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trofirhen
Sep 4, 2014, 9:52 PM
Wow that is an annoying website. Wish they had more pictures on there.

The Jetset project, if its been confirmed looks to be on the same side as the new outlet mall from the pictures. Looks interesting.
hmm, wonder why they call it a YVR "Post-Disaster" Facility.
But hey yeah, it looks interesting, and seems as if it will lend more "presence" not only just at
its own location, but to the whole airport. Airside, it seems near (even if just behind) the main entranceway and
parking lot, so maybe we'll hear more of that wonderful high-pitch screaming of jets warming up.
(I realize it's noise pollution, but it adds to that "busy airport" feeling)

spm2013
Sep 4, 2014, 10:06 PM
Probably removes or provides backup for some infrastructure from the main building in case of an earthquake etc.

trofirhen
Sep 4, 2014, 10:12 PM
Probably removes or provides backup for some infrastructure from the main building in case of an earthquake etc.
Interesting how we all think so differently. For a minute there, I thought it was inferring that
A-B was a "disaster" in its under-use and mediocre design, (esp pier B!!), and that this was sort of a
"rebirth of a badly-designed airport wing" or such. Haha.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 5, 2014, 10:59 PM
YUL has released its July figures.

YTD YVR has exceeded YUL for the first time in total International Passengers (including transborder of course) by ~ 45,500. Not sure if that will continue but that is pretty impressive for tiny little Vancouver. One can argue two separate sub-groups of numbers but at the end of the day all these passengers are flying international. And YUL has a MUCH more significant sun destination network!

Denscity
Sep 6, 2014, 1:19 AM
YUL has released its July figures.

YTD YVR has exceeded YUL for the first time in total International Passengers (including transborder of course) by ~ 45,500. Not sure if that will continue but that is pretty impressive for tiny little Vancouver. One can argue two separate sub-groups of numbers but at the end of the day all these passengers are flying international. And YUL has a MUCH more significant sun destination network!

:cheers::cheers::cheers::cheers::cheers: That's all I can say. So awesome!!!

Klazu
Sep 6, 2014, 3:57 AM
Regarding Virgin Atlantic... What's the idea with all the different Virgin airlines? Are they completely separate entities or are they part of the same airline group? Do they code share and have the same frequent flyer program? Why not one global airline?

I am too lazy to read it from Wikipedia and offering you geeks a chance to show your knowledge. :rolleyes:

casper
Sep 6, 2014, 4:27 AM
Regarding Virgin Atlantic... What's the idea with all the different Virgin airlines? Are they completely separate entities or are they part of the same airline group? Do they code share and have the same frequent flyer program? Why not one global airline?

I am too lazy to read it from Wikipedia and offering you geeks a chance to show your knowledge. :rolleyes:

Virgin is a large multinational conglomerate. Virgin Records, Virgin Rail, Virgin Mobile etc. + the airlines.

Key issue is there are rules governing foreign ownership. So Virgin in the US has to be controlled by Americans, not the owner of the Virgin group is from the UK.

Same kind of thing happens in Canada. WestJet and Air Canada have two classes of shares one owned by foreign and one by Canadians. The Canadian share holders combined have to control more the 50% of the votes.

Klazu
Sep 6, 2014, 4:41 AM
Ah, I see. Is Virgin the only company doing this on a global scale? I cannot think of any other company right now, altough I don't really know who might be owning who.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 6, 2014, 7:51 AM
Hot off the heels of the transborder update...

Not only has rouge added a second daily YVR-LAS.... but now they have replaced the Thurs/Fri/Sun flights of the earlier flight with a 763. The flight on those days is also scheduled to leave a couple of hours earlier than the other days.

Hourglass
Sep 6, 2014, 8:13 AM
Ah, I see. Is Virgin the only company doing this on a global scale? I cannot think of any other company right now, altough I don't really know who might be owning who.

Quite common, actually. Both Jetstar (Qantas) and Air Asia are doing it, although the focus is on Asia Pacific markets. Singapore Airlines has a number of brands ranging from Scoot and Silk Air to their new Indian JV.

casper
Sep 6, 2014, 2:32 PM
Quite common, actually. Both Jetstar (Qantas) and Air Asia are doing it, although the focus is on Asia Pacific markets. Singapore Airlines has a number of brands ranging from Scoot and Silk Air to their new Indian JV.

They do not operate under the Lufthansa name, but Lufthansa has interests in a hand full of European Airlines.

Air France and KLM are basically the same company.

British Airways and Iberica have the same ownership.

Likely there are more.

trofirhen
Sep 7, 2014, 12:41 AM
In case Air Canada fails to deliver 787 srvice to Brisbane next years as advertised,
is Jetstar poised or interested in a new VYR - Australia route?
Air NZ has already launched three new 787 routes, two in Asia, one to Perth.
They are talking about putting YVR next up on the 787 list, thereby tentatively being able to offer daily service 7 days a week.
Would not BNE and / MEL be as high yield, with 787 metal?

whatnext
Sep 8, 2014, 6:22 PM
BIV has an article on the new Canada Post facility:
http://www.biv.com/article/20140904/BIV0102/140909968/canada-post-opens-new-richmond-plant-in-bid-to-grow-e-commerce?utm_source=BIV+Daily&utm_campaign=9c7fb2391d-Daily_Thursday_September_4_20149_4_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e7a16d5571-9c7fb2391d-209375701

thegx
Sep 8, 2014, 6:36 PM
Air Canada during the month of November 2014 is temporary reducing long-haul operations from Vancouver, with overall frequency for each route being reduced from 7 to 6 weekly (Hong Kong 5 weekly). Planned operation reductions as follow.

Vancouver – Beijing 02NOV14 – 02DEC14 Service cancelled on Wednesdays from Vancouver, Thursdays from Beijing
Vancouver – Hong Kong 02NOV14 – 01DEC14 Service cancelled on Tuesdays/Thursdays from Vancouver, Wednesdays/Fridays from Hong Kong
Vancouver – London Heathrow 05NOV14 – 08DEC14 Service cancelled on Tuesdays from Vancouver, Wednesdays from London
Vancouver – Seoul Incheon 02NOV14 – 30NOV14 Service cancelled on Mondays from Vancouver, Tuesdays from Seoul
Vancouver – Shanghai Pu Dong 11NOV14 – 30NOV14 Service cancelled on Mondays from Vancouver, Tuesdays from Shanghai

http://airlineroute.net/2014/09/08/ac-yvr-nov14/

Chicago on UA also sees a reduction in the winter.

UA ORD-YVR FEB 3>2 MAR 4>3

Johnny Aussie
Sep 8, 2014, 8:14 PM
http://airlineroute.net/2014/09/08/ac-yvr-nov14/

Chicago on UA also sees a reduction in the winter.

UA ORD-YVR FEB 3>2 MAR 4>3

All of these AC changes are the same as last winter so no change from the previous year. This is the standard, normal AC reduction for November, the slowest month of the year. AC tends to do this on certain routes in February too. LH, for example, does the same thing on most NA routes mid Jan - Feb. But actually, HKG and LHR are overall capacity increases during this period because of the the high density 77W. And pretty soon all the 763 routes will be replaced by the 788s. Perhaps the economics of that aircraft may not require any frequency adjustments for November next year. We'll see how that goes!

All the UA change posted on airliners.net does is shows the change in schedule from the prior week's listing in OAG. So be careful when comparing to a prior period, as a "reduction" may only reflect this change. This is the exact same schedule to ORD as last winter so no "reduction." 2 daily is the norm for ORD over the winter. It is increasing to 3 over the peak Xmas period and then increases to 3 again late March (was showing as 4 last week which would have been an increase from last year but now it's back to 3). Also for Jan - mid Feb both daily flights are A320s compared to 319s last winter so a capacity increase really. Whereas in the same airliner.net posting, for example, showing YEG-ORD being reduced this is an actual reduction compared to the prior year.

In fact, UA isn't showing any YVR reductions on any route at all compared to the prior winter compared to other Western Canada cities.

trofirhen
Sep 8, 2014, 10:34 PM
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
In fact, UA isn't showing any YVR reductions on any route at all compared to the prior winter compared to other Western Canada cities.

Super-informative. Thanks again, Johnny.
Do you have stats from other western Canadian cities showing reductions, in addition to to YEG reduction?
I'd be interested to see how Calgary is doing in comparison to YVR.

trofirhen
Sep 8, 2014, 11:02 PM
Dunno where I got this, found it here somewhere, took a look at it and was quit surprised by a number that totalled up. Old news but enlightening.

Philippines, last year, was starting up Manila-São Paulo via LAX.
The link, if interested:
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5773745/

The number that surprises is that via LAX it is 13474 miles.
Manila -GRU via YVR it is 13441 miles. That's 33 miles shorter via YVR
than through LAX. :rolleyes: The figures and routes below, if interested.
1 via YVR >
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-yvr-gru/
2 via LAX >
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-yvr-gru/

And nonstop, if a 788 could handle it (more probably with a stop at Cape Town):
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance/mnl-to-gru/

Johnny Aussie
Sep 8, 2014, 11:34 PM
Super-informative. Thanks again, Johnny.
Do you have stats from other western Canadian cities showing reductions, in addition to to YEG reduction?
I'd be interested to see how Calgary is doing in comparison to YVR.

Not much reduced out of YYC. Just a few downgauges to more express flying on IAH and DEN. There are no actual frequency cuts at YYC.

The other cuts in Western Canada are axing YQR/YXE-ORD, YMM-DEN, YEG-EWR and reduced capacity on YEG-IAH, YEG-ORD and YEG-DEN. YEG-SFO reduced frequencies are same as last winter.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 8, 2014, 11:38 PM
Dunno where I got this, found it here somewhere, took a look at it and was quit surprised by a number that totalled up. Old news but enlightening.

Philippines, last year, was starting up Manila-São Paulo via LAX.
The link, if interested:
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5773745/

The number that surprises is that via LAX it is 13474 miles.
Manila -GRU via YVR it is 13441 miles. That's 33 miles shorter via YVR
than through LAX. :rolleyes: The figures and routes below, if interested.
1 via YVR >
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-yvr-gru/
2 via LAX >
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-yvr-gru/

And nonstop, if a 788 could handle it (more probably with a stop at Cape Town):
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance/mnl-to-gru/

Looking at the O&D figures in the Tourism Alberta report introduced a couple of weeks ago I was pleasantly surprised at how big the YVR-Brazil market is. Also, would love to see Peru, Argentina and Chile as well. There may be some opportunities with Asian carriers using YVR.

With a bit of sleuthing, I am aware Korean is looking at (possibly) increasing frequencies to YVR and they are also looking at a direct flight to Lima.... hmmmmmmmmm.

trofirhen
Sep 9, 2014, 12:38 AM
Looking at the O&D figures in the Tourism Alberta report introduced a couple of weeks ago I was pleasantly surprised at how big the YVR-Brazil market is. Also, would love to see Peru, Argentina and Chile as well. There may be some opportunities with Asian carriers using YVR.

With a bit of sleuthing, I am aware Korean is looking at (possibly) increasing frequencies to YVR and they are also looking at a direct flight to Lima.... hmmmmmmmmm.
Wouldn't it be great if YVR could score Lima and Sao Paolo ?!? (I'm dreaming, I know ...)

zahav
Sep 9, 2014, 5:49 AM
American Airlines has switched the two daily "US Airways Express" flights to/from LAX starting Nov. 6. They will now be "American Eagle" flights, which is American AIrlines massive regional carrier. It had a notable absence from YVR, but is big in all of AA's hubs, and has a presence at most other decent size North American airports, including YUL and YYZ. Will be nice to have American Eagle after all this time, rather than just another "US Airways Express", which we've seen for years.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 9, 2014, 10:26 AM
And there we have it.... the last 763 YVR Trans-Pacific route gone.

Effective 1 March 2015 AC63/AC64 will be replaced with the 788. YVR-HKG remains the HD 77W.

Here is the 788 introducion timeline:

YVR-PVG 26 Oct
YVR-NRT 15 Dec
YVR-PEK 01 Feb
YVR-ICN 01 Mar

I would expect that next summer some of these routes (like PEK) will be upgauged to a 77W as well.

There is also going to be a lot of 788 flights between YVR and YYZ during the winter. According to the airlineroute.net article at least once a day effective 26 Oct. I am starting to see AC uploading these flights in their schedules. Looks like mainly the noon departure AC 102. This is on top of the three daily 77Ws as well.

This is great news for YVR as competition ramps up around it.

http://airlineroute.net/2014/09/09/ac-yvricn-mar15/

zahav
Sep 9, 2014, 2:53 PM
American Airlines has switched the two daily "US Airways Express" flights to/from LAX starting Nov. 6. They will now be "American Eagle" flights, which is American AIrlines massive regional carrier. It had a notable absence from YVR, but is big in all of AA's hubs, and has a presence at most other decent size North American airports, including YUL and YYZ. Will be nice to have American Eagle after all this time, rather than just another "US Airways Express", which we've seen for years.

Should add, although well known to most in this forum, this will make YVR-LAX one of the few, if not only, international routes to be operated all 4 major US carriers (low cost ie. Southwest not included): Delta, American, United, and Alaska will be operating. Very hard to find routes where all 4 compete, since their hub airports are mostly different and target different areas geographically. Nice to see YVR being the one

Johnny Aussie
Sep 9, 2014, 6:22 PM
Should add, although well known to most in this forum, this will make YVR-LAX one of the few, if not only, international routes to be operated all 4 major US carriers (low cost ie. Southwest not included): Delta, American, United, and Alaska will be operating. Very hard to find routes where all 4 compete, since their hub airports are mostly different and target different areas geographically. Nice to see YVR being the one

And both major Canadian carriers too!

Although DL's nonstop flights only operate for a few weeks over the peak Xmas period, they may eventually add flights year-round.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 9, 2014, 8:08 PM
Allegiant appears to be dropping Bellingham-Hawaii altogether now.

Originally they had cut frequencies, then became seasonal... now its gone.

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2014/09/08/3845228_allegiant-drops-flights-between.html?sp=/99/100/&rh=1

trofirhen
Sep 9, 2014, 8:31 PM
And there we have it.... the last 763 YVR Trans-Pacific route gone...........

...... {Please excuse the editing, Johnny}. ......

This is great news for YVR as competition ramps up around it.

http://airlineroute.net/2014/09/09/ac-yvricn-mar15/

Precisely where is this competion coming from? Seattle, principally? Toronto (surely not)!! If you could elaborate on this, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks once again, Johnnie.

teriyaki
Sep 9, 2014, 8:40 PM
Precisely where is this competion coming from? Seattle, principally? Toronto (surely not)!! If you could elaborate on this, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks once again, Johnnie.

I'd take a stab to say its a nod to Seattle where Delta is getting quite aggressive with its Trans-Pac flights. A quick check into pricing for October/November flights, it looks like DL is targeting Canadian customers.

Example:

A R/T flight from YVR to PEK with a connection in Seattle on DL is pricing out substantially lower than a flight directly from Seattle to Beijing.

On the flipside, Air Canada is playing the same game.

A R/T flight from Seattle connecting on AC Metal through Vancouver to Beijing is cheaper than a direct flight from Vancouver minus the Seattle connection.

They want to make the new Seattle Hub work, and no doubt they're willing to throw money at it to get peoples attention. I've routed myself through there once already with a too-good-to-resist fare to HKG. If prices stay the way they are, they might get my business again.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 9, 2014, 9:13 PM
Precisely where is this competion coming from? Seattle, principally? Toronto (surely not)!! If you could elaborate on this, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks once again, Johnnie.

Basically anywhere there is competition. Nobody is sitting still. SEA ramping up its DL gateway, YYC is opening its huge new IFP, sure even YYZ a bit for connecting traffic.

Although I say it over and over, YVR has always had to deal with SEA, BLI, YYC, YYZ etc but the dynamics keep changing.

I still look at SEA stats and am just really surprised at its slack growth. This may change but for now that's a fact. In July, the entire gain of DL int'l pax growth was wiped out almost entirely by just the axed UA flight to NRT. What does that tell you? It says they just cannot be filling those new flights. These numbers would also include the new YVR-SEA flights as well. I keep saying "surprised" because there is no doubt all those new flights would have plenty of intro offers plus all that feed that DL is building up. Of course they will be enticing Vancouverites to fill those empty planes. And of course, there will be plenty that will do that. If the price is right I am sure plenty of people will fly via SEA or drive there. In the years I lived in Vancouver, I actually did that twice. Who could pass up a $99 flight from SEA-EWR. However, now, and if I still lived there, my circumstances have changed and most likely I wouldn't do that again. In any event, YVR is fortunate to have a very solid base to build from and without a doubt YVR's Asia Pacific growth is exceeding the capacity growth which is a very healthy indication of market strength. Of course yields information remains unavailable to us outsiders looking in.

trofirhen
Sep 9, 2014, 11:04 PM
Firstly, to teriyaki and Johnny, thanks for that feedback.:):)
Johnny, interesting about the relative lack of Asia Pacific traffic from SEA-TAC compared to YVR.
*
On Another topic it was in the wind that KAL was thinking of doing
a Seoul - YVR- Lima tryout.
Hope it happens, hope it works.

OK; the tangent. Taking PAL as an example going from Manila to Lima:

May I present Exhibit A: Manila - Lima nonstop:

http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance/mnl-to-lim/

And now Exhibit B, Manila to Lima via YVR:

http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-yvr-lim/

The court may note that while the YVR routing is while the Vancouver routing is 424 miles longer, this routing might prove more profitable in yield

Also of interest is Manila - Sao Paulo

Nonstop:
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance/mnl-to-gru/ too long even for a 788

Via Jo'burg:
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-jnb-gru/

ok this is shorter, but is there enough O/D and connecting traffic to warrant it?
Is there a market there or elsewhere en route going east?

PAL (among others) have large markets in North America, and as Johnny, pointed out,
was surprised at the size of the Vancouver - Brazil market.

Oh, and as a last word, whereas most Asia - Brazil flights are shorter
through YYZ than YVR (except Lima): the distances of both city pairs is interesting to note here;
through YYZ, still shorter than via Vancouver:
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-yyz-gru/

from Vancouver:
http://www.airmilescalculator.com/distance3/mnl-to-yvr-gru/

:total distance, Vancouver loses by only 127 miles. The 8219 miles to YYZ would necessitate a 787, and that's unlikely given the cuts PAL already made there.

It seems Vancouver might have a chance at becoming a South America hinge after all.

hollywoodnorth
Sep 9, 2014, 11:53 PM
Allegiant appears to be dropping Bellingham-Hawaii altogether now.

Originally they had cut frequencies, then became seasonal... now its gone.

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2014/09/08/3845228_allegiant-drops-flights-between.html?sp=/99/100/&rh=1

booooooo yaaaaa! I so want BLI to die a fast death

Denscity
Sep 10, 2014, 12:37 AM
booooooo yaaaaa! I so want BLI to die a fast death

"Like"

Johnny Aussie
Sep 11, 2014, 4:55 AM
http://theflyingsocialnetwork.com/flyingsocial/site/article/air-new-zealand-adds-more-flights-to-its-north-american-routes

Next summer Air NZ boosting capacity by 10%. Boosting the summer scheds to 5 weekly for about twice as long as last summer.

As previously mentioned, 6 weekly planned for the upcoming winter scheds too up from 5 last year.

Pretty soon I bet we will see daily flights in the summer and peak winter with or without the 789.

trofirhen
Sep 11, 2014, 3:09 PM
http://theflyingsocialnetwork.com/flyingsocial/site/article/air-new-zealand-adds-more-flights-to-its-north-american-routes

Next summer Air NZ boosting capacity by 10%. Boosting the summer scheds to 5 weekly for about twice as long as last summer.

As previously mentioned, 6 weekly planned for the upcoming winter scheds too up from 5 last year.

Pretty soon I bet we will see daily flights in the summer and peak winter with or without the 789.
Found this in the Australian Busines Traveller. Vancouver plans by Air NZ mentioned a tad more than halfway down the page.
http://www.ausbt.com.au/air-new-zealand-maps-out-boeing-787-dreamliner-plans

craneSpotter
Sep 11, 2014, 7:54 PM
Found this in the Australian Busines Traveller. Vancouver plans by Air NZ mentioned a tad more than halfway down the page.
http://www.ausbt.com.au/air-new-zealand-maps-out-boeing-787-dreamliner-plans

A daily 787 to AKL :tup: Hope it happens soon.

trofirhen
Sep 13, 2014, 5:50 PM
A daily 787 to AKL :tup: Hope it happens soon.
For sure! Too cool!:tup:

Seriously though, I'd love YVR to become a real hub for Oceania, viz "Down Under." :notacrook:
Auckland and Sydney already operational, .... AC announcing 787 to Brisbane starting in 2015... (?) .... if not, maybe Jetstar could pick up BNE and / or MEL. (Melbourne, the fastest growing city in the country, and a strong civic adhesion to the concept of Vancouverism in urban growth, FYI)

{Melbourne, Australia’s second-largest city, has just released a report (http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/committees/osisdv/Liveability_Options/OSISDC_Liveability_20121212_FINAL_WEB_amended_20130131_condensed.pdf#page263) calling for a boldly Vancouverist solution to its urban-sprawl problem. (The 600-page report drops the word “Vancouver” almost 300 times.) “Vancouver has succeeded in preserving its liveability,” it concludes, “through the early and creative acceptance of the need for increased residential densities.” The B.C. city “is defined by a mixed-use commercial development of medium height located at the base of a high-rise residential tower, which is recessed from the lower levels and from the streets below” – the mighty Vancouver condo.}


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/doug-saunders-the-world-wants-vancouverism-shouldnt-canada/article8981162/
(about a third of the page down)

Off topic, off thread? Not really. This is an indicator of an affinity between two cities, one mid-mid-size, the other big-mid-size. If there's a market for BNE, surely there's a market for MEL. Or am I wrong? Their economic predictions are not so good, despite the rapid increase in city size.
(I'm thinking globally of business traffic yield, by the way.)

Johnny, would you know?

http://www.whocrashedtheeconomy.com/
http://www.melbourne.org.au/cms-policy/melbourne-beyond-5-million
http://geografia.com.au/melbourne/ (http://geografia.com.au/melbourne/)

Johnny Aussie
Sep 14, 2014, 4:19 AM
^

Just to be clear there has been no announcements about any further YVR-Australia flights, just continuing speculation. Melbourne's economic forecast is actually anything but bad so not sure where you got that.

The thing about Australian cities is, for example, the "City of Melbourne" is just a tiny area encompassing the CBD and just a bit of the area south of the river. Not like Canada or the USA where a city is huge in area. So in the economic reports you posted that is the Melbourne they are referring.

Overall Australia outlook? Well, the mining sector is slowing down.. the brakes are on after years of out of control growth. This doesn't affect Melbourne much other than having the corp HQ of the two largest mining companies in the world. But the slow downs are being noted in intrastate travel (including significant FIFO traffic) mainly out of Perth and Brisbane. Melbourne population is continuing to grow at just crazy numbers. Just under 100,000 per year. We are approaching the 5 million mark very quickly... we just passed the 4.4 million mark and most likely will be over 4.5 million next year. Melbourne has a very solid corporate/business base as well. Many company head offices and regional head offices (for foreign companies) are located here. So population and higher yielding business traffic would be Melbourne's advantage over Brisbane. But Brisbane without a doubt has a huge geographic advantage over Melbourne (regarding a possible YVR flight). And Melbourne is the most liveable city in the world for third year straight according to the Economist anyway! But the buildup of population in and around the city centre is beginning to have more of a Vancouver feel about it.

trofirhen
Sep 14, 2014, 7:05 AM
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Thank you for that feedback, Johnny !! :)

Johnny Aussie
Sep 14, 2014, 7:51 AM
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Thank you for that feedback, Johnny !! :)

Sure thing.

And after saying all that..... the PDEW figures between YVR and MEL and BNE just don't seem high enough to warrant direct flights. Sure YVR would attract other connecting traffic from Canada but probably not enough.

And as I have also said before, AC would also have to consider the traffic lost on their current SYD flights. It would be a tough fight to make any other Austalian route viable.

If there is another direct Canadian-Australia route it would most likely be from Vancouver anyway. O&D figures sure indicate this. YVR: ~ 270,000; YYZ: ~ 140,000; YYC ~ 50,000; YUL: ~ 35,000; YEG: ~ 21,000.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 14, 2014, 8:12 AM
On top of all the international and transborder changes coming... I got some info about the upcoming domestic winter scheds.

Overall little change from last winter for most BC / Alberta markets.

Will double check later in the week (from the Singapore Grand Prix!) if any changes.

YVR HIGHLIGHTS

YYZ: 10 daily (same as 2013) 3 daily 77W (including 1 HD), a daily 788 & a daily 763 for w/b action. 70 flights per week.
YUL: additional 2 flights per week to 27 pw. The daily morning 333 remains.
YOW: 2 daily (same as 2013). Both flights are 320s. Last year there was a 320/319 mix.
YYC: additional 5 weekly flights to 15 daily (13 on Saturdays, 11 on Sundays)
YLW: increasing from 9 to 10 daily (includes one daily mainline E90)
YXT: increasing from 4 to 5 daily (all DH3s)
YQR: increasing from 1 to 2 daily (both CRJs) - transferred capacity from YEG

There do not appear to be any YVR domestic routes with any declines of frequency or capacity.

Overall, AC operations are increasing by a rather substantial 40 departures per week this winter at YVR.

When all the 788 international routes kick in YVR will see 5 daily AC Dreamliners and 6 AC 77Ws. Not bad for winter!

.... also got a little hint at a possible rouge surprise for next summer.... nothing confirmed yet but perhaps soon.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 15, 2014, 7:54 PM
Kidding on the part 23 bit but as we all know UA changes every few weeks.

No frequency changes (YVR and YYC escaped any cuts this round, YEG losing more ORD and DEN) but some capacity additions at YVR noted.

Last winter almost all mainline UA flights other than IAH (738) were 319s so some decent capacity bumps for the period after the Xmas peak through mid Feb.

DEN - one of two daily will be operated by 320s
ORD - one of two daily will be operated by 320s
SFO - one of the four daily will be operated by 320s
IAH - the daily flight being upgauged to a 739

Johnny Aussie
Sep 15, 2014, 8:58 PM
Article in BIV (Business in Vancouver) about BC airlines riding a resource / tourism boom. Good read.

http://www.biv.com/article/20140909/BIV0118/309099970/bc-airlines-flying-high-on-resource-boom-tourism-upturn

Kapten
Sep 16, 2014, 1:28 AM
Air Canada Rouge begins non-stop service to Osaka.

See http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1411918/air-canada-to-launch-seasonal-flights-from-vancouver-to-osaka-japan

casper
Sep 16, 2014, 1:46 AM
Air Canada Rouge begins non-stop service to Osaka.

See http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1411918/air-canada-to-launch-seasonal-flights-from-vancouver-to-osaka-japan

Cool.... Air Canada and ANA are adding a lot of capacity to Japan from Canada.

Hopefully it eventually goes year round. What may also work in the future is have Osaka as a stop over and then have same aircraft service onto India.

casper
Sep 16, 2014, 1:52 AM
Short term peek return to Vancouver ......


http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-customers-pack-their-bags-for-vancouver

Johnny Aussie
Sep 16, 2014, 2:17 AM
^^

... also got a little hint at a possible rouge surprise for next summer.... nothing confirmed yet but perhaps soon.

And there you have it!! .... there may be more surprises to come... Ooh la la!

Johnny Aussie
Sep 16, 2014, 2:21 AM
Short term peek return to Vancouver ......


http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-customers-pack-their-bags-for-vancouver

Wow... That came out of left field. Only 6 return trips but hey... It's a start! And more 744 action.

I was thinking perhaps Jetstar extends its SYD-HNL 788s to YVR... Just a thought!

Coldrsx
Sep 16, 2014, 2:30 AM
Cool.... Air Canada and ANA are adding a lot of capacity to Japan from Canada.

Hopefully it eventually goes year round. What may also work in the future is have Osaka as a stop over and then have same aircraft service onto India.

Wicked, duly noted.

Klazu
Sep 16, 2014, 2:57 AM
Wow, great news there! Why cannot Qantas fly their A380 here at least once, just to tease us. ;) I really hope they will return more permanently.

Amazing news about Osaka as well. YVR represents! :yes:

Klazu
Sep 16, 2014, 3:03 AM
Okay, time for some photos in between. I was in Richmond yesterday and the weather was superb. Actually it was so warm that the air was vibrating like on a hot summer day!

Float plane terminal.
http://vuosiamaailmalla.fi/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/yvr_etelaterminaali.jpg

Air Canada 767 (I think) taking off.
http://vuosiamaailmalla.fi/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/air_canada_767.jpg

Followed by AC 777.
http://vuosiamaailmalla.fi/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/air_canada_777.jpg

Terminal construction
http://vuosiamaailmalla.fi/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/yvr1.jpg

YVR panorama
http://vuosiamaailmalla.fi/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/yvr_panoraama1.jpg

http://vuosiamaailmalla.fi/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/yvr_panoraama2.jpg

Am I the only one who thinks that the airport Fairmont is one butt-ugly building? :frog:

Denscity
Sep 16, 2014, 3:19 AM
So another 747, another airline, and another international city added this week. Go YVR GO!!

deasine
Sep 16, 2014, 5:52 AM
As I suspected as part of the Westjet-Qantas agreement, Qantas is set to fly to Vancouver, thereby finally once again challenging the AC monopoly.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-to-fly-to-vancouver-in-january-2015?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper

Edit: whoops this post posted significantly later for whatever reason.

trofirhen
Sep 16, 2014, 5:57 AM
As I suspected as part of the Westjet-Qantas agreement, Qantas is set to fly to Vancouver, thereby finally once again challenging the AC monopoly.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-to-fly-to-vancouver-in-january-2015?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper

Too bad it's so short-lived. I'd love to see Qantas back at YVR year-round.

nname
Sep 16, 2014, 6:57 AM
Short term peek return to Vancouver ......


http://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/qantas-customers-pack-their-bags-for-vancouver

QF75 arrives Vancouver on Sat, Wed at 9:45
QF76 leaves Vancouver on Sun, Thu at 23:45

The plane will stay in Vancouver for 38 hours each time it got here?

Johnny Aussie
Sep 16, 2014, 10:02 AM
So with KIX going 5 weekly....

that gives 2 weekly flights available to go somewhere else. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 weekly NGO added as well.... Or perhaps??

deasine
Sep 17, 2014, 1:01 AM
QF75 arrives Vancouver on Sat, Wed at 9:45
QF76 leaves Vancouver on Sun, Thu at 23:45

The plane will stay in Vancouver for 38 hours each time it got here?

Luckily the cost of parking relative to many North American airports is comparatively affordable, though QF also needs to compensate staff for such long layovers (bare in mind though the flights are pretty long which would require longer breaks under Australian labour laws I think).

QF also doesn't have too much choice. The 747 is the only suitable aircraft to deploy to YVR. They only have that, or the A380. Their limited fleet restricts the ability to open gateways with sustained frequency (you can see where I stand with QF and their 777 vs. A380 debate). And to prevent a sudden flood of capacity in the market, thereby significantly lowering yields, QF can only deploy a 747 in a low frequency. The issue here is that it is much harder for QF to compete against AC which would runs a daily 777 operation (and last year during the winter, ran a 10-weekly flight).

There's undoubtedly demand for flights from Canada to Australia, before 2012, Australians had the most passengers travelling to Canada excluding Americans. But back then QF didn't have the right fleet nor the right partnerships in place to make a SYD-YVR route sustainable (I would also not the right management either...).

casper
Sep 17, 2014, 5:15 AM
Luckily the cost of parking relative to many North American airports is comparatively affordable, though QF also needs to compensate staff for such long layovers (bare in mind though the flights are pretty long which would require longer breaks under Australian labour laws I think).

QF also doesn't have too much choice. The 747 is the only suitable aircraft to deploy to YVR. They only have that, or the A380. Their limited fleet restricts the ability to open gateways with sustained frequency (you can see where I stand with QF and their 777 vs. A380 debate). And to prevent a sudden flood of capacity in the market, thereby significantly lowering yields, QF can only deploy a 747 in a low frequency. The issue here is that it is much harder for QF to compete against AC which would runs a daily 777 operation (and last year during the winter, ran a 10-weekly flight).

There's undoubtedly demand for flights from Canada to Australia, before 2012, Australians had the most passengers travelling to Canada excluding Americans. But back then QF didn't have the right fleet nor the right partnerships in place to make a SYD-YVR route sustainable (I would also not the right management either...).

Not certain if it is the case. But I read that when Air Canada was running the 10 flights it was hitting the maximum number of seats it was allowed to operate between Australia and Canada.

For many years Air Canada operated a 767 with a stop in Hawaii. Any before that I think it was Canadian with some partnerships with QF in some way

Johnny Aussie
Sep 17, 2014, 11:55 PM
The August prelim UK stats are out and YVR and YYC have fared very well in load factors for the month. Good to see both YVR and YYC absorbing a lot of the new capacity. The YEG figures also indicate the impact of Icelandair there.

Western Canada LFs for August:

LHR: YVR 94.9% YYC 92.3% YEG 89.8%
LGW: YVR 97.7% YYC 90.2% YEG 75.0% (last Aug was 90.0% - ouch!)
MAN: YVR 95.1%
GLA: YVR 91.6%
MAN/GLA: YYC 94.3% (combined route on TS)

YVR-LHR increased by over 7,000 in August which means almost 90% of the additional capacity was absorbed. This means the market can handle it. With VS pulling out, I can see BA going to double daily easy.

I was pleasantly surprised at LGW as well. The decrease in LGW (less than 150 pax only) was due to one less one way flight. But the LF has improved from 96.5% to 97.7%. Those are some pretty full planes from YVR to the UK.

Cage
Sep 18, 2014, 12:18 AM
Good article on the problems at Air India.
http://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2014/09/air-india-loses-money-on-all-but-two-international-flights.html

Bottom line, AI loses money on 57 out of 59 international routes. The only two international routes AI makes money are regional services to Kathmandu and Rangoon.

Some routes did not even have enough revenue to cover the gas bill. But on several Ultra Long Haul routes I have heard fuel costs can be 80% of total costs. Normal domestic services have fuel cost comprising 25-30% of total cost.

Cage
Sep 18, 2014, 12:21 AM
Luckily the cost of parking relative to many North American airports is comparatively affordable, though QF also needs to compensate staff for such long layovers (bare in mind though the flights are pretty long which would require longer breaks under Australian labour laws I think).

It would not surprise me to learn that QF deadhead the crew to LAX. Crew pairing could be SYD-YVR DH LAX-SYD and reverse.

Cage
Sep 18, 2014, 12:43 AM
Too bad it's so short-lived. I'd love to see Qantas back at YVR year-round.

Two possibilities come to mind:
1) No other use for the aircraft.
2) QF has a risk sharing partner (e.g. consolidator or tour operator) based in Australia that has taken up some of the seats.

In any event I don't see this becoming a seasonal or year round route. At YYC we have seen this marekt before with Korean and Asiana flying ICN-YYC n/s during the summer, they brought Koreans to Banff to see the mountains.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 18, 2014, 1:09 AM
Two possibilities come to mind:
1) No other use for the aircraft.
2) QF has a risk sharing partner (e.g. consolidator or tour operator) based in Australia that has taken up some of the seats.

In any event I don't see this becoming a seasonal or year round route. At YYC we have seen this marekt before with Korean and Asiana flying ICN-YYC n/s during the summer, they brought Koreans to Banff to see the mountains.

That QF announcement caught us off guard. I was surprised at how much attention it got too. With the amount of discussion it raised you would have thought a permanent daily non-stop had been announced. And the 744 is just too big to fly that route at any other time of year. Until QF gets any of the 787s coming online or transferred from Jetstar it isn't going to happen.

Long term though I can see QF back on a permanent basis or Jetstar even going non stop or via HNL. There is not a more perfect stop for SYD-YVR if there is to be one. Straight line right over Hawaii. I remember when Air NZ started flights with 1 747 a week to YVR. I honestly would never have guessed they would be increasing to 6 weekly in the peak winter period and 5 in the summer.

The difference too with the Korean trials were there were no direct flights anyway whereas we all know AC is doing just fine on the SYD-YVR route.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 18, 2014, 1:52 AM
Good article on the problems at Air India.
http://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2014/09/air-india-loses-money-on-all-but-two-international-flights.html

Bottom line, AI loses money on 57 out of 59 international routes. The only two international routes AI makes money are regional services to Kathmandu and Rangoon.

Some routes did not even have enough revenue to cover the gas bill. But on several Ultra Long Haul routes I have heard fuel costs can be 80% of total costs. Normal domestic services have fuel cost comprising 25-30% of total cost.

Don't think we will be seeing Air India in Canada again anytime soon!

Johnny Aussie
Sep 18, 2014, 8:54 AM
Hot on the heels of the recently announced new temporary QF services....

Qantas applying for thrice-weekly year-round SYD-YVR services.

Application is for Australia-Canada but my contacts say specifically SYD-YVR.

1,092 return seats per week which is 3 - 364 seater 744s.

The application is for Qantas or its subsidiaries but that is just standard application jargon by Qantas.

More info in this article plus a draft of the application dated 17th September.

Doesn't mean it will be used year-round, but certainly gives Qantas the ability to offer flights whenever it wants up to the weekly cap.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-mulls-ongoing-vancouver-flights?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper

So YVR may perhaps see the flying kangaroo more regularly after all!

trofirhen
Sep 18, 2014, 1:58 PM
Hot on the heels of the recently announced new temporary QF services....

Qantas applying for thrice-weekly year-round SYD-YVR services.

Application is for Australia-Canada but my contacts say specifically SYD-YVR.

1,092 return seats per week which is 3 - 364 seater 744s.

The application is for Qantas or its subsidiaries but that is just standard application jargon by Qantas.

More info in this article plus a draft of the application dated 17th September.

Doesn't mean it will used year-round, but certainly gives Qantas the ability to offer flights whenever it wants up to the weekly cap.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-mulls-ongoing-vancouver-flights?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper

So YVR may perhaps see the flying kangaroo more regularly after all!
Yippi ai o - callé !! callé !!!! Come back QANTAS !! :D

Canadian74
Sep 18, 2014, 6:02 PM
Why not MEL.... !!!

Canadian74
Sep 18, 2014, 6:03 PM
Good article on the problems at Air India.
http://www.bangaloreaviation.com/2014/09/air-india-loses-money-on-all-but-two-international-flights.html

Bottom line, AI loses money on 57 out of 59 international routes. The only two international routes AI makes money are regional services to Kathmandu and Rangoon.

Some routes did not even have enough revenue to cover the gas bill. But on several Ultra Long Haul routes I have heard fuel costs can be 80% of total costs. Normal domestic services have fuel cost comprising 25-30% of total cost.

I wonder how Jet is doing at YYZ... Didn't they upgrade to a 77W from 332/333 for sometime?

twoNeurons
Sep 18, 2014, 9:38 PM
Wow! Great news about YVR - KIX (Osaka).

It's an AC Rouge flight, so their flights will likely be priced very competitively as well as opening up Kansai to BC. There's a huge tourism potential for both YVR and YYC from Western Japan.

KIX is also becoming a LCC hub with Peach (ANA subsidiary) being a major tenant, now that HND is taking its place as a proper competitor to ICN.

It also has a large list of smaller Chinese destinations:
Nanjing, Qingdao, Shanghai-Pudong, Yantai, Dalian... etc.

Great addition, I'm happy to see YVR-KIX back, even if it's only seasonal (for now).

trofirhen
Sep 18, 2014, 10:37 PM
Why not MEL.... !!!
... I asked the same question, and the answer is first that it would hurt the Sydney route yield,
and secondly that there just isn't the demand.... yet ;)

Cage
Sep 18, 2014, 11:14 PM
Hot on the heels of the recently announced new temporary QF services....

Qantas applying for thrice-weekly year-round SYD-YVR services.

Application is for Australia-Canada but my contacts say specifically SYD-YVR.

1,092 return seats per week which is 3 - 364 seater 744s.

The application is for Qantas or its subsidiaries but that is just standard application jargon by Qantas.

More info in this article plus a draft of the application dated 17th September.

Doesn't mean it will used year-round, but certainly gives Qantas the ability to offer flights whenever it wants up to the weekly cap.

http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-mulls-ongoing-vancouver-flights?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper

So YVR may perhaps see the flying kangaroo more regularly after all!

Hate to be the Debbie downer all the time, but it looks like the letter from QF to Australian govt is an application for 3 weekly services they plan to operate. January 2015 and is not an application to extend the planned service to year round.

It seems to me the application is for ad hoc seasonal service not to exceed 1092 seats per week. What is the reference to fully utilizing the capacity by March 31, 2015?

Finally after reviewing many correspondence and applications filed to transport canada and Canadian transport agency, this application to Australian government is very casual language. I know the Aussie's are laid back, but this is quite the eye opener.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 18, 2014, 11:54 PM
Hate to be the Debbie downer all the time, but it looks like the letter from QF to Australian govt is an application for 3 weekly services they plan to operate. January 2015 and is not an application to extend the planned service to year round.

It seems to me the application is for ad hoc seasonal service not to exceed 1092 seats per week. What is the reference to fully utilizing the capacity by March 31, 2015?

Finally after reviewing many correspondence and applications filed to transport canada and Canadian transport agency, this application to Australian government is very casual language. I know the Aussie's are laid back, but this is quite the eye opener.

All this does is allow QF to operate year-round up to 1092 seats per week at any time of year without having to re-apply each time. Valid for five years. The application does refer to "throughout the year" as well. The March 2015 reference infers that they plan to be fully utilising this capacity by then. This is the end of our 3rd quarter fiscal 2015. So it's really just market guidance indicating by the end of the 3rd quarter this capacity will be utilised. The January 2015 flights would fall into this period.

Yup rather casual language but that's apparently how it's done.

I am notoriously known as a Debbie Downer too. Nobody wants to hear "bad news" just cover your ears and eyes and run and just wish it away. But I appreciate your questioning of this too. It really does appear rather vague but according to my QF contacts it does appear YVR is actually in the cards for ongoing year-round flights. In the meantime I suspect seasonal regular flights (June-September and December - February) to cash in on the heavy traffic being noticed. This application will allow this.

In any event, the QF news on the surface can still be put into the "good news" category as even if this really is it... it is better than nothing. There is no way they are going to let AC have the route all to themselves forever!

Right now at YVR there is so much good news even the "bad stuff" (eg Virgin Atlantic) is just so minimal. With the UK stats showing how strong LHR is from a LF perceptive clearly VS wasn't doing well enough to stay.

deasine
Sep 19, 2014, 12:36 AM
Why not MEL.... !!!

... I asked the same question, and the answer is first that it would hurt the Sydney route yield,
and secondly that there just isn't the demand.... yet ;)

Well SYD was always the flagship international hub for QF. Moreover, QF never has a limited fleet that a MEL-YVR route will *definitely* not work.

HOWEVER, if QF continues to operate this route, there may more encouragement for AC to operate a YVR-MEL route. Here are some reasons:

QF operating a 747 YVR-SYD even at lower frequencies will ultimately cause a shift in O&D passengers to QF on the route at ACs expense
QF can operate YVR-SYD, but also has a supporting domestic network in SYD to operate to other destinations beyond SYD including MEL, something AC does not as it does not have the adequate codeshare partnerships with Australian carriers
Given the supply increase and shift in O&D passengers explained in (1), AC will ultimately lose passengers and have a lower load factor if it keeps current capacity levels. AC could downguage the 777 to a 787 to keep load factors and profitability high.
AC can then introduce a 787 to MEL to compete with QFs supporting domestic network as per (2). But I would not expect this to be a daily frequency by any means.


Ultimately, an introduction of a 787 on both routes should allow AC to operate YVR-SYD and YVR-MEL at relatively high frequencies (not daily frequencies on both routes however). But this is speculative. Another option AC can and should explore is to codeshare with Virgin Australia in order to allow AC to have feed at both ends to better compete with QF, just as QF has feed at YVR with WS codeshare relationship.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 19, 2014, 2:28 AM
^
As much as I would love to see MEL-YVR nonstop, I just don't see the market viability right now. Maybe in just a few more years.

In any event, if it were to happen, I would be the route's first passenger!

When QF finally phases out its 744s, I would think year round YVR-SYD 787 flights will eventuate. Perhaps even up to daily.

nname
Sep 19, 2014, 2:42 AM
What about the possibility of MEL-SYD-YVR?

Cage
Sep 19, 2014, 2:51 AM
Right now at YVR there is so much good news even the "bad stuff" (eg Virgin Atlantic) is just so minimal. With the UK stats showing how strong LHR is from a LF perceptive clearly VS wasn't doing well enough to stay.

I view VS pullout of YVR As neutral to good news story. I would rather have two strong stable competitors than 3 competitors with one being an irrational player and pulling the other two airlines into break even or loss positions.

Agreed YVR has witnessed a long string of good news stories. I am also hoping that YVR Takes to AC rouge the same way YYZ has accepted rouge on the long haul. I can easily imagine 4-6 TATL and 4-6 TPAC runs that are viable rouge destinations.

deasine
Sep 19, 2014, 5:49 AM
What about the possibility of MEL-SYD-YVR?

Well UA did that on a LAX-SYD-MEL with the old 747 (which now split into LAX-SYD on 777, LAX-MEL on a 787), and same with QF as they operate a LAX-JFK, but airlines avoid doing this because your domestic leg is flown as an international flight, meaning you can't pick up additional passengers. That means an airline is most likely running the domestic portion half empty, which is inefficient and a rather expensive operation.

Cage
Sep 19, 2014, 6:09 AM
^
As much as I would love to see MEL-YVR nonstop, I just don't see the market viability right now. Maybe in just a few more years.

In any event, if it were to happen, I would be the route's first passenger!

When QF finally phases out its 744s, I would think year round YVR-SYD 787 flights will eventuate. Perhaps even up to daily.

Correct me if I am wrong, but all the 788 for qantas group are allocated to jetstar division. Also it appear that jetstar seat plan has 330+ seats on their 788 to AC 251 seats.

For this reason I don't think the jetstar configured 788 is a good fit for SYD-YVR route. If I was AC I would gladly go up against jetstar 788 because the economy seats are the same, jet stars business class is the same product as AC premium economy, and jetstar does not have a true business class product. All this in a very high yield route.

One other thing to note, AC and QF have a good interline relationship. In a YVR-SYD-ADL route the final leg is on QF but the ticketing airline is AC. With the prorate agreement between AC and QF there is no reason to involve virgin Australia.

nname
Sep 19, 2014, 6:11 AM
Well UA did that on a LAX-SYD-MEL with the old 747 (which now split into LAX-SYD on 777, LAX-MEL on a 787), and same with QF as they operate a LAX-JFK, but airlines avoid doing this because your domestic leg is flown as an international flight, meaning you can't pick up additional passengers. That means an airline is most likely running the domestic portion half empty, which is inefficient and a rather expensive operation.

AC is selling the YVR-YYZ portion of AC33/34 though.. I wonder how that one works

Cage
Sep 19, 2014, 6:16 AM
Why not MEL.... !!!

The problem with doing a MEL flight is that is it's not very complementary to SYD. Here let me explain.

To do MEL and SYD would require 788 service. Which in AC seating terms means about 500 seat, a significant increase from the current 279 seats and the recently introduced 77w services at 350 seats. A dual 788 operation require 4 aircraft for daily to both MEL and SYD. This would leave SYD services short for seats and the MEL services with too many seats.

Cage
Sep 19, 2014, 6:18 AM
AC is selling the YVR-YYZ portion of AC33/34 though.. I wonder how that one works

AC has domestic rights in canada to sell the seats. The aircraft arrive at domestic gate. Fort international arrivals, everyone has to get off the airplane to clear customs at first point arrival, therefore all YZ bound traffic clears in Vr and then reboards the same plane for YZ.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 19, 2014, 7:33 AM
Correct me if I am wrong, but all the 788 for qantas group are allocated to jetstar division.

That is 100% correct but what QF does (like between AC and rouge) is transfer and reconfigure the layout to an appropriate mix based on the carrier.

The rumour is some or most of the QF/JQ 787s will end up at Qantas.

This may happen sooner than later. Most recently a few A330s have been / are being transferred from JQ to QF as the 763s are retired.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 19, 2014, 7:39 AM
I view VS pullout of YVR As neutral to good news story. I would rather have two strong stable competitors than 3 competitors with one being an irrational player and pulling the other two airlines into break even.

And again agreed in the sense it really isn't that bad of news hence my " ". Just in the sense of losing a carrier. There is a huge YVR-LHR market and VS certainly hasn't had trouble filling their aircraft during their summer seasonal services. YVR-LHR will continue to be a very strong O&D market and a fantastic connecting hub for BA pax. Will wait and see if BA, or even AC, makes a move or not

Canadian74
Sep 19, 2014, 3:29 PM
The problem with doing a MEL flight is that is it's not very complementary to SYD. Here let me explain.

To do MEL and SYD would require 788 service. Which in AC seating terms means about 500 seat, a significant increase from the current 279 seats and the recently introduced 77w services at 350 seats. A dual 788 operation require 4 aircraft for daily to both MEL and SYD. This would leave SYD services short for seats and the MEL services with too many seats.

How about they continue operating the 777 to SYD daily and launch MEL with 3-4 weekly 788/789? That still wouldn't work?

Cage
Sep 19, 2014, 5:26 PM
How about they continue operating the 777 to SYD daily and launch MEL with 3-4 weekly 788/789? That still wouldn't work?

77L with 270 seats to SYD on daily basis plus 4weekly 788 service with 250 seats has a good possibility during the peak seasons.

However any North America service n/s to MEL, I would wait and see the early results of UA's 789 services LAX-MEL.

deasine
Sep 20, 2014, 5:40 AM
However any North America service n/s to MEL, I would wait and see the early results of UA's 789 services LAX-MEL.

Definitely true. And even with a successful LAX-MEL, AC would need to air on the side of caution. UA's LAX-MEL at the end of the day can cover a much larger geography than YVRs in terms of transfer passengers.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 20, 2014, 9:04 PM
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6184505

Possibly an indication the DL SEA hub not meeting expectations. Obviously on this route at least.

Pulling effective 1 Oct and set to resume next March at the moment. With such short notice that route must be just hemmorhaging.

Also, noticed quite a few frequency reductions on most SEA-Asia routes for the winter. Normal seasonal reductions occur on a lot of carriers though.

The stats being pumped out by SEA really do indicate all these new flights cannot be anywhere near full.

trofirhen
Sep 20, 2014, 9:40 PM
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6184505

Possibly an indication the DL SEA hub not meeting expectations. Obviously on this route at least.

Pulling effective 1 Oct and set to resume next March at the moment. With such short notice that route must be just hemmorhaging.

Also, noticed quite a few frequency reductions on most SEA-Asia routes for the winter. Normal seasonal reductions occur on a lot of carriers though.

The stats being pumped out by SEA really do indicate all these new flights cannot be anywhere near full.

More power to YVR !!!!! :notacrook:

YVR Bruce
Sep 20, 2014, 10:50 PM
Will wait and see if BA, or even AC, makes a move or not

Not everyone flying VS / BA /AC on the YVR-LHR run is heading to London. Hopefully AC Rouge will bid for some of that VS traffic by putting on 3/wk to EDI + 3/wk to CDG

I believe AC / Rouge are already cycling crews thru there, so ground costs of such services should be OK

Johnny Aussie
Sep 20, 2014, 11:08 PM
Not everyone flying VS / BA /AC on the YVR-LHR run is heading to London. Hopefully AC Rouge will bid for some of that VS traffic by putting on 3/wk to EDI + 3/wk to CDG

I believe AC / Rouge are already cycling crews thru there, so ground costs of such services should be OK

You are correct. But with VS gone, BA could restore its 6th weekly and perhaps go double daily. Huge O&D market plus BA's enormous hub makes it attractive.

3 per week to EDI would be too much for YVR... But CDG? hmmmm.

Also got word that Icelandair is not pulling out of YVR. That info came direct from North America marketing. I'd be surprised if they wouldn't know.... but you never know... anyway.

YVR Bruce
Sep 21, 2014, 3:21 AM
As much as colourful tails at YVR create satisfaction for spotting, at the end of the day this is a transportation facility driven by the people who pay the airfares. I travel regularly to Europe: last week to/from FRA and this coming Tues CDG via YYZ. Next, YVR-AMS in 4 weeks. AC and Star are most relevant to the travel spending of people at my company.

The AC:LH relationship appears to be strained, no doubt due to the drain of traffic to EK / EY / TK. Lack of opportunity to/at FRA/MUC -particularly for YVR - has only induced AC’s further interest in IST. Which of course bypasses Germany and further aggravates the Star problem.

For Vancouver, this translates into a need for AC to seek better ways to cover Europe. For my travel needs, I hope AC pushes Rouge into places like CDG and perhaps AMS. OK, I was optimistic about EDI – but even they could see 1/wk given YYZ flight crews are already sitting at hotels there (a major cost issue for sporadic ops).

The best AC YVR Euro-strategy in my mind would be for them to have as many direct Rouge services as practical, and for the rest - use CPH alongside FRA; AC already has daily CPH service from YYZ, so YVR could turn there without big extra costs. SAS would love the feed into their network, and the CPH terminal is much easier to use than FRA

Johnny Aussie
Sep 21, 2014, 4:19 AM
^ yup.

As I have stated many times, there are very few opportunities left for YVR-Europe, especially establishing new year-round services. Even KLM reduces flights to 5 weekly during the winter. Summertime sees about 70 weekly flights while in winter that reduces to 27 only.

Rouge will probably start up some seasonal routes to Europe from YVR but don't expect too much in the way of new markets if any. Sure EDI or GLA once a week, maybe MAN a couple per week, CDG a few times a week. Rouge will depend almost entirely on O&D. The UK, Germany, France and the Netherlands are Western Canada's biggest markets. Outside of that, very few countries generate enough O&D to make any new market viable. Transat tried Spain and Italy and those lasted not more than two seasons. Although trying to fill 350 seat planes would have been a challenge. Rouge's 280-seater 763s may be more right-sized. If rouge goes after Air Transat in YVR watch for MAN, CDG, GLA (maybe EDI).

Perhaps get a jump on Westjet but most likely those will be out of YYC which is an even significantly smaller O&D market. Perhaps Westjet's aim is to wipe TS out of Alberta altogether.

In any event I predict MAN, GLA, CDG and NGO as other new routes by rouge within the next couple of years, on top of the first overseas route of KIX already announced.

trofirhen
Sep 21, 2014, 11:06 AM
As much as colourful tails at YVR create satisfaction for spotting, at the end of the day this is a transportation facility driven by the people who pay the airfares. I travel regularly to Europe: last week to/from FRA and this coming Tues CDG via YYZ. Next, YVR-AMS in 4 weeks. AC and Star are most relevant to the travel spending of people at my company.

The AC:LH relationship appears to be strained, no doubt due to the drain of traffic to EK / EY / TK. Lack of opportunity to/at FRA/MUC -particularly for YVR - has only induced AC’s further interest in IST. Which of course bypasses Germany and further aggravates the Star problem.

For Vancouver, this translates into a need for AC to seek better ways to cover Europe. For my travel needs, I hope AC pushes Rouge into places like CDG and perhaps AMS. OK, I was optimistic about EDI – but even they could see 1/wk given YYZ flight crews are already sitting at hotels there (a major cost issue for sporadic ops).

The best AC YVR Euro-strategy in my mind would be for them to have as many direct Rouge services as practical, and for the rest - use CPH alongside FRA; AC already has daily CPH service from YYZ, so YVR could turn there without big extra costs. SAS would love the feed into their network, and the CPH terminal is much easier to use than FRA


Regarding AC from YVR to Europe, in this case CDG (which will never see year-round service from YVR),
what about Paris ORY (Orly)? Orly connects to a lot of destinations within France, but in particular, to the Mediterranean - many summer holiday destinations, which seems the main summer draw to France.
Forget CDG. Forget year-round to Paris. It'll never happen, I'm sure.

casper
Sep 21, 2014, 2:12 PM
^ yup.

As I have stated many times, there are very few opportunities left for YVR-Europe, especially establishing new year-round services. Even KLM reduces flights to 5 weekly during the winter. Summertime sees about 70 weekly flights while in winter that reduces to 27 only.

Rouge will probably start up some seasonal routes to Europe from YVR but don't expect too much in the way of new markets if any. Sure EDI or GLA once a week, maybe MAN a couple per week, CDG a few times a week. Rouge will depend almost entirely on O&D. The UK, Germany, France and the Netherlands are Western Canada's biggest markets. Outside of that, very few countries generate enough O&D to make any new market viable. Transat tried Spain and Italy and those lasted not more than two seasons. Although trying to fill 350 seat planes would have been a challenge. Rouge's 280-seater 763s may be more right-sized. If rouge goes after Air Transat in YVR watch for MAN, CDG, GLA (maybe EDI).

Perhaps get a jump on Westjet but most likely those will be out of YYC which is an even significantly smaller O&D market. Perhaps Westjet's aim is to wipe TS out of Alberta altogether.

In any event I predict MAN, GLA, CDG and NGO as other new routes by rouge within the next couple of years, on top of the first overseas route of KIX already announced.

I think Rogue has one major advantage of Transat that may make some of these routes much more viable. Transat does not interline with anyone. The Rogue flights have Air Canada codes and interline with other airlines at both ends. That extra feel may be just enough to turn a slightly unprofitable route into one that Is profitable.

whatnext
Sep 21, 2014, 5:53 PM
I think Rogue has one major advantage of Transat that may make some of these routes much more viable. Transat does not interline with anyone. The Rogue flights have Air Canada codes and interline with other airlines at both ends. That extra feel may be just enough to turn a slightly unprofitable route into one that Is profitable.

Rouge is the most uincomfortable airline I have been on in years, enough so that I'll forgo Aeroplan points just to avoid being stuck on one of their 319s.

Cage
Sep 21, 2014, 6:53 PM
WRT AC rouge services to Europe from YVR, I can see the following coming true:

CDG 3-4 times per week summer service. Would require heavy involvement (market maker) with tour operator to advertise the service. AC has done YVR-CDG in the past with mixed results. Year one summer seasonal service was okay for load and profit, but year two service stunk once the advertising died down and than market for once in lifetime Parisian holiday dried up.

AMS 3-4 times per week. If AC wanted to pick a fight with KLM, using rouge as weapon of yield destruction. They could also do YYC-AMS 2-3 times per week to put max pressure on KLM. The route would be only marginally profitable but getting KlM group to retreat would be Longterm gain.

I could see 2-3 times per week service YVR-LGW to test out how AC mainline and rouge can work together and not cannibalize yields. The only problem is the 77Hd is a compromise between rouge and international mainline.

DUS worked in the past for AC, but this was before KLM got big into YVR market.

MAN/GLA/EDI Could work on less than 4 times weekly basis, like CDG would also require a lot of advertising and tour operator support. These services would be a good way to fend off WS and force retreat by Group TransAt.

For winter service I could see MBJ and CUN work out.

One market I don't see working out for rouge is YYZ-HNL. This one season wonder will put extra focus back onto YVR Hawaii services.

casper
Sep 22, 2014, 3:55 AM
....
One market I don't see working out for rouge is YYZ-HNL. This one season wonder will put extra focus back onto YVR Hawaii services.

I am surprised you say that. Air Canada has operated that flight for decades.

Cage
Sep 23, 2014, 5:04 PM
I am surprised you say that. Air Canada has operated that flight for decades.

AC has operated YVR-HNL for decades, but new route is YYZ-HNL nonstop on AC rouge. The YYZ-HNL route won't work because of costs. HNL is much higher cost than comparable Caribbean or Mexican destinations. The market AC rouge is hoping to tap is the people who always wanted to try Hawaii just cause its someplace new. This crowd might get discouraged once the see cost differences at the destination, no amount of discounting the flight portion can compensate for destination costs.

In the end the discontinuance of YYZ-HNL would be a pick up for YVR as connection traffic is 2x the number of pax.

craneSpotter
Sep 23, 2014, 9:15 PM
Hmmm... bums in seats. Now that Air India is part of the Star Alliance...to be expected.

Air India Opens Reservation for Air Canada Code share Service from Oct 2014

Air India on 23SEP14 has loaded planned code share routes with Air Canada into the GDS, as partnership with Air Canada commences on 02OCT14.

The following is Air India’s planned code share routes operated by Air Canada, which reservation is now open.

Hong Kong – Vancouver
London Heathrow – Calgary
London Heathrow – Edmonton
London Heathrow – Halifax
London Heathrow – St. John’s NFLD
London Heathrow – Toronto
London Heathrow – Vancouver
Paris CDG – Montreal
Paris CDG – Toronto
Shanghai Pu Dong – Vancouver


Code shared flights operated by Air India reported yesterday: Air Canada / Air India Plans Codeshare Partnership from Oct 2014 - http://airlineroute.net/2014/09/22/acai-codeshare-oct14/

trofirhen
Sep 23, 2014, 10:10 PM
AC has operated YVR-HNL for decades, but new route is YYZ-HNL nonstop on AC rouge. The YYZ-HNL route won't work because of costs. HNL is much higher cost than comparable Caribbean or Mexican destinations. The market AC rouge is hoping to tap is the people who always wanted to try Hawaii just cause its someplace new. This crowd might get discouraged once the see cost differences at the destination, no amount of discounting the flight portion can compensate for destination costs.

In the end the discontinuance of YYZ-HNL would be a pick up for YVR as connection traffic is 2x the number of pax.
2x the number of pax for YVR to HNL? Wheeeeeeew!!!
I'm not arguing, but that seems incredible! Hope you're right; that's a jackpot for YVR on that run, anyway.

Cage
Sep 24, 2014, 4:06 AM
2x the number of pax for YVR to HNL? Wheeeeeeew!!!
I'm not arguing, but that seems incredible! Hope you're right; that's a jackpot for YVR on that run, anyway.

I think your slightly miss reading the situation.

For clarity, if 100 pax do YYZ-YVR-HNL then YVR gets to count both the arrival and the departure for 200 pax. This does not mean that pax cout on YVR-HNL will double.

trofirhen
Sep 24, 2014, 5:20 AM
I think your slightly miss reading the situation.

For clarity, if 100 pax do YYZ-YVR-HNL then YVR gets to count both the arrival and the departure for 200 pax. This does not mean that pax cout on YVR-HNL will double.
That makes a lot more sense.:koko:Thanks