Is Canada up Dawsons creek without a paddle?
 

Seriously I don't get it, I'm absolutely baffled how people aren't thinking it's a big deal.

I'm search for articles online that don't paint Canada as absolutely fawked, however the more and more I read about the Iran saudi situation the more it seems logical that our oil is worth very little.

I for the life of me can't understand how anyone thinks a collapse of a primary industry means that things are just gonna be corrected by a lower dollar.

I'm genuinely curious about this, but I still can't fathom the technical details.

Our oil is of a very low quality, it's expensive to produce, it seems quite logical that our role is dimishing as Iran starts kicking out higher quality oil, along with russian and sauidis who are kicking out a great deal as well.

Some parts of Canada have diversified economies that are absolutely benefiting from the low dollar. I have never seen things this good in this region since 2006, boom times are back and should stay this way for a number of years, if your skill set is aligned with local needs. Cant see the local job market benefiting someone with 6 years of oil sands experience however..

First of all, the industry is not going to collapse, it is just going to slow down.

Second, look at what percentage of Canada's economy is related to crude oil? 5%? 3%?

And areas of the country that benefit from the lower dollar make up roughly 70% of the country's population.

Even Alberta itself won't collapse because of this. It will only slow down.

Though I suppose the situation probably looks a lot worse when viewed from Newfoundland.

All industries are related - directly or indirectly - to petroleum.

Yes indeed, but for many industries low petroleum prices are a positive as opposed to a negative.

The oil industry struggling helps diversity everywhere. Canada has traditionally used three industries as a crutch - oil, finance, and telecommunications. These industries generally don't innovate, don't really produce anything, enjoy government sanctioned monopolies, and employ huge numbers of people, but generally speaking when these industries suffer Canada "stops using the crutch" for a while and other industries can grow.

The only industries that Canadians should really care about are those in which Canadians are inventing things, manufacturing things, and providing something to the world that only Canadians can provide (through intellectual property, patents, and legal protections).

Those are the industries worth fighting for and worth losing sleep over if they suffer. Oil collapses? Let's stop using the crutch. Sometimes a crisis is unfortunately the only path forward to stir action from lazy inertia.

Very true. The airlines LOVE cheaper gas! The low dollar is great for exports; however, if other economies' dollars are deflated, then we're back to square one. :(

This is absolute 100 percent horseshit.

Newfoundland for example is basically a few degrees away from rather drastic austerity.

We get a massive portion of governments of revenue from oil, and it means almost all sectors of government here are contracting.


I have no idea how trickle down economics factors in, but if alberta is experience the same thing as well as mining in northern ontario, as well as the rest of the prairies and the north.

I have no idea how anyone here can pretend trickle down economics doesn't happen in Canada.

What are these many industries? People keep saying this and I've yet to see any tangible answers.

The answer always amounts "to stuff"

I'm not saying everyone is gonna loose there jobs.

But the few industries that keep getting mentioned appear to be suffering as well due for a number of reasons.

A billion dollar project that is cancelled doesn't mean that billion dollars gets transferred to another industry. It means the money is lost. As in goes out of the economy. You can't have a loss of 10 billion in one industry and pretend that it balances out because another industry profits, 500 million.

Anything that relies on transportation to be supplied or get their stuff to markets or needs fuel to run machines. Which is a huge portion of the economy.

This is not meant to be insensitive but Newfoundland is only 500k people out of 35M.

And keeping with the horse metaphor, it's hitched its wagon to oil way more than Alberta has.

Alberta Gdp's contribution to the country Equals if not Dwarfs Quebecs.

******Knocks the chess board over :cheers:******

I'm very pro quebec for a number of reasons but the number's don't add up.

Over the last few months I've grown very bored with these conversations about which street corner has the best poutine.

I'm still struggling how to appreciate the idea that less money for another country turns into more money for another portion of the country.

This is not even primarily about Quebec.

Ever heard of Ontario? :rolleyes:

I understand this, however again if consumer spending is likely to dip in many regions of the country, I don't understand how this is being offset by a reduction in shipping costs.


I'm a big believer that the oil economy should of never came to canada, and that we've atrophied because of it.

However I can't for the life of me understand how this paradigm shift is looking remotely like a smooth transition.

Even canadian aeronautics appears to be getting a kick in the stomach for whatever reason.

as I said northern ontario is getting hit hard by cheap commodities, commerce is getting hit hard by drop in commodities, and even manufacturing has a up hill battle to get back in gear.


If this was a smoother transition I would have hope, but this whole situation seems anything but smooth.

EDIT: If I had time back I would of renamed the thread is Canada experiencing a smooth or drastic economic transition.


Oh yeah I forgot ontario provincial is fucked up as well.

Oh forgot the housing bubble.

But don't worry interest RATES shall save us.

Jesus Christ, is this a conversation with a sobre adult or a drunken old man? The majority of Ontario's economy is in services. With the lower dollar our services can be exported with a strong value proposition. IT services, financial services, consulting services, etc., etc. Unlike what some person said earlier finance is not a crutch, its a huge revenue generating service industry. For example, TD Bank has one of the largest branch networks in the US, it gets revenues back in US dollars and its high value exports in terms of wealth management etc. are cheaper due to the low dollar. Suddenly billions of dollars are flowing here due to the weaker dollar and we're not even mentioning manufacturing and tourism which are indeed growing. Ever driven around the GTA? These thousands of manufacturing plants you see are producing hundreds of niche and differentiated goods, its not just cars as the stereotype goes..

This part I don't get consulting and such, were these companies not doing any business with alberta companies? I understand that dollar makes us more attractive but I do not understand how that magically offsets a huge lack of money coming in from a large portion of the country.

It's not just oil that is getting hurt, any retail relying on american goods is obviously gonna get hit hard etc etc.

Again things like tourism and Manufacturing are hit hard by people with less money. This the stuff that makes no sense. Say what you want about oil workers that money goes right back into the economy. Tourism(bars' resturants etc, are the kinds of place that you can see this directly)

Well, if there is a commercial relationship that is based on Canadian retail sales supplied with American goods, wouldn't it actually be the case that it is the American suppliers who are relying on Canadian customers in this particular instance?

We're not obligated to buy anything. But suppliers (be they American or Canadian) are compelled to sell.

Regarding Alberta and its GDP, it's actually forecast to post some modest growth in 2016.

Stryker, you seem to be talking as if the entire amount is going to vanish altogether.

Even if it drops by 5-10% (which is huge), the bulk of the GDP is still there.