Provincial Budget - 2015

[statbass]

I figure just as well start a new thread seeing the budget will come down on April 30.

We're already seeing some outcomes already: 77.5 teaching position and 1400+ public sector attrition cuts.

It'll be interesting to see what happens on Thursday.

[PoscStudent]

Personally, I quite liked today's announcement. Government will allow the private sector to build and operate four long-term care homes on the island and the government will provide public funding for the beds in those homes. Of course the unions are upset.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/unions-condemn-paul-davis-s-long-term-care-bed-plan-1.3051622

[PoscStudent]

As well tomorrow morning the government will be announcing the long awaited fiscal framework with municipalities.

[Trevor3]

I'm anxious to see how this breaks down after it all comes out. I expect this is going to be on par with 2013 in terms of reaction - unless the PC's are throwing all the bad out there now so that we are pleasantly surprised on Thursday. Being an election year, they are basically left balancing responsible cost-cutting and ticking people off.

I'm also going to assume that S'ville's new courthouse is off the table again. It's been a full year since government announced plans to start work on it and 7 or 8 months since the architect's were hired, and I don't even think a site selection was done. So that's 12 years of PC government and 12 years of waiting for a courthouse that was first announced in 2002.

[goodgrowth]

Personally, I quite liked today's announcement. Government will allow the private sector to build and operate four long-term care homes on the island and the government will provide public funding for the beds in those homes. Of course the unions are upset.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/unions-condemn-paul-davis-s-long-term-care-bed-plan-1.3051622

I agree...something needs to be done. The health care costs in this province are about $3 billion a year. Doing some basic math that works out to a cost of about $470/month per Newfoundlander to put it in perspective. Seems unsustainable especially with our aging population.

[SignalHillHiker]

I'm not sure what to think. Attrition is definitely preferable to layoffs - but the public service has already declined so much since 2013.

Privatizing long-term care is fine with me. The Feds are content to let it go, so we can't hold out against creeping privatization alone.

The cut to teaching positions is really just a rearrangement with the addition of more teachers. I'm not sure why they marketed it as they did - probably to preempt any opposition response.

[SignalHillHiker]

BTW - 15 minutes until the highlights of the new municipal funding arrangement are announced.

[SignalHillHiker]

Municipalities will get a portion of HST and provincial gas tax revenue.

New advisory committee will look at regional governance.

[statbass]

I hope this number is off.... that's a big deficit!

VOCM News
April 29, 2015

A public policy report from the University of Calgary predicts Newfoundland and Labrador could be facing a $1.8 billion deficit when the budget is tabled -- that's pending no major spending cuts.

Examining 44 years of data, author Ron Kneebone says the province has adopted the high-risk budgeting strategy of Alberta and Saskatchewan by using resource revenues to fund health care, education and social assistance.

A deficit of $1.8-billion would be the largest since 1970, equating to roughly $3,300 per person.

...

http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&ID=54353

[goodgrowth]

I hope this number is off.... that's a big deficit!

VOCM News
April 29, 2015



http://www.vocm.com/newsarticle.asp?mn=2&ID=54353

That is very high but remember offshore royalties comprise a very large part of gov revenues and the average price of oil basically dropped 40-50%. Combine this with the costs of Muskrat Falls and this number may be possible.

[SignalHillHiker]

It's not going to be that high. But it will be at least $1 billion. It probably would be that high without whatever tax increases and spending reductions are not included in the budget

Looks like HST is going up as Premier wouldn't answer that question at today's announcement.

[displacednewfie]

It's not going to be that high. But it will be at least $1 billion. It probably would be that high without whatever tax increases and spending reductions are not included in the budget

Looks like HST is going up as Premier wouldn't answer that question at today's announcement.

Not looking forward to tomorrows budget at all. It's almost 100% certain that the HST is increasing by 2% (which is not that bad), what I fear the most is the new tax brackets that are rumored to be in the budget.

I know this is probably not a popular stance here in Newfoundland & Labrador but I would love to hear several departments being privatized tomorrow when the budget is tabled.

[SignalHillHiker]

New tax brackets make sense. We only have three I believe. And they top out at 13.3%. NS goes up to 21%.

[goodgrowth]

Not looking forward to tomorrows budget at all. It's almost 100% certain that the HST is increasing by 2% (which is not that bad), what I fear the most is the new tax brackets that are rumored to be in the budget.

I know this is probably not a popular stance here in Newfoundland & Labrador but I would love to hear several departments being privatized tomorrow when the budget is tabled.

Health Care is by far the largest expense. Personally I would like to see a two-tiered system that keeps public health care but allows private options. Very unpopular view I know but I think it will have to come at some point.

[displacednewfie]

Health Care is by far the largest expense. Personally I would like to see a two-tiered system that keeps public health care but allows private options. Very unpopular view I know but I think it will have to come at some point.

That would be ideal. What I find amazing is all the doomsday comments being made about how it will be the death of healthcare in Newfoundland. I had the opportunity of living in an area where we had "2" systems so to speak. I have got to say it still had its problems but over all it is run much much better.

[displacednewfie]

New tax brackets make sense. We only have three I believe. And they top out at 13.3%. NS goes up to 21%.

Yes it does make sense but still makes me gag every time I think about the possibility of having to pay more taxes. I have to wonder how many of those that work away and still live at home would stay here if the increase was as drastic as what some of the rumors are.

Personally for me I would rather see a significant reduction in paper pushing public servants and a dramatic reduction in public services offered by the government.

[overboard]

I'd like to see higher taxes, increased services, and a few nationalized industries, personally. I'm a bit tired of funneling money to private CEOs and international corporations when the government could fill many roles more fully (because of legislative power), efficiently (because of scale - pharmacare, for instance), and with better employee pay and benefits. Shortcomings in services don't mean government doesn't work, but that there are improvements to make. An attitude of fixing, rather than slashing and burning, would be nice.

I don't know many displaced newfies who would choose not to come home over a few percentage points in taxes,

</things that will not be in the budget>

[SignalHillHiker]

CBC has confirmed the HST is going up by 2% (to 15%, which will tie us with Nova Scotia and, more or less, Quebec as the highest in the federation). The Province is going to expand the HST rebate for lower income earners to lessen the impact on them.

*****

We have similar views, overboard, overall. :)

[PoscStudent]

I hate this move to raise the HST.

[Copes]

I wish there was no HST rise. I understand why there is, but I wish there wasn't.

Happy to see the privatization of long-term care. I'm generally all for privatization of non-essential services.

[statbass]

I hate this move to raise the HST.

You and many others. But, unfortunately, something has to give and increasing sales tax seems to be a 'better' way of increasing revenues without hacking and slashing specific groups/sectors (not to say that won't happen as well).

What I hate about it is that it's a precedent setting move. Once this goes up, regardless of how things improve in the future, the chances of it coming down will be slim... IMHO.

[overboard]

You really think so? Lower taxes are the easiest sell there is. Most people would sign their souls to the Liberals if they promised to lower them again when oil prices rise.

While income taxes are preferable to sales taxes, I'm glad the government has at least looked at the revenue side of the equation. David Cochrane mentioned on Twitter that they may be revamping tax brackets as well, which is a great thing.

[PoscStudent]

You and many others. But, unfortunately, something has to give and increasing sales tax seems to be a 'better' way of increasing revenues without hacking and slashing specific groups/sectors (not to say that won't happen as well).

What I hate about it is that it's a precedent setting move. Once this goes up, regardless of how things improve in the future, the chances of it coming down will be slim... IMHO.

I'd rather see an overhaul of how government is run to reduce spending rather than raise taxes to largely maintain status quo.

[Copes]

I'd rather see an overhaul of how government is run to reduce spending rather than raise taxes to largely maintain status quo.

Absolutely. Reducing government spending is far more sustainable, and will likely keep the population happier than these measures.

[goodgrowth]

I'd rather see an overhaul of how government is run to reduce spending rather than raise taxes to largely maintain status quo.

The only way I could see that possibly working is some sort of balanced budget legislation that would also restrict tax increases. Skeptical that would ever happen though.

[overboard]

Surely cutting jobs and programs is the road to a happy population.

I'm sure there are areas where money could be saved or services simplified, but the idea that there are vast sums that could be saved through "efficiencies" has never been backed up. Sure, you can get some wages off the books through privatization, but don't you think there's a cost? Ontario privatized its highway snow clearing. They saved something like 0.05% of their budget but service suffered drastically and accidents worsened. We still end up paying for the service, but people on the bottom are even further hurt, and wages and services often suffer. Like, how do you think the private sector is able to provide a similar service while raking in profit? Service levels or compensation are lowered, pay at the top balloons, and the government still ends up paying through subsidies to private business.

Now is a great time to be in debt, to fund services and employ people. We're only worse for it because we've been down for so long. When oil prices recover hopefully our politicians can find a way to make a decent profit, and put some away for the next time.

And "balanced budget legislation" is a political ploy. You can't tie the hands of a future government by definition. If anyone promises that one they are pandering; it's unenforceable.

[PoscStudent]

Surely cutting jobs and programs is the road to a happy population.

I'm sure there are areas where money could be saved or services simplified, but the idea that there are vast sums that could be saved through "efficiencies" has never been backed up. Sure, you can get some wages off the books through privatization, but don't you think there's a cost? Ontario privatized its highway snow clearing. They saved something like 0.05% of their budget but service suffered drastically and accidents worsened. We still end up paying for the service, but people on the bottom are even further hurt, and wages and services often suffer. Like, how do you think the private sector is able to provide a similar service while raking in profit? Service levels or compensation are lowered, pay at the top balloons, and the government still ends up paying through subsidies to private business.

Now is a great time to be in debt, to fund services and employ people. We're only worse for it because we've been down for so long. When oil prices recover hopefully our politicians can find a way to make a decent profit, and put some away for the next time.

And "balanced budget legislation" is a political ploy. You can't tie the hands of a future government by definition. If anyone promises that one they are pandering; it's unenforceable.

If we have programs that aren't working and employees who do not have enough work to justify a job then why not cut? Government isn't a make work project.

As for taking on debt we may soon surpass paying out $1 billion a year to service our debt. How can that be realistic? I believe we are spending more on servicing debt now then we are spending on education. That's not sustainable. Government needs to figure out why we are spending so much more per capita then other provinces and why outcomes aren't better despite the extra cost.

[goodgrowth]

Surely cutting jobs and programs is the road to a happy population.

I'm sure there are areas where money could be saved or services simplified, but the idea that there are vast sums that could be saved through "efficiencies" has never been backed up. Sure, you can get some wages off the books through privatization, but don't you think there's a cost? Ontario privatized its highway snow clearing. They saved something like 0.05% of their budget but service suffered drastically and accidents worsened. We still end up paying for the service, but people on the bottom are even further hurt, and wages and services often suffer. Like, how do you think the private sector is able to provide a similar service while raking in profit? Service levels or compensation are lowered, pay at the top balloons, and the government still ends up paying through subsidies to private business.

Now is a great time to be in debt, to fund services and employ people. We're only worse for it because we've been down for so long. When oil prices recover hopefully our politicians can find a way to make a decent profit, and put some away for the next time.

And "balanced budget legislation" is a political ploy. You can't tie the hands of a future government by definition. If anyone promises that one they are pandering; it's unenforceable.

Well we have very different fundamental views on government and the economy...so this will just spin into and endless argument.

[overboard]

No need to spin out of control. You're stating your views, I'm stating mine. Sometimes these topics need opposition for balance.

Though if I know you're wrong about something, such as balanced budget legislation, I will point it out.

Edit:
You really think so? Lower taxes are the easiest sell there is. Most people would sign their souls to the Liberals if they promised to lower them again when oil prices rise.


@DwightBallMHA says @nlliberals would rollback the 2 per cent HST increase #nlpoli reaction to Budget 2015

Grab your pens!

[PoscStudent]

Not impressed with this budget. Doesn't seem to be much in the way of actually do anything different. I was pleased with the pre-budget announcements over the last week and was hoping for better.

[SignalHillHiker]

The biggest change seems to be amalgamating the administration of all the health boards.

A few unfortunate big increases that will push people to the Libs.

10% increase on everyone's power bill won't help (8% rebate now gone, plus 2% increase to HST).

[PoscStudent]

Health boards should have been merged to two or three. Eastern Health is huge in comparison to the others and operates fine, for the most part.

[SignalHillHiker]

Fair - the only... BUT I have is:

They established an organization to digitize health records, so you could go to a hospital in St. John's, Grand Falls, or Corner Brook, and the doctor could instantly bring up your health record.

That's the core of the administration. And that was already one for all. This amalgamation just merges everything else into that facility as well.

[PoscStudent]

Fair - the only... BUT I have is:

They established an organization to digitize health records, so you could go to a hospital in St. John's, Grand Falls, or Corner Brook, and the doctor could instantly bring up your health record.

That's the core of the administration. And that was already one for all. This amalgamation just merges everything else into that facility as well.

You still have CEOs and what not.

[goodgrowth]

In the budget estimates it shows that the money to be appropriated to Nalcor this year alone is $760,000,000.

And we still have several more years of those types of numbers in order to complete Muskrat Falls...

[PoscStudent]

People in N.L. 'a little delusional' about state of economy: Don Mills


A pollster is warning the economy in Newfoundland and Labrador isn't doing as well as people seem to think — and there are solutions to the province's problems, but they may not be popular.

Don Mills, CEO of Corporate Research Associates, said the province placed last in economic growth over the last seven years.

Mills was in St. John's Wednesday to talk to the business community and he had a message that may be difficult to swallow for some people.

"People are a little delusional in this province in terms of how well the economy is going," he said.

According to Mills, part of the problem may have been former premier Danny Williams.

"The downside of Danny Williams, and I have a lot of respect for him, is that he doubled the provincial budget within that timeframe too," said Mills.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/people-in-n-l-a-little-delusional-about-state-of-economy-don-mills-1.3064131

[SignalHillHiker]

:haha: Very true.

I just love the sense of entitlement. We have that a bit on the federal level as well - but the idea that a guy doing seasonal work in Gallants and paying a pittance in property taxes is not getting what he's paying for cracks me up. Sure buddy your $300 property tax is keeping the province afloat.

They don't pay enough taxes in their lifetimes to cover the cost of the hydro pole by the house. It's all subsidized by the urban areas. Yes, we all pay, but the urban areas are the only places where enough people pay for services that can be more affordably provided to create the tax surplus used to keep everywhere else going.

We have, what, 15 hospitals and 29 clinics. For a province with the population of a small city. We spend about $12,500 per person in provincial expenditures. Every other province is in the $7,000-$9,000 range. It can't go on.

People have to choose: electricity, running water, roads, and government services OR living where Pop did.

[Copes]

:haha: Very true.

I just love the sense of entitlement. We have that a bit on the federal level as well - but the idea that a guy doing seasonal work in Gallants and paying a pittance in property taxes is not getting what he's paying for cracks me up. Sure buddy your $300 property tax is keeping the province afloat.

They don't pay enough taxes in their lifetimes to cover the cost of the hydro pole by the house. It's all subsidized by the urban areas. Yes, we all pay, but the urban areas are the only places where enough people pay for services that can be more affordably provided to create the tax surplus used to keep everywhere else going.

We have, what, 15 hospitals and 29 clinics. For a province with the population of a small city. We spend about $12,500 per person in provincial expenditures. Every other province is in the $7,000-$9,000 range. It can't go on.

People have to choose: electricity, running water, roads, and government services OR living where Pop did.

Preach it buddy.

My question constantly though, is what is the answer? You obviously can't forcibly remove people. So do you just shut down the services? The heartless and pragmatic side of me says yeah, close down a few hospitals and schools. But I don't think any politician is going to do that.

So what is the solution? I honestly don't know, aside from relocation. Have any politicians in the past put forward any reasonable alternatives?

[SignalHillHiker]

The solution is certainly that when Nippers Harbour votes en masse for relocation, the Province says yes. Even if moving them costs a few million more than keeping them going for 10 years where they are. Such measurements don't take into account the symbolic value or the potential benefits those people will bring to their new, larger community.

Beyond that... There's not a lot we can justly do. We can start by regionalizing hospitals and schools. We should be able to service the entire province with 5-10 large hospitals. Not 15. Then we need to have community clinics in regionalized schools. They should be attached like a booze store on a Sobeys. Minimal staff for triage, light treatment, and referral if necessary.

We need to provide an incentive for individuals to move to a town with, say, 3,500 people or more. You should have some financial incentive to move from Goobies to Clarenville.

It's a good time to make big moves. Old folks love moving to the nearest town with a hospital. And these especially rural areas are aging fast.

And then we also need some consideration for heritage. A place like Bonavista needs to survive no matter what. It is who we are.

Beyond that I don't know. But healthcare and education are more than half of our budget. If we can get those working, we will be fine for a generation or more.

[rthomasd]

Quick question - What happens to Nippur's Harbour if we relocate the residents? Do we burn down the houses, tear up the roads, etc? I'll bet you that the relocated residents assume that they can keep their old houses as summer places and unlike an island, even an old dirt road can get them there, but we will still have road costs. Is the Gov't committed enough to stop that?

I've heard that we came very close to closing Bell Island some years ago. People were paid for their properties etc, but Frank Moores government promised to reopen it if elected and when he did get in sold the properties back to the residents for $1, anyone know if there's any truth to that?

[goodgrowth]

These issues wouldn't exist to the same extent if municipalities were responsible for providing most services (and thus taxes) over the provincial gov. The level of services in an area would reflect the population/economic activity in that municipality.