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View Full Version : El Niño forecast for next winter could mean havoc for 2010 Olympics



mr.x
Aug 6, 2009, 1:06 AM
This means more rainfall and less snowfall in the mountains, with the freezing temperatures being higher.

Certainly not good news when we want those cameras to show this....
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/164/408356035_af858f012d.jpg


....instead of this.
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/154/408338997_0a7b5cb511.jpg




Olympic organizers: We're ready for El Niño forecast for 2010 winter


By Stuart Hunter, Canwest News Service
July 13, 2009

El Niño or not, Vancouver Olympic organizers say they’re ready for whatever weather Mother Nature sends our way this winter.

Based on the latest forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), it appears an El Niño weather pattern is building in the Pacific Ocean. El Niños generally bring drier and warmer conditions than normal.

“It looks like it could be tending toward an El Niño (this winter),” Environment Canada meteorologist Alyssa Charbonneau said. “Generally when you have an El Niño year, they tend to be a little warmer and freezing levels are higher. But the effects of El Niño can vary.”

According to the NOAA report, there is a large band of water which is one degree warmer than normal in the ocean. It is expected to last until February or March. Meteorologists say during a typical El Niño, Pacific storm systems often split as they head toward the coast going either north to Alaska or south to California resulting in warmer temperatures and drier conditions for B.C.

A spokeswoman for the Vancouver Olympic Organizing Committee said Games officials will be ready for any weather.

“We have been working with Environment Canada as a key partner in our weather planning, which includes having Environment Canada staff in our offices,” executive vice-president for Sports and Games Operations Cathy Priestner Allinger said in a statement.

“As weather planning is always a high priority for a Winter Games, we consider a number of different weather scenarios in our contingency planning to ensure that we are prepared to successfully stage the Games.”

A World Cup snowboard event and pre-Olympic tune-up slated for North Vancouver’s Cypress Mountain had to be cancelled last February when the snow became too soft to properly prepare the course. Investment in snowmaking machines and movers and stockpiling snow could help ensure successful hosting of the Olympic events both locally and at Whistler. And as Charbonneau noted El Niño forecasts “can vary quite a lot.”

— with a file from the Seattle Times
© copyright (c) CNS Olympics






El Nino could mean disaster for Olympics


By Kelly Sinoski and Mary Frances Hill, Canwest News Service
July 10, 2009

The return of El Nino could wash out parts of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics, weather forecasters say.

The global temperature fluctuation could result in warmer weather and a smaller snowfall, causing problems for the Games, which are set to kick off in February.

Meteorologist Mark Madryga said the climate phenomenon could mean warmer temperatures for the mountains surrounding Vancouver.

The Whistler peaks, the location for most of the Olympic events, would likely be spared, he said.

"If (El Nino) happens then chances are we would have a warmer-than-usual winter . . . that's not a good scenario for the Olympics," he said. "(But) it's still early in the game."

Vancouver Olympic officials said Thursday they aren't worried about El Nino.

Cathy Priestner Allinger, the Vancouver Olympic Committee's executive vice-president, said officials are working with Environment Canada to monitor weather patterns.

She said Olympic organizers have alternatives in place, should El Nino strike.

"As weather planning is always a high priority for a winter Games, we consider a number of different weather scenarios in our contingency planning to ensure that we are prepared to successfully stage the Games," she said in a statement.

Environment Canada meteorologist Gabor Fricska said B.C. typically experiences higher than normal temperatures and lower than normal precipitation levels when El Nino sweeps through.

Since 2002, there have been three El Ninos, which alter the jet stream, changing the type of flow of air coming off the Pacific. If it's weak, or a small deviation from normal, it won't have much of an effect.

The last strong El Nino to sweep through B.C. was in 1997-98.
© Copyright (c) Canwest News Service

flight_from_kamakura
Aug 6, 2009, 1:11 AM
on the other hand, aside from the inevitable rain, it would be pretty sweet if people could wear light coats or sweaters while in vancouver, then drive up to the snow events at whistler, etc.

mr.x
Aug 6, 2009, 1:18 AM
on the other hand, aside from the inevitable rain, it would be pretty sweet if people could wear light coats or sweaters and use umbrellas while in vancouver, then drive up to the snow events at whistler, etc.

I've corrected it for you.:tup:

I think the snow quality for Cypress is a major worry.

CBeats
Aug 6, 2009, 2:34 AM
That article says "North Vancouver's Cypress Mountain" had the problem. West Van was spared the embarrassment this time, but I felt pretty bad when all those articles mentioned "West Vancouver's Cypress Mountain" had all those problems that canceled those World Cup events, what with me living there and having worked at Cypress for several years :(

Hope nothing major goes wrong in 2010!

Stingray2004
Aug 6, 2009, 2:54 AM
Historical El Nino in Vancouver from Environment Canada:

Winter Heating Degree Day Percent Departure From Normal:

http://www.smc-msc.ec.gc.ca/education/elnino/canadian/all/cityimages/hdd_Vancouver.gif

Winter Temperature Departure From Normal:

http://www.smc-msc.ec.gc.ca/education/elnino/canadian/all/cityimages/temp_Vancouver.gif

Winter Precipitation Percent of Normal:

http://www.smc-msc.ec.gc.ca/education/elnino/canadian/all/cityimages/pcpn_Vancouver.gif

1998 Temperature Departure From Normal:

http://www.smc-msc.ec.gc.ca/education/elnino/canadian/_shared/cdn_temp_depart_1998.gif

http://www.smc-msc.ec.gc.ca/education/elnino/canadian/region/index_mean_e.cfm?region=all#regional

I wouldn't be tooooo concerned about El Nino unless it's an extreme event, which is unlikely.

Remember that Chinook winds in Calgary and environs raised the temperature up to around 20 C during the Calgary Olympics. And that was certainly disconcerting back then. But everything worked out.

SpongeG
Aug 6, 2009, 5:01 AM
yah but Calgary had snow

most el nino years the local mountains suffer - they get all wet and some shut down in february cause it was so bad

Yume-sama
Aug 6, 2009, 5:04 AM
Where's China's weather control machine when we need it!

cornholio
Aug 6, 2009, 7:43 AM
thats funny because I just mentioned this a day or two ago on here:)

atleast our summer is gorgeous.

twoNeurons
Aug 6, 2009, 2:19 PM
That article says "North Vancouver's Cypress Mountain" had the problem. West Van was spared the embarrassment this time, but I felt pretty bad when all those articles mentioned "West Vancouver's Cypress Mountain" had all those problems that canceled those World Cup events, what with me living there and having worked at Cypress for several years :(

Hope nothing major goes wrong in 2010!

W. Vancouver = Vancouver for 99.9% of people outside the GVRD... so Vancouver gets the embarrassment.

The North Shore mountains are Vancouver's mountains, not some punk suburb. :D



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