www.rahb.ca/2013/12/strong-real-estate-market-continues/):

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported 1,078 properties sold through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system in November. This represents an 11.1 per cent increase in sales over November of last year. There were 1,298 properties listed in November, an increase of nine per cent over the same month last year. End-of-month listing inventory is 6.1 per cent lower than last year at the same time. For the first time this year, the average sale price did not show an increase compared to the same month last year. The average sale price in the residential market was virtually the same as last November; a decrease in the average sale price in the commercial market accounted for an overall decrease in average sale price compared to last year.

Average Sale Price, Nov 2013 ( http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-November.jpg)

Flamborough $570,136
Ancaster $469,150
Waterdown $468,967
Burlington $455,145
Glanbrook $401,912
Dundas $357,132
Grimsby $354,818
Stoney Creek $340,868
Hamilton West $304,966
Hamilton Mountain $277,932
Caledonia $275,790
Hamilton East $204,900
Hamilton Centre $185,042
Dunnville $181,786

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Nov 2013 vs Nov 2012

Glanbrook $99,914
Waterdown $63,940
Stoney Creek $36,628
Hamilton Centre $19,727
Hamilton West $17,816
Ancaster $17,180
Hamilton Mountain $12,914
Burlington $8,119
Dundas $2,290
Dunnville -$1,589
Hamilton East -$7,194
Grimsby -$7,854
Caledonia -$28,523
Flamborough -$75,273

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Nov 2013 vs Nov 2012

Glanbrook 33.08%
Waterdown 15.35%
Stoney Creek 12.04%
Hamilton Centre 11.93%
Hamilton West 6.20%
Hamilton Mountain 4.87%
Ancaster 3.80%
Burlington 1.82%
Dundas 0.65%
Dunnville -0.87%
Hamilton East -3.39%
Grimsby -2.17%
Caledonia -9.37%
Flamborough -11.66%

Source: RAHB Market Reports

[thistleclub]

Residential construction apparently improves housing starts numbers. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/hamilton-housing-starts-stable-in-november-cmhc-1.2458011)

Also, press (http://dcnonl.com/nw/35033/re) releases (http://dcnonl.com/nw/35135/re) can be recycled into publicly-funded (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/hamilton-will-have-healthy-housing-market-in-2014-cmhc-1.2432110) news (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/news/hamilton-housing-starts-stable-in-november-cmhc-1.2458011).


Via CMHC's Preliminary Housing Start Data (https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalog/productDetail.cfm?cat=58&itm=1&lang=en&fr=1386710848980) for November:

Dwelling Starts by Urban Area, Hamilton CMA

Single Detached
Nov 2012: 94
Nov 2013: 102
Jan-Nov 2012: 1,288
Jan-Nov 2013: 1,075

Row, Apt & Other
Nov 2012: 134
Nov 2013: 126
Jan-Nov 2012: 1,505
Jan-Nov 2013: 1,497

Total Starts
Nov 2012: 228
Nov 2013: 228
Jan-Nov 2012: 2,793
Jan-Nov 2013: 2,572

[thistleclub]

The above numbers have been revised in CMHC's latest Monthly Housing Statistics (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/61512/61512_2013_M12.pdf?fr=1387807763170
):

Dwelling Starts by Urban Area, Hamilton CMA

Single Detached
Nov 2012: 96
Nov 2013: 118
Jan-Nov 2012: 1,382
Jan-Nov 2013: 1,159

Row, Apt & Other
Nov 2012: 132
Nov 2013: 110
Jan-Nov 2012: 1,411
Jan-Nov 2013: 1,413

Total Starts
Nov 2012: 228
Nov 2013: 228
Jan-Nov 2012: 2,793
Jan-Nov 2013: 2,572

[thistleclub]

Also via CMHC’s Monthly Housing Statistics (https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/catalog/productDetail.cfm?cat=56&itm=1&lang=en&fr=1387809397434), Average Unit Selling Prices of all Newly Completed and Unabsorbed Single-detached and Semi-detached Dwellings, Hamilton CMA:

Jan 2011: $413,780
Feb 2011: $401,817
Mar 2011: $426,089
Apr 2011: $461,915
May 2011: $486,606
June 2011: $493,309
July 2011: $507,325
Aug 2011: $527,701
Sept 2011: $517,521
Oct 2011: $525,793
Nov 2011: $532,496
Dec 2011: $549,030
Jan 2012: $641,059
Feb 2012: $596,388
Mar 2012: $597,322
Apr 2012: $499,183
May 2012: $492,744
June 2012: $481,346
July 2012: $487,953
Aug 2012: $490,220
Sept 2012: $527,328
Oct 2012: $533,933
Nov 2012: $618,827
Dec 2012: $650,411
Jan 2013: $532,799
Feb 2013: $537,248
Mar 2013: $525,341
Apr 2013: $521,196
May 2013: $540,558
June 2013: $533,014
July 2013: $517,496
Aug 2013: $574,615
Sept 2013: $564,880
Oct 2013: $548,169
Nov 2013: $548,472

Interesting to see the month-to-month fluctuations.

[thistleclub]

Inspired by the apartment rental tangent in the James North (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=160091&page=11) thread, here's a yardstick for the Hamilton CMA's average market rents, via CMHC’s Rental Market Reports from this fall (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64391/64391_2013_A01.pdf?fr=1388082581860) and last ( http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64391/64391_2012_A01.pdf?fr=1384087463423). Some unfortunate data masking in the second table makes it less than definitive but it gives you a general idea of the variations:

Private Apartment Average Rents ($) by Zone and Bedroom Type [Table 1.1.2]

Downtown Core
Bach: 541 (Oct 2011); 546 (Oct 2012); 571 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 668 (Oct 2011); 688 (Oct 2012); 717 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 819 (Oct 2011); 861 (Oct 2012); 895 (Oct 2013)
Central
Bach: 475 (Oct 2011); 526 (Oct 2012); 545 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 644 (Oct 2011); 683 (Oct 2012); 687 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 798 (Oct 2011); 836 (Oct 2012); 864 (Oct 2013)
West End
Bach: 585 (Oct 2011); 586 (Oct 2012); 644 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 698 (Oct 2011); 738 (Oct 2012); 789 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 812 (Oct 2011); 889 (Oct 2012); 960 (Oct 2013)
East End
Bach: 514 (Oct 2011); 541 (Oct 2012); 575 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 651 (Oct 2011); 672 (Oct 2012); 720 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 730 (Oct 2011); 729 (Oct 2012); 798 (Oct 2013)
Mountain
Bach: 559 (Oct 2011); 558 (Oct 2012); 582 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 678 (Oct 2011); 702 (Oct 2012); 739 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 789 (Oct 2011); 840 (Oct 2012); 877 (Oct 2013)
Hamilton City (ie. Wards 1-8)
Bach: 524 (Oct 2011); 537 (Oct 2012); 558 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 659 (Oct 2011); 687 (Oct 2012); 717 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 780 (Oct 2011); 814 (Oct 2012); 863 (Oct 2013)
Burlington
Bach: 870 (Oct 2011); 898 (Oct 2012); 932 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 968 (Oct 2011); 989 (Oct 2012); 1,023 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 1,090 (Oct 2011); 1,117 (Oct 2012); 1,148 (Oct 2013)
Hamilton CMA
Bach: 549 (Oct 2011); 569 (Oct 2012); 588 (Oct 2013)
1 BR: 722 (Oct 2011); 735 (Oct 2012); 766 (Oct 2013)
2 BR: 884 (Oct 2011); 886 (Oct 2012); 932 (Oct 2013)


Private Apartment Average Rents ($) by Year of Construction and Bedroom Type, Hamilton CMA [Table 1.2.2]

Bach
Pre 1960: 500 (Oct 2011); 510 (Oct 2012); 530 (Oct 2013)
1960-1974: 600 (Oct 2011); 606 (Oct 2012); 634 (Oct 2013)
1975-1989: 666 (Oct 2011); 722 (Oct 2013); 686 (Oct 2013)
1990-1999: ** (Oct 2011); ** (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)
2000+: 410 (Oct 2011); 512 (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)
1BR
Pre 1960: 641 (Oct 2011); 673 (Oct 2012); 687 (Oct 2013)
1960-1974: 756 (Oct 2011); 761 (Oct 2012); 785 (Oct 2013)
1975-1989: 731 (Oct 2011); 737 (Oct 2012); 795 (Oct 2013)
1990-1999: ** (Oct 2011); ** (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)
2000+: 647 (Oct 2011); 649 (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)
2BR
Pre 1960: 784 (Oct 2011); 814 (Oct 2012); 835 (Oct 2013)
1960-1974: 901 (Oct 2011); 895 (Oct 2012); 945 (Oct 2013)
1975-1989: 947 (Oct 2011); 948 (Oct 2012); 978 (Oct 2013)
1990-1999: 852 (Oct 2011); 921 (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)
2000+: ** (Oct 2011); 825 (Oct 2012); ** (Oct 2013)

** Data suppressed to protect confidentiality or data not statistically reliable.

[thistleclub]

Some distinctive house tours are on view over at Fresh Brick (http://freshbrick.blogspot.ca/).

[Berklon]

Some fantastic homes on that site.

Although it's disturbing looking at the great homes in the US they've displayed an their prices - really shows how much we're getting ripped off here.

[Innsertnamehere]

they also aren't in the middle of a large city. If you head out to Chatham you can get some cheap victorians as well.

[thistleclub]

Transfusion in the IV (http://hamilton.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-apartments-condos-2-bedroom-One-of-a-Kind-Downtown-Hamilton-Loft-W0QQAdIdZ556558751QQfeaturedAdZtrue): Two-floor, 1,850 square foot two bedroom/two bath/den, newly renovated by Thier + Curran Architects. $1,895 /mo (plus utilities), available Feb. 1.

TCA refers to this as the Colangelo Loft (http://www.tcarch.ca/projects.php?projectID=168) and it's located at the NW corner of King and Walnut (http://goo.gl/maps/DDkYD).

[coalminecanary]

Nice conversion - it's on the NW corner - the NE corner is "cityviews"

this is what the upper floors of the blanchard buildings could look like, even if every piece of timber inside the stone shells had been burned away and had to be redone from scratch

[Frankenrogers]

Some distinctive house tours are on view over at Fresh Brick (http://freshbrick.blogspot.ca/).


Nice to see my buddy Adam's site get a shout out here although I am embarrassed that I wasn't the one to do it.

[CaptainKirk]

Transfusion in the IV (http://hamilton.kijiji.ca/c-real-estate-apartments-condos-2-bedroom-One-of-a-Kind-Downtown-Hamilton-Loft-W0QQAdIdZ556558751QQfeaturedAdZtrue): Two-floor, 1,850 square foot two bedroom/two bath/den, newly renovated by Thier + Curran Architects. $1,895 /mo (plus utilities), available Feb. 1.

TCA refers to this as the Colangelo Loft (http://www.tcarch.ca/projects.php?projectID=168) and it's located at the NW corner of King and Walnut (http://goo.gl/maps/DDkYD).

Wow!

Very cool!

[thistleclub]

From RAHB’s December 2013 Market Report (http://www.rahb.ca/2014/01/december-sales-strong/):

The REALTORS® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB) reported 743 property sales were processed through the RAHB Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) system in December. This represents a 21.6 per cent increase in sales over December of last year. There were 659 properties listed in December, a decrease of nine per cent over the same month last year. End-of-month listing inventory was 11.4 per cent lower than last year at the same time. The average sale price of $369,212 was 7.1 per cent higher than last December.


Average Sale Price, Dec 2013 ( http://www.rahb.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/RAHB-Market-Activity-for-December.jpg)

Burlington $506,471
Ancaster $495,704
Flamborough $472,536
Waterdown $430,490
Dundas $411,424
Grimsby $349,259
Glanbrook $333,279
Stoney Creek $331,655
Hamilton West $295,466
Hamilton Mountain $285,395
Caledonia $259,333
Hamilton East $229,837
Dunnville $209,800
Hamilton Centre $166,611

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Dec 2013 vs Dec 2012

Dundas $82,157
Burlington $60,710
Waterdown $55,863
Stoney Creek $48,430
Hamilton East $37,889
Ancaster $21,826
Hamilton Mountain $19,475
Grimsby $13,896
Dunnville $5,050
Hamilton Centre $3,998
Hamilton West $1,092
Caledonia -$1,889
Glanbrook -$37,806
Flamborough -$86,146

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Dec 2013 vs Dec 2012

Dundas 24.95%
Hamilton East 19.74%
Stoney Creek 17.10%
Waterdown 14.91%
Burlington 13.62%
Hamilton Mountain 7.32%
Ancaster 4.61%
Grimsby 4.14%
Dunnville 2.47%
Hamilton Centre 2.46%
Hamilton West 0.37%
Caledonia -0.72%
Glanbrook -10.19%
Flamborough -15.42%

Source: RAHB Market Reports

[thistleclub]

Crunching RAHB's sales numbers (http://www.rahb.ca/#tab-tabber_widget-5-1) for January through December creates a 2013 snapshot of sale prices across the Hamilton CMA:

Average Sale Price, Jan-Dec 2013

Flamborough $530,156
Burlington $484,314
Ancaster $481,836
Waterdown $441,864
Dundas $387,044
Grimsby $356,062
Glanbrook $348,542
Stoney Creek $327,525
Hamilton West $319,253
Hamilton Mountain $281,930
Hamilton East $209,852
Hamilton Centre $177,382

Average Sale Price Increase ($), Jan-Dec 2013 vs Jan-Dec 2012

Waterdown $43,954
Flamborough $33,113
Dundas $32,027
Burlington $31,601
Hamilton West $25,779
Ancaster $19,802
Hamilton Mountain $17,912
Stoney Creek $16,567
Hamilton Centre $15,912
Hamilton East $11,050
Glanbrook $8,677
Grimsby $7,226

Average Sale Price Increase (%), Jan-Dec 2013 vs Jan-Dec 2012

Waterdown 11.05%
Hamilton Centre 9.85%
Dundas 9.33%
Hamilton West 8.78%
Burlington 6.98%
Hamilton Mountain 6.78%
Flamborough 6.66%
Hamilton East 5.56%
Stoney Creek 5.33%
Ancaster 4.29%
Glanbrook 2.55%
Grimsby 2.07%

Volume of Units Sold (%), Jan-Dec 2013 vs Jan-Dec 2012

Hamilton Mountain +19.60%
Ancaster +12.93%
Glanbrook +11.98%
Hamilton Centre +11.12%
Grimsby 2.23%
Burlington +1.54%
Waterdown +0.86%
Hamilton East -0.12%
Hamilton West -3.68%
Dundas -7.65%
Flamborough -11.39%
Stoney Creek -11.78%


Source: Collated from RAHB Market Activity Reports



NOTE: RAHB's year-end math (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=6418817&postcount=602) differs with the unofficial tally above.

[thistleclub]

Via CMHC (http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64695/64695_2014_M01.pdf?fr=1389462646085 ):

Preliminary Housing Start Data, Hamilton CMA, Jan-Dec 2013 (Jan-Dec 2012)

Single-Detached: 1,159 (1,389)
All Others: 1,550 (1,580)
Total: 2,439 (2,754)

17% decline in single-detached starts, 11% decline in total starts, year over year.

[thistleclub]

Teranet-National Bank house price index returns to all-time high (http://www.thespec.com/news-story/4315244-teranet-national-bank-house-price-index-returns-to-all-time-high/)
(Canadian Press, Jan 14 2014)

Home prices in December returned to their all-time high of October, driven by gains in Edmonton, Vancouver and Toronto, according to the Teranet National Bank national composite house price index.

The index was up 0.1 per cent from November, bringing the year-over-year gain to 3.8 per cent.

However despite the gain, the index was down in eight of the 11 markets looked at on a month-over-month basis.

It was the first gain for Edmonton in five months and the first gain for Toronto in four months.

December prices were down from the month before in Winnipeg, Calgary, Ottawa-Gatineau, Quebec City, Montreal, Hamilton, Halifax and Victoria.

"Vancouver was the only market whose prices reached a new high in December," Teranet-National Bank said in a statement.

"Toronto prices are almost back to their peak of last August. For Montreal and Quebec City, on the other hand, December was respectively the sixth and fifth month without a monthly increase."

It was the fourth monthly decline in a row for Ottawa-Gatineau and the third in a row for Victoria.

[mattgrande]

Aren't prices almost always lower in December? I'd imagine there's less people looking to move right around Christmas.

[thistleclub]

Teranet says (http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx) the percentage change of the average sale price in the Hamilton CMA for December 2013 was up 3.66% vs December 2012, but down 0.58% compared to November 2013.

RAHB says (http://www.rahb.ca/2014/01/december-sales-strong/) the percentage change of the average sale price in the Hamilton CMA for December 2013 was up 7.1% vs December 2012, and up 5.0% compared to November 2013.

The difference may be explained by the fact that Teranet’s National Bank House Price Index (http://www.housepriceindex.ca/Default.aspx) measures using sales pairs (http://www.housepriceindex.ca/documents/MethodologyEN.pdf): Any property that has been sold at least twice is considered in the calculation of the index. RAHB, meanwhile, tallies all sales in a given market, dividing the total dollar volume of sales by the number of sales in that month, and complicates matters by including Haldimand County markets Dunnville and Caledonia in the mix.

Both measures have obvious limitations.

Aren't prices almost always lower in December?

From last January (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showpost.php?p=5984843&postcount=448): "The December price index was up 3.1 per cent in 2012 — the lowest increase in three years. On a month-to-month basis, the index was down 0.4 per cent from November — marking one of the weakest Decembers on record going back 13 years."

[thistleclub]

Why Canada’s cult of home ownership is in trouble (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/why-canadas-cult-of-home-ownership-is-in-trouble/article16419965/)
(The Globe and Mail, Rob Carrick, Jan 21 2014)

Despite all the financial obstacles they face, young adults have been eager believers in home ownership. Now, they’re thinking more critically about houses.

That’s the sense you get from the twentysomethings in Richard Harris (http://www.science.mcmaster.ca/~geo/people/faculty/harris/index.html)’s fourth-year urban housing class (https://www.science.mcmaster.ca/~geo/undergraduate/courses/fourthyear/geog4uh3/4UH3_2013-14_Course_Outline.pdf) in the geography program at McMaster University in Hamilton. For the second year in a row, Prof. Harris has given his students a fall assignment (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/youve-just-been-offered-your-first-job-do-you-buy-a-home-or-rent/article16414505/) to construct an argument for either buying a home or renting.

“Last year, in a class of 29 students, a clear majority said they would buy,” Prof. Harris wrote me in an e-mail. “I was surprised because I had spent a lot of time speaking about the dangers of price bubbles, and about the opinion of most experts that the markets in many Canadian cities had moved, or were moving, into bubble territory.”

This year, only five of 23 said they’d buy and 18 chose to rent. “Although the assignment was the same and the content of my lectures pretty much the same, the pattern of response was very different,” Prof. Harris wrote.

While the size of his class is too small to be statistically definitive, Prof. Harris considered the swing in opinion noteworthy. It’s all that and more if you want to understand where our housing market is heading in the years ahead.

As aging baby boomers start to consider downsizing their homes, young first-time buyers will become increasingly important to the housing market. They’ve certainly shown the will to buy homes in the past two decades. Despite a weak job market for young workers and high student debt levels, young adults have streamed into the housing market.

Data supplied by Steve Pomeroy, a housing consultant and research associate at Carleton University, show that home ownership rates among people aged 25 to 34 rose from 45.8 per cent in the mid-1990s to a historic peak of 52.4 per cent in 2011. Home ownership levels in the entire population also increased, but not quite as much.

“The relative success of many young households in what most perceived to be overpriced and unattainable housing markets is both surprising and remarkable,” Mr. Pomeroy wrote in a report posted on his blog (http://www.focus-consult.com/2013/thoughts/remarkable-trend-in-homeownership-among-young-households).

Low mortgage rates are a major reason that young people were able to get into the market, he said. But some also benefited job-wise from the strong economy until 2009, and looser mortgage rules of the previous decade helped, too. Anyone remember 35- and 40-year mortgages?

Mr. Pomeroy said it’s important to note that only half of younger households benefited from these conditions. The rest continue to struggle to find the jobs and wages that will get them into the housing market.

Even so, Prof. Harris was just a year ago presiding over a classroom dominated by home ownership true believers.



Read it in full here (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/household-finances/why-canadas-cult-of-home-ownership-is-in-trouble/article16419965/).