[Mille Sabords]

This data just released by CMHC: total housing starts by CMA for 2008. Interesting to see the trends in Western Canada and how things are shaping up for places like Toronto, where they had twice as many multiples built in '08 as the year before.

Here goes, in descending order of starts total: (in order, 2008 / 2007 / % change)

The Big Six:

Toronto: 42,212 / 33,293 / +27%
Montréal: 21,927 / 23,233 / - 6%
Vancouver: 19,591 / 20,736 / - 6%
Calgary: 11,438 / 13,505 / -15%
Ottawa-Gatineau: 10,302 / 9,294 / +11%
Edmonton: 6,615 / 14,888 / -56%

And the Next Six:

Québec: 5,457 / 5,284 / +3%
Hamilton: 3,529 / 3,004 / +17%
Winnipeg: 3,009 / 3,371 / -11%
Kitchener: 2,634 / 2,740 / -4%
London: 2,385 / 3,141 / -24%
Saskatoon: 2,319 / 2,380 / -3%


For Vid:

Thunder Bay: 167 / 249 / -33%
(bummer man, sorry to see that)

[le calmar]

Interesting... Do you have the numbers for Sherbrooke?

[Mille Sabords]

Interesting... Do you have the numbers for Sherbrooke?

Salut Le Calmar,

Sherbrooke: 1,627 / 1,318 / +23%

Une bonne année quoi!
:cheers:

[MolsonExport]

wow, edmonton's decline is even greater than London's...or TB.

[Wooster]

Starts this year all across Canada will definitely be down from last year.

[Coldrsx]

wow, edmonton's decline is even greater than London's...or TB.

yup... super crazy boom to major cool off does that.

[caltrane74]

Can anyone say "zero" housing starts in '09?

[0773|=\]

I wonder why Edmonton's starts are so much more volatile than Calgary's...

[vid]

2007 was higher because Thunder Bay had 3 or 4 multiple unit starts that year, while in 2008 I don't think we had any, as the units were being sold through the year. 2009 will obviously be slow. If the economy gets better in 2009, 2010 could be a good year, as the final phase of a large development in Port Arthur should begin then.

On the plus side, I know of at least 3 starts in the downtown areas, as well as about a dozen renovations of neglected or abandoned homes in the cores. One up the street from my apartment was abandoned for about a decade and is now a large four bedroom, 2 storey house with a 2 car garage and wrap around deck. :eek: And this is downtown. Ish.

[mylesmalley]

Is it possible to get a link to the full list? I can't seem to find it on their website.

[Mille Sabords]

Is it possible to get a link to the full list? I can't seem to find it on their website.

https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/b2c/b2c/init.do?language=en&shop=Z01EN&areaID=0000000058&productID=00000000580000000001

This is the link to their Preliminary Starts Data publication, free to download.

[mmmatt]

Is it possible to get a link to the full list? I can't seem to find it on their website.

Took me about 10 mins to find it...their web-site is almost as bad as stats can haha.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64695/64695_2009_M01.pdf

Moncton:
1,359 / 1,425 / -5

Not bad all things considered (last year was a record year).

[mylesmalley]

Surprising how Halifax's starts are only 30% higher than Moncton, in spite of 3x the population.

[1ajs]

winnipeg has a lot shortage witch is part of the reason why we have a drop... though the shortage will be ending soon...

[Coldrsx]

I wonder why Edmonton's starts are so much more volatile than Calgary's...

we went nuts here... seriously nuts... look at the avg. stats from 01-now and see the ridiculous growth in Edm.

[Mille Sabords]

I know in Ottawa, condos and townhouses were the main drivers. Singles were down, they account for about 40% of total housing sales and construction these days.

Toronto had almost 31,000 multiple units, much of these in condo buildings. Single starts in 2008 were down from the year before in the GTA. Big question is, do we have a condo bubble there again? Memories of 1990 are haunting...

[Coldrsx]

^indeed, but the market for downtown living in toronto is far more accepted now.

[harls]

Ottawa/Gatineau broken down:

Ottawa-Gatineau: 10,302 / 9,294 / +11%

Ottawa: 6,998 / 6,508 / +8%
Gatineau: 3,304 / 2,788 / +19%

Gatineau is ~1/3 the size of Ottawa, yet had almost 1/2 the amount of housing starts.

[Spocket]

winnipeg has a lot shortage witch is part of the reason why we have a drop... though the shortage will be ending soon...

Possibly. I believe that it's actually due to a decrease in multi-family starts.

[1ajs]

Possibly. I believe that it's actually due to a decrease in multi-family starts.
who knows.. but still thers a lot shortage fore the time being till waverly west gets going witch is soon no?

[Spocket]

^Actually , the first homes in Waverley West are already built.

[1ajs]

^Actually , the first homes in Waverley West are already built.
realy? dam and i still havent quite figured out where that is

[Kevin_foster]

It's too bad Edmonton's slow housing starts don't have to do with the refusal by the people to buy crap product :( ... wouldn't that be awesome!

[Elmira Guy]

It's too bad Edmonton's slow housing starts don't have to do with the refusal by the people to buy crap product :( ... wouldn't that be awesome!

What do you mean? Is there an abundance of ... "crap" housing in Edmonton?

[1ajs]

What do you mean? Is there an abundance of ... "crap" housing in Edmonton?
yea its callber chip board construction all new homes are uilt this way

[Mille Sabords]

Ottawa/Gatineau broken down:

Ottawa-Gatineau: 10,302 / 9,294 / +11%

Ottawa: 6,998 / 6,508 / +8%
Gatineau: 3,304 / 2,788 / +19%

Gatineau is ~1/3 the size of Ottawa, yet had almost 1/2 the amount of housing starts.

Good point, Harls. I guess that makes you a part of the statistics, seeing the trend of Ontarians fleeing to lower Quebec housing costs and daycare!

:D :cheers:

[Architype]

Not mentioned here; St. John's NL is doing well:

St.John's 1,863 / 1,480 / +26%

[Greco Roman]

Good point, Harls. I guess that makes you a part of the statistics, seeing the trend of Ontarians fleeing to lower Quebec housing costs and daycare!

:D :cheers:

Why are Ontarians "fleeing" to lower Quebec?

[mmmatt]

I was bored at work and this was the result:

Housing Starts, Rate Per Capita

All data compiled from CHMC 2008 housing starts and StatsCan 2006 census.

All inclusive.

Rank. City Name-----Population---Starts---Rate (per 100,000)

1. Kelowna, BC------162,276-----2,257----1390.8
2. Moncton, NB------126,424-----1,359----1075.0
3. Calgary, AB-------1,079,310---11,438---1059.8
4. St. John's, NL-----181,113-----1,863----1028.6
5. Saskatoon, SK----233,923-----2,319----991.4
6. Vancouver, ON----2,116,581--19,591----925.6
7. Ottawa, ON/QC---1,130,761---10,302----911.1
8. Sherbrooke, QC---186,952-----1,627-----870.3
9. Guelph, ON--------127,009-----1,087----855.8
10. Toronto, ON------5,113,149---42,212---825.6
11. Trois-Rivières, QC-141,529-----1,148----811.1
12. Abbotsford, BC----159,020-----1,285----808.1
13. Barrie, ON---------177,061-----1,416----799.7
14. Quebec City, QC---715,515-----5,457----762.7
15. Regina, SK---------194,971-----1,375----705.2
16. Saint John, NB------122,389-----832-----679.8
17. Edmonton, AB------1,034,945----6,615---639.2
18. Montreal, QC-------3,635,571----21,927--603.1
19. Oshawa, ON--------330,594------1,987---601.0
20. Kitchener, ON-------451,235-----2,634----583.7
21. Victoria, BC---------330,088-----1,905----577.1
22. Saguenay, QC------151,643-----869------573.1
23. Halifax, NS----------372,858-----2,096----562.1
24. London, ON---------457,720-----2,385-----521.1
25. Hamilton, ON--------692,911-----3,529-----508.0
26. Kingston, ON--------152,358-----672-------441.1
27. Winnipeg, MB--------694,668-----3,009-----433.2
28. Peterborough, ON----116,570-----428-------367.2
29. Brantford, ON--------124,607-----432-------346.7
30. Greater Sudbury, ON--158,258-----543------343.1
31. St. C.-Niagara, ON----390,317-----1,138----291.6
32. Windsor, ON----------323,342------453-----140.1
33. Thunder Bay, ON------122,907------167-----135.9

If I messed up something let me know.

PS. Sorry vid :(

[vid]

No need to be sorry. :P Housing starts are down but renovations are up, the downtown populations are starting to grow. (Downtown Fort William grew by about 50% between 2001 and 2006, my census tract which surrounds downtown has had a few renovations, one that brought back a long abandoned house and another just a block away from there, likely started by the same guy, has just begun work.) And as I pointed out, we had a higher number of multi-unit starts in 2007 compared to normal (64 in 2007, only 2 in 2008, a duplex in Parkdale I think). The resale market is satisfying demand, and most of the houses for sale are in the old parts of the city, which means people are returning to the cores, and I'll take that over new houses in Parkdale and Sherwood Park any day. :)

Why are Ontarians "fleeing" to lower Quebec?

Less expensive and a better quality of life, apparently. If you're a family with two working parents, Quebec's daycare system (which is a model for the country) would take care of the kids while the parents are away. Taxes are probably lower in the suburban parts of Gatineau compared to Ottawa, and you can live closer to downtown since there is no greenbelt on that side pushing suburbs away from the city. Just a theory.

[MonctonRad]

Using MMMatt's table, I thought I would break things down on a regional basis. This might be more meaningful.

Atlantic

1 Moncton NB............ 1075.0
2 St. John's NF............1028.6
3 Saint John NB............679.8
4 Halifax NS.................562.1

Quebec

1 Sherbrooke...............870.3
2 Trois Riviere..............811.1
3 Quebec City..............762.7
4 Montreal...................603.1
5 Saguenay.................573.1

Ontario

1 Ottawa.....................911.1
2 Guelph......................855.8
3 Toronto.....................825.6
4 Barrie........................799.7
5 Oshawa.....................601.1
6 Kitchener...................583.7
7 London......................521.1
8 Hamilton....................508.0
9 Kingston....................441.1
10 Peterborough............367.2
11 Brantford..................346.7
12 Sudbury...................343.1
13 St. Catherines...........291.6
14 Windsor....................140.1
15 Thunder Bay..............135.9

The West

1 Kelowna BC................1390.8
2 Calgary AB.................1059.8
3 Saskatoon SK.............. 991.4
4 Vancouver BC..............925.6
5 Abbotsford BC..............808.1
6 Regina SK....................705.2
7 Edmonton AB...............639.2
8 Victoria BC...................577.1
9 Winnipeg MB................433.2

a few random observations.......

- The fastest growing communities in Canada on a per capita basis are located in Atlantic Canada and the far west (AB & BC). Go Moncton! (Sorry, I should try to be objective here). :haha:

- The most rapidly growing CMA's (per capita) seem to be either the larger CMA's or the smaller CMA's. The mid sized cities seem to lag behind for some reason.

- Montreal continues to be the slowest growing major CMA in the country.

- Southern Ontario (especially the area in orbit around Toronto) and the National Capital Region are doing well. Niagara and southwestern Ontario are in trouble. Are we beginning to se the development of a Canadian "rust belt"?

- Northern Ontario and Manitoba seem to be pretty dead.

[Prairie Guy]

Manitoba seem to be pretty dead.

Umm, no. Manitoba is far from dead. Steinbach, Winkler and Brandon have been growing like weeds with all the immigration and interprovincial migration. Winnipeg is also far from dead. Please don't make these insulting remarks unless you get your facts straight.

[mmmatt]

Umm, no. Manitoba is far from dead. Steinbach, Winkler and Brandon have been growing like weeds with all the immigration and interprovincial migration. Winnipeg is also far from dead. Please don't make these insulting remarks unless you get your facts straight.

Well in the limited spectrum of this particular set of information his statement would appear true. Im sure he didnt mean that its DEAD all around (which it certainly is not), just commenting on what the data is saying.

[MonctonRad]

Umm, no. Manitoba is far from dead. Steinbach, Winkler and Brandon have been growing like weeds with all the immigration and interprovincial migration. Winnipeg is also far from dead. Please don't make these insulting remarks unless you get your facts straight.

Sorry, no offensive was intended and I apologize for the "dead" comment, it was perhaps somewhat harsh.

It is true however that of the nine largest CMA's in the country, Winnipeg has the lowest rate of new housing construction and it ranks 27th out of all 33 CMA's in Canada.

I am ashamed to say that Winnipeg is the only major city in Canada that I have never visited so I cannot claim to be able to have any opinion of your fair city, informed or otherwise. In this particular case, the statistics speak for themselves.

Also, as you rightfully point out, other communities in Manitoba such as Brandon were being unfairly besmirched by my analysis based solely on the growth rate of Winnipeg itself.

There, can we be friends now? ;)

[trueviking]

^yeah, i have to admit that i am surprised by winnipeg's comparatively low housing start numbers....

when you consider that winnipeg's economic growth (3.3%) was second only to the saskatchewan cities in 2008....far ahead of hamilton (0.3%) and ahead of quebec (2.3%), both of which show stronger housing start numbers. (quebec far stronger)

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/documents.aspx?did=2717

...and winnipeg had one of the highest housing cost increases in the country in 2008

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/081010/dq081010c-eng.htm

even our population growth of more than 12000 people last year is a 20 year high for the city....i am pretty sure it was quite a bit higher than hamilton and similar to quebec.

it is odd that all of that didnt result in greater housing starts....a bit of an anomoly in the market.

all i can say is wait 'till '09!...slow and steady wins the race.

[mmmatt]

...and winnipeg had one of the highest housing cost increases in the country in 2008

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/081010/dq081010c-eng.htm

even our population growth of more than 12000 people last year is a 20 year high for the city....i am pretty sure it was quite a bit higher than hamilton and similar to quebec.



Quick population growth and not enough new housing on the market would cause the prices to go up. If the demand is there its odd that there wouldnt be more starts...Perhaps there is a shortage of construction workers or materials?

[Just Build It]

I was surprised by how low Winnipeg's were as well. Keep in mind that economic growth doesn't always equal population growth. I suspect Winnipeg's population growth last year might have helped absorb inventory rather than affect new starts. Were the population stats from a civic census?

^yeah, i have to admit that i am surprised by winnipeg's comparatively low housing start numbers....

when you consider that winnipeg's economic growth (3.3%) was second only to the saskatchewan cities in 2008....far ahead of hamilton (0.3%) and ahead of quebec (2.3%), both of which show stronger housing start numbers. (quebec far stronger)

http://www.conferenceboard.ca/documents.aspx?did=2717

...and winnipeg had one of the highest housing cost increases in the country in 2008

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/081010/dq081010c-eng.htm

even our population growth of more than 12000 people last year is a 20 year high for the city....i am pretty sure it was quite a bit higher than hamilton and similar to quebec.

it is odd that all of that didnt result in greater housing starts....a bit of an anomoly in the market.

all i can say is wait 'till '09!...slow and steady wins the race.

[Acajack]

RE: Gatineau vs. Ottawa

Less expensive and a better quality of life, apparently. If you're a family with two working parents, Quebec's daycare system (which is a model for the country) would take care of the kids while the parents are away. Taxes are probably lower in the suburban parts of Gatineau compared to Ottawa, and you can live closer to downtown since there is no greenbelt on that side pushing suburbs away from the city. Just a theory.

All pretty accurate, except for the property taxes, which are about the same in both cities. Of course, don't forget that income taxes are quite a bit higher in Quebec than in Ontario. (But for young families, the combination of inexpensive housing and cheap daycare more than offsets the income tax difference.)

On the exodus across the river, it's still pretty much a drop in the ocean for Ottawa, given the relative sizes of the two cities. However, if there is any area where the impact is significant, it's on Ottawa's francophone population. They make up about 15% of Ottawa's population, yet probably about half or more of the Ottawa residents who move to Gatineau are Franco-Ontarians. On my street in Gatineau (35 houses), there are at least four of us (and that's just what I know of) who went to the same Franco-Ontarian high school as me in Ottawa!

Finally, regarding Harls, I am sure pretty he moved directly from Montreal to Gatineau...

[Architype]

Why are Ontarians "fleeing" to lower Quebec?

No, "Lower Quebec" is not meant as a place, it's to "lower" (cheaper) housing costs within Quebec.

[WhipperSnapper]

All pretty accurate, except for the property taxes, which are about the same in both cities. Of course, don't forget that income taxes are quite a bit higher in Quebec than in Ontario.

However, heat and hydro are half the costs; at least when I lived there.

[harls]

Finally, regarding Harls, I am sure pretty he moved directly from Montreal to Gatineau...

Yep, that's true... but I had lived in Toronto before that. Sort of an indirect 'flight'.

However, heat and hydro are half the costs; at least when I lived there.

Hydro and heat are cheaper, but I think the gap is closing.

[Prairie Guy]

There, can we be friends now? ;)

Only if you promise to come and visit ;)

[newflyer]

...

[Spocket]

Regarding Winnipeg's performance ,

I find the numbers a bit surprising as well. They're surprising for a number of reasons actually.
Firstly, we had a lot shortage in the first half of the year which also had the effect of driving up prices. Secondly, as was alluded to, Winnipeg and Manitoba as a whole have just seen their best population growth in 36 years. With that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised to see the rate of growth increase over at least the next couple of years. The Alberta boom is over (for now) and we have a very successful international program for immigrants. Not to mention that it looks like we're very well positioned to weather the current economic storm without too much damage at all (especially compared to virtually every other jurisdiction in North America)

So what gives ? My best guess is that it's because Winnipeg is a blue-collar town. Our newest arrivals don't yet have the cash to throw at a new home that they may not need anyway and given that they are a transient population based on their past behaviour , setting down roots is, for the time being, not necessarily on their agenda.
Secondly, we have a serious lack of multiple-family units built or under construction. Our vacancy rate is extremely low but there is no incentive right now for apartment construction. In fact, we appear to have a policy that works against the potential construction of apartment buildings (although it has been relaxed in recent years) In short, too much hassle for not enough return on the investment. Winnipeg could probably absorb at least two thousand new units of multi-family construction right now while maintaining a healthy vacancy rate but virtually every large scale proposal that has come along over the last few years has been shot down for various reasons (some for legitimate, some just , well, for stupid reasons)

Basically, our greatest potential market in regards to new construction remains untapped for reasons that have nothing to do with demand.

[harls]

Gatineau (city) had more housing starts than Winnipeg in 2008 which was surprising, but to be fair it's got 850,000 people on it's doorstep.