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thenoflyzone
Nov 1, 2018, 11:24 AM
Now official. 4x weekly. begins Sept 2019.

https://www.portseattle.org/news/singapore-airlines-announces-nonstop-service-sea-tac-airport

thenoflyzone
Nov 1, 2018, 4:09 PM
This is far from a done deal so let’s see what excitement unfolds over the next little while.

obviously not that far.....:cheers:

A slap in the face of YVRAA, that's for sure. (similar to BA choosing Charleston over St. Louis)

SEA catching up to YVR, slowly but surely. When the new IAF opens, more international routes will open up at SEA, further solidifying the Emerald City as a TPAC hub.

AC wont be launching SIN anytime soon. No planes left. Neither will SQ in the short to medium term (according to me, although several disagree).

One thing is for sure, this came out of left field. So does SQ have another surprise in store? If so, how likely is it to be SIN-YVR?

mezzanine
Nov 1, 2018, 4:28 PM
obviously not that far.....:cheers:

A slap in the face of YVRAA, that's for sure. (similar to BA choosing Charleston over St. Louis)

SEA catching up to YVR, slowly but surely. When the new IAF opens, more international routes will open up at SEA, further solidifying the Emerald City as a TPAC hub.

AC wont be launching SIN anytime soon. No planes left. Neither will SQ in the short to medium term (according to me, although several disagree).

One thing is for sure, this came out of left field. So does SQ have another surprise in store? If so, how likely is it to be SIN-YVR?


Not totally out of left field. congrats to SEA, YVR would need to stay on its toes to keep up.

2019 will be an interesting year for PNW traffic, I still think that AC or SQ service to SIN will happen in the near term at YVR but we'll see what happens..

Denscity
Nov 1, 2018, 4:47 PM
obviously not that far.....:cheers:

A slap in the face of YVRAA, that's for sure. (similar to BA choosing Charleston over St. Louis)

SEA catching up to YVR, slowly but surely. When the new IAF opens, more international routes will open up at SEA, further solidifying the Emerald City as a TPAC hub.

AC wont be launching SIN anytime soon. No planes left. Neither will SQ in the short to medium term (according to me, although several disagree).

One thing is for sure, this came out of left field. So does SQ have another surprise in store? If so, how likely is it to be SIN-YVR?

Let’s compare the two cities now for international traffic to see just how far behind Seattle is now.

vanlaw
Nov 1, 2018, 7:30 PM
SEA catching up to YVR, slowly but surely. When the new IAF opens, more international routes will open up at SEA, further solidifying the Emerald City as a TPAC hub.

Yes, until the new expansion is done, departing and arriving internationally at SEA south satellite is just a horrible experience. They are out of gates most of the day, if a flight is delayed when you land, sit in the tarmac till the gate clears, immigration lines are outrageous sometimes, people being stacked up in the hallways immediately outside the jet bridge. I'm sure this has limited SEA's international route expansion past few years.

Cage
Nov 1, 2018, 11:51 PM
Well if it is 3x YUL-DUB on an A333 Vs 4x on a 737MAX its not that big a boost. 795 seats Vs 676 seats.

Will be interesting to see what happens. I personally feel the Max8 was well suited for YUL-DUB. The A333 might be overkill, even if it is only 3x weekly.

YVR-DUB is staying Rouge guys, I don't see it changing to a 333.

Planes need down time too, especially the 767 and will be needed for flex.

YUL-DUB will actually be moving up to 5x weekly 7M8 and its already loaded in the system so I doubt any rotation will happen.

Nobody knows when those extra 333 are coming in however I know they will be arriving from Singapore Airlines and will need time to be refurbished into the AC brand. However looking at YUL-ALG, they are not selling J and the seat map looks exactly like SQ layout.

The new 333s AC is getting will spend the summer period flying mainline routes as rouge style seating. These aircraft will not have the signature suite, so expect to see them on routes to DUB that are usually the domain of Rouge. Once these 4 gently used 333s get the full Signature Suite installed, I would expect the routes like DUB to return to Rouge or mainline max8/9.

Johnny Aussie
Nov 2, 2018, 2:12 AM
Not totally out of left field. congrats to SEA, YVR would need to stay on its toes to keep up.

2019 will be an interesting year for PNW traffic, I still think that AC or SQ service to SIN will happen in the near term at YVR but we'll see what happens..

Greetings from Singapore... just flew in last night on one of SQ’s shiny new A350s ;)

Yes even Craig Richmond acknowledged SEA will provide great competition. But again nothing new. Ever since the mid 80s.

YVR will need to remain competitive. A lot of that is out of anybody's control.

The announcement by SQ does not rule out service to YVR as well.

So now SEA will have 19 long haul carriers of which 7 don't fly to YVR (that's as of next Sept 2019 and a lot can happen between now and then too ;))

YVR will have 25 long haul carriers of which 13 don't fly to SEA.

YVR remains one of the best internationally connected airports in NA (not just for its size but overall too) and will continue to be.... competition is nothing new to YVR and is still in a great position. Future is bright!

For example, regardless if YVR overtakes ORD in total international passengers this year (YTD it has) being that close to their number is crazy.

Of course when you’re used to “having it all” and your peers start to acquire things the first reaction is the sky is falling!

osirisboy
Nov 5, 2018, 4:17 AM
http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/2018/09-september/traffic-update-september-2018-website.pdf

Just shy of 20 million YTD

zahav
Nov 5, 2018, 7:01 AM
I have always been interested by the aircraft rotations that some people on the Canada forum seem to know about. So I did a spreadsheet of YVR's widebody international operations next summer and have been able to pair most of the aicraft/route rotations (actually wasn't that hard when you line up all arrivals and departures and organize by aircraft type and times, the kind of snap together in logical pairs).

However I have found a couple gaps which makes me think additional routes might be coming or at least some revised departure times. If anyone wants to see the spreadsheet let me know and I'll email it to you:

788
The KIX/CDG/ZRH all cycle together, so that is two aircrafts. Then there is LHR and BNE. That is where something seems to be missing. Both flights arrive in YVR in the morning (AC36 from BNE at 710 and AC855 from LHR at 1130. But the departures aren't until last at night (AC35 to BNE at 2350 and AC896 to LHR at 2105). There are no domestic or transborder routes using the 788, so that is a lot of downtime of those frames I feel like. Seems like AC will either add a domestic roation to YYZ for instance? It just seems like a massive under-utilization for a new aircraft.

789
There are lots of these route pairings at YVR next summer. SO many of the arrival and departure times are close so not sure exactly what pairs with what but it doesn't matter, the final # of pairs matches up. It looks like there will be ten 789 daily flight pairings. The one oddity is the aircraft that does MEL. There are 3 empty holes in the schedule where this aircraft isn't doing anything (that flight operates 4 weekly). It isn't even operating a scheduled flight to YYZ or YUL, so that means it just remains on ground all day? Like the 788 comment above, I can't see them let this aircraft sit idle that long. The MEL route will be the only 789 route that isn't daily.

773
All pairings line up, there's a couple of lengthy remains on ground but nothing that crazy, There's 6 daily 773 paired routes per day.

772
We only get one of these aircraft, and they dedicated to YYZ-YVR-SYD and back. Cycling is >730
900>
>2205
2350>

333
This one is 4 weekly and naturally cycles with the YUL route, easy peezy.

So the questions at this point are the slack in the 788 and the missing 789 routing. Right now the lowest frequency routes are MEL and CDG at 4 per week, which is still pretty good. Anyone have any ideas what will be done with the extra 788/789 capacity?

Disclaimer, I have no idea if my work is correct, I Might be missing a super obvious variable that throws it all away, but everything else lines up so these discrepancies seem legit

nname
Nov 5, 2018, 8:33 AM
788
The KIX/CDG/ZRH all cycle together, so that is two aircrafts. Then there is LHR and BNE. That is where something seems to be missing. Both flights arrive in YVR in the morning (AC36 from BNE at 710 and AC855 from LHR at 1130. But the departures aren't until last at night (AC35 to BNE at 2350 and AC896 to LHR at 2105). There are no domestic or transborder routes using the 788, so that is a lot of downtime of those frames I feel like. Seems like AC will either add a domestic roation to YYZ for instance? It just seems like a massive under-utilization for a new aircraft.

The YVR-LHR rotates with YYZ... and yes, there haven't been a route that can rotate with BNE so far. But then, the 788 fleet is pretty much fully utilized, with down time of about half a day each at YVR and YYZ. So perhaps AC did it on purpose in case of aircraft issues or delays?

AC 35 788 (214) D YVR - BNE 23:50 - 07:25 14.6 ...2
AC 36 788 (214) D BNE - YVR 10:40 - 07:10 13.5

AC 39 788 (214) 12346 YVR - KIX 13:30 - 15:45 10.3 ...2
AC 40 788 (214) 23457 KIX - YVR 17:15 - 10:10 8.9
AC 802 788 (214) 24567 YVR - ZRH 13:00 - 07:55 9.9
AC 803 788 (214) 13567 ZRH - YVR 10:05 - 11:25 10.3
AC 806 788 (214) 1357 YVR - CDG 12:45 - 07:35 9.8
AC 807 788 (214) 1246 CDG - YVR 09:25 - 10:20 9.9

AC 896 788 (214) D YVR - LHR 21:05 - 14:20 9.3 ...2
AC 859 788 (214) D LHR - YYZ 18:00 - 20:40 7.7
AC 868 788 (214) D YYZ - LHR 09:10 - 21:00 6.8
AC 855 788 (214) D LHR - YVR 10:05 - 11:30 9.4

AC 894 788 (214) D YYZ - MXP 20:45 - 10:30 7.8 ...2
AC 895 788 (214) D MXP - YYZ 12:10 - 15:00 8.8
AC 739 788 (214) D YYZ - SFO 18:45 - 21:12 5.5
AC 754 788 (214) D SFO - YYZ 22:45 - 06:37 4.9


789
There are lots of these route pairings at YVR next summer. SO many of the arrival and departure times are close so not sure exactly what pairs with what but it doesn't matter, the final # of pairs matches up. It looks like there will be ten 789 daily flight pairings. The one oddity is the aircraft that does MEL. There are 3 empty holes in the schedule where this aircraft isn't doing anything (that flight operates 4 weekly). It isn't even operating a scheduled flight to YYZ or YUL, so that means it just remains on ground all day? Like the 788 comment above, I can't see them let this aircraft sit idle that long. The MEL route will be the only 789 route that isn't daily.

What I came up with for the 789 at YVR:

AC 3 789 (247) D YVR - NRT 13:25 - 15:15 9.8 ...2
AC 4 789 (247) D NRT - YVR 16:50 - 09:25 8.6
AC 17 789 (247) D YVR - TPE 11:10 - 14:15 12.1
AC 18 789 (247) D TPE - YVR 15:55 - 11:45 10.8

AC 44 789 (247) D YVR - DEL 01:30 - 04:00 14 ...2
AC 45 789 (247) D DEL - YVR 06:10 - 07:30 13.8
AC 548 789 (247) D YVR - EWR 08:45 - 16:50 5.1
AC 549 789 (247) D EWR - YVR 18:20 - 21:10 5.8

AC 63 789 (247) D YVR - ICN 11:00 - 13:55 10.9 ...1
AC 64 789 (247) D ICN - YVR 15:25 - 09:15 9.8

AC 92 789 (247) 1357 YYZ - SCL - EZE 21:40 - 13:00 14.3 ...2
AC 93 789 (247) 1246 EZE - SCL - YYZ 15:00 - 05:00 15
AC 56 789 (247) 246 YYZ - DXB 23:00 - 19:50 12.8
AC 57 789 (247) 357 DXB - YYZ 23:30 - 05:10 13.7
AC 183 789 (247) D YYZ - YVR 07:30 - 09:13 4.7
AC 112 789 (247) D YVR - YYZ 11:00 - 18:21 4.4

AC 840 789 (247) D YVR - FRA 13:25 - 08:05 9.7 ...1
AC 841 789 (247) D FRA - YVR 10:15 - 11:05 9.8

AC 37 789 (247) 1357 YVR - MEL 22:50 - 08:00 16.2 ...2
AC 38 789 (247) 2357 MEL - YVR 09:40 - 07:35 14.9
AC 314 789 (247) D YVR - YUL 09:10 - 16:48 4.6
AC 309 789 (247) D YUL - YVR 18:35 - 20:48 5.2

AC 854 789 (247) D YVR - LHR 17:50 - 11:05 9.3 ...3
AC 851 789 (247) D LHR - YYC 13:05 - 14:55 8.8
AC 850 789 (247) D YYC - LHR 18:25 - 10:00 8.6
AC 897 789 (247) D LHR - YVR 16:15 - 17:40 9.4

And yes, I cannot find a use for the other 3 days of the MEL flight, and the EWR/YUL flight can't do anything else other than connecting to the DEL/MEL flights at YVR...

As for aircraft sitting idle.. the last pair YVR-LHR-YYC-LHR-YYC seems to be sitting idle for pretty much 23hr everyday.

connect2source
Nov 5, 2018, 1:04 PM
Icelandair to acquire WOW air. Wonder how this will affect WOW's YVR plans?

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/11/05/1644890/0/en/Icelandair-Group-acquires-Wow-air.html

deasine
Nov 5, 2018, 1:20 PM
Icelandair to acquire WOW air. Wonder how this will affect WOW's YVR plans?

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/11/05/1644890/0/en/Icelandair-Group-acquires-Wow-air.html

Just beat me it. In the short term, nothing probably but I would expect synergies and capacity cuts for following seasons.

CareerShow
Nov 5, 2018, 6:36 PM
Sea-tac gaining ground on YVR with regard to Asian based carriers...add JAL to the list of carriers to resume flying next year. Olympus is falling!

On a serious note, does anyone have any verifiable insight into whether or not there is chance YVR lands Singapore airlines? It would of course be great if AC started the route as well, but the addition of a new carrier would be nice.

agamemnon
Nov 5, 2018, 10:40 PM
I love the precision and clarity of your analyses, nname!

One observation: doesn't the YVR-LHR-YYZ-LHR-YVR pairing take 3 days? That would of course leave the 788 schedule one frame short. Perhaps the YYZ-SFO-YYZ turn will be operated by something else; it's the most "flexible" route in the mix.

Zooming out, my overall sense with this year's summer schedule is that AC is "cleaning up" and "refining" (i.e. smoothing out rough edges, and making all the pieces fit together more closely) after a period of growth and experimentation, and as widebody deliveries wind down. The precise sharing of two frames among CDG/ZRH/KIX being one example; dropping BOM and pairing DXB with SCL-EZE being another.

With that in mind, the three days when MEL doesn't operate stick out like a sore thumb - it's the most jarring "hole" remaining in an otherwise coherent picture. AKL or SIN seem like they might fit in nicely... Who knows.

Looking forward to seeing what shows up in tomorrow's update!

nname
Nov 5, 2018, 10:51 PM
I love the precision and clarity of your analyses, nname!

One observation: doesn't the YVR-LHR-YYZ-LHR-YVR pairing take 3 days? That would of course leave the 788 schedule one frame short. Perhaps the YYZ-SFO-YYZ turn will be operated by something else; it's the most "flexible" route in the mix.

Hmm... You're right. Perhaps they'll need to shift the MXP back by ~1hr and rotate like this:


AC 896 788 (214) D YVR - LHR 21:05 - 14:20 9.3 ...4
AC 859 788 (214) D LHR - YYZ 18:00 - 20:40 7.7
AC 894 788 (214) D YYZ - MXP 20:45 - 10:30 7.8
AC 895 788 (214) D MXP - YYZ 12:10 - 15:00 8.8
AC 739 788 (214) D YYZ - SFO 18:45 - 21:12 5.5
AC 754 788 (214) D SFO - YYZ 22:45 - 06:37 4.9
AC 868 788 (214) D YYZ - LHR 09:10 - 21:00 6.8
AC 855 788 (214) D LHR - YVR 10:05 - 11:30 9.4


If that's the case, seems like all 788 would be based at YVR, so it make sense for the BNE to stay on the ground and substitute into any other rotation if necessary. And for the YYZ-SFO, if the plane was really late or have issue, they could always substitute the SFO flight with something else and have time to rectify it before the next flight back to LHR?

trofirhen
Nov 6, 2018, 12:27 AM
Sea-tac gaining ground on YVR with regard to Asian based carriers...add JAL to the list of carriers to resume flying next year. Olympus is falling!

On a serious note, does anyone have any verifiable insight into whether or not there is chance YVR lands Singapore airlines? It would of course be great if AC started the route as well, but the addition of a new carrier would be nice.

Speaking of a new carrier, TK would be a great one to have. There are all kinds of murmurs about it coming to YVR in 2019, but Ottawa keeps - seemingly -slowing things up.
Perhaps this is to protect traffic out of YYZ and / or YUL, but at any rate, it is all too often "The Canadian Way." TK apparently said that if they don't get YVR, they'll fly to SEA instead.
If that happened, SEA would have two ME destinations whereas YVR would have none .... and that would be a real shame IMHO

Gordon
Nov 6, 2018, 12:32 AM
I wonder we are going to see the first of these 7 or 8 major distentions by 2020 that yvr was talking about earlier in the year.

The airport is certainly busy last Thursday the line up to get my bagage tag for my west Jet flight was 30 - 35 mins.

agamemnon
Nov 6, 2018, 2:28 AM
Originally posted by nname
If that's the case, seems like all 788 would be based at YVR, so it make sense for the BNE to stay on the ground and substitute into any other rotation if necessary. And for the YYZ-SFO, if the plane was really late or have issue, they could always substitute the SFO flight with something else and have time to rectify it before the next flight back to LHR?

It definitely looks like the 788 fleet is to be Vancouver based for S19, so ground time in between the BNE turns would be a logical choice.

Somewhat OT: it's interesting that AC seems to have made some effort to consolidate the 788s in YVR, with the 333s playing a similar role in YUL (the seat count is about equal, I believe?)... Except, since the 333s can't do YUL-NRT nor YUL-PVG, they had to make those routes 789 (instead of 788 like last year). If this is intended as a (relatively) permanent move, it will have implications for what ultimately happens to the 763 holdouts, specifically YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR and YOW-FRA (always a popular topic of discussion :D). YOW-LHR/FRA could eventually be covered by the extra 333s coming into the fleet: b/c with YUL-LHR a 333, it would be easy to rotate to the aircraft in. But how would you get a 788 onto YYC-NRT if the fleet is YVR based? I doubt AC would run a 788 from YVR to YYC... so then does YVR-NRT go 788, or does YYC-LHR go 788...?

I also wonder whether the fleet base allocations (~ 788 in YVR; 333 in YUL; 77W/77L in YYZ; 789 everywhere) will be the same in a "mature" winter schedule, or whether they'll switch it up. (That's a long way off, though!)

Alexcaban
Nov 6, 2018, 5:33 PM
It definitely looks like the 788 fleet is to be Vancouver based for S19, so ground time in between the BNE turns would be a logical choice.

Somewhat OT: it's interesting that AC seems to have made some effort to consolidate the 788s in YVR, with the 333s playing a similar role in YUL (the seat count is about equal, I believe?)... Except, since the 333s can't do YUL-NRT nor YUL-PVG, they had to make those routes 789 (instead of 788 like last year). If this is intended as a (relatively) permanent move, it will have implications for what ultimately happens to the 763 holdouts, specifically YYC-NRT, YOW-LHR and YOW-FRA (always a popular topic of discussion :D). YOW-LHR/FRA could eventually be covered by the extra 333s coming into the fleet: b/c with YUL-LHR a 333, it would be easy to rotate to the aircraft in. But how would you get a 788 onto YYC-NRT if the fleet is YVR based? I doubt AC would run a 788 from YVR to YYC... so then does YVR-NRT go 788, or does YYC-LHR go 788...?

I also wonder whether the fleet base allocations (~ 788 in YVR; 333 in YUL; 77W/77L in YYZ; 789 everywhere) will be the same in a "mature" winter schedule, or whether they'll switch it up. (That's a long way off, though!)

Not equal. 788 (255 seats), 333 (292 seats). 789 and 333 are pretty equal.

thenoflyzone
Nov 6, 2018, 7:29 PM
Speaking of a new carrier, TK would be a great one to have. There are all kinds of murmurs about it coming to YVR in 2019, but Ottawa keeps - seemingly -slowing things up.
Perhaps this is to protect traffic out of YYZ and / or YUL, but at any rate, it is all too often "The Canadian Way." TK apparently said that if they don't get YVR, they'll fly to SEA instead.
If that happened, SEA would have two ME destinations whereas YVR would have none .... and that would be a real shame IMHO

TK was given 9x weekly frequencies to Canada. TK are the ones that chose to fly to YYZ and YUL.

It's not the govt of Canada that told them to start YUL. Therefore the government of Canada is not protecting YUL/YYZ, as they already serve those 2 cities. The govnt of Canada is protecting the Canadian market as a whole by limiting frequency between the two countries. Not just YYZ/YUL.

From my readings on this matter over on airliners, apparently TK has been granted 3 additional weekly frequencies to Canada. Let's see what they choose to do with those frequencies. All indications point to YVR service.

Lack of long haul frames is a reason they haven't announced the route yet.

Could also be they are waiting to relocate to the new IST airport before announcing service. Another reason for the delay might be that TK wants more frequencies, because their priority might be to increase YYZ to daily, all the while wanting to start at least 3x weekly service to YVR.

trofirhen
Nov 7, 2018, 5:06 AM
TK was given 9x weekly frequencies to Canada. TK are the ones that chose to fly to YYZ and YUL.

It's not the govt of Canada that told them to start YUL. Therefore the government of Canada is not protecting YUL/YYZ, as they already serve those 2 cities. The govnt of Canada is protecting the Canadian market as a whole by limiting frequency between the two countries. Not just YYZ/YUL.

From my readings on this matter over on airliners, apparently TK has been granted 3 additional weekly frequencies to Canada. Let's see what they choose to do with those frequencies. All indications point to YVR service.

Lack of long haul frames is a reason they haven't announced the route yet.

Could also be they are waiting to relocate to the new IST airport before announcing service. Another reason for the delay might be that TK wants more frequencies, because their priority might be to increase YYZ to daily, all the while wanting to start at least 3x weekly service to YVR.

Thank you for that explanation. However, if they use up most of those extra frequencies to go YYZ daily, and still do YVR 3x weekly, wouldn't that necessitate a new bilateral?
And just how receptive is Ottawa to renegotiating a new bilateral? From past experience, it seems that they're very conservitative in allowing more frequencies (except in areas where there are open skies policies), and Turkey is outside any such area. // Also, if the limit is 9 per week, to protect the Canadian market, and given that AC dropped IST, couldn't TK pick up the frequencies AC dropped? This would allow YYZ daily and YVR 3x weekly, would it not, or am I wrong? Thanks.

nname
Nov 7, 2018, 4:43 PM
Some codeshare news:

https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2018-232

WS to codeshare with QF for Australia-Canada and Australia-USA flights.
QF to codeshare with WS for flights within Canada and Canada-USA flights.

https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2018-231

9W to codeshare with HX for Hong Kong-Canada flights.

nname
Nov 13, 2018, 6:02 AM
Tweet from YVR last week (https://twitter.com/yvrairport/status/1060238967235170305), new gate 56, 57 area:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dra4pPcVAAABHW3.jpg

So this is the permanent remote stand waiting area, replacing gate 59?

(note the sign, going up the escalator for the rest of the D gates.. so this is a level below inspection and the other gates)

osirisboy
Nov 13, 2018, 6:45 AM
Tweet from YVR last week (https://twitter.com/yvrairport/status/1060238967235170305), new gate 56, 57 area:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dra4pPcVAAABHW3.jpg

So this is the permanent remote stand waiting area, replacing gate 59?

(note the sign, going up the escalator for the rest of the D gates.. so this is a level below inspection and the other gates)

All that for a remote stand? Jesus! they may as well just build a regular gate

Canadian74
Nov 13, 2018, 7:21 PM
Someone send that pic to YYC, they still don't know how to do proper seating

Gordon
Nov 14, 2018, 12:05 AM
That is a very nice looking waiting area for a remote stand that may not be used all that frequently. are any of the east apron remote stands in use ?

LeftCoaster
Nov 14, 2018, 1:28 AM
Now official. 4x weekly. begins Sept 2019.

https://www.portseattle.org/news/singapore-airlines-announces-nonstop-service-sea-tac-airport

Not going to lie this one hurts. As someone who used to live in Singapore and goes back from time to time I would have surely paid the premium to fly direct.

Big win for Seattle and thenoflyzone.

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/2018/09-september/traffic-update-september-2018-website.pdf

Just shy of 20 million YTD

Yikes, another month of below annualized growth.

I know were building off big numbers from last year but this really does look like the end of the runaway growth train, at least for the time being.

Some codeshare news:

https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/ruling/a-2018-232
9W to codeshare with HX for Hong Kong-Canada flights.

Hmm well hopefully this will help HX get their frequencies back up. They just extended their frequency reductions into April of next year:
https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/281355/hong-kong-airlines-extends-vancouver-reductions-in-1h19/

WarrenC12
Nov 14, 2018, 3:09 AM
Weird to build that remote area for 2 gates. I assume they know what they are doing. Cool that the buses are electric!

osirisboy
Nov 14, 2018, 4:49 AM
Yeah seems like Asia has slowed down but a lot growth continuing in Europe and of course misc/Mexico

trofirhen
Nov 14, 2018, 6:20 AM
Seattle getting SQL nonstop, (given that SIN is a 'crown jewel' destination), plus the slowdown in YVR growth are a double kick in the stomach for YVR at the moment, it's true.
However, the purpose of this post is not to let pessimism creep in. Looking at the two airports globally, it is surprising that YVR is doing as well as it is, despite any setbacks.
OK, Seattle got Emirates, now SQL, and has GDL. Good for SEA, but first, remember that it is a market of at least one million more than Vancouver to start with.

Secondly, the Seattle economy makes Vancouver rather pale in comparison. In addition to the big Seattle companies themselves: Boeing, Amazon, and all the high-tech, that city is an economic powerhouse. Vancouver? Sure, the film industry, gaming, and a large "resort" component, but nothing like the money-making element and tech wealth of Seattle.

What else has Vancouver got that Seattle hasn't got? More routes to second-tier Chinese cities, Manila, and Australia and New Zealand all sown up. Not to mention Delhi.
Vancouver had Frankfurt years before Seatlle did, and even though both AF and BA (yes, BA!)were awarded Seattle before YVR, Vancouver seems to outperform on Europe.

Copenhagen on SAS was a leader in Seattle for decades due to Seattle being a "Scandinavian" town, but even that has been discontinued.
Now we're waiting in the wings for TK, which wants YVR, but will fly to Seattle if Ottawa won't give them any more Canadian frequencies.

And there's all this ongoing talk of Brazil buzzing around. That would please Craig righmond no end, as his goal is to make YVR an Asia-Latin America connector.
I think it's certain that SEA will catch up to YVR internationally; the key is that they do not surpass it. Staying on top is within YVR's grasp, as long as Ottawa relaxes its tight ass a bit.

nname
Nov 14, 2018, 6:46 AM
Yeah seems like Asia has slowed down but a lot growth continuing in Europe and of course misc/Mexico

Remember though, for the first 2 weeks of September, all KIX flights were cancelled. That's a loss of ~12 round trips flights (although there are 2 one-way NGO->YVR flights to replace these round-trips).

The BC forest fire still affecting regional flights into September.

Tropical storm to Hawaii also affect trans-boarder number, as I remember both AC and WS had cancelled flights.

So in short, there were still a lot of cancelled flights in early September.

This, plus the removal of one-stop MNL-YVR-YYZ... I wonder if there is actually more Asia-Pacific capacity in September compared to last year...


What else has Vancouver got that Seattle hasn't got? More routes to second-tier Chinese cities, Manila, and Australia and New Zealand all sown up. Not to mention Delhi.

PR is also looking at MNL-SEA ;)

PR earlier wanted to start MNL-YVR-ORD and/or MNL-YVR-IAH... I think that fell through?

trofirhen
Nov 14, 2018, 7:42 AM
PR is also looking at MNL-SEA ;)

PR earlier wanted to start MNL-YVR-ORD and/or MNL-YVR-IAH... I think that fell through?

Yikes! Either SEA is catching up to where it would ordinarily be, and/or YVR has some more expanding to do. This, and SQL are sudden onsets. Just hope YVR gets TK.

officedweller
Nov 14, 2018, 9:06 AM
Weird to build that remote area for 2 gates. I assume they know what they are doing. Cool that the buses are electric!

There will be 13 remote stands accessed through the 2 gates:
3 international
10 transborder

http://www.yvr.ca/en/passengers/construction/major-projects/remote-stand-operations

Klazu
Nov 14, 2018, 2:44 PM
Yikes! Either SEA is catching up to where it would ordinarily be, and/or YVR has some more expanding to do. This, and SQL are sudden onsets. Just hope YVR gets TK.

Never stop concern trolling, trofirhen. It's just so fun. :D

Gordon
Nov 14, 2018, 3:12 PM
I would assume the trans-border remote stands will be reached through gate E 85. Ia there a hold room for e 85 like d 56-57?

Johnny Aussie
Nov 14, 2018, 10:46 PM
Some people must just wake up and think how can I be miserable today.

Comparing YVR and SEA YTD to 30 SEP 2018:

SEA Intl up 7.0% up 276,573 to 4.21 million
YVR Intl up 9.4% up 899,170 to 10.45 million

Taking out "transborder" (USA for YVR and Canada only for SEA)
SEA is still at only 3.0M
YVR is at 5.6M

If you want to compare long-haul international, technically for SEA we should remove Mexico as well as that is also transborder with their own unique relationship. Even taking out transborder YVR is more than double SEA for intl passengers and the gap is actually widening this year. That’s right it’s WIDENING by a huge number.

So in 2018 so far YVR international is still growing way faster than SEA in both % terms and aggregate pax numbers. And Sept 2018 YVR was stronger in growth % and pax numbers.

SEA, although it has just huge numbers, is still very much a domestic airport. 89% of all pax are domestic compared to less than 50% for YVR.

Yes SEA is getting some new routes too...

Daily JAL ato NRT
Daily DL to KIX
4 x weekly CX to HKG
4 x weekly SQ to SIN

But SEA also recently lost DL to HKG and flights to CGN and MUC.

Look what YVR has gained in the past few years... YVR is not just sitting around watching the grass grow but SEA is definitely a serious competitor... always has been. Nothing new.

I’m sure SEA will get plenty of new routes in the future just like YVR will... but as you can see... intl at YVR is still more than double that of SEA and the gap is widening this year. SEA intl may grow faster than YVR next year but realistically how long would it take SEA to catch up to YVR’s numbers? Think about it.

So hope this helps...

Take some deep breaths... relax and try and have a good night’s sleep tonight.

Galaxy
Nov 15, 2018, 3:35 AM
There are tons of these people[the ones that wake up and are just miserable] everywhere. Lol! :runaway: and or :whistle: is my strategy to deal with them.

Johnny Aussie
Nov 15, 2018, 6:12 AM
There are tons of these people[the ones that wake up and are just miserable] everywhere. Lol! :runaway: and or :whistle: is my strategy to deal with them.

Good strategy and I usually do the same.

So many of the stupid questions asked on here can be answered in the same amount of time it would take to type the question. A simple search and voila.

Just a simple search for stats (facts) and one will see YVR is doing very well.

Back in the 80s “people were flooding over the border” to fly out of Seattle or Bellingham and YVR was doomed to whither away... look where we are 30 years later....

casper
Nov 16, 2018, 3:07 AM
Someone send that pic to YYC, they still don't know how to do proper seating

YVR only installed one cup holder for every two seats. If YYC wanted to be an over achier, they could do better.

YVR is also missing charging stations.

Vagabond
Nov 16, 2018, 3:29 AM
On the topic of cross-border competition for YVR, Alaska Air has started taking reservations out of Everett (PAE) from Feb 2019 (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/alaska-airlines-starts-taking-reservations-for-flights-out-of-everetts-paine-field/). Some pretty decent promo fares are on offer to the standard US West Coast & Southwest destinations, and no need to brave Seattle traffic! All the routes flown by Alaska to/from PAE are already served direct from YVR (I had been crossing my fingers for a non-stop to ONT, but no luck). The other bummer is that (it appears) Southwest has scrapped their previously stated plans to serve PAE as well. United's launch date is also still TBC.

Personally, I feel the more capacity in the overall Pacific NW airline industry, the better. There are several key destinations in the Western US which could use some serious competition for YVR-based travel dollars, especially during peak seasons like Christmas and Spring Break.

stiffdeadman
Nov 16, 2018, 4:45 AM
On the topic of cross-border competition for YVR, Alaska Air has started taking reservations out of Everett (PAE) from Feb 2019 (https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/alaska-airlines-starts-taking-reservations-for-flights-out-of-everetts-paine-field/). Some pretty decent promo fares are on offer to the standard US West Coast & Southwest destinations, and no need to brave Seattle traffic! All the routes flown by Alaska to/from PAE are already served direct from YVR (I had been crossing my fingers for a non-stop to ONT, but no luck). The other bummer is that (it appears) Southwest has scrapped their previously stated plans to serve PAE as well. United's launch date is also still TBC.

Personally, I feel the more capacity in the overall Pacific NW airline industry, the better. There are several key destinations in the Western US which could use some serious competition for YVR-based travel dollars, especially during peak seasons like Christmas and Spring Break.

Fares are quite expensive other then the promo ones. Yes it was a bummer that Southwest decided to sell their 5 slots to Alaska. I guess they figured it wasn't worth it to staff a new station for just 5 flights with no real possibility of expansion since the airport is already capped out. Alaska benefits going from their initial 13 to 18 daily flights.

Canadian74
Nov 16, 2018, 6:24 PM
YVR only installed one cup holder for every two seats. If YYC wanted to be an over achier, they could do better.

YVR is also missing charging stations.

let's not get too ahead, YYC doesn't even have seats, so even if they can get that it would be an accomplishment for them :haha:

craneSpotter
Nov 16, 2018, 6:43 PM
let's not get too ahead, YYC doesn't even have seats, so even if they can get that it would be an accomplishment for them :haha:

Just had the misfortune of spending time in concourse C @ YYC - it does have seating but no charging stations! Concourse reminded me of something US corrections would design for Conair. I'm sure is slated for a reno tho.

SpongeG
Nov 18, 2018, 1:48 AM
I flew with westjet today, I usually fly Air Canada. The security for that entry is totally different. The bins are different and they pop up and you put your stuff in them and they go through and then they either go to you or it seemed most of them went to the other side where an agent than asks to go through your bags at a station to the side. It wasn't that busy and there was no lineup and the procedure seemed quicker than the grab your own bin or bins and schlep it along etc.

Will they be changing the security to this style for the AC security as well?

Orcair
Nov 18, 2018, 3:34 AM
I flew with westjet today, I usually fly Air Canada. The security for that entry is totally different. The bins are different and they pop up and you put your stuff in them and they go through and then they either go to you or it seemed most of them went to the other side where an agent than asks to go through your bags at a station to the side. It wasn't that busy and there was no lineup and the procedure seemed quicker than the grab your own bin or bins and schlep it along etc.

Will they be changing the security to this style for the AC security as well?

They've been rolling it out across the country... I assume Concourse C should be getting it soon-ish?

https://www.catsa-acsta.gc.ca/en/catsa-plus

SpongeG
Nov 18, 2018, 6:22 AM
oh ok

connect2source
Nov 18, 2018, 3:28 PM
I flew with westjet today, I usually fly Air Canada. The security for that entry is totally different. The bins are different and they pop up and you put your stuff in them and they go through and then they either go to you or it seemed most of them went to the other side where an agent than asks to go through your bags at a station to the side. It wasn't that busy and there was no lineup and the procedure seemed quicker than the grab your own bin or bins and schlep it along etc.

Will they be changing the security to this style for the AC security as well?

It's been changed for international departures too, main entry point for D and E gates. Although I'm Nexus, the whole process seemed faster despite some confusion from users.

casper
Nov 18, 2018, 10:00 PM
oh ok

I went through Pearson Terminal 1 earlier in the week and they look to have the security lanes under construction. Looks to be making it way in around the country.

Signs up in Pearson saying "Security re-imagined coming" odd working for something that has been in YVR and other airports for a number of years.

SpongeG
Nov 19, 2018, 7:09 AM
It's been changed for international departures too, main entry point for D and E gates. Although I'm Nexus, the whole process seemed faster despite some confusion from users.

When I was there it was 8 am or so there was a 0 minute wait, I walked straight to the bin area with no one in front of me and only 1 other person who was a few minutes behind me.

One of the security guys had a bin and kept calling out who's stuff is this? and no one was answering, there was less than 12 people at security at that time. Finally some guy standing next to me was like oh that's mine. :rolleyes:

They need to get people to pay attention to what the heck they are doing and watch their bins as most of the people were just standing there not knowing what to do or not even looking at the bins. Meanwhile bins were stacking up basically as security tried to figure out whos bin was whos. I can see it causing problems if its busy. The bins that didn't need to be searched just sat there, there were two women who didn't grab their stuff until a security person said something. I can see non-frequent flyers holding things up as this process is less intuitive to the other way.

twoNeurons
Nov 22, 2018, 5:53 PM
Fares are quite expensive other then the promo ones. Yes it was a bummer that Southwest decided to sell their 5 slots to Alaska. I guess they figured it wasn't worth it to staff a new station for just 5 flights with no real possibility of expansion since the airport is already capped out. Alaska benefits going from their initial 13 to 18 daily flights.

PAE is more convenient for anyone in North Seattle, and is only a couple miles further than SEA from Amazon and Microsoft HQ. It'll be interesting to see how this airport does and what kind of clients it attracts. It will undoubtedly be more convenient due to its size, but will it be more suited as a lower-cost LCC airport, just a SEATAC alternative, or a Business travellers airport.

I imagine morning outbound flights will be a little more convenient for employees at MS and AMZN as they'd be going against traffic.

twoNeurons
Nov 22, 2018, 7:07 PM
Some people must just wake up and think how can I be miserable today.

Comparing YVR and SEA YTD to 30 SEP 2018:

SEA Intl up 7.0% up 276,573 to 4.21 million
YVR Intl up 9.4% up 899,170 to 10.45 million

Taking out "transborder" (USA for YVR and Canada only for SEA)
SEA is still at only 3.0M
YVR is at 5.6M

If you want to compare long-haul international, technically for SEA we should remove Mexico as well as that is also transborder with their own unique relationship. Even taking out transborder YVR is more than double SEA for intl passengers and the gap is actually widening this year. That’s right it’s WIDENING by a huge number.

So in 2018 so far YVR international is still growing way faster than SEA in both % terms and aggregate pax numbers. And Sept 2018 YVR was stronger in growth % and pax numbers.

SEA, although it has just huge numbers, is still very much a domestic airport. 89% of all pax are domestic compared to less than 50% for YVR.

Yes SEA is getting some new routes too...

Daily JAL ato NRT
Daily DL to KIX
4 x weekly CX to HKG
4 x weekly SQ to SIN

But SEA also recently lost DL to HKG and flights to CGN and MUC.

Look what YVR has gained in the past few years... YVR is not just sitting around watching the grass grow but SEA is definitely a serious competitor... always has been. Nothing new.

I’m sure SEA will get plenty of new routes in the future just like YVR will... but as you can see... intl at YVR is still more than double that of SEA and the gap is widening this year. SEA intl may grow faster than YVR next year but realistically how long would it take SEA to catch up to YVR’s numbers? Think about it.

So hope this helps...

Take some deep breaths... relax and try and have a good night’s sleep tonight.

That's interesting DL getting KIX. KIX is very much turning into a LCC hub for Asia. I think there's untapped opportunity there, for a major airline to strike a deal with jetstar or peach for some integration and expand their reach.

If AC didn't have YVR-KIX it'd be great to have seen WestJet make an alliance with Peach or Jetstar, much like they have an alliance with EasyJet.

Does anyone know how to tell WHICH 5 days the KIX-YVR flight will fly next winter?

nname
Nov 22, 2018, 8:00 PM
Does anyone know how to tell WHICH 5 days the KIX-YVR flight will fly next winter?

Still summer seasonal. Last flight on the end of October.

twoNeurons
Nov 22, 2018, 8:26 PM
Still summer seasonal. Last flight on the end of October.

I'm seeing direct flights on Aeroplan as late as November 10th. I was wondering which days they're flying on. I'm hoping for a return on Nov 11th, but availability hasn't opened up yet and I'm wondering if it's because it's not scheduled Mondays or if they haven't released seats.

Johnny Aussie
Nov 25, 2018, 11:24 PM
I'm seeing direct flights on Aeroplan as late as November 10th. I was wondering which days they're flying on. I'm hoping for a return on Nov 11th, but availability hasn't opened up yet and I'm wondering if it's because it's not scheduled Mondays or if they haven't released seats.

Are you sure about that?

I’m not seeing anything in their timetables, availability or on Aeroplan.

Pretty sure KIX will remain seasonal, like FRA, CDG, ZRH and DUB. YYC-NRT also not showing after late October 2019 as well... probably moved to seasonal.

thenoflyzone
Nov 26, 2018, 2:09 AM
Always found it strange that AC only flies to 1 European market out of YVR year round. Something very underwhelming about that.

s211
Nov 26, 2018, 5:18 PM
Hi everyone. A quick question: does YVR only have non-stop flights to/from Atlanta during the summer season? Is that expected to change (for the better) in the next while?

casper
Nov 26, 2018, 8:06 PM
Hi everyone. A quick question: does YVR only have non-stop flights to/from Atlanta during the summer season? Is that expected to change (for the better) in the next while?

I have been on that flight once or twice. Arrives and returns after US customs closes, so it departs from the international gates. Good flight. At least there is a skyteam lounge in that part of the airport.

Given WestJet and Delta are becoming stronger partners going forward I would expect over time for service into Atlanta. Perhaps it might switch to being a WestJet aircraft in the future.

s211
Nov 26, 2018, 10:08 PM
I have been on that flight once or twice. Arrives and returns after US customs closes, so it departs from the international gates. Good flight. At least there is a skyteam lounge in that part of the airport.

Given WestJet and Delta are becoming stronger partners going forward I would expect over time for service into Atlanta. Perhaps it might switch to being a WestJet aircraft in the future.

Dang. I don't / won't fly Westjet. Just personal choice. I don't enjoy their planes or inflight experience.

moosejaw
Nov 26, 2018, 10:25 PM
Hi everyone. A quick question: does YVR only have non-stop flights to/from Atlanta during the summer season?

Thanks good to know i have a direct source to transport my Ketchup Chips and Crush Cream Soda......:cheers:

LeftCoaster
Nov 27, 2018, 12:09 AM
I'd imagine once Delta gets more A220s they will take this route year round daily with A220 in the winter and 739 in the summer.

Given the WestJet/Delta JV I wouldn't be surprised to see this route grow a fair amount over the next few years.

s211
Nov 27, 2018, 12:40 AM
I'd imagine once Delta gets more A220s they will take this route year round daily with A220 in the winter and 739 in the summer.

Given the WestJet/Delta JV I wouldn't be surprised to see this route grow a fair amount over the next few years.

While I won't fly Westjet, I wonder if Westjet will try to funnel Vancouver fliers through Calgary to support the new Calgary-Atlanta run of theirs. Talk about non-starter.

LeftCoaster
Nov 27, 2018, 1:04 AM
Of course they will. WestJet's entire model is now to funnel YVR fliers through YYC wherever possible.

I doubt it will work well though, with the bevy of one stop options from YVR through the US at far more attractive times. Plus you can pre-clear in YVR rather than YYC which I think would necessitate another trip through security. No thanks.

They will have to offer cut rate fares to attract YVR fliers to that flight which would likely send their yields to the tank. If they can't fill it with Alberta+Sask fliers I doubt the flight survives.

Quite frankly with oil prices in the gutter for the forseeable future their entire YYC hub concept is in trouble IMO.

nname
Nov 27, 2018, 1:08 AM
Of course they will. WestJet's entire model is now to funnel YVR fliers through YYC wherever possible.

I doubt it will work well though, with the bevy of one stop options from YVR through the US at far more attractive times. Plus you can pre-clear in YVR rather than YYC which I think would necessitate another trip through security. No thanks.

They will have to offer cut rate fares to attract YVR fliers to that flight which would likely send their yields to the tank. If they can't fill it with Alberta+Sask fliers I doubt the flight survives.

Well, right now they're offering $154 one-way YVR-YYC-ATL, is that fare low enough? :D

Direct flight from DL is more than double of that amount.

And the breakdown of the fare is:
$69.99 Base fare from WestJet
$37.20 Tax and Fee (Canadian side)
$46.30 Tax and Fee (US side)

Compared to the base fare of YVR-YYC of the same flight on the same day, it's $126.00 base fare + $34.78 tax and fee.

WestJet is pretty much giving out the flight to ATL for free if you connect through YYC :D

Johnny Aussie
Nov 27, 2018, 2:03 AM
Well, right now they're offering $154 one-way YVR-YYC-ATL, is that fare low enough? :D

Direct flight from DL is more than double of that amount.

And the breakdown of the fare is:
$69.99 Base fare from WestJet
$37.20 Tax and Fee (Canadian side)
$46.30 Tax and Fee (US side)

Compared to the base fare of YVR-YYC of the same flight on the same day, it's $126.00 base fare + $34.78 tax and fee.

WestJet is pretty much giving out the flight to ATL for free if you connect through YYC :D

And as Leftcoaster pointed out... this will trash the yields on that flight if they keep that up.... a plane full with low fares is recipe for disaster.

nname
Nov 27, 2018, 8:30 AM
YVR Domestic + Transborder changes for AC, which was just loaded:

AC200 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320, 12345 -> x6
AC202 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320, daily -> x7
AC204 YVR-YYC 319 -> 7M8
AC206 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320, daily -> x6
AC208 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320
AC210 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320
AC212 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320
AC214 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320, daily -> 12345
AC216 YVR-YYC *cancelled*
AC220 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320
AC224 YVR-YYC 319 -> 320, daily -> x6
AC228 YVR-YYC 320 -> 319
AC230 YVR-YYC 319 -> 7M8
AC232 YVR-YEG 319 -> 320
AC240 YVR-YEG 319 -> 320
AC244 YVR-YEG daily -> x6
AC252 YVR-YEG 321 -> 319
AC292 YVR-YWG 319 -> 320

AC312 YVR-YUL 320 -> 7M8
AC338 YVR-YOW 321 -> 320
AC342 YVR-YOW 319 -> 320
AC346 YVR-YOW daily 320 *new*
AC392 YVR-YUL 320 -> 7M8

AC536 YVR-OGG 5x weekly -> daily 7M8
AC550 YVR-LAX 319 -> 7M8
AC552 YVR-LAX 320 -> 319
AC554 YVR-LAX 320 -> 319
AC556 YVR-LAX 320 -> 319
AC558 YVR-LAX 320 -> 7M8
AC560 YVR-SFO 320 -> 7M8
AC562 YVR-ANC daily 319 *new*
AC566 YVR-SFO 320 -> 7M8
AC568 YVR-SFO 320 -> 7M8
AC572 YVR-LAX 320 -> 7M8

In short, the 319 need to move east to cover the work done by E90, so many of YVR's 319 routes got up-gauged to 320.

fredinno
Nov 27, 2018, 8:42 AM
Of course they will. WestJet's entire model is now to funnel YVR fliers through YYC wherever possible.

I doubt it will work well though, with the bevy of one stop options from YVR through the US at far more attractive times. Plus you can pre-clear in YVR rather than YYC which I think would necessitate another trip through security. No thanks.

They will have to offer cut rate fares to attract YVR fliers to that flight which would likely send their yields to the tank. If they can't fill it with Alberta+Sask fliers I doubt the flight survives.

Quite frankly with oil prices in the gutter for the forseeable future their entire YYC hub concept is in trouble IMO.
YYC Hub?

Johnny Aussie
Nov 27, 2018, 9:40 AM
YVR Domestic + Transborder changes for AC, which was just loaded:

Excellent work again. Thanks.

So based on the schedules now (subject to change).... AC's YVR Transborder frequencies will climb to 43 in summer 2019 up from 39 last summer.

SFO increases to 5 daily
ANC increases to 2 daily
SEA increases to 6 daily
OGG increases to Daily from 2 weekly

Also on the domestic side YOW is increasing to 4 daily and as mentioned YZF is continuing year round.

Good to see AC further strengthening their YVR hub.

s211
Nov 27, 2018, 4:14 PM
Of course they will. WestJet's entire model is now to funnel YVR fliers through YYC wherever possible.

I doubt it will work well though, with the bevy of one stop options from YVR through the US at far more attractive times. Plus you can pre-clear in YVR rather than YYC which I think would necessitate another trip through security. No thanks.

No kidding. When YYC'ers are complaining about how bad the security and immigration clearances are in the renovated YYC airport, you know it has to suck.

Cage
Nov 27, 2018, 4:24 PM
Of course they will. WestJet's entire model is now to funnel YVR fliers through YYC wherever possible.

I doubt it will work well though, with the bevy of one stop options from YVR through the US at far more attractive times. Plus you can pre-clear in YVR rather than YYC which I think would necessitate another trip through security. No thanks.

They will have to offer cut rate fares to attract YVR fliers to that flight which would likely send their yields to the tank. If they can't fill it with Alberta+Sask fliers I doubt the flight survives.

Quite frankly with oil prices in the gutter for the forseeable future their entire YYC hub concept is in trouble IMO.

WS hubbing in YYC is going to work out, because they have been doing it since 1996.

Also, AC will let YYC go for everything except YVR/YEG/YYZ/YOW/YUL/LHR/FRA. This strategy is best described as "We will let the competition have the fourth largest market and take the top 3 largest markets".

nname
Nov 27, 2018, 5:32 PM
Excellent work again. Thanks.

So based on the schedules now (subject to change).... AC's YVR Transborder frequencies will climb to 43 in summer 2019 up from 39 last summer.

SFO increases to 5 daily
ANC increases to 2 daily
SEA increases to 6 daily
OGG increases to Daily from 2 weekly

Also on the domestic side YOW is increasing to 4 daily and as mentioned YZF is continuing year round.

Good to see AC further strengthening their YVR hub.

You forgot HNL increased from 5x weekly to daily (was sharing a Rouge 767 with OGG)

AC was half-way updating the Express when I was scanning through it last night.. no wonder I can't find some of the changes you mentioned :D

AC8080 YVR-SEA daily DH4 *new*
AC8092 YVR-SEA DH4 -> CR9
AC8106 YVR-DEN daily -> x6
AC8238 YVR-YXT x6 DH4 *new*
AC8410 YVR-YLW x6 -> daily
AC8416 YVR-YLW daily -> x6
AC8418 YVR-YLW x6 -> daily
AC8420 YVR-YLW *cancelled*
AC8574 YVR-YXE daily -> x6
AC8844 YVR-SFO daily CR9 *new*
AC8890 YVR-YXY daily -> x6

Interestingly, seems like so far AC is going for improved frequency (~6 dailies in total) at YVR rather than adding new routes. Looking though all the changes so far, YUL doesn't seems to have any substantial frequency increase (few weekly additions for long-hual Rouge, plus some sub-daily increase in YYJ and MIA) but added a couple of new destinations. YYC have some loss mainly due to the cancellation of YQF.. otherwise it stays pretty even. AC haven't really start changing YYZ schedule yet.

Gordon
Nov 27, 2018, 7:24 PM
The 2nd ANC flight soesn't shop on ACs website.

nname
Nov 27, 2018, 8:00 PM
The 2nd ANC flight soesn't shop on ACs website.

Try timetable. Effective June 1 to Sept 2.

It will take a few days to show up in booking.

YYCguys
Nov 27, 2018, 8:54 PM
That’s pretty cool to see AC doing ANC! Saves time by not having to backtrack to SEA on AS!

LeftCoaster
Nov 27, 2018, 10:02 PM
WS hubbing in YYC is going to work out, because they have been doing it since 1996.

Also, AC will let YYC go for everything except YVR/YEG/YYZ/YOW/YUL/LHR/FRA. This strategy is best described as "We will let the competition have the fourth largest market and take the top 3 largest markets".

Well WestJet's hub they are building at YYC is far different than the hub they have run since 96.

My concern is that they are building an international gateway, positioning YYC as a hub within North America and outwards to Europe and Asia, without the O&D to do so. Calgary is a very small market to have a hub, but it's survived based on its very profitable thriving business community. Today that business community is suffering incredibly and there is no end in sight.

How do they drive loads and yield in a small city with limited tourism and an industry undergoing the belt tightening of a generation?

They are going to rely very heavily on connections to fill the international long hauls. This can work, but they are going to have to take a hit since most major centres in Western North America are already hubs of their own, so they will need to appeal based on cost to attract fliers. Unfortunately they have all these expensive new planes, an expensive new terminal, lie flat J class to fill and a new pilots/FA union to account for.

I personally think their YYC hub is a very very large gamble with a lot of scenarios resulting in a big impact to corporate profitability. I could very well be wrong but it seems to me like a they should have pushed their intl' expansion to YYZ with much lower risk, albiet lower upside potential as well.

s211
Nov 27, 2018, 10:22 PM
My concern is that they are building an international gateway, positioning YYC as a hub within North America and outwards to Europe and Asia, without the O&D to do so. Calgary is a very small market to have a hub, but it's survived based on its very profitable thriving business community. Today that business community is suffering incredibly and there is no end in sight.

How do they drive loads and yield in a small city with limited tourism and an industry undergoing the belt tightening of a generation?

I'd go as far to say that there's also some semi-clear Calgary boosterism going on, the way that Westjet has consistently built up its home base.

LeftCoaster
Nov 27, 2018, 10:25 PM
Well that's fine, gotta play in the sandbox you know, but when you are making major decisions based on emotion or reluctance to leave the comfortable then you're going to get yourself into trouble.

nname
Nov 27, 2018, 10:32 PM
That’s pretty cool to see AC doing ANC! Saves time by not having to backtrack to SEA on AS!

AC had always been offering summer seasonal flights to ANC. Just that next summer they doubled the service and added a new morning departure from YVR and noon departure from ANC.

Now, I wonder if they'll make it year-round like what they did when they added the second daily to YZF, or still keep it seasonal. Or maybe there's just that much cruise ship traffic to warrant double-daily for summon months only :D


I personally think their YYC hub is a very very large gamble with a lot of scenarios resulting in a big impact to corporate profitability. I could very well be wrong but it seems to me like a they should have pushed their intl' expansion to YYZ with much lower risk, albiet lower upside potential as well.

They did, on a lesser degree though.

Seems like the majority of the new Trans-Atlantic service will be from YYC, but there's also small expansion out of YYZ, and consolidating the narrow-body ops at YHZ.

Now it remain to be seen if their Trans-Pacific operation will be mainly based from YYC, or split YYC/YVR... or they are not going touch this market at all?

twoNeurons
Nov 27, 2018, 11:31 PM
Are you sure about that?

I’m not seeing anything in their timetables, availability or on Aeroplan.

Pretty sure KIX will remain seasonal, like FRA, CDG, ZRH and DUB. YYC-NRT also not showing after late October 2019 as well... probably moved to seasonal.

Could be... but I did book a return flight returning Nov 12, 2019 and it still shows as seats available. Latest I can see flights now is November 15th, 2019.

:shrug:

nname
Nov 27, 2018, 11:48 PM
Could be... but I did book a return flight returning Nov 12, 2019 and it still shows as seats available. Latest I can see flights now is November 15th, 2019.

:shrug:

AC originally did have KIX and FRA service extended into November with reduced service, before the entire winter schedule being replaced by a carbon copy of W18, and both routes now stop right at S19/W19 schedule change date (without the gradual reduction of flights near the end of seasonal service)

Maybe Aeroplan site haven't synced with the latest schedule change? Or Aeroplan got access to AC's internal schedule before it even published on their website? Who knows... But the entire winter schedule is still pretty messy right now, as I'm still seeing flights to PEK, ICN, or NRT that's one or two weekly... I'll wait till the end of the year to come to any conclusion.

trofirhen
Nov 28, 2018, 2:11 AM
KIX and SIN are already coveted year-round routes from YVR, (especially SIN). If YVR were to get three year-round overseas routes over and above these, what would you choose?

Secondly, if YVR were to get three additional year-round transborder routes, what would they be?

nname
Nov 28, 2018, 4:33 AM
KIX and SIN are already coveted year-round routes from YVR, (especially SIN). If YVR were to get three year-round overseas routes over and above these, what would you choose?

Secondly, if YVR were to get three additional year-round transborder routes, what would they be?

I had something else, then I noticed "year-round"... hmmm..

Transborder: KOA, BOS, ANC
Oversea: DUB, MUC, ZRH maybe..?

Or you mean new destinations? :D

trofirhen
Nov 28, 2018, 5:00 AM
I had something else, then I noticed "year-round"... hmmm..

Transborder: KOA, BOS, ANC
Oversea: DUB, MUC, ZRH maybe..?

Or you mean new destinations? :D

Destinations. Year-round routes to new destinations.

casper
Nov 28, 2018, 2:28 PM
Well WestJet's hub they are building at YYC is far different than the hub they have run since 96.

My concern is that they are building an international gateway, positioning YYC as a hub within North America and outwards to Europe and Asia, without the O&D to do so. Calgary is a very small market to have a hub, but it's survived based on its very profitable thriving business community. Today that business community is suffering incredibly and there is no end in sight.

How do they drive loads and yield in a small city with limited tourism and an industry undergoing the belt tightening of a generation?

They are going to rely very heavily on connections to fill the international long hauls. This can work, but they are going to have to take a hit since most major centres in Western North America are already hubs of their own, so they will need to appeal based on cost to attract fliers. Unfortunately they have all these expensive new planes, an expensive new terminal, lie flat J class to fill and a new pilots/FA union to account for.

I personally think their YYC hub is a very very large gamble with a lot of scenarios resulting in a big impact to corporate profitability. I could very well be wrong but it seems to me like a they should have pushed their intl' expansion to YYZ with much lower risk, albiet lower upside potential as well.

I think the issue is "hub" means different things to different people.

WS is basically duplicating what AC has in Calgary. A flight to London and a second flight to its European partners main hub. WS is not going much more beyond that. Perhaps displace AirTransat with the odd European tourist destination during the summer months. We are not talking about a major "hub".

They will do fine. That said AC has the better routes. Heathrow is much more connected airport than Gatwick especially to oil centers in the middle east. Frankfurt is also a much nicer airport to make connections than Paris.

I think longer term, Vancouver is becoming expensive for many. That is driving population growth in other parts of BC. If you are in Victoria or Kelowna and you need to fly to Europe or east of Calgary there is no difference if you make your connection in YVR or YYC.

Cage
Nov 28, 2018, 5:05 PM
My concern is that they are building an international gateway, positioning YYC as a hub within North America and outwards to Europe and Asia, without the O&D to do so. Calgary is a very small market to have a hub, but it's survived based on its very profitable thriving business community. Today that business community is suffering incredibly and there is no end in sight.

How do they drive loads and yield in a small city with limited tourism and an industry undergoing the belt tightening of a generation?

They are going to rely very heavily on connections to fill the international long hauls. This can work, but they are going to have to take a hit since most major centres in Western North America are already hubs of their own, so they will need to appeal based on cost to attract fliers. Unfortunately they have all these expensive new planes, an expensive new terminal, lie flat J class to fill and a new pilots/FA union to account for.

A three airplane YYC-Asia hub is NRT/HKG/PEK all at 3-4 times per week. Complement with the three airplane LGWCDG/DUB TransAt run and you have a YYC based International Hub with 4 airplanes left over for YYZ.

I suspect the TransPac YYC portion of the hub will all originate in YYZ. There is a lot of fuel savings in doing YYZ-YYC-Asia over YYZ-Asia n/s. WS doesn't have a large premium cabin configuration to begin with, so there is little upside in going after the n/s market. In this regard tWS will be competing with the Asian airlines rather than AC.

LeftCoaster
Nov 28, 2018, 7:36 PM
You're probably right, you know a lot more about this stuff than I do, I just remain skeptical about the benefits of running a hub with low O&D. Doesn't seem sustainable long term. Without strong O&D demand WS will be left fighting for the low fare scraps with the Chinese carriers who have much more ability to price fares low and endure losses on routes.

CloudInspector
Nov 28, 2018, 10:32 PM
You're probably right, you know a lot more about this stuff than I do, I just remain skeptical about the benefits of running a hub with low O&D. Doesn't seem sustainable long term. Without strong O&D demand WS will be left fighting for the low fare scraps with the Chinese carriers who have much more ability to price fares low and endure losses on routes.

I agree with LeftCoaster, I don’t think YYC has enough O&D to warrant significant year round service to Asia. I imagine NRT and SEL would be likely on a seasonal basis, but I’m still betting on YVR and YYZ being the big widebody hubs for WestJet.

I guess we’ll find out in the next few months...?

LeftCoaster
Nov 29, 2018, 12:37 AM
I highly doubt YVR will be a widebody hub in any form for WS, they've drawn down their feeder flights at YVR and greatly expanded YYC enough to indicate they are decreasing their Vancouver presence, not increasing it to build an intl hub.

For now they seem to have ceeded YVR to AC, I just think that was a mistake since AC now has a huge advantage over WS in western Canada long haul.

nname
Nov 29, 2018, 1:15 AM
I highly doubt YVR will be a widebody hub in any form for WS, they've drawn down their feeder flights at YVR and greatly expanded YYC enough to indicate they are decreasing their Vancouver presence, not increasing it to build an intl hub.

For now they seem to have ceeded YVR to AC, I just think that was a mistake since AC now has a huge advantage over WS in western Canada long haul.

But WS knows that AC don't have any more new widebody for expansion, and don't expect them to cut service from YYZ/YUL for expansion for the west.... although they sort of did next summer to reallocate capacity from BOM to YVR-DEL..

Even if AC exercise the 787 options (which is actually still on the books), it will take a few more years until the planes arrives.

CloudInspector
Nov 29, 2018, 1:19 AM
I highly doubt YVR will be a widebody hub in any form for WS, they've drawn down their feeder flights at YVR and greatly expanded YYC enough to indicate they are decreasing their Vancouver presence, not increasing it to build an intl hub.

For now they seem to have ceeded YVR to AC, I just think that was a mistake since AC now has a huge advantage over WS in western Canada long haul.

The same can be said about them reducing their feed into YYZ, but I’m sure that will be the eastern 787 base.

I think they learned a valuable lesson from the 767 launch and they’re trying not to repeat that, hence the first routes. YYC and YVR are not interchangeable when it comes to market sizes.

LeftCoaster
Nov 29, 2018, 1:26 AM
The 767 launch I'm sure factored into this, but still seems odd they loaded up YYC with the dreamliners and not YYZ. Toronto is just so much safer of a market for them to launch from.

But WS knows that AC don't have any more new widebody for expansion, and don't expect them to cut service from YYZ/YUL for expansion for the west.... although they sort of did next summer to reallocate capacity from BOM to YVR-DEL..

Even if AC exercise the 787 options (which is actually still on the books), it will take a few more years until the planes arrives.

Well they can always keep loading up on used A330s with no lead time which seems to be working very well for them. This can then free up 787s and 777s for YVR since Vancouver is a crew base for those types. I would not be surprised to see them do this if the economies in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal keep booming away.

nname
Nov 29, 2018, 1:33 AM
The 767 launch I'm sure factored into this, but still seems odd they loaded up YYC with the dreamliners and not YYZ. Toronto is just so much safer of a market for them to launch from.

The 767 from YYC went to YYZ though. But then their 787 have much better premium products...


Well they can always keep loading up on used A330s with no lead time which seems to be working very well for them. This can then free up 787s and 777s for YVR since Vancouver is a crew base for those types. I would not be surprised to see them do this if the economies in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal keep booming away.

If they could find good ones.... or maybe they can snatch some used 788 too.. there's already a couple up for sale :D

It'll be interesting to see what they'll do though. As it stands, they do not have enough plane to run S20 service at S19 level unless they cut service and/or reduce the slack in Rouge and throw a lot of routes to Rouge...

Cage
Nov 29, 2018, 2:03 AM
Well they can always keep loading up on used A330s with no lead time which seems to be working very well for them. This can then free up 787s and 777s for YVR since Vancouver is a crew base for those types. I would not be surprised to see them do this if the economies in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal keep booming away.

Bingo, the used 333 market is opening up with good pricing.

Keep in mind that with the exception of YVR, every 787 TransAt route for AC has better economics if flown by the 333. The reverse is true for the TransPac where the 333 really shines. The best widebody fleet combination is 333 on the TransAt and 787 on the TransPac.

VancouverOfTheFuture
Nov 29, 2018, 3:32 AM
i noticed the outlet mall expansion is coming along pretty quickly. part of it looks taller then the other parts.

thenoflyzone
Nov 29, 2018, 1:05 PM
You forgot HNL increased from 5x weekly to daily (was sharing a Rouge 767 with OGG)

AC was half-way updating the Express when I was scanning through it last night.. no wonder I can't find some of the changes you mentioned :D

AC8080 YVR-SEA daily DH4 *new*
AC8092 YVR-SEA DH4 -> CR9
AC8106 YVR-DEN daily -> x6
AC8238 YVR-YXT x6 DH4 *new*
AC8410 YVR-YLW x6 -> daily
AC8416 YVR-YLW daily -> x6
AC8418 YVR-YLW x6 -> daily
AC8420 YVR-YLW *cancelled*
AC8574 YVR-YXE daily -> x6
AC8844 YVR-SFO daily CR9 *new*
AC8890 YVR-YXY daily -> x6

Interestingly, seems like so far AC is going for improved frequency (~6 dailies in total) at YVR rather than adding new routes. Looking though all the changes so far, YUL doesn't seems to have any substantial frequency increase (few weekly additions for long-hual Rouge, plus some sub-daily increase in YYJ and MIA) but added a couple of new destinations.

6x dailies on DH4, CRJ or narrowbodies or new destinations......hmmm

I'll take the new destinations...:cheers: A link to RDU for Montreal is far more important than additional flights to YYC/YEG.

Besides, those A319s moving east to replace the E190s are a nice increase in seats as well.

s211
Nov 29, 2018, 4:06 PM
A link to RDU for Montreal is far more important than additional flights to YYC/YEG.

Said no-one from the rest of Canada, ever. :rolleyes:

Johnny Aussie
Nov 29, 2018, 8:56 PM
I highly doubt YVR will be a widebody hub in any form for WS, they've drawn down their feeder flights at YVR and greatly expanded YYC enough to indicate they are decreasing their Vancouver presence, not increasing it to build an intl hub.

For now they seem to have ceeded YVR to AC, I just think that was a mistake since AC now has a huge advantage over WS in western Canada long haul.

I don’t think “ceding” YVR to AC is a mistake though as they didn’t really have a choice. More of a risky gamble to be honest.

I don’t think YVR and YYC are big enough markets to have two large hubs.

Both airlines are strategising by building up one over the other.

In recent years AC has not grown YYC at all... even sun flying has been stagnant (a bit of transborder fluff from YYC has been added). But we all have seen what AC has done at YVR. AC’s strategy is pretty clear.

WS is clearly boosting up YYC as their primary hub.

Interestingly though look at the patterns over the past few years. WS has actually increased flying at YVR during the same time that AC has constantly added more and more at YVR each year. Whereas AC at YYC has scaled back.
Only in the last two seasonal schedule updates has WS wound back YVR. But looking at it in detail the “wind-back” at YVR of WS is actually a lot less than the perception. Actually quite minuscule. And AC has just increased transborder and international flying next summer as highlighted in my previous post. Increased flying to SEA, SFO, ANC, HNL, OGG, ZRH, DEL, MEL and service level increases to DUB and KIX. A decent indication the transborder and international networks are doing well. Seeing increased flying to YOW, YXT and YZF are also good to see.

WS’s gamble at YYC may be occurring in a period of bad timing though. YYC still very dependent on the oil industry thriving and recent events have certainly slowed the recovery that was happening and in fact may have stalled.
And international flying? YYC is definitely well positioned for Europe but is on the wrong side of YVR to be a really big contender to build up a substantial Asian network. YVR still a much larger market to Europe than YYC. But look at the Asian markets and YVR is just too huge to ignore. In summary, YYC has a much better chance of making Europe work over Asia. Recent capacity cuts to Asia only tells part of the story.

thenoflyzone
Nov 29, 2018, 9:34 PM
Said no-one from the rest of Canada, ever. :rolleyes:

Actually, 15,700 people that regularly fly from YVR to RDU and back every year would disagree with you....

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2310025601

SpongeG
Nov 29, 2018, 9:37 PM
i think he meant YVR - RDU wherever the f that is is just as important as Montreal to RDU, the montreal poster seemed to be implying RDU only needs a montreal connection and that other cities don't need them, thats how it reads to me anyway

s211
Nov 29, 2018, 11:26 PM
i think he meant YVR - RDU wherever the f that is is just as important as Montreal to RDU, the montreal poster seemed to be implying RDU only needs a montreal connection and that other cities don't need them, thats how it reads to me anyway

:cheers:

Johnny Aussie
Nov 29, 2018, 11:58 PM
Over in the YYC thread, Acey has confirmed that Hainan is pulling out of YYC. The date of pullout has not been confirmed yet.
This will free up three weekly frequencies. Will Hainan use those three weekly frequencies to: boost YVR-TSN, launch something new from YVR, bolster something from YYZ, something else?

This move reaffirms the last sentence of my last post.