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eemy Sep 17, 2014 6:02 PM

Statistics Canada Reports
 
These threads always seem fated for a poor end, so maybe one specifically devoted to the latest Statistics Canada reports would be more successful.

I got an e-mail from Statistics Canada letting me know about a session of Chat with an Expert occurring this Friday from 12:30pm to 1:30pm EDT where they will be discussing the latest population projections for the provinces and territories which were released today. I thought there might be a few people on this site who would be interested. Unfortunately I won't be available myself.

You can register and login for the chat here.

vaportrail Sep 17, 2014 9:30 PM

Three-region division. I think it's amazing that, even now, Ontario pretty much matches the entire Canadian west in growth.

year..West.........ON............PQ&Maritimes
2013 11,096,200 13,538,000 10,524,100
2011 10,394,228 12,851,821 10,230,639
2006 9,615,169 12,160,282 9,830,910
2001 9,074,137 11,410,046 9,523,208
1996 8,620,629 10,753,573 9,472,557
1991 7,993,930 10,084,885 9,218,045
1986 7,397,565 9,101,695 8,810,070
1981 7,045,635 8,625,107 8,672,435
1976 6,311,919 8,264,465 8,416,220
1971 5,780,179 7,703,106 8,085,026
1966 5,298,407 6,960,870 7,755,603
1961 4,845,519 6,236,092 7,156,636
1956 4,283,788 5,404,933 6,392,070
1951 3,738,080 4,597,542 5,673,807
1941 3,256,708 3,787,655 4,462,292
1931 3,061,338 3,431,683 3,883,765
1921 2,492,964 2,933,662 3,360,838
1911 1,735,620 2,527,292 2,943,731
1901 645,517 2,182,947 2,542,851
1891 349,646 2,114,321 2,369,272
1881 168,165 1,926,922 2,229,723
1871 109,475 1,620,851 1,958,931
1861 58,215 1,396,091 1,775,327
1851 60,700 952,004 1,423,593

Chadillaccc Sep 17, 2014 10:06 PM

Wow, that is striking. The difference in growth is only 15 000 between 2011 and 2013.

Edit: Actually.. what numbers are you using? Ontario was 13 264 000 in the 2011 estimate, not 12 851 000.

It seems as though you're using census data and comparing it with estimate data, the two of which are incompatible. Estimate data needs to be compared with other estimate data. So to that effect...

West -------------------Ontario
2013 - 11 097 000 ----2013 - 13 538 000
2011 - 10 701 000 ----2011 - 13 264 000

Growth - 396 000 -----Growth - 274 000


Difference = 122 000

1overcosc Sep 18, 2014 12:18 AM

There's something I've always wondered about these estimates. I imagine one of the sources of data are provincial health card records.

Legally, when you move you have to change your address on file with your provincial ministry within 6 days in Ontario (not sure about the time frame in other provinces), and if you move provinces you have to change your health card to your new province. But lots of people fail to do so. My ex, as of three months ago, has an Alberta health card even though he moved from Alberta to Ontario in 2008. I wonder if situations like this result in StatsCan putting people in the wrong province/city in these estimates.

spaceprobe Sep 18, 2014 3:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vaportrail (Post 6733668)
Three-region division. I think it's amazing that, even now, Ontario pretty much matches the entire Canadian west in growth.

year..West.........ON............PQ&Maritimes
2013 11,096,200 13,538,000 10,524,100
2011 10,394,228 12,851,821 10,230,639
2006 9,615,169 12,160,282 9,830,910
2001 9,074,137 11,410,046 9,523,208
1996 8,620,629 10,753,573 9,472,557
1991 7,993,930 10,084,885 9,218,045
1986 7,397,565 9,101,695 8,810,070
1981 7,045,635 8,625,107 8,672,435
1976 6,311,919 8,264,465 8,416,220
1971 5,780,179 7,703,106 8,085,026
1966 5,298,407 6,960,870 7,755,603
1961 4,845,519 6,236,092 7,156,636
1956 4,283,788 5,404,933 6,392,070
1951 3,738,080 4,597,542 5,673,807
1941 3,256,708 3,787,655 4,462,292
1931 3,061,338 3,431,683 3,883,765
1921 2,492,964 2,933,662 3,360,838
1911 1,735,620 2,527,292 2,943,731
1901 645,517 2,182,947 2,542,851
1891 349,646 2,114,321 2,369,272
1881 168,165 1,926,922 2,229,723
1871 109,475 1,620,851 1,958,931
1861 58,215 1,396,091 1,775,327
1851 60,700 952,004 1,423,593

interesting that even in the 1920s to 30s, Ontario has only been a bit larger than the west. plenty might have thought that the West would surpass Ontario by 1940 or 50!...but then Ontario started to grow much faster.

FrAnKs Sep 24, 2014 10:07 PM

At least I tried... I had this question for StatCan :

Feel free to translate ;

Bonjour,

j'aimerais savoir si il est possible de connaître à l'avance les nouvelles municipalités qui seront incluses dans les Agglomérations de recensement de plus de 100 000 habitants pour le prochain recensement de 2016.

Par exemple, si St-Jean-Sur-Richelieu sera maintenant incluse avec Montréal, ou encore, si Pont-Rouge viendra rejoindre Québec.

Merci !

Answer :

« Il est interdit d’émettre tout commentaire sur les changements apportés au recensement jusqu’à la journée de sa publication ».

---

:( too bad

TownGuy Sep 24, 2014 10:22 PM

What's the point of comparing Ontario to the west really? It's 4 friggin provinces against one. :shrug:

Chadillaccc Sep 24, 2014 10:58 PM

Why compare it to the east either? It's 5 provinces against 1.


Because it's for comparison's sake, because Ontario is far and away the single most populous and important province. As such, it's a good measure of the importance/relevance/impact of other regions.

TownGuy Sep 24, 2014 11:32 PM

It's not really a measure of anything though. Whats it prove if 4 provinces grow as fast as one? Why not compare all of Canada against Ontario?

The 5 vs 1 was silly too but no one was talking about it.

Innsertnamehere Sep 25, 2014 4:07 AM

Its regions more so than provinces. Canada has 4 main "regions" (with more subregions, obviously), West, English Central, French Central, and East. Comparing them is only natural as they hold more relevance at that level instead of Saskatchewan vs. Ontario or something, Saskatoon or Regina are Saskatchewans largest cities but they are on the small side in terms of cities in Ontario. Comparing those cities to Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, etc. is simply absurd as they are fundamentally on different scales.

big W Sep 25, 2014 2:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vaportrail (Post 6733668)
Three-region division. I think it's amazing that, even now, Ontario pretty much matches the entire Canadian west in growth.

year..West.........ON............PQ&Maritimes
2013 11,096,200 13,538,000 10,524,100
2011 10,394,228 12,851,821 10,230,639
2006 9,615,169 12,160,282 9,830,910
2001 9,074,137 11,410,046 9,523,208
1996 8,620,629 10,753,573 9,472,557
1991 7,993,930 10,084,885 9,218,045
1986 7,397,565 9,101,695 8,810,070
1981 7,045,635 8,625,107 8,672,435
1976 6,311,919 8,264,465 8,416,220
1971 5,780,179 7,703,106 8,085,026
1966 5,298,407 6,960,870 7,755,603
1961 4,845,519 6,236,092 7,156,636
1956 4,283,788 5,404,933 6,392,070
1951 3,738,080 4,597,542 5,673,807
1941 3,256,708 3,787,655 4,462,292
1931 3,061,338 3,431,683 3,883,765
1921 2,492,964 2,933,662 3,360,838
1911 1,735,620 2,527,292 2,943,731
1901 645,517 2,182,947 2,542,851
1891 349,646 2,114,321 2,369,272
1881 168,165 1,926,922 2,229,723
1871 109,475 1,620,851 1,958,931
1861 58,215 1,396,091 1,775,327
1851 60,700 952,004 1,423,593

These numbers really do highlight the westward movement of Canada's population. I say that not to confuse it with the move to the West but the slow steady movement westward. So growth of Ontario which slowly overtook the population of the provinces to the east and now the growth of the western provinces of Canada overtaking those east of Ontario and maybe overtaking Ontario in the future.

Acajack Sep 25, 2014 2:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vaportrail (Post 6733668)
Three-region division. I think it's amazing that, even now, Ontario pretty much matches the entire Canadian west in growth.

year..West.........ON............PQ&Maritimes
2013 11,096,200 13,538,000 10,524,100
2011 10,394,228 12,851,821 10,230,639
2006 9,615,169 12,160,282 9,830,910
2001 9,074,137 11,410,046 9,523,208
1996 8,620,629 10,753,573 9,472,557
1991 7,993,930 10,084,885 9,218,045
1986 7,397,565 9,101,695 8,810,070
1981 7,045,635 8,625,107 8,672,435
1976 6,311,919 8,264,465 8,416,220
1971 5,780,179 7,703,106 8,085,026
1966 5,298,407 6,960,870 7,755,603
1961 4,845,519 6,236,092 7,156,636
1956 4,283,788 5,404,933 6,392,070
1951 3,738,080 4,597,542 5,673,807
1941 3,256,708 3,787,655 4,462,292
1931 3,061,338 3,431,683 3,883,765
1921 2,492,964 2,933,662 3,360,838
1911 1,735,620 2,527,292 2,943,731
1901 645,517 2,182,947 2,542,851
1891 349,646 2,114,321 2,369,272
1881 168,165 1,926,922 2,229,723
1871 109,475 1,620,851 1,958,931
1861 58,215 1,396,091 1,775,327
1851 60,700 952,004 1,423,593

It's fascinating that when I was born, Quebec and Atlantic Canada (which makes no sense as a region other than as a representation of the "old Canada" for this analysis) had more population than Ontario.

I would have thought QC-Atl would have been overtaken by Ontario long before my birth.

Blader Sep 26, 2014 2:20 PM

2nd quarter results released September 26
 
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quoti...6b-eng.htm?HPA

The provinces
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...ataTable&csid=

GreaterMontréal Sep 26, 2014 2:45 PM

+24,068 for Quebec in the last quarter. Pretty good.

Boris2k7 Sep 26, 2014 2:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vaportrail (Post 6733668)
Three-region division. I think it's amazing that, even now, Ontario pretty much matches the entire Canadian west in growth.

year..West.........ON............PQ&Maritimes
2013 11,096,200 13,538,000 10,524,100
2011 10,394,228 12,851,821 10,230,639
2006 9,615,169 12,160,282 9,830,910
2001 9,074,137 11,410,046 9,523,208
1996 8,620,629 10,753,573 9,472,557
1991 7,993,930 10,084,885 9,218,045
1986 7,397,565 9,101,695 8,810,070
1981 7,045,635 8,625,107 8,672,435
1976 6,311,919 8,264,465 8,416,220
1971 5,780,179 7,703,106 8,085,026
1966 5,298,407 6,960,870 7,755,603
1961 4,845,519 6,236,092 7,156,636
1956 4,283,788 5,404,933 6,392,070
1951 3,738,080 4,597,542 5,673,807
1941 3,256,708 3,787,655 4,462,292
1931 3,061,338 3,431,683 3,883,765
1921 2,492,964 2,933,662 3,360,838
1911 1,735,620 2,527,292 2,943,731
1901 645,517 2,182,947 2,542,851
1891 349,646 2,114,321 2,369,272
1881 168,165 1,926,922 2,229,723
1871 109,475 1,620,851 1,958,931
1861 58,215 1,396,091 1,775,327
1851 60,700 952,004 1,423,593

Man, look at those changes... from 1881 to 1911 and then from 1961 to 1981.

Chadillaccc Sep 26, 2014 3:05 PM

Quarterly growth:

Ontario - 38 553
Alberta - 35 053
Quebec - 24 068
British Columbia - 14 676
Manitoba - 5 498
Saskatchewan - 5 281

Prince Edward Island - 494
Nova Scotia - 478
Nunavut - 335
Yukon - 285

Northwest Territories - -102
Newfoundland - -117
New Brunswick - -690


Highlights: Nunavut surpasses Yukon, Alberta growth slows slightly, British Columbia growth picks up again, Nova Scotia returns to positive growth.

Drybrain Sep 26, 2014 3:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc (Post 6744635)

Highlights: Nunavut surpasses Yukon, Alberta growth slows slightly, British Columbia growth picks up again, Nova Scotia returns to positive growth.

I'm not sure what to make of PEI. Growing faster than Nova Scotia last quarter. Its population growth rate, if extrapolated to a province of Alberta's size, would be about 14,000 new people. If extrapolated to Ontario's size, it'd be about 46,000. (To put it another way, Ontario's population gain last quarter amounted to 1/348th of its population. PEI's was 1/293rd.)

Obviously the vast difference in scale means statistical anomalies are more likely in PEI's case, but the province posted consistently robust numbers like this until late 2012 (with the occasional weak quarter) when all of the Maritimes started flagging in a more serious way. Maybe they're picking up again; in any case, the numbers are so small that the the trend is lost—PEI is often among the fastest growing provinces, even as its Atlantic neighbours are the slowest.

Blader Sep 26, 2014 3:44 PM

Screenshot:

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3863/...e08eea42_b.jpg
Source:http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...ataTable&csid=
Footnotes:

1.
Postcensal estimates are based on the 2011 Census counts adjusted for census net undercoverage (CNU) (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated Indian reserves (IEIR)) and the components of demographic growth that occurred since that census. Intercensal estimates are produced using counts from two consecutive censuses adjusted for CNU (including (IEIR) and postcensal estimates.
2.
Quarterly population estimates: Quarter I = January 1; Quarter II = April 1; Quarter III = July 1; Quarter IV = October 1.
3.
Estimates are final intercensal and unadjusted for census net undercoverage prior to July 1, 1971. Estimates are final intercensal from July 1, 1971 to April 1, 2011, final postcensal for July 1, 2011, updated postcensal from October 1, 2011 to April 1, 2014 and preliminary postcensal from July 1, 2014.
4.
Population estimates for Northwest Territories and Nunavut are presented separately from July 1, 1991.
5.
Prior to July 1, 1991, only population estimates for Northwest Territories and Nunavut combined are available.
6.
The population growth, which is used to calculate population estimates, is comprised of the natural growth (CANSIM 53-0001), international migration (CANSIM 51-0037) and interprovincial migration (CANSIM 51-0017 and 51-0045).

Nicko999 Sep 26, 2014 4:00 PM

I expect Alberta's growth to fall to about 2% in the next 2-3 years.

LeftCoaster Sep 26, 2014 5:11 PM

Hmm, that is not an expectation shared by many.

Pretty tepid growth outside Alberta, but I don't expect that to last too long.


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