Canadian Office Space Market
Steve Ladurantaye
Globe and Mail Update Published Monday, Jun. 27, 2011 9:20AM EDT Last updated Monday, Jun. 27, 2011 9:24AM EDT Canada’s office space vacancy improved in the second quarter, led by a record-setting recovery in Calgary. CB Richard Ellis said the 8.6 per cent vacancy rate improved from 9.3 per cent in the last quarter, and was at 10.1 per cent a year ago. Tenants leased 3-million square feet of space, compared to 1.2-million square feet a year ago. The report doesn’t track rents. “As a whole, the national trend for the office market is improving fundamentals, however, the performance of Calgary’s office market is absolutely staggering,” CBRE said in a statement. “Since peaking in the second quarter of 2010, Calgary’s vacancy rate has recovered at its fastest pace ever, down 630 basis points year-over-year to 9.4 per cent.” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle2076801/ |
Once The Bow comes online, those Calgary numbers will equalize. As the building is not yet in the office space count, there is a huge adjustment coming when it does get occupied, and office space shifts from older towers in the core to The Bow.
These towers will then have to seek tenants in older and less desirable properties. Tough Sell. |
I live in Regina
Our Class A office space is at like 0.5% |
The vacancy rate in St. John's for Class A office space was at 0% a few months back, with the vacancy rate for all other office space very low. I'm not sure if this has improved either bit.
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both bad situations... healthy markets are 5-7% vacant IMO
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I don't see it as possible, that The Bow could fill up with all the vacated tenants for other towers, an not one single new tower would have been in the pipes, otherwise, as a business, I would prefer new space, to beat up old office space built in the 1980's if that option was available. I don't see this materializing, there will be loads of new office space on the Calgary market once the Bow opens its doors. And it will take a long time to retrofit and upgrade existing buildings before any new tenants move in. Comon, MBA, you know the value of premium office space, and the returns on the bottom line and branding visa via setting up shop in outdated accommodations. |
I'm actually looking at a leasing report on the calgary market as we speak... I don't know what to tell you, the market is tight. Like I said, I know of at least one major office project that could move forward in the very near future.
I was as surprised as you are when I first read the report, but that is what the analyists are saying. |
Once the bow opens, I don't think that vacancy rates will go too high, maybe 12%?
It's crazy to think that there are a couple new office proposals out there and a couple DPs submitted. This city is absolutely in a league of it's own! |
Indeed it is... i am hearing multiple things going on behind the scenes.
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I think it's very likely that the second phase of Eighth Avenue Place (~700,000 sq ft) goes ahead by next year. The developer has pretty much said as much. EAP 1 went from 0% leased when it broke ground to 95% leased now - and that is 1 million square feet of space.
I could see a few other smaller ones breaking ground within 18-24 months as well, such as the one just west of the Nexen building, the "Centennial 3" building, Bow South Block and maybe City Centre. Oil is booming, if natural gas prices increase a bit, that will accelerate things a lot more. |
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Who would of thunk it? Toronto should have three 30 plus storey towers under construction by year's end. Who knows what else will join them too. The poor surface parking/vacant lots are being attacked from all sides.
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Any Honours MBA's wanna take a whack at that one? I'd be tempted to say once the old unrefurbished space comes online it will be instantly absorbed. |
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I'm thinking those office towers will need some serious retrofitting once their current tenants vacate, which will pull that space off the market anyway.
Just because I run or manage a start up doesn't mean I'll rent any old beatup space. |
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but we have the jets. |
The only remaining available space of Encana's that is being left behind is Encana Place across from the Palliser. All of other other remaining space currently occupied by Encana/Cenovus is leased (Bankers Hall, TD Canada Trust Tower, One Palliser). The opening of the Bow will have virtually zero effect on the Calgary office market. In case you were wondering...even Encana themselves who created this project to consolidate office space has leased over 300,000 sf in Telus Tower as there is not enough space in the Bow to accomodate their requirements.
EAP2 will start construction in early 2012, deals are being signed now. Most other Landlords with active development sites will be very actively marketing new projects. There are 3 'known' companies looking for 500,000+ sf right now and many many more looking for other various sizes of significance. That sub % vacancy rate will continue to drop rapidly. |
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winnipeg will just fill the space with small bushiness that will grow
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I'm just wondering if there is was a debate about weather national head quarters for corporations and government institutions be de centralize to create balance throughout the country. The benefits of it economically and politically for the country as a whole.
I think there could be an argument behind it. 3 major population centers, a number of regional centers and a 1 world city (Toronto) sorry Vancouver and Montreal. Maybe it's a case on point already. why not 10? There is so much demand in the Toronto area that it just seems a throw in the bucket for Toronto when you compare numbers with other centers. Even with Calgary's |
In an effort to save money the federal government is looking at moving employees out of private office spaces in downtown cores and placing the employees in cheaper offices outside the cores. It will be interesting to see how this will effect Class A office space.
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The Star/Globe article that was posted stated that multiple projects could break ground in Toronto shortly. 1. 16 York (almost ready to go - 3 trailers on site already) - 160 meters 2. Bremner Tower - Excavation underway - although no announcement made - 130 or 140 meters???? 3. Queen Richmond Centre - smallest of the upcoming projects - in a trendy area of the Entertainment District. 4. Waterpark Place - just announced last week ______ (Least likely of the 5 to have an announcement) is: 5. Bay Adelaide Centre (East Tower) - 196 meters |
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I like the cut of your jib. |
Flurry of office leasing activity for downtown Calgary
Record pace drives down vacancy rate By Mario Toneguzzi, Calgary Herald http://www.calgaryherald.com/busines...#ixzz1UpbxwX5d CALGARY — Calgary’s downtown office market experienced a flurry of leasing activity in the second quarter of this year, recording the largest ever level of absorption of space for a single quarter, according to commercial real estate firm Colliers International. A report by the company said the city’s downtown office tenants continue to absorb office space at an accelerated rate and those still looking for quality space in new buildings may have missed the opportunity for now. Nearly 1.2 million square feet was absorbed in the second quarter alone — the largest ever for a quarter — and that brought the year-to-date absorption to 1.5 million square feet, almost equal to that for all of 2010. The vacancy rate has dropped from 15.22 per cent on July 1, 2010 to 7.79 per cent at the end of June this year. |
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Where in that post did I post anything about Calgary or Vancouver being unsuccessful because they have high vacancy rates?
Coming down from 10% will be hard especially when the 2 million square feet inside the Bow comes online. |
haha I forgot about that little argument, boy has time been my friend on that one.
Vacancy rate of 7.9%, even lower at 6.4% for AAA space. Vacancy is actually supposed to decline when the Bow opens its doors. The only remaining large block of space left from the Bow fallout is at Encana place, 400,000sf, which considering the over 3 million sf of absorption Calgary recorded LTM Q2, is peanuts. The Calgary market right now is unbelievable, its running at levels barely seen in the largest markets, recording absorption close to levels seen in NYC, which is having a great year as well. Vacancy in 2013 is forecast to be in the low 5s on total, much lower for AAA. Expect to see at least 3 major office tower announcements over the next 12 months. |
I'm guessing Calgary will have a couple of 500 fters underway by this time next year. EAP, City Center and Centennial3 seem primed to go. Could also see Bow South block, one of the Palliser twins or Century Park go ahead. EAP2 seems most likely as the foundation is in place.
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Office space doesn't disappear into thin air, office workers don't burst into existance. When the Bow comes online, vacancy will go up. |
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Its not unreasonble to suggest that vacancy might stablize or perhaps tick up slightly, but for it to return to 10% as you suggest isnt going to happen. In a market of 38 million sf, that would suggest that over a million sf will become vacant in the next 12 months at the same time Calgary is experiencing record activity. |
There is a lot of flip flopping in Toronto. Companies are leaving old space for new towers while other companies are leasing the old space to totally retrofit over the next 12 months to eventually abandon their current locations.
This may be what Caltrane is suggesting. We know the majority of space Encana is abandoning is spoken for however, do we know the companies that will eventually occupy the space aren't going to abandon space themselves? This could take upwards of a year. By then, 500,000 or so square feet hitting the market might be a nice reprieve. |
there needs to be some extra space. having none at all is not a good thing. the faster they get some more built the better.
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And yes 500k of fresh space would be welcome news for the market, as it stands right now any substantial new supply is 2-3 years down the pipeline at the earliest. As an aside any mod want to change the title of this to a general Canadian office space thread? Might make for some good discussion and the type of news discussed would often be a precursor to office tower development. |
I don't get it!
You guys keep saying, there is so much demand in Calgary and there isn't enough space, yet vacancy is close to 10%? (And all vacated space is spoken for) Where is the logic in this please explain!/? |
There are a couple factors at play.
First is absorption rates. Calgary's Vacancy stood at 15% not even a year ago, in the past 12 months 3 million square feet has been absorbed, dropping the vacancy rate below what even the most bullish of estimates called for. Given expected high absorption the rate is expected to drop much further. Second and more to addressing your question is submarkets. While total Vacancy is roughly 8.5-9% Class A downtown vacancy is 3.7% and is the most supply constrained of any, so it will likely drop to near 0 in the next year or so. Class A vancancies are what cause new office towers, as 99% of new build downtown office space is class A (or AA or AAA depending on what the specific brokerage is calling it). If class A vacancies are low, as they are in Calgary (and Vancouver) it will spur a new round of office development. As an example Toronto's overall vacancy rate is 10.2%, identical to Vancouver, yet their class A downtown vacancy stands at 9.2%, much higher than Vancouver's 4.5%. This is why you will see relatively more office activity in Vancouver over the next 12-18 months. Over that time Toronto will absorb the class A space and will be ready for another round of new office buildings, while Vancouver will see a lull in activity as it absorbs the new space. Real estate cycles 101. |
I certainly wouldn't gamble on Vancouver seeing more office activity than Toronto over the next 18 months. There are several large RFPs out there which is reason why we are seeing a dozen projects dusted off/updated and aggressively marketed on top of the towers already under construction. There's only a few modest towers being pursued in Vancity with one or possibly two that will break ground. Toronto's market is an elephant to Vancouver's vole and a number of other Canadian submarkets that put Vancouver's 4.5% to shame.
Please don't say you were refering to a highly specific, utterly nonsensical stat such as, for example, percentage increase in inventory. You'll never top Lindsay Ontario's new subway restaurant addition. |
^^^yes. while the numbers show more demand in Vancouver, the fact is, that is just percentages. the reality is this. Toronto demand is probably 10 times what is needed in Vancouver, or even Calgary. so you will see much more new office development in Toronto as a result of this.
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And its not nonsensical for local markets, in fact its about the only metric regarding inventory that matters, and gives a true representation about the health of local markets. Anyway going forward downtown To and Van will add similar amounts of absolute office space over the next 5 years, the GTA vs Metro Van is an entirely different story however as total GTA office growth will dwarf total metro van growth. |
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That's true. I'm just so fed up by stats relative to their markets being used as a direct comparable between two separate markets. Still, I really think you're putting far too much emphasis on vacancy rate and positive absorption. I doubt Bay Street's demographic and work space architecture has ever experienced such a dramatic shift. The major growth sector has been and continue to be dead end low paying jobs. Competition is quite fierce in attracting over qualified, 20 somethings to these positions. One way is through hip, cool workplaces with exposed mechanicals and polished concrete floors in conventional class A space. Anyways, to make a story short, its cheaper to build new from scratch than to retrofit the older buildings will miles of redundant systems hidden behind ceiling tiles. The lease rates of the new developments outside of "the MINT" are easily 30% less. It's just specualtion but, I do believe Toronto will see a significant commercial building boom even as vacancy rates climb. |
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:banana: I wish we could trade the 3 - 500 footers for one 900+ footer though.:) |
sure, encanas old space is leased. but where will the companies moving into their old offices move from?! their offices will be empty. i see caltrane's point. somewhere in calgary some office is going to be sitting empty when the bow comes online. whether it is encanas old office doesn't matter.
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The space that is going to be lost in the shuffle here is Class F (if there was such a thing) or worse. It is a market reserved to the most junior of O&G startups, non-profits and Primerica suckers. I have been through plenty of this space in the last few weeks as an affiliated company seeks expanded space. Originally we wanted to shack up in EAP together but the timing didn't work.
I suspect some of these buildings will start coming down as the decade wears on. Others, Epcor Place for instance is being gutted to bare concrete and will be reborn AAA. I suspect the ball will swing first in Eau Claire. |
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