Downtown Los Angeles - South Group; Elleven, Luma, Evo and Future Projects

[colemonkee]

If the fence at 9th and Olive fence is a plain chain-link fence, it's been there for a while. But the Hanover lot to my best recollection never had a fence on it. Were there cars parked in that lot?

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

no cars at hanover site, and im pretty sure its a new fence because i was at Staples last weekand there was nothing there. I guess your right about 9th and Olive. maybe it was wishful thinking on my part.

[LosAngelesBeauty]

^ Well, it could definitely be something going on as the "blank" wall of the Variety Arts is no longer being used as an "ad mural."

I know the guy who is the manager of Hanover here in LA. They also have another project they're finishing up in Pasadena called "Prado on Lake Avenue."

Check it out. The quality will be about the same.

www.pradolakeavenue.com

[bobcat]

DT News did say Hanover was scheduled to break ground first week of November.

[LosAngelesBeauty]

^ Prado has to finish first before they start on Hanover Tower. But it does seem that Prado is pretty much done. Anyone seen it in real life yet?

[colemonkee]

^No, but I've seen a couple of Hanover projects in Houston, and they're pretty nice. They definitely know what they're doing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Hanover Tower is for lease, not for sale, right?

[LosAngelesBeauty]

For sale last I heard!

[colemonkee]

no cars at hanover site, and im pretty sure its a new fence because i was at Staples last weekand there was nothing there. I guess your right about 9th and Olive. maybe it was wishful thinking on my part.

That fence is definitely new. I walked by that intersection last week and there was no fence there. There was one hoopty (ooooohhh, I just dated myself, there) looking car parked there today, other than that it was empty and completely blocked out. They're definitely getting that site ready for something. This will be one to watch in the coming weeks.

[edkao]

Katfam,

Thanks for posting pictures of the Elleven interior.

Do you have pictures of the "shotgun" units? The 18' wide units. Have you been in them? If so do they feel claustrophobic?

Lastly, how did you gain access to the construction site?

Thanks, Ed

[katfam]

Got pictures form somebody who is able to walk around construction site. As for the other unit, it looks like a great size for what it is. South Group did a great job in making space open and big. Don't think you'll be disapointed. Did you buy at Elleven?

[colemonkee]

Katfam,

Thanks for posting pictures of the Elleven interior.

Do you have pictures of the "shotgun" units? The 18" wide units. Have you been in them? If so do they feel claustrophobic?

Lastly, how did you gain access to the construction site?

Thanks, Ed

My place at the Higgins Bldg. has areas that are 18ft. wide (I'm assuming you didn't mean 18 inches). It's plenty of space, as long as you're smart about how you use that space.

[edkao]

Yes,

I bought Unit 916. It's shaped like the letter P.
It's been fun to see the building finally take shape.

Ed

[katfam]

Ed, Nice to meet you! I have unit 609, the 2b/2b North West corner unit. It's been great watching South take shape and can't wait to move in. South said they are on time and still expected a March 30th completion date for move in's to start April 1st. Look forward to meeting you :)

Did you go to the South VIP event a few weeks back? I'll be putting pictures of that event up soon.

[bobcat]

Civic, Business Leaders and Urban Pioneers Celebrate South; Milestones in New Development Mark the Return of Neighborhoods to Downtown L.A.

10 November 2005
05:43 pm
Business Wire
English
(c) 2005 Business Wire. All Rights Reserved.

LOS ANGELES - (BUSINESS WIRE) - Nov. 10, 2005 - Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa played a 700-foot Earth Harp Oct. 27, symbolically ringing in the vibrant possibilities of downtown Los Angeles living, during a celebration of the latest milestones reached in the revitalization of the area's urban core.

More than 600 people, including the Mayor and City Councilmember Jan Perry, joined the South Group development team in toasting downtown L.A.'s new "South" community. The event featured the topping off of Elleven, and the groundbreaking of Luma and Evo, the South Group's trio of residential towers that are the first new ground-up buildings in downtown L.A. in 20 years.

"This kind of development -- transit oriented, resource sensitive and environmentally responsible -- is the kind of smart growth that will not only accommodate the needs of our city and citizens now, but will continue to serve us well in the future," Mayor Villaraigosa said.

New downtown residents, the first to buy units in the South Group's buildings, were also among the guests.

The Earth Harp -- a stunning, large scale, architectural stringed instrument that was part of a performance by the group MASS Ensemble -- was strung 700 feet from the stage to the top of Elleven. New residents joined Mayor Villaraigosa and MASS Ensemble members in "playing" the building -- presenting a visual and musical extravaganza for the audience.

Another special moment came when South Group principal Tom Cody announced the company's donation of $10,000 to the New Image Emergency Shelter for the Homeless, which provides year-round emergency shelter near downtown Los Angeles. Councilwoman Jan Perry said, "Alongside those who can afford these wonderful new residences in a fresh, inviting neighborhood, are other less fortunate citizens. With its gift, the South Group demonstrates its concern for all Los Angelenos, and helps in my own determination to end homelessness in our city."

Downtown is experiencing an amazing revitalization, demonstrated by the unprecedented sales of new property. The South Group, the leading developer of new condo projects in downtown L.A., is creating a new neighborhood in the city's core.

The new "South" neighborhood will be formed by a collection of innovative residential buildings designed for modern living, an active pedestrian path featuring plazas, paseos, fountains and gardens, and a vibrant streetscape full of retail shops and services. Located near such landmarks as STAPLES Center and L.A. Live, and easy walking to public transportation, the project seeks to create a vibrant, 24-hour neighborhood.

Also a leader in environmentally-responsible design, the South Group is expected to deliver to Los Angeles its first downtown residential buildings to be certified by the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) for Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED).

Elleven, scheduled for move-ins in April 2006, is sold out; Luma's 236 units sold out in seven hours, with construction scheduled for completion in summer 2007, and Evo is just breaking ground.

About The South Group

The South Group brings together two Portland, Oregon-based developers Williams & Dame and Gerding/Edlen.

Williams & Dame's leaders, Homer Williams and Dike Dame, represent over 70 years of collective real estate experience. The firm uses an organic approach to urban transformation, collaborating with public and private partners to create unique neighborhoods that blend quality housing, vibrant street life and new business opportunities.

Gerding/Edlen is widely respected for their extensive experience building large scale, mixed-use developments. With a fundamental commitment to building environmentally sustainable structures, the forward-thinking company fosters an "eco-friendly," progressive approach to urban living that sets a new standard in community-based development. For more information about The South Group, visit www.exploresouthgroup.com , The South Sales Center at 707 S. Grand Avenue or call 213-622-5400.

JWalcher Communications Jean Walcher / Ken David, 619-295-7140 jean@jwalcher.com / ken@jwalcher.com

[colemonkee]

I'm really looking forward to seeing two tower cranes at the South site, but I think we're a few months away from that.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

so evo broke ground? alright!

[LAMetroGuy]

LA 11 10 05
IT'S IN THE WATER
Peter Slatin

At the Urban Land Institute's annual meeting in Los Angeles last week, familiar themes of increasing sprawl and shrinking margins melded with less standard discussions of broader concerns such as emerging demographic trends and natural resource and land management. Although presented as concerns for future-oriented thinkers, there was, fortunately, an insistent undercurrent that hinted that right now is the moment to squarely face these concerns.

The problems and prospects for urban living were underscored by the very real challenge for the host city of meeting the needs of up to 8,000 demanding attendees in an area of the city – downtown – that can reasonably accommodate half that number. Downtown LA has no great convention hotel; the city's best hotels are in Beverly Hills, Century City, Hollywood and Santa Monica, all at least 20 to 45 minutes away from the convention center, which is around the corner from Staples Center, if traffic conditions are favorable. (Of course, Manhattan, where ULI met in 2004, has no decent hotels near the Jacob Javits Convention Center, which is marooned along the Hudson River many long and windswept blocks from the CBD.)

But if the institute waits just another five years to bring another meeting to LA, it may find a very different story. Staples itself – where U2 was playing on two of the four nights that ULI was in session and the Lakers were ensconced on a third – is slated to serve as the catalyst for a vast mixed-use development, known as LA Live, in the area around the convention center and arena spearheaded by Staples' developer and owner, Anschutz Entertainment Group.

Trucks could be seen carting dirt away from parts of the site where two major components of the new, $2 billion district will rise; an 1.100-room Hilton convention center hotel, which will get $177 million in aid from the city, and a 7,100-seat Nokia theater for live performances. Also planned are six blocks of entertainment-oriented restaurants and retail, including an ESPN Zone; ESPN wil also have its West Coast HQ on site. AEG has sold off strategic lots to developers who are planning condos. According to statistics from the Central City Association, a downtown BID, some 5,100 new housing units have been built since 2000 and another 7,500 are in some stage of planning.
The Anschutz project has a jump on Related's Grand Avenue Development Project, in planning for a major stretch on the other edge of the downtown business district.

If all goes well in the development of LA Live and the myriad other major and minor projects percolating through downtown Los Angeles, it's likely that the next time ULI chooses the city for its annual meeting, conventiongoers won't face the situation described by Institutional Real Estate's Steve Felix in his wonderful weekly On the Road letter last Friday: "I ended up staying at the Best Western Hotel instead of the conference site hotel. If The Mayfair is considered an 'overflow' hotel for any convention, there’s a problem. It’s no longer historic for the original reasons. It’s been a long time since I stayed anywhere with bathrooms so small that you have to sit at an angle when you’re doing your business. And sharing an elevator with an apparent drug addict, who is living as a subsidized transient in the hotel, is not my idea of a good time."

CAPITAL IDEAS
Although Steve and many others, including Your Correspondent in his hotel room at the 80-year-old, shabby-chic Figueroa Hotel, grappled with too-small bathrooms, we also were able to place our temporary problems in perspective. Sobering presentations about those with little everyday access to plumbing and the very real threat to our own excellent infrastructure systems from changes to sea level that could literally swamp coastal areas in coming decades commanded our attention more than our hotels' shortcomings. Third World property-rights advocate Hernando de Soto, in his breakfast speech on the final day of the conference, used the parallel tragedies of the Dec. 26, 2004 tsunami and Hurricane Katrina to make the point that ownership – and proof of ownership, once deeds and titles have been recovered and physically restored – will make it possible (although not easy) for citizens in New Orleans and other areas affected by Katrina to demonstrate the validity of insurance or other claims for redress. On the other hand, in less developed countries such as Sri Lanka and Indonesia, where paper property titles are far less common, owners typically have little recourse to everything from insurance to protection from illegal, but improvable, appropriation of their holdings. And property rights, noted de Soto, open the door to credit, which opens the door in turn to capital. Without proof of collateral, credit doesn't exist.
(A subsequent panel on investing in Latin America took this discussion from the individual to the national level. Along with giving case histories of their own investments in resorts, industrial properties and multifamily projects, the panelists delved into the questions and opportunities of investment-grade nations, such as Chile and Mexico, and those that have not yet achieved that status, such as Argentina.)
Refreshingly, de Soto had clearly taken his responsibility to his audience to heart. He acknowledged being unaccustomed to speaking to a U.S. audience, and said his preparations for the speech included a meeting with Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in which he attempted to give Greenspan a Third World perspective on recovery from disaster in the absence of credit and capital. De Soto's central point, that property rights lead to credit, and credit to capital, met an unsurprisingly enthusiastic reception from the institute.


ON THE WATER FRONT


Another well-received presentation, by former Arizona Governor Bruce Babbitt, who served as Secretary of the Interior under President Clinton, indicated that the typically conservative-leaning ULI audience is taking conservation issues seriously. Babbitt, who was joined by EDAW CEO Joe Brow, was touting his new book, Cities in the Wilderness, published by the nonprofit Island Press. And he did so, putting forth a call for a national land management planning strategy. It's primary goal, he said, would be to confront the challenges and dangers posed by widely accepted projections of a two-to-four-foot rise in sea level by the end of the century. Naturally, the immediate legacy of Katrina gave special relevance to his remarks. He further noted that 50% of Louisiana's homes are no higher than three feet above sea level. And planning for the future in the region, he said, should acknowledge the reality that New Orleans itself will become an island.

Babbitt's call for planning reform – for comprehensive planning of any sort, especially with an eye toward coastal land management – dovetailed paradoxically with findings outlined in Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2006, published by PricewaterhouseCoopers and ULI and edited by Jonathan Miller. ET 2006 reported that coastal cities are where the action is. "These are the prime places, the global pathways," Miller told The Slatin Report by telephone. "They are going to be the best places to invest, the most stable markets, where most of the economic activity in the country will be centered."
That doesn't mean that officials and investors don't need to be cognizatit of climate change, even as they consider how high and how quickly the waters might rise in coming decades. Babbitt's main point is as sound as it is sure to be controversial, however: Measures should be taken at the federal level to encourage comprehensive land planning. While states should not be required to participate in the process or to follow federal recommendations, certain kinds of federal aid should be "conditional" on their doing so.

Whether Babbitt's proposals float or not is almost beside the point. What is important is that they be heard and spur a broader and deeper examination of the issues at hand and what can and should be done. For organizations such as the Urban Land Institute to participate in the dialogue is commendable. Their next move should be to assist Babbitt to develop concrete mechanisms for mixing the conservation and planning agenda with the development world.

[citywatch]

IT'S IN THE WATER
Peter Slatin

Trucks could be seen carting dirt away from parts of the site where two major components of the new, $2 billion district will rise; an 1.100-room Hilton convention center hotel, which will get $177 million in aid from the city, and a 7,100-seat Nokia theater for live performances.
I sure wish the hotel was a part of phase one. The proj will need as much synergy as possible, & so if the Nokia theater is the first new bldg to be completed in about 2 yrs, or around late 2007-early 08, & if it stands by itself for several months or, worse, even a few yrs, after that, that won't be as good as having all the phases of LA Live finished around the same time.

It's good that talk about a possible lawsuit against the Hilton has been settled, but I'm under the impression that the devlprs still won't start work on the hotel/condos until late in 2006. I hope that changes, & the timeline is made a lot faster.


described by Institutional Real Estate's Steve Felix in his wonderful weekly On the Road letter last Friday: "I ended up staying at the Best Western Hotel instead of the conference site hotel. If The Mayfair is considered an 'overflow' hotel for any convention, there’s a problem. It’s no longer historic for the original reasons. It’s been a long time since I stayed anywhere with bathrooms so small that you have to sit at an angle when you’re doing your business. And sharing an elevator with an apparent drug addict, who is living as a subsidized transient in the hotel, is not my idea of a good time."
Ppl throughout the US read things like this & it's no surprise they & their organizations have avoided even the idea of holding their conventions in LA, much less at least giving it serious consideration. That's why DT interest groups, & ppl interested in the hood in general, should have been a lot less patient with the pace of change from a long, long time ago. IOW, not be like that former director of the CRA who several yrs ago said that big devlpt or major new projs in DT were a thing of the past, & no longer made sense or were relevant.

[LAMetroGuy]

I just heard that the 2nd William & Dame project will break ground on June 2006... two 30 story towers on the South East corner of 12th and Fig.

[LosAngelesBeauty]

so evo broke ground? alright!


No, I was just walking over "Evo" yesterday on a hard-hat tour. It's supposed to break ground next month.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

I just heard that the 2nd William & Dame project will break ground on June 2006... two 30 story towers on the South East corner of 12th and Fig.

where did you hear this? that would mean Venture and This project will break ground at the same time!

Also, didnt LAB say that it was two 34 story buildings with a possibility of a 60+?

[LAMetroGuy]

I just heard that the 2nd William & Dame project will break ground on June 2006... two 30 story towers on the South East corner of 12th and Fig.

where did you hear this? that would mean Venture and This project will break ground at the same time!

Also, didnt LAB say that it was two 34 story buildings with a possibility of a 60+?

I emailed the senior project manager at Williams & Dame and he replied with that date. With regard to the height, I meant 34 story towers... not 30. He just mentioned two towers.

[bobcat]

June is still far off and lots of things can happen between now and then. The housing market is showing signs of slowing so we'll have to see what happens.

[LAMetroGuy]

Housing market is showing signs of slowing but that slowing is really averaged throughout the country... you can still have micro-environments which are strong from a housing perspective... demand for urban locations is hot and I doubt that 6 months will make a difference... looking at the big picture 6 months is a blip and won't affect determined projects.... LA live is happening and that's all that really matters in that particular environment.

[bobcat]

When housing slows down nationally it tends to affect all markets, however, because lenders start to get tighter (no more interest only loans) and buyers are more cautious. Parts of New England are already experiencing year over year declines in home prices and other cities are experiencing sharp declines in sales.

That said, South Park will probably do ok because of l.a. live, but projects in the vicinity are not a slam dunk by any means. Real estate can turn on a dime, and I just wanted to add a word of caution because I think lots of people are living in denial about the housing bubble.

[bobcat]

.

[LAMetroGuy]

When housing slows down nationally it tends to affect all markets

Right, tends to.. but not always.

Denial of housing bubble???

The truth is that the only reason prices are starting to settle is due to the fact that there are a lot more houses for sale and buyers now have more options whereas before... they had no options and were forced to buy at a higher price.

This will not affect, in my opinion, the housing in downtown LA... especially the new high-rise condos. Even with all the new projects down the pipeline... the supply is still short of the demand... they will sell. No housing bubble here!

[bobcat]

Denial of housing bubble???



3 words: Interest Only Loans

The number of interest only loans out there is ridiculous. People are getting mortgages and only barely able to pay the interest on them. Once they have to start paying principal they will be in the deep doo doo.

[RAlossi]

And then I'll come along and pick up some property for a lot less than I would now =)

[bobcat]

And then I'll come along and pick up some property for a lot less than I would now =)

Haha, that's kinda what I'm thinking, too! :D

[LAMetroGuy]

Statistically, the interest only loans make up such a small percentage of loans that are out on the market… only those who are paranoid make a big deal over it. In addition, for a large percentage of interest only loans, any risk is mitigated through appreciation so I’m not terribly worried about it. Also, defaulting interest only loans will not affect the housing market in downtown LA… it is too unique and very fastidious underwriters will underwrite all these loans. So, to recap… not all interest only loans will default, those that do the risk is properly mitigated… and lastly… overall this will have little effect to our beloved downtown LA!

[LAMetroGuy]

I just heard that the 2nd William & Dame project will break ground on June 2006... two 30+ story towers on the South East corner of 12th and Fig.

I also forgot to mention, the PM from Williams & Dame said that they already have entitlements for their site whereas KB Urban/Lennar are still working through that process.

So, it is interesting that KB Urban/Lennar had a big press release for Fig Central and W&D hasn't had one for theirs... yet. :crazy:

[kaneui]

All previous announcements I've read said the completion of the LA Live Hilton has not been promised until 2010; so I figure the hotel construction won't start until late 2007 or early 2008. Under that time frame, it will be several more years before the hotel will boost the convention center's business, which is a shame.

(For comparison, Phoenix's new 1,000-room convention center hotel announced last year is scheduled to break ground in February, with a projected opening in October, 2008.)

[citywatch]

so I figure the hotel construction won't start until late 2007 or early 2008. Under that time frame, it will be several more years before the hotel will boost the convention center's business, which is a shame.
And that's without the devlpr now even having to worry about a possible lawsuit. I'm not sure why the schedule has to be so slow, but I don't think the fact that hotels in the hood have been underbooked for yrs & yrs makes things any easier.

It's too bad the pace of change wasn't a lot faster yrs ago, because if what's going on today had occurred in the early 1990s or 1980s, or 70s, it's possible the hood wouldn't have gotten such a bad reputation, & in turn wouldn't have lost a lot of ppl who'd otherwise want to stay in DT or hold conventions there.

[edluva]

a housing slowdown will affect every market, including la's. that's a fact.

[RAlossi]

I think he's stating that in general, LA's market will be affected, but the reasons that DTLA is doing well isn't going to be overcome by a housing slowdown.

[edluva]

the reasons dtla's market is doing well is precisely because of the national market. la isn't doing anything unique that would immunize it from a nationwide slowdown. but either way, that's not to say that housing won't continue to be built downtown. it always has been built there - just, at what rate?

[RAlossi]

I don't know -- I think that the fact that DTLA is doing well is not only because of the national housing market, but also because there is a huge demand for that type of housing -- close to transit, jobs, cultural facilities. Lots of people are tired of living in single-family homes out in the Valley.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

I don't know -- I think that the fact that DTLA is doing well is not only because of the national housing market, but also because there is a huge demand for that type of housing -- close to transit, jobs, cultural facilities. Lots of people are tired of living in single-family homes out in the Valley.

Bingo!

[edluva]

^i hope so. the national housing market is powerful. but time will tell if la's demand for transit oriented living will be strong enough to continue the million dollar, 40 story condo building frenzy well into recession.

[citywatch]

I can't forget that it was only as recently as 1999 or 2000 that many devlprs thought GH Palmer was crazy for building his apt bldgs in DT, or that it was impossible to build highrise condo or apt projs in the hood because the rate of return would be too low. I remember this being said well after a lot of major devlpt already was in the pipeline or under construction in other cities.

I hope the situation really has turned around in a permanent way, but it's also good to be cautious because of the idea that easy comes, easy goes.

[bobcat]

I don't know -- I think that the fact that DTLA is doing well is not only because of the national housing market, but also because there is a huge demand for that type of housing -- close to transit, jobs, cultural facilities. Lots of people are tired of living in single-family homes out in the Valley.

I agree. DTLA is doing well because of a national trend as well as local reasons. If the national market tanks it will be up to the local conditions to help prop up the market.

[bobcat]

Statistically, the interest only loans make up such a small percentage of loans that are out on the market… only those who are paranoid make a big deal over it.

:hilarious

Calif. household income lags red-hot home prices

1 November 2005
07:00 pm
Reuters News
English
(c) 2005 Reuters Limited

SAN FRANCISCO, Nov 1 (Reuters) - A median-income household in California falls $73,810 short of the income level needed to buy a median-priced home in the state's overheated housing market, according to a report released on Tuesday.

The California Association of Realtors' report underscored a dramatic and widening gap between household income and home prices in the Golden State, where property prices have soared in recent years amid strong demand as buyers snapped up low mortgage interest rates to buy homes for the first time or to trade up.

Median household income in California in the third quarter was $54,140, well below the $127,590 in income needed to qualify to buy a median-priced, single family home at $545,910 with a 20 percent downpayment and a monthly payment for principal, interest, taxes and insurance that is no more than 30 percent of household income, according to the report.

"On a year-over-year basis, home prices were up 18 percent and household income was up 2.3 percent, so the income gap is up 33 percent," said Leslie Appleton-Young, the chief economist of the realtors' group.

"It's just getting harder and harder to buy a home and potential buyers are getting squeezed out of the California marketplace, or least out of coastal areas," she said.

The San Francisco Bay area had the biggest income gap of any region in California in the third quarter: $100,670.

Median household income there in the third quarter was $68,520, or $100,670 less than the required income of $169,180 to qualify to buy a median-priced home in the region that cost $721,850.

To purchase homes in California home buyers have been increasingly turning to adjustable-rate mortgage products from 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loans.

Analysts are concerned many home owners with adjustable-rate mortgages could be at risk as interest rates rise and the loans readjust upward, forcing monthly mortgage payments to jump.

Two of three mortgage loans used to buy homes in California in the first eight months of 2005 were adjustable-rate loans, and more than 80 percent of those loans were interest-only loans, said Bob Visini, a spokesman for LoanPerformance, a unit of data provider First American Corp.

[colemonkee]

So according to this, about 53.36% of home loans in California in the first six months of 2005 were interest only adjustable rate loans. That actually sounds about right. Keep in mind that only 20% of an interest only loan is adjustable, though. The other 80% is usually fixed, unless you have below average credit.

Still, that 53% probably only makes up about 3-4% of all outstanding home loans in the state of California, so LAMG wasn't off in his statement. So this "panic" over people defaulting en mass and causing a real estate market crash is not only statistically flawed, it's at least 4 1/2 years away barring a major recession (almost all interest-only loans are five-year). Any market crashes are going to have to be caused by a much greater economic trend than interest-only loan defaults.

[LAMetroGuy]

Statistically, the interest only loans make up such a small percentage of loans that are out on the market… only those who are paranoid make a big deal over it.

:hilarious

Calif. household income lags red-hot home prices

Two of three mortgage loans used to buy homes in California in the first eight months of 2005 were adjustable-rate loans, and more than 80 percent of those loans were interest-only loans, said Bob Visini, a spokesman for LoanPerformance, a unit of data provider First American Corp.

Maybe you didn't read my post, I said "on the market" not those that were originated druing the first 8 months of 2005.

:no:

[LAMetroGuy]

So according to this, about 53.36% of home loans in California in the first six months of 2005 were interest only adjustable rate loans. That actually sounds about right. Keep in mind that only 20% of an interest only loan is adjustable, though. The other 80% is usually fixed, unless you have below average credit.

Still, that 53% probably only makes up about 3-4% of all outstanding home loans in the state of California, so LAMG wasn't off in his statement. So this "panic" over people defaulting en mass and causing a real estate market crash is not only statistically flawed, it's at least 4 1/2 years away barring a major recession (almost all interest-only loans are five-year). Any market crashes are going to have to be caused by a much greater economic trend than interest-only loan defaults.

Wow, couldn't have said it better myself.... :D

[bobcat]

I don't know where you got the 3-4% number and I would be interested in the data if you could provide them, but of course these numbers are only the IO loans from the first 6 months of 2005 and don't the include numbers from other periods.

Any market crashes are going to have to be caused by a much greater economic trend than interest-only loan defaults.

Loan defaults are only one of consequences. There's the reduction in employment in the construction, real estate, and related industries. And most importantly lower consumer confidence and spending. Taken together these could be enough to derail the economy.

[LAMetroGuy]

these numbers are only the IO loans from the first 6 months of 2005 and don't the include numbers from other periods.

you mean 8 months, regardless... the IO trend was higher in 2005 than in past years... so your numbers will diminish.

[citywatch]

Regardless of the overall economy today or in 2006, inc housing prices & mortgages, DT has been in kind of a holding pattern, or maybe in its own bubble (but one that's always been popping) for a long time.

What I mean is that the hood's hotels & office bldgs have been trailing comparable locations elsewhere, & many of the stores around the Fig corridor haven't done too well. The convention ctr is notorious for never getting enough bookings & until not long ago there was limited demand for new condos & apts & restaurants.

Then, more recently & finally!, Staples Ctr arrived, which was followed by Gilmore's OBD apt bldgs & Palmer's apt devlpt, followed by more fill-in projs, inc new restaurants open for a relatively short time, & apt projs like the Pegasus or the LT Lofts. That's where things stand today.

I think we got to keep a close eye on trends from before & after today, to make sure that the coma everything was in over 7 to 8 yrs ago is never allowed to happen again in the future. IOW, if things go very well over the next few yrs, FANTASTIC! But if some of the bad habits or problems of the past start to creep in again, then that, instead of making ppl in DT sad & discouraged, should make everyone in the hood even more demanding.

So if new apt or condo bldgs end up half empty, everyone should yell, get that damn deadzone parking lot next door cleaned up!!! If LA Live isn't as successful as its owners hope it will be, everyone should holler, get that raunchy site next door fixed up ASAP, & get that lot across the street replaced with something better!!! Or if Grand Ave takes too long to be completed, then everyone should yell, get rid of that damn graffiti, litter & weeds down the slope near Hill St!!!

I don't want to see a return to the time when too many ppl in LA said, who cares??...the way things are today is good enough. Or, let's think small & forget the big stuff. Or don't nitpick over the screw ups because they don't matter.

[citywatch]

Holy crap!!! If ppl in desert baked, resortville Las Vegas, which traditionally has been more burban than urban (& why not? after all, there's always been alot more sand there than ppl) are getting all this new devlpt (http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?threadid=50286)-----& I'm referring only to highrise apt or condo bldgs, & not casinos-----then we in LA better get no less.

OK, now I'm gonna be really pissed if projs like the Medallion & the Sonni Astani proj at 9th & Fig, & the Williams & Dame proj, & the KB Urban/Lennar proj, & the Related Cos proj (& not just the one on Bunker Hill but the big one proposed for Little Tokyo too), etc, etc, don't see the light of day.

[colemonkee]

I don't know where you got the 3-4% number and I would be interested in the data if you could provide them, but of course these numbers are only the IO loans from the first 6 months of 2005 and don't the include numbers from other periods.

That 3-4% was a VERY rough estimate of the percentage of outstanding mortgages that started in the first 8 months of 2005 as a percentage of the total loans that are currently being repaid in California, taking in an average mortgage cycle of 25 years (most mortage loans are 30 years). You have to consider that a loan originated in 1981 is still "outstanding", meaning it's still in repayment mode and could technically default. This estimate assumes an undefined growth rate year over year in the number of loans issued, plus has to take into consideration refi's, etc. Once again, this was VERY rough, and is probably a little high. But it's a good starting point.


Loan defaults are only one of consequences. There's the reduction in employment in the construction, real estate, and related industries. And most importantly lower consumer confidence and spending. Taken together these could be enough to derail the economy.

That is correct. But reductions in employment of the construction and real estate industries is purely speculative at this point. These trends would be caused by a bubble bursting, not the cause of a bubble. Currently both of these industries are very healthy around the country, particularly construction. Keep in mind that steel prices are coming down from record highs, which helps the construction industry.

As for lower consumer confidence and spending, that's also speculative. Currently those trends are due largely to high energy prices, one of which is retreating, and should retreat for the remainder of the year (baring any political fiascos, terrorist acts or natural disasters that adversely affect supplies). If energy prices can continue to dip, we might see consumer confidence and spending rise a bit, at least in the short term for the Holidays. Of course, it's anyone's guess after that...

[bobcat]

That is correct. But reductions in employment of the construction and real estate industries is purely speculative at this point. These trends would be caused by a bubble bursting, not the cause of a bubble.

I was too tired last night and wasn't able to really explain my position clearly. IMO, the cause of the overheated housing market was the historically low interest rates combined with loose lending practices, which allowed far too many people to buy homes which they would not have been able to under normal circumstances. This has artificially inflated home prices and fueled rampant speculation, which in turn has continued to drive up prices to unsustainable levels. Home builders, of course, responded by continuing to provide more product and this has resulted in an increase in jobs in the construction, real estate, mortgage finance, and related sectors.

Here's what I think could happen. As interest rates rise and lending practices tighten up, the pool of qualified buyers shrinks and the value of homes they can afford diminishes, all at a time of increasing inventories. This provides downward pressure on home prices and smaller profits for developers, resulting in widespread job losses in the construction and real estate industries.



As for lower consumer confidence and spending, that's also speculative. Currently those trends are due largely to high energy prices, one of which is retreating, and should retreat for the remainder of the year (baring any political fiascos, terrorist acts or natural disasters that adversely affect supplies). If energy prices can continue to dip, we might see consumer confidence and spending rise a bit, at least in the short term for the Holidays. Of course, it's anyone's guess after that...

Don't underestimate the Wealth Effect. There are a lot of folks who look at their homes and say, "Gee, my house just increased in value by $50,000. I think I'll go on a trip to Hawaii." Or, "Gee, my house went up by $150,000, so I think I'll go buy a car." If home prices start falling on a widespread basis, this type of discretionary spending will dry up very quickly.

[colemonkee]

^ You make very good points. The rampant speculation has been largely quelled downtown in recent months, primarily due to the slowdown in appreciation rates and, to a lesser extent, builders requiring someone to sign a binding agreement that they will inhabit the unit for at least 12 months. This is a good thing. This removes most of these people in this particular submarket, also removing one of the major sources of artificial inflation. The other source - loose lending practices - we'll really have to wait and see on how it effects the housing market both county wide and in downtown specifically.

[LAMetroGuy]

I guess it all depends.. for those that go and buy a car and take a vacation... its not a big deal if they plan on staying in their house for the next 5 to 10 years... if they plan to sell and take a profit while prices stabalize... that's another story. In the end, real estate is unpredictable... it is a risk but in the long run... you can come out ahead.

[katfam]

Elleven has begun selling storage spaces and parking spaces for those who don't want to have to park tandem. You can get 2 non-tandem parking spaces for $15,000. Not sure on the storage spaces yet.

Every unit already comes with 1 or 2 space but its a great upgrade option to get to buy and choose the location of your own spaces if you want.

[colemonkee]

I went by the site and the sales center yesterday. I got photos of Evo renderings as well as construction updates which I will post later tonight or tomorrow night. Evo has ceremoniously "broken ground", but not in reality. They have, however, brought a lot of construction materials to the site, so actual groundbreaking may be right around the corner.

$15,000 for two spaces is better than 1100 Wilshire's spots, but still too expensive if you ask me. Guess that's the price we pay for having cars.

[citywatch]

When I read about the new cost of, & I guess the need to have, valet parking at your Higgins bldg, I was reminded again that ppl in DT, or certain other hoods elsewhere, need at least X dollars of income to come out ahead each month.

[edkao]

So how does the pricing of the parking spaces work exactly? Units with 2 parking spaces gets tandem spaces? So you can upgrade from 2 tandem to 2 non-tandem for $15,000? Is that how it works? What if you have 1 space and want another, what does that cost?

Did you receive an email from Elleven about the storage and parking? Or is this info available at the sales office?

Thanks, Ed

[katfam]

Ed,

First off, are you a resident of Elleven? If you are, HI NEIGHBOR!!

Now singles and 1 bedroom units will come with 1 parking space and 2 bedrooms and up will have 2 tandem spaces. They are giving everyone options in the 2 bedrooms a choice to 'upgrade' to non-tandem spaces, though i'm sure the space is limited and is going down some type of order. I am not sure on the 1 bedrooms but I have heard them say that everyone will be able to purchase another space.

In terms of the storage spaces, I haven't gotten offical prices but I was given estimates of 10,000-15,000. These storage units are walled in (not that fence wall) and are added to the square feet of your unit.

[sf_eddo]

from http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-downtown22nov22,0,7024116,full.story

THE STATE
Living Gets Loftier in Downtown L.A.
By Cara Mia DiMassa, Times Staff Writer


Pedro Galindo moved into the Higgins Building four years ago, part of the first wave of urban adventurers who set roots in the fledging loft district north of skid row.

Back then, the 24-year-old substitute teacher recalls, the converted 1910 beaux-arts office tower had a definite vibe.

"The coolest people were here. There were rooftop parties and barbecues," he said. "It was a very social building. You would have parties every weekend."

That began to change two years ago, when the Higgins converted from apartments to condos, with units now selling for up to $700,000.

The new crop of resident-owners — who include Galindo and his sister, Natalia, who bought the unit they were renting — hired a concierge to provide "enhanced security" for the building. The new owners brought in a valet to park their cars at a nearby lot. Galindo said the social scene took a hit, too, as the building seemed to become more insular.

"I think the last get-together we had was four or five months ago," he said.

What happened at the Higgins speaks to a growing gap among those who are rapidly changing the face of downtown Los Angeles.

The recent wave of downtown residents began about six years ago and consisted mostly of renters taking a chance on the first crop of converted lofts in the Old Bank district. They were lured by reasonable rents and the prospect of living in an urban environment.

But much of the residential development since has been condos, changing downtown's residential population. With prices rising, many new residents are making a bet that downtown will continue to gentrify, homelessness and crime will decline and more upscale retail shops will open. In other words, they see living downtown as an investment.

"As prices have increased and amenities have increased, there is no question you are seeing a demographic shift," said Tom Cody, a principal in the South Group, which is building three upscale residential projects in the South Park area of downtown, near Staples Center.

"The first generations of pioneers and early adopters were going on faith that certain things were going to come," he said. "The lifestyle is actually there now. Only now are you going to see people who are leaving decent neighborhoods and … choosing downtown."

Indeed, the days of the spartan industrial loft are over. Developers say downtown buyers are demanding high-end amenities, including rooftop pools, 24-hour doormen-security guards and elaborate gyms.

Urban planners say Los Angeles' demographic shift is similar to changes seen in urban neighborhoods in San Diego, Denver, Chicago and Washington, D.C.

The first adopters in struggling downtowns are often artists and young professionals — frequently without families — who begin gentrifying an area. They are followed by a wave of more established — and often wealthier — people, including "empty nester" couples typically selling large houses and downsizing with lots of equity to invest in their new condos.

"It's a very classic pattern we are seeing around the country," said John McIlwain, a senior resident fellow at the Urban Land Institute.

Like many residents new to downtown Los Angeles, Frank Weber had been watching the transformation over the last few years.

With residential development booming across the city center, Weber decided it was time to buy. So he recently made a down payment on a studio unit in the trendy Elleven condo tower scheduled to open next year near Staples Center.

Weber, a 51-year-old Los Angeles Police detective, had been living in the suburbs of Riverside County and making a 2 1/2 -hour commute. But his children are grown, and his wife died a few years ago.

"It's appropriate now," he said of the move. "I have always thought downtown areas are nice. I am hoping this one will be just as nice as the others, like New York and San Francisco."

For Qathryn Brehm, the latest influx of residents is both a blessing and a burden.

Brehm, an artist, arrived downtown in 1979, paying $300 a month for a 3,000-square-foot apartment at the corner of 8th and Spring streets. "There were a lot of people moving from all parts," she said. "Downtown was very economical."

Brehm made a life for herself downtown, later moving into the area's burgeoning artists district east of Little Tokyo.

The renaissance, said Brehm, who works in marketing and community relations for the Central City East Assn., which represents business interests in parts of downtown, "was bound to happen…. It's exciting that people are finally using the city to live and work and play."

Even those conflicted by the upscale shift are quick to admit the growing residential population — 24,000 and expected to double by 2015 — is giving those who live downtown a political voice they haven't had before.

Community groups have demanded beefed-up police patrols and successfully fought for a redesign of the new LAPD headquarters, to be built just south of City Hall, to include more open space.

Still, the changes, Brehm said, are squeezing out many of "the people who have been there a long time, who moved there because of the rent and the workspace."

"Everyone loves the amenities, of course," she added, "but it's mostly that when you are an artist, you need larger spaces to work in, at a reasonable rent. Now, the rents are going up and the spaces aren't that big."

That is largely because of the economics of creating lofts. Developers have found that buying historic buildings and rehabbing them as lofts is so costly that the only way to make money back is to quickly sell the units. And the costs of old buildings and land are rising as downtown becomes more popular.

The shift is becoming increasingly evident, said five-year loft resident Marie Condron, a founder of the popular Internet listserv newdowntown, where residents talk about local issues and offer tips on shopping and services.

She too sees a divide between the renters and the buyers. "The people who are buying are investing in a hot market," she said. "The renters are more here for the community and the neighborhood."

Dan Parker, 33, decided to buy a unit at 1100 Wilshire, a 37-story onetime office tower that is being converted into high-end condos, because he believes prices will continue to rise.

Parker, a software engineer, lives in Hollywood but is making the move east because of all the projects planned for downtown, especially L.A. Live, a $1.7-billion retail and entertainment sector that has broken ground near Staples Center.

He said he believes he's getting in on the ground floor of something big.

"I think property will be worth more in five to 10 years," Parker said.

Daniel Abas, 26, is also moving to 1100 Wilshire after living for several years in the Higgins Building. The Higgins Building attracted "people who can rough it," Abas said, and "1100 is going to attract a more refined audience who enjoys an urban lifestyle."

Abas, an entrepreneur, predicts that L.A. Live and other projects in the works will appeal to a new generation of residents who thus far have been hesitant.

"The third wave will be the people who come along with the services," he said. "All these new services — restaurants and dry cleaners — will ultimately provide them with an L.A. lifestyle that we have all become accustomed to, with all the perks."

Ownership has changed Galindo's perspective on downtown. He's been involved in the movement to push for a public park in the Civic Center area. And he's joined his building's condo board.

"We have become very invested in seeing downtown L.A. thrive," he said. "Before, I used to think L.A. is a dump. Now I am very optimistic."

[colemonkee]

Here's some pics of Evo renders I got while visiting the South sales center on Sunday.

The most common rendering, I think, looking northwest along Grand Ave. The pic's kind of blurry, not sure what happened here.

http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/4509/evo17wo.jpg

Here's a rendering looking south from what seems like the roof of Luma.

http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/6307/evo25me.jpg

And finally, a detail of the street scene along Grand Ave.

http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/6678/evo31ji.jpg

In other news, I talked to the sales guy, and ground has ceremoniously been broken on this, but real construction has not started. For verification that construction has not actually started, you'll have to check the Downtown LA Rundown thread. ;)

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

i like it! thanks. did you ask about the other project by any chance?

[colemonkee]

Yes. "Phases 4 and 5", as the sales guy called them, are the two 30 story towers along Fig. The designs you saw in the LA Live model a while back are not final, but pretty much what we're going to get design-wise. He didn't have any other details.

This design choice is a disappointment, IMO, because this is basically a recycle of the design for the John Ross Tower that Williams & Dame is building in Portland, OR. It's my view that buildings should be designed with their surroundings in mind, not copied from designs for other cities. And we're getting two of them. Oh well, at least Williams & Dame has their shit together and these will most likely get built.

He also mentioned a "Phase 6" which he said would be larger than the John Ross copycat towers, most likely in the 40-story range, but he said even that was pure speculation. So, there's more to come from South Group that we have not seen yet.

[ksep]

nice renderings, but they could have shown the groundfloor retail a little clearer and detailed - there is retail, right?
thanx for posting this.

[colemonkee]

^ I think it's zoned for office/retail, meaning that they're targeting business like real estate brokers, architects, law offices, or smaller retail establishments (like dry cleaners) for the Grand Ave. side. That's how Elleven is, and that's how Evo is, if I'm not mistaken. As for the 12th Street side, I'm not sure.

As far as traditional retail is concerned (restaurants, shopping), they're really focusing that along 11th and Hope Streets.

[LAMetroGuy]

colemonkee... great find! Thanks for sharing. I am very happy that W&D is getting things done... I think they should be a bench mark that all developers should model. Plan it, build it, fill it, live it!

[RBR]

Evo looks great, nice update.

[katfam]

Colmonkee is right... South is zoned for office/retail. I spoke about it with sales center. They said they are looking into getting it rezoned.

I sort of like the idea of office/retail. It will keep the area somewhat quiet as there is tons of future retail only 2 blocks away.

[katfam]

Check out the South E-News Letter for November:

November Newsletter from South (http://exploresouthgroup.com/enews/11/)

Everything is coming together fast now. Found out that storage spaces in Elleven are going for around $250 a square foot and starting at $9,000 and up.

[Luma07]

Check out the South E-News Letter for November:

November Newsletter from South (http://exploresouthgroup.com/enews/11/)

Everything is coming together fast now. Found out that storage spaces in Elleven are going for around $250 a square foot and starting at $9,000 and up.


Hey there katfam! Thanks for all the updates.

Have you heard anything about parking for people buying into Luma? Will pricing be the same for Luma as Elleven? I have a reservation on a one-bdrm unit...but will definitely need another space.

[bobcat]

Somehow this news release got overlooked:

The South Group Announces Plans for New "Figueroa South" Residential Development Within the "South" Community
Los Angeles - October 27, 2005 - Two 34-story luxury condo towers will distinguish "Figueroa South," the newest planned development of The South Group, already a leader in the transformation of downtown's South Park district with the success of Elleven, Luma and Evo, Los Angeles' first new-construction, ground-up condominiums in 20 years.

The South Group's innovative residential buildings will be within a vibrant streetscape full of retail shops and services, located directly across the street from the Staples Center and AEG's "LA Live" the Sports and Entertainment District. The project is expected to be in the center of an active pedestrian area that will feature plazas, paseos, fountains and gardens.

Figueroa South's East Tower will be at 624 West 12th St.; the West Tower at 1200 South Figueroa. The fourth and fifth phases continue The South Group's development of its community, called "South."

With its new mixed use developments - Elleven, Luma, Evo and the properties of Figueroa South – South will integrate density and a vibrant, 24-hour neighborhood that incorporates green space, areas for community gatherings and architecture that activates the street, bringing the concept of "neighborhood" to the area vs. a series of buildings.

Each 34-story tower will contain 324 condominium homes; 977 parking spaces will be dedicated for residents. Construction is set to begin in May; anticipated occupancy is in 2008.

The buildings will incorporate sustainable materials; energy-efficient construction techniques and amenities are expected to earn a LEED (Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design) certification from the U. S. Green Building Council.

Figueroa South's residential amenities will include:

Floor plans from 800 - 4500 square feet
Hardwood floors and wood cabinetry; stainless steel appliances; stone slab kitchen countertops, designer fixtures
Decks and Juliet balconies
Large walk-in closets
Concierge service and valet drop off (at 12 St.)
Roof terrace plaza with lap pool, gardens and amenities
Rooftop viewing deck on each tower
Fully covered by WiFi
The 119,000 square foot site was purchased for $23.5 million from AEG. Lehman Brothers is both the lender and the majority equity partner. Howard S. Wright is the General Contractor and GBD Architects, Inc., and TVA Architects, Inc. will handle the project as a joint venture. Other team members include The Michota Co., Craig Lawson & Co., Sage Advisors, Piper Rudnick, The Mobility Group, KPFF, Ken Reizes and ahbe Landscape Architects.

"The public clearly anticipates the excitement and convenience of downtown living," said Tom Cody, The South Group principal. "Both Elleven and Luma, still under construction, sold out within hours of their release!"

[katfam]

HEY LUMA07 :hug:

Nice to meet a future neighbor. I'm haven't heard any on Luma and I feel you will have to wait a while to find out as they do everything in stages. I assume the prices will be somewhat on track with Elleven but higher as each phase gets more expensive.

Luma is a great building and glad to have it as part of my view. (I'm in the 2/2 Northwest corner unit of Elleven)

[Luma07]

HEY LUMA07 :hug:

Nice to meet a future neighbor. I'm haven't heard any on Luma and I feel you will have to wait a while to find out as they do everything in stages. I assume the prices will be somewhat on track with Elleven but higher as each phase gets more expensive.

Luma is a great building and glad to have it as part of my view. (I'm in the 2/2 Northwest corner unit of Elleven)


Thanks for the warm welcome!

I guess I'm feeling like things are not happening quick enough! I'm really excited about living downtown---so much so that I'm thinking about renting an apartment down there until Luma is ready for move in.

[colemonkee]

34 stories, huh? That's great. I always heard of these as 30 stories, but 34 is a welcome addition. It's also nice to hear that they plan on having ground floor retail and and "activated streetscape." But I wouldn't expect any less from South Group, who seems to have their shit together.

Luma07, welcome to the forum, and an early welcome to downtown! Congrats on your new place.

[LosAngelesBeauty]

^ Where do you currently live Luma07?

[katfam]

I understand your pain LUMA07. I have been waiting since last October to move into Elleven and i'm at my breaking point now since I can see my unit and interiors being put in. I lived downtown until last May when I moved up to Hollywood to save money. Ironic, I had to move out of downtown to save money, LOL.

Really seems South is going to be a great community. Gonna me like college all over again, with friends in the buildings, we won't ever have to leave South, LOL.

[Luma07]

Currently I live in Long Beach, have been since '95...in suburb hell. It may be good for some...but definitely not for me. I just can't believe I let myself live here this long!

I was born and raised in LA---lived in the MacArthur Park area until I was 15, then moved to LB, but came back to LA to go to USC.

I'm looking into moving into a building at 4th and Hill (Metro417). I want to be DT by April.

[LosAngelesBeauty]

Let's do a little mini-meet with some new and future downtown residents (and anyone else who wants to come). I'm moving downtown this weekend, so I'm finally a resident as well! :)

I would love to get to know many of you here since we're all on the same boat now!

Let's do something soon!

[bobcat]

^So where will you be living?

[colemonkee]

Congrats, LAB! Let me know when and where the meet is, and I'd be down.

Luma07, if you're a fan of American Apparel, you'll love living at Metro417. There's one opening up one block from you on 5th, just west of Broadway.

[colemonkee]

Also, for all the people living downtown, there's a cool survey you should complete. Once you finish you can view the results. LAB, some of these results might be useful to the DCBID (eg. - I was surprised to see that 40% of responders are Mac users - cough!-getanapplestoredowntown-cough!)

To take the survey, click here (http://www.my3q.com/go.php?url=loftsurvey/85386).

[LosAngelesBeauty]

Hey Cole! I will try to galvanize a small gathering and will probably have it at my place (in the Pegasus, bobcat). :)


Oh btw, I was walking across the street one time and someone was talking on his cell phone and said "Cole Monkey" (it sounded like). I don't know if any of your friends actually refer to you by that, but you must be who he was talking to cuz how many "Cole Monkeys" are there?!

[Luma07]

Congrats, LAB! Let me know when and where the meet is, and I'd be down.

Luma07, if you're a fan of American Apparel, you'll love living at Metro417. There's one opening up one block from you on 5th, just west of Broadway.

YAY! I love their stuff!

Has the pizza place/restaurant near the Higgins bldg opened up yet?

[POLA]

isn't a "coal monkey" a small child used in the industrial age to work in coal mines? Or maybe I'm thinking about the kids they used to carry gun powder. They were called Powder monkeys.

[RBR]

^ lol

Sweet news on 34 story towers, can't believe we missed that newsflash.

[citywatch]

I'm looking into moving into a building at 4th and Hill (Metro417). I want to be DT by April.

I will try to galvanize a small gathering and will probably have it at my place (in the Pegasus, bobcat).

Along with colemonkee that should make 3 active, regular contributors to this board who live in DT---& I'm assuming that luma07 will be more active than latowers is, who I believe may be one of the original SSPers who's lived in the hood, but he or she rarely posts here. Then I'm estimating that katfam, LA/ocman & danparker276 also will be joining the crowd in the next several months, or yr or so.

I'm hoping that will help us get the latest scoops & photos on DT. For instance, what's going on with leasing at metro417 or metlofts, or the Reserve apt bldg? What's the likelihood that the South group's Evo bldg or next proj along Fig will sell as quickly as the Elleven & Luma did?

[katfam]

I'm so there! Its great having you guys and gals to talk to about downtown. Many of my friends are so tired of hearing about it and the daily updates, lol. Luckily I have gotten many people interested in downtown and looking to buy and rent. I used to live at the Orsini and so miss living downtown (been away since April) but i'll be back April 1st for the first day of ELLEVEN MOVE IN's :crazy:

[LosAngelesBeauty]

So, we have colemonkee, katfam, and who else? I can fit a few more in my studio.

[Luma07]

I'm looking into moving into a building at 4th and Hill (Metro417). I want to be DT by April.

I will try to galvanize a small gathering and will probably have it at my place (in the Pegasus, bobcat).

I'm hoping that will help us get the latest scoops & photos on DT. For instance, what's going on with leasing at metro417 or metlofts, or the Reserve apt bldg? What's the likelihood that the South group's Evo bldg or next proj along Fig will sell as quickly as the Elleven & Luma did?

metro417 started leasing in July/August. I took a tour of their units a few weeks ago---they were 20% occupied at the time and expect to be at 50 to 60% by April. They've done a nice job of restoring those builldings and the amenities are great.

[danparker276]

I should be one of the 1st to move into 1100 wilshire cuse I'm on the 17th floor. They said early January, don't think that will happen though, I'd say febuary. They're having a sales event dec 6th, and they're trying to get the deck and infinity pool ready.
I have some updated pics of the construction on my site if anyone's interested.

[colemonkee]

Hey Cole! I will try to galvanize a small gathering and will probably have it at my place (in the Pegasus, bobcat). :)


Oh btw, I was walking across the street one time and someone was talking on his cell phone and said "Cole Monkey" (it sounded like). I don't know if any of your friends actually refer to you by that, but you must be who he was talking to cuz how many "Cole Monkeys" are there?!

Ha! Actually, some of my longer standing friends just call me "monkey", and do so very loudly for some reason. Let me know when the gathering is. I'm in if, schedule permitting, of course.

POLA - funny that you mention coal mines. One of my favorite songs by the Police is "Canary in a Coalmine", mainly because I heard it when I was a little kid and thought that they were saying "Canary and a Coleman". As for the genesis of the screen name, there's no real explanation other than an easy combination of Coleman and monkey, though I like to use the non-standard spellings.

Luma07 - The pizza place at the Higgins Building - Pitfire Pizza - has been open for over a month now, I think. I'm a huge fan and eat there WAY too much. I highly recommend it. There's also a Chinese food restaurant called Loft Wok that should open sometime in February at the Higgins. I'm hoping that some of the retail spaces in the Douglas Building (3rd and Spring) are leased out soon to give us even more choices. Of course, there are a few restaurants (all great, IMO) along 4th and Main, along with a new deli opening up very soon in the courtyard behind Warung Cafe.

danparker276 - I didn't realize that they were planning to move people into 1100 Wilshire that quickly. For some reason I was thinking Spring, around the same time Elleven is scheduled to open. That's good news, though. You'll be joining us soon!

[citywatch]

metro417 started leasing in July/August. I took a tour of their units a few weeks ago---they were 20% occupied at the time and expect to be at 50 to 60% by April. They've done a nice job of restoring those builldings and the amenities are great.
Thanks for the details. However, I was hoping you were going to say that the LA Times article earlier this wk got its stats backwards. I sure wish you could have written "metro417 actually has 70% of its units leased, only 30% vacant". And if the manager predicts at least 50% of their space still will have to be filled even as they get closer to the 1 yr mark, that's not something I'd want to hear from him.

I don't know why there's such a big discrepancy in results between bldgs like metro417 or the newly opened PE lofts, which is closer to 70% than 30, & in a grittier part of DT, no less. Or the bldgs owned by Palmer, which are isolated by fwys, & the Gas Co lofts, which are closer to the action.

After the DCBID's open house earlier this yr, I found out the Gas Co lofts also had more space yet to be leased than what I thought would be true around that time. The bldg's manager predicted in 2004, right after they opened around early 04, that they'd be fully booked by late 04. But when the open house resulted in quite a few new leases at that bldg, I realized they still were considerably below the 100% point even by early 05.

http://files.apts247.com/files/000/000/002/79/news/article5-1.jpg

^ This devlpr's 3rd apt proj in DT, which opened in early 05---or almost 5 yrs after his medici apt bldg was completed----also was fully booked on opening day. That's better than almost no one else in the hood raking in the $$. Still, why the flip flop in results for various apt projs, between the Medici & metro417 or some other new apt bldg?

DT overall is not going to change as fast as I want if bldgs that are as important (& nice) as metro417 or the totally brand new Met Lofts don't get filled at a fast clip.

It's good the PE lofts have done better, or that Gilmore's OBD apt bldgs leased up pretty fast a few yrs ago. And the results for the Higgins or Elleven or the Douglas bldg, & a few others are positive signs. But there still are alot more old bldgs or deadzone sites in the hood that have to be either converted or built on. That's why I'm not thrilled when I learn that each & every one of the new apt or condo projs completed in DT aren't doing really well from the beginning.

[Luma07]

metro417 started leasing in July/August. I took a tour of their units a few weeks ago---they were 20% occupied at the time and expect to be at 50 to 60% by April. They've done a nice job of restoring those builldings and the amenities are great.
Thanks for the details. However, I was hoping you were going to say that the LA Times article earlier this wk got its stats backwards. I sure wish you could have written "metro417 actually has 70% of its units leased, only 30% vacant". And if the manager predicts at least 50% of their space still will have to be filled even as they get closer to the 1 yr mark, that's not something I'd want to hear from him.

I have to admit that the 20% occupancy rate did worry me at first...but the prospect of living downtown right away and the opportunity to still have a variety of apt layouts to choose from in April made me feel a little better. The metro417 people mentioned something about MetLofts having trouble getting their permit for occupancy--So maybe that's part of the hold-up? Cost may be another issue for some--metro417 isn't going to be cheap--but I don't care since I'll only be there until I move into Luma.

The occupancy rates at metro417 just tell me that there are more people that want to buy downtown as opposed to renting. And I'm okay with that---I'd rather see more people buy downtown, stay for the long-run and build up a strong DT community that is interested in making DT a great place to live.

-L07

[LosAngelesBeauty]

^ That's the spirit!

[bobcat]

I don't know why there's such a big discrepancy in results between bldgs like metro417 or the newly opened PE lofts, which is closer to 70% than 30, & in a grittier part of DT, no less. Or the bldgs owned by Palmer, which are isolated by fwys, & the Gas Co lofts, which are closer to the action.



It might be the amenities. For instance, I don't think metro417 has a pool, which seems to be almost mandatory for high end residential nowadays. Or it could be just a simple matter of price. I know the Palmer units have offered move-in incentives in the past.

[Luma07]

I don't know why there's such a big discrepancy in results between bldgs like metro417 or the newly opened PE lofts, which is closer to 70% than 30, & in a grittier part of DT, no less. Or the bldgs owned by Palmer, which are isolated by fwys, & the Gas Co lofts, which are closer to the action.



It might be the amenities. For instance, I don't think metro417 has a pool, which seems to be almost mandatory for high end residential nowadays. Or it could be just a simple matter of price. I know the Palmer units have offered move-in incentives in the past.

metro417 has a small rooftop terrace and a jacuzzi tub. They also have a gym, a screening room connected to a full kitchen, another room with a pool table and a smaller area with a poker table---but no pool. Each unit does have its own washer and dryer which is plus for a rental unit.

[RAlossi]

I don't plan on moving downtown for another year or so. I may move to the Westlake/Echo Park area sooner than that to be close to school though.

[citywatch]

The metro417 people mentioned something about MetLofts having trouble getting their permit for occupancy--So maybe that's part of the hold-up? Cost may be another issue for some--metro417 isn't going to be cheap--but I don't care since I'll only be there until I move into Luma.

If the Pegasus & Gas Co lofts had filled up faster when they opened 1 to 2 (or is it now 3?) yrs ago, then I'd be less bothered at what I've learned about metro417. If that bldg, so far, were an isolated case, that would be one thing. But now I'm wondering if apt projs that are both too expensive & too urbanized won't do too well in the hood. IOW, maybe there's not as much demand in DT when a devlpr is going to be aiming his proj at ppl who normally would be living in the burbs or SaMo or Pasadena, or the type who can handle a City lights or Palmer type bldg but who will avoid renting in an old converted office bldg.

Maybe projs like metro417 or the Gas Co lofts aren't going to be as easy a sell because they're neither fish nor fowl. IOW, maybe they're not cheap or big enough for the artists crowd, who will be OK with places like the PE lofts or the LT Lofts, not burban enough for ppl who'd otherwise be living elsewhere, who will be OK with bldgs like the medici or City Lights, or not lucrative enough for investors or buyers, who will be OK with projs like Elleven or the Eastern columbia bldg.

I don't want to be a downer right now, but I really didn't expect one of the nicest old bldgs in DT, referring to metro417, if not also the other old bldgs converted to apts around Fig or Flower Sts since 2002, to take so long to fill up, esp after seeing the response to Palmer's bldgs or City lights since 2000. But if the situation ahead is rockier than I or others expected, that doesn't have to be translated into bad news. It merely will mean organizations like the DCBID (& ppl who work there such as LAB), or Jan Perry or others just have to work harder & faster, & be more aggressive.

[towersla]

If there is room for one more, I'd love to join the downtown gathering. My condo is up on Bunker Hill. Please keep me in the loop. Thanks!

[LosAngelesBeauty]

^ Of course :)


So it's colemonkee, katfam, towersla, and maybe luma07