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eemy Sep 17, 2014 6:02 PM

Statistics Canada Reports
 
These threads always seem fated for a poor end, so maybe one specifically devoted to the latest Statistics Canada reports would be more successful.

I got an e-mail from Statistics Canada letting me know about a session of Chat with an Expert occurring this Friday from 12:30pm to 1:30pm EDT where they will be discussing the latest population projections for the provinces and territories which were released today. I thought there might be a few people on this site who would be interested. Unfortunately I won't be available myself.

You can register and login for the chat here.

vaportrail Sep 17, 2014 9:30 PM

Three-region division. I think it's amazing that, even now, Ontario pretty much matches the entire Canadian west in growth.

year..West.........ON............PQ&Maritimes
2013 11,096,200 13,538,000 10,524,100
2011 10,394,228 12,851,821 10,230,639
2006 9,615,169 12,160,282 9,830,910
2001 9,074,137 11,410,046 9,523,208
1996 8,620,629 10,753,573 9,472,557
1991 7,993,930 10,084,885 9,218,045
1986 7,397,565 9,101,695 8,810,070
1981 7,045,635 8,625,107 8,672,435
1976 6,311,919 8,264,465 8,416,220
1971 5,780,179 7,703,106 8,085,026
1966 5,298,407 6,960,870 7,755,603
1961 4,845,519 6,236,092 7,156,636
1956 4,283,788 5,404,933 6,392,070
1951 3,738,080 4,597,542 5,673,807
1941 3,256,708 3,787,655 4,462,292
1931 3,061,338 3,431,683 3,883,765
1921 2,492,964 2,933,662 3,360,838
1911 1,735,620 2,527,292 2,943,731
1901 645,517 2,182,947 2,542,851
1891 349,646 2,114,321 2,369,272
1881 168,165 1,926,922 2,229,723
1871 109,475 1,620,851 1,958,931
1861 58,215 1,396,091 1,775,327
1851 60,700 952,004 1,423,593

Chadillaccc Sep 17, 2014 10:06 PM

Wow, that is striking. The difference in growth is only 15 000 between 2011 and 2013.

Edit: Actually.. what numbers are you using? Ontario was 13 264 000 in the 2011 estimate, not 12 851 000.

It seems as though you're using census data and comparing it with estimate data, the two of which are incompatible. Estimate data needs to be compared with other estimate data. So to that effect...

West -------------------Ontario
2013 - 11 097 000 ----2013 - 13 538 000
2011 - 10 701 000 ----2011 - 13 264 000

Growth - 396 000 -----Growth - 274 000


Difference = 122 000

1overcosc Sep 18, 2014 12:18 AM

There's something I've always wondered about these estimates. I imagine one of the sources of data are provincial health card records.

Legally, when you move you have to change your address on file with your provincial ministry within 6 days in Ontario (not sure about the time frame in other provinces), and if you move provinces you have to change your health card to your new province. But lots of people fail to do so. My ex, as of three months ago, has an Alberta health card even though he moved from Alberta to Ontario in 2008. I wonder if situations like this result in StatsCan putting people in the wrong province/city in these estimates.

spaceprobe Sep 18, 2014 3:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vaportrail (Post 6733668)
Three-region division. I think it's amazing that, even now, Ontario pretty much matches the entire Canadian west in growth.

year..West.........ON............PQ&Maritimes
2013 11,096,200 13,538,000 10,524,100
2011 10,394,228 12,851,821 10,230,639
2006 9,615,169 12,160,282 9,830,910
2001 9,074,137 11,410,046 9,523,208
1996 8,620,629 10,753,573 9,472,557
1991 7,993,930 10,084,885 9,218,045
1986 7,397,565 9,101,695 8,810,070
1981 7,045,635 8,625,107 8,672,435
1976 6,311,919 8,264,465 8,416,220
1971 5,780,179 7,703,106 8,085,026
1966 5,298,407 6,960,870 7,755,603
1961 4,845,519 6,236,092 7,156,636
1956 4,283,788 5,404,933 6,392,070
1951 3,738,080 4,597,542 5,673,807
1941 3,256,708 3,787,655 4,462,292
1931 3,061,338 3,431,683 3,883,765
1921 2,492,964 2,933,662 3,360,838
1911 1,735,620 2,527,292 2,943,731
1901 645,517 2,182,947 2,542,851
1891 349,646 2,114,321 2,369,272
1881 168,165 1,926,922 2,229,723
1871 109,475 1,620,851 1,958,931
1861 58,215 1,396,091 1,775,327
1851 60,700 952,004 1,423,593

interesting that even in the 1920s to 30s, Ontario has only been a bit larger than the west. plenty might have thought that the West would surpass Ontario by 1940 or 50!...but then Ontario started to grow much faster.

FrAnKs Sep 24, 2014 10:07 PM

At least I tried... I had this question for StatCan :

Feel free to translate ;

Bonjour,

j'aimerais savoir si il est possible de connaître à l'avance les nouvelles municipalités qui seront incluses dans les Agglomérations de recensement de plus de 100 000 habitants pour le prochain recensement de 2016.

Par exemple, si St-Jean-Sur-Richelieu sera maintenant incluse avec Montréal, ou encore, si Pont-Rouge viendra rejoindre Québec.

Merci !

Answer :

« Il est interdit d’émettre tout commentaire sur les changements apportés au recensement jusqu’à la journée de sa publication ».

---

:( too bad

TownGuy Sep 24, 2014 10:22 PM

What's the point of comparing Ontario to the west really? It's 4 friggin provinces against one. :shrug:

Chadillaccc Sep 24, 2014 10:58 PM

Why compare it to the east either? It's 5 provinces against 1.


Because it's for comparison's sake, because Ontario is far and away the single most populous and important province. As such, it's a good measure of the importance/relevance/impact of other regions.

TownGuy Sep 24, 2014 11:32 PM

It's not really a measure of anything though. Whats it prove if 4 provinces grow as fast as one? Why not compare all of Canada against Ontario?

The 5 vs 1 was silly too but no one was talking about it.

Innsertnamehere Sep 25, 2014 4:07 AM

Its regions more so than provinces. Canada has 4 main "regions" (with more subregions, obviously), West, English Central, French Central, and East. Comparing them is only natural as they hold more relevance at that level instead of Saskatchewan vs. Ontario or something, Saskatoon or Regina are Saskatchewans largest cities but they are on the small side in terms of cities in Ontario. Comparing those cities to Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, etc. is simply absurd as they are fundamentally on different scales.

big W Sep 25, 2014 2:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vaportrail (Post 6733668)
Three-region division. I think it's amazing that, even now, Ontario pretty much matches the entire Canadian west in growth.

year..West.........ON............PQ&Maritimes
2013 11,096,200 13,538,000 10,524,100
2011 10,394,228 12,851,821 10,230,639
2006 9,615,169 12,160,282 9,830,910
2001 9,074,137 11,410,046 9,523,208
1996 8,620,629 10,753,573 9,472,557
1991 7,993,930 10,084,885 9,218,045
1986 7,397,565 9,101,695 8,810,070
1981 7,045,635 8,625,107 8,672,435
1976 6,311,919 8,264,465 8,416,220
1971 5,780,179 7,703,106 8,085,026
1966 5,298,407 6,960,870 7,755,603
1961 4,845,519 6,236,092 7,156,636
1956 4,283,788 5,404,933 6,392,070
1951 3,738,080 4,597,542 5,673,807
1941 3,256,708 3,787,655 4,462,292
1931 3,061,338 3,431,683 3,883,765
1921 2,492,964 2,933,662 3,360,838
1911 1,735,620 2,527,292 2,943,731
1901 645,517 2,182,947 2,542,851
1891 349,646 2,114,321 2,369,272
1881 168,165 1,926,922 2,229,723
1871 109,475 1,620,851 1,958,931
1861 58,215 1,396,091 1,775,327
1851 60,700 952,004 1,423,593

These numbers really do highlight the westward movement of Canada's population. I say that not to confuse it with the move to the West but the slow steady movement westward. So growth of Ontario which slowly overtook the population of the provinces to the east and now the growth of the western provinces of Canada overtaking those east of Ontario and maybe overtaking Ontario in the future.

Acajack Sep 25, 2014 2:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vaportrail (Post 6733668)
Three-region division. I think it's amazing that, even now, Ontario pretty much matches the entire Canadian west in growth.

year..West.........ON............PQ&Maritimes
2013 11,096,200 13,538,000 10,524,100
2011 10,394,228 12,851,821 10,230,639
2006 9,615,169 12,160,282 9,830,910
2001 9,074,137 11,410,046 9,523,208
1996 8,620,629 10,753,573 9,472,557
1991 7,993,930 10,084,885 9,218,045
1986 7,397,565 9,101,695 8,810,070
1981 7,045,635 8,625,107 8,672,435
1976 6,311,919 8,264,465 8,416,220
1971 5,780,179 7,703,106 8,085,026
1966 5,298,407 6,960,870 7,755,603
1961 4,845,519 6,236,092 7,156,636
1956 4,283,788 5,404,933 6,392,070
1951 3,738,080 4,597,542 5,673,807
1941 3,256,708 3,787,655 4,462,292
1931 3,061,338 3,431,683 3,883,765
1921 2,492,964 2,933,662 3,360,838
1911 1,735,620 2,527,292 2,943,731
1901 645,517 2,182,947 2,542,851
1891 349,646 2,114,321 2,369,272
1881 168,165 1,926,922 2,229,723
1871 109,475 1,620,851 1,958,931
1861 58,215 1,396,091 1,775,327
1851 60,700 952,004 1,423,593

It's fascinating that when I was born, Quebec and Atlantic Canada (which makes no sense as a region other than as a representation of the "old Canada" for this analysis) had more population than Ontario.

I would have thought QC-Atl would have been overtaken by Ontario long before my birth.

Blader Sep 26, 2014 2:20 PM

2nd quarter results released September 26
 
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...6b-eng.htm?HPA

The provinces
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...ataTable&csid=

GreaterMontréal Sep 26, 2014 2:45 PM

+24,068 for Quebec in the last quarter. Pretty good.

Boris2k7 Sep 26, 2014 2:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vaportrail (Post 6733668)
Three-region division. I think it's amazing that, even now, Ontario pretty much matches the entire Canadian west in growth.

year..West.........ON............PQ&Maritimes
2013 11,096,200 13,538,000 10,524,100
2011 10,394,228 12,851,821 10,230,639
2006 9,615,169 12,160,282 9,830,910
2001 9,074,137 11,410,046 9,523,208
1996 8,620,629 10,753,573 9,472,557
1991 7,993,930 10,084,885 9,218,045
1986 7,397,565 9,101,695 8,810,070
1981 7,045,635 8,625,107 8,672,435
1976 6,311,919 8,264,465 8,416,220
1971 5,780,179 7,703,106 8,085,026
1966 5,298,407 6,960,870 7,755,603
1961 4,845,519 6,236,092 7,156,636
1956 4,283,788 5,404,933 6,392,070
1951 3,738,080 4,597,542 5,673,807
1941 3,256,708 3,787,655 4,462,292
1931 3,061,338 3,431,683 3,883,765
1921 2,492,964 2,933,662 3,360,838
1911 1,735,620 2,527,292 2,943,731
1901 645,517 2,182,947 2,542,851
1891 349,646 2,114,321 2,369,272
1881 168,165 1,926,922 2,229,723
1871 109,475 1,620,851 1,958,931
1861 58,215 1,396,091 1,775,327
1851 60,700 952,004 1,423,593

Man, look at those changes... from 1881 to 1911 and then from 1961 to 1981.

Chadillaccc Sep 26, 2014 3:05 PM

Quarterly growth:

Ontario - 38 553
Alberta - 35 053
Quebec - 24 068
British Columbia - 14 676
Manitoba - 5 498
Saskatchewan - 5 281

Prince Edward Island - 494
Nova Scotia - 478
Nunavut - 335
Yukon - 285

Northwest Territories - -102
Newfoundland - -117
New Brunswick - -690


Highlights: Nunavut surpasses Yukon, Alberta growth slows slightly, British Columbia growth picks up again, Nova Scotia returns to positive growth.

Drybrain Sep 26, 2014 3:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc (Post 6744635)

Highlights: Nunavut surpasses Yukon, Alberta growth slows slightly, British Columbia growth picks up again, Nova Scotia returns to positive growth.

I'm not sure what to make of PEI. Growing faster than Nova Scotia last quarter. Its population growth rate, if extrapolated to a province of Alberta's size, would be about 14,000 new people. If extrapolated to Ontario's size, it'd be about 46,000. (To put it another way, Ontario's population gain last quarter amounted to 1/348th of its population. PEI's was 1/293rd.)

Obviously the vast difference in scale means statistical anomalies are more likely in PEI's case, but the province posted consistently robust numbers like this until late 2012 (with the occasional weak quarter) when all of the Maritimes started flagging in a more serious way. Maybe they're picking up again; in any case, the numbers are so small that the the trend is lost—PEI is often among the fastest growing provinces, even as its Atlantic neighbours are the slowest.

Blader Sep 26, 2014 3:44 PM

Screenshot:

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3863/...e08eea42_b.jpg
Source:http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...ataTable&csid=
Footnotes:

1.
Postcensal estimates are based on the 2011 Census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage (CNU) (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves (IEIR)) and the components of demographic growth that occurred since that census. Intercensal estimates are produced using counts from two consecutive censuses adjusted for CNU (including (IEIR) and postcensal estimates.
2.
Quarterly population estimates: Quarter I = January 1; Quarter II = April 1; Quarter III = July 1; Quarter IV = October 1.
3.
Estimates are final intercensal and unadjusted for census net undercoverage prior to July 1, 1971. Estimates are final intercensal from July 1, 1971 to April 1, 2011, final postcensal for July 1, 2011, updated postcensal from October 1, 2011 to April 1, 2014 and preliminary postcensal from July 1, 2014.
4.
Population estimates for Northwest Territories and Nunavut are presented separately from July 1, 1991.
5.
Prior to July 1, 1991, only population estimates for Northwest Territories and Nunavut combined are available.
6.
The population growth, which is used to calculate population estimates, is comprised of the natural growth (CANSIM 53-0001), international migration (CANSIM 51-0037) and interprovincial migration (CANSIM 51-0017 and 51-0045).

Nicko999 Sep 26, 2014 4:00 PM

I expect Alberta's growth to fall to about 2% in the next 2-3 years.

LeftCoaster Sep 26, 2014 5:11 PM

Hmm, that is not an expectation shared by many.

Pretty tepid growth outside Alberta, but I don't expect that to last too long.

1overcosc Sep 26, 2014 5:17 PM

I wonder if quarterly comparisons might have issues.. I feel like people who move provinces are more likely to do so at certain times of the year (I'd imagine May and September are the peak moving months)... perhaps comparing this last quarter to the same quarter of last year (ie. Q3 2014 to Q3 2013) might be a better comparison.

Xelebes Sep 26, 2014 5:20 PM

I never thought to try and compare between quarters. It's always been by year for me.

BretttheRiderFan Sep 26, 2014 5:26 PM

Follow this account on Twitter. Superb.

https://twitter.com/stats_canada

Chadillaccc Sep 26, 2014 5:28 PM

Official yearly growth: 2013 to 2014

Ontario: 127 811
Alberta: 114 493
Quebec: 60 701
British Columbia: 48 677
Saskatchewan: 19 163
Manitoba: 16 638
Nunavut: 1 151
Prince Edward Island: 778
Yukon: 146

Northwest Territories: -218
Nova Scotia: -262
Newfoundland & Labrador: -1 217
New Brunswick: -1 721

National Growth: 386 140

kora Sep 26, 2014 5:37 PM

Total net migration, 2013/2014

Ontario: 82,228
Alberta: 81,195
BC: 37,906
Quebec: 33,251
Saskatchewan: 13,493
Manitoba: 10,955

Stats Canada
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-215-...0/t253-eng.pdf

Drybrain Sep 26, 2014 5:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1overcosc (Post 6744871)
I wonder if quarterly comparisons might have issues.. I feel like people who move provinces are more likely to do so at certain times of the year (I'd imagine May and September are the peak moving months)... perhaps comparing this last quarter to the same quarter of last year (ie. Q3 2014 to Q3 2013) might be a better comparison.

This is definitely true. If you're looking to establish trends, it's more useful to compare four consecutive Q3s or Q2s or whatever, then to compare just the past four quarters.

FrAnKs Sep 26, 2014 5:51 PM

+60 701 ... what a shame. I'm far to be satisfied.

Anything Under +82 000 and/or 1% is not good.

But it's just me, and it is just numbers :P

Chadillaccc Sep 26, 2014 6:00 PM

Same here! Anything under 412 000 (10 percent) is total garbage! Ugh ;) haha jk

The big 4 provinces are all doing fairly well I think, some obviously better than others but I see it balancing out soon. Alberta's growth is stabilizing, BC's growth is increasing, so hopefully that will create a stronger dynamic rather than the growth being ruled by two provinces.

FrAnKs Sep 26, 2014 6:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc (Post 6744943)
Same here! Anything under 412 000 (10 percent) is total garbage! Ugh ;) haha jk

:haha::haha: So proud

No, seriously, could you share just a few thousand of peoples with the Maritimes ?

1overcosc Sep 26, 2014 6:13 PM

Ontario's numbers seem to be recovering a bit. Wasn't Alberta actually first place in absolute numbers for the past couple years?

Chadillaccc Sep 26, 2014 6:18 PM

It was last year, with about 7000 more than Ontario I think. However, Statistics Canada has revised the estimates made over the past 2 years as of this morning. All of the numbers are different. It now shows that Ontario outgrew Alberta in 2012/2013 by over 20 000, which wasn't the case when I looked at the numbers yesterday.

I still have the page from yesterday up on one of my computers. I will screen shot it and compare it with the new numbers once I have access to my office computer. Regardless, the trend is showing decreasing growth in both Ontario and Alberta, as Alberta grew by 4000 less than last year, and Ontario grew by 14 000 less.

1overcosc Sep 26, 2014 6:22 PM

^ If so that's a positive sign for the entire country. It's nice to see growth spread around more as opposed to being lopped entirely in Alberta and Ontario.

Chadillaccc Sep 26, 2014 6:28 PM

I agree entirely. However, according to these new numbers, Quebec has declined significantly in growth too, by around 9 000 since last year.

That said, BC's growth has increased by over 8000, which is a great sign of recovery in that province.

Chadillaccc Sep 26, 2014 9:04 PM

Here is the discrepancy I was speaking of.


Original
https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2943/...55e60bd7_b.jpg

Revised
https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3848/...ca0730ea_b.jpg

Source: http://www.stats.gov.nl.ca/statistic...y_pop_prov.pdf

Trans Canada Sep 27, 2014 4:49 AM

Annual growth from Q3 2013 to Q3 2014

http://i.imgur.com/S9EwPup.png

Past 2 years of annual growth as measured per quarter

http://i.imgur.com/9ov1RIS.png

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 051-0005 - Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons), CANSIM (database). (accessed: 2014-09-27)
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...pattern=&csid=

Tills13 Sep 27, 2014 5:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TownGuy (Post 6742265)
It's not really a measure of anything though. Whats it prove if 4 provinces grow as fast as one? Why not compare all of Canada against Ontario?

The 5 vs 1 was silly too but no one was talking about it.

I agree. The faster you grow, typically, the faster you grow. That and you're making the numbers work for you by grouping in three provinces with small rate of growth with one province with a high rate of growth. Alberta's growing at the same rate as Ontario (by total number), and much faster (by percentage). If you want a pissing contest, don't bend the numbers to support your position.

Chadillaccc Sep 27, 2014 6:27 AM

Uh, relax buddy. I wasn't 'bending' anything. I was responding to a poster (not an Albertan poster) who posted the comparison first. He was comparing regions of the country by comparable populations; the east, Ontario, and the west. Really nothing to get all jerky over. Maybe try doing a second of research before insulting people next time. Sound good?

Also, all 4 western provinces have relatively high rates of growth, Alberta's is just exceptionally high.

blueandgoldguy Sep 27, 2014 6:40 AM

Anyone in this thread from PEI? What 's going on there that the population is growing vs. the other maritime provinces and Newfoundland?

ssiguy Sep 27, 2014 6:41 AM

All told though, Canada isn't exactly growing very quickly.

Considering that in 20 years children who wore flowers in their hair in the 60s are going to be anointed with flowers on their tombs, population growth doesn't look too rosy.

Australia is growing at 1.6% per year............ in 300 or 40 years Australia could easily overtake us in population.

blueandgoldguy Sep 27, 2014 7:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssiguy (Post 6745748)
All told though, Canada isn't exactly growing very quickly.

Considering that in 20 years children who wore flowers in their hair in the 60s are going to be anointed with flowers on their tombs, population growth doesn't look too rosy.

Australia is growing at 1.6% per year............ in 300 or 40 years Australia could easily overtake us in population.

Australia is ground zero for global warming.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...ralia-20111003

Obviously, ever country will have its challenges in the future but Australia appears especially vulnerable with its lack of farmland and clean drinking water. This will be exacerbated by the worsening floods and forest fires. And the country has limited resources with which to grow food as is, what with the desert covering a large part of the interior. I wouldn't be surprised if the population in Australia peaks in the coming decade.

Chadillaccc Sep 27, 2014 7:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trans Canada (Post 6745700)
Annual growth from Q3 2013 to Q3 2014

http://i.imgur.com/S9EwPup.png

Past 2 years of annual growth as measured per quarter

http://i.imgur.com/9ov1RIS.png

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 051-0005 - Estimates of population, Canada, provinces and territories, quarterly (persons), CANSIM (database). (accessed: 2014-09-27)
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...pattern=&csid=


Great post. I wish I was good at graphing stuff, I'd love to see a ten year graph. I did Alberta's ten year average earlier today. It's approximately 900 000 people over 10 years, with an average yearly growth of about 89 000, though there have been significant fluctuations. From as low as 53 000 (beginning of recession) to as high as 120 000 (last year).

Tills13 Sep 27, 2014 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc (Post 6745740)
Uh, relax buddy. I wasn't 'bending' anything. I was responding to a poster (not an Albertan poster) who posted the comparison first. He was comparing regions of the country by comparable populations; the east, Ontario, and the west. Really nothing to get all jerky over. Maybe try doing a second of research before insulting people next time. Sound good?

Also, all 4 western provinces have relatively high rates of growth, Alberta's is just exceptionally high.

nah, not you. the clowns shoving BC/AB/SK/MA together and comparing to Ontario to make Alberta look bad.

isaidso Sep 27, 2014 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueandgoldguy (Post 6745758)
Australia is ground zero for global warming.

Another potential factor is US emigration. Americans have never really emigrated in significant numbers to any country. There are more Canadian born in the US than their are American born in Canada despite the US having 9 times our population. If the wealth discrepancy between rich and poor in the US continues to get widen and median income in Canada continues to bolt ahead of median income in the US we might see significant US emigration to Canada for the first time ever.

1 in 10,000 Americans moving here would work out to 32,000 people. They could potentially become our #1 source nation for immigrants. 1 in 2,000 works out to 160,000 people annually. If central Canada's economy can turn around I wouldn't rule out big numbers coming from the US as the middle class look to Plan B: Canada.

eternallyme Sep 27, 2014 2:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drybrain (Post 6744669)
I'm not sure what to make of PEI. Growing faster than Nova Scotia last quarter. Its population growth rate, if extrapolated to a province of Alberta's size, would be about 14,000 new people. If extrapolated to Ontario's size, it'd be about 46,000. (To put it another way, Ontario's population gain last quarter amounted to 1/348th of its population. PEI's was 1/293rd.)

Obviously the vast difference in scale means statistical anomalies are more likely in PEI's case, but the province posted consistently robust numbers like this until late 2012 (with the occasional weak quarter) when all of the Maritimes started flagging in a more serious way. Maybe they're picking up again; in any case, the numbers are so small that the the trend is lost—PEI is often among the fastest growing provinces, even as its Atlantic neighbours are the slowest.

Rural PEI doesn't seem to be having the extreme declines of rural Nova Scotia though, perhaps due to the agricultural industry. Rural NS is probably the fastest declining region in all of Canada, with any positive growth being due to offsetting growth in Halifax. Soon most likely over 50% of Nova Scotia's population will reside in Halifax.

eternallyme Sep 27, 2014 2:47 PM

As for New Brunswick declining, that is heavily concentrated in rural areas (such as the north and northeast), offset partially by urban growth, correct?

isaidso Sep 27, 2014 3:14 PM

PEI also benefits from a successful provincially run immigration program. Rural NS hit a tipping point quite a while ago where there were so few people left of child bearing age that it was just a matter of time before the population imploded.

There are schools in rural NS that once had 500 students, but are now down below 20 kids. Once the current crop of kids finish school, the only people that will be left will be seniors. When they die these towns will disappear altogether.

someone123 Sep 27, 2014 5:39 PM

The parts of NS that have really been declining for the past 20+ years have rust belt style economies reliant on heavy industry (steel, coal, pulp mills) that have also been in decline for about the same period of time. The Sydney area has perhaps been the worst-hit if you look at where it is now compared to where it was around 1940-1970. Cape Breton county had 110,000 people in 1940 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Br...y#Demographics), back when the city of Calgary had about 90,000. People don't seem to talk about this much because it doesn't fit with the region's rural image. Rural NS in its heydey was as much a collection of towns built around industrial operations as it was a bunch of farms and fishing villages.

Kings, Colchester, and Hants counties in NS are a bit closer to PEI's agricultural economy, and they have stable or growing populations (up 1-2% during the last census period). They have the advantage of being close to the city, so some people can commute to urban jobs and others can at least easily get to the airport, hospitals, etc. Around 2/3 of the population of NS is already within an hour or so drive of the city. In the same way, most of the population of the Maritimes lives in the central part of the region that extends from central NS north to southern NB and PEI. If you were to look at the economy and demographics of this area it would be pretty average compared to Ontario or Quebec.

Chadillaccc Sep 27, 2014 6:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tills13 (Post 6745816)
nah, not you. the clowns shoving BC/AB/SK/MA together and comparing to Ontario to make Alberta look bad.

Oh haha! Sorry. I'm sure you can see why I got a little defensive there. Personal attacks against me are a daily occurrence here and mods couldn't give a shit.


To be honest though, I don't really think it makes AB look bad. It just skews the reality a bit.

For instance, over the past 10 years Alberta has grown by 890 000 people, MB has grown by about 110 000, Sask has grown by 132 000, and BC has grown by over 475 000. So while yes, Alberta contributed well over half of the west's over 1.6 million growth over the past ten years, all of the west had yearly growth averages over 10 000, and BC with nearly 50 000, and of course Alberta at around 90 000. With all four in the top four places for growth percentage over the past entire decade, it's really nothing to scoff at, but I see your point. The west average yearly long term growth is over 160 000.


Just for reference, Ontario grew by 1 290 000 during the same period with an average growth of 129 000/year.

Chadillaccc Sep 27, 2014 7:05 PM

Here is all of Canada the way I just did the West and Ontario.


Ten-Year Growth Trends

Province---------------Growth----Growth/year

Ontario ------------------- 1 290 000 - 129 000
Alberta --------------------- 890 000 - 89 000
Quebec --------------------- 680 000 - 68 000
British Columbia ----------- 480 000 - 48 000
Saskatchewan ------------- 130 000 - 13 000
Manitoba ------------------- 110 000 - 11 000
Newfoundland & Labrador - 10 000 - 1 000
Prince Edward Island -------- 9 000 - 900
Nunavut ---------------------- 7 000 - 700
New Brunswick --------------- 5 000 - 500
Yukon ------------------------- 5 000 - 500
Nova Scotia ------------------- 3 000 - 300
Northwest Territories ----------- 300 - 30

Canada ------------------ 3 600 000 - 360 000


#s rounded to the nearest 10 000, 1 000, or 100 for clarity. All numbers approximate.

Nicko999 Sep 27, 2014 8:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by isaidso (Post 6745818)
Another potential factor is US emigration. Americans have never really emigrated in significant numbers to any country. There are more Canadian born in the US than their are American born in Canada despite the US having 9 times our population. If the wealth discrepancy between rich and poor in the US continues to get widen and median income in Canada continues to bolt ahead of median income in the US we might see significant US emigration to Canada for the first time ever.

1 in 10,000 Americans moving here would work out to 32,000 people. They could potentially become our #1 source nation for immigrants. 1 in 2,000 works out to 160,000 people annually. If central Canada's economy can turn around I wouldn't rule out big numbers coming from the US as the middle class look to Plan B: Canada.

I don't see that happening in our lifetimes to be honest. The lower prices over there means Americans still have more purchasing power than us. Also the US economy has now recovered is growing at the same pace as the Canadian one.


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