[the urban politician]

Just want to know what you think.

With fuel prices what they are, cheap flights are soon to be (or already are) a thing of the past. At what point do we cross the threshold into making higher speed intercity rail a more viable alternative?

For short distances (<200 miles) I still see people driving, but what about those places that are a good 8-12 hr drive away? Given the current environment, when will some big investors finally pony up a venture on high speed passenger rail?

[Justin10000]

I am surprised that SouthWest is not clamouring for alternatives. The airlines in Europe seem to understand that rail can be beneficial, and not a competitor.

Rail over short-medium distances is an obvious choice.

[Nutterbug]

When GM, Ford, Exxon, Mobil, Shell, Texaco, United, Delta, American et al stop having much influence over government policy.

[Gordo]

I am surprised that SouthWest is not clamouring for alternatives. The airlines in Europe seem to understand that rail can be beneficial, and not a competitor.

Rail over short-medium distances is an obvious choice.

I've heard repeatedly that Southwest has put aside $50 million or so to fight the California High Speed Rail ballot initiative if it makes it on the ballot this fall. I would hope this isn't the case, but Southwest makes a fortune off of short haul flights - not sure why they would want alternatives.

[Dac150]

I think we'll see a few more low budget airlines go bankrupt. I actually heard on the radio this morning that (as a joke) only the wealthy will be able to fly in the future. Now I think that is going too far, because in the United States (on a business aspect among others) flying has become such an important link that I think people will continue to fork over the money.

I still feel though that airlines such as USA 3000 and US Airways will see the ax in time to come.

Any thoughts as Airtran in regards to this topic? I don't know too much about them, but every time I fly into a national airport, I always see hefty amount of their planes.

I think though (in terms of American carriers) American, Delta/NWA, and United/Continental will last the test of time. I just don't see carriers such as Southwest, Midwest, US Airways, and USA 3000 last too much longer. Airtran however is still up in the air as far as my knowledge goes for that airline. I think though if ATA and the others were wiped off the map as quickly as they were, there will be others to follow. The question is when.

[VivaLFuego]

I'm still shocked that Amtrak hasn't fully integrated its scheduling and ticket booking services with the various travel agencies (Orbitz, Travelocity, Expedia, etc.), so at least existing rail services would show up as an option where applicable.

That said, I think there's definitely a nice for intercity passenger rail, but with the following stipulations:
- Range of approximately 75-300 miles. Any shorter and people will just drive, any longer and a flight makes more sense.
- For the love of god Amtrak, partner with car rental agencies and car-sharing services to locate vehicles at your various downtown termini. I'm not gonna take the train to Detroit because... then I'm stuck in the middle of a Detroit without a car.
- For hubs like Chicago, be sure to include at least one station in the metropolitan area, except in the suburbs, accompanied by a large parking facility; thus people drive to the intercity rail as they would otherwise drive to the airport. A major weakness of having intercity rail hub downtown is that it's pretty inconvenient for a good chunk of the metropolitan population.
- Re: my first point, there needs to be full integration for planning/booking all public transportation options, including air, rail, and parking facilities.

[VivaLFuego]

I think we'll see a few more low budget airlines go bankrupt. I actually heard on the radio this morning that (as a joke) only the wealthy will be able to fly in the future. Now I think that is going too far, because in the United States (on a business aspect among others) flying has become such an important link that I think people will continue to fork over the money.

I still feel though that airlines such as USA 3000 and US Airways will see the ax in time to come.

Any thoughts as Airtran in regards to this topic? I don't know too much about them, but every time I fly into a national airport, I always see hefty amount of their planes.

I think though (in terms of American carriers) American, Delta/NWA, and United/Continental will last the test of time. I just don't see carriers such as Southwest, Midwest, US Airways, and USA 3000 last too much longer. Airtran however is still up in the air as far as my knowledge goes for that airline. I think though if ATA and the others were wiped off the map as quickly as they were, there will be others to follow. The question is when.


I don't see why Southwest would suddenly start being poorly managed, seeing as it's 30-year track record of profitability suggests it's one of the most stable and reliable airlines in the domestic market...

[Dac150]

I don't see why Southwest would suddenly start being poorly managed, seeing as it's 30-year track record of profitability suggests it's one of the most stable and reliable airlines in the domestic market...

They haven't exactly been viewed in present time as a relibale airline. And a 30 year track record means nothing right now. What's past is past, and in the present I wouldn't board one of their planes for what is obvious.

[Nutterbug]

I've heard repeatedly that Southwest has put aside $50 million or so to fight the California High Speed Rail ballot initiative if it makes it on the ballot this fall. I would hope this isn't the case, but Southwest makes a fortune off of short haul flights - not sure why they would want alternatives.

These active anti-rail and anti-eco-friendly alternative corporations should be exposed loud and clear to the public by the environmental groups.

[Saddle Man]

Southwest is the reason Texas doesn't have the TGV. Airlines need to become transportation companies, not just airlines.

[Gordo]

They haven't exactly been viewed in present time as a relibale airline. And a 30 year track record means nothing right now. What's past is past, and in the present I wouldn't board one of their planes for what is obvious.

What are you talking about? The recent maintenance problems? Yet you somehow think American will be fine in spite of their mechanical problems (where thousands of flights were cancelled)? 30 year track record of good management and profitability through times when countless other airlines couldn't manage either means nothing?

Bizarre.

I don't particularly like some of Southwest's political dealings and tactics, but they are still IMO the best run airline and the most likely to be successful in the long term.

[Dac150]

What are you talking about? The recent maintenance problems?

That is a contribution, no doubt. Will it have enough effect to kill their business (?), no, of course not. However, I think they'll be facing more stiff competition once (and if) some of these mergers do happen (especially domestic routes).

I'm not saying that they'll face the fate of some recent blunders anytime soon, but I just wanted to point out that their domestic competition will get more steep and could eventually drive them out (or perhaps cause them to merge).

In regards to American, yeah, I think there reputation will take a few hits in time to come as it has already, but they are too big of an airline, and a powerhouse to get knocked off their feet from this recent event.

[Lexy]

They haven't exactly been viewed in present time as a relibale airline. And a 30 year track record means nothing right now. What's past is past, and in the present I wouldn't board one of their planes for what is obvious.

That's too funny!!!!:haha: Sounds like a personal bias more than it does anything else.

Tha FACT is that they have been, and continue to be, profitable. Ran by basically the same peole that ran them 30 years ago. I see no reason why that will stop in the near future. All airlines have issues with maintenance. Can you tell me how many people have died on Southwest Airlines jet's in their lengthy history?

I can. NONE!

Their reputation preceeds them in the airline biz and their relationships with the FAA is not unique to just them. Ask American Airlines.

[Dac150]

^^^^^ Your missing the point. There are more powerful airlines that are combining forces and sucking up routes. All I'm saying is that competition in that regard can possibly be enough to shut them down.

[Lexy]

^^^^^ Your missing the point. There are more powerful airlines that are combining forces and sucking up routes. All I'm saying is that competition in that regard can possibly be enough to shut them down.

Not even close my friend. They are sucking up international routes and the hubs that go with them. That's where the money is at right now and that's where it will be in the future. The majority of legacy carriers here in the US view the domestic routes with little concern as hardly any of them make money at all. If anything, there will be a surge from Southwest and a backing down from legacies as they shift their focus to more lucrative, and money making, international flights.

Delta got a hold of Northwest for its extensive international networks in Asia and Europe.

[Dac150]

They are sucking up international routes and the hubs that go with them. That's where the money is at right now and that's where it will be in the future.

True that is, but you can't tell me that there is no money in domestic flights. Even if it's not as generating as international routes, it's a hefty buck that other airlines would like to cash in on. Bottom line is competition is competition, and if it can get squashed they'll be no hesitation.

The potential for them to go is there because the competition is simply too tight. These big name airlines like Delta and United aren't being blinded by international route profits. If anything they'll achknowledge the success of the Southwest domestic routes and try to buy them out.

[Lexy]

True that is, but you can't tell me that there is no money in domestic flights. Even if it's not as generating as international routes, it's a hefty buck that other airlines would like to cash in on. Bottom line is competition is competition, and if it can get squashed they'll be no hesitation.

The potential for them to go is there because the competition is simply too tight. These big name airlines like Delta and United aren't being blinded by international route profits. If anything they'll achknowledge the success of the Southwest domestic routes and try to buy them out.

Neither Delta nor United would buy out Southwest. That just won't happen in our lifetime. The FAA and Congress would be all over something like that due to the copious amount of overlapping the competing routes would create.

If Delta and United, and all the others, haven't figured out how to compete with Southwest by now....it's unlikely they will figure it out anytime soon. Should I remind you of "Delta Song", "Delta Express", "Ted by United", and others?

[Capt AWACS]

T
The potential for them to go is there because the competition is simply too tight. These big name airlines like Delta and United aren't being blinded by international route profits. If anything they'll achknowledge the success of the Southwest domestic routes and try to buy them out.

Buy them out with what money? Southwest has more unrestricted cash. Read their investor reports. Southwest is still paying 60$~ a barrel for oil due to fuel hedges. They are not going anywhere. I'm not a big Southwest fan, but business is good for them and they are adding domestic routes and capacity. They are actively adding capacity in Denver, for example to kill Frontier.
Southwest knows business and won't go anywhere (barring some major string of disasters).

United has less than 700mil in unrestricted cash and lost +500 mil last quarter. They are the biggest airline that could be toast.

Ciao,
AWACS

[Gordo]

True that is, but you can't tell me that there is no money in domestic flights. Even if it's not as generating as international routes, it's a hefty buck that other airlines would like to cash in on. Bottom line is competition is competition, and if it can get squashed they'll be no hesitation.

The potential for them to go is there because the competition is simply too tight. These big name airlines like Delta and United aren't being blinded by international route profits. If anything they'll achknowledge the success of the Southwest domestic routes and try to buy them out.

How are they going to buy them out? Southwest has been the largest US carrier by passengers AND more importantly, by market capitalization for years. Southwest has by far the most cash/financing available to expand domestic capacity in the short and long term. Through their extensive fuel hedging program they are already set to have the lowest fuel costs in the industry for at least five more years - and since they have easier access to cash and cheap credit than the other airlines (including all of the supposed "big" airlines), they can negotiate better terms for planes, etc.

[Dac150]

If Delta and United, and all the others, haven't figured out how to compete with Southwest by now....it's unlikely they will figure it out anytime soon. Should I remind you of "Delta Song", "Delta Express", "Ted by United", and others?

That is exactly why they would buy them out. If they can't compete with their own ideas, buy the ideas that are successful and generating the money.

I feel that the Song and Ted campaigns were both horrible investments because Delta and United were going into territory that they really had no knowledge on how to make it work. It was more a roll of the dice then a solid investment.

[Lexy]

That is exactly why they would buy them out. If they can't compete with their own ideas, buy the ideas that are successful and generating the money.



But Southwest isn't up for sale and why would they sell to airlines that are essentially "below them" on the domestic market pecking order? I don't think that would satisfy their shareholders at all.

None of the Legacy carriers have shown a willingness to do point-to-point flying so I don't see what you say happening again.....in our lifetime.

[Dac150]

But Southwest isn't up for sale and why would they sell to airlines that are essentially "below them" on the domestic market pecking order? I don't think that would satisfy their shareholders at all.

If the buck is offered then I can't see how they would say no. Again, this is just a thought, and I'm not saying that this'll happen tomorrow, but I've see (as of you) a lot in the past month in regards to the airline industry, and I've also seen a lot with it that to this day I can't fathom it happened.

Point is anything can happen, and when it comes down to finances, these airlines have the 'I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine' mentality. If the incentive is there, then it's there.

Delta, American, and United have obviously claimed a stake in the international routes, but the term expansion is no stranger to any company. I can't believe that the thought will never cross there minds on how to expand and better their domestic routes. Ted and Song didn't get the job done, but they existed because United and Delta wanted Southwest's domestic success. The idea is still in the air, and I'll believe it'll brew into something in time to come.

[Gordo]

That is exactly why they would buy them out. If they can't compete with their own ideas, buy the ideas that are successful and generating the money.

I feel that the Song and Ted campaigns were both horrible investments because Delta and United were going into territory that they really had no knowledge on how to make it work. It was more a roll of the dice then a solid investment.

Again - Southwest is a much more VALUABLE airline than anyone else in the US, with more cash, more access to financing, and the highest market cap. It's the equivalent of saying that Yahoo should buy out Google.

[Capt AWACS]

If the buck is offered then I can't see how they would say no. Again, this is just a thought, and I'm not saying that this'll happen tomorrow, but I've see (as of you) a lot in the past month in regards to the airline industry, and I've also seen a lot with it that to this day I can't fathom it happened.

Point is anything can happen, and when it comes down to finances, these airlines have the 'I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine' mentality. If the incentive is there, then it's there.

Delta, American, and United have obviously claimed a stake in the international routes, but the term expansion is no stranger to any company. I can't believe that the thought will never cross there minds on how to expand and better their domestic routes. Ted and Song didn't get the job done, but they existed because United and Delta wanted Southwest's domestic success. The idea is still in the air, and I'll believe it'll brew into something in time to come.

You missed my post 5 back. No one really has the money to buy Southwest out.
United has 700k~ in unrestricted cash and bled out over 500$k this last quarter. If anything Continental and American (if CO and UA don't merge) can go in and chop up United and let if finally die the death it needs to die.

Ciao,
AWACS