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View Full Version : (Alberta) Oilsands output could grow 50% by 2025: forecast



ue
Jun 7, 2009, 10:44 PM
Oilsands output could grow 50% by 2025: forecast


By Dave Cooper, Edmonton JournalJune 6, 2009Comments (2)

Alberta's oilsands could push Canada's oil production to more than 4.2 million barrels a day by 2025, compared with 2.7 million bpd currently, if the investment climate improves over time, said the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers in a forecast released Friday.

The production and market outlook paints two scenarios.

Under a conservative approach, which includes projects operating or under construction, Canadian crude oil output would rise to just 2.8 million bpd by 2025, with the oilsands replacing declining conventional production.

CAPP sees oilsands output increasing to two million bpd under its conservative approach, compared with 3.3 million bpd under its growth scenario, which assumes an improving economic market.

"CAPP's production forecast indicates that even with delays due to current economic circumstances, oilsands production is expected to grow, although the pace of development has slowed," said Greg Stringham, vice-president for markets and oilsands. "Producers expect continued demand for the security of supply that crude oil from Canada provides to the North American energy market."

CAPP sees no need for more pipe-line capacity in the decade ahead.

"In terms of pipeline capacity to meet market expectations, this year's outlook indicates that the significant pipeline development now under-way will amply connect forecasted production to long-term demand in the North American energy market," Stringham said.

dcooper@thejournal.canwest.com
© Copyright (c) The Edmonton Journal

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/business/Oilsands+output+could+grow+2025+forecast/1669866/story.html

vid
Jun 8, 2009, 12:38 AM
I'd be more surprised if they announced that they have a plan to clean up after they're finished taking all the oil out of the land.

1ajs
Jun 8, 2009, 1:31 AM
doubt it they will just let it be theres nothing u can realy do sadly inless they find a way to ship it to venus or somthing

Canadian Mind
Jun 8, 2009, 1:45 AM
doubt it they will just let it be theres nothing u can realy do sadly inless they find a way to ship it to venus or somthing

clean what up?

The water will settle eventually, it'll just take a few years.

vid
Jun 8, 2009, 3:41 AM
And the gigantic holes and toxic sludge?

1ajs
Jun 8, 2009, 3:53 AM
ur rebury it like the oil was befor and come along and plant trees overtop of it

mmmatt
Jun 8, 2009, 6:27 AM
Canada will most likely be one of the worlds last major oil producers...we are already among a small group of nations that actually has growing oil production...kind of a scary thought.

vid
Jun 8, 2009, 7:23 AM
We're becoming dependent on something that people are trying to move away from being dependent on. We're turning the country into a giant Northwestern Ontario! :(

Doug
Jun 8, 2009, 2:32 PM
I'd be more surprised if they announced that they have a plan to clean up after they're finished taking all the oil out of the land.


Reclamation has been part of the plan since Great Canadian Oilsands started up in the 1960's. The whole environmental disaster theme has been overplayed by out of province critics.

ue
Jun 8, 2009, 3:17 PM
Canada will most likely be one of the worlds last major oil producers...we are already among a small group of nations that actually has growing oil production...kind of a scary thought.


Especially considering if we can't get off this addiction to oil - that is the whole Global North - people will definitely be fighting over it and we'll be the epicentre along with places like Saudi Arabia of war :omg: .

WhipperSnapper
Jun 8, 2009, 3:27 PM
We're becoming dependent on something that people are trying to move away from being dependent on.

I don't see any major shifting as long as big oil and the green opportunistic counterparts makes truckloads of money.

Coldrsx
Jun 8, 2009, 3:33 PM
Reclamation has been part of the plan since Great Canadian Oilsands started up in the 1960's. The whole environmental disaster theme has been overplayed by out of province critics.

overplayed? come on dude... underplayed by a significant margin. That said we are doing more than people think... but the actual devastation is quite vast.

Calgarian
Jun 8, 2009, 6:37 PM
Oil will never die, we may find alternative fuels, but we will still make consumer goods out of it.

francely57
Jun 9, 2009, 9:24 PM
...so more of this?


from pembina.institute on flickr

"The oil sands mining landscape of Syncrude, north of Fort McMurray. The mines are 80 m deep, the truck on the road is a 400-tonne truck with tires bigger than humans. This view is from the west of Syncrude. Photo David Dodge, The Pembina Institute"
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3161/2986100971_e1faba0513_b.jpg
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pembina/2986100971/

Coldrsx
Jun 9, 2009, 9:54 PM
^progress and greed is sure purdy aint it.

ue
Jun 9, 2009, 9:58 PM
^^that looks so disgusting! uh we are such a selfish species ... considering how beautiful it probably was before. but no we need our hummers and minivans :(.

DizzyEdge
Jun 9, 2009, 10:27 PM
random question re that hell-on-earth photo.
Why not use some sort of oversized rail system to get the dug up sands to wherever it's being processed, using those trucks just to transfer from the digger to the giant rail cars?

Canadian Mind
Jun 9, 2009, 10:57 PM
see the plant in the background? The IS where the oil is being processed. No point loading up a train to go only 5 km when it would be faster and cheaper to use the same trucks to got the distance on their own.

Personally, I don't mind that "Hell On Earth" look of the area.

ue
Jun 9, 2009, 11:10 PM
^Why? Because you don't have to deal with it in Ontario?

Canadian Mind
Jun 9, 2009, 11:22 PM
^Why? Because you don't have to deal with it in Ontario?

Don't start trying to turn this into an East vs. West deal.

I spent 5 precious childhood years in Alberta, drove through the area every summer. Mind you it wasn't nearly as big back in 1997 to 2002. Rest of the time has been in pristine BC, so it's nice to see some of the exact opposite of what I spent the majorit of my life living in.

I've only been in Ontario since December. Not the biggest fan of this province, or atleast this part of it anyways.

ue
Jun 9, 2009, 11:25 PM
^Still doesn't answer why you like it though.

And it was just A comment, not meant to turn it into a versus thread.

sammo
Jun 9, 2009, 11:28 PM
see the plant in the background?
Personally, I don't mind that "Hell On Earth" look of the area.

ditto.
and i don't think 'children' know where burgers come from either.

Wooster
Jun 9, 2009, 11:48 PM
Meh, doesn't look much worse than most Canadian suburbs. ;)

shreddog
Jun 10, 2009, 12:05 AM
:whip: ...so more of this?


from pembina.institute on flickr

"The oil sands mining landscape of Syncrude, north of Fort McMurray. The mines are 80 m deep, the truck on the road is a 400-tonne truck with tires bigger than humans. This view is from the west of Syncrude. Photo David Dodge, The Pembina Institute"

Well, except that unlike many other jurisdictions, Alberta makes the big bad oil companies clean up their mess. Here is a picture of that same plant but from a different angle showing the overburden that is placed back over a mined out area.
http://www.ualberta.ca/~anaeth/images/Research_images/Looking%20Over%20W1%20To%20Syncrude.jpg

Which eventually grows into this
http://www.ualberta.ca/~anaeth/images/Research_images/Inside%20Natural%20Recovery.jpg.
(all pictures from U of A researchers)

Canadian Mind
Jun 10, 2009, 12:19 AM
^Still doesn't answer why you like it though.

Honestly I don't really have an answer for that. My closest guess would be that a Mordor-like environment is the complete opposite of the pristine coast of BC I spent most my life growing up on. It's dark and gritty, which I like

Just to take this a bit further, I'm also a big fan of Manhatten slums for the same reason, they are dark, gritty, and crouded, unlike the seaside hamlet of Fanny Bay, BC.

ditto.
and i don't think 'children' know where burgers come from either.

Niether do Seal-Hunt protestors. :)

That pit mine is kinda cool. Mercury you say? How does one find mercury naturally? o.O

Coldrsx
Jun 10, 2009, 2:07 AM
Meh, doesn't look much worse than most Canadian suburbs. ;)

where is my snare drum when i need it most:tup:

shreddog
Jun 10, 2009, 2:43 AM
That pit mine is kinda cool. Mercury you say? How does one find mercury naturally? o.O decomp of all the vegetation after inundation of the reservior. Once the mecury is in the water, it gets concentrated into the fish, to the point where the provincial health agency places bans on eating the fish. Cool thing is that in addition to the mercury, there is also high amounts of disolved CH4 in the reservoirs that gets released when the water is flushed through the turbines or sluce gates meaning that reservoir hydro electricity is also a substantial producing of green house gases.

Canadian Mind
Jun 10, 2009, 3:30 AM
decomp of all the vegetation after inundation of the reservior. Once the mecury is in the water, it gets concentrated into the fish, to the point where the provincial health agency places bans on eating the fish. Cool thing is that in addition to the mercury, there is also high amounts of disolved CH4 in the reservoirs that gets released when the water is flushed through the turbines or sluce gates meaning that reservoir hydro electricity is also a substantial producing of green house gases.

I meant how does one extract the mercury. Whil I didn't know about it leaching into the fish, i understand the processes behind hydroelectric dams producing greenhouse gases.

feepa
Jun 10, 2009, 4:22 AM
Yes, Oil & Oilsands is the big boogie man. Theres no other strip mining or other environmental disasters are going on in Canada anywhere. Never mind the over-fishing in the maritimes, huge Hydro dams in Quebec, or the nickel and etc mines in Ontario... Or the potash and uranium in Saskatchewan, or the de-forestation of most of BC. Or the diamond minds in the north...(you know, just to name a few...lots more where that came from) Oil is the hot conteversy of the day, so it gets all sorts of undue attention while other similar environmental blights are ignored...

vid
Jun 10, 2009, 4:36 AM
Ignored? First Nations in Northern Ontario are fighting with everything they've got to prevent strip mining on their land, and to get existing abandoned mines cleaned up. An entire band council was sent to prison last year because of it. Ontario is overhauling mining laws because of that conflict. You just haven't heard about this because it isn't a big enough story to be heard in Alberta.

We aren't abandoning everything to pick you.

wild wild west
Jun 10, 2009, 1:26 PM
Ignored? First Nations in Northern Ontario are fighting with everything they've got to prevent strip mining on their land, and to get existing abandoned mines cleaned up. An entire band council was sent to prison last year because of it. Ontario is overhauling mining laws because of that conflict. You just haven't heard about this because it isn't a big enough story to be heard in Alberta.

We aren't abandoning everything to pick you.

Not to diminish waht is happening elsewhere, but reading the national dailies (particularly the G&M) one gets absolutely bombarded with oilsands stories. It's good that the environmental issues in Ontario aren't being ignored, but it is unfortunate that it gets little national attention.

lubicon
Jun 10, 2009, 6:37 PM
If you want to see what Syncrude has been up to with regards to reclamation, follow this link:

http://www.syncrude.ca/users/folder.asp?FolderID=5909

habfanman
Jun 10, 2009, 7:26 PM
decomp of all the vegetation after inundation of the reservior. Once the mecury is in the water, it gets concentrated into the fish, to the point where the provincial health agency places bans on eating the fish. Cool thing is that in addition to the mercury, there is also high amounts of disolved CH4 in the reservoirs that gets released when the water is flushed through the turbines or sluce gates meaning that reservoir hydro electricity is also a substantial producing of green house gases.

If you're referring to hydroelectric dams, the decomp only happens if the land is not cleared prior to flooding. Even if it isn't cleared it's a one-time only process. Once the vegetation has rotted, methane levels return to normal.

There is an immense volume of 'organic material' (i.e. Leaves) that flow down river in the fall.

This activity occurs without regard to the existence of Hydro Plants.

The leaves float, saturate and sink to the bottom where they eventually decay. This has always occurred and will always occur without any assistance from hydroelectric dams.

Heavy metals such as mercury would have to be present in the soils around the dam reservoir. The geology of the region will determine these levels. Rainfall and runoff determine the amount of metals extracted.

The water behind the reservoir should not be any richer in heavy metals than in the runoff from the immediate areas around the dam before it was built.