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SpongeG
Sep 16, 2018, 9:06 PM
Prudent operational planning to have their aircraft at the outport station (YVR) instead of home (HKG) where there's a level 10 super typhoon wreaking havoc on everything thats not bolted down.

ah right, I was wondering if that was why

teriyaki
Sep 17, 2018, 7:34 PM
The YUL and YYZ pages are pretty dormant, hence the posts on the Canadian airports page. YHM has a pretty active page, and yet people still post in the national page. As do people from this thread mind you. I don't see anything wrong with that.

Pretty straighforward criteria to post in the national page methinks.

1. Are you posting about a Canadian airport? If yes.
2. Go ahead

Very glad we have an active community for here for YVR :tup:

nname
Sep 19, 2018, 6:57 PM
Latest stat from TPE... Looks like it's much more busier this year, and the route may still lacks capacity over the summer months. Wonder if BR ever going to bring the 777HD back, or AC may want a bigger plane...

YVR -> TPE, July
AC 89.4%
BR 86.9%
CI 93.5%

YVR -> TPE, Aug
AC 91.3%
BR 78.9%
CI 88.7%

TPE -> YVR, July
AC 96.8%
BR 88.0%
CI 89.8%

TPE -> YVR, Aug
AC 99.2%
BR 93.0%
CI 95.7%

How hard would it take to achieve an average monthly LF of over 99% for a daily flight...

excel
Sep 19, 2018, 8:20 PM
Plenty over booking ;)

teriyaki
Sep 19, 2018, 8:44 PM
Looking good for TPE flights to see them going out full.

Prices connecting on CI and BR to rest of Asia though haven't moved much and even may have gone up after the introduction of AC. Also happened was the retiring of the 747-400 flights from both CI and BR so capacity on both those carriers has come down quite a bit moving to the A350 and 777.

In any case, hope all 3 are happy with the route and we see healthy competition:)

Hourglass
Sep 20, 2018, 4:07 AM
YVR Ranks #27 globally in the 2018 OAG Megahubs report, which looks at the world’s most internationally connected airports. That’s higher than Sydney (#29), San Francisco (#30), Beijing (#32) and Zurich (#41). Toronto was #5.

Not too shabby at all.

Link to the full report is here: https://www.oag.com/hubfs/Free_Reports/Megahubs/2018/Megahubs_International_Index_2018.pdf?hsCtaTracking=cb970431-e381-4ada-b54b-b168f98d9eb7%7Cf52e0462-7e9f-4091-a2e7-91d2eda51d07

LeftCoaster
Sep 22, 2018, 12:26 AM
Latest stat from TPE... Looks like it's much more busier this year, and the route may still lacks capacity over the summer months. Wonder if BR ever going to bring the 777HD back, or AC may want a bigger plane...

YVR -> TPE, July
AC 89.4%
BR 86.9%
CI 93.5%

YVR -> TPE, Aug
AC 91.3%
BR 78.9%
CI 88.7%

TPE -> YVR, July
AC 96.8%
BR 88.0%
CI 89.8%

TPE -> YVR, Aug
AC 99.2%
BR 93.0%
CI 95.7%

How hard would it take to achieve an average monthly LF of over 99% for a daily flight...

I'm flying with AC in November. I wonder how good the off peak loads are as I spent $705 round trip. Cheaper than a flight to Toronto.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 22, 2018, 3:30 AM
I'm flying with AC in November. I wonder how good the off peak loads are as I spent $705 round trip. Cheaper than a flight to Toronto.

We are flying EVA home for Xmas via TPE and premium economy was a steal of a deal.. l EVA’s prem economy is terrific! Including stopovers each way to see a bit more of Taipei.

SpongeG
Sep 22, 2018, 5:18 AM
from facebook:

Vancouver International Airport
5 hrs ·
YVR proudly welcomes Iskwew Air to the family! Iskwew is a Cree word for woman and celebrates the first airline in Canada owned by an Indigenous woman. Service will commence in Spring 2019. For more information about our new partner visit www.iskwew.ca

https://scontent.fyxd2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/42363907_1830386586999127_2869177929143681024_n.jpg?_nc_cat=104&oh=1265680d63ea1a75928ae7e66d0019b8&oe=5C24A1D2

https://scontent.fyxd2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/42274480_1830386593665793_8026201017500565504_n.jpg?_nc_cat=109&oh=f6976534a01852535747da3f7c682d38&oe=5C18D101

https://scontent.fyxd2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/42358787_1830386630332456_736013624799133696_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&oh=a241fec1c887de1a9de1540ce61b54a8&oe=5C24423F

https://www.facebook.com/VancouverInternationalAirport/posts/1830386660332453

excel
Sep 22, 2018, 6:33 AM
That's one nice looking Navajo. How fitting for the airline :)

nname
Sep 25, 2018, 9:25 PM
from facebook:

Vancouver International Airport
5 hrs ·
YVR proudly welcomes Iskwew Air to the family! Iskwew is a Cree word for woman and celebrates the first airline in Canada owned by an Indigenous woman. Service will commence in Spring 2019. For more information about our new partner visit www.iskwew.ca


Maybe that'll help increase YVR's destination count, as there are still many tiny BC airports without scheduled service ;)

YMB, YLI, DUQ, YHE, ZGF, YMP, YPB, YPS, YCA, YCW, YAL, YPU, YSN, YSE, YVE... easily 15 destinations :D

LeftCoaster
Sep 25, 2018, 11:00 PM
An easy to root for story, hope she can make it work.

twoNeurons
Sep 26, 2018, 12:22 AM
It's crazy there isn't a YUL thread. Is it's following too lame to have one or do they just want to pump themselves up in front of the rest of the country in the national thread?

Not sure about YUL, but I know that SSC is a more popular forum for Torontites. SSP was started in Vancouver ( way, way, back ) so it makes sense that YVR has a strong following here.

nname
Sep 27, 2018, 3:24 AM
Cross post from the Canadian Airport thread:

Effective Oct 1, China will ease restriction on one airline per route policy on 20 most popular routes.

Affected routes in Canada:
PEK-YVR
PEK-YYZ
PVG-YVR
PVG-YYZ

List of all the routes:
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-AIRLINES/010080EM0VB/CHINA-AIRLINES.jpg

Source:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-aviation-analysis/foreign-airlines-to-face-new-rivals-on-popular-china-routes-as-restrictions-ease-idUSKCN1M60TL

What will be the effect from this? There is no more frequency available from the Chinese side, but will there be shuffling of the Canadian routes? Would MU move one of the PVG-YVR flight to PEK-YVR? Will CA try PVG-YVR, but they definitely want access to YYZ too? Will HU move some of the YYZ/YYC frequency to PEK-YVR? Would any of the route to secondary cities like TAO or TSN be cancelled? Or would any of the airline play evil and drop 1 weekly frequency so the route no longer qualify for the minimum 14 flights/week requirement to be served by 2 airlines?

zahav
Oct 1, 2018, 9:30 PM
August stats are out. Growth more subdued for sure, I think the onslaught of fires/weather factored in as many had predicted. I wonder if rebookings into September will help those numbers, or if it was just a wash of cancellations without rebooking? The US numbers continue to be underwhelming after a stronger first half of the year. Still the Trump effect?

Domestic: +4.5% (+6.8% YTD)
Transborder: +2.9% (+6.1% YTD)
International (non-transborder): +10.2% (+13% YTD)
International (incl transborder): +6.7% (+9.7% YTD)
Overall: +5.7% (+8.3% YTD)

Still not bad numbers for the month, roughly the same as YUL's overall growth but lower than YYC's. YYC domestic has been pulling ahead again, while international is shrinking. YVR and YUL are more similar with international leading the way

Johnny Aussie
Oct 2, 2018, 12:14 AM
Yes subdued is a good word. In a normal period of growth 5.7% would be robust... but when you’re used to much higher growth...

Still though YVR added 144,000 more passengers compared to last August... about 90,000 of that is international.

YVR’s TTL international growth YTD still the strongest in Canada and second behind YYZ in aggregate numbers.

YVR’s international domestic split was 52.3/47.7 in August.

YYC continues to become an increasing domestic airport with almost 75% of pax numbers domestic in August.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 2, 2018, 7:36 PM
Next summer looks like AC is doing an aircraft swap between FRA and the second LHR.

Shifting a bit of capacity LHR —> FRA.

AC 840 to FRA now showing as a 789
AC 896 to LHR now showing as a 788

AC 854 to LHR still showing as a 789

nname
Oct 3, 2018, 4:48 AM
Looking at next summer's schedule.

YVR-KIX reduce to 5x weekly (x57)
YVR-ZRH increase to 5x weekly (x13)
YVR-CDG remains 4x weekly (x246)

As for DUB, right now still remains Rouge (!!), but reduced to 4x weekly. To me, that's a signal that it will probably survive, and more changes may be coming...


On a side note, all YUL 788's are now replaced by 789. So now all of the 788s are running out of YVR, except 2 routes in YYZ.

AC 2 77W HND - YYZ
AC 4 789 NRT - YVR
AC 6 789 NRT - YUL
AC 8 77W HKG - YVR
AC 10 763 NRT - YYC - YYZ
AC 12 789 PVG - YUL
AC 14 - Not Found!
AC 16 77L HKG - YYZ
AC 18 789 TPE - YVR
AC 20 - Not Found!
AC 22 - Not Found!
AC 24 - Not Found!
AC 26 77W PVG - YVR
AC 28 789 PVG - YYZ
AC 30 77W PEK - YVR
AC 32 77W PEK - YYZ
AC 34 77L SYD - YVR - YYZ
AC 36 788 BNE - YVR
AC 38 789 MEL - YVR
AC 40 788 KIX - YVR
AC 42 789 YYZ - DEL
AC 44 789 YVR - DEL
AC 46 789 YYZ - BOM
AC 48 - Not Found!
AC 50 - Not Found!
AC 52 - Not Found!
AC 54 - Not Found!
AC 56 789 YYZ - DXB
AC 58 - Not Found!
AC 60 - Not Found!
AC 62 77W ICN - YYZ
AC 64 789 ICN - YVR
AC 66 - Not Found!
AC 68 - Not Found!
AC 70 - Not Found!
AC 72 - Not Found!
AC 74 - Not Found!
AC 76 - Not Found!
AC 78 - Not Found!
AC 80 - Not Found!
AC 82 333 YUL - TLV
AC 84 789 YYZ - TLV
AC 86 - Not Found!
AC 88 - Not Found!
AC 90 789 YYZ - GRU
AC 92 789 YYZ - SCL
AC 94 789 YYZ - EZE
AC 96 - Not Found!
AC 98 - Not Found!

AC 800 - Not Found!
AC 802 788 YVR - ZRH
AC 804 - Not Found!
AC 806 788 YVR - CDG
AC 808 333 YUL - CMN
AC 810 - Not Found!
AC 812 7M8 YUL - KEF
AC 814 7M8 YUL - BOD
AC 816 7M8 YYZ - KEF
AC 818 7M8 YUL - DUB
AC 820 7M8 YYZ - SNN
AC 822 7M8 YYT - LHR
AC 824 789 YYZ - AMS
AC 826 - Not Found!
AC 828 333 YUL - LYS
AC 830 - Not Found!
AC 832 333 YUL - BRU
AC 834 333 YYZ - YUL - GVA
AC 836 789 YYZ - MAD
AC 838 763 YOW - FRA
AC 840 789 YVR - FRA
AC 842 333 YYZ - DUB
AC 844 77L YYC - FRA
AC 846 789 YYZ - MUC
AC 848 77W YYZ - LHR
AC 850 789 YYC - LHR
AC 852 - Not Found!
AC 854 789 YVR - LHR
AC 856 77W YYZ - LHR
AC 858 77W YYZ - LHR
AC 860 7M8 YHZ - LHR
AC 862 - Not Found!
AC 864 333 YUL - LHR
AC 866 - Not Found!
AC 868 788 YYZ - LHR
AC 870 333 YUL - CDG
AC 872 77W YYZ - FRA
AC 874 789 YUL - FRA
AC 876 77L YYZ - FRA
AC 878 77W YYZ - ZRH
AC 880 77W YYZ - CDG
AC 882 77W YYZ - CPH
AC 884 77W YUL - CDG
AC 886 - Not Found!
AC 888 763 YOW - LHR
AC 890 77W YYZ - FCO
AC 892 77W YUL - FCO
AC 894 788 YYZ - MXP
AC 896 788 YVR - LHR
AC 898 789 YYZ - VIE

So counting the 788s:
2 planes for YVR - KIX/ZRH/CDG
2 planes for YVR/YYZ - LHR
1.5 planes for YVR - BNE
1 plane for YYZ-MXP

No more domestic or trans-con 788s.
so 1.5 planes - ??

nname
Oct 3, 2018, 6:15 AM
Next summer looks like AC is doing an aircraft swap between FRA and the second LHR.

Shifting a bit of capacity LHR —> FRA.

AC 840 to FRA now showing as a 789
AC 896 to LHR now showing as a 788

AC 854 to LHR still showing as a 789

AC 897 is a 789
AC 855 is now a 788

So basically, it's

AC 896 YVR 2105 - 1420+1 LHR
AC 859 LHR 1800 - 2040 YYZ

AC 868 YYZ 0910 - 2100 LHR
AC 855 LHR 1005 - 1130 YVR

I guess that's actually 3 planes for the LHR rotation?

zahav
Oct 3, 2018, 6:26 AM
KIX is 6 weekly from what I see, just x6

SO curious what is happening with DUB, I can see them moving it to mainline. I hope that is the case at least!

nname
Oct 3, 2018, 6:35 AM
KIX is 6 weekly from what I see, just x6

SO curious what is happening with DUB, I can see them moving it to mainline. I hope that is the case at least!

Not from AC Flight Schedule (https://services.aircanada.com/portal/rest/getFlightsByCityPair?forceTimetable=true&dep=YVR&arr=KIX&date=8-14-2019&app_key=AE919FDCC80311DF9BABC975DFD72085) (which usually updates first)

<CarrierCode>AC</CarrierCode>
<FlightNumber>39</FlightNumber>
<OverallStatus>SCHEDULED</OverallStatus>
...
<OperatingInfo>
<Operating departureDate="2019-08-11">false</Operating>
<Operating departureDate="2019-08-12">true</Operating>
<Operating departureDate="2019-08-13">true</Operating>
<Operating departureDate="2019-08-14">true</Operating>
<Operating departureDate="2019-08-15">true</Operating>
<Operating departureDate="2019-08-16">false</Operating>
<Operating departureDate="2019-08-17">true</Operating>
</OperatingInfo>

nname
Oct 3, 2018, 7:03 AM
SO curious what is happening with DUB, I can see them moving it to mainline. I hope that is the case at least!

I was thinking they could convert it to 788 and use the other 3x weekly for something else... but then I notice there aren't any spare 788s anymore. In fact, the current routes for 788 couldn't even fit without some small schedule adjustments.

I guess another possibility is that it'll use the slot for CDG (they both x246), and uses something else for CDG? Possibly rotate with the 333s from YUL?

Or it can rotate with the 789s... but there aren't any non-daily 789 routes except for MEL (which increases to 4x weekly, also happens to be x246).

And then speaking of that, what are they going to do with the other 3x weekly from the MEL rotation? MEL will no longer rotate with DEL, since DEL will be daily next summer.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 3, 2018, 7:57 AM
I was thinking they could convert it to 788 and use the other 3x weekly for something else... but then I notice there aren't any spare 788s anymore. In fact, the current routes for 788 couldn't even fit without some small schedule adjustments.

I guess another possibility is that it'll use the slot for CDG (they both x246), and uses something else for CDG? Possibly rotate with the 333s from YUL?

Or it can rotate with the 789s... but there aren't any non-daily 789 routes except for MEL (which increases to 4x weekly, also happens to be x246).

And then speaking of that, what are they going to do with the other 3x weekly from the MEL rotation? MEL will no longer rotate with DEL, since DEL will be daily next summer.

Looks like there is still more to the story then!

Fantastic to see increases to ZRH, MEL and DEL.

Will have to wait and see how this all unfolds.

mezzanine
Oct 3, 2018, 3:18 PM
Ha! Will it be SIN?

It would be good timing with the LNG announcement and some of the proponents being from SE Asia.

thenoflyzone
Oct 3, 2018, 4:48 PM
Ha! Will it be SIN?

It would be good timing with the LNG announcement and some of the proponents being from SE Asia.

Probably not.

Only 2 789 deliveries left to come from now until summer 2019.

The new YYZ-VIE takes up 1 frame. Several other 788/789 routes are increasing in frequency, and therefore with 1 (or less) frames left, can't see there being room for a daily SIN flight. (launching SIN at anything less than daily service is a waste of time). And AC still needs some frames to replace the 767s on YYC-NRT, YOW-FRA/LHR. And DUB is still a question mark.

I simpy can't see how YVR-SIN can be operated with the current fleet plan of AC (without another route being canceled that is).

I used to think YVR-SIN was a priority for AC, but the more I think about it, the less likely that scenario seems. Probably for the better. 30,000 O&D is not enough to sustain such a long route. Of course, there is always SQ...

nname
Oct 3, 2018, 5:13 PM
Probably not.

Only 2 789 deliveries left to come from now until summer 2019.

The new YYZ-VIE takes up 1 frame. Several other 788/789 routes are increasing in frequency, and therefore with 1 (or less) frames left, can't see there being room for a daily SIN flight. (launching SIN at anything less than daily service is a waste of time). And AC still needs some frames to replace the 767s on YYC-NRT, YOW-FRA/LHR. And DUB is still a question mark.

I simpy can't see how YVR-SIN can be operated with the current fleet plan of AC (without another route being canceled that is).

I used to think YVR-SIN was a priority for AC, but the more I think about it, the less likely that scenario seems. Probably for the better. 30,000 O&D is not enough to sustain such a long route. Of course, there is always SQ...

They must do something with those 2 frames that runs the 4x weekly YVR-MEL, right? Where else can they put it for the other 3 days? There is no other non-daily 789 routes out of YVR, and I don't think they'd run any domestic flight 3x weekly to rotate with long haul from another base...

Now thinking more about this, calculating the widebody requirement for YVR next summer

-3 Removal of Rouge 767 flights
+1 Change 7x weekly CDG/ZRH into 14x weekly CDG/ZRH/KIX rotation
+0 Change 7x weekly DEL/MEL into standalone DEL flight
+0 Aircraft change for LHR/FRA

Now the more complicated stuff
+1.1 4x weekly MEL flight, the second frame only needed for approx 12 hours on Tuesday morning
+0.6 4x weekly DUB still in limbo, but this plane cannot be the same as the 0.1 from MEL flight as it is still in the air Tuesday morning for x246 schedule

So as of now, the YVR actually have 0.3 less widebodies in service per week, but of course, the current schedule will require +1 plane just for Tuesday morning. Unless there will be a change in schedule to remove the Monday flight to DUB, I don't see how it would work.

And didn't AC ordered 4 more 333s to replace the 763s?

zahav
Oct 4, 2018, 7:13 AM
I think AC would rather SQ take the risk of a Singpore flight, look how long it took them to finally launch even an un-risky route like TPE, letting BR operate it for *A all those years. And AC's Euro additions were fairly safe too (CDG moreso than ZRH, but still). I feel like AC is way quicker to cozy up to its European *A partners than the Asian ones. They could do so much more with their YVR base and partners like Thai and Singapore but just don't seem to want to try. They even codeshare closer with Cathay than they do with SQ, and Cathay is One World! Kinda bizarre to me

nname
Oct 4, 2018, 7:57 AM
I was so curious about how the DUB flight and the extra 3x weekly flight will go, so I gathered all the mainline long-hual frequency changes from AC:

Toronto ->
Berlin 4->6 R
Bogota 5->D R
Bucharest 2->3 R
Lima 4->3 R
Manchester 5->D R
Vienna 0->7 M
Warsaw 7E->7R
Overall -7E +7M +14R

Montreal ->
Algers 4->5 R
Bordeaux 0->4 N
Bucharest 2->3 R
Dublin 4->3 N
Lima 2->3 R
Overall +3N +3R

Vancouver ->
Delhi 4->D M
Dublin 5->4 R
Honolulu 5R->7N
Kahului 2R->5N
Melbroune 3->4 M
Nayoga 3->0 R
Osaka 6R->5M
Zurich 3->5 M
Overall +11M +12N -17R

E = 767 Mainline
M = 787 Mainline
N = 7M8 Mainline
R = Rouge

So all the Rouge resource freed up from YVR were already taken up. One 767 frame is gone (which was the plan I believe), the previous reported equipment change between 777, 787, and 330 seems to be status quo. And the last two new 787 seems like going one each to YVR and YYZ, but there's not enough to run 11 weekly at YVR from just a single plane??

And there's doesn't seen to have enough resource to add anything else though.. unless the new A330s are also coming next year? But that would be replacing the remaining mainline 767s still in the system?

The entire long-hual schedule so far for S19:

AC 2 77W D HND - YYZ
AC 4 789 D NRT - YVR
AC 6 789 D NRT - YUL
AC 8 77W D HKG - YVR
AC 10 763 D NRT - YYC - YYZ
AC 12 789 D PVG - YUL
AC 14 - - Not Found!
AC 16 77L D HKG - YYZ
AC 18 789 D TPE - YVR
AC 20 - - Not Found!
AC 22 - - Not Found!
AC 24 - - Not Found!
AC 26 77W D PVG - YVR
AC 28 789 D PVG - YYZ
AC 30 77W D PEK - YVR
AC 32 77W D PEK - YYZ
AC 34 77L D SYD - YVR - YYZ
AC 36 788 D BNE - YVR
AC 38 789 2357 MEL - YVR
AC 40 788 23457 KIX - YVR
AC 42 789 D YYZ - DEL
AC 44 789 D YVR - DEL
AC 46 789 1357 YYZ - BOM
AC 48 - - Not Found!
AC 50 - - Not Found!
AC 52 - - Not Found!
AC 54 - - Not Found!
AC 56 789 246 YYZ - DXB
AC 58 - - Not Found!
AC 60 - - Not Found!
AC 62 77W D ICN - YYZ
AC 64 789 D ICN - YVR
AC 66 - - Not Found!
AC 68 - - Not Found!
AC 70 - - Not Found!
AC 72 - - Not Found!
AC 74 - - Not Found!
AC 76 - - Not Found!
AC 78 - - Not Found!
AC 80 - - Not Found!
AC 82 333 347 YUL - TLV
AC 84 789 D YYZ - TLV
AC 86 - - Not Found!
AC 88 - - Not Found!
AC 90 789 D YYZ - GRU
AC 92 789 2467 YYZ - SCL
AC 94 789 135 YYZ - EZE
AC 96 - - Not Found!
AC 98 - - Not Found!
AC 800 - - Not Found!
AC 802 788 24567 YVR - ZRH
AC 804 - - Not Found!
AC 806 788 1357 YVR - CDG
AC 808 333 123567 YUL - CMN
AC 810 - - Not Found!
AC 812 7M8 257 YUL - KEF
AC 814 7M8 1346 YUL - BOD
AC 816 7M8 1346 YYZ - KEF
AC 818 7M8 246 YUL - DUB
AC 820 7M8 2457 YYZ - SNN
AC 822 7M8 D YYT - LHR
AC 824 789 D YYZ - AMS
AC 826 - - Not Found!
AC 828 333 12456 YUL - LYS
AC 830 - - Not Found!
AC 832 333 D YUL - BRU
AC 834 333 D YYZ - YUL - GVA
AC 836 789 D YYZ - MAD
AC 838 763 D YOW - FRA
AC 840 789 D YVR - FRA
AC 842 333 D YYZ - DUB
AC 844 77L D YYC - FRA
AC 846 789 D YYZ - MUC
AC 848 77W D YYZ - LHR
AC 850 789 D YYC - LHR
AC 852 - - Not Found!
AC 854 789 D YVR - LHR
AC 856 77W D YYZ - LHR
AC 858 77W D YYZ - LHR
AC 860 7M8 D YHZ - LHR
AC 862 - - Not Found!
AC 864 333 D YUL - LHR
AC 866 - - Not Found!
AC 868 788 D YYZ - LHR
AC 870 333 D YUL - CDG
AC 872 77W D YYZ - FRA
AC 874 789 D YUL - FRA
AC 876 77L D YYZ - FRA
AC 878 77W D YYZ - ZRH
AC 880 77W D YYZ - CDG
AC 882 77W D YYZ - CPH
AC 884 77W D YUL - CDG
AC 886 - - Not Found!
AC 888 763 D YOW - LHR
AC 890 77W D YYZ - FCO
AC 892 77W D YUL - FCO
AC 894 788 D YYZ - MXP
AC 896 788 D YVR - LHR
AC 898 789 D YYZ - VIE
AC 1900 763 D YYZ - ATH
AC 1902 763 D YUL - ATH
AC 1904 763 2457 YYZ - EDI
AC 1906 763 D YYZ - VCE
AC 1908 - - Not Found!
AC 1910 763 D YYZ - BUD
AC 1912 763 D YUL - BCN
AC 1914 763 D YYZ - BCN
AC 1916 763 123567 YYZ - LIS
AC 1918 763 456 YUL - VCE
AC 1920 763 24567 YUL - ALG
AC 1922 763 134567 YYZ - PRG
AC 1924 - - Not Found!
AC 1926 763 D YYZ - WAW
AC 1928 763 247 YUL - OTP
AC 1930 763 D YYZ - MAN
AC 1932 763 1246 YUL - NCE
AC 1934 - - Not Found!
AC 1936 - - Not Found!
AC 1938 763 136 YYZ - GLA
AC 1940 763 1357 YVR - DUB
AC 1942 763 136 YUL - LIM
AC 1944 763 D YYZ - BOG
AC 1946 763 2457 YYZ - LIM
AC 1948 319 357 YYZ - PTY
AC 1950 - - Not Found!
AC 1952 - - Not Found!
AC 1954 - - Not Found!
AC 1956 - - Not Found!
AC 1958 763 357 YYZ - OPO
AC 1960 763 357 YUL - LIS
AC 1962 763 357 YUL - MRS
AC 1964 763 136 YYZ - OTP
AC 1966 763 123467 YYZ - TXL
AC 1968 763 2346 YYZ - ZAG
AC 1970 - - Not Found!

thenoflyzone
Oct 4, 2018, 5:40 PM
And didn't AC ordered 4 more 333s to replace the 763s?

Yes. 4 ex. SQ A333s that are now with TAP. They are all 9.5 years old at the moment.

.. unless the new A330s are also coming next year? But that would be replacing the remaining mainline 767s still in the system?


yes, in 2019. YVR-DUB will more than likely go A333, by the looks of it.

LeftCoaster
Oct 5, 2018, 8:34 PM
August stats are out. Growth more subdued for sure, I think the onslaught of fires/weather factored in as many had predicted. I wonder if rebookings into September will help those numbers, or if it was just a wash of cancellations without rebooking? The US numbers continue to be underwhelming after a stronger first half of the year. Still the Trump effect?

Domestic: +4.5% (+6.8% YTD)
Transborder: +2.9% (+6.1% YTD)
International (non-transborder): +10.2% (+13% YTD)
International (incl transborder): +6.7% (+9.7% YTD)
Overall: +5.7% (+8.3% YTD)

Still not bad numbers for the month, roughly the same as YUL's overall growth but lower than YYC's. YYC domestic has been pulling ahead again, while international is shrinking. YVR and YUL are more similar with international leading the way

Hmm well the PAX increases largely mirror the capacity increases I was tracking for peak summer.

https://i.imgur.com/dEsctBr.png

So the PAX increased by more than capacity increased on Asia-Pac so average loads went up. PAX increased by less than capacity increased on Europe, so loads went down, but given the big increase to Europe seats this summer that is likely a very impressive absorption on the new routes. Explains why it seems ZRH might be getting a bump.

Transborder on the other-hand is a big disappointment. So is domestic... where are all those YYC flyers going, cause it doesn't seem to be YVR!

I wonder if swoop and YXX are taking a bit of YVRs steam on the domestic front?

nname
Oct 5, 2018, 9:52 PM
Transborder on the other-hand is a big disappointment. So is domestic... where are all those YYC flyers going, cause it doesn't seem to be YVR!

I wonder if swoop and YXX are taking a bit of YVRs steam on the domestic front?

Or maybe now people can take direct YVR-Europe flights (International) instead of YVR-YYZ-Europe (Domestic) or YVR-EWR-Europe (Transborder).

Similarly, people can now use YVR-MEX-South America (International) instead of YVR-YYZ-South America (Domestic) or YVR-LAX-South America (Transborder).

Some of the increase in International traffic must be coming from somewhere... not all of them are new.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 5, 2018, 11:58 PM
Hmm well the PAX increases largely mirror the capacity increases I was tracking for peak summer.

https://i.imgur.com/dEsctBr.png

So the PAX increased by more than capacity increased on Asia-Pac so average loads went up. PAX increased by less than capacity increased on Europe, so loads went down, but given the big increase to Europe seats this summer that is likely a very impressive absorption on the new routes. Explains why it seems ZRH might be getting a bump.

Transborder on the other-hand is a big disappointment. So is domestic... where are all those YYC flyers going, cause it doesn't seem to be YVR!

I wonder if swoop and YXX are taking a bit of YVRs steam on the domestic front?

Just be careful when comparing capacity vs actual growth as your spreadsheets (which are excellent by the way) are just estimates.

Both Asia Pacific and Europe statistically within an error margin implies that all capacity is most likely being absorbed. My former auditor days lingo!

There were some cancellations to FRA as well this summer. All that needs to be taken into account.

Overall fantastic international growth continuing.

As the base number for transborder starts to become higher even decent flight additions will now reflect lower % growth. In pure numbers growth YVR still plodding along well. TBH there wasn’t significant transborder capacity added this summer compared to last summer. 18,000 more transborder pax in Aug 18 vs Aug 17. Case in point YEG transborder increased a massive 25% in August but only 15,000 more passengers. I will suggest that capacity increases didn’t get absorbed as well but certainly not “poor.”

Same with domestic... I don’t think there were any significant increases this year... Flair’s additions were very minor. Domestic growth at 4.5% is still pretty decent actually. Still 50,000 more domestic passengers in Aug 2018 vs Aug 2017.

zahav
Oct 6, 2018, 7:03 AM
Not sure if it was a factor, but AC added tons of flights this summer that bypassed YVR (YCD-YYZ, YKA-YYZ, YYJ-YUL too I think). I mentioned a few posts back that it is very encouraging to see AC beef up service to those centres as it shows there is strong demand from BC cities. However for YVR traffic, more point to point service from secondary cities do take some away from domestic connections.

It's pretting obvious that AC's priorities as firmly in YYZ, they would sooner do a route like YYZ-YKA than even a couple weekly YVR-YHZ or YVR-YQB, which connect way bigger and more important (sorry Kamloops) cities

casper
Oct 6, 2018, 8:20 AM
Not sure if it was a factor, but AC added tons of flights this summer that bypassed YVR (YCD-YYZ, YKA-YYZ, YYJ-YUL too I think). I mentioned a few posts back that it is very encouraging to see AC beef up service to those centres as it shows there is strong demand from BC cities. However for YVR traffic, more point to point service from secondary cities do take some away from domestic connections.

It's pretting obvious that AC's priorities as firmly in YYZ, they would sooner do a route like YYZ-YKA than even a couple weekly YVR-YHZ or YVR-YQB, which connect way bigger and more important (sorry Kamloops) cities

I am not certain these new routes to YYZ are going to have a major impact on YVR. It is more a case of over flying YYC. From Kamloops you would be more likely to use YYC as your connecting airport heading east.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 6, 2018, 10:06 AM
Not sure if it was a factor, but AC added tons of flights this summer that bypassed YVR (YCD-YYZ, YKA-YYZ, YYJ-YUL too I think). I mentioned a few posts back that it is very encouraging to see AC beef up service to those centres as it shows there is strong demand from BC cities. However for YVR traffic, more point to point service from secondary cities do take some away from domestic connections.

It's pretting obvious that AC's priorities as firmly in YYZ, they would sooner do a route like YYZ-YKA than even a couple weekly YVR-YHZ or YVR-YQB, which connect way bigger and more important (sorry Kamloops) cities

Tons of flights?

YCD-YYZ 4 weekly
YKA-YYZ 3 weekly
YYJ-YUL 3 weekly

Let's not get too carried away here.

Clearly these markets can sustain limited seasonal flights. Not necessarily prioritising YYZ more like the markets are large enough.

nname
Oct 6, 2018, 12:18 PM
Not sure if it was a factor, but AC added tons of flights this summer that bypassed YVR (YCD-YYZ, YKA-YYZ, YYJ-YUL too I think). I mentioned a few posts back that it is very encouraging to see AC beef up service to those centres as it shows there is strong demand from BC cities. However for YVR traffic, more point to point service from secondary cities do take some away from domestic connections.

It's pretting obvious that AC's priorities as firmly in YYZ, they would sooner do a route like YYZ-YKA than even a couple weekly YVR-YHZ or YVR-YQB, which connect way bigger and more important (sorry Kamloops) cities

http://i65.tinypic.com/fqjc2.png

:cool:

thenoflyzone
Oct 6, 2018, 3:38 PM
It's pretting obvious that AC's priorities as firmly in YYZ, they would sooner do a route like YYZ-YKA than even a couple weekly YVR-YHZ or YVR-YQB, which connect way bigger and more important (sorry Kamloops) cities

That's not true. As Johnny said, those markets are served because the demand is there during peak season. There is probably more demand on YUL-YYJ than YVR-YQB, that's all.

thenoflyzone
Oct 6, 2018, 4:39 PM
...there is also probably more demand for YYJ-Europe than YQB-East Asia. And with YUL getting service to the main East Asian markets, there is less of a need to connect in YVR.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 6, 2018, 10:10 PM
...there is also probably more demand for YYJ-Europe than YQB-East Asia. And with YUL getting service to the main East Asian markets, there is less of a need to connect in YVR.

I would assume YQB passengers travelling to/from East Asia would have connected in YYZ even before YUL had flights to NRT, PVG and PEK. So really there probably would have been minimal (next to zero) passengers transiting YVR from YQB to Asia anyway.

thenoflyzone
Oct 7, 2018, 1:06 AM
I would assume YQB passengers travelling to/from East Asia would have connected in YYZ even before YUL had flights to NRT, PVG and PEK. So really there probably would have been minimal (next to zero) passengers transiting YVR from YQB to Asia anyway.

Exactly right. AC's East Asian network from YYZ is almost as big as YVR, meaning a lesser need to connect there.

LeftCoaster
Oct 10, 2018, 6:52 PM
Yeah, this is one where I highly doubt both parties are looking at it seriously.

YVR may be looking at it but I doubt AC is. It's taken this bloody long for someone to even have an attempt at YVR-DEL and only seasonal three weekly. You will see AC daily year round before even an attempt would be made for YVR-BOM. And my first point is a long way off.

Hmm well I believe AC YVR-DEL is now seasonal daily (or pretty damn close)....

Given how quickly AC took YVR-DEL year round they must be happy, perhaps YVR-BOM could be looked at in the next 3-4 years. The lack of new frames is an issue but with the 330s coming in they could pull one dreamliner off Europe to run a seasonal 3x PW. Utilization of winder widebodies is tough so it's not totally nuts.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 10, 2018, 7:04 PM
Hmm well I believe AC YVR-DEL is now seasonal daily (or pretty damn close)....

Given how quickly AC took YVR-DEL year round they must be happy, perhaps YVR-BOM could be looked at in the next 3-4 years. The lack of new frames is an issue but with the 330s coming in they could pull one dreamliner off Europe to run a seasonal 3x PW. Utilization of winder widebodies is tough so it's not totally nuts.

YVR-DEL is a huge market. YVR-BOM is not.

YYZ-DEL is much larger than YVR but YYZ-BOM is closer to YYZ-DEL.

I am pleasantly surprised they are going daily in the summer as YVR-DEL is very seasonal with much heavier loads late autumn to early spring.

LeftCoaster
Oct 10, 2018, 7:07 PM
But you promised! ;)

deasine
Oct 10, 2018, 11:04 PM
Confirmation of WS 787s for YYC, which should solidfy their hub against AC

CBC News: WestJet's first 3 long-haul Dreamliners will fly direct between Calgary and Europe.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/westjet-dreamliners-calgary-hub-1.4856849

trofirhen
Oct 11, 2018, 12:41 AM
Confirmation of WS 787s for YYC, which should solidfy their hub against AC

CBC News: WestJet's first 3 long-haul Dreamliners will fly direct between Calgary and Europe.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/westjet-dreamliners-calgary-hub-1.4856849

The article also mentioned new routes to South America. Would that be out of YVR or YYC?

canlynx
Oct 11, 2018, 1:43 AM
The article also mentioned new routes to South America. Would that be out of YVR or YYC?

Probably YYZ given they seem to be solidifying their western hub at YYC, and it's unlikely to see South American flights from there.

trofirhen
Oct 11, 2018, 3:49 AM
Probably YYZ given they seem to be solidifying their western hub at YYC, and it's unlikely to see South American flights from there.

In that case, they'd be competing head-to-head with AC, which covers major destinations in South America (Rio and Caracas having recently been dropped)
On a WS chart posted somewhere earlier this year, I noticed routes from YVR to Lima and Santiago. Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part, but I hope it comes about.

YYCguys
Oct 11, 2018, 3:59 AM
On a WS chart posted somewhere earlier this year, I noticed routes from YVR to Lima and Santiago. Maybe that's just wishful thinking on my part, but I hope it comes about.

I think that chart was meant to demonstrate the range of possibilities of 787 routes from Westjet’s Hubs, not an official route announcement.

CloudInspector
Oct 11, 2018, 6:13 AM
I think that chart was meant to demonstrate the range of possibilities of 787 routes from Westjet’s Hubs, not an official route announcement.

I’ve heard from fairly reliable sources that those are routes under consideration.

thenoflyzone
Oct 11, 2018, 3:24 PM
YVR-South America would work, only once WS has a decent Asian network already built up. With only 10 dreamliners on order and 10 options, I would imagine South America out of YVR would only start when WS already has those 10 dreamliners delivered, and has already excercised their rights on those options.

officedweller
Oct 11, 2018, 7:44 PM
Received this from WestJet today:

Go further with WestJet
Our new fleet of 787 Dreamliner aircraft is ready to take flight. We’re going direct to Dublin, London and Paris from Calgary and we couldn’t be more excited to welcome you aboard. Step into the new WestJet and book today.

LeftCoaster
Oct 11, 2018, 11:12 PM
Quoting from the Canada section, looks like the increases to Melbourne and Zurich are confirmed, as is year round daily service to Delhi! Fantastic news and really incredible Delhi went daily so quickly, must be doing great.

Question for the pros, is Swiss part of the AC/LH joint venture? It would be great to see Swiss take over the Zurich route from AC, freeing up another dreamliner for a new route.

"Air Canada to Increase YVR-Delhi Flights to Daily, Year-round; Expands Dreamliner Service From YVR to Several International Destinations in Summer 2019"

Melbourne service increases to four times weekly, year-round
Summer seasonal service to Zurich increases to five weekly flights

VANCOUVER, Oct. 11, 2018 /CNW Telbec/ - Air Canada announced today enhancements to four international routes from Vancouver, including increasing service to Delhi with daily flights on a year-round basis starting June 2, 2019.

An Air Canada Boeing 787 Dreamliner. (CNW Group/Air Canada)

In addition, Air Canada is increasing its non-stop Melbourne service to four times weekly year-round, and summer seasonal service to Zurich will increase to five flights a week. YVR-Osaka (Kansai) flights will be five times weekly from June to October next summer.

All flights will be operated with Air Canada's flagship Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft.

"We are pleased to increase our capacity to these important markets as we continue to strategically broaden our international network from our Vancouver hub. Customers have responded positively to our increasing service to Delhi and this flight will now operate daily on a year-round basis to meet demand. The addition of a fourth weekly flight to Melbourne, Australia's second largest city, year-round will provide further convenience to business and leisure travellers between North America and Australia, offering seamless connections thanks to the in-transit preclearance facilities at YVR. With Dreamliner service to Osaka and increased frequencies to Zurich, we are further strengthening our convenient network to European and Asian markets from YVR, reflecting demand between Canada and these destinations in the busy summer travel season," said Mark Galardo, Vice President, Network Planning at Air Canada.

"As B.C. expands its trade network into India, this daily, direct service between Vancouver to Delhi will help drive trade and partnerships, and expand the technology sectors in both of our countries," said Bruce Ralston, Minister of Jobs, Trade and Technology. "It will attract more people from India to our province and will open doors for Canadians to visit India for business and for tourism. We're excited for Air Canada and our partners at YVR as we continue to grow and diversify B.C.'s economy."

"It's fantastic to see Air Canada continuing to build out its hub and global network from YVR—especially with the incredible Dreamliner. Since the beginning of 2017 alone, Air Canada has launched five international destinations and four new U.S. destinations at YVR," said Craig Richmond, President and CEO, Vancouver Airport Authority. "The increased flights to Delhi, Melbourne and Zurich speaks to the continued strength of YVR's market and our goal to connect B.C. proudly to the world."

Connectivity:

All routes are timed to optimize connectivity at Air Canada's Vancouver hub to and from the airline's extensive network across North America. All Australia flights are timed to connect to and from Adelaide, Canberra, Perth and to Tasmania with codeshare partner Virgin Australia. Additionally, Air Canada's Vancouver-Zurich flights will connect to and from destinations in Europe and Africa.

Other benefits:

Air Canada's Boeing 787 Dreamliner features three cabins of service with high-definition individual on-demand entertainment offering a wide range of movies, short films, TV programs and audio selections at every seat throughout the aircraft.

All flights provide for Aeroplan accumulation and redemption, Star Alliance reciprocal benefits and, for eligible customers, priority check-in, access to Air Canada's Maple Leaf Lounges, priority boarding and other benefits.

https://aircanada.mediaroom.com/2018-10-11-Air-Canada-to-Increase-YVR-Delhi-Flights-to-Daily-Year-round-Expands-Dreamliner-Service-From-YVR-to-Several-International-Destinations-in-Summer-2019

Nothing that wasn't already known, but the issued a formal release for it. The daily year round DEL is really good though, and year-round and increase to MEL. The AC mainline additions have been doing well for AC to boost so much right away. YVR's losses have been all due to Rouge leaving (NGO, ORL). That was no surprise, the redeployment of the Rouge widebodies was common knowloedge and those routes weren't regular or frequent enough to keep.

Interesting still no mention of the mystery around DUB, if it were going mainline I feel like this was the press release to mention in it. But then again if it's going to be an A330 then maybe it will get announced when those planes enter service, along with any other routes those planes will be used on? This release was basically a co-promotion for the Dreamliner, since its used on all the route expansions and mentioned right in the title. Maybe they didn't want to bring up something that wasn't in that grouping. Or maybe it will just stay a Rouge flight and defy all logic!

nname
Oct 11, 2018, 11:31 PM
Right now YVR-DEL is still showing daily even in the low season in October. I guess for the first time DEL will get more service from YVR than YYZ.

Not sure what will happen in November though.

Also, except for PVR, every AC route out of YVR next summer seems to be at least 4x weekly? Unless I missed something.

zahav
Oct 12, 2018, 5:53 AM
Right now YVR-DEL is still showing daily even in the low season in October. I guess for the first time DEL will get more service from YVR than YYZ.

Not sure what will happen in November though.

Also, except for PVR, every AC route out of YVR next summer seems to be at least 4x weekly? Unless I missed something.

Yes that's right. The only flights less than daily will be ZRH (5x), KIX (5x), CDG (4x) and MEL (x4). And DUB (4x) which still is a bit of an oddity.

thenoflyzone
Oct 12, 2018, 11:50 AM
Question for the pros, is Swiss part of the AC/LH joint venture? It would be great to see Swiss take over the Zurich route from AC, freeing up another dreamliner for a new route.

Yes. And you don't have to call me a pro....;)

https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/company/alliances/joint-ventures.html

As for Swiss taking over, it's a long shot. Swiss doesn't do seasonal long haul.

trofirhen
Oct 12, 2018, 12:04 PM
Any chance of another year-round European long-haul destination from YVR? Probably not, but I thought I'd ask. (Additionally, I'd love to see IST, GRU, and SIN, too, but no way for those.)

Johnny Aussie
Oct 12, 2018, 1:15 PM
Another A350 for YVR.

Hong Kong Airlines putting the A350 on the daily YVR-HKG route from 14 Dec 2018 - 19 Feb 2019. Pretty bit capacity boost up from the 332.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/280980/hong-kong-airlines-schedules-a350-vancouver-service-in-w18/

ACT7
Oct 12, 2018, 1:16 PM
Right now YVR-DEL is still showing daily even in the low season in October. I guess for the first time DEL will get more service from YVR than YYZ.

Not sure what will happen in November though.

Also, except for PVR, every AC route out of YVR next summer seems to be at least 4x weekly? Unless I missed something.
You mean just on AC? 9W also flies to DEL from YYZ, albeit via AMS.

thenoflyzone
Oct 12, 2018, 1:36 PM
Another A350 for YVR.

Hong Kong Airlines putting the A350 on the daily YVR-HKG route from 14 Dec 2018 - 19 Feb 2019. Pretty bit capacity boost up from the 332.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/280980/hong-kong-airlines-schedules-a350-vancouver-service-in-w18/

LH to MUC is going A346 next summer though. Addition of first class service. Similar seat count.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/280949/lufthansa-s19-long-haul-changes-as-of-10oct18/

Munich – Vancouver 31MAY19 – 31JUL19 A340-600 replaces A350, 1 daily. First Class service available during this period

thenoflyzone
Oct 12, 2018, 1:53 PM
Any chance of another year-round European long-haul destination from YVR? Probably not, but I thought I'd ask. (Additionally, I'd love to see IST, GRU, and SIN, too, but no way for those.)

by AC, no.
TK to IST will probably happen. Earliest it can is next year, when TK gets it's first batch of B789s (6 in 2019).
We've discussed GRU ad nauseam, stop asking.
SIN as well.

canlynx
Oct 12, 2018, 8:42 PM
Another A350 for YVR.

Hong Kong Airlines putting the A350 on the daily YVR-HKG route from 14 Dec 2018 - 19 Feb 2019. Pretty bit capacity boost up from the 332.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/280980/hong-kong-airlines-schedules-a350-vancouver-service-in-w18/

Hopefully we see them bring it back again for S19.

I was so curious about how the DUB flight and the extra 3x weekly flight will go, so I gathered all the mainline long-hual frequency changes from AC:



Curious as to how you pulled all the data, do you have a script, or just a lot of time on your hands?

excel
Oct 12, 2018, 9:14 PM
LH to MUC is going A346 next summer though. Addition of first class service. Similar seat count.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/280949/lufthansa-s19-long-haul-changes-as-of-10oct18/

Awesome! I love this beast and miss the days working on the ramp at YVR and watching it taxi out.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 13, 2018, 12:33 AM
Awesome! I love this beast and miss the days working on the ramp at YVR and watching it taxi out.

Yes. Nice shape! Very sleek... another plane getting rarer and rarer these days.

And the return of F class on the route.

LeftCoaster
Oct 13, 2018, 12:47 AM
Yes. And you don't have to call me a pro....;)

https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/company/alliances/joint-ventures.html

As for Swiss taking over, it's a long shot. Swiss doesn't do seasonal long haul.

Well you are a pro aren't you? Don't you work in the aviation industry in some capacity?

Don't misconstrue my acknowledgement of your bias towards YUL as a slight to your industry knowledge, I'm well aware you are quite informed.

Yes. Nice shape! Very sleek... another plane getting rarer and rarer these days.

It's only until August though, so not sure if it'll stick around all summer.

Either way very happy to see such a graceful plane back.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 13, 2018, 2:56 AM
YVR has a fantastic array of different aircraft flying to Europe.

Next summer will have 388, 744, 346, 343, 332, 789, 788, 75W, 772, 763

At this time there will be 103 flights per week to Europe to 10 airports on 11 carriers.

SpongeG
Oct 13, 2018, 5:13 AM
saw this on facebook today

Air Canada Increases Frequency to Popular Destinations in 2019
October 12, 2018 · Clayton Wong

Seeing the world just got easier.

This week, Air Canada announced four new changes to their YVR network of weekly flights. Beginning in 2019, increased service to India, Australia, Switzerland, and Japan will allow for more non-stop opportunities to fly from Vancouver around the globe.

The expansion of Air Canada’s services to Vancouver marks another important step in the growth of YVR’s biggest carrier. In 2017, Air Canada grew by 8.9% at YVR, bringing an additional 956,000 passengers through Vancouver. Since then, they have launched five new international destinations and four new U.S. destinations at YVR: Paris, Frankfurt, Melbourne, Taipei, Zurich, Boston, Denver, Dallas and Sacramento.

http://www.yvr.ca/en/blog/2018/air-canada-increases-frequency-to-popular-destinations-in-2019

s211
Oct 13, 2018, 6:07 PM
Well you are a pro aren't you? Don't you work in the aviation industry in some capacity?

I thought he was a bald-faced shill for Air Canada, The Caisse, and Quebec. :shrug:

Denscity
Oct 13, 2018, 6:38 PM
AC must be pretty happy with YVR to expand to 4 different parts of the world.

thenoflyzone
Oct 13, 2018, 8:30 PM
Well you are a pro aren't you? Don't you work in the aviation industry in some capacity?

Don't misconstrue my acknowledgement of your bias towards YUL as a slight to your industry knowledge, I'm well aware you are quite informed.
.

I was joking. I don't consider myself a pro. Yes I like to stay informed, but the information doesn't come to me through secretive channels. I go get the information. Yes on occasion, I do get a local scoop about something, but other than that, I am no more informed than the rest of you.

A lot of questions can be answered with a quick search over the internet. All you have to do is look for it.

I read, stay informed, and know where to find the information I am looking for. That's all.


I thought he was a bald-faced shill for Air Canada, The Caisse, and Quebec. :shrug:

0 for 5.

Not bald, nor a shill, nor do I work for AC, the Caisse or Quebec....;)

Johnny Aussie
Oct 14, 2018, 1:04 AM
AC must be pretty happy with YVR to expand to 4 different parts of the world.

Looking at AC's YVR expansion over the past three years has been nothing short of remarkable. I think the WS expansion at YYC will only further strengthen and consolidate AC's hub at YVR. YVR's advantage over YYC is a much larger significant O&D.. not only for VFR and tourism but also a significantly larger premium base.

Of course WS will try and funnel YVR traffic through YYC which WS will no doubt be depending on to make these new routes work. WS is definitely going to depend on connecting traffic to make these new routes work. That by nature automatically puts pressure on yields from the get go.
Look at the pattern of long haul international flights out of YYC over the last 7 years.... it indicates how tricky long haul international is out of there.
Not just to Europe but Asia as well.

To Europe:
TS has reduced YYC to just 3 weekly LGW and 1 weekly AMS. TS has also reduced YVR but certainly not as much by maintaining many routes YYC lost. YVR does lose one weekly to GLA.
LH dropped YYC-FRA - meanwhile YVR gained daily MUC and a second daily FRA (on AC).
BA suspending YYC-LHR (temporarily at least) on its smallest long-haul aircraft - YVR gains an A380
AC has basically kept YYC stagnant over the last few years and have wound back services on many routes within North America. They basically only serve the two largest markets U.K. (Still by far #1) and Germany. YVR gained CDG, ZRH, DUB, second daily LHR and FRA as mentioned above.
DE, WK and KL have remained basically stagnant as well over the last few years. While all serving YVR with more frequencies except KL where YVR and YYC are equal in summer but YYC remains daily year round. However, it appears KL is rolling back YYC service back to a 333 - fewer and not fully flat J class whereas YVR back to their 772 larger J and fully lie flat.

And to Asia:
AC suspending NRT
HU reducing PEK to just 2 weekly.
YYC to Asia will have just 2 weekly flights to Asia this winter.

Meanwhile YVR has expanded to Asia/South Pacific all over the shop.

Of course some passengers will be lost to WS via YYC. The low hanging fruit lowest fare buckets may actually stimulate more travel.
But it's technically Westjet's game to lose as it gambles on building up YYC.
YYC's advantage over YVR to Europe of course is and always will be geography.
YVR's advantage over YYC to Asia of course is and always will be geography.... but YVR's much larger O&D base is more pronounced to Asia/Pacific.
I wouldn't be surprised if AC further winds back YYC and as I said at the beginning consolidates even more at YVR. YVR's strengths will probably help this work in the long run: continuing to grow, a strong economy and the lowest unemployment rate in the country.

CloudInspector
Oct 14, 2018, 3:26 AM
Johnny, while connecting traffic is definitely needed to help the YYC to Europe flights, what are your thoughts on if and when WestJet eventually starts China? I assume they’ll fly out of YVR as I can’t see many people backtracking to YYC to fly to Asia. Similar to their Hawaiian operation.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 14, 2018, 5:15 AM
Johnny, while connecting traffic is definitely needed to help the YYC to Europe flights, what are your thoughts on if and when WestJet eventually starts China? I assume they’ll fly out of YVR as I can’t see many people backtracking to YYC to fly to Asia. Similar to their Hawaiian operation.

The YVR-Asia market is just ginormous... especially China.

That cannot be ignored and would have to be factored in to any decisions made.

Again... looking at YYC-Asia, their NRT route is being suspended for 5 months and they can’t even maintain 3 weekly YYC-PEK in the winter (this drops to twice weekly for 5 months). This is more a reflection on O&D. If WS were to attempt YYC-PEK or YYC-PVG they definitely would be able to grab connections from all over Canada but the fact the largest market by far in Western Canada, YVR, is to the west makes that route that much trickier. YVR is also well connected to all the major markets domestically and to Asia on AC. In addition YVR is one of the most connected cities to the Asia Pacific in North America and by far the best of any city even remotely close in size. YYZ is also very well connected to Asia so dragging passengers across on WS to connect would be a tough sell. They’d be better off attempting their own nonstop from YYZ. But probably unlikely they would.

thenoflyzone
Oct 14, 2018, 6:23 PM
The YVR-Asia market is just ginormous... especially China.

That cannot be ignored and would have to be factored in to any decisions made.



YVR-Asia is enormous, but the list of airlines that already serve that market is equally enormous, driving down yields (which are in the toilet right now, btw)

As you said, YYC-Asia is wide open. If WS were to enter, they would have that market pretty much to themselves, especially if AC quits YYC-NRT (I don't think they will, btw) Less competition on a market inevitably drives up yields. Connections will be a big factor to fill the planes though.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 14, 2018, 9:32 PM
Yields North America —> Asia are trash. Not unique to YVR.

That certainly wouldn’t help an airline starting up into new long haul markets. And the fact they would be very reliant on connections adds further yield pressure.

There’s a reason why there are so few Asian flights from YYC.

WS would have YYC to themselves? The competition and plethora of one stop options from YYC via YVR to Asia is another huge factor.

Gordon
Oct 14, 2018, 9:42 PM
I wonder when we will see the 1st of the new major routes that Yvr is supposed to have by 2020

according to the construction updates on YVR's website the pier D expansion will open in 2020. They are starting the steel work this month. I would assue the 4 remote stand gates will be will be open well before the bridged gates will.

zahav
Oct 15, 2018, 6:25 AM
Does Canada and Singapore have the bilateral where there are open skies between the two but only non-stop? If i recall, that was the main reason SQ left in the first place, they needed the ICN stopover (or anywhere else in Asia like NRT, HKG, or TPE) to make it work. They stated they never wanted to leave YVR and the demand was good, but forcing them in those days to go non-stop made the route almost impossible

deasine
Oct 15, 2018, 7:28 AM
Does Canada and Singapore have the bilateral where there are open skies between the two but only non-stop? If i recall, that was the main reason SQ left in the first place, they needed the ICN stopover (or anywhere else in Asia like NRT, HKG, or TPE) to make it work. They stated they never wanted to leave YVR and the demand was good, but forcing them in those days to go non-stop made the route almost impossible

There's an agreement between Canada and Singapore but it is not an open skies. Meanwhile Canada does have an open skies agreement with South Korea for designated air carriers, which also includes fifth freedoms enabling onward travel of passengers and cargo, but the designated carriers include only Air Canada, Asiana, and Korean Air. Thus, SQ would not qualify to benefit under this agreement and would require the permission of formal notification by the Government of Canada or South Korea to include SQ (should SQ would want to fly ICN-YVR).

At the time, fleet restrictions and high fuel prices prohibit SQ from operating nonstop SIN-YVR. But now with the 787 (though I'm not sure if SQ's 787-10 range is possible, plus SQs 787s are configured in their "regional" configuration though still perfectly fine and competitive for long-haul), this may be much more possible.

SpongeG
Oct 15, 2018, 10:11 AM
a landing video - air france from Paris

PpATo6Y4pDU

thenoflyzone
Oct 15, 2018, 2:08 PM
At the time, fleet restrictions and high fuel prices prohibit SQ from operating nonstop SIN-YVR. But now with the 787 (though I'm not sure if SQ's 787-10 range is possible, plus SQs 787s are configured in their "regional" configuration though still perfectly fine and competitive for long-haul), this may be much more possible.

The 787-10 cannot do SIN-YVR.

If it were to happen, SQ would need to use the A350-900. They no longer have fleet restrictions, but fuel prices are up again. The longer they wait, the less likely they are to start YVR. At this point, I doubt they will. They wanted to resume non stop to LAX and EWR. They have. I think their north american plans have been realized, for now.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 16, 2018, 4:54 AM
Spent a bit of time looking at AC’s longhaul schedule for next summer and came to the conclusion YVR’s not done yet.

The days rouge doesn’t operate YVR-DUB means there are three frequencies available to possibly have a new route. Whether this stays rouge or moves to mainline is a mystery.

Why I think YVR-DUB is sticking around? When they reduced the flight from 5 weekly to 4 weekly in the system. If they were going to chop this route they wouldn’t have reduced it by one day per week they would have just chopped it altogether like NGO. KIX, CDG and ZRH will rotate through two 788s.
So what happens? Start another route (or 2)? Base one aircraft in YVR? Don’t want a plane sitting on the ground for over 24 hours!

And then there’s YVR-MEL.... is there slack in the schedule? Don’t want planes sitting on the ground all day do we now!

nname
Oct 16, 2018, 6:33 AM
Spent a bit of time looking at AC’s longhaul schedule for next summer and came to the conclusion YVR’s not done yet.

The days rouge doesn’t operate YVR-DUB means there are three frequencies available to possibly have a new route. Whether this stays rouge or moves to mainline is a mystery.

Why I think YVR-DUB is sticking around? When they reduced the flight from 5 weekly to 4 weekly in the system. If they were going to chop this route they wouldn’t have reduced it by one day per week they would have just chopped it altogether like NGO. KIX, CDG and ZRH will rotate through two 788s.
So what happens? Start another route (or 2)? Base one aircraft in YVR? Don’t want a plane sitting on the ground for over 24 hours!

And then there’s YVR-MEL.... is there slack in the schedule? Don’t want planes sitting on the ground all day do we now!

Exactly what I've observed. And notice DUB and CDG now run on the exact same day and almost the same time... they could swap the 788 to DUB and move CDG to something else?

The extra plane needed for MEL would allow a new 3x weekly ULH (plus 7x weekly transcon)... or, they could run flight 6x weekly flight to Europe or Asia (plus 3x weekly transcon).

I feel like we're going to get an answer this week.... but this week's schedule update seems to be late.... normally the new schedule should start to show up 2.5 hr ago... :(

Johnny Aussie
Oct 16, 2018, 8:00 AM
Exactly what I've observed. And notice DUB and CDG now run on the exact same day and almost the same time... they could swap the 788 to DUB and move CDG to something else?

The extra plane needed for MEL would allow a new 3x weekly ULH (plus 7x weekly transcon)... or, they could run flight 6x weekly flight to Europe or Asia (plus 3x weekly transcon).

I feel like we're going to get an answer this week.... but this week's schedule update seems to be late.... normally the new schedule should start to show up 2.5 hr ago... :(

CDG departs at 1245 and DUB departs at 1520.

CDG, ZRH and KIX all depart around 1300 (1245, 1300 or 1330) perfectly aligned for a 2 plane rotation.

Air Canada has never released all their next year summer schedules all at once. They break it up over a month or two.

LeftCoaster
Oct 16, 2018, 6:56 PM
Couldn't they run DUB with an A333 from Montreal?

YUL-YVR-DUB-YVR-YUL?

I'd much prefer they pull one of the 787s out of the east and replace it with one of the new 330s, but that seems unlikely at this point doesn't it?

whatnext
Oct 16, 2018, 7:08 PM
YVR has a fantastic array of different aircraft flying to Europe.

Next summer will have 388, 744, 346, 343, 332, 789, 788, 75W, 772, 763

At this time there will be 103 flights per week to Europe to 10 airports on 11 carriers.

Who's flying the A343?

trofirhen
Oct 16, 2018, 8:21 PM
Who's flying the A343?

I think it's Lufthansa. Correct me if I'm wrong.

canlynx
Oct 16, 2018, 8:39 PM
Who's flying the A343?

Edelweiss to Zurich

nname
Oct 16, 2018, 8:55 PM
CDG departs at 1245 and DUB departs at 1520.

CDG, ZRH and KIX all depart around 1300 (1245, 1300 or 1330) perfectly aligned for a 2 plane rotation.

Air Canada has never released all their next year summer schedules all at once. They break it up over a month or two.

DUB have a later departure, but the arrival back to YVR is in line with CDG ZRH and KIX simply because the route is slightly shorter.

And yes, nothing was changed from last night's schedule update.


Couldn't they run DUB with an A333 from Montreal?

YUL-YVR-DUB-YVR-YUL?

I'd much prefer they pull one of the 787s out of the east and replace it with one of the new 330s, but that seems unlikely at this point doesn't it?

The issue with that is... the route will need to be run daily to rotate with domestic route to YUL? Otherwise what will the plane do at YVR for the other 3 days?

I feel like it would be easier to use the 788 for DUB and convert the CDG to 333 (it would need to increase to daily though). AC already run a 333 to CDG from YUL, so instead of wasting a widebody just to do a daily YUL-YVR-YUL run (it was the case 2 years ago, not sure what the plane do for the rest of the day now), they could move it to YUL-CDG-YVR-CDG-YUL and replace the YVR-YUL with 2 7M8s? But that's just my opinion though...

LeftCoaster
Oct 16, 2018, 9:05 PM
Edelweiss to Zurich

Yep. Lufthansa is flying the 346 to Munich.

LeftCoaster
Oct 16, 2018, 9:49 PM
The issue with that is... the route will need to be run daily to rotate with domestic route to YUL? Otherwise what will the plane do at YVR for the other 3 days?

I feel like it would be easier to use the 788 for DUB and convert the CDG to 333 (it would need to increase to daily though). AC already run a 333 to CDG from YUL, so instead of wasting a widebody just to do a daily YUL-YVR-YUL run (it was the case 2 years ago, not sure what the plane do for the rest of the day now), they could move it to YUL-CDG-YVR-CDG-YUL and replace the YVR-YUL with 2 7M8s? But that's just my opinion though...

Well they could run the other 3 days as a YUL destination. Not preferred of course but they could.

I much prefer your option, would be a great answer to Westjet's recently announced Calgary 787 ops too.

thenoflyzone
Oct 16, 2018, 11:07 PM
Spent a bit of time looking at AC’s longhaul schedule for next summer and came to the conclusion YVR’s not done yet.

The days rouge doesn’t operate YVR-DUB means there are three frequencies available to possibly have a new route. Whether this stays rouge or moves to mainline is a mystery.

Why I think YVR-DUB is sticking around? When they reduced the flight from 5 weekly to 4 weekly in the system. If they were going to chop this route they wouldn’t have reduced it by one day per week they would have just chopped it altogether like NGO. KIX, CDG and ZRH will rotate through two 788s.
So what happens? Start another route (or 2)? Base one aircraft in YVR? Don’t want a plane sitting on the ground for over 24 hours!

And then there’s YVR-MEL.... is there slack in the schedule? Don’t want planes sitting on the ground all day do we now!

According to this (https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/274903/air-canada-rouge-expands-vancouver-dublin-service-in-s18/?highlight=vancouver dublin), YVR-DUB was operating 4 weekly last summer from May 25 to June 25.

The reason why YVR-DUB is still showing a Rouge 763 at 4x weekly in the schedules is because it's probably a carbon copy of last year's schedule when the route resumed in May.

It's a simple placeholder. This way, people can still book the flights, but changes remain highly likely. I still believe YVR-DUB will go A333, most likely rotated through a flight from YUL or YYZ.

As for new routes or two, seems to me if these were gonna happen, AC would have announced it by now, to go along with the presser about all the frequency increases on current routes out of YVR. I think it's highly unlikely that AC has new long haul routes coming to YVR for summer 2019. There simply aren't enough frames to make that happen, no matter how much down time the dreamliners seem to have in YVR. Don't forget, there has to be some slack in the schedules to allow for some routine maintenance of these birds as well.

AC hasn't showed us the whole story yet, most likely due to the fact that those 4 A333s haven't arrived yet. They still have a few months before they finalize the equipment/rotations, and they are most likely being prudent, making sure those frames will arrive on time before committing them to the schedule.

As for YVR-MEL, a simple domestic rotation solves that problem. YUL/YYZ-YVR-MEL-YVR-YYZ/YUL. Similar to what is done with YYZ-YVR SYD.

nname
Oct 16, 2018, 11:34 PM
According to this (https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/274903/air-canada-rouge-expands-vancouver-dublin-service-in-s18/?highlight=vancouver dublin), YVR-DUB was operating 4 weekly last summer from May 25 to June 25.

The reason why YVR-DUB is still showing a Rouge 763 at 4x weekly in the schedules is because it's probably a carbon copy of last year's schedule when the route resumed in May.

It's a simple placeholder. This way, people can still book the flights, but changes remain highly likely. I still believe YVR-DUB will go A333, most likely rotated through a flight from YUL or YYZ.

As for new routes or two, seems to me if these were gonna happen, AC would have announced it by now, to go along with the presser about all the frequency increases on current routes out of YVR. I think it's highly unlikely that AC has new long haul routes coming to YVR for summer 2019. There simply aren't enough frames to make that happen, no matter how much down time the dreamliners seem to have in YVR. Don't forget, there has to be some slack in the schedules to allow for some routine maintenance of these birds as well.

AC hasn't showed us the whole story yet, most likely due to the fact that those 4 A333s haven't arrived yet. They still have a few months before they finalize the equipment/rotations, and they are most likely being prudent, making sure those frames will arrive on time before committing them to the schedule.

As for YVR-MEL, a simple domestic rotation solves that problem. YUL/YYZ-YVR-MEL-YVR-YYZ/YUL. Similar to what is done with YYZ-YVR SYD.

YVR-DUB was 5x weekly in July-August until 2 weeks ago. I was checking the schedule every Tuesday :cool:

And adding domestic rotation will NOT solve the issue with MEL. Currently the route need one extra frame for only about 10 hours every week, and there is no spare 789 lying around to run those 10 hours because all other 789s based in YVR are doing daily runs and they are all in the sky at that time. So either one of the weekly to MEL will need to be shifted by 12 hours (which is something AC haven't done for any of their routes I believe?), or one of the 789 route need to be reduced to 6x weekly. If all MEL flight are based at YUL or YYZ, then it will use up 12 more hours, but there are still 2 planes with 3x weekly spare time left or 1 plane with 6x weekly spare time (which goes back to the first issue). So far there aren't any mainline 789 changes at YUL and YYZ that's not daily...

Also, AC don't run domestic widebody flights that are less than daily? What are they going to do for the other 3 days then?

So, either way, AC schedule change is not done yet, that's for sure.

thenoflyzone
Oct 17, 2018, 12:02 AM
YVR-DUB was 5x weekly in July-August until 2 weeks ago. I was checking the schedule every Tuesday :cool:



I know it was. You missed my point.

nname
Oct 17, 2018, 12:13 AM
I know it was. You missed my point.

Last summer it was x124 at the beginning, next summer it currently scheduled for x246.

Either way, it's not a carbon copy. They already went ahead to made some changes to it.

I agree it's just a placeholder now, as it would be impossible to run the route with Rouge based on all the changes so far (unless AC Rouge 767 can teleport). But still, if they bother to remove a day, they probably not going to cancel it. And it just looks fishy to me that they remove the day to match the operating days for CDG.

Johnny Aussie
Oct 17, 2018, 12:33 AM
Last summer it was x124 at the beginning, next summer it currently scheduled for x246.

Either way, it's not a carbon copy. They already went ahead to made some changes to it.

I agree it's just a placeholder now, as it would be impossible to run the route with Rouge based on all the changes so far (unless AC Rouge 767 can teleport). But still, if they bother to remove a day, they probably not going to cancel it. And it just looks fishy to me that they remove the day to match the operating days for CDG.

That was the clincher for me. The fact that they reduced the schedule by one day per week and they adjusted the days. If AC had no intention of flying YVR-DUB next summer they wouldn’t have adjusted the schedule they would have removed it altogether.

Air Canada’s pattern of press releases isn’t cut and dry either. If there is a significant route announcement they dont tend to lump those in with frequency increase press releases. They like to keep the fanfare at a maximum.

Summer 2019 is definitely not finalised yet.

thenoflyzone
Oct 17, 2018, 1:38 AM
It's not finalized, but I think new routes are. All that's left are frequency/equipment adjustments, which we are going to see a lot of in the next 2 months I think.

According to this (page 42) (https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/aircanada/portal/documents/PDF/en/quarterly-result/2017/2017_MDA_q4.pdf), between now and December 2019, AC mainline long haul will grow by 1 frame. (+2 B789, -5 B763, +4 A333) YYZ-VIE eats up 19 hours of that frame. Not much else they can add. Yet they still found a way to increase YVR-DEL by 3 weekly for next summer compared to last, and +2 weekly on YVR-ZRH. Where else do you see room for a new route? I dont.

The A333s cant be used for expansion as AC is retiring 5 mainline B767s next year. We already know YYZ-WAW is going back to Rouge. What we don't know is the timeline by which the 767s will leave the fleet. Will it be progressively, one at a time, or all 5 will go once the A333s are here? Will they still be here next summer, or will they be gone come May.

YYC-NRT, YYZ-MXP, YOW-FRA/LHR are all 767 routes. You can "Max" YOW-LHR (not ideal for such an important route, but you can), but not much else.

Too many question marks on these routes for there to be a new route from anywhere at the moment. The only way a new route gets announced is if it's on a narrowbody, or they cancel a widebody from somewhere else.

nname
Oct 17, 2018, 2:35 AM
It's not finalized, but I think new routes are. All that's left are frequency/equipment adjustments, which we are going to see a lot of in the next 2 months I think.

According to this (page 42) (https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/aircanada/portal/documents/PDF/en/quarterly-result/2017/2017_MDA_q4.pdf), between now and December 2019, AC mainline long haul will grow by 1 frame. YYZ-VIE eats up 19 hours of that frame. Not much else they can add. Yet they still found a way to increase YVR-DEL by 3 weekly for next summer compared to last, and +2 weekly on YVR-ZRH. Where else do you see room for a new route? I dont.

The A333s cant be used for expansion as AC is retiring 5 mainline B767s next year. We already know YYZ-WAW is going back to Rouge. What we don't know is the timeline by which the 767s will leave the fleet. Will it be progressively, one at a time, or all 5 will go once the A333s are here? Will they still be here next summer, or will they be gone come May.

YYC-NRT, YYZ-MXP, YOW-FRA/LHR are all 767s routes. You can "Max" YOW-LHR (not ideal for such an important route, but you can), but not much else.

Too many question marks on these routes for there to be a new route from anywhere at the moment.

YYZ-WAW switched from Mainline to Rouge, that's another extra mainline frame.

And the timing... I believe the 763 is only going to retire by the end of the summer peak? So if they got any 333 before that, then there's room for expansion.

What are they going to do for S20, then I'm not sure...

agamemnon
Oct 17, 2018, 3:30 AM
Longtime lurker here.

In support of YVR-DUB sharing an aircraft (a 333?) with YUL-DUB:

YVR-DUB and DUB-YVR are both currently scheduled on 1357 (albeit with Rouge 763);
YUL-DUB and DUB-YUL are both currently scheduled on 246 (albeit with 7M8).

The DUB arrival and departure times for YVR and YUL are also identical: 08:30/10:15.

So maybe the schedules have been updated, and it's just the aircraft type that's lagging behind.

thenoflyzone
Oct 17, 2018, 6:15 AM
YYZ-WAW switched from Mainline to Rouge, that's another extra mainline frame.

And the timing... I believe the 763 is only going to retire by the end of the summer peak? So if they got any 333 before that, then there's room for expansion.

What are they going to do for S20, then I'm not sure...

Kind of an important question there at the end !

"so we're going to try YVR-FCO. But past 2019, we have no more frames left to operate that route"

"Limited time only folks.....come and get it...."

AC isn't in the business of selling pumpkin spice chai lattes !

So, what are we left with: We are October 17, 2018, a date by which, historically, AC has already announced all their new long haul routes for the next summer. And also, fleet limitations.

If I were a betting man, I'd say there's not much else - long haul wise- left to come.

Speaking of Oct 17, 2018, stop stressing and go out there and smoke some, legally for a change. All will sort itself out in the next few weeks/months.

nname
Oct 17, 2018, 10:17 AM
If I were a betting man, I'd say there's not much else - long haul wise- left to come.

And so I modify my script to get all flight time and arrange them for aircraft utilization on all widebody mainline routes (including domestic and transcon), and this is what I got:

450 seater 777-300ER
Current schedule needs 8, but AC only have 7... Can't managed to squeeze them down to 7 though, but one of them barely doing any work other than YVR-YYZ-YVR

400 seater 777-300ER
Current schedule needs 10, and AC have 12... quite a bit of spare time at YYZ to swap thing around, but not enough for any long-haul. One of the plane would probably replace a 450-seater route, what about the other one??

Mainline 763
Current schedule only need 4... so 2 will get retired?

A330
Current schedule need 9, AC only have 8 with 4 on order. One plane is free on day 13, while another is indeed only doing YUL-YVR-YUL.

777-200LR
Current schedule need 6, and AC indeed have 6. Almost 3/4 day of spare time at YYZ

787-8
Current schedule need 8, and AC indeed have 8. About half of day of spare time at both YVR and YYZ each.

787-9
Current schedule need 29, and AC will have 29 after all order arrives, but then:

The widebody from EWR connects nicely to the DEL flight at YVR
AC 44 789 (247) D YVR - DEL 01:30 - 04:00 14 ...2
AC 45 789 (247) D DEL - YVR 06:10 - 07:30 13.8
AC 548 789 (247) D YVR - EWR 08:45 - 16:50 5.1
AC 549 789 (247) D EWR - YVR 18:20 - 21:10 5.8

The long hual from YUL does require 4 planes, but one of them will be sitting at YUL almost all day
AC 5 789 (247) D YUL - NRT 14:05 - 15:50 12.8 ...2
AC 6 789 (247) D NRT - YUL 17:30 - 16:30 12
AC 874 789 (247) D YUL - FRA 19:15 - 08:20 7.1
AC 875 789 (247) D FRA - YUL 10:00 - 11:40 7.7

AC 11 789 (247) D YUL - PVG 13:30 - 15:25 13.9 ...2 (!)
AC 12 789 (247) D PVG - YUL 16:50 - 18:15 13.4

The trans-con YUL-YVR flight, now a 789, does not fit within the time at YUL, but does fit nicely for YVR when it connects to the MEL flight
AC 37 789 (247) 1357 YVR - MEL 22:50 - 08:00 16.2 ...2 (!)
AC 38 789 (247) 2357 MEL - YVR 09:40 - 07:35 14.9
AC 314 789 (247) D YVR - YUL 09:10 - 16:48 4.6
AC 309 789 (247) D YUL - YVR 18:35 - 20:48 5.2

There is currently only one 789 run scheduled between YVR and YYZ, but it also does not fit within that schedule. It does connect nicely with the 3 night time ULH from YYZ though. So I put it this way
AC 46 789 (247) 1357 YYZ - BOM 21:15 - 21:30 14.8 ...2
AC 47 789 (247) 1246 BOM - YYZ 23:30 - 05:15 15.3
AC 56 789 (247) 246 YYZ - DXB 23:00 - 19:50 12.8
AC 57 789 (247) 357 DXB - YYZ 23:30 - 05:10 13.7
AC 183 789 (247) D YYZ - YVR 07:30 - 09:13 4.7
AC 112 789 (247) D YVR - YYZ 11:00 - 18:21 4.4

AC 42 789 (247) D YYZ - DEL 22:15 - 21:35 13.8 ...2
AC 43 789 (247) D DEL - YYZ 00:10 - 05:05 14.4
AC 791 789 (247) D YYZ - LAX 08:00 - 10:11 5.2
AC 792 789 (247) D LAX - YYZ 11:45 - 19:19 4.6

AC 90 789 (247) D YYZ - GRU 23:15 - 10:05 9.8 ...2
AC 91 789 (247) D GRU - YYZ 20:00 - 05:00 10
AC 737 789 (247) D YYZ - SFO 08:00 - 10:35 5.6
AC 738 789 (247) D SFO - YYZ 12:05 - 20:05 5

One plane with a whole lot (23hr!) of spare time at YVR also does not fit nicely with any of these
AC 854 789 (247) D YVR - LHR 17:50 - 11:05 9.3 ...3 (!)
AC 851 789 (247) D LHR - YYC 13:05 - 14:55 8.8
AC 850 789 (247) D YYC - LHR 18:25 - 10:00 8.6
AC 897 789 (247) D LHR - YVR 16:15 - 17:40 9.4
(note, LHR is the only 789 route from YYC, and AC does not run 789 to LHR from YYZ and YUL, so that's the only way to arrange this)

So that's it, unless some plane are going out of service, AC would have a minimum of a 77W, a 333 at YUL for day 13, and a 789 at YVR for day 246 to create new route and/or add frequency. Unless, they are going to make the plane spending lots of time on the ground?

On a side note, I think AC saved a plane by reducing the time sitting at LHR?

Johnny Aussie
Oct 17, 2018, 8:00 PM
I think Agamemnon has just solved part of the mystery. That schedule rotation with YUL is spot on. Looks like a 4/3 split with YUL on DUB.

So does YUL-DUB get rouged or does YVR - DUB and YUL - DUB get upgauged mainline.

Since the 7M8 is not an option on YVR-DUB perhaps it goes mainline 333.

That would mean YVR long haul goes 100% mainline and au revoir rouge! That would be a great outcome for service levels and solidify YVR as the second largest AC longhaul mainline hub.

And nnname... I admire your perseverance in solving the remaining long haul mysteries. Can I hire you? Love your initiative!