What would Canadian MSAs/CSAs look like?
 

I thought this could be interesting for comparing Canadian cities to American MSA/CSAs.

An MSA is made up of central counties, where most of the urban population lives in the main urban area of the MSA (at least 50% of total pop must be urban). It also has outlying counties, which have at least 25% of the workers who live there commuting to the central counties. And yeah, the MSA (and CSA) is delineated at the county level, not at the municipal level like CMAs. I'll consider census divisions to be equivalent to counties.

Toronto-Hamilton-Barrie CSA: 7,277,300
Montreal CSA: 4,454,842
Ottawa-Cornwall-Brockville CSA: 1,579,192
Winnipeg CSA: 826,679
Kitchener-Waterloo-Guelph CSA: 715,456
London-Oxford CSA: 594,426


Toronto-Oshawa MSA: 6,111,072
Montreal-Saint Jean MSA: 4,224,026
Ottawa MSA: 1,368,722
Winnipeg MSA: 790,391
Hamilton MSA: 564,825
Kitchener-Waterloo MSA: 507,096
London-St Thomas MSA: 488,707
Barrie-Orillia MSA: 446,063
St. Catharines-Niagara MSA: 431,346
Windsor MSA: 388,782
Guelph MSA: 208,360
Brantford MSA: 136,035
Peterborough MSA: 134,933

EDIT: The numbers below are based on the Transporation Tomorrow Survey, which are different from those of the 2006 census (see post #6)

Although Oshawa and Hamilton are considered separate urban areas from Toronto, this is only because they are considered separate CMAs. Since >25% of Durham and Hamilton commutes into the rest of the GTA, their urban areas (population centres) would not be considered separate. Therefore, Toronto's core counties would be Toronto, Peel, York, Halton, Durham and Hamilton.

Kawartha Lakes and Dufferin both meet the outlying county requirements.

For CSAs, you take the smaller metro area, and add the percentage of workers commuting into the bigger metro to the percentage of jobs in the smaller metro worked on by residents of the larger metro to get the "interchange number".

Simcoe County would qualify as being part of Toronto's CSA. Wellington, Peterborough and Brant come close at around 22-23 according to the Transportation Toronto Survey from 2006, but close is not good enough. Niagara and Waterloo Regions aren't very close at 15 and 10 respectively.

However, Wellington County would comfortably qualify as being part of KW's CSA.

Overall populations would be around 6.7 million for Toronto's MSA and 7.15 million for the CSA by 2011 census numbers and around 7 million and 7.45 million respectively by the 2012 estimates.

Kitchener's MSA would have 507k and the Kitchener-Guelph CSA would have 715k by 2011 census numbers and around 535k and 740k respectively by 2012 estimates.

There are some other counties, like Haldimand and Northumberland that might come close to joining the CSAs of Toronto and Peterborough, but they weren't part of the TTS 2006 survey.

edit: maybe move this up to the Canada section

This should be moved to the Canada section, interesting topic!

Looks like the interchange number requirement was reduced to 15 by the US census bureau for 2010 CSAs. That means Wellington, Brant and Peterborough all make the cut, Niagara Region is right at 15 according to the transportation tomorrow survey, so it basically comes down to a rounding error whether it's included or not. This would add about 500-930k people depending on whether Niagara Region is included for a total of about 7.95-8.38 million for the Toronto CSA.

However, I'm not sure what the US census bureau does when an MSA qualifies for being in 2 CSAs, as is the case for Wellington with Waterloo Region and the GTAH. Wellington might be part of Waterloo Region's CSA rather than the GTAH's in this scenario.

Niagara would be more likely to fall in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls MSA/CSA in that case...

I don't think so. Even though Niagara Region is adjacent to Buffalo, there seems to be relatively little commuting between the two. According to Statistics Canada (2006), only 1.0% of Niagara's labour force works outside Canada compared to 79.5% working within Niagara Region (including at home), 10.5% elsewhere in Ontario (like Hamilton), 8.7% with no fixed workplace address, and 0.1% in another province. Niagara Region would qualify being its own MSA (though as I said, might qualify for Toronto-Hamilton's CSA.

I wonder what the numbers for Northumberland and Haldimand/Norfolk and Perth are. According to the 2006 census.

38.9% of Haldimand's workforce works outside Haldimand
26.1% of Northumberland's workforce works outside Northumberland
24.1% of Norfolk's workforce works outside Norfolk
15.4% of Perth's workforce works outside Perth

That doesn't say where they commute out to though. Do Norfolk residents commute mostly to Hamilton? Brantford? Maybe even London? Or Niagara Region? That's why the Transportation Tommorrow Survey is good, but unfortunately it only covers the Golden Horseshoe.

The 2006 Census numbers are a bit different and seem to show less long distance commuting... Hamilton and Kawartha Lakes both fall slightly short of the requirements to join Toronto's MSA and would only be part of the CSA.

Toronto's MSA would include the GTA+Dufferin County for a population of 6,111,072

Hamilton's MSA would actually include Haldimand as an outlying county for a population 564,825, smaller than the CMA due to the loss of Burlington and Grimsby to Toronto and St. Catharines-Niagara's MSAs. Not entirely unfair since Burlington is more connected to Toronto's CMA than Hamilton's.

Kitchener Waterloo's MSA would have 507,096 people.

Toronto's CSA would include the Hamilton MSA, as well as Simcoe County, Kawartha Lakes and Northumberland County for a total of 7,277,300 people.

Kitchener's CSA would still include Wellington County for 715,456 people and would.

Brantford, St Catharine-Niagara and Peterborough's MSAs would not be part of any CSA.

I dispute the idea that Burlington is more connected to Toronto than Hamilton. People watch Hamilton media there, and are ticats fans and much of Hamilton's elite lives in Burlington.

Why would Hamilton lose Grimsby and Burlington? People fail to understand that most people who live in the current Hamilton CMA also work in the Hamilton CMA. A lot of the jobs happen to be in Burlington though, as this has been where most of the industrial and office development has been for the past 30 years (prime land along the QEW). A lot more Hamiltonians work in Burlington than vice versa. But more Burlington residents work in Burlington+Hamilton than in the Toronto CMA. If anything, Burlington is part of the western GTA rather than Toronto itself. Very close ties with Oakville and Mississauga.

When I said lose Grimsby and Burlington, I meant using US Census rules where you either include the entire county or you don't. Grimsby is in Niagara Region which outside Grimsby and maybe Beamsville is pretty independent of Hamilton. Ditto for Burlington and Halton.

As for whether Burlington itself (and not Halton) is actually close to Hamilton, I guess it depends how you look at it.

Of Burlington's workforce, 39,465 work in Burlington including those working at home, 22,000 work in the Western GTA (rest of Halton and Peel), 8,475 work in Toronto and 8,000 work in Hamilton. Oakville and Mississauga are the second and third biggest destinations for commuters after Burlington respectively.

Of Burlington's jobs, after the 39,465 held by Burlington residents, 24,270 are held by Hamilton residents, 8,160 by residents of the rest of the Western GTA and 1345 by residents of Toronto. From a commuting point of view, Burlington is closer to the rest of the GTA than Hamilton, but it is closer to Hamilton than Toronto or the Western GTA looked at independently.

I agree that culturally, Burlington is more connected to Hamilton though, and the Western part of Burlington (downtown area and Aldershot) definitely feels very connected to Hamilton with the beach strip, RBG, Cootes Paradise, McMaster and Hamilton Harbour being shared assets and the two downtowns being closer to each other than their respective municipality's furthest suburban areas.

Do Hamilton's elite live mostly in Aldershot? The Eastern part of Burlington and Bronte seem to be the area where the Toronto/Sauga and Hamilton spheres overlap.

Abbotsford and Mission would actually qualify as outlying areas of Vancouver's MSA assuming the whole Greater Vancouver Area would be treated as a core county (or counties).

Chilliwack would qualify for Vancouver's CSA though not the MSA. Squamish is considered a Census Agglomeration and it has an interchange number of over 15 although it's part of a massive census subdivision that goes all the way up to Lillooet, so depending on what you consider equivalent to a US county, that area may or may not be included in the CSA. In any case, this area has a relatively small population, so either way, you'd get a little under 2.5 million for the MSA and a little under 2.6 million for the CSA.

For Montreal, I was thinking of using the Regional County Municipalities as the country equivalent. The ones that have more than 50% of the urban population in Montreal's urban area are:

Montreal
Laval
Longueuil
Les Moulins
Therese de Blainville
L'Assomption
Deux Montagnes
Mirabel
Vaudreuil
Roussillon
Lajemmerais

For a total population of 3,623,511. These would be the core counties. The next step involves using this

http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recen...ID=0&PTYPE=889

... to determine what the outlying counties are. This is pretty time consuming. La Riviere du Nord (St Jerome) and La Vallee du Richelieu (Beloeil, Chambly) would most likely get included, and possibly several others. You need to look at all of the census subdivisions within these census divisions to find out what percentage of the census division commutes into Montreal's core counties. If it's >25% the census division is part of the MSA.

EDIT: Vallee du Richelieu, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Haut-Richelieu, Jardins de Napierville and Rouville all qualify as outlying counties, some of them just barely (Maskoutains and Pierre de Sorel don't qualify, and I assume neither does Haute-Yamaska and Brome-Missisquois). Now we just need to find out the North Shore outlying counties and then we can start looking at the CSA. I'm expecting around 4.2 million for the MSA and a bit over 4.5 million for the CSA based on the commuting stats so far.

Montreal MSA:

Core "Counties" (Regional County Municipalities)

Montreal
Laval
Longueuil
Les Moulins
Therese de Blainville
L'Assomption
Deux Montagnes
Mirabel
Vaudreuil
Roussillon
Lajemmerais
Subtotal: 3,623,511

Outlying Counties
La Vallee du Richelieu
Haut Richelieu
Beauharnois-Salaberry
Jardins de Napierville
Rouville
La Riviere du Nord
Les Pays d'en Haut
Montcalm
D'Autray
Subtotal: 600,515

Total MSA: 4,224,026

Montreal CSA:

Core Counties
Montreal
Laval
Longueuil
Les Moulins
Therese de Blainville
L'Assomption
Deux Montagnes
Mirabel
Vaudreuil
Roussillon
Marguerite D'Youville (formerly Lajemmerais)
Subtotal: 3,623,511


Outlying Counties
La Vallee du Richelieu
Haut Richelieu
Beauharnois-Salaberry
Jardins de Napierville
Rouville
La Riviere du Nord
Les Pays d'en Haut
Montcalm
D'Autray
Subtotal: 600,515

Total MSA: 4,224,026

Satellite Counties
Joliette (Joliette micropolitan area)
Argenteuil (Lachute micropolitan area)
Pierre de Saurel (Sorel micropolitan area)
Les Maskoutins (Saint-Hyacinthe micropolitan area)
Subtotal: 230,816

Total CSA: 4,454,842


Some other distant counties like Matawinie and Les Laurentides have high enough interchange numbers to join the Montreal CSA but lack urban areas large enough to form micropolitan areas. Also, the US Census Bureau says that in addition to having an urban area of at least 10,000 people, micro/metro areas need to have sufficiently strong ties to the rest of their area. Joliette, Sorel and Saint-Hyacinthe are very much the main hub of their counties, so what ever these requirements may be, I'm sure they will qualify. I'm a bit less sure with Lachute though since other parts of Argenteuil have significant ties with Hawkesbury, Montreal and other parts of the Laurentides region. Still, Lachute holds the vast majority of Argenteuil's jobs, so I suspect it would qualify for forming a micropolitan area.

Ottawa CSA:

Core Counties
Ottawa
Gatineau
Subtotal: 1,148,740


Outlying Counties
Les Collines de l'Outaouais
Papineau
Prescott and Russell
Lanark
Subtotal: 219,982

Total MSA: 1,368,722

Satellite Counties
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry (Cornwall micropolitan area)
Leeds and Grenville (Brockville micropolitan area)
Subtotal: 210,470

Total CSA: 1,579,192

As with Lachute though, I'm not sure if Cornwall and especially Brockville would actually form a micropolitan area with its respective county since they aren't that interconnected. Neither Cornwall or Brockville have much intercommuting with Ottawa (interchange numbers of 3.2% and 4.3%), they're only part of the CSA because of strong connections to Ottawa in the Northern parts of their counties.

There is a good chunk of Renfrew County (around Arnprior for example) that is most definitely part of Greater Ottawa or the metro area.

I agree for Arnprior, it does in fact have an interchange value of 51.6% with the Ottawa MSA counties. McNab/Braeside is at 33.2% and Greater Madawaska is at 20.5%.

However, these areas are only home to about 18% of Renfrew's workforce and 16% of its jobs. Pembroke, Petawawa, Renfrew (town), Laurentian Valley/Hills, Whitewater Region, Madawaska Valley and Deep River have much lower interchange values (0-5%), leading to an overall interchange value of 11.84% (it needs to be >15%). This is roughly comparable to the interchange value between La Haute Yamaska and the Montreal MSA (11.24%), or Brant County and the Hamilton MSA (11.37%).

Considering Ottawa manages to pick up Cornwall, Brockville and Gananoque, it's a fair exchange, although these numbers are more of a measure of the size of the sphere of influence than its exact shape.

London CSA:

Core County
Middlesex: 439,151

Outlying County
Elgin: 49,556

Total MSA: 488,707

Satellite County
Oxford: 105,719

Total CSA: 594,426

Elgin County actually barely qualified as an outlying county of London's MSA (25.66% work in Middlesex, needs to be >25%).

Also, while the rural parts of Oxford have net outcommuting to London's MSA, the three main urban centres of Ingersoll, Tillsonburg and Woodstock have net incommuting from London's MSA and are major job centres with more jobs than workers. This is especially true of Tillsonburg. These three towns put together have 4705 jobs held by residents of London's MSA compared to only 2545 working in London's MSA. You also see net outcommuting from London with Stratford and St Marys although not with St Thomas and Strathroy.

Interesting thread. Perhaps it should be moved to Canada forum.

Interesting though counties in the US are generally smaller than counties here. Windsor is missing from your list but I presume it would only be Essex County as part of the 'MSA' ( ~ 375,000).

^^^
389,000 in the 2011 census

I agree.

I agree.


Let's get this over here. Mods?