[trebor204]

With the 2011 Census being released on Wednesday, it might fun to guess what Canada's population will be. (2006 Census =31,612,894)

Be free to predict any another population number (Cities, Provinces, etc)

My Guess: 34,140,660

[MolsonExport]

already a thread on this topic: http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=197279

[Dwils01]

Toronto 2,753,609

I found this on a billboard while riding the GO train between Mimico and Exhibition stations.

[BretttheRiderFan]

I'm gonna guess 34.5 million

[niwell]

Toronto 2,753,609

I found this on a billboard while riding the GO train between Mimico and Exhibition stations.

Its actually an ad for the latest Drake album. The population figure is at least somewhat arbitrary.

http://media.thestar.topscms.com/images/2e/82/8d4fc33d43008f6966eea4906f1c.jpeg
Toronto Star

[softee]

^ I think they got that number from a government of Ontario website.

[Andrewjm3D]

My Toronto 2011 est.

• City 2,753,609
• Urban 5,178,120
• Metro 5,763,149

[Coldrsx]

Edmonton

810 city
1.15 met

[Andrewjm3D]

Actually I'm going to edit mine a little lower. It's only for 5 years right?

My Toronto 2011 est.

• City 2,753,609
• Urban 5,058,120
• Metro 5,563,149

[PoscStudent]

Seeing I created the CMA population prediction thread I'm going to comment on something a little different I think may appear in the census.

I believe there could be a noticeable difference in the percentage of visible minorities in Newfoundland and Labrador, particularly St. John's. While I don't believe the immigration levels have increased a lot in the province, it appears that we are keeping a lot more immigrants here than we previously have. I don't know if this will actually play out but it does appear just going around the city the last few years that there are more visible minorities. International students at MUN, which are not counted in the census, may affect all this too.

[Rico Rommheim]

The big M for the big 4 mil!

[ue]

Straight from the other thread

My guesses (rounded)

Toronto GTA - 6,110,000
Toronto CMA - 5,605,000
Montreal - 3,930,000
Vancouver - 2,500,000
Calgary - 1,265,000
Ottawa - 1,245,000
Edmonton - 1,210,000
Winnipeg - 770,000
Quebec City - 765,000
Hamilton - 760,000
K/W - 500,000
London, Ontario - 490,000
Halifax - 410,000
Victoria - 360,000
Windsor - 345,000
Saskatoon - 270,000
Regina - 235,000
Sherbrooke - 200,000
Kelowna - 195,000
Abbotsford - 195,000
St. John's - 190,000
Barrie - 190,000
Kingston - 160,000
Sudbury - 160,000
Trois Rivieres - 150,000
Moncton - 140,000
Guelph - 140,000
Thunder Bay - 125,000
Saint John - 125,000
Peterborough - 120,000
Lethbridge - 110,000
Nanaimo - 100,000
Kamloops - 100,000
Sydney/Cape Breton - 100,000
Red Deer - 95,000
Fredericton - 90,000
Sarnia - 85,000
Grande Prairie - 80,000
Medicine Hat - 75,000
North Bay - 65,000
Fort McMurray - 65,000
Charlottetown - 60,000
Brandon - 50,000
Penticton - 45,000
Lloydminster - 30,000
Val d'Or - 30,000
Whitehorse - 20,000
Yellowknife - 20,000

[haljackey]

The big questions is who will be on top between:

1. Winnipeg, Quebec City and Hamilton (750k-ish)

2. London and Kitchener/Waterloo/Cambridge (500k-ish)

One of the most recent population estimates by Statscan showed that there was just a 200 person difference between London and K/W/C. When the hard numbers arrive, I wonder just how close it will be? Only one of these CMAs will be in the top 10.

[Denscity]

Castlegar: 7900

[MolsonExport]

Old Crow (YT) 260

[goodthings]

Cities, not the metro ones:

1. Toronto: 2,775,000
2. Montreal: 1,730,000
3. Calgary: 1,195,000
4. Ottawa: 877,000
5. Edmonton: 800,000
6. Mississauga: 714,000
7. Winnipeg: 650,000
8. Vancouver: 630,000
9. Brampton: 525,000
10. Hamilton: 523,000
-----------------------
11. Surrey: 500,000
12. Quebec City: 495,000
13. Laval: 425,000
14. Halifax: 400,000
15. London: 375,000

[Darkoshvilli]

Montreal is closer to 2 million if not already there^

[MonkeyRonin]

I doubt the City of Toronto will be over 2.6 million, officially at least.


Montreal is closer to 2 million if not already there^

The Island is not the City. And I think we can all agree that the city did not gain 400,000 people in 5 years.

[Surrealplaces]

Edmonton

810 city
1.15 met

Statscan had Edmonton estimated at 1.17 in 2010, so it should be more around 1.2M


Here's my guesses for Canada's major cities. Before anyone responds to tell me that Montreal is over 4M, remember this is for the time when the census was done (July of 2011)

TOR 5.85
MTL 3.92
VAN 2.45
CGY 1.27
OTT 1.25
EDM 1.21
WPG .76
QUE .76
HAM .75

[Andrewjm3D]

Well we shall find out tomorrow.

[north 42]

I'm quite afraid to hear the numbers for Windsor coming out. Hopefully we haven't lost the gains we made over the last decade to the economic downturn of the last few years when many had to leave the city to look for work. They say the bleeding of population has stopped here and many who have left are now returning after realizing how expensive it is to live out west. I'm hoping for at least a small gain, but I'm definately not holding my breath.

[Habanero]

Wasn't the census actually done in summer of 2010? or am I getting things mixed up?

Statscan had Edmonton estimated at 1.17 in 2010, so it should be more around 1.2M


Here's my guesses for Canada's major cities. Before anyone responds to tell me that Montreal is over 4M, remember this is for the time when the census was done (July of 2011)

TOR 5.85
MTL 3.92
VAN 2.45
CGY 1.27
OTT 1.25
EDM 1.21
WPG .76
QUE .76
HAM .75

[Andrewjm3D]

I think the deadline was May 2011 to complete the census reports but I could be wrong.

[Surrealplaces]

I think the deadline was May 2011 to complete the census reports but I could be wrong.

Actually you're right. I'm not sure why I thought it was July of 2011.....

[ue]

Wasn't the census actually done in summer of 2010? or am I getting things mixed up?

The national censuses in Canada always occur on the -1 and -6 year of a decade. So 2011, 2006, 2001, 1996, 1991, etc. However, many municipalities, such as Calgary and Edmonton conduct their own census every year. This only shows the city proper population, though.

[trebor204]

Some more predictions:

Calgary will overtake Ottawa as Canada 4th Largest City
Winnipeg and Hamilton will overtake Quebec City as the 7th and 8th largest city. Winnipeg will become Canada 7th Largest City

In Manitoba:
Winker will hit the 10,000 population mark
Population of Winnipeg 725,000
Population of Brandon 52,000

[vid]

The Census deadline was May 10, 2011. The National Household Survey was conducted in July.

My predictions:

City of Thunder Bay will grow a little bit, to approximately 110,000 people; all of this growth will be due to aboriginals and visible minorities; the white population will drop to around 90,000. (As of the previous census, Thunder Bay has 109,140 people, ~95,720 of whom are not AI or VM)

CMA of Thunder Bay will grow a little bit, to approximately 124,000 people. As of the previous census, it is at 122,907.

District of Thunder Bay will shrink a fair amount, to below 140,000 people. As of the previous census, it is at 149,063

Northwestern Ontario's population will grow considerably, to around 250,000 people. As of the previous census, it has approximately 235,000 people. This growth will be nearly entirely because of a booming aboriginal population in the far north.

Many First Nations in the region will see growth rates over 35%. A few will see their populations double. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple small ones triple.

Kenora: up to 16,500
Dryden: down to 8,500
Fort Frances: up to 9,000
Atikokan: steady
Sioux Lookout: up to 6,500
Greenstone: down to 4,000
Marathon: down to 3,000

Tomorrow afternoon we shall see what happens. :fruit:

[Andrewjm3D]

Tomorrow we shall city if Toronto moves past Chicago for city population. All we will need is 2,833,321 + 1. It's going to be close.

[Symz]

I expect the number for Windsor to have gone down since the last census..

[MonkeyRonin]

Tomorrow we shall city if Toronto moves past Chicago for city population. All we will need is 2,833,321 + 1. It's going to be close.


Chicago has 2,695,598 now, which is where the question comes in. Because here's no way Toronto will have >2,833,322 people.

[Andrewjm3D]

You're right Chicago is only 2,695,598 (2010) the numbers here on SSP city page are incorrect then. Toronto has 2,503,281 as of 2006. Most likely however Toronto will be at around 2,650,000, but it's not a huge stretch to think it might be higher then that. More people moved into the core form 2006-2011 then in any recent 5 year period. Montreal is most likey to jump up the list tomorrow.

[Andrewjm3D]

Chicago has 2,695,598 now, which is where the question comes in. Because here's no way Toronto will have >2,833,322 people.

This is where I got some of those numbers - This site needs correcting, or Wiki does. http://skyscraperpage.com/cities/?s=1&c=5&p=0&r=50&10=1

[vid]

The site needs correcting. Wikipedia will be corrected for all major CMAs within hours of that data being posted. This site is only updated as the handful of volunteers get to it.

[flar]

I'm pretty sure CMA populations will not be released tomorrow, probably sometime in the summer. I hope I'm wrong though.




Some more predictions:

Calgary will overtake Ottawa as Canada 4th Largest City
Winnipeg and Hamilton will overtake Quebec City as the 7th and 8th largest city. Winnipeg will become Canada 7th Largest City


I think the order will be Winnipeg, Quebec, Hamilton.

[Darkoshvilli]

I doubt the City of Toronto will be over 2.6 million, officially at least.




The Island is not the City. And I think we can all agree that the city did not gain 400,000 people in 5 years.

Technicalities. Westmount, Cote-st-Luc, Hampstead, Outremont, Dorval are all Montreal.

[Chadillaccc]

Im actually mostly interested in the population increases in the territories, specifically in Iqaluit, Yellowknife and Whitehorse.

Also looking forward to the provincial population increases aswell.

[Rico Rommheim]

Technicalities. Westmount, Cote-st-Luc, Hampstead, Outremont, Dorval are all Montreal.

That's right, although not quite the same story for the western tip of the island.

Btw, out outremont is officially part of Montreal, as they voted not to demerge.


As far as in concerned, the whole one island one city idea was a good one, just badly executed. Instead of keeping a billion tiny little boroughs we should of pulled a new York and divide the newly unified island onto four or five boroughs.

[Darkoshvilli]

As far as in concerned, the whole one island one city idea was a good one, just badly executed. Instead of keeping a billion tiny little boroughs we should of pulled a new York and divide the newly unified island onto four or five boroughs.
Agreed. Its ridiculous to have a bunch of mini-cities scattered around within a city.

[toaster]

Is St-Leonard considered part of Montreal?

[PoscStudent]

No more predicting needed.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/120208/dq120208a-eng.htm

[Acajack]

Is St-Leonard considered part of Montreal?

Yes. It was once a separate city but was merged in the big megamerger and did not demerge when this was permitted a few years later.

[Coldrsx]

Edmonton and Calgary rockin it

[CanadianCentaur]

Edmonton is now 812,201 within city limits and 1,159,869 metro.

Looks like it's time to change my sig!

Grande Prairie grew to 55,032, up 16.8%, or 7,926 from 47,107 in 2006 and 50,227 in 2007 (last civic census - not to be confused with the federal census!!!) - one of the faster growing cities outside Edmonton and Calgary CMAs and Fort Mac. But oddly, the CA now no longer includes the County of Grande Prairie like it did in 2006 - both the area covered and the population are now the same as the city of GP. Something doesn't sound right. :koko:

[Bassic Lab]

Edmonton is now 812,201 within city limits and 1,159,869 metro.

Looks like it's time to change my sig!

Grande Prairie grew to 55,032, up 16.8%, or 7,926 from 47,107 in 2006 and 50,227 in 2007 (last civic census - not to be confused with the federal census!!!) - one of the faster growing cities outside Edmonton and Calgary CMAs and Fort Mac. But oddly, the CA now no longer includes the County of Grande Prairie like it did in 2006 - both the area covered and the population are now the same as the city of GP. Something doesn't sound right. :koko:

My only guess for Grande Prairie would involve annexation. The county may have been included previously because Grande Prairie's Urban Area crossed the municipal boundary. If the city then annexed all of the UA then the contiguity rule would no longer require the county's inclusion in the CA.

IIRC CAs don't have the same permanence as CMAs. They can be merged, altered, or deleted depending on changing circumstances.

[vid]

City of Thunder Bay will grow a little bit, to approximately 110,000 people; all of this growth will be due to aboriginals and visible minorities; the white population will drop to around 90,000. (As of the previous census, Thunder Bay has 109,140 people, ~95,720 of whom are not AI or VM)

Wrong on this one. Thunder Bay lost 0.7% of its population and is now at 108,359. The 2006 figure has been corrected to 109,160 due to a boundary change, but I have no idea what that change might be.

We'll have to wait a while to see how the demographics played out.

CMA of Thunder Bay will grow a little bit, to approximately 124,000 people. As of the previous census, it is at 122,907.

Wrong again. It's down to 121,596, a 1.1% drop.

District of Thunder Bay will shrink a fair amount, to below 140,000 people. As of the previous census, it is at 149,063

The district did better than I thought it would. 146,057, a 2% drop.

Northwestern Ontario's population will grow considerably, to around 250,000 people. As of the previous census, it has approximately 235,000 people. This growth will be nearly entirely because of a booming aboriginal population in the far north.

NWO is down by 4.7% to 224,034. Out of all economic regions, only the southern part of Newfoundland Island did worse. The number is slightly off due to incomplete enumeration on reserves. I have a feeling that aboriginal people were severely under counted due to the new census format.

Many First Nations in the region will see growth rates over 35%. A few will see their populations double. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple small ones triple.

I thought the comment about tripling was a bit of an exaggeration. Nope.

Fort Albany 67 grew by 30,000%. From 5, to 1,520. A relocation of a First Nation from one reserve to another.

Kenora: up to 16,500
Dryden: down to 8,500
Fort Frances: up to 9,000
Atikokan: steady
Sioux Lookout: up to 6,500
Greenstone: down to 4,000
Marathon: down to 3,000

Kenora up, but only to 15,350, a 1.1% increase.

Dryden was down significantly, to 7,600, a 7.6% drop. It is by far the smallest city in Ontario.

Fort Frances dropped 1.9% to 7,952. With Dryden's sharp decline, Fort Frances is one again the third largest community in Northwestern Ontario.

Atikokan is down to 2,787, a 15.4% drop. Atikokan once had almost 7,000 people.

Sioux Lookout down 2.8% to 5,037.

Greenstone down to 4,724, a 3.3% drop. They fared better than I thought.

Marathon at 3,353, a 13% drop, but still better than I thought.

Big surprise:

Schreiber grew by 25%, to 1,126. This doesn't make up for its 37% drop from 2001 to 2006, but the turn around is quite impressive. Neighbouring Terrace Bay is down to 1,471, a 9.7% drop. The twin towns still lost population, but nowhere near as much as I thought.

However, the census was done while the pulp mill in Terrace Bay was in operation. It closed a few weeks ago, after an explosion.

Last census I was surprised that my region had grown. This time, I am surprised we haven't.

[goodthings]

+ OVERestimated
- UNDERestimated

1. Toronto: 2,775,000 (+ 160,540) --> OOPS. I overhyped....
2. Montreal: 1,730,000 (+ 80,481) --> OOPS. I overhyped again....
3. Calgary: 1,195,000 (+ 98,167) --> and again.......
4. Ottawa: 877,000 (- 6,391)
5. Edmonton: 800,000 (- 12,201)
6. Mississauga: 714,000 (+ 557) ---> CLOSEST GUESS!!!
7. Winnipeg: 650,000 (- 13,617)
8. Vancouver: 630,000 (+ 26,498)
9. Brampton: 525,000 (+ 1,089)
10. Hamilton: 523,000 (+ 3,051)
-----------------------
11. Surrey: 500,000 (+ 31,749)
12. Quebec City: 495,000 (- 21,622)
13. Laval: 425,000 (+ 23,447)
14. Halifax: 400,000 (+ 9,904)
15. London: 375,000 (+ 8,849)

[freeweed]

Dryden was down significantly, to 7,600, a 7.6% drop. It is by far the smallest city in Ontario.

vid, does this include the larger "city" that was created when Dryden and Barclay merged some years back? If so, wow - my hometown certainly has shrunk. It was about 6500 30 years ago, and with the Barclay merge I thought it was closer to 9-10,000.

[vid]

vid, does this include the larger "city" that was created when Dryden and Barclay merged some years back? If so, wow - my hometown certainly has shrunk. It was about 6500 30 years ago, and with the Barclay merge I thought it was closer to 9-10,000.

Yes, it's the population for the amalgamated Dryden. It was assumed at the time that they would have 10,000 people, that is why Dryden's request for city status was approved, but it turned out differently after the 2001 census and it has been downhill from there.

Also, I thought Dryden's population was higher than it was; Fort Frances has been larger than it the whole time.

[Chadillaccc]

So when are we going to get the numbers with the undercount included? Because I don't believe that Quebec is still under 8 million people nor do I believe a lot of other numbers represented in the census figures.

[vid]

These numbers apply to a single moment more than 8 months ago. That is why Quebec has under 8 million people according to the census.

Context, people. The numbers are for a day that comes before the two most recent quarterly estimates!

The census profile numbers will not be changed. The under-count will be factored in when the quarterly estimates start being based on this census instead of the 2006 census, which I think will happen in late 2013.