[SmileyBoy]

Quebec - 728,924
Hamilton - 720,426
Winnipeg - 712,671

I'm interested to see how this race will play out in the coming years. It got me to asking which city of these will hit 1 million first. I think Winnipeg has the most potential (immigration and central location), but I feel Hamilton has the better economic environment (proximity to TO). I don't know much about Quebec City, other than I heard that most people are moving there from the rural parts of Quebec, so I don't know how good their in-migration would be.

I would have to chose between Hamilton and Winnipeg, thinking that both cities may surpass Quebec City sometime in the future. Seeing as how things are at this moment, I would say Hamilton, but seeing as how things are predicted to be in the future, I would have to say Winnipeg. As you can see, it's tough for me to choose. All three may be knocking on the 1 million door about 20-25 years from now at the rate these cities are growing.

Could all three cities be neck-and-neck-and-neck for the extended future??

[vid]

If I was a moderator, I would just lock this now and be done with the whole thing. :(

Let's just say Kitchener and call it a day.

[Presswood]

Why not Quebec city , it had the best growth last year with + 8000 peoples , compared to +5000 for winnipeg and + 2000 for hamilton .

Wow it grew more than both other cities together.

[SmileyBoy]

If I was a moderator, I would just lock this now and be done with the whole thing. :(

Let's just say Kitchener and call it a day.

My intention was not to start a flame war. I was hoping that there could be a civilized discussion about it.

If you're sure that personal attacks will ensue, then I'm sorry for bringing it up.

[MTLskyline]

You're underestimating Quebec City a little bit. It has a very strong economy and is practically begging people to come there and work!

However, I don't see any of the three reaching a million anytime soon.

[SmileyBoy]

Why not Quebec city , it has the best growth last year with + 8000 people , compared to +5000 for winnipeg and + 2000 for hamilton .

Wow it grew more than both other cities together.

(My French is really bad, but I'm gonna take this opportunity to bone up on it.)

Presswood, pourquoi pensez-vous le Québec se développe-t-vous si rapide ? Y a-t-il beaucoup de personnes se déplaçant là d'autres provinces??

(I'll switch back to Anglais from here on out.:D)

[Rico Rommheim]

Quebec has a very stable economy and job market but this is offset by the almost non-existent immigration. Once I was in Quebec and I saw a black dude and I was like Wow! As it turns out he was from Montreal :haha:

[vid]

Really? Even Thunder Bay has black people straight from Africa. :P And much of Africa speaks French.

I think I would guess Quebec City as well. You never hear anything about it so lots of people don't know how fast it really is growing.

[Nicko999]

I think Quebec City will reach the million mark first. The city is growing faster and faster. I think that Quebec grew faster than Montreal (not sure).

[vid]

Quebec did grow faster. Montreal has been relatively stagnant for some time. The Quebec government seems to treat it like how the Feds treat Toronto.

[Spocket]

Actually, I'm going to go with Hamilton.

The reason is because it has the greatest potential of all three to reach one million first. All three cities are experiencing an economic boom of sorts but the difference is location. Hamilton is ideally situated in this respect. Of course, it all hinges on Hamilton actually taking advantage of this situation but eventually, with an ever-expanding GTA, sooner or later Hamilton is going to see a major influx as room runs out for the GTA. As it stands , Hamilton might remain a slower growth place for a while but within a decade or two it should pick up dramatically. In that time it's unlikely that any of these cities will have reached a million so barring population boom in Quebec or Winnipeg, Hamilton strikes me as the most likely winner in this race.

[Rico Rommheim]

Montreal is getting consistently raped by Quebec, we're half of the province's population and THE major economic motor and we get didly squat for it. Our roads are falling apart (and crushing people as a result) and our hospitals are a haven for bacteria but who cares, were just some filthy immigrant infested hole, according to the bureaucrats that run the province.

AS for the Big Q, she's something like 96% white, catholic and french speaking. There's actually some 7000 unilingual english speakers living there, which strikes me as odd.

[matt602]

I'd say Quebec since it has the lead, but Hamilton will follow closely. Hamilton will be experiencing a boom but it's probably another 5 years away, it may be a gradual boom. I'm not at all familiar with Winnipeg so I'm not taking it into account.

Either way all 3 will be up there in the next 20 years. The bleed over from the GTA is gonna help Hamilton out a LOT. Bedroom community? Meh.

[Presswood]

I see black people everyday in Quebec.... Mostly young people too.


Y a-t-il beaucoup de personnes se déplaçant là d'autres provinces??

No but a lot of people from rural region in the province come live here , that and a lot of French from france .

Je pense que les 3 villes vont resté pas mal égal , c'a métonnerais qu'une d'entre elle se démarque des autres.

[Rico Rommheim]

No but a lot of people from rural region in the province come live here , that and a lot of French from france .


combiens environ?

[Presswood]

Je sais pas combien mais je travail avec une bretonne et depuis 1-2 ans il arrive souvent d'entendre parler avec l'accent francais , ce qui etais plustot rare avant.

Chose que je sais c'est qu'il sont les principaux immigrant qui vienne s'établir ici.

[Greco Roman]

Je sais pas combien mais je travail avec une bretonne et depuis 1-2 ans il arrive souvent d'entendre parler avec l'accent francais , ce qui etais plustot rare avant.

Chose que je sais c'est qu'il sont les principaux immigrant qui vienne s'établir ici.

Avez-vous beaucoup d'immigrants d'autres pays qui vient en masse au Ville du Quebec? Si non, pourquoi pas?

[Presswood]

:previous: non pas beaucoup , mise a part quelque sud américain qui parle espagnol et qui apprennent rapidement le francais .

Si non, pourquoi pas?

Parce que la pluspart des immigrant qui viennent en amerique du nord veulent vivre en anglais et il sont attiré par les grosses villes .

[Ayreonaut]

Well....this is gay. Who do you think you guys are, making me feel stupid.

[Nicko999]

Well....this is gay. Who do you think you guys are, making me feel stupid.

Lol, vid would come to translate this with Google!:D

[Rico Rommheim]

^wrong thread?

[Ayreonaut]

No, I just don't understand a word of French.

[vid]

I don't have to translate it in Google all the time, just certain words. :) Je peux parle français comme un enfant de deux ans!! (Better than one would think considering I never actually speak it and haven't been in a French class since 2003.)

Mais oui, il ne m'a quand intentionnellement à traduire dans google vais-je faire de l'effet sur vous à la baiser. Je vois qu'il est comédie. ;) ;) ;)

[Rico Rommheim]

Mais oui, il ne m'a quand intentionnellement à traduire dans google vais-je faire de l'effet sur vous à la baiser. Je vois qu'il est comédie. ;) ;) ;)

google translate needs a few french lessons ;)

[Nicko999]

I don't have to translate it in Google all the time, just certain words. :) Je peux parle français comme un enfant de deux ans!!

Mais oui, il ne m'a quand intentionnellement à traduire dans google vais-je faire de l'effet sur vous à la baiser. Je vois qu'il est comédie. ;) ;) ;)


This doesn't make sense at all LOL:haha:

[Ayreonaut]

This doesn't make sense at all LOL:haha:

Good, so it's not just me. I do however, understand smileys, so sometimes I can tell what the mood of the text is, which is worse because then I don't know what people are laughing/mad/happy/sad about.

[Rico Rommheim]

Querido hombre de vídeo, usted debe darse cuenta de que sin una alimentación adecuada y bien cuidadas las existencias de ganado, todas las vacas de su embriaguez será bueno para nada! Y una vez que ocurre se hace después de que el presidente y todos gritarán: "¡Viva la revolución!"

[vid]

I intentionally made it so. The English version actually made less sense than that, if you can believe it.

"Et la j'ai pu le lire la vache ces postes aussi bien sans l'aide de Google, et la grâce."

Creating really bad French with Google. It's hilarious. Like English.

http://www.engrish.com/image/engrish/superman-action-figure.jpg
http://www.engrish.com/recent_detail.php?imagename=superman-action-figure.jpg&category=Toys&date=2008-01-30

[Rico Rommheim]

:haha:

[Ayreonaut]

Lol, where the hell did 'silk' come from?

[vid]

Even better, after the translation, switch some words, then translate it back to English and then to French again.

translate..

Encore mieux, après la traduction, passez quelques mots, puis retour à la traduire en anglais et en français, puis à nouveau.

switch a few words..

Encore mieux, après la passez, traduction quelques mots, puis retour à la traduire en anglais et en puis, français à nouveau.

Back to English..

Even better, after the switch, translating a few words, then return to translate into English and then french again.

Fuck, it makes too much sense! :( Lets go back to the French:

Mieux encore, après le passage, la traduction de quelques mots, puis retour à traduire en anglais et en français, puis à nouveau.

Iono, lets throw in a cow and some pickles.. throw in some commas for good measure..

Mieux encore de la vache, après le passage, la traduction, de quelques mots, puis retour, à traduire en anglais, du cornichones, et en français, puis à nouveau.

I usually had a steady A in French, too. Mme. Lucas (hot, btw) would be appalled.

[Rico Rommheim]

I like eating cows...and pickles!

[Jarrod]

Oh god, it feels like I"m living with my old roommates from Quebec City! AH!

Anyway, I think Hamilton will reach the mark first.

[vid]

I used to have pet turtles. Donatello and Michaelangelo. (Guess what was really popular when I was growing up?) They now live on a farm and are huge. :frog: I only said that because I associate pickles with turtles. (They're my standby words. Can't think of a response? Say pickle or turtle.)

We're off topic.

I still say Quebec City. Catholics reproduce like rabbits.

[Ayreonaut]

Fuck, now I have to look up cornichones.

[Rico Rommheim]

cornichon = pickle

[vid]

I've always known that, I always found cornichon really funny. And pomplemousse, but everyone knows that one. :P

[matt602]

You crazy frenchies and your cornichon's.

<3

[Gdoggy]

I will have to go with Hamilton as well

Quebec is forecast to start losing population in the next 5-10 years, mind you I think most are really surprised at the growth spurt the last few years. QC is known historically as one of the slowest growing CMA's in the country. Hopefully they can hit the 1 million mark, and regain an NHL team. I think any CMA in Canada that has 1 million automatically deserves an NHL team.

Hamilton feeding of Toronto will only increase as more people move to the area and look for cheaper housing than in Toronto itself... same for Oshawa. Once the economy heats up again, Hamilton will go back to adding 8-9k per year again

that said... it would be cool if all 3 passed 1 million at the same time... odds are against it LOL, but that would be historic.

[Ayreonaut]

I'm glad you guys knew, because it's not on wikipedia.

[vid]

The article for pickle is titled Gherkin. (We only call them pickles in North America)

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornichon

[Ayreonaut]

The article for pickle is titled Gherkin. (We only call them pickles in North America)

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornichon
Is that why that building's called that? :haha:

[vid]

Yep. :P

[jeffwhit]

Where are Quebec's influx of residents coming from? Rural Quebec?

[Nicko999]

Where are Quebec's influx of residents coming from? Rural Quebec?


yes:tup:

[Rico Rommheim]

Where are Quebec's influx of residents coming from? Rural Quebec?

yep, coupled with a small baby boom

[osmo]

def. not winnipeg they have had a population drop for some time now.. and the only new influx in that population are immigrints .. im a immigrint myself.. but its hard when u come here and have to work from the bottom and worj your way up

i dont think any will hit a million in 25 years.. but my guess would be hamilton.. only because its so close to toronto

[Ayreonaut]

Yep. :P
Lol,
- "what's that?"
- "Oh nothing, just a big fucking pickle."

[tkoe]

.

[MolsonExport]

waterloo. Why? RIM!

[asher11]

The Hammer for sure. So many people I work with (in the financial district) already live there and the housing is cheap (by our standards). We'll eventually swallow it up - it's only 40 miles away.

[LordMandeep]

the thing is as houses got expensive in the GTA, people either just moved more towards Milton and further North and East or bought Condo's....

[Greco Roman]

def. not winnipeg they have had a population drop for some time now.. and the only new influx in that population are immigrints .. im a immigrint myself.. but its hard when u come here and have to work from the bottom and worj your way up

i dont think any will hit a million in 25 years.. but my guess would be hamilton.. only because its so close to toronto


Wow. You clearly are misinformed, arn't you skippy? Where do you get your wisdom from? :koko:

Winnipeg has never actually had a population drop at least in the last 20-30 years, just was stagnant for a bit. Now the population is growing, and the city has the third fastest growing economy for cities in the country. I don't know if it will be the first, but I sure as hell am not discounting it out like some people are on this forum :rolleyes:

[MonkeyRonin]

Mississauga.

[Nicko999]

Mississauga.

Mississauga is not in the three cities proposed!

[mbeaumont]

I think Quebec City, its been doing surprisingly well lately, and even though I dont live there anymore, when I go back I constantly see new developments everywhere, the first 21 years of my life I lived there it seemed to stagnant but its changed now

and for the black people, I was able to go weeks without ever seeing one in Quebec, mind you I didn't really go downtown or Sainte Foy much, I would usually stick in the suburbs

[hexrae]

I know nothing of Hamilton or Quebec, so I'll stick to what I know.

Manitoba has the nominee program, although other provinces are expected to attempt to replicate it's success. Manitoba is also gaining ground on the inter-provincial migration. Success for Manitoba is success for Winnipeg, although of course not all of Manitoba's population growth is seen in Peg city.

Getting to our opinions, I'd love to see all cities hit the 7 digit mark in my lifetime. But to do the math that's about a 900,000 combined growth in Canada's population. Given the amount of time it will take these cities to reach 1 million, there's too many variables to determine who will reach the magic number first. To give an answer, of course Winnipeg will reach 1 million first :tup:

[trueviking]

def. not winnipeg they have had a population drop for some time now..

yeah, uh...guess again....winnipeg's population has not once ever declined....never....and it is currently growing at its fastest rate in 20 years.

according to the somewhat ambiguous population estimates in the other thread, quebec is growing faster than winnipeg, which is growing faster than hamilton, but i would think that sitting within such a huge population base, hamilton will reach 1m first....the population pressure on it will grow as toronto expands.

of course, when the world economy switches from being petroleum based to hydrogen, then winnipeg will be the new calgary and all bets are off.

[jeffwhit]

waterloo. Why? RIM!

You really think RIM is going to directly or indirectly lead to a doubling in population of the KW metro? I would bet Hamilton or Winnipeg over KW, or Quebec by a long way. KW is just too far behind in the race, and Quebec isn't drawing nearly enough immigration (if any,) and virtually no migration from outside of the province. Between Hamilton and Winnipeg I would still bet Winnipeg since there is a general flow to the west of population.

[Rico Rommheim]

You really think RIM is going to directly or indirectly lead to a doubling in population of the KW metro?

The man was joking, whit.


I believe the old Q gonna make it first. Why? Because Quebec city is the mother of all the dominion's cities and as such has the god-given authority to grow faster than others. Or maybe you can all just fuck offz2

[Spocket]

def. not winnipeg they have had a population drop for some time now.. and the only new influx in that population are immigrints .. im a immigrint myself.. but its hard when u come here and have to work from the bottom and worj your way up

i dont think any will hit a million in 25 years.. but my guess would be hamilton.. only because its so close to toronto

Uh...yup...got that one totally ack basswards.
Never has this city lost population and it's now growing at a very resepectable rate. Economically it's doing very well too.

I will add though that I'm surprised at QC's population growth. It's just such an overlooked city in this country especially when it's considered one of the most beautiful cities in N. America. That aside, while I haven't heard about any forecasts for a population drop in QC I also have yet to ascertain what's driving its population growth right now. No reason to believe that it's some sort of anomaly or anything but I know so little about the QC economy that it's a mystery what's drawing so many people there over the last decade. Quebec forumers , can you enlighten me ?


And I noticed earlier in the thread that apparently there are alot of people living QC who came from France originally. Really ? We get many French speaking immigrants to Winnipeg but they almost invariably come from Africa. I don't think I've ever even met anybody from France for that matter. That's a shame to me since I want to hear their accent versus the local one and compare. :)

[WaterlooInvestor]

There was a similar discussion in this thread (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=142396&page=7) recently, but with new population estimates just released, I'm going to revise my predictions.

Opening Statement: Kitchener-Waterloo starts off well behind the other 3 cities, however if it can grow more than twice as fast of the other cities, it does have a chance of catching up. At first glance this seems like a very difficult task, except when you consider this has been close to reality during the past.

Growth rates over the 50 year period from 1951-2001:

Kitchener: 285.4%
Quebec City: 136%
Hamilton: 135%
Winnipeg: 87.9%

Population growth rates 2001-2006 (as reported in the census):

Waterloo Region: 9.0%
Hamilton: 4.6%
Quebec City: 4.2%
Winnipeg: 2.7%

Previous Analysis: Based on this data, and given the possibility of spillover from Toronto, and the possible constraining effect of the greenbelt on Hamilton, I decided on these odds:

40% - Kitchener-Waterloo
35% - Hamilton
15% - Quebec City
10% - Winnipeg

New Data: Postcensal estimates of population released Tuesday February 5, 2008 - http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/080205/d080205e.htm

Census Metropolitan Areas

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Québec 701,564 705,547 711,233 715,011 720,910 728,924
Hamilton 697,891 704,970 710,714 714,286 718,022 720,426
Winnipeg 693,685 697,140 702,598 704,478 707,518 712,671
Kitchener 438,744 444,731 452,152 458,159 463,528 468,002

Ontario Census Divisions
Note: The Kitchener CMA boundaries are likely to become the Waterloo CD's boundaries in the future.
Note: Planning estimates for Halton Region, city breakdown on Page 9 http://www.milton.ca/ecodev/best_planning_estimates.pdf

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Halton 402,633 415,417 430,085 443,732 456,784 468,980
Hamilton 514,551 517,980 519,669 520,243 520,503 519,741
Waterloo 464,049 470,288 478,436 485,415 491,382 496,370

New Analysis: The Ontario CMA's stumbled during the past year. Growth picked up in the other two metros. Perhaps you're wondering why I haven't placed QC higher? It's because this is only 1 year worth of data. If next year similar numbers are released and these numbers become a trend, then QC would obviously be upgraded again.

30% - Quebec City: upgraded since it's already the largest but now also the fastest growing of the metros

25% - Winnipeg: upgraded due to a pick up in growth

25% - Kitchener-Waterloo: downgraded since it didn't maintain a growth rate of 2X

20% - Hamilton: downgraded based on lower growth, particularity in the Hamilton CD

[vid]

Between 1951 and 2001, Thunder Bay saw a growth rate of about 5%. :)

[caltrane74]

Hamilton wins this one.

Nothing fancy happening there now, but when Oakville and Mississauga fill up, there's only one place to go.

Burlington!!!!! (ironically part of the Hamilton CMA, and the Toronto GTA)

Hamilton wins by default, just due to location.

[SteelTown]

There's a massive suburban development happening in Waterdown, a suburb of Hamilton. It’s supposed to absorb nearly 9,000 residents within the short term. Over the next decade West Hamilton density will skyrocket.

[graupner]

From an economic point of view, Hamilton has a big disadvantage with heavy indsutry a major part of its economy. Stelco, Dofasco, are major employers and are declining.
Also, how many factories have closed in Hamilton in the past 5 years? A lot. Thousands of jobs were lost.
For a city like Hamilton, the loss of 800 jobs from the closure of Camco or 600 from the closure of Dofasco are a drama and a major repelant to population growth.
The then-booming manufacturing sector fueled massive growth in the 60s and 70s but no wonder why it has slowed down so much in recent years.


Meanwhile Quebec never really had a big industry, but rather a strong financial, information and public (government) employment. Quebec has some of the biggest video game studios in Canada and is home of major insurance companies.
Strong growth is expected to remain for many years in Quebec as it doesn't depend on industry like Hamilton.

[SteelTown]

^ Hamilton hit rock bottom a few years ago so now there's no where to go but up. Even with the job lost the population didn't decrease just slowed down. Now the Health Care/Education/Innovation/Research sector is Hamilton's largest employeer. Those type of new jobs helped off set the lost in the manufactoring job lost, Hamilton has one of the lowest unemployment rate in Ontario.

[vid]

Losing 800 jobs is a big deal in Hamilton? Because until recently losing 800 jobs at a time was common place up here, and I'm sure Oshawa and Windsor could say the same.

Hamilton definitely needs to have a more diverse economy though. Isn't McMaster a leading university in medial and engineering research? They can build on that, like how Thunder Bay is building on LU's medial research. Cities need to develop stronger relationships with the universities. Having initiatives to take advantage of the boom in the west would also help but Hamilton is a big far for that. Thunder Bay has set up an initiative where almost anything going from Europe to the west is going through our port and that has helped a lot.

edit: See above: My post came true! :P Kinda funny, all these cities claiming to be "leaders in medical research and innovation" these days. :P

[SteelTown]

McMaster is more towards medical research like stem cells, cancer (Juravinski Cancer Centre), gene therapy and diabetes research. Hamilton Health Sicences is also towards medical research but towards caradic and stroke (David Braley Cardiac, Vascular and Stroke Research Institute), asthama (Firestone Institute for Respiratory Health) and mental health.

McMaster is currently building a big research park called the McMaster Innovation Park which will deal with engineering research such as metal, steel (General Motors will be part of the Innovation Park), etc and biotechnology.

[GreatTallNorth2]

If I was a moderator, I would just lock this now and be done with the whole thing. :(

Let's just say Kitchener and call it a day.

You are too late. Kitchener is already well past a million and will soon be surpassing Toronto.

[Nicko999]

You are too late. Kitchener is already well past a million and will soon be surpassing Toronto.


You're joking of course:rolleyes:

[vid]

And it's all thanks to RIM!!

[Nicko999]

And it's all thanks to RIM!!

Sure! RIM
:haha:

[LordMandeep]

I saw GTA increases One million before those cities reach one million.


That would be an interesting battle...

[Rico Rommheim]

rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrroll up the RIM to win!

[jeffwhit]

The man was joking, whit.


I believe the old Q gonna make it first. Why? Because Quebec city is the mother of all the dominion's cities and as such has the god-given authority to grow faster than others. Or maybe you can all just fuck offz2

Oh, I missed the joke. sorry. I do have a sense of humour. really.

[Rob D]

I used to have pet turtles. Donatello and Michaelangelo. (Guess what was really popular when I was growing up?) They now live on a farm and are huge. :frog: I only said that because I associate pickles with turtles. (They're my standby words. Can't think of a response? Say pickle or turtle.)

We're off topic.

I still say Quebec City. Catholics reproduce like rabbits.

Cathlics, not so much anymore. Mormans however:)

[wild wild west]

Depending on how birth rates go in the future, it's quite possible the answer would be "none of the above". However, if I were a betting man I'd say Hamilton. The big advantage Hamilton has over the others is that its proximity to the GTA means that when tough times hit, its residents can still find work in the GTA and thus ride out economic difficulties better than the others.

[Ayreonaut]

Whichever city JFJ moves to, because millions of followers will join him. :rolleyes:

[Cambridgite]

You are too late. Kitchener is already well past a million and will soon be surpassing Toronto.

GreatTrollNorth2 is at it again...:rolleyes:

[Rico Rommheim]

Whichever city JFJ moves to, because millions of followers will join him. :rolleyes:

Yes all the way from wealthy, cable-owning mongolia!

[Cambridgite]

Depending on how birth rates go in the future, it's quite possible the answer would be "none of the above". However, if I were a betting man I'd say Hamilton. The big advantage Hamilton has over the others is that its proximity to the GTA means that when tough times hit, its residents can still find work in the GTA and thus ride out economic difficulties better than the others.

Hamilton's downfall is its existing industrial base and image issues, but its location allows it to diversify, whereas more isolated places might not have that luxury. They can definitely play on McMaster as a strength as they're already starting to do. Being a real city, they can also tap into creative industries like media (think of the filming of Four Brothers and The Hulk) and attract the creative class to Hamilton as a cheaper and unique alternative to urban living in overpriced Toronto. I don't think Hamilton's future rests as a bedroom community. It's a fairly large city and although they're becoming increasingly intertwined with the Western GTA, I think it will still evolve into a city of business as long as people continue to move there. I also saw a chart showing the CMAs with the highest % of foreign-born residents. Hamilton was 3rd, between Vancouver and Kitchener. That's another big factor that will determine future growth.

So my vote is on Hamilton for being the next CMA to reach a million. Not sure who will be the next out of Quebec City and Winnipeg, but by the time any of these places reaches a million, Kitchener is likely to have closed the gap by a significant margin (uh oh, hope I haven't opened up a can of worms :haha: ).

[Ayreonaut]

Yes all the way from wealthy, cable-owning mongolia!He's the sole reason for Toronto's immigration growth you know.

[Rico Rommheim]

I was just about to say that!

[graupner]

Hamilton's downfall is its existing industrial base and image issues, but its location allows it to diversify, whereas more isolated places might not have that luxury. They can definitely play on McMaster as a strength as they're already starting to do. Being a real city, they can also tap into creative industries like media (think of the filming of Four Brothers and The Hulk) and attract the creative class to Hamilton as a cheaper and unique alternative to urban living in overpriced Toronto. I don't think Hamilton's future rests as a bedroom community. It's a fairly large city and although they're becoming increasingly intertwined with the Western GTA, I think it will still evolve into a city of business as long as people continue to move there. I also saw a chart showing the CMAs with the highest % of foreign-born residents. Hamilton was 3rd, between Vancouver and Kitchener. That's another big factor that will determine future growth.

So my vote is on Hamilton for being the next CMA to reach a million. Not sure who will be the next out of Quebec City and Winnipeg, but by the time any of these places reaches a million, Kitchener is likely to have closed the gap by a significant margin (uh oh, hope I haven't opened up a can of worms :haha: ).


Everything you guys predict as a future growth pattern for Hamilton is already happening in Quebec! Hamilton has a big catch up to do if it wants to catch quebec, on many levels.
While the industrial struggling is not over yet in Hamilton, the ' creative class' is already very strong in Qc, the biotech sector is booming, the financial sector too, and the media ( music, film, video games) sector is gaining more jobs every day. There's about 5 office towers under construction in Quebec and the vacancy rate dropped to an all time low of about 2.6% .

Add to this a tourism industry that make Hamilton look like a no mans land, Quebec is where it's at. Hamilton doesn't really have any landmark or incredible things to attract people. No offense, but it's more a provincial industrial town like Trois-Rivières than a major pole like Quebec is. Its attraction power compared to Quebec is bleak.

From anytime between 2000 and 2007, Quebec was the third most visited destination in Canada, with an average of 7 millions tourists, about 4 times Hamilton's (1.7 million tourists) .


The point is that while Hamilton is still wondering ' What do we do now that industry is dying ???'
Quebec got the point 5 years ago! ;)

[vid]

To compare, Thunder Bay gets 1.2 million visitors a year. Compared to Hamilton, we're either doing really good or they are really weak. (Or someone's statistics are wrong, also a possibility.)

http://www.thunderbay.ca/docs/news/4615.pdf (pg 16)

[graupner]

To compare, Thunder Bay gets 1.2 million visitors a year. Compared to Hamilton, we're either doing really good or they are really weak. (Or someone's statistics are wrong, also a possibility.)

http://www.thunderbay.ca/docs/news/4615.pdf (pg 16)

visitors and tourists are different vid.
The definition of a tourist is someone who traveled at least 80km, stayed at least 24 hours and used a private hotel to sleep.
an excursionist is someone who traveled less than 80km, stayed less than 24hours and didn't use an hotel.
It could be someone who come to watch a movie from the suburb! or to buy a fridge in an appliance store!

Visistors are the sum of both tourists and excursionist.
To compare, Quebec received about 23 millions visitors in 2004 !

[vid]

Now that makes more sense. :)

I should have figured the city would do something tricky. (Our bus ridership numbers count transfer pass users as separate customers, so if you transfer three times, you count as four people!!)

[flar]

Another thing that has happened over the last few decades is companies have left their aging Hamilton facilities and built in a more attractive location along the 403/QEW which happens to be in Burlington. Along with that, plenty of new industry has located in Burlington as well. Burlington and Hamilton are very much intertwined which is why Hamilton's unemployment is low. When it comes to statistics, Hamilton by itself has lost a ton of industry, but the Greater Hamilton area has held fairly steady.

[Waterlooson]

My prediction is for Hamilton to reach 1 million first... because Ontario's "places to grow" policy is forcing growth to outlying areas like never before.... however, I have to admit that I don't know if "places to grow" restricts Hamilton's sprawl like it will the Toronto CMA.... "places to grow" should help Hamilton's brownfield redevelopment.

Sure Hamilton's industrial base has been getting hard hit... yet its CMA continues to grow... albeit at a lower rate. Ontario's industries were also hard hit in the 1980's with globalization.... and the pop. of the golden horseshoe greatly increased.... including the Hamilton CMA.

[WaterlooInvestor]

Don't get me wrong: Hamilton definitely has a possibility to reach 1 million first, however there are two key issues I've mentioned which haven't been properly addressed.

1) The possibility the greenbelt constrains growth. This is shown in Halton Region's Best Planning Estimates April 2007 Research Paper. Although Halton Region is expected to boom over the coming years, Burlington's population is expected to remain relatively flat.

http://www.milton.ca/ecodev/best_planning_estimates.pdf
http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa262/AndrewEH/2008%20Singles/HaltonRegion-BestPlanningEstimatesA.jpg

http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa262/AndrewEH/PlacestoGrowMap.jpg


2) Extremely slow growth in the City of Hamilton, in fact this year the population estimate actually declined. Normally this wouldn't matter too much (a good example would be how the City of Toronto grew slowly from 2001-06 yet the CMA boomed), however if Burlington is slowing down then the City of Hamilton needs to pick up the slack. So far this hasn't happened.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Hamilton 514,551 517,980 519,669 520,243 520,503 519,741
*************************

If someone can make a strong case why these issues don't matter, then I do think Hamilton will be the next CMA to hit 1 million. I just haven't seen those arguments yet.

*************************

[Cambridgite]

Good points, WaterlooInvestor. Since Hamilton-Burlington is significantly constrained by the greenbelt (and Burlington isn't projected to grow much), that leaves most of the CMA growth to happen via intensification. No doubt Hamilton has lots of underused land to be intensified, but by looking at the recent population stats for the City of Hamilton, I don't think that's presently happening in any significant way. And considering those stats showing stagnation and decline are for the political entity of Hamilton, which includes many suburban areas, I have to wonder what kind of population change that amounts to in the lower city.

Unless significant changes start happening for the Hamilton lower city or the greenbelt gets lifted (unlikely), I'm going to take my vote away from Hamilton. I'm not sure whether Quebec City or Winnipeg should get it. Winnipeg is more of an immigrant magnet than Quebec City from my understanding, so I think I'll go with Winnipeg.

[flar]

It's pretty difficult to predict what effect the greenbelt will have since it isn't yet a factor with current development. Nor should much stock be put on extrapolations of past growth trends considering that situations are rapidly changing. Burlington is boxed in by the Greenbelt more than any other city since the escarpment runs almost exactly along the extent of its current developed area. On the escarpment above Burlington is Waterdown whose population is set to double over the next 5-10 years. On the south of Hamilton there is still plenty of empty space designated by the Greenbelt plan. That growth area is now serviced by two new highways, Red Hill Valley completed this year and the Highway 6 bypass completed about three years ago. Both of these are connected to the Linc, 403 and QEW forming a ring around Hamilton/Burlington with spurs. Along with McMaster Innovation Park (brownfield) the new highways open up the first significant employment lands (Aerotropolis and Glanbrook) in Hamilton since the area along the QEW in Stoney Creek. These will be some of the most attractive greenfields to develop in the Golden Horsehoe. As for the lower city, the east end has seen population declines in recent years while the west (including downtown) has seen small gains. It's impossible to tell to what extent gentrification will occur and what effect it will have on population. It's occuring quite rapidly now, but oftentimes a couple might move in where a family once lived. Either way, Hamilton has a good chance for solid growth after years of decline, as long as the local leadership doesn't drop the ball (which is also a good possiblity).

[SteelTown]

If you look at the map you'll see the Provincial government gave plenty of greenland for Hamilton to fill up. Look at the Hamilton Mountain area still plenty of that can be filled up especially East Stoney Creek Mountain which should boom because of the completion of the Red Hill Creek Expressway. I think I read that it'll probably take another 20 or so years to fill up all the greenland provided under the Greenbelt legislation. For example I mentioned already that Waterdown is expecting nearly 9,000 residents in the short term.

The best way to help attract increase population to the lower end of Hamilton is to go with LRT from McMaster to Eastgate. Which is what Metrolinx seems determined to do with the $300 million rapid transit provided to Hamilton from the provincial government.

[Waterlooson]

All great comments about Hamilton.... interesting.

[caltrane74]

I saw GTA increases One million before those cities reach one million.


That would be an interesting battle...

Not much of a battle, the GTA will add a million in less than 10 years. There is no way Hamilton gets to a million in 10 years.

[LordMandeep]

I did the math



a min of 9 or so years with 110,000 a year and a max of 13 years with 80,000 people a year.

For the GTA to jump another million.

[caltrane74]

Point is, even in 20 years hamilton will still be nowhere close to a million. - And neither will QC or Winterpeg.

[Nicko999]

Point is, even in 20 years hamilton will still be nowhere close to a million. - And neither will QC or Winterpeg.

And what would call Winnipeg during summer, Summerpeg?:haha:

[Greco Roman]

Point is, even in 20 years hamilton will still be nowhere close to a million. - And neither will QC or Winterpeg.

It's all relative, and in all honesty, no one here is a fortune teller. Anything can happen.

And the name is Winnipeg, thanks.