[bluesxtreme]

Dubai has some competition...

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-beijing-bust22-2009feb22,0,5564951.story

Many buildings in the city's impressive skyline are empty.
By Barbara Demick

February 22, 2009
Reporting from Beijing -- "Empty," says Jack Rodman, an expert in distressed real estate, as he points from the window of his 40th-floor office toward a silver-skinned prism rising out of the Beijing skyline.

"Beautiful building, but not a single tenant.

"Completely empty.

"Empty."

So goes the refrain as his finger skips from building to building, each flashier than the next, and few of them more than barely occupied.

Beijing went through a building boom before the 2008 Summer Olympics that filled a staid communist capital with angular architectural feats that grace the covers of glossy design magazines.

Now, six months after the Games ended, the city continues to dazzle by night, with neon and floodlights dancing across the skyline. By day, though, it is obvious that many are "see-through" buildings, to use the term coined during the Texas real estate bust of the 1980s.

By Rodman's calculations, 500 million square feet of commercial real estate has been developed in Beijing since 2006, more than all the office space in Manhattan. And that doesn't include huge projects developed by the government. He says 100 million square feet of office space is vacant -- a 14-year supply if it filled up at the same rate as in the best years, 2004 through '06, when about 7 million square feet a year was leased.

"The scale of development was unprecedented anywhere in the world," said Rodman, a Los Angeles native who lives in Beijing, running a firm called Global Distressed Solutions. "It defied logic. It just doesn't make sense."

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-beijing-bust22-2009feb22,0,5564951.story

[Stratosphere]

In a related news...

Beijing's Bird's Nest to be Transformed into Shopping Center

The area around Beijing's massive Bird's Nest stadium will be turned into a shopping and entertainment complex in three to five years, a state news agency said Friday.

Officially known as the Beijing National Stadium, the showpiece of the Beijing Olympics has fallen into disuse since the end of the games. Paint is already peeling in some areas, and the only visitors these days are tourists who pay $7 to walk on the stadium floor and browse a pricey souvenir shop.

Plans call for the $450 million stadium to anchor a complex of shops and entertainment outlets in three to five years, Xinhua News Agency reported, citing operator Citic Group. The company will continue to develop tourism as a major draw for the Bird's Nest, while seeking sports and entertainment events.

The only confirmed event at the 91,000-seat stadium this year is Puccini's opera "Turandot," set for Aug. 8 — the one-year anniversary of the Olympics' opening ceremony. The stadium has no permanent tenant after Beijing's top football club, Guo'an, backed out of a deal to play there.

Details about the development plans were not available. A person who answered the phone at Citic Group on Friday said offices were closed for the Chinese New Year holiday.

A symbol of China's rising power and confidence, the stadium, whose knickname described its lattice of exterior steel beams, may never recoup its hefty construction cost, particularly amid a global economic slump. Maintenance of the structure alone costs $8.8 million annually, making it difficult to turn a profit, Xinhua said.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,485725,00.html

[Chicago2020]

does anyone have any recent pictures of the stadium???

[krudmonk]

does anyone have any recent pictures of the stadium???
Is ipecac not readily available?

[nito]

does anyone have any recent pictures of the stadium???I was in Beijing over Xmas, and I visited the stadium. It feels almost as if it is in the middle of nowhere, and the place is dominated not by tourists but people trying to sell you rubbish. I have never seen so many people trying to sell tourist trash where they outnumber the tourists!

http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/5320/img3664.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/img3664.jpg/1/w1024.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img13/img3664.jpg/1/)

[JDRCRASH]

GO UAE should read this article because if this is what is happing to China, I can only imagine how bad it is gonna be in Dubai.

[staff]

:previous:
But this really isn't "what is happening in China". This overflow of office space is confined to Beijing alone and is solely due to the 2006- boom when the city built more office space than exists in all of Manhattan. Such growth totally defies logic (as the article says) - you could basically have built that much office space in all of the US and it would still be too much of it.
As for the sporting venues - they haven't been in much use since the Olympics simply because there haven't been many sporting events since then. But it is obvious that a city of almost 20 million inhabitants need proper sporting facilities, regardless if some of them stand empty a lot of the time.

Basically all major- and medium cities in China have a critical shortage of grade A office space - Shanghai only managed satisfied the demand at the end of last year with the completion of a high number of modern office towers, including the SWFC.

Residential space is always at critical shortage in all Chinese cities, and the developers are trying to keep up with the inflow of as much as a million or more migrants every year to the largest cities.


So no, this is nothing like what's going on in Dubai, whose growth is completely artificial and in the long run unsustainable. The boom of office- and residential developments in Chinese cities (huge cities in the world's largest nation that has seen stable growth of over 10%, year after year) is driven by demand.
In fact, the current boom of highrise and skyscraper developments in China is the largest demand-driven boom in the history of the world. You could say it's the exact opposite of Dubai (despite the fact that some people like to group them together, just because both are "building a lot").

[smussuw]

What is happening in Dubai?

[The Chemist]

I was in Beijing over Xmas, and I visited the stadium. It feels almost as if it is in the middle of nowhere, and the place is dominated not by tourists but people trying to sell you rubbish. I have never seen so many people trying to sell tourist trash where they outnumber the tourists!

http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/5320/img3664.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/img3664.jpg/1/w1024.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img13/img3664.jpg/1/)

I entirely disagree. I was there in February (the week after the holiday, when most people had gone back to work) and there were still a large number of tourists around - and very few vendors trying to sell 'rubbish'. I couldn't say it's in the middle of nowhere when it's right on a subway line...

[Jeeper]

How does a 90,000 seat stadium go unused? China has pro sports, don't they?

[Jasonhouse]

No, not like we do.

[nito]

I entirely disagree. I was there in February (the week after the holiday, when most people had gone back to work) and there were still a large number of tourists around - and very few vendors trying to sell 'rubbish'. I couldn't say it's in the middle of nowhere when it's right on a subway line...I don't have access to my laptop right now, but I took a picture of the avenue leading south from the stadium which was scattered by tons of hawkers. I'd estimate that they outnumbered tourists 5:1.

It actually got so irritating being harassed every 10 seconds, for the same rubbish that you said no to 10 times previously that I just had to get out of there. Worst stadium experience in my life, and I don't know why you bring up the subway line...it goes nowhere at the moment, and even the connection to line 10 goes nowhere!

[Crawford]

:previous:
But this really isn't "what is happening in China". This overflow of office space is confined to Beijing alone and is solely due to the 2006- boom when the city built more office space than exists in all of Manhattan.

:rolleyes: More hyperbole. Beijing doesn't have close to Manhattan's office space, and what it has is empty, and won't be filled for decades, if ever.

How could a smaller city where 5% of the workers have white collar positions produce more office space than much larger cities where 10 times the proportion of workers have white collar positions?

I doubt Beijing has 20% of the office space of the NY MSA. None of the Chinese cities have large amounts of office space relative to the first-tier Asian office markets in Tokyo and Seoul.

China is a very poor manufacturing-based export economy. It doesn't need office space.

:
Basically all major- and medium cities in China have a critical shortage of grade A office space - Shanghai only managed satisfied the demand at the end of last year with the completion of a high number of modern office towers, including the SWFC.

Pudong is empty. The entire office boom in Pudong is a farce. Those buildings might as well be built on the moon.

Puxi is somewhat demand-driven, but not Pudong.
:
In fact, the current boom of highrise and skyscraper developments in China is the largest demand-driven boom in the history of the world.

Sounds like famous last words. China's population will decrease signficantly over the next few decades (faster even than Japan), and their cities are now experiencing unprecedented net outflow.

The bubble has burst, and it won't be much better than Dubai (though at least China will always have a massive domestic market, the second largest on earth for now, and third after India in a few years).

[staff]

China is a very poor manufacturing-based export economy. It doesn't need office space.
Wow! Of all the misinformed bullshit you have written in China related topics on these forums, this has to be the most laughable and absurd so far.

Great work, Crawford. :cheers:

[Crawford]

:haha: And you don't have a response but to call names, because you know it's true.

China IS poor, IS a manufacturing-based economy, and IS dependent on exports. There is no way Beijing can absorb such dramatic levels of office space.

The most optimistic population claims for Beijing in 2009 is for 17 million; 30% of that figure is rural migrants.

At the same time, China has a per capita income about 40% that of Mexico, a poor country most Westerners consider part of the developing world. And Beijing is hardly the richest part of China.

Knowing these facts, you can go right ahead and claim that the Beijing service economy absorbs 100x the office space of Tokyo every month or whatever; it doesn't make it true.

[nito]

I entirely disagree. I was there in February (the week after the holiday, when most people had gone back to work) and there were still a large number of tourists around - and very few vendors trying to sell 'rubbish'. I couldn't say it's in the middle of nowhere when it's right on a subway line...As per my previous post...the proof is in the pudding.

Originally I actually thought it was busy with tourists, but you can clearly pick out the crap in their hands. It was almost like an ad-hoc bazaar, except all the stuff is identical, with an atmosphere as if it was government organised (the batallions of soldiers-cum-security officers did jack all).

The problem is though, its not the transport, the food, or the attractions that can spoil a place - its the people. Beijing's citizens need to change.

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/5135/img3667.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/img3667.jpg/1/w768.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img514/img3667.jpg/1/)

[staff]

Crawford,

Call names? Stop putting words in people's mouths, Crawford. Nobody has done such things.


Knowing these facts, you can go right ahead and claim that the Beijing service economy absorbs 100x the office space of Tokyo every month or whatever; it doesn't make it true.

Sorry, I don't see anyone who have made such ridiculous claims. In fact, I said in my previous post that there is indeed an over-supply of office space in Beijing, due to the massive boom of office construction in previous years. So again, don't try to make it look like people have made claims that you made up yourself.



You on the other hand have claimed that:

1. China "doesn't need office space" due to the nature of its economy.

This bullshit shouldn't even warrant a response I think.




2. "Pudong is empty. The entire office boom in Pudong is a farce."

Here are the vacancy levels for Shanghai per Q4 2008:

http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/5387/shanghaivacancy.jpghttp://img515.imageshack.us/img515/9781/shanghaivacancy2.jpg
Source (http://colliers.com/Content/Repositories/Base/Markets/China/English/Market_Report/PDFs/Sha_office_Q408.pdf)

As you can see, the vacancy rates are generally stable at around 5% but peaked at the second half of 2008 mainly due to a huge addition of office space in Pudong (SWFC, Jasper Tower, One Lujiazui, Global Finance Tower etc. - ie. massive supertalls and 200m+ office towers - were all opened during this time) as I wrote in my earlier post.

The second chart shows the same thing, there's a current but decreasing over-supply of space in Pudong at a mere 16%, while the other main CBDs are stable at around 5% [compared to an overall vacancy rate in Manhattan of over 11% (http://colliers.com/Content/Repositories/Base/Markets/NewYork/English/Market_Report/PDFs/NewYorkJanuary2009.pdf) btw].

"Empty" and "not demand driven"? Allow me to smirk...




It is also interesting that you 3. mentioned Seoul as the first-tier Asian office market in the sentence just before you declared that "China doesn't need office space"
because it's a "poor manufacturing-based export economy".

South Korea was exactly that (with a per capita annual income of about $60 in the 1960s) before the rapid economic growth in the 80s and 90s - the main difference is that South Korea's home market is quite small while China's is one of the largest in the world (despite currently being "very poor").



Generally I've stopped arguing about China's economy, rise etc. because time will not allow you to deny the truth eventually, but this kind of bullshit just deserves a response. You do deserve credit though for almost making it sound like you know what you're talking about. :haha:
Either you're are lying to make it look like you're right, or your just that clueless about this.

[urbanactivist]

I've never been to Beijing, but case in point...

A good friend of mine is an orchestral musician for a symphony there. He is from Texas, but is pretty competent in Mandarin (which I'm certain has improved since last I saw him). After the Olympics, the government in Beijing paid him to hang out in parts of the city, speak VERY bad Chinese with an American accent, and basically just be a tourist. He said that he learned about the job from another musician that does the same thing.

Not trying to judge here, but that's just what he told me.

[bricky]

Economic statistics, especially in a one-party state obsessed with maintaining power through keeping a lid on any kind of mass protests or disharmony, can be easily manipulated, and even fabricated. Even Western 3rd party reports on China tend to be biased, as say American banks or consulting companies doing business in China don't want to get on the government's bad side, in a country where government connections are paramount. Hence, the need for "reading tea leaves", anecdotal information, and looking at more difficult to manipulate secondary data. That's what happens when information can't flow freely.

Crawford is right. As of 2009, China is poor. It is primarily a manufacturing oriented country. And there was a massive speculative construction bubble in the country that has now popped.

China in 2030 will be far more prosperous than it is today. It will have gone a large way toward transitioning to a developed, white-collar economy. However, the potential market in 2020 or 2030 doesn't help sell an apartment or rent an office building in 2009-10. Someone in China - whether it's the banks, construction companies, or government, is going to be left holding the bag.

I've been lurking on this site for a while, and from his posts, it's obvious that staff dislikes America and likes China. Hey, how about you get that giant chip off your shoulder!

[JDRCRASH]

So no, this is nothing like what's going on in Dubai, whose growth is completely artificial and in the long run unsustainable.

This is exactly my point; Dubai was never completely a demand-driven city. And perhaps this is not what is going on in the rest of China. But if Beijing is suffering this bad, Dubai will be FAR worse.

[The Chemist]

Pudong is empty. The entire office boom in Pudong is a farce. Those buildings might as well be built on the moon.

If it's empty, where do all the business men and women I see getting off the subway every morning at Lujiazui go?

Not sure what you've got against China, but your diatribes certainly don't seem to let facts get in their way. :rolleyes:

[simcityaustin]

I'm sorry, but China's current growth IS unsustainable. I'm sure it's a great place and has other industries burgeoning. I'm also aware that the quality China produces has been pretty good recently. That being said, China is giving out $585 billion, subsidizing industries to maintain 8% growth which means producing when there are no buyers.....that's not sustainable. Not to mention China's dependence on the dollar....the largest holder of US treasuries....that doesn't help. Plus there will be a point when all the pollution and other lack of environmental regulations will come to bite China in the butt as they spend billions in remediation and new equipment.

However China is categorized as an upper-middle income country w/a GDP somewhere in the 5k per capita area....of course we all know wealth is spread disproportionately ....but where isn't it?

here's an article from NYT about unemployment and rural workers having to return --> http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/business/worldbusiness/06yuan.html?partner=rss

[Jasonhouse]

You people ripping on China as if you have any clue what you're talking about, you folks DO realize that it's over four times more populous than America, right?

lolol... Man, this thread is hilarious.

[mhays]

Also, it's urbanizing at a rate of many millions per year, while attempting to keep growth away from food-production areas.

If a metro is growing by hundreds of thousands per year (no idea about Beijing's pace) and most of its growth is highrises, it would be warranted for hundreds of highrises to be built every year.

[simcityaustin]

I'm not ripping on China. I love China. I'm just saying that I believe they are pursuing unsustainable growth. I'd also argue that Americans spend more than they can afford too, but that shouldn't make me 'unpatriotic'

...and might I add that I do know what I'm talking about. I interface with PhD's every day that have written books on Global Marketing/Global Business. (and study the subject myself...no expert, but I'm knowledgeable)

[SpongeG]

:rolleyes: More hyperbole. Beijing doesn't have close to Manhattan's office space, and what it has is empty, and won't be filled for decades, if ever.

How could a smaller city where 5% of the workers have white collar positions produce more office space than much larger cities where 10 times the proportion of workers have white collar positions?

I doubt Beijing has 20% of the office space of the NY MSA. None of the Chinese cities have large amounts of office space relative to the first-tier Asian office markets in Tokyo and Seoul.

China is a very poor manufacturing-based export economy. It doesn't need office space.



I think you missed the point

they built all that office space which was too much to begin with - when it was constructed it was useless but they built it anyway

[nito]

You people ripping on China as if you have any clue what you're talking about, you folks DO realize that it's over four times more populous than America, right?

lolol... Man, this thread is hilarious.I think the huge population is the primary reason holding back China from break away development: there is simply not the resources in the mid-long term. After all, there is a reason why China is gaining an interest in China (much like Britain was 200 years ago).

[dimondpark]

I was in Beijing over Xmas, and I visited the stadium. It feels almost as if it is in the middle of nowhere,
I went to the Olympics and felt the same way. Its in like this mammoth plaza like thing and feels like a huge parking lot-except there are no cars.

[ethereal_reality]

I read where they're using the National Swim Center
(the watercube or 'bubble' building) for a dancing fountain show
with lighting effects. And the article made this sound like a good thing. :(

[MolsonExport]

I was in Beijing over Xmas, and I visited the stadium. It feels almost as if it is in the middle of nowhere, and the place is dominated not by tourists but people trying to sell you rubbish. I have never seen so many people trying to sell tourist trash where they outnumber the tourists!

http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/5320/img3664.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/img3664.jpg/1/w1024.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img13/img3664.jpg/1/)

That is a real, real shame. Such a wonderful structure. Pave paradise, put up a shopping mall.

[urbanactivist]

You people ripping on China as if you have any clue what you're talking about, you folks DO realize that it's over four times more populous than America, right?

lolol... Man, this thread is hilarious.

More like five times the population of the US.

I'm certainly not going to proclaim that "the American system" is the best way to run a nation... look at where the last eight years have gotten us. But although the US may be a smaller nation, 305,000,000 is nothing to sneeze at.

In regards to who's better off, we're never going to agree on that. People have different standards of what is considered "rich", "impoverished", etc. Like the slums in India, many of those folks don't look at themselves as living in poverty.

But we can agree that China is a nation of vast disparity among its rich and poor... much more extreme than probably anything in the United States. So people are suffering here with the current recession... what do you think the hundreds of millions of impoverished Chinese are going through??? A "bust" in China is more like THE Great Depression in the US.

[Nowhereman1280]

^^^ five times? Really? The US has 305 million, China has between 1.2 and 1.3 billion depending on who's counting. That is not 5 times 305 million. That is a little over 4 times, not even close to 5 times.

In any case, how much larger China is than the US population wise is completely irrelevant. It doesn't matter how many people there are if the government doesn't treat them like human beings. If you don't have well protected property rights, then how do you expect to fill up property?

[nergie]

I have spent plenty of time in China as an expat for a major oil company. Regardless of how much China boosters or Chinese posters want to claim that China is not a manufacturing based economy, it is and several of those so called people getting off the subway to got to the offices are people that work for these manufacturers.

This is the natural progression of most economic systems, agrarian-manufacturing-service. These broad classifications can be broken down into different levels.

For example, China is a large manufacturer of consumer goods but not large items such as commercial airliners, heavy equipment, trucks, cars etc. Furthermore a lot of the manufacturing jobs are final assembly of components that have been produced outside the contry. For example a Sony Bravia contains very little to no Chinese produced content, but since final assembly is cheaper in China, Sony assembles these products in China. When containers of this product come off the boat the customs' guys say its from China but the IP and key components are from outside. So is this really an import from China or Japan.

Ultimately,my point China still is at the low end of the manufacturing totem pole and continues to cut corners. I just had to disqualify two of my leading vendors because they supplied sub-standard control valve assemblies from a Chinese supplier. If these valves went into operation there is a good chance they would have failed and caused a major incident. We have a strict policy for sourcing components from China/India but why is it the Chinese cannot seem to grasp QA/QC.

My biggest problem with China is the blatent disregard for IP protection. My job is to build and commission Oil/Chemical refineries/facilities and we always have issues with Chinese projects about IP infringement and disregard for contracts. Unfortunately it is a catch-22, in the short-run we make money and gain access but we know in the long-run we will be competing with firms that have stolen or pirated technology. I just dealt with this on a recent project.

BTW-the one child policy is going to come back and bite China in the ass in the next generation. Furthermore, the diproportinate amount of boys to girls will lead to greater population loss.

[The Chemist]

For example, China is a large manufacturer of consumer goods but not large items such as commercial airliners, heavy equipment, trucks, cars etc.

Say what? China has an enormous automobile industry, and builds every kind of motor vehicle, from motorcycles and automobiles (both foreign and domestic brands) to heavy trucks and busses.

They also do build a large amount of their own heavy equipment, and they have started on a commercial airline industry of their own.

[muppet]

1. Guys, China is still set to become the world's biggest economy, even in the world recession, the bite on its manufacturing base etc. The economy has also been diversifying as of late, in many cities moving from manufacturing to services already, which has always been the long term goal. If (when) this happens, global manufacturing will move to South and SE Asia, who are already taking their cue.
The country is also changing from a rural based society to an urban one - 200 million have moved to the cities since 1987, another 350-400 million expected to join them in the greatest migration of humans in history. As manufacturing moves to services to provide for the massive new domestic market the middle class is expected to rise from 80 million in 2007 to 700 million by 2020. If the population stopped migrating to the cities this would be much more a sign of the demise of the Chinese market and growth, more than the loss of its manufacturing 'start-up' towns.
Also remember, although China may be short on oil, it is still with huge natural resources, the world's largest producer of food from fishing to vegetables, meat to wheat, beer to rice, all metals from aluminium to gold, iron to steel, minerals, coal, hydroelectricity, cement, ceramics, chemicals, medicines and pharmaceuticals, etc, all this on top of its dented manufacturing base, which will still remain on the top (though diminished) in electronics, software, hardware, clothing, toys, furniture, construction, and soon to come, auto (its currently the 3rd largest auto maker), and hi tech products (currently 3rd also). It has recently become the worlds largest internet, auto and telecoms market, and will soon be the largest tourism destination and market too, which happens to be the world's biggest industry. As of last year it became the world's largest patent applicant.

2. After 30 years of the one child policy, the population is still growing by 12-14 million a year (it only affects 36% of the population). It is expected to start declining the population by 2040, 60 years after its inception, and provided there has been and will be 0 immigration by then.

3. The Olympic site is scheduled to become an entertainment and shopping centre - in the interim its been run over by hawkers seeing a chance at alot of lost looking, slightly bored tourists before the builders move in:
(video here)

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/31/content_10741546.htm

[Jasonhouse]

I'm not talking about any of this social crap people are now trying to divert this thread with.

I'm talking directly to the people who are in abject denial that China has and is building WAAAY more highrises than the US is building, or ever will build.

People talk as if China has no need for office space or highrises residences, even though their dedication to urbanization runs circles around ours. They talk as if the astonishing building boom that is occurring in China isn't really happening, simply because they don't know about it. They talk as if China will suddenly collapse, because their own nation's economy is collapsing. They talk as if a nation over four times more populous than America, which is industrializing and urbanizing at rates comparable to what America itself saw a century ago, isn't really happening, and won't really grow as much as it obviously will.

All I can say is, you people are clueless to the point of comedy. Thanks for the laughs.

[nergie]

1. Guys, China is still set to become the world's biggest economy, even in the world recession, the bite on its manufacturing base etc. The economy has also been diversifying as of late, in many cities moving from manufacturing to services already, which has always been the long term goal. If (when) this happens, global manufacturing will move to South and SE Asia, who are already taking their cue.
The country is also changing from a rural based society to an urban one - 200 million have moved to the cities since 1987, another 350-400 million expected to join them in the greatest migration of humans in history. As manufacturing moves to services to provide for the massive new domestic market the middle class is expected to rise from 80 million in 2007 to 700 million by 2020. If the population stopped migrating to the cities this would be much more a sign of the demise of the Chinese market and growth, more than the loss of its manufacturing 'start-up' towns.
Also remember, although China may be short on oil, it is still with huge natural resources, the world's largest producer of food from fishing to

vegetables, meat to wheat, beer to rice, all metals from aluminium to gold, iron to steel, minerals, coal, hydroelectricity, cement, ceramics, chemicals, medicines and pharmaceuticals, etc, all this on top of its dented manufacturing base, which will still remain on the top (though diminished) in electronics, software, hardware, clothing, toys, furniture, construction, and soon to come, auto (its currently the 3rd largest auto maker), and hi tech products (currently 3rd also). It has recently become the worlds largest internet, auto and telecoms market, and will soon be the largest tourism destination and market too, which happens to be the world's biggest industry. As of last year it became the world's largest patent applicant.

2. After 30 years of the one child policy, the population is still growing by 12-14 million a year (it only affects 36% of the population). It is expected to start declining the population by 2040, 60 years after its inception, and provided there has been and will be 0 immigration by then.

3. The Olympic site is scheduled to become an entertainment and shopping centre - in the interim its been run over by hawkers seeing a chance at alot of lost looking, slightly bored tourists before the builders move in:
(video here)

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/31/content_10741546.htm

Again a lot to the hi-tech industry is not domestically developed nor are the components domestically produced. China no doubt is growing but a lot of what is develop has been pilfered and much of thes so-called patents are slight variations of products the domestic industry has infrigned upon.

Case in point the aircraft China has developed has a striking similarity to Embraer's E-70. No doubt with 1.X billion people China is going to grow as in develops an appetite but what is there to say about a country that requires its citzens to have papers to travel between states and cities?

I have lived and breathed the new China, and while what has been done in the last 20 years is impressive it comes with a cost. The country is facing a severe water shortage, most days my shirt collars turned black from the soot in the air. To paraphrase one of my Chinese colleagues "A country can build hundreds of skyscrapers and impressive dams and stadiums but this is not a country for the average citzen"


Just my opinion.

[The Chemist]

No doubt with 1.X billion people China is going to grow as in develops an appetite but what is there to say about a country that requires its citzens to have papers to travel between states and cities?

You need a resident permit to move to a new city, yes, and for good reason - if not, the cities would be swamped and unable to provide adequate services for the citizens. To travel from one city to another for business or pleasure, no, you don't need any papers.


I have lived and breathed the new China, and while what has been done in the last 20 years is impressive it comes with a cost. The country is facing a severe water shortage, most days my shirt collars turned black from the soot in the air. To paraphrase one of my Chinese colleagues "A country can build hundreds of skyscrapers and impressive dams and stadiums but this is not a country for the average citzen"


The government is trying to deal with all of these problems. The water shortage only affects part of the country, hence the construction of the massive water diversion project to deal with this issue. As for air pollution, yes, it's bad, but the government is trying to deal with it. It's pretty bad now, but new regulations should help things improve in the future. You have to remember that China is compressing the 250 year history of the industrialized west into 30 years, and with way more population as well. Pollution problems are to be expected, but the government does realize now that environmental problems pose a major danger to the Chinese economy, so they are working to deal with it.

[JManc]

so what's going on with the bird's nest? are they going to convert the existing structure into a shopping mall? and more importantly, will it have an aunt annie's pretzel joint and a payless?

[muppet]

I think the big empty spaces in the Olympic complex will be filled up by entertainment and cultural venues, along with a few malls. Hey we can always hope for a TKMaxx too...

[giallo]

Pudong is empty. The entire office boom in Pudong is a farce. Those buildings might as well be built on the moon.

You sure know how to add some sensationalism to this site, I'll give you that.

On a more serious note; I guess my bank isn't located in the HSBC building, the head office for the BC school district of China didn't just open up in the SWFC, my neighbor doesn't work in the Citi Tower and my good friend doesn't run his business out of the Bank of Shanghai building . And all those people you see walking around in these Pudong office buildings firsthand, Chemist-they're there just to fool you ala The Truman Show. Because, you know, Pudong is a farce.

Keep trying to convince people who live in China otherwise, Crawford. It's entertaining as hell.

[Jasonhouse]

I don't see what the big deal is with the stadium... This happens all of the time with Olympic venues. They go unused or underused. The problem with the Bird's Nest is that it's too awesome to suffer the same fate. (Anyone even remember the Olympic stadium the last time the games were in America? We tore the stadium down immediately after, and built a baseball stadium)

Hopefully the plans they have to reuse the parcel for an entertainment venue work out. I wonder what the floor plan for that looks like?

[JManc]

^ it's a absolute waste to build a multi-million dollar facility only for it to be useless in a matter of weeks.

[nito]

^ it's a absolute waste to build a multi-million dollar facility only for it to be useless in a matter of weeks.I think Olympic facilities have two options:
- Temporary/reduced facilties
- Taken over by a club

[JDRCRASH]

USC is obviously an exeption because it uses the stadium so many times for Football Games and other major events.

I think the huge population is the primary reason holding back China from break away development: there is simply not the resources in the mid-long term. After all, there is a reason why China is gaining an interest in China (much like Britain was 200 years ago).

This is what i've been trying to say for a while now. If China (and it's people) were as modern and free as the United States', it would take the whole planet's resources to sustain it.

[PhillyRising]

I don't see what the big deal is with the stadium... This happens all of the time with Olympic venues. They go unused or underused. The problem with the Bird's Nest is that it's too awesome to suffer the same fate. (Anyone even remember the Olympic stadium the last time the games were in America? We tore the stadium down immediately after, and built a baseball stadium)

Hopefully the plans they have to reuse the parcel for an entertainment venue work out. I wonder what the floor plan for that looks like?

Part of the Atlanta Olympic Stadium was temporary. The main part of Turner Field in Atlanta today is still the original structure. They tore down the part that is past the outfield wall and replaced it with a permenant structure that is better for a baseball stadium.

For as much flak Atlanta took for it's games, what they did was very practical.

Photo Courtesy of BBC. You can see the part of the stadium configured already for baseball and the temporary structure.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44222000/jpg/_44222953_atlanta416.jpg

Photo courtesy of Ballsparksofbaseball.com showing the part of the stadium that was rebuilt after the Olympics:

http://www.ballparksofbaseball.com/nl/turner907.jpg

Photoe Courtesy of Ballparksofbaseball.com...shows the columns from the temporary structure used in a park setting beyond the stadium. Never mind the sea of cars in the parking lot!

http://www.ballparksofbaseball.com/nl/turner900.jpg