Who will replace Mulcair? (NDP leadership)
 

At the NDP convention today, he only got 48% support, and that forces a leadership race. It could also be a battle for the soul between the Mulcair/Layton centre-left and the NDP base which is calling for pure socialism.

Mulcair COULD run again, but would likely lose. He expects to remain as interim leader though...

Niki Ashton. She's bright and sharp as a tack.

Going left isn't going to help the NDP. They will alienate many centrist voters.

:previous:

A hard left turn by the dippers will be the kiss of death for the party.

The return of the Waffle fringe will mean they will get no more than 15 seats in the next election.

This is fantastic news for Trudeau.

I wonder what this means for the Tory leadership race. Will this be good for the Progressives in the party or the Reformers?

Like the Conservatives, they have a big challenge too.

They will never form government without the 10-15% of Canadians who tend to be far to the left. However, that won't even get them official party status in the current political setup given Trudeau's strength and the Bloc weakness. They will likely need to go to the left of Mulcair and get out of Trudeau's shadow, but not into Linda McQuaig territory. Just like the Conservatives need someone right around Harper ideologically (but calmer) - not a Tea Party type or a Red Tory.

This same principle applies to the Conservatives. They went a little too far right (especially on social issues) and alienated the general public. My guess is the next CPC leader will be a red tory.

I think all three parties are going to shift slightly left the next election.

I'd say that a hard left turn is their best shot at continued relevance, although not if they want to form a government. Should be a rather lively debate!

Agreed. Trudeau has them boxed in big time. The 10-15% of the electorate which is pure socialist would ensure the party has money and presence, but they wouldn't translate into much of anything in Parliament - not even official party status. Still, those votes are an absolute must to get the ball rolling. It's a big risk either way...

For the Conservatives, they have 25% or so of the electorate that is well to the right of the Liberals and a Red Tory leader would do nothing for. They would look silly trying to go too much into Trudeau's territory and watch a huge opening appear for a potential Reform party or western separatist party.

Here in Saskatchewan, "The birthplace of the CCF" the NDP has completely lost the rural and suburban vote and the Sask Party is making inroads into the inner city and native north as well.
I have no idea how they are going to rise from the depths, maybe through the large bubble of native kids coming up could be their base in the future? I don't know and if they follow Avie Lewis and Naomi Klein then their goose is truly cooked.

Maybe the 10-15% of the electorate that are pure socialist should start a new party of their own. (Perhaps a Canadian Labour Party?)

The New Democrats should keep aiming for the direction that Jack Layton started.

I prefer my Tories to be just slightly to the right of the Liberals. Conservative enough to have a pro business agenda and a lower tax regime, but centrist enough to serve as a reasonable alternative to the majority of the electorate once the Liberals slip up and display their typical arrogance and corruption.

I agree, the Tories should move a shade to the left and let the progressive wing of the party have a chance at the reigns of power.

:yes:

It's an unlikely, but not impossible, scenario. Same with the Conservatives, I suppose.

I fully agree. They lost by going quasi-centrist. The Liberals will always own that space, should they want it. The NDP probably doesn't have a great chance at forming government outside of a minority situation no matter what, but if they want to be relevant and increase their seat total, they need to consider the type of issues that are electrifying progressives elsewhere- Sanders, Corbyn, in particular provide a path toward increasing their support, although I doubt that support would ever equate to nearly 40% of the vote.

How good is that though if the Reform Party is resurrected, or if western separatism becomes a top issue?

This could also lead to a split between provincial wings of the NDP and the federal party. I had no idea until this convention that the provincial wings have to follow the federal party's initiatives, etc. A lot of what is in that manifesto is a complete nonstarter in AB. If the radical left takes over the party federally I would expect the AB NDP to split from them in short order. Rachel's been getting a lot better lately at dealing with reality so there's no way she'll put up with this crap if she serious about having more than one term in power.

That can't really happen. That 10-15% of Canadians is the NDP. If they drop that they're sticking to what, the <5% of Canadians who are sort of leftist centrists that dislike the Liberals for personal reasons? Plus that 10-15% of Canadians are providing most of the voters in the leadership race.

Correct, I wonder if they stayed home in the last election out of anger on Mulcair, or actually voted for Trudeau in protest?

Perhaps, but she's too young and untested.

I think to remain relevant the NDP must at least meet the Liberals on the lower-left of the quadrant, and preferably exceed them into the corner at least a bit, if not ambitiously. Otherwise they have lost their traditional raison d'etre, which was to be Canada's social democrats. Canada needs a fire-and-brimstone leftist party to keep it honest.
Offhand, I can't think of a credible candidate with the gravitas and "charisma" to pull it off, which is why I think they should have hung onto Mulcair for the interim until someone emerged. An éminence grise like Sanders or Nader would be welcome here. Broadbent, but he's simply too old.
I have heard Avi Lewis's name bandied about, and he would be an intriguing aspirant. He has the lineage, and years in the trenches as a leftist media personality, but he has no political inexperience and is apparently not biting.

Interesting thought but, as you say, no real political experience. Also a bit of a "silver spoon socialist", which might be hard for some to digest.

Poor Mulcair. He had his chance I guess.