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Gordon
Aug 18, 2016, 9:15 PM
787-9 or 777-20LR

Johnny Aussie
Aug 19, 2016, 12:22 AM
It's all pretty exciting.

Like I said about a month ago Air Canada (including rouge) ain't done with YVR expansion yet. Don't forget the AC investor day map does have BKK and SIN on it. No question AC is looking deep into the feasibility of such a route...

Wouldn't that be awesome AC, TG, SQ.....

On the down side, the cap on Chinese Airlines frequencies wasn't raised. There was a shuffle but no increases. We still might be able to score Hainan to TSN but that's pretty much it. There won't be any frequencies left for MU to start Xi'an. CZ to MEX is (almost) a certainty so there will be 9 weekly to CAN.
Note the cap includes cargo flights.

trofirhen
Aug 19, 2016, 12:40 AM
Do you think there is any possibility of AF making a winter season run to PPT from YVR? Funnily enough, going through YVR is only about 50 miles longer than through LAX, which is right on the great circle route.
Vancouver is really becoming a sovereign Pacific-Asia airport, outdone only by LAX and SFO,
with the destinations it has, and those upcoming !

casper
Aug 19, 2016, 1:00 AM
It's all pretty exciting.

Like I said about a month ago Air Canada (including rouge) ain't done with YVR expansion yet. Don't forget the AC investor day map does have BKK and SIN on it. No question AC is looking deep into the feasibility of such a route...

Wouldn't that be awesome AC, TG, SQ.....

On the down side, the cap on Chinese Airlines frequencies wasn't raised. There was a shuffle but no increases. We still might be able to score Hainan to TSN but that's pretty much it. There won't be any frequencies left for MU to start Xi'an. CZ to MEX is (almost) a certainty so there will be 9 weekly to CAN.
Note the cap includes cargo flights.

Usually the rights extended to one country is symmetric with the rights extended to the other country. That would mean that Air Canada (or even WestJet) should have access to frequencies and destinations they are not using.

Johnny Aussie
Aug 19, 2016, 1:24 AM
Usually the rights extended to one country is symmetric with the rights extended to the other country. That would mean that Air Canada (or even WestJet) should have access to frequencies and destinations they are not using.

Absolutely ... Each country is entitled to 76 frequencies per week.

AC is way under utilising the Canadian side!

nname
Aug 19, 2016, 1:28 AM
On the down side, the cap on Chinese Airlines frequencies wasn't raised. There was a shuffle but no increases. We still might be able to score Hainan to TSN but that's pretty much it. There won't be any frequencies left for MU to start Xi'an. CZ to MEX is (almost) a certainty so there will be 9 weekly to CAN.
Note the cap includes cargo flights.

And Sichuan to CGO?

Something MU might be able to do is to move the Kunming route to KMG-XIY-YVR, and put 77W on the remaining 11x weekly PVG-YVR route.... or is that not allowed?

KMG-XIY-YVR is a much shorter routing than KMG-PVG-YVR too...

Johnny Aussie
Aug 19, 2016, 1:39 AM
And Sichuan to CGO?

Something MU might be able to do is to move the Kunming route to KMG-XIY-YVR, and put 77W on the remaining 11x weekly PVG-YVR route.... or is that not allowed?

KMG-XIY-YVR is a much shorter routing than KMG-PVG-YVR too...

Sichuan is capped at 3pw so any flights to CGO would have to come at the expense of SHE.

The MU routing is definitely allowed under your plan.

And it is also very possible we may see the 748 on YVR-PEK in lieu of lesser frequencies.

The cap on Chinese flights also affects the whole of Canada so very little in the way of possible new routes or added frequencies on existing routes without shuffling around current routes. It's all about frequencies and not seats.

nname
Aug 19, 2016, 1:52 AM
Sichuan is capped at 3pw so any flights to CGO would have to come at the expense of SHE.

I remember Sichuan ran 4x weekly CTU-SHE-YVR a few summers ago. Maybe they are alloted to 4x weekly instead of 3x, so they could give 2x weekly to each route?

There was a bulletin a while ago that CAAC will start to penalize airlines that were granted frequencies but does not start the route and use at least 65% of it in any 4 continuous weeks. It makes sense if Sichuan is indeed granted 4x weekly, as they would now either have to run at least 3x weekly year-round, give up that 1x weekly to a competitor, or reassign and use it on another route...

From the Chinese media, the government officials of Zhengzhou had hinted for the route since early 2015 and even visited here a couple of times... I'd say the route is quite likely even at the expense of SHE

Johnny Aussie
Aug 19, 2016, 3:31 AM
I remember Sichuan ran 4x weekly CTU-SHE-YVR a few summers ago. Maybe they are alloted to 4x weekly instead of 3x, so they could give 2x weekly to each route?

There was a bulletin a while ago that CAAC will start to penalize airlines that were granted frequencies but does not start the route and use at least 65% of it in any 4 continuous weeks. It makes sense if Sichuan is indeed granted 4x weekly, as they would now either have to run at least 3x weekly year-round, give up that 1x weekly to a competitor, or reassign and use it on another route...

From the Chinese media, the government officials of Zhengzhou had hinted for the route since early 2015 and even visited here a couple of times... I'd say the route is quite likely even at the expense of SHE

Yes, Sichuan did run 4 weekly for a very short period. That was back when the allotted frequencies were not fully utilised. Fast forward to 2016 and the demand has greatly outstripped the supply on the Chinese side.

The latest allotment shuffle comes into effect in October. No additional frequencies but there was some shift around between carriers. For Beijing Capital to get into YVR required the shuffle.
What sucks though is the allotment cap includes cargo frequencies.

I have no idea when the next round of talks will take place.

Johnny Aussie
Aug 19, 2016, 11:47 PM
From August 2016 YVR AirMail.

http://www.yvr.ca/en/blog/craigs-corner-team-yvr

A bit of a what-goes-in to route development talk and some of the recent achievements.

By Craig Richmond, CEO of VAA.

trofirhen
Aug 20, 2016, 12:06 AM
From August 2016 YVR AirMail.

http://www.yvr.ca/en/blog/craigs-corner-team-yvr

A bit of a what-goes-in to route development talk and some of the recent achievements.

By Craig Richmond, CEO of VAA.
Wow, with such a surge (20%) in Latin American visitors via Aeromexico (and AC), I'd love to one day see regular flights to Guadalajara and maybe Monterrey.
For the record, Volaris flies Seattle-Guadalajara. Though (from Wikipedia) they appear not to have a regular flight to Mexico City, whereas YVR does. Hm (?)

Johnny Aussie
Aug 20, 2016, 12:11 AM
Wow, with such a surge (20%) in Latin American visitors via Aeromexico (and AC), I'd love to one day see regular flights to Guadalajara and maybe Monterrey.
For the record, Volaris flies Seattle-Guadalajara. Though (from Wikipedia) they appear not to have a regular flight to Mexico City, whereas YVR does. Hm (?)

Mexicana did fly to both GDL and MTY back in MX's heyday. Both were a few flights per week that continued on to MEX. That was in addition to the nonstop flights to MEX. I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities for more service to Mexico of the non-resort variety too.

LeftCoaster
Aug 22, 2016, 8:47 PM
It's all pretty exciting.

Like I said about a month ago Air Canada (including rouge) ain't done with YVR expansion yet. Don't forget the AC investor day map does have BKK and SIN on it. No question AC is looking deep into the feasibility of such a route...

Wouldn't that be awesome AC, TG, SQ.....


Well unless I have remembered incorrectly the BKK was actually to Toronto, which makes limited sense.

On the down side, the cap on Chinese Airlines frequencies wasn't raised. There was a shuffle but no increases. We still might be able to score Hainan to TSN but that's pretty much it. There won't be any frequencies left for MU to start Xi'an. CZ to MEX is (almost) a certainty so there will be 9 weekly to CAN.
Note the cap includes cargo flights.

That's incredibly disappointing. Given the trade growth between the two I just can't imagine why they wouldn't be expanding the frequencies. Well Air Canada better jump on it then and fill in the capacity voids.

I guess it does mean there will be a bit more room for non-Chinese Asian growth like Singapore or Asiana, as they will be able to pull some of the growth the Chinese airlines can't fill.

This sounds like a big win for airports like SEA or SFO though, as Chinese carriers will have no choice but to go there.

trofirhen
Aug 22, 2016, 9:30 PM
Well unless I have remembered incorrectly the BKK was actually to Toronto, which makes limited sense.

Even if AC is planning YYZ - BKK, I understand Thai wants BKK-YVR abd BKK-SEA, which ought to even things out. Also, wasn't AC talking about YVR-SIN, (or YVR-SIN-BKK),
in which event there'd be no "imbalance," or am I wrong on that?

nname
Aug 22, 2016, 10:14 PM
This sounds like a big win for airports like SEA or SFO though, as Chinese carriers will have no choice but to go there.

There is no frequency left for China-US either. Basically US only allowed 28x weekly of direct flight from secondary Chinese city to US, and it had been recently reallocated as follows:

5x Xiamen - LAX
4x Shenzhen - LAX
3x Chengdu - Nanjing - LAX
3x Chengdu - Hangzhou - LAX (will start with 2x weekly)
3x Chengdu - Jinan - LAX (will start with 2x weekly)

3x Kunming - Qingdao - SFO

4x Xiamen - Shenzhen - SEA (will start with 3x weekly)

3x Fuzhou - JFK

So other than LAX, every city is only getting 1 route each.

LeftCoaster
Aug 22, 2016, 11:02 PM
Hmm interesting, do you know if there is any momentum to add more capacity on the US-China bilateral?

If the US is at capacity it almost makes it more appealing to boost the Canadian as it would allow us to take some capacity that would otherwise be bound for those markets.

Either way incredibly frustrating that more capacity was not added, since clearly the demand is there.

mezzanine
Aug 23, 2016, 4:56 AM
Well unless I have remembered incorrectly the BKK was actually to Toronto, which makes limited sense.


On paper a non-stop wouldn't make sense. the east coast of australia is closer to canada than SE asia with a good premium market but AC runs the non-stop from YVR, not YYZ. from SE asia, YYZ is ~ 2000 km further than YVR if it goes TPAC which would make for a long-ass flight.

Unless AC is thinking of a 5th freedom stop somewhere from YYZ to SE asia.

nname
Aug 23, 2016, 5:15 AM
Hmm interesting, do you know if there is any momentum to add more capacity on the US-China bilateral?

The capacity for primary cities had been used up on the US side but still a few weekly left on the Chinese side, so the US may want to negotiate more capacity. In fact, both AA and DL wants to start daily LAX-PEK a while ago, but at that time there was only 7x weekly left on the US side.

The 28x weekly to secondary cities is all used up on the Chinese side but is hardly been used by the US.

There is an interesting article in Chinese (http://news.carnoc.com/list/362/362857.html) that have a section about the upcoming CAN-YVR-MEX route. Here are some keys from the article:
The route had now been delayed till Apr 2017
The China-Canada bilateral allows 76 weekly flights by each side - 15 weekly is alloted to CZ
Canada so far had not allow passenger to travel without visa for CAN-MEX. However, the last talk was in June, before the visa-free agreement between Canada and Mexico occurred later that month


I wonder if that 15x weekly for CZ is a typo... CZ currently only used 10x for YVR and YYZ... so there should be 5x weekly leftover??

Johnny Aussie
Aug 23, 2016, 5:50 AM
I wonder if that 15x weekly for CZ is a typo... CZ currently only used 10x for YVR and YYZ... so there should be 5x weekly leftover??

The 15x week is correct. Remember the allotment includes cargo flights:

7x CAN-YVR-CAN
3x YVR-PVG (cargo)
3x CAN-YYZ-CAN
2x CAN-YVR-MEX-YVR-CAN

LeftCoaster
Aug 23, 2016, 7:08 PM
I wonder if there isn't a change in the allotments some of those cargo flights go passenger. Sending a 777 still holds a good chunk of cargo and could allow for some high yielding PAX.

Either way I really hope they add some more capacity, AC doesn't seem to want to fully utilize their China capacity so might as well let someone else fly the routes.

LeftCoaster
Aug 23, 2016, 7:19 PM
On paper a non-stop wouldn't make sense. the east coast of australia is closer to canada than SE asia with a good premium market but AC runs the non-stop from YVR, not YYZ. from SE asia, YYZ is ~ 2000 km further than YVR if it goes TPAC which would make for a long-ass flight.

Unless AC is thinking of a 5th freedom stop somewhere from YYZ to SE asia.

So I was looking into this a bit and hand't really realized how far it is to SIN from YVR. Air Canada doesn't even have a plane that could make it. Lends some credibility to the YVR-BKK-SIN route, which would just be within the range of a 787-9. YYZ is just flat out, even Singapore Airlines' new A359 ultra long range version can't even come close to doing it. It can do the YVR route though, in fact their standard 359 can do it...

So that got me thinking about SG's fleet. They have ordered 67 A359s and 30 B787-10s to replace 23 B772s and 28 A333s.

That's a net of 46 additional long haul frames with similar seating capacity and much longer range. That's a ton of growth.

So where are all those new frames going to fly?

Between local carriers and the ME3 the Europe to SE Asia/Australia runs are highly competitive and very well served. That really leaves Singapore with Asia and the Americas to deploy all this new metal. Given the sorry state of South American aviation today I think that really leaves East Asia and North America. Given that and all the new planes SG is going to have I would be shocked if in the next few years they didn't start flying to YVR again.

Gordon
Aug 23, 2016, 8:23 PM
would any plane that can do YvR Syd nonstop not be able to do the yvr sin
toute

LeftCoaster
Aug 23, 2016, 8:27 PM
Damn you're totally right, I forgot about Air Canada's 777LR, I was only thinking about their 787s and 773s.

Ya the 777LR will do any of the above.

My point still stands about all SGs extra planes though :)

trofirhen
Aug 23, 2016, 9:38 PM
On paper a non-stop wouldn't make sense. the east coast of australia is closer to canada than SE asia with a good premium market but AC runs the non-stop from YVR, not YYZ. from SE asia, YYZ is ~ 2000 km further than YVR if it goes TPAC which would make for a long-ass flight.

Unless AC is thinking of a 5th freedom stop somewhere from YYZ to SE asia.
* Where, in your opinion, might that be? Tokyo seems to make sense to me, being relatively northeastward compared to others (polar route) but I'm probably wrong.

So I was looking into this a bit / ..... come close to doing it. It can do the YVR route though, in fact their standard 359 can do it...

So that got me thinking about SG's fleet. They have ordered 67 A359s and 30 B787-10s to replace 23 B772s and 28 A333s.

That's a net of 46 additional long haul frames with similar seating capacity and much longer range. That's a ton of growth.

So where are all those new frames going to fly?

Between local carriers and the ME3 the Europe to SE Asia/Australia runs are highly competitive and very well served. ........ I think that really leaves East Asia and North America. Given that and all the new planes SG is going to have I would be shocked if in the next few years they didn't start flying to YVR again.
Can you make a rough estimation of about how many years for that? Also, when / if do you think YVR will get BKK / SIN on Air Canada? Thanks:)

LeftCoaster
Aug 23, 2016, 10:52 PM
Sichuan Airlines had applied for 2x weekly Chengdu-Zhengzhou-Vancouver starting October. Some of the frequency will come from reducing service on the Chengdu-Shenyang-Vancouver route. Maybe they would go for 2x weekly each?

Sounds like the Vancouver Sun doesn't read this forum, or they would have had an airline to speculate on:



Canada-China e-commerce conference features new Vancouver flight announcement

The biggest announcement at a Vancouver conference about using e-commerce to bypass the challenges of cross-border trade was not about that subject, but a new direct air link.

Speaking at the inaugural Canada China Trade Conference at the Vancouver Convention Centre on Tuesday, a senior Chinese official announced the launch this fall of a new direct flight between Vancouver and Zhengzhou, a city Beijing is trying to mould into a trade hub.

“According to our airport officials, before the end of this year, a direct route from Zhengzhou to Vancouver will be established,” said Zhang Yanming, the administrative committee chief of Zhengzhou’s new airport-economic zone, in a video message at the conference. “When that happens, it will be even easier for everyone here to do business in Zhengzhou.”

Zhengzhou city representatives did not say which airline will operate the twice a week service that starts on Nov. 11. Earlier this month, Beijing Capital Airlines said it will start flying between Vancouver and Hangzhou on Dec. 30, becoming the sixth Mainland Chinese carrier to enter YVR.

Zhang said the direct flight to the 415-square-kilometre airport economic zone is partly about e-commerce. The zone is home to a Foxconn factory that makes a major portion of the world’s Apple iPhones. Zhang said flights to the zone, located centrally in the Chinese market, would allow B.C. companies engaged in e-commerce the most direct access to get their products into China.
http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/canada-china-e-commerce-conference-features-new-vancouver-flight-announcement


Either way some more smoke to add to this fire. Hopefully it's 2x PW for both Zengzhou and Shenyang.

Cage
Aug 23, 2016, 11:15 PM
* Where, in your opinion, might that be? Tokyo seems to make sense to me, being relatively northeastward compared to others (polar route) but I'm probably wrong.

Can you make a rough estimation of about how many years for that? Also, when / if do you think YVR will get BKK / SIN on Air Canada? Thanks:)

(1) Fifth freedom traffic would be best handled through ICN. The primary issue with Japan is that they don't want upper level freedom traffic to hinder their local airlines JAL and ANA. Primary witness is the extended time it took for USA to get daytime access to HND. The wait was primarily due to UA and DL hubs at NRT. UA solved their issue by beefing up SFO and DL created SEA as their Asian hub of choice. Additionally UA and ANA have teamed up in comprehensive JV as does AA and JAL. The Koreans are not as picky about foreign airlines setting up hub operations in their territory.

(2) I can see SIN on 3-4 times per week nonstop basis out of YVR with the 789 or 77L. 3-4 times per week would only require one aircraft whereas any further frequency would require a second aircraft.

I don't see BKK working out unless AC runs out of places to send the 789. Yield being the biggest impediment for the route.

trofirhen
Aug 23, 2016, 11:34 PM
(1) Fifth freedom traffic would be best handled through ICN. The primary issue with Japan is that they don't want upper level freedom traffic to hinder their local airlines JAL and ANA. Primary witness is the extended time it took for USA to get daytime access to HND. The wait was primarily due to UA and DL hubs at NRT. UA solved their issue by beefing up SFO and DL created SEA as their Asian hub of choice. Additionally UA and ANA have teamed up in comprehensive JV as does AA and JAL. The Koreans are not as picky about foreign airlines setting up hub operations in their territory.

(2) I can see SIN on 3-4 times per week nonstop basis out of YVR with the 789 or 77L. 3-4 times per week would only require one aircraft whereas any further frequency would require a second aircraft.

I don't see BKK working out unless AC runs out of places to send the 789. Yield being the biggest impediment for the route.

Thanks Cage, I appreciate the response. One remaining question, if I may, though. In what timeframe can you imagine YVR-SIN; like in how many years from now?

Also, As it seems Thai wants to fly BKK-YVR and BKK-SEA, I guess that would be sufficient, hence the no-go by AC.

But when is all this likely to begin, do you think.

casper
Aug 24, 2016, 12:32 AM
(1) Fifth freedom traffic would be best handled through ICN. The primary issue with Japan is that they don't want upper level freedom traffic to hinder their local airlines JAL and ANA. Primary witness is the extended time it took for USA to get daytime access to HND. The wait was primarily due to UA and DL hubs at NRT. UA solved their issue by beefing up SFO and DL created SEA as their Asian hub of choice. Additionally UA and ANA have teamed up in comprehensive JV as does AA and JAL. The Koreans are not as picky about foreign airlines setting up hub operations in their territory.

(2) I can see SIN on 3-4 times per week nonstop basis out of YVR with the 789 or 77L. 3-4 times per week would only require one aircraft whereas any further frequency would require a second aircraft.

I don't see BKK working out unless AC runs out of places to send the 789. Yield being the biggest impediment for the route.

Perhaps going in the other direction....

In years past I thought it was YVR-LHR-(somewhere in India)-SIN Basically doing it as a tag on to Heathrow flight. That would require more Heathrow slots. Probably not likely.

AC has also tried to service India with Switzerland. Less issues with slots, but who knows.

Johnny Aussie
Aug 24, 2016, 2:43 AM
Either way some more smoke to add to this fire. Hopefully it's 2x PW for both Zengzhou and Shenyang.

Sichuan has been allocated only three flights per week in the new allotment shuffle so unfortunately that won't work.

No kidding though, there is very little in the way of additional flying that will be able to happen on the cap of 76 flights per week. And from what I have heard the cap may be in place for a few years. Who knows!? So not only is this a hindrance to YVR but any other city in Canada hoping to land new routes to China with Chinese carriers. The only unused frequencies available are Hainan with only two left. Otheriwse, if there are to be any frequency increases or new routes they will have to come at the expense of current routes which I hear is somewhat potentially possibly sort of likely maybe (how's that for vague!)

I'm going to put on my former auditors hat and word this as vaguely as possible.... but I understand that China asked for a significant increase in frequencies per week but were denied by the lobbying and objection by another entity. Therefore, the cap at 76 remains. And it may be a couple of years or more until this is negotiated again.

Cage
Aug 24, 2016, 3:00 AM
Perhaps going in the other direction....

In years past I thought it was YVR-LHR-(somewhere in India)-SIN Basically doing it as a tag on to Heathrow flight. That would require more Heathrow slots. Probably not likely.

AC has also tried to service India with Switzerland. Less issues with slots, but who knows.

(1) The late 80s routing was YVR-LHR-BOM-SIN on either 742 or L1011-500 metal by original AC. The route was a big disappointment as there was no local traffic rights on BOM-SIN.

A second India attempt at YYZ-DEL was made by AC using 345s or 343s, but this was uneconomical due to high fuel costs.

A third India attempt was 763 equipment YYZ-ZRH-DEL.

(2) It is doubtful that AC would ever do another Canada-Europe-India route again. Any AC pax desiring this routing can connect through FRA on LH. The AC/UA/LH group TransAt JV includes provisions for beyond revenue sharing on joint tickets, which is a long winded way of saying AC gets a cut of the FRA-India revenue from LH.

nname
Aug 24, 2016, 3:17 AM
Sichuan has been allocated only three flights per week in the new allotment shuffle so unfortunately that won't work.

No kidding though, there is very little in the way of additional flying that will be able to happen on the cap of 76 flights per week. And from what I have heard the cap may be in place for a few years. Who knows!? So not only is this a hindrance to YVR but any other city in Canada hoping to land new routes to China with Chinese carriers. The only unused frequencies available are Hainan with only two left. Otheriwse, if there are to be any frequency increases or new routes they will have to come at the expense of current routes which I hear is somewhat potentially possibly sort of likely maybe (how's that for vague!)

I'm going to put on my former auditors hat and word this as vaguely as possible.... but I understand that China asked for a significant increase in frequencies per week but were denied by the lobbying and objection by another entity. Therefore, the cap at 76 remains. And it may be a couple of years or more until this is negotiated again.

Maybe they can make it 1.5 weekly each - a flight every 4-5 days, or one of the weekly alternates between CGO and SHE :D

So let me see...

Air China (20x weekly)
14x PEK-YVR
2x PEK-YUL
1x PEK-YUL-HAV
3x Carge to YEG

China Eastern (21x weekly)
11x PVG-YVR
7x PVG-YYZ
3x KMG-PVG-YVR

China Southern (15x weekly)
7x CAN-YVR
3x CAN-YYZ
3x Cargo to YVR
2x unallocated

Hainan (12x weekly)
7x PEK-YYZ
3x PEK-YYC
2x unallocated

Sichuan (3x weekly)
3x CTU-SHE-YVR

Xiamen (3x weekly)
3x XMN-YVR

Beijing Capital (3x weekly)
3x HGH-TAO-YVR

Total 77x weekly

Hmm.. where did I make a mistake...?

Hourglass
Aug 24, 2016, 3:21 AM
I understand that China asked for a significant increase in frequencies per week but were denied by the lobbying and objection by another entity. Therefore, the cap at 76 remains. And it may be a couple of years or more until this is negotiated again.

Interesting! I wonder who that 'other entity' might be... I'm guessing it might be a certain airline with a maple leaf decorating its tails? :haha:

More seriously, though, with the rapid expansion of Chinese airlines to YVR (and internationally), a bit of time to consolidate might not be a bad thing. I'd be interested to know average load factors on YVR-China routes outside the tier I cities (PEK, PVG, CAN).

nname
Aug 24, 2016, 3:27 AM
Interesting! I wonder who that 'other entity' might be... I'm guessing it might be a certain airline with a maple leaf decorating its tails? :haha:

More seriously, though, with the rapid expansion of Chinese airlines to YVR (and internationally), a bit of time to consolidate might not be a bad thing. I'd be interested to know average load factors on YVR-China routes outside the tier I cities (PEK, PVG, CAN).

Or maybe it could be a good time for that 'other entity' to venture into some of the secondary Chinese market like what UA did... :D

Johnny Aussie
Aug 24, 2016, 6:47 AM
Air China (20x weekly)
14x PEK-YVR
2x PEK-YUL
1x PEK-YUL-HAV
3x Carge to YEG

China Southern (15x weekly)
7x CAN-YVR
3x CAN-YYZ
3x Cargo to YVR
2x unallocated

Hainan (12x weekly)
7x PEK-YYZ
3x PEK-YYC
2x unallocated

Total 77x weekly

Hmm.. where did I make a mistake...?

Just with Air China - 19 flights per week:
PEK-YVR will (most likely) cap at 11 per week. This will be enough to get through the slower winter/spring months. Xmas peak will have the extra 4 weekly flights added shortly (apparently). This route is potentially tipped to go 747-8 next summer in lieu of fewer frequencies.
PEK-YUL will be 4 pw with one going on to HAV.
Cargo is at 4pw but only 3 being utilised.

The 2 unallocated for CZ are confirmed for the CAN-YVR-MEX route.

The 2 unallocated by HU is still the BIG mystery. As we know they want direct YVR-TSN but a minimum of 3 per week so the possibilities here are only run 2, run more than 2 but where to get the extra frequencies? Or just not bother. With such limited options for the additional 2 per week it's a tough call. Originally the Hainan Group applied for 4 weekly on Tianjin Airlines and then later with 5 weekly on Hainan. So there is still a possibility something may be arranged for this route to launch. Apparently a decision will be made before the end of the year.

CanSpice
Aug 24, 2016, 4:07 PM
My family flew down to Disneyland last week through YVR and John Wayne Airport in Orange County. When we came back we got to walk back through the international arrivals section with the canoe and the pond. My seven-year old daughter loved it, she said it was awesome. She's only been through SNA as a sentient being (she flew through Hilo and Honolulu airports when she was 9 months old) so I'm thinking that YVR's definitely set a high bar for her. She'll probably expect every airport to be as awesome as YVR now!

Cage
Aug 24, 2016, 4:52 PM
Thanks Cage, I appreciate the response. One remaining question, if I may, though. In what timeframe can you imagine YVR-SIN; like in how many years from now?

Also, As it seems Thai wants to fly BKK-YVR and BKK-SEA, I guess that would be sufficient, hence the no-go by AC.

But when is all this likely to begin, do you think.

My thoughts on timeline for SIN would be either summer 2017 or summer 2018.

YVR-DEL is the to be determined factor. If loads and yields exceed expectations (basically the flight is profitable from day one), then AC would have the financing and business case to launch SIN. Alternately if DEL tanks and is completely unprofitable, dumping DEL and going to SIN would be a good mitigation strategy. The conundrum is what if DEL is marginally profitable but requires more time to mature. Launching SIN could sink both routes as SIN would be a good one stop into India for traffic not destined to Delhi area.

In any case, AC is only a little over 1/2 complete the 787 program, there is lots of opportunities for new routes, especially if the 333s will stay in the fleet for the foreseeable future.

LeftCoaster
Aug 24, 2016, 6:35 PM
Not a big surprise but ANA is keeping the 787-900 on the YVR-HND year round now per airlineroute and not reverting to a 787-800 like last winter.

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/268543/ana-w16-international-service-changes-as-of-24aug16/

Looks to me to be a good sign, since the ANA 789s are very premium heavy compared to the 788s so high yielding demand must be good.

LeftCoaster
Aug 24, 2016, 6:54 PM
I don't see BKK working out unless AC runs out of places to send the 789. Yield being the biggest impediment for the route.

I don't see it working on Thai either, but nothing they do seems to work so maybe YVR would work the least bad? :shrug:

Sichuan has been allocated only three flights per week in the new allotment shuffle so unfortunately that won't work.

No kidding though, there is very little in the way of additional flying that will be able to happen on the cap of 76 flights per week. And from what I have heard the cap may be in place for a few years. Who knows!? So not only is this a hindrance to YVR but any other city in Canada hoping to land new routes to China with Chinese carriers. The only unused frequencies available are Hainan with only two left. Otheriwse, if there are to be any frequency increases or new routes they will have to come at the expense of current routes which I hear is somewhat potentially possibly sort of likely maybe (how's that for vague!)

I'm going to put on my former auditors hat and word this as vaguely as possible.... but I understand that China asked for a significant increase in frequencies per week but were denied by the lobbying and objection by another entity. Therefore, the cap at 76 remains. And it may be a couple of years or more until this is negotiated again.

Well this is all incredibly frustrating. I suppose I understand AC wanting to limit Chinese carriers since their new routes to India are definitely competing with connections through PEK, PVG, CAN etc... but their protectionism is getting a bit nuts.

I guess at least we'll likely see bigger planes if not more frequencies?

My thoughts on timeline for SIN would be either summer 2017 or summer 2018.

YVR-DEL is the to be determined factor. If loads and yields exceed expectations (basically the flight is profitable from day one), then AC would have the financing and business case to launch SIN. Alternately if DEL tanks and is completely unprofitable, dumping DEL and going to SIN would be a good mitigation strategy. The conundrum is what if DEL is marginally profitable but requires more time to mature. Launching SIN could sink both routes as SIN would be a good one stop into India for traffic not destined to Delhi area.

In any case, AC is only a little over 1/2 complete the 787 program, there is lots of opportunities for new routes, especially if the 333s will stay in the fleet for the foreseeable future.

Will be very interesting to see how DEL plays out. though it's predominantly VFR traffic, 3 flights a week is not much to fill and given that it will draw from not just YVR but several other western markets I would hope they could easily fill the front of the plane given that.

mezzanine
Aug 24, 2016, 7:51 PM
I suspect there will be a lot of motivation for SE Asian airlines to establish a connection to YVR. All of the flag carriers (Singapore, Thai, Malaysian) are getting squeezed in their existing markets by the ME3 carriers on the high end and by LCCs on the low end. North American routes provide a new market relatively insulated from the ME3 and LCCs. If they have an efficient plane and get the connections right it could be sustainable, moreso than AC as they have a lower cost structure.

I think there would also be a "first-mover" advantage as well, as Thai, SQ and to some extent Vietnam airlines all are getting new and efficient planes and are in the same boat with their goals and competition.

I suspect Malaysia will not be able to fly to NA for a long, long time, if ever...

nname
Aug 24, 2016, 9:37 PM
Well this is all incredibly frustrating. I suppose I understand AC wanting to limit Chinese carriers since their new routes to India are definitely competing with connections through PEK, PVG, CAN etc... but their protectionism is getting a bit nuts.

I guess at least we'll likely see bigger planes if not more frequencies?

It may seems limiting with 76 flights/week, but China-US only allows 180 flights/week and US is a much bigger market compared to Canada.

For Canada, the 76 weekly are going mostly to YVR and YYZ, with YUL, YYC, YEG taking a small piece with one route each
For US, the 180 weekly are shared among LAX, SFO, JFK, HNL, ORD, and multiple routes going to SJC, LAS, SEA, BOS, and some more frequencies to IAH, IAD, EWR, ...

In the end, we may still be getting the bigger piece of the pie....

SFUVancouver
Aug 24, 2016, 10:07 PM
Thinking about new equipment, I'm excited to see the successor to the A340-600 "flying pencil", the A350-1000, hopefully begin calling on YVR in the years ahead. Here's the prototype sans-engines, paint, and winglets.

http://airwaysnews.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CgFK122WEAAmtY8.jpg-large.jpg

I think that the most likely candidate for bringing the A350-1000 to YVR is Cathay Pacific. It has 26 examples on order, and the 10,000+ km sector between HKG and YVR is long enough for the A350-1000 to stretch its legs. Cathay also has an order for 21 B777X-9, which has 50+ more seats than the A350 and carries more cargo (48 LD3s vs 44), and will likely have a slightly lower per-seat-mile cost but a slightly higher total aircraft cost per mile.

British Airways is another candidate, which has 18 A350-1000s on order. I could perhaps see them going double daily again with -1000s vs a single A380, but BA also has a large inventory of 58 777 classics - mostly -200s with a handful of -300s that could go double daily on the LHR-YVR route while putting their new equipment on longer haul, higher premium routes. BA also has a large stable of 38 B747-400s that they'll be replacing in the years ahead with medium and large widebodies, specifically the A350-1000, B787-9s & -10s, and likely some yet-to-be-ordered 777Xs. Or who knows, they might take the plunge and pick up a few whitetail or second hand A380s or new-build B747-8s just to keep their very large aircraft options open.

Just some thoughts.

Some news:

LATAM Airlines Brasil starting November 2016 is commencing codeshare partnership with WestJet, including a number of US – Canada routes as well as domestic Canada service.

Planned codeshare routes from 0NOV16 as follow.

LATAM Airlines Brasil operated by WestJet
Cancun – Halifax
Cancun – Moncton
Cancun – Toronto
Orlando – Calgary
Orlando – Ottawa
Orlando – Toronto
Orlando – Winnipeg
Toronto – Calgary
Toronto – Charlottetown
Toronto – Edmonton
Toronto – Halifax
Toronto – London ON
Toronto – Moncton
Toronto – Montreal
Toronto – Ottawa
Toronto – Quebec City
Toronto – Regina
Toronto – Saskatoon
Toronto – Vancouver
Toronto – Winnipeg

http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/268559/latam-brasil-westjet-plans-codeshare-service-from-nov-2016/

Johnny Aussie
Aug 24, 2016, 10:37 PM
As expected Sichuan will transfer two of the three weekly Shenyang flights to Zhengzhou.

http://www.yvr.ca/en/media/news-releases/sichuan-airlines-adds-zhengzhou-as-a-new-destination

So Tuesdays and Fridays the flights will go YVR-CGO-CTU and Sundays YVR-SHE-CTU

nname
Aug 24, 2016, 11:30 PM
:previous: just shows that the Chinese airlines are willing to fly a route even if its 1 weekly, so I think its quite possible for Hainan to start a new route with its 2 weekly. The worse case they can cut the YYZ route to 6-weekly, which they did for some weeks earlier this year.

Wonder what would the SHE-YVR traffic be after the route got downsized to a minimum... :yuck:

Klazu
Aug 25, 2016, 1:05 AM
Why doesn't Hainan drop YYC and transfer their lots to YVR?

Klazu
Aug 25, 2016, 1:15 AM
So I was looking into this a bit and hand't really realized how far it is to SIN from YVR. YYZ is just flat out, even Singapore Airlines' new A359 ultra long range version can't even come close to doing it. It can do the YVR route though, in fact their standard 359 can do it...

Vancouver is not even that far from Singapore (12,829km) compared to Toronto (15,008km). Toronto is almost as far as New York (15,344km) which Singapore Airlines used to serve with the world's longest non-stop flight. Currently the title is held by Emirates on their Dubai - Panama flight (13,875km).

Johnny Aussie
Aug 25, 2016, 7:58 AM
:previous: just shows that the Chinese airlines are willing to fly a route even if its 1 weekly, so I think its quite possible for Hainan to start a new route with its 2 weekly. The worse case they can cut the YYZ route to 6-weekly, which they did for some weeks earlier this year.

Wonder what would the SHE-YVR traffic be after the route got downsized to a minimum... :yuck:

Technically the target of the YVR route on Sichuan is actually Chengdu. So it's still three weekly to CTU just splitting up the stop over points.

It's still possible they may start with the two weekly remaining, but clearly they were after much more by wanting 4 or 5.

Why doesn't Hainan drop YYC and transfer their lots to YVR?

There are apparently a few options being tossed around and one of them is definitely a transfer of other frequencies from existing routes. Maybe they will boost YYC-PEK to 5 weekly or maybe cut some or the whole route. I doubt they would touch YYZ any more than the odd seasonal reduction as you mentioned. Maybe they will gun for YVR-TSN-CKG. Maybe they will just abandon the YVR-TSN proposal altogether. A couple of months and we will know more.

Clearly there is a huge love for YVR from Chinese carriers but as discussed that's going to be it for awhile until the cap is raised.

In any event 6 Chinese carriers flying direct to 10 mainland Chinese cities from YVR is phenomenal. I still say, 5 years ago I would never have imagined that.

Marshal
Aug 25, 2016, 8:40 AM
Vancouver is not even that far from Singapore (12,829km) compared to Toronto (15,008km). Toronto is almost as far as New York (15,344km) which Singapore Airlines used to serve with the world's longest non-stop flight. Currently the title is held by Emirates on their Dubai - Panama flight (13,875km).

All with a free bucket of tranquilizers. Where did the next generation Concorde go?

trofirhen
Aug 25, 2016, 1:56 PM
.................
In any event 6 Chinese carriers flying direct to 10 mainland Chinese cities from YVR is phenomenal. I still say, 5 years ago I would never have imagined that.
Being a "visual" thinker, I'd love to see a route map of all that !!! ;)

Johnny Aussie
Aug 26, 2016, 1:56 AM
Another day another change in China services.

CZ will now maintain the 77W year-round on YVR-CAN and the new CAN-YVR-MEX-YVR-CAN route is being delayed until next spring.

Johnny Aussie
Aug 26, 2016, 2:55 AM
Although nothing offical released... In this article published today in BIV... July 2016 was up 9.8% from July 2015.

That's would put it up to ~ 2,245,000 or over ~ 200,000 more pax in July 2016 compared to last July.

However, the article suggests July was over 2.4 million pax which would be in excess of 17% growth so I am tipping the 2.4 million is a typo.

https://www.biv.com/article/2016/8/tomorrow-likely-busiest-day-year-yvr/

Johnny Aussie
Aug 27, 2016, 12:18 AM
Posted these figures in the Canadian Airport thread... For those who don't visit that thread.... See how YVR is doing amongst its peers.

Total YTD passengers stats to June 2016

YYZ 20,833,158 +6.0% (up 1,182,423)
YVR 10,475,024 +8.1% (up 781,677)
YUL 7,867,912 +4.9% (up 370,623)
YYC 7,482,193 +1.1% (up 78,887)

YVR had the best result in June for the top 4 (up 9.7%) followed by YYZ (up 8.4%).

Although YVR leading in % terms... YVR and YYZ just motoring along!

SFUVancouver
Aug 27, 2016, 12:47 AM
Posted these figures in the Canadian Airport thread... For those who don't visit that thread.... See how YVR is doing amongst its peers.

Total YTD passengers stats to June 2016

YYZ 20,833,158 +6.0% (up 1,182,423)
YVR 10,475,024 +8.1% (up 781,677)
YUL 7,867,912 +4.9% (up 370,623)
YYC 7,482,193 +1.1% (up 78,887)

YVR had the best result in June for the top 4 (up 9.7%) followed by YYZ (up 8.4%).

Although YVR leading in % terms... YVR and YYZ just motoring along!

It's amazing to see YYZ's absolute growth is equal to the absolute growth of the next three cities combined, less about 50k.

YYZ is a monster. In a good way.

trofirhen
Aug 27, 2016, 1:08 AM
It's amazing to see YYZ's absolute growth is equal to the absolute growth of the next three cities combined, less about 50k.

YYZ is a monster. In a good way.
Agreed. I look forward to when YYZ ranks among the 10 busiest airports in the world, if that materializes.;) Meanwhile, YVR will continue to expand into a larger hub, a "Pacific sovereign."

deasine
Aug 28, 2016, 10:36 PM
Not directly related to YVR (yet?) but Turkish is cutting significantly in the US. It does not seem likely they will be announcing any new routes in light of the recent political crisis in Turkey.

trofirhen
Aug 28, 2016, 11:33 PM
Not directly related to YVR (yet?) but Turkish is cutting significantly in the US. It does not seem likely they will be announcing any new routes in light of the recent political crisis in Turkey.
Assuming the cuts preclude YVR, too, that leaves us without a Mideast connection. (Such as EK in Seattle). Could QATAR fill the gap? Any other? Or will it stay as it is for the future, IYO?

Vagabond
Aug 29, 2016, 1:35 AM
So flight LH493 (Vancouver to Frankfurt) was cancelled yesterday (Saturday), due to an unspecified mechanical issue. 360+ passengers were left in the lurch, my dad included. With some quick thinking, and a bit of minor haggling with the Lufthansa call centre agent, I managed to get dad on the late AC flight to London (and then onto his destination in India), but he was one of the lucky few. He told me that most of the stranded passengers were still waiting in line for their hotel vouchers as he re-entered security for his new flight. I did a quick check of social media today, and people are still complaining of being stuck and not being able to contact LH for re-booking, etc. So I'd imagine the route will be pretty busy over the next couple of days, clearing up the backlog.

Is such a cancellation is a regular occurrence (or is it?) I know the LH 747s used on the routes are a bit long in the tooth, so maybe that was a factor? Anyway, now starts the joys of applying for EU flight cancellation compensation!

Spork
Aug 29, 2016, 4:45 AM
So flight LH493 (Vancouver to Frankfurt) was cancelled yesterday (Saturday), due to an unspecified mechanical issue. 360+ passengers were left in the lurch, my dad included. With some quick thinking, and a bit of minor haggling with the Lufthansa call centre agent, I managed to get dad on the late AC flight to London (and then onto his destination in India), but he was one of the lucky few. He told me that most of the stranded passengers were still waiting in line for their hotel vouchers as he re-entered security for his new flight. I did a quick check of social media today, and people are still complaining of being stuck and not being able to contact LH for re-booking, etc. So I'd imagine the route will be pretty busy over the next couple of days, clearing up the backlog.

Is such a cancellation is a regular occurrence (or is it?) I know the LH 747s used on the routes are a bit long in the tooth, so maybe that was a factor? Anyway, now starts the joys of applying for EU flight cancellation compensation!

I had the same thing happen to me with BA about a year and a half ago. Took about 3 months to get my compensation. I was booked on an extra flight the next day.

Klazu
Aug 29, 2016, 4:54 AM
They should have sent an A380 instead. ;)

We had the same happen two Christmas ago. Their plane was few hours late enroute from Frankfurt, so we knew we would miss out connection in Europe. So we had a chat with their staff at YVR and we were put Air Canada Dreamliners through YVR-YYZ-CPH-HEL. We ended up being booked on a higher traveling class and gained 5x the points, for no extra charge. Five stars to Lufthansa from me. :)

casper
Aug 29, 2016, 5:09 AM
They should have sent an A380 instead. ;)

We had the same happen two Christmas ago. Their plane was few hours late enroute from Frankfurt, so we knew we would miss out connection in Europe. So we had a chat with their staff at YVR and we were put Air Canada Dreamliners through YVR-YYZ-CPH-HEL. We ended up being booked on a higher traveling class and gained 5x the points, for no extra charge. Five stars to Lufthansa from me. :)

That is pretty common with most airlines. Every time I have been moved onto another airline it is booking into full fare economy. That good because it makes the chase of an upgrade into business much higher. I have had it with United, Delta, Air Canada and Lufthansa.

As for the Lufthansa flight being cancelled. It is not that common. I was on that flight earlier in the month. I had a tight connection so pulled that flight records for the past month and worse case was a one hour delay.

Cancelling one flight is easy to deal with. Some people fly the next day others get moved on to other flights. What is much worse are things like thunder storms. I had the odd time I have been stuck in Toronto when there has been thunderstorms, everything gets delayed for hours.

Vagabond
Aug 29, 2016, 5:50 AM
That is pretty common with most airlines. Every time I have been moved onto another airline it is booking into full fare economy. That good because it makes the chase of an upgrade into business much higher. I have had it with United, Delta, Air Canada and Lufthansa.

As for the Lufthansa flight being cancelled. It is not that common. I was on that flight earlier in the month. I had a tight connection so pulled that flight records for the past month and worse case was a one hour delay.

Cancelling one flight is easy to deal with. Some people fly the next day others get moved on to other flights. What is much worse are things like thunder storms. I had the odd time I have been stuck in Toronto when there has been thunderstorms, everything gets delayed for hours.

Dad wasn't upgraded, but he was more than happy to simply be on his way. i just spoke to him, and he was one of the only people from the LH flight re-booked onto the AC flight to London (896). Apparently there were plenty of empty seats on AC 896, so it probably would have been a good option for a majority of the stranded LH passengers. Then again, LH 493 wasn't officially cancelled until 7:00 PM on Saturday, which didn't leave much time to re-book onto AC 896, which departed at 9:10 PM.

Also, the call centre agent I spoke to initially tried re-booking Dad onto LH 493 departing today (Sunday), and I had to specifically ask if her is we could re-book onto AC 896 instead. So a good reminder to always do your research about route alternatives (in the event your flight is cancelled) and not always just assume that the airline's staff will put you on the first (and best) available flight.

mezzanine
Aug 29, 2016, 7:42 AM
Nice foot work! AC 896 IIRC is AC's summer only late flight to LHR, on a dreamliner to boot! :tup:

I took LH 492 earlier this summer (FRA->YVR) and it was crowded. They were asking for volunteers to take the next day's flight for compensation. I suspect the LH 493 crowd on your dad's flight was large - handy to know that the call centre was helpful for you.

mezzanine
Aug 29, 2016, 7:49 AM
Hmmm, more hints of news to come..

http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/yvrs-asia-strategy-adds-record-number-of-chinese-airlines


Vancouver now has to six Chinese airlines flying across the Pacific, two more than its next biggest competitor in North America. But Jones said YVR’s proactive approach can be applied to other growth regions such as Southeast Asia and India.

“Because of the long distance, there’s a consideration on the part of the airlines on the profitability of the (India) route,” he said. “With the arrival of aircraft like the Boeing 787, it has brought India into play. Places like Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia and Bangkok … these are all regions that are now in play.”


Also from the article, YVRAA, workin' it...

“If you roll back to 20, 30 years ago, it was more about the airlines deciding where to fly,” said Carl Jones, Vancouver airport’s director of air service development. “But given the increase in the number of airlines and the increase in competition for tourism and trade, one of our team’s strategies is linking Asia to the Americas, and we have to take a proactive approach to working with not only current airlines on expanding, but also new airlines.”
...
The airport employs a team based in Hong Kong, which attends trade shows to meet new carriers, keeps track of new Asian airlines and their expansion plans, looks at when potential new entrants may try to enter North America, and “cold-calling” them early and often to get their business.




and unlike, say, YEG/EIAA, YVRAA pays due to AC...

There’s another crucial part to the equation: Air Canada. YVR notes that Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle each has a major U.S. carrier currently flying to China (American, United and Delta, respectively). For YVR to compete, it needs not only the commitment of new airlines, but the continued support of the major local carrier.

“We look at where the new market opportunities are available, and also what Air Canada’s plans are,” Jones said. “It makes sense to work together. A strong Air Canada and a strong hub here is in our best interest.”

trofirhen
Aug 29, 2016, 11:09 AM
...Calin Rovinescu expressed the need for a strong Air Canada hub at Vancouver. Given the company's past record of more less making YYZ the only major hub raised some cynicism.
Of YYZ is, and should be THE major Air Canada hub, but finally, it seems, YVR has been chosen as well as a major hub; not a global hub like YYZ, but a major Asia, Oceania hub for sure.
If YVR continues to proactively attract more airlines, it will indeed be one of the Big Three (LAX, SFO and YVR) transpacific hubs. Even better if it can get a couple more European destinations.
Hurray for our side. :D

LeftCoaster
Aug 29, 2016, 8:44 PM
Hmmm, more hints of news to come..

http://vancouversun.com/business/local-business/yvrs-asia-strategy-adds-record-number-of-chinese-airlines

I still wonder how they will make it work from a yield perspective. Sure YVR is the closest major airport in the Americas to SE Asia but it's still a long flight and not very lucrative from what everyone seems to say.


and unlike, say, YEG/EIAA, YVRAA pays due to AC...

Good, they should pay due, AC is by far the largest carrier at YVR and helps feed the other Star Alliance carriers that operate out of YVR.

With over 42,000 intercontinental seats per week out of YVR from Star alliance airlines I would say YVR is Air Canada's second most important hub and growing to spread the gap between themselves and YUL.

LeftCoaster
Aug 29, 2016, 9:00 PM
Got to fly out from YVR mid afternoon vs my normal evening flight so got to see a few more tails than usual. I count 10 here:


Air Canada
Air Canada Rouge
Air China
China Souther (skyteam livery)
China Eastern
JAL
Air France
Sichuan Airlines
Air Transat
United


http://i.imgur.com/AtsBIIk.jpg

Hot Rod
Aug 30, 2016, 3:26 PM
^ Like!

CareerShow
Aug 31, 2016, 4:48 AM
Just a quick question, which airlines have pilot bases in Vancouver. And why would there be a need for Air Canada crews to stay in hotels if they have a base here?

excel
Aug 31, 2016, 5:58 AM
Air Canada and WestJet both have pilot bases in Vancouver but WestJets is pretty small. The main reason flight crew will overnight in other cities in Canada is that they are on a pairing that usually consists of 3 or 4 days at a time in which they fly various routes throughout the network. This can terminate them in a Canadian city in which they are not based as they will be flying out the next day to complete their pairing.

mezzanine
Aug 31, 2016, 2:44 PM
Nice photo - I like the retro look of Air France's tail. I had to hunt to see the tip of JAL's logo.

I still wonder how they will make it work from a yield perspective. Sure YVR is the closest major airport in the Americas to SE Asia but it's still a long flight and not very lucrative from what everyone seems to say.


If you look at the fares of the LCCs in SE Asia, one could guess there are already very low yields on flying regionally already. Air Asia KUL to BKI (Kota Kinabalu, M'Asia's second largest airport) is on sale (http://www.airasia.com/ot/en/promotion.page?rr=rr2780802&icid=iah424hpmba) for $24USD. The equivalent distance is YVR to LAX. KUL to Kochi, Japan is $50, which is longer than YVR to MEX.

trofirhen
Aug 31, 2016, 2:59 PM
Nice photo - I like the retro look of Air France's tail. I had to hunt to see the tip of JAL's logo.



If you look at the fares of the LCCs in SE Asia, one could guess there are already very low yields on flying regionally already.
**Air Asia KUL to BKI (Kota Kinabalu, M'Asia's second largest airport) is on sale (http://www.airasia.com/ot/en/promotion.page?rr=rr2780802&icid=iah424hpmba) for $24USD. The equivalent distance is YVR to LAX. KUL to Kochi, Japan is $50, which is longer than YVR to MEX.
Mamma Mia !!!:???: How do they turn a profit with such low prices ?? Or do they economize in other areas? Do you know? I'm flabbergasted.

Hourglass
Aug 31, 2016, 4:19 PM
If you look at the fares of the LCCs in SE Asia, one could guess there are already very low yields on flying regionally already. Air Asia KUL to BKI (Kota Kinabalu, M'Asia's second largest airport) is on sale (http://www.airasia.com/ot/en/promotion.page?rr=rr2780802&icid=iah424hpmba) for $24USD. The equivalent distance is YVR to LAX. KUL to Kochi, Japan is $50, which is longer than YVR to MEX.

That's true but a bit misleading. Those cheap fares are generally limited to a certain number of seats and usually need to be booked far in advance. Last minute fares on AirAsia are pretty much the same price as mainline carriers. I did a short notice trip from SIN to KUL on AirAsia earlier this year and the cost was about the same as MH. I actually would've flown MH (I hate traveling through KLIA2) except that the online booking function on their web site was down.

Yield management is a science, and LCCs have to be particularly good at it to survive.

LeftCoaster
Aug 31, 2016, 5:49 PM
Anyone know what this is all about?

British Airways in October 2016 is ending codeshare partnership with WestJet, with last codeshare flight scheduled on 15OCT16. British Airways’ BA code is currently placed on 16 domestic Canada service by the latter, including the following:

British Airways operated by WestJet
Calgary – Edmonton
Calgary – Kelowna
Calgary – Regina
Calgary – Saskatoon
Calgary – Victoria
Calgary – Winnipeg
Toronto – Edmonton
Toronto – Halifax
Toronto – Kelowna
Toronto – Ottawa
Toronto – Quebec City
Toronto – Regina
Toronto – Saskatoon
Toronto – Winnipeg
Vancouver – Edmonton
Vancouver – Kelowna
http://www.routesonline.com/news/38/airlineroute/268636/british-airways-ends-westjet-codeshare-from-mid-oct-2016/

Doesn't hugely effect Vancouver, only two routes were codeshared, but it doesn't bode well for Calgary's BA flight. Cutting that much feed with the economy the way it is there can't be a good sign.

LeftCoaster
Aug 31, 2016, 5:58 PM
A slight change to SAN this winter, mainly seems to be an adjustment from Rouge closing their A319 base at YVR;

Air Canada rouge within the last few weeks has adjusted planned Vancouver – Palm Springs service for winter season. Previously reported on Airlineroute blog on 08JUN16, the airline plans to introduce Boeing 767 operation from 13NOV16, initially once a week (Day 7), and increases to twice a week from 18NOV16 (Day 57), 3 weekly from 21DEC16 (Day 357).

This route in winter 2015/16 season was served 6 times a week, with Airbus A319 aircraft.

AC1824 YVR0855 – 1146PSP 763 357
AC1825 PSP1315 – 1618YVR 763 357

The 3xPW B763 is an increase of 120 seats per week vs 6xPW A319 that flew the route last winter.

Johnny Aussie
Aug 31, 2016, 7:52 PM
A slight change to SAN this winter, mainly seems to be an adjustment from Rouge closing their A319 base at YVR;

The 3xPW B763 is an increase of 120 seats per week vs 6xPW A319 that flew the route last winter.

I mentioned this months ago :D this change is just the 3 per week starting earlier. PHX was also switched to a 763 4 x per week.

LeftCoaster
Aug 31, 2016, 7:54 PM
Ahh I thought it sounded familiar but I figured I was just confusing it with PHX or LAS. There's been a lot of Rouge 673 tweaks lately.

mezzanine
Aug 31, 2016, 7:57 PM
That's true but a bit misleading. Those cheap fares are generally limited to a certain number of seats and usually need to be booked far in advance. Last minute fares on AirAsia are pretty much the same price as mainline carriers. I did a short notice trip from SIN to KUL on AirAsia earlier this year and the cost was about the same as MH. I actually would've flown MH (I hate traveling through KLIA2) except that the online booking function on their web site was down.

Yield management is a science, and LCCs have to be particularly good at it to survive.

Those are sale prices, but that is the environment that SE carriers operate in. If you have flown in SE Asia in the past few years since the rise of the LCCs, Id' be willing to bet that you can get to a lot more places for a lot less money compared to even the European LCCs.

Travelling on short notice would be an atypical comparison as I suspect airlines realize that people who need to travel on short/immediate notice tend to be less price sensitive.

When you consider that Cathay is retrenching their flag carrier and expanding their own LCC dragonair, and with SIA's scoot airlines now flying SIN-ATH, SE Asia flying is getting more cut-throat. By comparison, flying to NA with a 787 with 10 abreast seating in Y, with no ME3s en route, charging close to NA prices would seem like easier money to me, but I'm no expert. Maybe Johnny Aussie might have more perspective on flying within SE asia/austrailia.

I suspect everyone is waiting to see how AC's delhi flight will do before they consider more flights to YVR from SE asia.

Johnny Aussie
Aug 31, 2016, 8:03 PM
Hold on to your hats!! Wow just wow!

Overall up 11.0% up 225,722 to 2,270,986
Domestic up 7.2% up 73,179 to 1,094,929
Transborder up 9.7% up 49,776 to 563,597
Asia Pacific up 18.0% up 55,309 to 362,845
Europe up 19.3% up 35,421 to 219,169
Misc Int'l up 65.4% up 12,037 to 30,446

And note total YTD is now up 8.6% and OVER 1 million more pax than 2015!

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/traffic-update_july-2016.pdf?la=en

Johnny Aussie
Aug 31, 2016, 8:04 PM
Ahh I thought it sounded familiar but I figured I was just confusing it with PHX or LAS. There's been a lot of Rouge 673 tweaks lately.

And I just realised you said SAN not PSP... :P and I still haven't been on a rouge 673 yet!

excel
Aug 31, 2016, 8:14 PM
Oh my those are crazy numbers!

LeftCoaster
Aug 31, 2016, 8:28 PM
and I still haven't been on a rouge 673 yet!

Boeing only made a few of them! it's their insideout version of the 767. :)

Hold on to your hats!! Wow just wow!

Overall up 11.0% up 225,722 to 2,270,986
Domestic up 7.2% up 73,179 to 1,094,929
Transborder up 9.7% up 49,776 to 563,597
Asia Pacific up 18.0% up 55,309 to 362,845
Europe up 19.3% up 35,421 to 219,169
Misc Int'l up 65.4% up 12,037 to 30,446

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/traffic-update_july-2016.pdf?la=en

:ahhh::ahhh::ahhh::ahhh:


And note total YTD is now up 8.6% and OVER 1 million more pax than 2015!

Kinda makes Richmond's talk about "maybe" passing 21 million a bit ridiculous considering we're already at 21.3M if we post 0 growth for the remaining months of the year.

At current pace (I know there's not as much capacity growth in later months so the rate will fall) we're on track to completely skip 21 million and end the year at 22.1 million.

osirisboy
Aug 31, 2016, 8:32 PM
So what's misc int exactly? Mexico?

LeftCoaster
Aug 31, 2016, 8:34 PM
So what's misc int exactly? Mexico?

Yep, most of the growth would be AeroMexico's new flight to Mexico city. It also includes Misc sun flying so resorts etc...

With China Southern sending a 773 to Mexico City Via YVR next year expect those abnormally high growth rates to Misc. Intl. to continue.

osirisboy
Aug 31, 2016, 9:52 PM
Cargo always seems to be declining. What's up with that?

s211
Aug 31, 2016, 10:01 PM
And how much of that passenger growth was from itinerant house shoppers?

(oops, I guess that qualifies as trolling)

Alpine
Aug 31, 2016, 10:12 PM
Some of the major trunk routes between YVR and Europe or Asia still use smaller/older aircraft. Here's what I'd like to see:

JL17/18 upgauged to 789, 77W, or a future 359/3510 (current craft: 788)

AC3/4 upgauged to 789 in the off season (current craft: 788)

LH493/492 upgauged to 74H, 388, or future 779X (current craft: 2-class 744 with overhead TVs in economy)

What do the fine users of SSP.Vancouver think the odds will be that this occurs?

trofirhen
Aug 31, 2016, 10:29 PM
And how much of that passenger growth was from itinerant house shoppers?

(oops, I guess that qualifies as trolling)
No, not trolling ... just being realistic: telling it like it is! :rolleyes:

Orcair
Aug 31, 2016, 11:05 PM
Some of the major trunk routes between YVR and Europe or Asia still use smaller/older aircraft. Here's what I'd like to see:

JL17/18 upgauged to 789, 77W, or a future 359/3510 (current craft: 788)

AC3/4 upgauged to 789 in the off season (current craft: 788)

LH493/492 upgauged to 74H, 388, or future 779X (current craft: 2-class 744 with overhead TVs in economy)

What do the fine users of SSP.Vancouver think the odds will be that this occurs?

I would love to see some JL 789s in YVR! Also, all LH 744s have AVOD in all classes (currently J, PY and Y) :) iirc it was done as of late 2014/early 2015.

LeftCoaster
Aug 31, 2016, 11:27 PM
I would be surprised if we didn't see the JAL 787-900 in YVR in the next 12-24 months. They just don't have too many of them yet.

I'll miss seeing the LH 747s but they are definitely going soon so it would be nice to see a jumbo take this route over. Would be fantastic to see FRA send a daily 380 and MUC send a daily A350-900 (year round too :) ).

Don't really care what AC does on NRT, they send every plane they have here so 788 Vs 789 on the route is just fine by me. Frankly I'd rather NRT stay 788 and open up Nagoya or Sapporo on rouge or mainline.

Hourglass
Sep 1, 2016, 12:06 AM
Those are sale prices, but that is the environment that SE carriers operate in. If you have flown in SE Asia in the past few years since the rise of the LCCs, Id' be willing to bet that you can get to a lot more places for a lot less money compared to even the European LCCs.

Travelling on short notice would be an atypical comparison as I suspect airlines realize that people who need to travel on short/immediate notice tend to be less price sensitive.

When you consider that Cathay is retrenching their flag carrier and expanding their own LCC dragonair, and with SIA's scoot airlines now flying SIN-ATH, SE Asia flying is getting more cut-throat. By comparison, flying to NA with a 787 with 10 abreast seating in Y, with no ME3s en route, charging close to NA prices would seem like easier money to me, but I'm no expert. Maybe Johnny Aussie might have more perspective on flying within SE asia/austrailia.

I suspect everyone is waiting to see how AC's delhi flight will do before they consider more flights to YVR from SE asia.

My point was simply that the AirAsia fares you cited are misleading. My Malaysian friends travel on AirAsia and complain to me all the time that the typical fares they pay are frequently not much cheaper than mainline.

Yes, LCCs such as AirAsia, Jetstar and Scoot in SE Asia has increased competition and reduced fares, but the pain traditional carriers such as SQ and more recently CX are feeling is also due to the rise of the ME3 and the fact that Chinese carriers are now offering really cheap fares to fill their planes.

Dragonair is NOT an LCC, btw.

Happy to discuss offline as I don't want to pull this off-topic.

SFUVancouver
Sep 1, 2016, 12:15 AM
Those YVR numbers are monster! Up 11% overall year over year, on a record 2015 year no less!

trofirhen
Sep 1, 2016, 12:17 AM
.......................................
I'll miss seeing the LH 747s but they are definitely going soon so it would be nice to see a jumbo take this route over. Would be fantastic to see FRA send a daily 380 and MUC send a daily A350-900 (year round too :) ).
................
Do you think we'll ever see FRA and MUC year round, (whatever aircraft they use?) That would be fantastic!!

CareerShow
Sep 1, 2016, 12:27 AM
Another question relating to Crew Bases. Is Vancouver a crew base for all Air Canada aircraft types or only a few? And what about flight attendents? And with Cathay Pacific flying between YVR and JFK do they have a crew base here as well?

Klazu
Sep 1, 2016, 12:35 AM
Of course traffic is up with LeftCoaster constantly flying in and out of YVR. I think we can safely say that this alone contributed largely to the jump. ;)

Meanwhile on Canada section... crickets. :rolleyes:

SFUVancouver
Sep 1, 2016, 12:52 AM
Hold on to your hats!! Wow just wow!

Overall up 11.0% up 225,722 to 2,270,986
Domestic up 7.2% up 73,179 to 1,094,929
Transborder up 9.7% up 49,776 to 563,597
Asia Pacific up 18.0% up 55,309 to 362,845
Europe up 19.3% up 35,421 to 219,169
Misc Int'l up 65.4% up 12,037 to 30,446

And note total YTD is now up 8.6% and OVER 1 million more pax than 2015!

http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/traffic-update_july-2016.pdf?la=en

After digging in further, as in, reading more than the first 'overall' line, I'm realizing just how huge these gains are! Wow. YVR is chugging along into truly uncharted territory. Can't wait to see the new (updated) Airport Master Plan revealed later this year. With an ostensible passenger capacity ceiling of 25 million, YVR will need to stamp on the gas to get the new facilities built if this is shaping up to be a 22 million passenger year!


After looking through the summary table (link (http://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/traffic-update_july-2016.pdf?la=en)), what I'm always interested in is "total tonnes on runway" (weight of aircraft) vs "total growth" (enplaned and deplaned passengers) vs "total arrivals and departures" (aircraft):

Total Tonnes on Runway 1,810,528[Jul '16] 1,681,328[Jul '15] 7.7%[yoy change] 10,531,520 [YTD '16] 9,908,360[YTD '15] 6.3%[yoy change]

Total Pax 2,270,986[Jul '16] 2,045,264[Jul '15] 11.0%[yoy change] 12,746,077[YTD '16] 11,738,611[YTD '15] 8.6%[yoy change]

Total arrivals and departures 32,353[Jul '16] 32,113[Jul '15] 0.7%[yoy change] 185,439[YTD '16] 185,053[YTD '15] 0.2%[yoy change]

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that year over year the number of aircraft is flat (actually a touch positive) but the number of passengers went up substantially and the aircraft tonnage went up, too, but not in lock step with passenger numbers. Therefore, the increase in passengers came through higher load factors on existing aircraft (more people in the same type of aircraft) and the up-gauging to larger, higher capacity, heavier aircraft. Since there are some entirely new routes and new carriers, this further tells us that there has been some rationalization (cuts) by carriers of the number of flights and/or routes they offer, but they are also using larger aircraft.

I think that this is a neat trend to observe and it helps explain how YVR is able to keep up with such sustained growth without a commensurate increase in the number of gates or enduring uncharacteristic congestion for departure runway slots.

mezzanine
Sep 1, 2016, 1:22 AM
My point was simply that the AirAsia fares you cited are misleading. My Malaysian friends travel on AirAsia and complain to me all the time that the typical fares they pay are frequently not much cheaper than mainline.


Yeef, not trying to mislead. I did mention it was a sale and linked to the page. If you play with some non-sale, regular routes, some (most?) of Air Asia's prices are mindboggingly low compared to NA standards.


Yes, LCCs such as AirAsia, Jetstar and Scoot in SE Asia has increased competition and reduced fares, but the pain traditional carriers such as SQ and more recently CX are feeling is also due to the rise of the ME3 and the fact that Chinese carriers are now offering really cheap fares to fill their planes.


And in all this milieu flying to NA/YVR seems more viable, at least to SE Asia carriers.


Dragonair is NOT an LCC, btw.


Fair enough. (http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com/2016/01/28/cathay-dragon-rebrand/)


Happy to discuss offline as I don't want to pull this off-topic.

My point was that YVR to SE Asia is viable, but time will tell.

teriyaki
Sep 1, 2016, 1:46 AM
I get the sentiment that fares are lower everywhere else, mostly that of Europe and SE Asia. The local competition that is here in NA and that of SE Asia and Europe is just different, and this is especially so in Canada that doesn't even have a true ULCC let alone LCC.

There was an article awhile back detailing the type of taxes and fees that one has to pay just to get in the air, even with a base fare of $0 to the airlines. Just these fees alone amount to more than the entire fare of these low cost airlines like AirAsia and EasyJet.

On the flipside, YVR enjoys some of lowest long-haul fares anywhere (especially to Asia) in North America due to the intense competition that is readily available. Having flown many roundtrips to asia in the $400-$700 in the past few years, i'm incredibly thankful that we have this many options. A simple comparison with our neighbour to the south at SEA. I have never, ever found a lower priced flight that originated in SEA vs originating in YVR on the routes that i've tried to book. Not having one single dominant carrier here that can dictate prices is our biggest asset IMO for pricing pressure.

excel
Sep 1, 2016, 3:43 AM
Another question relating to Crew Bases. Is Vancouver a crew base for all Air Canada aircraft types or only a few? And what about flight attendents? And with Cathay Pacific flying between YVR and JFK do they have a crew base here as well?

YVR is a crew base for most of AC aircraft types. But this changes with aircraft scheduling. Flight Attendants are usually type specific and are based once again in line with aircraft scheduling. Cathay used to have a YVR base but no longer do.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 1, 2016, 9:18 AM
Speaking of Cathay.

Just saw on Twitter from airlineroute.net

Effective 24 March 2017 CX will increase YVR from 14 to 17 weekly.

AND the additional flights will be on A350s.... So we have YVR's first scheduled A350 flights confirmed.

New flights:
CX856 HKG 1100 - 0755 YVR 359 246
CX855 YVR 0925 - 1345+1 HKG 359 246

The good news just keeps on rolling.

Hourglass
Sep 1, 2016, 11:21 AM
Speaking of Cathay.

Just saw on Twitter from airlineroute.net

Effective 24 March 2017 CX will increase YVR from 14 to 17 weekly.

AND the additional flights will be on A350s.... So we have YVR's first scheduled A350 flights confirmed.

New flights:
CX856 HKG 1100 - 0755 YVR 359 246
CX855 YVR 0925 - 1345+1 HKG 359 246

The good news just keeps on rolling.

Surprised it took them so long -- maybe aircraft availability?

Peak season flights during the summer are pretty much always filled to capacity, and fares (ex-HKG anyways) are really expensive -- think C$1.5-2K for a seat in Y-class.

Johnny Aussie
Sep 1, 2016, 1:17 PM
EWR: is being upgauged to daily 789s
LAX: 4th daily being added and 2 upgauging to 321s
SEA and PDX: all flights upgauged to DH4s

Last winter of course LAX and SFO were all rouge routes. This winter SFO will be 3 daily mainline 319s and LAX 2 daily 321, 1 daily 320 and 1 daily 319 all mainline.

LAS, HNL, OGG and KOA are exactly the same as last winter.

And as previously mentioned:
SAN: new daily CRA
SJC: new 2 daily CRA
ORD: new daily E90
PHX: 4 weekly 763
PSP: 3 weekly 763