PDA

You are viewing a trimmed-down version of the SkyscraperPage.com discussion forum.  For the full version follow the link below.

View Full Version : Decision 2010: Calgary Municipal Election



Pages : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 [19] 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Calgarian
Oct 8, 2010, 4:32 PM
Lol, I'm still not sure what Barb Higgins stands for, she talks about a lot of generalities but no specifics. A vote for Barb is a wasted vote.

Radley77
Oct 8, 2010, 6:10 PM
Lol, I'm still not sure what Barb Higgins stands for, she talks about a lot of generalities but no specifics. A vote for Barb is a wasted vote.

I don't know if Nenshi's idea to realign the north LRT along centre street is too costly of an idea. What is the economic basis for this as none of the candidates are an expert in LRT construction costs or revenue modelling? Barb Higgins supports the LRT route as proposed by Plan It. She is also prepared to champion projects like preserving the money set aside for a central library ($40 million), plus engaging the private sector, province, and federal government for additional funds. Her stance on the airport tunnel is also different than her peers, where she proposes a three way funding arrangement. This would address the issue of the cost-effectiveness of the airport tunnel project.

Some of these priorities are outlined in her policy book with more specificity:
http://barbhiggins.ca/assets/files/Barb-Higgins-Policy-Book.pdf

I think people need to be open to looking at all candidates including but not limited to Nenshi. I don't think any vote is "wasted".

DizzyEdge
Oct 8, 2010, 6:13 PM
I don't know if Nenshi's idea to realign the north LRT along centre street is too costly of an idea. What is the economic basis for this as none of the candidates are an expert in LRT construction costs or revenue modelling? Barb Higgins supports the LRT route as proposed by Plan It. She is also prepared to champion projects like preserving the money set aside for a central library ($40 million), plus engaging the private sector, province, and federal government for additional funds. Her stance on the airport tunnel is also different than her peers, where she proposes a three way funding arrangement. This would address the issue of the cost-effectiveness of the airport tunnel project.

Some of these priorities are outlined in her policy book with more specificity:
http://barbhiggins.ca/assets/files/Barb-Higgins-Policy-Book.pdf

I think people need to be open to looking at all candidates including Nenshi. I disagree that people should be calling other people's votes "wasted".


Would there be any case for the current NLRT route combined with a Centre St streetcar? or would that just end up being a more expensive version of the current BRT?

MalcolmTucker
Oct 8, 2010, 6:23 PM
I don't know if Nenshi's idea to realign the north LRT along centre street is too costly of an idea. What is the economic basis for this as none of the candidates are an expert in LRT construction costs or revenue modelling? Barb Higgins supports the LRT route as proposed by Plan It. She is also prepared to champion projects like preserving the money set aside for a central library ($40 million), plus engaging the private sector, province, and federal government for additional funds. Her stance on the airport tunnel is also different than her peers, where she proposes a three way funding arrangement. This would address the issue of the cost-effectiveness of the airport tunnel project.

Some of these priorities are outlined in her policy book with more specificity:
http://barbhiggins.ca/assets/files/Barb-Higgins-Policy-Book.pdf

I think people need to be open to looking at all candidates including but not limited to Nenshi. I don't think any vote is "wasted".

The project is so far off it doesn't really matter what anyone thinks in the matter at this point in time. There is no harm in doing a study to figure out what the cost differential would be (including of course the cost of using cpacity on the NE - W line) so council can make a good decision as to whether to start acquiring properties, placing development holds and what not.

As for the library, the $40 million set aside IS provincial funds. Federal funds, there are not enough to make a 1/3rd contribution to every project Calgary does because Calgary does a lot more than the Canadian average in capital expenditures per capita so securing federal funding for the library is just reordering our request to the feds and de-funding another project.

Asking for a three way arrangement to pay for new projects is bogus - we wouldn't have the West, Saddle Ridge, or Tuscany LRT extensions if we waited for 1/3rd arrangements. Heck, on those projects, they are funded basically 100% by the province. What is her policy person stuck in? 1999?

A 1/3rd contribution for the SE LRT would adsorb ALL of the current federal funding envelop for more than 6 years. Quite frankly, if we wait for the feds on these projects, they will never get built.

Bigtime
Oct 8, 2010, 6:51 PM
I just did the advanced vote, add a vote each to Nenshi and Pashak for the big tally on the 18th!

Wooster
Oct 8, 2010, 9:05 PM
CBC mayoral debate from a few days ago:

http://www.cbc.ca/calgary/features/calgaryvotes2010/debate.html

mooky
Oct 8, 2010, 9:05 PM
I know I'm asking a lot, but I just made a second donation and I challenge all Nenshi supporters to make a second donation to make the push to the finish line.

Whatever you can spare, 10, 20, 50 dollars, whatever, it all helps! Don't let Ric win! ;)

danofkent
Oct 8, 2010, 9:18 PM
It nice to finally see a poll for the wards. http://votecalgary.ca/_images/Aldermanic%20Poll%20Results%202010:10:07.pdf I can't believe how wide open Ward 4 is. If you live in that vote your vote is really going to matter. Get out there and vote.

Doing a bit of back of the envelope math. If the norm turn out of 10,000 to 15,000 votes for the ward means the leader has only 600-900 votes. Wow.

I'm suspicious of an opinion poll which forecasts a turnout of 84%. Only 33% voted last time and the last Federal and Provincial elections had province-wide turnouts of 52% and 40% respectively.

That figure, along with the high proportion of don't knows make me doubt the usefulness of the poll generally.

srperrycgy
Oct 8, 2010, 9:25 PM
I know I'm asking a lot, but I just made a second donation and I challenge all Nenshi supporters to make a second donation to make the push to the finish line.

Whatever you can spare, 10, 20, 50 dollars, whatever, it all helps! Don't let Ric win! ;)

Donation made. :D

MalcolmTucker
Oct 8, 2010, 9:32 PM
I'm suspicious of an opinion poll which forecasts a turnout of 84%. Only 33% voted last time and the last Federal and Provincial elections had province-wide turnouts of 52% and 40% respectively.

That figure, along with the high proportion of don't knows make me doubt the usefulness of the poll generally.
Yeah well, the poll still has validity - distribute the undecideds straight line and you still get the same results (order of candidates, amount of spread, etc). People always say they are going to vote - for municipal elections it is always a good idea to ask did you vote in the last muni election to at least generate a somewhat accurate sub sample, at least in Calgary with the very low turn out. All that is inside baseball, doesn't really matter to any public pollster really.

Wooster
Oct 8, 2010, 10:06 PM
I don't know if Nenshi's idea to realign the north LRT along centre street is too costly of an idea. What is the economic basis for this as none of the candidates are an expert in LRT construction costs or revenue modelling? Barb Higgins supports the LRT route as proposed by Plan It.

Nenshi just recognizes, just like many people on this forum, that it makes absolutely zero sense to put an LRT route where nobody lives. There's just too much to gain and way too much to lose by not at least re-examining this alignment. The 110,000 people that would be by-passed by the nose creek alignment deserve an LRT too. This is a piece of infrastructure that will be around for potentially centuries - it would be very, very shortsighted to just go with the cheapest route of least resistance.

Wooster
Oct 8, 2010, 10:09 PM
I know I'm asking a lot, but I just made a second donation and I challenge all Nenshi supporters to make a second donation to make the push to the finish line.

Whatever you can spare, 10, 20, 50 dollars, whatever, it all helps! Don't let Ric win! ;)

Agreed. I've worked tirelessly for this candidate. He does need the money for the final push - adverstising.

nick.flood
Oct 8, 2010, 10:29 PM
I know I'm asking a lot, but I just made a second donation and I challenge all Nenshi supporters to make a second donation to make the push to the finish line.

Whatever you can spare, 10, 20, 50 dollars, whatever, it all helps! Don't let Ric win! ;)

Second donation submitted as well.

Radley77
Oct 8, 2010, 10:53 PM
Don't get me wrong, I'd like a Centre Street route as well. It's just that it would be cost-prohibitive or not result in efficiency improvements as already reviewed by transportation engineers.

http://www.calgarytransit.com/pdf/north_central_calgary_transit_corridor_review.pdf

Why revisit this, when one could allocate more resources toward implementation of Plan It?

Doug_Cgy
Oct 8, 2010, 10:54 PM
Lol, I'm still not sure what Barb Higgins stands for, she talks about a lot of generalities but no specifics. A vote for Barb is a wasted vote.

I think the "bolded" is an unfair statement. Are you saying as Barb Higgin's supporter myself, I should just stay home? Regardless of who anyone supports, I think its important to encourage people to become involved and VOTE.

MalcolmTucker
Oct 8, 2010, 11:33 PM
Don't get me wrong, I'd like a Centre Street route as well. It's just that it would be cost-prohibitive or not result in efficiency improvements as already reviewed by transportation engineers.

http://www.calgarytransit.com/pdf/north_central_calgary_transit_corridor_review.pdf

Why revisit this, when one could allocate more resources toward implementation of Plan It?
It is important to remember that that report was done at a time when there was no money in the kity - at that point, 2006, the West LRT technical report recommended an above ground LRT instead of underground at Westbrook Mall on the west line to save money for example. Before Stelmach's MSI, before Harper doubled the New Deal for Cities and Communities Money. The "not result in efficiency improvements as already reviewed by transportation engineers" was in reference to an at grade system, and the efficiency was for service to the outer burbs, not the city as a whole.

When you read the report you linked to, there are no cost comparisons between an underground route and the Nose Creek Valley line. Heck, there are no cost estimates of the Nose Creek Valley line!

The report sees a problem, transit in communities north of 96th Ave for which the city left after room for exclusive ROW, and proposes the cheapest way to do it. It examines LRT service along Centre St and concludes out of hand that any option but underground (without saying it) would not work. It sees that with no pressure from communities north of 96th Ave, the bus network would continue to provide adequate service south of there.

We have no idea which option is best or not. Not only that, we don't know how much money we would save on rationalized bus services for each option, how much development they would spur, even ridership projections for the two!

Realistically it is around 15 years off before this line is even seriously considered for construction, likely even longer all things considered. Calgary has a long history of doing multiple studies on lines, and considering this was not even a full study, continueing to look at it is fine. For example, to my best recollection, there are West LRT route studies from 77, 83, 88, 2006, and 2008. There is more than enough time for another study before spending big money.

suburb
Oct 8, 2010, 11:36 PM
Fantastic! Naheed has his materials out in multiple languages now. He`s really following through on his promise to engage as many people as possible.

http://www.nenshi.ca/new/info-in-other-languages

You can compare his commitment to other candidates don`t even return calls when asked to participate in debates. Actually, there isn`t a comparison ;)

suburb
Oct 8, 2010, 11:44 PM
Fantastic! Naheed has his materials out in multiple languages now. He`s really following through on his promise to engage as many people as possible.

http://www.nenshi.ca/new/info-in-other-languages

You can compare his commitment to other candidates don`t even return calls when asked to participate in debates. Actually, there isn`t a comparison ;)

Here are some of the Facebook response to this:


*
James Young
While many of Calgary's mayoral candidates talk about getting new Calgarians involved in the voting process, Naheed Nenshi is doing something about it. Election material in 23 different languages.

A candidate who leads by example. A novel i...dea.See More
5 hours ago
*
Connie Jensen Fabulous!
5 hours ago
*
Kate Schutz a mayoral candidate that recognizes that the majority of Calgarians are actually now so called minorities?! Amazing!!! Thanks Naheed for a practical and realistic approach to our city.
5 hours ago
*
Dasha Morrison I dropped a Chinese handout to my next door neighbors. They have so little English that in a year of living here, we get only smiles and waves. I'm sure they'll appreciate info in their own tongue.
4 hours ago
*
Jessica M WEll states James young! thank you
4 hours ago
*
Pam Zylik This is amazing. I've never heard of this being offered before. I am so proud to support Naheed, and am simply astounded by the level of commitment of these volunteers! Great job, everyone! Thank you!
3 hours ago
*
Filippo Angelini Do any other significant candidates offer this?
3 hours ago
*
Toni Lee Topilka It's details like this that show me how thoughtfully you would run our city. :) bravo!
2 hours ago
*
Nick Flood This just shows yet again why Naheed is the best man to be our city's mayor.
about an hour ago

suburb
Oct 8, 2010, 11:48 PM
From Naheed`s events page ... four events over the next two days:

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Meet Naheed Nenshi in Bridgeland!
12:00 Noon – 2:00 PM
Tazza Deli and Grill
1105 – 1 Avenue NE
More details > (http://www.facebook.com/event.php?eid=123763674345338)

Mayoral Candidate Forum
Hosted by Just Vote Society
2:00 PM – 4:30 PM
Deer Run Community Centre
2223 – 146 Avenue SE

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Calgary Public Library All Candidates Mayoralty Forum
12:00 PM – 3:00 PM (followed by reception)
Calgary Public Library, John Dutton Theatre
616 Macleod Trail SE

African Caribbean Mayoral Forum
Starting at 6:00 PM
The Latin Caballero
3745 Memorial Drive SE (Beside Walmart on 36th st & Memorial)
More info > (http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?llr=4vmzg5dab&v=001B7Ca3ME3LkJnKv4Qzqb7z1Lc_n_J5tVHUdLQOtjMm0gW2FM56pnMpmIlz5QdORQLzubSaXefEC86CpFtGAQM2OeAbXm_F4p2voHDMH3brPVkLb2QUUP0gvhG3jRErXGw5DZenXQQBKo%3D)

Bassic Lab
Oct 9, 2010, 12:47 AM
Don't get me wrong, I'd like a Centre Street route as well. It's just that it would be cost-prohibitive or not result in efficiency improvements as already reviewed by transportation engineers.

http://www.calgarytransit.com/pdf/north_central_calgary_transit_corridor_review.pdf

Why revisit this, when one could allocate more resources toward implementation of Plan It?

Implementation of Plan It is not really a costly endeavour. It should save the city a significant amount. Pressing for denser greenfield development and greater redevelopment of the current built environment involves changing attitudes, not spending money. It does require spending money but when it comes to transportation it simply means reallocation of funds that were meant to service sprawl, like constructing new expressways, towards providing greater capacity within the current confines of the city. It is not Plan It or a Centre Street Subway. If anything, a successful implementation of Plan It only makes the Centre Street Subway a far more valuable, and perhaps necessary, piece of infrastructure. It could allow the population of the established north central communities to grow massively without creating a transportation nightmare.

If you're worried about efficiency improvements than the Centre Street Subway is even more important. As a more direct route, it cuts three kilometres off of the line's length. This should save about five minutes of travel time but it is hard to give a great estimate since there would be additional stations along Centre Street not needed for the Nose Creek alignment while also avoiding stops along Memorial. Speaking of the North East Line, what is the true opportunity cost of interlining the North LRT with the W-NE LRT? It would ensure that, for perpetuity, capacity to the North and Northeast would be half of what it otherwise could be. How does that kind of service limitation jive with Plan It? Capacity along 7th Ave is essentially maxed out at present. Four car trains will give us another 33% pretty soon here but after that we are done until we move the NW-S LRT under 8th Ave. So we should solve capacity issues along 7th by burying one line only to turn right around and give ourselves the exact same problem?

The North Line will not realistically begin construction for a long time. The SELRT has priority for transportation planners and politicians. Transportation planners are beginning to see the 8th Ave subway as a need on par with it. We have time to rethink the flaws of the Nose Creek alignment and decide whether the cost savings are worth it.

mooky
Oct 9, 2010, 1:01 AM
Wow, thanks to those that have acknowledged and also voted with your wallets along with me! Thank you.




Does anyone have daily ridership numbers for the 301 North BRT up Center Street? I don't even need to see offical numbers to know the numbers are well above even the numbers that use the SE BRT, and that's being championed as a precursor to an LRT line in the SE, so why in the north are we doing the exact opposite by encouraging people to use the 301 North BRT and then in the future we will bait and switch them over to the less efficient alignment that depending where along the route you are is at least 1 km to 4 km east of Center Street?

Center Street makes sense from a usage and population density sense, will the bureaucrats be able to sell it politically as the cost will be substantially higher then the on the board alternative? That is anyone's guess.

Bassic Lab
Oct 9, 2010, 1:21 AM
Wow, thanks to those that have acknowledged and also voted with your wallets along with me! Thank you.




Does anyone have daily ridership numbers for the 301 North BRT up Center Street? I don't even need to see offical numbers to know the numbers are well above even the numbers that use the SE BRT, and that's being championed as a precursor to an LRT line in the SE, so why in the north are we doing the exact opposite by encouraging people to use the 301 North BRT and then in the future we will bait and switch them over to the less efficient alignment that depending where along the route you are is at least 1 km to 4 km east of Center Street?

Center Street makes sense from a usage and population density sense, will the bureaucrats be able to sell it politically as the cost will be substantially higher then the on the board alternative? That is anyone's guess.

I do not have specific figures but there was a news story some time ago that listed Centre Street as the busiest bus corridor in the city with a ridership of around 30 000 people. Mind you this included both the 301 and the 3.

DizzyEdge
Oct 9, 2010, 2:03 AM
I do not have specific figures but there was a news story some time ago that listed Centre Street as the busiest bus corridor in the city with a ridership of around 30 000 people. Mind you this included both the 301 and the 3.

I wouldn't completely discount the #3 ridership, but since an LRT would have much more widely spaced stops, like the 301, I think it's ridership should be weighted pretty heavily.

MalcolmTucker
Oct 9, 2010, 2:05 AM
In 2006 the peak north calgary --> downtown flow was 3700 (1 hour flow) with a total north central corridor traffic of 41,500 a day, of which 8800 was cross town traffic according to the report posted above. At this period the report says the BRT frequency was every 9 minutes.

Bassic Lab
Oct 9, 2010, 2:20 AM
I wouldn't completely discount the #3 ridership, but since an LRT would have much more widely spaced stops, like the 301, I think it's ridership should be weighted pretty heavily.

Oh, I wasn't discounting the 3. In weighing the ridership potential for a Centre Street Subway I'd count both routes evenly. I was just making it clear that I wasn't answering the specific question of 301 ridership. If anything the LRT would increase corridor ridership substantially with superior service and the reorientation of busses towards feeding the train line.

Bigtime
Oct 9, 2010, 2:39 AM
I know I'm asking a lot, but I just made a second donation and I challenge all Nenshi supporters to make a second donation to make the push to the finish line.

Whatever you can spare, 10, 20, 50 dollars, whatever, it all helps! Don't let Ric win! ;)

The Bigtime's have just donated another amount to the Nenshi cause. Look to hear some radio ads very shortly! :tup:

Bigtime
Oct 9, 2010, 2:52 AM
Srperry, what have you been doing to Joe this evening on Twitter? ;)

Policy Wonk
Oct 9, 2010, 6:55 AM
How many of you have already voted?

srperrycgy
Oct 9, 2010, 10:20 AM
Srperry, what have you been doing to Joe this evening on Twitter? ;)

He responded to my RT'ing someone else's tweet and I responded:

@joeformayor Sorry Joe, you should have ran in Ward 6. #yycvote

@joeformayor Your attitude and arrogance is a turn off. People don't want to be shouted at. #yycvote

@joeformayor Your treatment of speakers in the PlanIt public hearing last year was a disgrace. #yycvote

From him:

@srperry it may be a good idea if you stopped following me. You seem very stressed. Maybe follow some more mellow

Kinda funny in that I DON'T follow him on Twitter :rolleyes:

@srperry if you had any courage, you would run in ward 6 and give something back

Yeah....umm... I don't live in Ward 6. I wouldn't run anyway. But I give back plenty in my own way, especially in regards to Transit with my website, discussions here and on Twitter.

He probably saw my username and wanted to start in. I've responded to some of his tweets over the last few months with some sarcasm about his chances and some of the inane tweets (Hi, I'm at XX place, doing XX for whatever).

I've tweeted with Burrows and Lord and they are pretty decent guys and their tweets were intelligent (for the most part), but like I said in the tweet to Joe, his arrogance is appalling. I have better opinions of these two guys now through some policy opinions and the whole #jonlord1st meme. I watched the PlanIt hearings like a lot of you guys did and his attitude and conduct with the speakers was incredibly bad. If he didn't hear his answer to his questions, you got cut off. This galvanized my opinion of him and that needed to be heard by the twitterati.

So I hate to say this, but I was a tad bit of a troll with him. :(

As an aside to this, we passed each other in SouthCentre twice on Wednesday night. He was heading to the can in the new Food Court both times. Almost ran me over on his way in the second time. Odd, because the closest can to centre court is on the bottom level in the Customer Service area. Gave me a slight sneer when he saw the Nenshi button on my hoodie.

Bigtime
Oct 9, 2010, 11:59 AM
How many of you have already voted?

I voted on Friday.

He responded to my RT'ing someone else's tweet and I responded:

@joeformayor Sorry Joe, you should have ran in Ward 6. #yycvote

@joeformayor Your attitude and arrogance is a turn off. People don't want to be shouted at. #yycvote

@joeformayor Your treatment of speakers in the PlanIt public hearing last year was a disgrace. #yycvote

From him:

@srperry it may be a good idea if you stopped following me. You seem very stressed. Maybe follow some more mellow

Kinda funny in that I DON'T follow him on Twitter :rolleyes:

@srperry if you had any courage, you would run in ward 6 and give something back

Yeah....umm... I don't live in Ward 6. I wouldn't run anyway. But I give back plenty in my own way, especially in regards to Transit with my website, discussions here and on Twitter.

He probably saw my username and wanted to start in. I've responded to some of his tweets over the last few months with some sarcasm about his chances and some of the inane tweets (Hi, I'm at XX place, doing XX for whatever).

I've tweeted with Burrows and Lord and they are pretty decent guys and their tweets were intelligent (for the most part), but like I said in the tweet to Joe, his arrogance is appalling. I have better opinions of these two guys now through some policy opinions and the whole #jonlord1st meme. I watched the PlanIt hearings like a lot of you guys did and his attitude and conduct with the speakers was incredibly bad. If he didn't hear his answer to his questions, you got cut off. This galvanized my opinion of him and that needed to be heard by the twitterati.

So I hate to say this, but I was a tad bit of a troll with him. :(

As an aside to this, we passed each other in SouthCentre twice on Wednesday night. He was heading to the can in the new Food Court both times. Almost ran me over on his way in the second time. Odd, because the closest can to centre court is on the bottom level in the Customer Service area. Gave me a slight sneer when he saw the Nenshi button on my hoodie.

Yup, that's Connelly, class act all the way... :rolleyes:

srperrycgy
Oct 9, 2010, 10:05 PM
Yup, that's Connelly, class act all the way... :rolleyes:

You know it. ;)

shogged
Oct 10, 2010, 12:02 AM
He responded to my RT'ing someone else's tweet and I responded:

@joeformayor Sorry Joe, you should have ran in Ward 6. #yycvote

@joeformayor Your attitude and arrogance is a turn off. People don't want to be shouted at. #yycvote

@joeformayor Your treatment of speakers in the PlanIt public hearing last year was a disgrace. #yycvote

From him:

@srperry it may be a good idea if you stopped following me. You seem very stressed. Maybe follow some more mellow

Kinda funny in that I DON'T follow him on Twitter :rolleyes:

@srperry if you had any courage, you would run in ward 6 and give something back

Yeah....umm... I don't live in Ward 6. I wouldn't run anyway. But I give back plenty in my own way, especially in regards to Transit with my website, discussions here and on Twitter.

He probably saw my username and wanted to start in. I've responded to some of his tweets over the last few months with some sarcasm about his chances and some of the inane tweets (Hi, I'm at XX place, doing XX for whatever).

I've tweeted with Burrows and Lord and they are pretty decent guys and their tweets were intelligent (for the most part), but like I said in the tweet to Joe, his arrogance is appalling. I have better opinions of these two guys now through some policy opinions and the whole #jonlord1st meme. I watched the PlanIt hearings like a lot of you guys did and his attitude and conduct with the speakers was incredibly bad. If he didn't hear his answer to his questions, you got cut off. This galvanized my opinion of him and that needed to be heard by the twitterati.

So I hate to say this, but I was a tad bit of a troll with him. :(

As an aside to this, we passed each other in SouthCentre twice on Wednesday night. He was heading to the can in the new Food Court both times. Almost ran me over on his way in the second time. Odd, because the closest can to centre court is on the bottom level in the Customer Service area. Gave me a slight sneer when he saw the Nenshi button on my hoodie.

haha, I had a twitter argument with him too. he told me to "push off and go put on my purple t-shirt"

I also called him out for being so arrogant.

Jokes on him though, he is polling less than 1% and is doing more harm than good by remaining as a no chance candidate

srperrycgy
Oct 10, 2010, 12:39 AM
I hope Joe doesn't stroke out at one of the forums. :rolleyes:

Ramsayfarian
Oct 10, 2010, 1:05 AM
I hope Joe doesn't stroke out at one of the forums. :rolleyes:

If he lives, that could draw a lot of McIver voters.

suburb
Oct 10, 2010, 4:28 AM
How many of you have already voted?

We voted on Thursday - and I know of others who have done the same. I think the best candidate has a higher proportion of the advance votes ;)

Radley77
Oct 10, 2010, 8:34 AM
Would there be any case for the current NLRT route combined with a Centre St streetcar? or would that just end up being a more expensive version of the current BRT?

I like the HOV lanes for Centre Street as in Plan It. I don't know if this could be further enhanced by signalization with priority for public transit on Centre Street?

As for a street car, I think one needs sufficient level of density above single family homes, and Centre street doesn't have a lot of density currently. Street cars I think work well for intraneighbourhood use, whereas LRT works well for interneighbourhood use. Maybe a better application for a streetcar would be to start in the Beltline?

One of the things I think really adds value to Plan It, is if there were more details around implementation timelines. It's kind of like the Bank of Canada is able to use language to target long term bond yields. If you use the right language, then it will also provide more reassurances for the rest of the development industry to get on board with projects that will help realize that strategic value. Perhaps a Plan It prioritization table identified by capitalization efficiencies, and then use that to create a Gantt chart and budget?

One of the things I like about the Nose Creek alignment is the possibility to assemble large land packages that would capitalize on the strategic value of TOD. LRT has worked well because of the parking available at LRT stations. A Centre street alignment would necessitate high density residential so that people are within walking distance of a subway station to be economic. For many communities this kind of change seems to move very slowly. One could expand the HOV lane network to allow this density to build up organically over time.

Riise
Oct 10, 2010, 12:41 PM
One of the things I like about the Nose Creek alignment is the possibility to assemble large land packages that would capitalize on the strategic value of TOD. LRT has worked well because of the parking available at LRT stations.

Although land assembly might be easier, what really matters is the ability for the arrival of rapid transit to push development over the viability threshold. Corridor-TODs may be unconventional in Calgary but they were taking place before master planned TODs. Also, how does its freeway-adjacent location affect the Nose Creek Valley alignment's viability?


One could expand the HOV lane network to allow this density to build up organically over time.

Considering rail bias, wouldn't a tram be better suited for this task?

SubwayRev
Oct 10, 2010, 1:55 PM
I like the HOV lanes for Centre Street as in Plan It. I don't know if this could be further enhanced by signalization with priority for public transit on Centre Street?

As for a street car, I think one needs sufficient level of density above single family homes, and Centre street doesn't have a lot of density currently. Street cars I think work well for intraneighbourhood use, whereas LRT works well for interneighbourhood use. Maybe a better application for a streetcar would be to start in the Beltline?

But the Nose Creek alignment does?

Radley77
Oct 10, 2010, 3:21 PM
Although land assembly might be easier, what really matters is the ability for the arrival of rapid transit to push development over the viability threshold. Corridor-TODs may be unconventional in Calgary but they were taking place before master planned TODs. Also, how does its freeway-adjacent location affect the Nose Creek Valley alignment's viability?




Considering rail bias, wouldn't a tram be better suited for this task?

Rapid transit pushes things over the viability threshold?

In 1989, population in Bridgeland was 4,529. In 1985, Bridgeland received LRT service. As of 2008, Bridgeland's population was 5,251.

Sunnyside is another example of a community that's population hasn't exactly exploded due to LRT service either. Both these places are also fairly walkable. I thjnk communities urban fabric is relatively static. Park'n'rides are a key component of LRT success. An underground route is going to cost several fold an at grade-route as well have no park'n'ride, so would also require more bus service or else would be entirely limited to areas within walking distance of a station.

As for rail bias, my preference is for the fastest route to get to my destination possible. I would probably only choose rail if it was 10% slower than another public transit alternative. Is rail bias going to necessitate spending many times the amount in capital costs and operational costs?

fusili
Oct 10, 2010, 3:23 PM
Made a second donation to the Nenshi campaign as well.


With regards to the Centre Street subway issue, some quick points:
- Centre street does not have much ROW capacity for a transit-only lane. Any streetcar will most likely be limited due to having to operate in mixed traffic
- The nose creek alignment will probably involve a new ROW in the DT. Using 7th avenue, IMO, is creating a new problem
- When comparing costs between the subway and nose creek, the Nose Creek alignment cost should include a new ROW in the DT, and the cost of the streetcar
- And to Radley's earlier comment about using the money instead on implementing Plan-It, I don't see how this is not an implementation of Plan-It.

fusili
Oct 10, 2010, 3:27 PM
Is rail bias going to necessitate spending many times the amount in capital costs and operational costs?

Rail has lower operating costs. Costs per passenger are much less than buses due to fuel efficiency and passengers per operator. Maintenance is lower as well, as lifespan of vehicles is much longer than buses. The disadvantage rail has compared to buses is capital cost. And before anyone goes and mentions flexibility as an advantage buses have, I want to say that flexibility is a disadvantage, not an advantage. The permanence of rail is a good thing for a transit system.

MalcolmTucker
Oct 10, 2010, 5:14 PM
Even on the operational side, as streetcars when your capacity needs gets high rail can be less effective than buses. The TTC did a study on replacing its streetcar fleet with buses, and the operational costs for those particular routes dropped by half. Now that might have more to do with the awful way the TTC runs its stretcars, but the rail advantage should not be taken as a given.

In any case, this discussion should move over to the Transit Thread (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=178402&page=61).

suburb
Oct 10, 2010, 7:34 PM
Offer to view open house & have a civic election discussion today right beside the Harvest Hills advanced voting station. Quite ingenious if I do say so myself :)

KIJIJI ADD (http://calgary.kijiji.ca/c-housing-housing-for-sale-OPEN-HOUSE-2-4-TODAY-Price-slashed-on-Harvest-Hills-Gem-W0QQAdIdZ235243688)

Riise
Oct 10, 2010, 9:34 PM
In any case, this discussion should move over to the Transit Thread (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=178402&page=61).

Which is where my latest response can be found.

suburb
Oct 10, 2010, 9:36 PM
Calgary candidate reaches out to new voters
REF (http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/2010/10/10/cgy-election-translate-naheed-nenshi.html)
A Calgary mayoral candidate is appealing to voters who have trouble understanding the English language.

Naheed Nenshi has translated his online brochures into ten different languages, translated his platform video and recruited volunteer interpreters who speak 23 different languages, including Chinese and Arabic.

"They're answering questions, they're making sure that folks know where to vote [and] when to vote," Nenshi said.

"If they have question about my policy, these interpreters will speak to them one-on-one and help them understand the policy, which is great because lots of folks phone your office and ask stuff and sometimes, if the answers are technical or complex, it's difficult for them to understand. It's great to have these volunteers to help."

Nenshi, whose background is in business, said he's hoping to get more people interested in municipal politics.

"We're really trying to reach out to people, but it's clear from our voter turnout levels that a lot of Calgarians feel alienated from the process," he said.

"We're doing everything we can to bring them in. You know, when only one in three Calgarians votes, it's clear that we're not doing enough to make people feel involved."

Municipal elections will be held across the province on Oct. 18.

Radley77
Oct 10, 2010, 9:59 PM
Apologies on the overtime, final post on this issue.

Rail has lower operating costs. Costs per passenger are much less than buses due to fuel efficiency and passengers per operator. Maintenance is lower as well, as lifespan of vehicles is much longer than buses. The disadvantage rail has compared to buses is capital cost. And before anyone goes and mentions flexibility as an advantage buses have, I want to say that flexibility is a disadvantage, not an advantage. The permanence of rail is a good thing for a transit system.

Rail has lower operational costs per passenger only when there is a high ridership volumes. The following report has a comparison between LRT and BRT for costs per revenue hour as well as passengers per hour. I am not sure what the volume "break-even" point would be for an LRT system, but I would assume that the transportation engineering experts that put the Plan It together would be most qualified to understand the various options. I would think a below grade system would have even higher operational costs than at grade LRT due to extra lighting needs, HVAC system, and water pumping system for the tunnel, plus extra maintenance.

http://www.calgarytransit.com/pdf/brt_report.pdf

Without things like Park'N'Ride and larger land packages for walkable communities, then it would be hard to attract that level of ridership. A Centre Street alignment would have to rely to a huge extent on a feeder network.

Anyways, I know I don't know the best answer to this... but I would hope that Calgary transportation engineers which I think have built an excellent LRT system and were a part of Plan It would be the most appropriate to evaluate this various decisions. I would hope that one of the other values of Plan It is that it allows cumulative efforts and understandings to have a plan and hasten people's learning curve. Things shouldn't need continual reevaluation from the bottom-up. I am worried any project that becomes a political pet a la monorail and is not justified by sound planning or a regurgitation of research without adding value; large studies are not required if the answer is fairly obvious...

MalcolmTucker
Oct 10, 2010, 10:24 PM
^ Remember that it wasn't Plan-It's job to choose which corridors were best for LRT. They were guided by past council decisions and could not change things that were already in place without direction. That is why the airport tunnel was in Plan-It until council decided they couldn't square that circle. That any LRT, streetcar, bus network, road work is or is not in Plan-It, does not indicate that there was any backing or even studies of the individual parts - note the Sandy Beach Bus Way that was in one version for example.

Plan-It is only a visioning document, a beginning, not an end. Realistically it only has force above an exercise like 'Imagine Calgary' in that it helps shape bureaucrats actions, and helps Alderman stand up and ask when a proposal comes 'does this comply with the principles set out in Plan It'? so that media can write a simple story when a project was approved or not. It is surprising how much 'this does not fit with the vision put forward in Imagine Calgary' was used to help justify blocking projects, and the vice versa for pushing things forward.

suburb
Oct 11, 2010, 12:44 AM
Thought this was interesting. McIver shooting out a blurt without having thought it through, Nenshi says change is needed but it requires a more thoughtful analysis (while highlighting McIver's ineffectiveness with a real example), and surprise surprise - Barb has no comment.

http://www.calgarysun.com/news/alberta/2010/10/10/15648561.html

Robert in Calgary
Oct 11, 2010, 2:37 AM
Don't get me wrong, I'd like a Centre Street route as well. It's just that it would be cost-prohibitive or not result in efficiency improvements as already reviewed by transportation engineers.

http://www.calgarytransit.com/pdf/north_central_calgary_transit_corridor_review.pdf

Why revisit this, when one could allocate more resources toward implementation of Plan It?

The engineers are wrong. They don't want Centre Street LRT and made sure the report reflected that bias. LRT in the Nose Creek Valley is asinine.

I have had face to face conversations with the planners admitting they were afraid of "community outrage" over picking the common sense route.

We'll buy properties for Glenmore/Elbow, for West LRT, we'll spend decades buying properties for 16th Avenue. We'll put houses right next to Deerfoot Trail....

If the city had spent 2 million dollars a year for the last 20-25 years, we would have the route ready and waiting to go.

Around...8 or 10 years ago I suggested running the early sections of the route in an open trench on a 1st Street NE alignment. You would have thought I was suggesting a manned mission to Mars!

Now what do I see being used on the West LRT route? The exact same concept I suggested.

I produced my own report back in 2006 giving a modified route.

Here's a slight variation on it. We need a Centre Street LRT route, and we're going to get one.

http://beta.mapmyrun.com/routes/view/24138560/

fusili
Oct 11, 2010, 2:55 AM
Here's a slight variation on it. We need a Centre Street LRT route, and we're going to get one.

http://beta.mapmyrun.com/routes/view/24138560/

Replied in transit thread.

suburb
Oct 11, 2010, 11:41 PM
Great news! For those still not decided, there is now a fantastic tool available. A DVD with full coverage of three of the debates + additional tools. You can read more about it HERE (http://www.nenshi.ca/new/2010/460).

G-Unit
Oct 11, 2010, 11:49 PM
Hey, I've been reading this site for a long time, and once in a while something has almost made me sign up but until now I couldn't be bothered to actually do it.

I just wanted to say that I am a conservative, very conservative in fact. I was active in Conservative youth groups back east, but haven't picked a side in the Wildrose/PC split here, although I really like Danielle Smith. I still defend Bush when I think he's getting treated unfairly (but not all the time cause he wasn't great either, and wasn't particularly conservative in a lot of ways for that matter).

Anyway, I am saying all this because I am voting for Nenshi, as are several other conservative minded people I know. It's because I think that government should do as little as possible, but the things it must do (especially transportation and policing at the municipal level) should be done as efficiently and as well as possible.

Nenshi is the only one who has any sort of plan that seems to make sense. I like that he asked questions about how the police budget is spent. And from a conservative who's thought about it: it's not 'social engineering' to focus on transit if it is the most efficient way to move people, it would be social engineering to build inefficient car based infrastructure.

suburb
Oct 12, 2010, 12:09 AM
^^ G-Unit - Hello and thanks for joining the conversation.

Going with Nenshi is about implementing the best solutions and I think that can appeal to a spectrum of people - as long as they are thoughtful and semi-education about the system and municipal politics.

Unfortunately, many people are not educated on many of these things. According to GlobalTV's recent poll (ref (http://www.globaltvcalgary.com/Higgins+pulls+slight+lead+over+McIver/3654251/story.html)):

The poll also noted that Higgins has a substantial lead among Calgarians with a high school education or less

Irrespective, it is coming down to the wire and for Nenshi will be about getting the voters out.

Innersoul1
Oct 12, 2010, 12:42 AM
Barb Higgins the new leader in the polls? A two horse race!?

http://calgary.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20101011/CGY_higgins_lead_101011/20101011/?hub=CalgaryHome

Robert in Calgary
Oct 12, 2010, 1:14 AM
A two horse race!?


No, this poll's methods will overstate support for Higgins and McIver while understating support Nenshi.

Nenshi is still on track to win.

Innersoul1
Oct 12, 2010, 1:26 AM
Nenshi is still on track to win.

Hey, I have been in the US for the last little while and have tried to follow the race as much as possible. But I miss a lot. Why is Nenshi on track to win?

Robert in Calgary
Oct 12, 2010, 1:45 AM
Momentum!

He's the only who really has any.

The only person I see and hear people excited about is Nenshi.

I hear plenty of people saying they don't want Higgins or McIver.

..and on FB.....lets see, Nenshi has added 1,127 folks while Higgins has added 80.

I've been to four Mayoral Forums, three in the last week. Higgins has been at none. And as I understand it, she hasn't even been to a city council meeting in at least nine years. :(

Nenshi is impressing people.

MalcolmTucker
Oct 12, 2010, 2:08 AM
It will be an interesting week, my impression is Ric has a lot left in the bank, or in reserved time on both radio and tv to seal the deal. Ric now that he is behind might endorse a televised top 3 debate as well, thinking Higgins won't perform well, plus he isn't in the lead any more so he has less to lose.

Higgins, I expect she will be very visible, but only on her own terms in the next week. Solidify the base, get their volunteer force motivated and in place for e-day.

Nenshi will keep doing more of the same, just with more radio ads.

3 wild cards in the week ahead I foresee: Will Hawkesworth actually file a lawsuit? (and is he doing it as a favour for future considerations from a mayoral candidate)
Will the media put the pieces together on the Eau Claire deal and blow the lid off the issue, and lay the blame at Ric's feet?
and
Will 2 of the 3 want a debate and force the third into it?

LFRENCH
Oct 12, 2010, 2:22 AM
Momentum!

He's the only who really has any.

The only person I see and hear people excited about is Nenshi.

I hear plenty of people saying they don't want Higgins or McIver.

..and on FB.....lets see, Nenshi has added 1,127 folks while Higgins has added 80.

I've been to four Mayoral Forums, three in the last week. Higgins has been at none. And as I understand it, she hasn't even been to a city council meeting in at least nine years. :(

Nenshi is impressing people.

The person they interviewed on the news, some MRU professor mentioned that nenshi support is underestimated as a large majority of his support is from the youth vote. This youth vote doesn't utilize lan lines and the poll never called cellular phones. Interesting point, but who knows if this is the case

devonb
Oct 12, 2010, 2:37 AM
That latest poll put Nenshi at 21%

LFRENCH
Oct 12, 2010, 2:58 AM
That latest poll put Nenshi at 21%

Yeah there were saying his support could really be much closer to that of the other too if you were able to account for support by individuals who do not have a stationary phone. That is something I never even thought of untill he mentioned it

DizzyEdge
Oct 12, 2010, 3:11 AM
The person they interviewed on the news, some MRU professor mentioned that nenshi support is underestimated as a large majority of his support is from the youth vote. This youth vote doesn't utilize lan lines and the poll never called cellular phones. Interesting point, but who knows if this is the case

Is there anyone on here really in the know about how these phone polls work? I've heard the same thing, that they are randomly picked from a phone list, but have also heard that is incorrect and they call randomly generated numbers, even though many might not be valid phone numbers.

Radley77
Oct 12, 2010, 3:11 AM
A bit more detailed poll results available here:

http://www.globaltvcalgary.com/documents/OCT11PollPT2.pdf

DizzyEdge
Oct 12, 2010, 3:34 AM
One interesting point:

"The gap between Higgins (36%) and McIver (32%) widens to four-points among those who are “absolutely certain” to vote on Election Day, while Nenshi (25%) closes the gap to both frontrunners."

freeweed
Oct 12, 2010, 3:36 AM
The person they interviewed on the news, some MRU professor mentioned that nenshi support is underestimated as a large majority of his support is from the youth vote. This youth vote doesn't utilize lan lines and the poll never called cellular phones. Interesting point, but who knows if this is the case

Youth are also just about always the lowest turnout, proportionally. It's great that Nenshi has the ear of young Calgarians, but if so few vote, it won't mean squat.

I'm starting to get a bit worried, personally. I've heard more than one Nenshi supporter say words to this effect:

"If polls show Nenshi can't win, I'm voting McIver so that Higgins doesn't win"

Fuck strategic voting. It's what's broken the US "democracy", and it's going to ruin this election if enough people think that way. Nenshi could easily win if polls are in fact out of touch, but he stands no chance if people start voting for the lesser of 2 evils.

You know the saying "if you don't vote, you can't complain"? I think we need to start another: "if you don't vote for your preferred candidate, you can't complain".

Ramsayfarian
Oct 12, 2010, 3:41 AM
I wonder how many times Nenshi was discussed over turkey dinner this weekend?

bob1954
Oct 12, 2010, 3:48 AM
The further Dr. No drops in these polls, the better it helps Nenshi more than Higgins!

Ferreth
Oct 12, 2010, 3:51 AM
Youth are also just about always the lowest turnout, proportionally. It's great that Nenshi has the ear of young Calgarians, but if so few vote, it won't mean squat.

I'm starting to get a bit worried, personally. I've heard more than one Nenshi supporter say words to this effect:

"If polls show Nenshi can't win, I'm voting McIver so that Higgins doesn't win"

Fuck strategic voting. It's what's broken the US "democracy", and it's going to ruin this election if enough people think that way. Nenshi could easily win if polls are in fact out of touch, but he stands no chance if people start voting for the lesser of 2 evils.

You know the saying "if you don't vote, you can't complain"? I think we need to start another: "if you don't vote for your preferred candidate, you can't complain".

Strategic voting almost cost us this country - remember the Quebec referendum.

As far as I'm concerned, based on statistics and the inherent flaws in the polling process, I conclude that we are in a dead heat between three candidates at this moment in time, as far as we can tell.

The next week will be most interesting indeed.

freeweed
Oct 12, 2010, 4:00 AM
As far as I'm concerned, based on statistics and the inherent flaws in the polling process, I conclude that we are in a dead heat between three candidates at this moment in time, as far as we can tell.

Obviously I have nothing but anecdotes, but I have to agree. Well, except that I've only heard of a single person who plans on voting for Higgins (seriously, who IS her demographic anyway??). If anything, I know more people voting for Nenshi which is the opposite of what I'd have expected 2 months ago. I'm no longer in the "youth" demographic like a lot of y'all are, and most of the people I work with are Boomers. Long time Calgarian conservative Boomers, at that. People who I figured would vote for Dr. No in a heartbeat. Yet most of them are supporting Nenshi.

I figured this election was a lock for McIver, with Higgins providing some sideshow. I guess Calgarians really aren't that impressed with him, considering he can barely compete against someone with a) no experience and b) no platform. In a way, I wonder if her presence is what might hand Nenshi the election?

I can't remember the last time a civic election actually held my interest like this. I'm actually planning on watching the returns on TV Monday night (do they do that here?).

floobie
Oct 12, 2010, 4:13 AM
Fuck strategic voting. It's what's broken the US "democracy", and it's going to ruin this election if enough people think that way. Nenshi could easily win if polls are in fact out of touch, but he stands no chance if people start voting for the lesser of 2 evils.

You know the saying "if you don't vote, you can't complain"? I think we need to start another: "if you don't vote for your preferred candidate, you can't complain".

I don't want to derail this thread, but I couldn't agree more with this. I'm extremely sick of the whole "if you didn't vote, you can't complain" attitude. I'll vote if I legitimately like a candidate (like Nenshi, in this case). If there are no candidates I like, I won't vote at all.

I have my principles. I refuse to support someone I think is a disgusting weasel. And I certainly won't vote for a disgusting weasel just to keep an even more disgusting weasel from winning. Playing all those reality TV show-esque voting games just undermines the whole point of an election, as far as I'm concerned. Voting for who you truly believe in holds politicians to a higher standard. Voting for someone just because they're more likely to win and you don't want another guy to win pretty much ensures that you'll have elected another mediocre, run of the mill politician who won't change a damn thing. In my mind, by voting for someone I don't like, I'm giving them the go ahead to piss all over me. I'd rather not vote at all.

Robert in Calgary
Oct 12, 2010, 4:15 AM
Obviously I have nothing but anecdotes, but I have to agree. Well, except that I've only heard of a single person who plans on voting for Higgins (seriously, who IS her demographic anyway??). If anything, I know more people voting for Nenshi which is the opposite of what I'd have expected 2 months ago. I'm no longer in the "youth" demographic like a lot of y'all are.......


I agree as well. Where are all these Higgins supporters. The only time I hear Higgins mentioned, it's not a supportive comment.

Nenshi has now added 1,165 folks on FB in the time barb has added 83.

I hope this does translate to the voting booth.:yes:

suburb
Oct 12, 2010, 4:15 AM
retracted - point was already made by someone else above.

mersar
Oct 12, 2010, 4:42 AM
Obviously I have nothing but anecdotes, but I have to agree. Well, except that I've only heard of a single person who plans on voting for Higgins (seriously, who IS her demographic anyway??).

Someone mentioned on twitter (so take it with a grain of salt) that one of the polls (that I haven't yet looked at in detail) put Higgins strongest support in the educational demographic of "high school degree or less". If its true it wouldn't shock me either, as in that group she would be the most recognizable face of the top three.

Innersoul1
Oct 12, 2010, 5:00 AM
Is there going to be a televised debate?

Innersoul1
Oct 12, 2010, 5:08 AM
Someone mentioned on twitter (so take it with a grain of salt) that one of the polls (that I haven't yet looked at in detail) put Higgins strongest support in the educational demographic of "high school degree or less". If its true it wouldn't shock me either, as in that group she would be the most recognizable face of the top three.

That would be the Ipsos Reid Poll. Follow the link above. It confirms the fact. Also that Mciver has the highest amount of his support from voters in the SE

Koolfire
Oct 12, 2010, 5:10 AM
Will Hawkesworth actually file a lawsuit? (and is he doing it as a favour for future considerations from a mayoral candidate)


File a lawsuit for what? I haven't heard this yet.

freeweed
Oct 12, 2010, 5:33 AM
Someone mentioned on twitter (so take it with a grain of salt) that one of the polls (that I haven't yet looked at in detail) put Higgins strongest support in the educational demographic of "high school degree or less". If its true it wouldn't shock me either, as in that group she would be the most recognizable face of the top three.

Well that explains me then. After spending 9 years in University over 2 periods of my life, and now working with people where a degree is pretty much a requirement for the past 7 years, I just don't know anyone in that demographic anymore. I wonder if that makes me a genuine snob. :(

Oddly enough, I recognize Nenshi from Television far more than Higgins. Mostly because I LOATHE CTV news - it's like they're trying to out-geriatric CBC with their newscasts. Global used to have Nenshi on at least once a week for various commentary; he's been on my radar for years as a result.

Surrealplaces
Oct 12, 2010, 5:35 AM
If Nenshi doesn't win this election what do you think the chances are that he would try for an alderman position next time around?

The mayor is an important position, but keep in mind that when it comes to council votes, the mayor is only one vote, same as the alderman. If he were on council as an Alderman he would still have alot of influence.

fusili
Oct 12, 2010, 7:13 AM
Whatever happens, I am going to be impressed with how well Nenshi did. I think many thought he would go nowhere in this campaign, and now he is a serious contender and can definitely win this thing. It gives me at least some hope for this city.

MalcolmTucker
Oct 12, 2010, 11:24 AM
Is there anyone on here really in the know about how these phone polls work? I've heard the same thing, that they are randomly picked from a phone list, but have also heard that is incorrect and they call randomly generated numbers, even though many might not be valid phone numbers.

They wouldn't want to call businesses, they pull from a list. Until the government passes a law to allow pollsters to be billed for the calls to cell phones, there aren't going to be calls to cell phones (beyond robo polls that go to everyone). Add to that skype, other less formal than Shaw Phone VoiP and you start to have a selection bias. Fortunately young people have been voting at such low rates that it hasn't changed much.

PoscStudent
Oct 12, 2010, 12:30 PM
This link shows more of a breakdown in the poll, by sex, education and income.

In the category of completed univeristy it shows only a 5 point difference between the 3 candidates. I always wonder when I see polls if education makes a difference with the likliness of someone voting. If university educated people are more likely to vote then this could be very interesting and it could take a while before the mayor is officially named.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=10036

MalcolmTucker
Oct 12, 2010, 1:36 PM
With the amount of advanced voting, it will be a late late night.

PoscStudent
Oct 12, 2010, 1:40 PM
With the amount of advanced voting, it will be a late late night.

If not a couple of days, with several hundred thousand people voting and such a close race a thousand votes makes a big difference. I'd say expect a judicial recount.

Wooster
Oct 12, 2010, 1:44 PM
Markusoff had an interesting post about how Mandel won Edmonton in 2004 and the polls leading up to election day:

http://communities.canada.com/calgaryherald/blogs/hallmonitor/archive/2010/10/11/three-to-one-pulling-a-mandel.aspx

So the polls came out thusly:

Sept 23: Noce 24, Smith 22, Mandel 8, undy 44.5
Oct 9: Smith 29, Noce 30, Mandel 20, undy ??
Oct 15 (mandel camp poll): Noce 24, Smith 19, Mandel 17, undy 29
Oct 15 (smith poll): Smith 24, Noce 19, Mandel 15, undy 37
Results, Oct 18: Mandel 41, Smith 33, Noce 25

Bigtime
Oct 12, 2010, 2:01 PM
Edit: Deleting this post because it has made everyone sad this morning.

CorporateWhore
Oct 12, 2010, 2:09 PM
So Nenshi is going to win, but nobody will see it till it's too late?

Bigtime
Oct 12, 2010, 2:15 PM
So Nenshi is going to win, but nobody will see it till it's too late?

No no! This time the goal light will go off!

Great, now I'm getting depressed remembering that night. That was going to be my story to tell children and grandchildren in the future, how I was there as the Saddledome exploded into cheers of victory...

Edit: Don't you go over to Calpuck and crush my identical post over there! If anything, my comparing of Nenshi to the grinding '04 Flames should get some more votes headed his way! ;)

Radley77
Oct 12, 2010, 2:19 PM
Another poll out by IVRnet conducted on October 9th, of those that responded that they were very likely or somewhat likely to vote:

McIver: 24.1%
Nenshi: 17.3%
Higgins: 33.8%

http://www.metronews.ca/calgary/local/article/659956--higgins-leaps-into-lead-poll

Radley77
Oct 12, 2010, 2:42 PM
If Nenshi doesn't win this election what do you think the chances are that he would try for an alderman position next time around?

The mayor is an important position, but keep in mind that when it comes to council votes, the mayor is only one vote, same as the alderman. If he were on council as an Alderman he would still have alot of influence.

I have always thought that Nenshi would be virtually guaranteed a seat as alderman for this civic election. He is good at troubleshooting, a strong desire to improve the quality of life in Calgary, and able to champion issues of importance. That he is running such a strong campaign against well established people like Kent Hehr, Bob Hawkesworth, Craig Burrows et al points to that there is a lot of potential for his political future.

The mayor's seat would be hard fought for by all of the candidates. That Nenshi's base is with younger voters and a good track record for retention is a good thing as that demographic ages his grassroots base should continue to build.

MalcolmTucker
Oct 12, 2010, 2:45 PM
Another poll out by IVRnet conducted on October 9th, of those that responded that they were very likely or somewhat likely to vote:

McIver: 24.1%
Nenshi: 17.3%
Higgins: 33.8%

http://www.metronews.ca/calgary/local/article/659956--higgins-leaps-into-lead-poll

While a Saturday poll would likely cause some selection bias due to people being away from their houses at different rates according to their age and income, IVRnets polls for us in the last election were within a couple points. Also, by its nature this would be a 'prompted' poll. Also, the sample would not be demographically corrected like the Ipsos one would have been.

CorporateWhore
Oct 12, 2010, 2:48 PM
Great, now I'm getting depressed remembering that night.

That's why you never ever bring up the 2004 playoffs.

As fun as it is to reminisce about the good moments, it inevitably leads to that utterly soul crushing realization that that spontaneous and beautiful rise of a down-and-out hockey club looking to redeem itself with ultimate glory in unison with it's joyous (and topless!) citizens, was tragically snatched away in such a bitter fashion. Those were once-in-a-lifetime circumstances, and they will never be re-created or experienced in the same light again. We all lost our innocence that year.

And you had to bring it up!

Bigtime
Oct 12, 2010, 2:52 PM
Wow, you managed to put into words that totally soul crushing feeling.

Tuesday is the new Monday this week. :(

CorporateWhore
Oct 12, 2010, 2:56 PM
Just walk away and promise to never think about it ever again. Look to the future my friend.

Then again, thinking about the current state of the Flames isn't soul-lifting either, ha.

freeweed
Oct 12, 2010, 3:26 PM
The lesson from 2004 is this: underdogs always let you down.

Here's hoping Nenshi has transitioned from "underdog" status. :(

Bigtime
Oct 12, 2010, 3:30 PM
You know what, forget I even brought up 2004. I'm deleting that post!

Go Nenshi!

freeweed
Oct 12, 2010, 4:06 PM
Wow, xenophobia is alive and well in Calgary. Just had another person tell me that there's no way they'd vote for Nenshi, because "you just can't trust those Muslim/brown/whatever people". I didn't catch the exact wording as this rapidly devolved into a 1950s-worthy racist rant and I had to walk away before I punched a cow-orker.

DizzyEdge
Oct 12, 2010, 4:24 PM
Bob Hawkesworth says he 'can't win the mayor's race'



http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Hawkesworth+says+mayor+race/3658422/story.html

Love this quote:


"If he endorses, Higgins would appear to be his pick. Hawkesworth said he entered the race because he disliked McIver's vision, and he's campaigned bitterly against Nenshi.

As for Higgins' priorities, "I have questions. I'm not sure absolutely what those (priorities) are," Hawkesworth said"

I suspect those two points are true for most Calgarians who plan to vote for her.

Bigtime
Oct 12, 2010, 4:24 PM
Wow, xenophobia is alive and well in Calgary. Just had another person tell me that there's no way they'd vote for Nenshi, because "you just can't trust those Muslim/brown/whatever people". I didn't catch the exact wording as this rapidly devolved into a 1950s-worthy racist rant and I had to walk away before I punched a cow-orker.

My wife had the same conversation with one of our neighbours, she openly admitted to not voting for him based on his colour and that he could be a "sleeper cell".

I really hope these people are the 0.1% minority in our city.

nick.flood
Oct 12, 2010, 4:26 PM
Hawkesworth concedes!! :banana: ....... kind of.

Bob Hawkesworth says he 'can't win the mayor's race'

By Jason Markusoff, Calgary Herald October 12, 2010 10:05 AM

CALGARY - Bob Hawkesworth has conceded that he can't win the mayor's race, but is unsure whether he'll endorse anyone or even stop campaigning.

"Short of a miracle -- and apparently these happen -- I'm not going to be Calgary's next mayor," he said in an interview Tuesday morning.

Polls have repeatedly shown him unable to top four- or three-per-cent support, and far back from Naheed Nenshi, Ric McIver and new frontrunner Barb Higgins.

He said he appreciates his "rock-solid base" but it's "far from a winning majority, so I have to be frank about it and I will."

With six days to the civic election, the Ward 4 veteran said he'll either keep campaigning to stress his priorities or back a candidate his views line up with.

If he endorses, Higgins would appear to be his pick. Hawkesworth said he entered the race because he disliked McIver's vision, and he's campaigned bitterly against Nenshi.

...

Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Hawkesworth+says+mayor+race/3658422/story.html#ixzz12A8ZZXt0

Calgary_Guy
Oct 12, 2010, 5:03 PM
So lets say McIver did in fact win the election.... I'm willing to bet the Airport tunnel is not built, and the SE LRT gets the go ahead. Does anyone else think this could in fact be the case as well? I can only imagine the feeling of clossing Barlow Trail to the airport north of McKnight Blvd. will anger a lot of people in the city. :rolleyes: