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Welcome to the forum NorthStarProject. I just want to say that, personally for me, it's just a wait and see. I would certainly love to see SkyCity come to fruition. If it doesn't, then all the naysayers can say, " I told you so." Including yourself. But you definitely made a lot of claims and negative statements here. Sure wish you could make a stronger argument by substantiating your claims. Here are some examples of your own statements, "public has not heard about yet", "I was told","I assume","I know from recent discussion". All pretty vague. And then you follow up with, "I guarantee" and "This will not happen". I don't know - definitely not Simplicity's style.
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Ellis-Don and other legitimate companies have attached their names to this project, and other Fortress projects. That doesn't mean it will happen. And it certainly doesn't mean that Fortress isn't selling snake oil. We don't know the terms of the deal with Edenshaw or what the plan is. What other developer do you know that adds a "co-developer" at this stage of a development? For what reason? |
The trolls are out in FULL force today I see.
I do agree with a previous statement that these people are likely competitor developers looking to undermine this project. Classic "fight" reaction. |
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Seriously, why is everyone so bent out of shape? Leave the emotions aside and let the circumstances speak clearly.
I'm not a hater, I'm a realist; I want this to go ahead but it doesn't look great. Quote:
The WFP today mentioned that the sales team claimed to have "sold over 50%"... but the developers say they still "need" to sell a few more. WFP claimed that the 60,000 of office condos "only now have come to market", but it appears to me like that was a half-baked plan to help increase the residential sales %, which went up as a result with no extra sales. To me it seems like they're throwing darts blindfolded and hoping something sticks. Quote:
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STOP. Every time someone says something negative about Fortress you come along like someone is insulting your dad. No other Wpg developers are attracting the negative attention Fortress are, and unfortunately you points of support are easily and frequently debunked on this matter. This thing might get built, but if so, by sheer dumb luck. There is little positive credit to be given based on the process so far. Quote:
Either way: 1) I too believe and heard from several credible people that the sales figures are grossly exaggerated. It's common practice to exaggerate sales but usually doesn't matter in stronger markets... it's done to stoke further sales, but turns out that's barely happening in Winnipeg. Now it's done just to convince people it will get built and not lose investors 2) Your hockey game comparison makes no sense... you're shooting to much from the hip and some precision could help. 3) 15% return is funny. However, you praised Glasshouse a couple posts ago, now you crap on it. Small suites are the norm in every major downtown highrise market. Glasshouse has em, SkyCity has em, TNS and the Sutton place will have em, 300 Main will have em. It won't be limited to that, but they'll have em. The trend points to this direction. 4) I'm not sure anyone doubted that TNSE is a smoother operation. 5) Regarding amenities, it wouldn't be fair to to give TNS that credit. SkyCity was the first to boast of all the amenities publically from a residential perspective, and 300 Main will be the first to finish construction (should SkyCity even get built) with these amenities. Ironically, they get that credit. Quote:
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Who cares how blatantly biased North Stars is? Everyone should be trying to see THROUGH the smoke, whether his or SkyCity's... and when you observe objectively, half of North Stars comments are not off. The rest are all over the place, but there is truth in there. Lastly, regarding the anger... the only reason some here get frustrated is because of the cringe-worthy fanboyism that pops up from time to time. Some posters WANT this project more than their brain should allow, and it shows in the responses. I TOO want this project but cannot shake the reality of the circus it's become. Quote:
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Maybe he is a pro-TNSE troll. But IO can guarantee you that not a single soul at TNSE, Sutton, or Artis is worried about SkyCity as competitors. In fact, they all WANT a critical mass downtown. But even if they didn't, and life or death depended on a SkyCity/TNSE showdown, not one person at TNSE is worried. They will be done 2+ years beforehand and they and Artis will have first crack at a new market. Here come the cynical part... I talk to a lot of real estate professionals (I'm in financial services, dabbled in real estate a bit also)... a LARGE amount of the professionals I've dealt with, whether builders, developers, architects, leasing agents or realtors, a large amount of them all say "highly unlikely" when the topic of SkyCity comes up. The best I've heard is a soft maybe, but there have been more firm "no" votes than that. Again, nobody is threatened by this project and only welcomes it. The optimisim comes almost entirely from the wishful public and the sales team that feeds them. Not saying it won't happen. I WANT IT TO HAPPEN. Winnipeg needs people downtown and the tower is sexy. But for once, skyscraperpage.com, ask yourself what the roots of the optimism and skepticism are, and compare them. |
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TNS and 300 Main will be done 2 years before SkyCity at this rate, and are rental units... so their only competition is rented investor units, which won't have a tenant until much later. From a retail perspective, both are more connected to nearby office space and their own towers. The progress of skycity benefits a critical mass in Winnipeg that would only help establish Winnipeg's downtown further, something all majore DT landlords want. The only issue some have here is the disrespect for the process and the potential consumer. |
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Now that's a good frickin read. Bravo Wolf13. |
^ :tup::tup::tup:
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Entertaining 3 page read busy, busy thread. In some ways highly informative in others repetition of the same material over and over again. Have at it but please don't push it to the trolling level. Opinions may vary. Let's see what spring brings us.:)
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Exactly. Well said Sky City's success would do so much for downtown Winnipeg and for everyone involved in trying to make Winnipeg's downtown a more attractive, better place to invest and it would certainly add a lot of bodies downtown which is never a bad thing. I too want it to happen. We all do. We all should. But Wolf said it perfectly, I think, in that last sentence..."roots of optimism and skepticism...and compare.." There is reason to have skepticism for this project. Unfortunately. More reason for skepticism, based on the realities. I would love to see it go through, but until this tower is actually U/C, above grade with a crane on site, I will remain a skeptic. I pointed out why I am hopeful for them to go through in earlier posts, I wasn't even living in Winnipeg when this project was announced and i was still hopeful then too....but I can't ignore the "smoke" either. I will continue to hope for it's success because of what it would mean for downtown in the Peg, but there is genuine cause for skepticism. And that shouldn't be ignored by even the staunchest proponents. Consider how long their project in Regina has been announced, and it's been a thing there since 2009....it is now 2017!! And it's just a big hole in the ground. We have all had so many changes in our own lives from 2009 until now...thats a long time to announce a project with only a hole to show for. |
I would like to add some clarity about the Grant that was misrepresented in the free press. It is the TIF that every residential project downtown has received in the last decade. There is nothing outside the norm about it. The Artis project will also get it. True North Square got exponentially more than that.
The issue with missing the deadline is not uncommon. The two year timeframe imposed by the province isn't realistic for big projects and is even difficult for smaller projects in slow growing Winnipeg. Many developers are facing this isssue. When they say they need the TIF to be successful, this is no different than any other downtown project. They all need the TIF. Every single one. The request to get the TIF in one lump sum instead of paid out over time is completely acceptable. That was an option to any developer getting the DRDG grant. I'm not sure what will happen but the facts need to straightened about the Grant thing. |
You are correct about subsidizing for downtown development for other projects but wrong they were in need of it to complete the project.
Both glasshouse and TNSQ did not need the grant to get it done. ------ Also. The project with Fortress can not get complete without other investors and nobody wants to invest with these clowns. People that come on here that have their feelings hurt likely work for Sky City who are paid to come on here to get people interested. No intelligent investor or man/woman who wants to live downtown can take Sky City seriously. What I know from facts from inside information is that if Sky City gets down it wont be Fortress building it. Also. Fortress can not be trusted for various reasons just dig for their lawsuits. Part of their problem now is their selfish business ways have caught up to them and are trying to pull a springfield monorail to get out of it. |
I think it would be nice to just talk about the project. If it doesn't happen, whatever. This constant negativity gets annoying.
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The #1 reason why Fortress wants the grant money up front is so they take the money to pay off other dues coming from legal lawsuits and project investors. Then they will come back and say they can not get the project done until 2021 completion or 2022 and they will try to transfer funds from another project or try to find another sucker investor.
They will build up to a certain grade and then halt construction or sign off the project to another developer. This has happened so many times with awful developers. Or large companies that cease operations due to unfortunate financial cutbacks. If it happened in Las Vegas. It can happen in Winnipeg. |
Fortress is not asking for the TIF money up front. They are asking for a lump sum at the completion of the project - not in installments.
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Thanks for the kind words, folks! After I posted it I wondered "who's gonna read all that shit?"
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But you're 1000% wrong on the other projects needing the grant. We have the highest construction costs in the country (sorry everyone for that redundancy). SkyCity costs $200M and has 400 units and needs the grant. Artis is building 400 units and ALREADY has a foundation and parkade, and NEEDS the grant. TNS did NOT have a foundation and is asking the highest rents in the City's history by a LARGE margin, in a stagnant office market, and will have their apartment finished after Artis finishes theirs... and their project costs 3x as much as 300 main, 2x as much as SkyCity... THEY NEED THE GRANT MORE THAN ANYONE. Needing the grant does not imply a job not well done. It's merely a mathematical necessity to be successful. Could these projects be completed without the grant? Sure, Artis has lots of money and established infrastructure in place, and TNS has David Thomson (SkyCity wouldn't have happened, nor would Glasshouse). But TNS/300M wouldn't be SUCCESSFUL. Successful businesses don't become just that by pissing away money on expensive vanity towers. If you're saying they have the resources to pull these things off? Technically, yes... but nobody with half a brain would approve this project without the grant. Quote:
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Artis or TNS do not mind to receive the grant over time, because they're holding the investment. Condo developers recycle their cash. That's not sinister, that's how you make your money, you rinse/repeat as often as possible. Since you're not holding your property you only profit from sales, so after you build/sell a project, you need to build/sell ANOTHER otherwise you're just wasting away! The plus side is that if you're good, you can make a pile of cash. Downside? No passive income and ownership of a value-gaining asset. That's the plus side to apartments... if you have enough money to keep working AFTER you complete a project, why cash out? Let that money slowly roll in, and do it again. Artis has money to do this (although they're not in the "let's build 100 towers business") and so does TNSE (but not without Thomson/Richardson backing, who surely convinced them to do apts). Downside is you have to pay to play... you have to be able to afford to build and own the asset, not just build and sell it. So why would SkyCity (let's assume they're a reputable condo developer) wait for cash and put future earnings on hold? They have people to pay! The way I see it, you do condos until you get rich enough to do apartments. Except condo prices in Toronto and Vancouver have soared so high that it remained more profitable to keep doing condos. That's not the case in Wpg. Quote:
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it was a really hard balance to walkm trying to keep an open discussion going when ur getting personaly attacked from all sides as well... i dunno how many times i allmost banned him for the stuff in my inbox but didnt in the name of open discussion he didnt seem to see it that way and some of u wanted to hang me. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- as for fortress they are questionable theres tuns of examples in the gta of bait and switch and holes in the ground going back years we cant ignore this fact. plzz guys stop getting in a tizzy cause ur new tallest wet dream is getting bad mouthed ive personally chosen to stay neutral on it till now... but it is a fact and people need to not get their backs up when these facts are mentioned. we need to keep this pressure in the public relm something many of u don't relize is how watched the discussion is on here at the city government and in the media maybe even the province theres been policy that has been born out of the dissucions that happens here |
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now they need to finish the project by the certain date or it will be in installments. Money transferred will benefit Fortress as its a guaranteed loan and used as such with future business. The reason why this was done was to protect the city from Fortress playing games and protect the city's valuation of land. Fortress will never get the project up and running by the expected date. |
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