[vid]

Suppose the Liberals and NDP merged before the election.

Suppose they called themselves the Liberal Democrats, and their party colour was yellow. (Like a similar party in the UK.)

Suppose everyone who voted for the Liberals and NDP voted for this party, and everyone who didn't still voted for their own parties.

Suppose this party had a leader who wasn't as underwhelming as Stéphane Dion or as unnerving as Jack Layton.

What would the results look like? Who would form government?

I wanted to know, so I made this:

http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/1654/ldpwe5.th.png (http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/1654/ldpwe5.png)

The Conservatives lose 32 seats, mostly in Ontario. The BQ loses 8 seats.

The composition of Parliament would be:

Liberal Democrats: 154
Conservatives: 111
Bloc Québécois: 41
Independents: 2

The opposition would also have 154 seats. The Liberal Democrats would form government because they would be the largest party.

Here are what seats would change hands if the Liberal and NDP votes are combined:

From the Conservatives:

PE Egmont
NS South Shore—St. Margaret's
NS West Nova
NB Fredericton
NB Miramichi
NB Saint John
QC Pontiac
ON Ottawa—Orléans
ON Ottawa West—Nepean
ON Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
ON Oak Ridges—Markham
ON Oshawa
ON Mississauga—Erindale
ON St. Catharines
ON Brant
ON Haldimand—Norfolk
ON Huron—Bruce
ON Kitchener Centre
ON Kitchener—Conestoga
ON Kitchener—Waterloo
ON Essex
ON London West
ON Kenora
MB Saint Boniface
SK Palliser
SK Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
SK Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar
BC Fleetwood—Port Kells
BC Surrey North
BC North Vancouver
BC Saanich—Gulf Islands
NU Nunavut

From the Bloc:

QC Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
QC Brome—Missisquoi
QC Saint-Lambert
QC Jeanne-Le Ber
QC Ahuntsic
QC Alfred-Pellan
QC Laval
QC Gatineau

This is just a hypothetical thing. I was curious. It isn't in support or opposition to a coalition government. It just is. For those of you who like numbers.

Speaking of which: 20,000th post. :5:

[SteelTown]

Congrats

What's the number of seats to get a majority again?

[vid]

155 to get a clear majority. 154 is half way because the number of seats is even right now, but that would be considered a majority by default I think.

I forgot to mention, this party would get 6,148,746 votes, 44.44% of the popular vote.

[SteelTown]

If a party got 154 I wouldn't be surprised if someone from the opposition switched to the government side to make it a majority, instant guarantee for junior cabinet position.

[Distill3d]

i'd vote for them...but only if they also merged with the Green Party.

[vid]

It's possible, though this would be a more left-wing party than the current Liberal party. This isn't taking into account that a merger between the Liberals and NDP would see some right wing Liberals defect to the Conservatives, and any Liberals who dislike the NDP defect to the Greens. The independents are André Arthur, a Libertarian who is pretty right wing, and Bill Casey, who was formerly a Conservative. He might join the party, but I doubt it. He hasn't joined the Liberals, and he describes himself as a Progressive Conservative. I don't see anyone switching from the Bloc to LD either.

If they merged with the Green Party I'd probably vote Conservative. :P When you throw in the Greens they gain about 5 more seats.

[Rathgrith]

Got allot of time on your hands Vid?

[canucklehead2]

That's pretty sweet. I was wondering the same thing, so it's nice to see that someone else took the idea to the next level and made a detailed map of this scenario... Bravo!

[wild wild west]

155 to get a clear majority. 154 is half way because the number of seats is even right now, but that would be considered a majority by default I think.

I forgot to mention, this party would get 6,148,746 votes, 44.44% of the popular vote.

Interesting.

Don't forget that the governing party usually has the role of Speaker of the House, and thus they would be down to 153.

Interesting scenario though. In reality though some members of the right wing of the Liberal Party may defect to the Conservatives as you have pointed out - so you may end up with, say, 145 or so seats for the new party.

[someone123]

In the long run I think this kind of thing would be bad for the federal government, unless a new far-left party were to emerge, which would very much be a possibility. The reality is that merging parties in this way is not a trivial process, as some have already alluded to.

Perhaps we could have a Moonbat/Wingnut coalition party for the worst MPs on both sides.

[HomeInMyShoes]

^Who would be left in the other parties?

Nice stuff vid. Definitely the best 20,000th post I've seen.

[93JC]

If the Liberal Party, NDP and Bloc Quebecois merged, would they then become the New Libs on the Bloc?

[NetMapel]

A better question to ask is... what if the Bloc never existed ;)

[vid]

Got allot of time on your hands Vid?

Obviously.

Interesting scenario though. In reality though some members of the right wing of the Liberal Party may defect to the Conservatives as you have pointed out - so you may end up with, say, 145 or so seats for the new party.

Yes, but considering the amount they would still take from the Conservatives it's likely that such a party would form government, at least going by the last elections numbers. There were only a handful of really close seats between the Lib-Dems and Conservatives. The merge was either enough to really push them over, or in the case of Western Canada, had little to no effect on the outcome. In Quebec on the other hand, it would weaken the non-BQ vote, and probably bring their seat count up, as there were a few three way races in Quebec.

If the Liberal Party, NDP and Bloc Quebecois merged, would they then become the New Libs on the Bloc?

:ack:

[touraccuracy]

If the Liberal Party, NDP and Bloc Quebecois merged, would they then become the New Libs on the Bloc?

ohhhhh that's good

[mmmatt]

Awesome thread vid! great work on the map :)

If the Liberal Party, NDP and Bloc Quebecois merged, would they then become the New Libs on the Bloc?

:haha: Classic

[Architype]

Good work Vid, that's exactly what I've been thinking for awhile now.

I think they should merge, over the loud protests of extreme leftists and extreme centrists (?), and provide a better working alternative to Conservatism.

In the long run I think this kind of thing would be bad for the federal government, unless a new far-left party were to emerge, which would very much be a possibility.

Wouldn't that role be filled by the Green Party?

[vid]

The Green Party isn't far left. It has some leftist policies but economically speaking it's unpalatable to most of the NDP. I think it would likely become the new centrist party if this merger happened, especially if they got another leader like Jim Harris. (Who was little more than a Conservative that liked trees.) Although, he recently quit the party due to internal struggles (several other members did too). May hasn't been the best leader for the party.

The Green Party's only real "extreme" is its libertarian side. They would most accurately be described as green-libertarian. Still pretty centred though. Relatively speaking of course, the Conservatives really aren't that far to the right of the Liberals.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_libertarianism

[Architype]

The Green Party isn't far left. It has some leftist policies but economically speaking it's unpalatable to most of the NDP. I think it would likely become the new centrist party if this merger happened, especially if they got another leader like Jim Harris. (Who was little more than a Conservative that liked trees.) Although, he recently quit the party due to internal struggles (several other members did too). May hasn't been the best leader for the party.

The Green Party's only real "extreme" is its libertarian side. They would most accurately be described as green-libertarian. Still pretty centred though. Relatively speaking of course, the Conservatives really aren't that far to the right of the Liberals.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_libertarianism

It's may not be left in the traditional sense like the NDP, but progressive or radical thinking outside the box is associated more with left wing, as the status quo is with the right. A party eventually becomes the product of the collective who vote for it, and in Canada that already includes many left wing thinkers. Simple left and right generalizations cannot easily be made anymore however, as the reality of policy is often more of a mix and match or cherry picking of ideas made to suit the moment. In Canada we would be better off paying attention to real political ideology and practice instead of the regional polarization that we have ended up with.

[Stanzmastertron3000]

Why's Ottawa so much smaller than Edmonton and Calgary?

[ScottFromCalgary]

Why's Ottawa so much smaller than Edmonton and Calgary?

Nice! I was hoping that this could turn into a regional battle. Well done. It's because Ottawa is full of commie pinkos.

[MonkeyRonin]

Why's Ottawa so much smaller than Edmonton and Calgary?

The size of the cities aren't to scale. And in terms of ridings, it has 9 vs. 8 in each of the Albertan cities.

[someone123]

Why didn't the Halifax-Moncton-Saint John-Fredericton-Charlottetown-Truro megalopolis get its own inset?

[vid]

...adical thinking outside the box is associated more with left wing, as the status quo is with the right.

Banning abortion and same sex marriage is status quo? Not that the current Conservative party supports but that's an example of where your statement isn't entirely correct. There is radical thinking from both sides, the left just happens to be louder than the right in our country's political climate.

Why's Ottawa so much smaller than Edmonton and Calgary?

I don't know. The person who made this map is from Ottawa, he copied it from Statscan's website which is technically illegal but whatever, Wikipedia doesn't appear to mind and Statscan probably doesn't know. The GTA is tiny compared to Montreal too, but that's ok.

Why didn't the Halifax-Moncton-Saint John-Fredericton-Charlottetown-Truro megalopolis get its own inset?

Fish don't count.

I didn't draw that map I just coloured it in!

[JayM]

Why didn't the Halifax-Moncton-Saint John-Fredericton-Charlottetown-Truro megalopolis get its own inset?

NICE! lol

[JayM]

Thunder Bay becomes the new Provincial Capital of the newly formed Province of New Western Ontario.

[vid]

I don't think I would want the name of the province to have Ontario in it.

[JayM]

I don't think I would want the name of the province to have Ontario in it.

I was thinking that before because the whole point in being a new province would to separate entirely from Ontario. lol

edit.

You can call it Keewatin..?

[mylesmalley]

Cool stuff, Vid. You definitely have far too much time on your hands.

I think all this activity in the past two months really outlines the fact that we're likely not going to see majority parliaments again, unless some kind of party consolidation happens. That's not necessarily a bad thing though.

My only beef with this scenario; dark blue, light blue, and bright yellow will make for some ugly-ass elections :p

[vid]

I tried to get the yellow as close to urine yellow as possible. :)

[mylesmalley]

I think I could learn to like it.

[Architype]

Banning abortion and same sex marriage is status quo? ...
There is radical thinking from both sides,
!

Abortion and same sex marriage are not part of the traditional status quo though.

Yes, but the right wing doesn't consider these things radical (it's from God), only us "radical" lefty wingers do.

The traditional definitions don't exactly fit anymore, but that is still more or less the images they have.