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Architype Oct 6, 2014 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FrAnKs (Post 6758285)
Not in the next decade apparently looking at the numbers.


But that's what his projections say:

Saskatoon - 304 000 - 404 000 (+100 000)
Victoria - 360 000 - 385 000 (+25 000)

FrAnKs Oct 6, 2014 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Architype (Post 6758306)
But that's what his projections say:

Saskatoon - 304 000 - 404 000 (+100 000)
Victoria - 360 000 - 385 000 (+25 000)

Sorry my mistake.

mistercorporate Oct 7, 2014 12:13 AM

Thanks Chad for the metro projections, why not try your hand at Municipal/city projections? ;) Would be interested to see it!

Chadillaccc Oct 7, 2014 1:40 AM

Thanks. Again though, obviously I don't see these projections as set in stone, they're very rough and just made for fun. However they do use real data to come to the rough conclusions.

Making projections for municipalities outside of Alberta would be verrry tough, as Alberta is the only province with most cities doing yearly or bi-yearly censuses. The reason that CMA projections can be easy and realistic to do is because accurate estimates of their populations are released by the government on a yearly basis.

Razor Oct 7, 2014 3:21 AM

It was interesting to read about Alberta's ethnic make up..I always knew that Edmonton had a strong Eastern European presence and was the older established of the two cities., but I was oblivious of Calgary's..

Architype Oct 7, 2014 3:33 AM

I wasn't aware of the Calgary Scottish connection either, although the name Calgary is Scottish in origin. Are there any Scottish events at the Stampede?

ssiguy Oct 7, 2014 3:54 AM

Thanks Chad, those numbers look spot on.

Although Saskatoon numbers rely on a lot of maybes, they look reasonable and I think Saskatoon will overtake Victoria. Victoria gets a good number of migrants from the rest of the country due to being a beautiful city with a lovely climate but the caveat is that a disproportionate number of them are retirees. Meaning no only are they not long for this world but also they are long past their child bearing years. Saskatoon is quite the opposite with a much younger population and a large Native population who tend to have significantly higher birth rates than the general population.

Innsertnamehere Oct 7, 2014 3:54 AM

Oshawas growth rate will start to accelerate once the 407 extension is open, and I wouldn't be surprised if it is swallowed by the Toronto CMA in the next few years either. It "only" needs between 10-15 percent more people to commute to Toronto to be included, from my understanding.

ssiguy Oct 7, 2014 3:59 AM

Oshawa and Hamilton's growth rates very much depend on the growth of Toronto and where Toronto grows. I think Toronto's growth impact on Hamilton is over stated as the city itself is growing at less than 1% a year but the metro is growing faster due to faster growth in Burlington which although not part of CMA Toronto it is certainly part of the GTA as is Oshawa.

London may surprise as the city seems to finally be on the rebound economically, it has a growing food manufacturing base, and the proposed HSR to London from Toronto via Pearson and Kitchener would benefit London most of the 3 cities.

Chadillaccc Oct 7, 2014 6:15 AM

I should also note that I only took into account the StatCan estimate overcount from last year for Alberta's CMAs and not the others, as I found a formula to calculate what the actual CMA populations are for Calgary and Edmonton using the recently released yearly provincial estimates. Those two are as close as it gets to accurate, the others are likely close, but many may have slightly lower growth, and others may have slightly higher.

isaidso Oct 7, 2014 9:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere (Post 6758622)
Oshawas growth rate will start to accelerate once the 407 extension is open, and I wouldn't be surprised if it is swallowed by the Toronto CMA in the next few years either. It "only" needs between 10-15 percent more people to commute to Toronto to be included, from my understanding.

Swallowed into the CMA is the wrong terminology. Once a CMA always a CMA according to Stats Canada. They will remain separate metros but are part of one continuous urbanized area starting in Oshawa and ending in Hamilton.

isaidso Oct 7, 2014 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MolsonExport (Post 6754826)
^This is actually a very interesting synopsis.


Riverside is not really a city, certainly not in the sense that Montreal is. Is there a core (Wikipedia gives it 313K, which is less people than London, Ontario)? Is there an identity? Heck, there aren't even sports teams. Or is it just semi-densely populated corridor, a loose collection of endless suburbia? It is part of metro LA; it exists because of LA. Rather like Mississauga or Vaughn.

As Acajack alluded to, its one of those urban-suburban blobs. It in no way has the urban pedigree of Montreal or even a Saint John. It's a giant swath of suburbia. LA's growth has largely moved to the Inland Empire because it's far cheaper real estate. It isn't part of metro LA, but they do lump it together in the LA CSA in the same way that they lump Baltimore in with Washington CSA.

That said, it does have lots of sports franchises and it is bigger than the Montreal CMA.

Beedok Oct 7, 2014 3:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssiguy (Post 6758627)
Oshawa and Hamilton's growth rates very much depend on the growth of Toronto and where Toronto grows. I think Toronto's growth impact on Hamilton is over stated as the city itself is growing at less than 1% a year but the metro is growing faster due to faster growth in Burlington which although not part of CMA Toronto it is certainly part of the GTA as is Oshawa.

I'm figuring that Burlington and many other GTA regions will be filling up too much, but Hamilton has loads of ability to intensify and improving transit to Toronto. It's not going to turn Hamilton into a suburb, but added with Hamilton getting back on it's feet it should lead to strong growth.

Boris2k7 Oct 7, 2014 4:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Architype (Post 6758585)
I wasn't aware of the Calgary Scottish connection either, although the name Calgary is Scottish in origin. Are there any Scottish events at the Stampede?

Just the bagpipes in the parade AFAIK. The Calgary Police Service pipe band, the Regimental Pipes and Drums of the Calgary Highlanders (Canadian Forces Land Reserve Unit), and the RCMP pipe band march in the parade every year. In fact, pipe bands from all across Canada have shown up at various Stampede parades.

Xelebes Oct 7, 2014 4:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Architype (Post 6758585)
I wasn't aware of the Calgary Scottish connection either, although the name Calgary is Scottish in origin. Are there any Scottish events at the Stampede?

My great-grandparents moved to Calgary in 1912 from Scotland and was part of a wave of migration there. While much of the farmers in the region came from the US, Scots moved into Calgary to bring the professional services. My American ancestors were all farmers, my Scottish ancestors were all professionals and businessmen. In that end, I would hardly suspect that Calgary would bother the Stampede with Scottish events. For it to intrude, you would need a much greater need to include it - and identity among lower class would have to be prevalent. The dynamic is well portrayed in the World War I movie, Passchendaele.

kwoldtimer Oct 7, 2014 4:41 PM

It's not a real parade without pipe bands!

ScreamingViking Oct 8, 2014 2:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssiguy (Post 6758627)
Oshawa and Hamilton's growth rates very much depend on the growth of Toronto and where Toronto grows. I think Toronto's growth impact on Hamilton is over stated as the city itself is growing at less than 1% a year but the metro is growing faster due to faster growth in Burlington which although not part of CMA Toronto it is certainly part of the GTA as is Oshawa.

Burlington is pretty much built-out, barring a major change in the official plan. Future growth will need to come from intensification - that will happen, though it will generate a lot of debate about what is appropriate. But the growth rate will likely be much more modest.

Chadillaccc Oct 27, 2014 2:45 PM

So I am not sure if this is population-related, but I just read that Saskatoon is expecting 14 000 new housing starts over the next 2 years. If this is following the trend of population growth, that would mean that they're expecting what I estimate to be around 30 000 people over the next two years. Does that sound right? and if so, is that even possible? I mean, it's amazing, but that would be like 13% growth for the city in only two years.

MolsonExport Oct 27, 2014 4:41 PM

I am fairly certain that housing starts is related to population.

Beedok Oct 27, 2014 5:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc (Post 6784252)
So I am not sure if this is population-related, but I just read that Saskatoon is expecting 14 000 new housing starts over the next 2 years. If this is following the trend of population growth, that would mean that they're expecting what I estimate to be around 30 000 people over the next two years. Does that sound right? and if so, is that even possible? I mean, it's amazing, but that would be like 13% growth for the city in only two years.

They might be expecting a lot of young adults to be moving from apartments to houses, but I would guess it's mostly population growth.


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