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-   -   A game: guess that house price (before the bubble bursts!) (https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=220453)

rousseau Jan 5, 2016 12:16 AM

A game: guess that house price (before the bubble bursts!)
 
Renovator's special in what you might call "upper" Little India in Toronto. Completely gutted and with new footings, according to the MLS ad. In a comfortable inner ring residential area that is typical Toronto: a bit shabby-looking, and nothing to set an urbanist's heart aflame, but just down a ways from one of this continent's most fantastic commercial streets, Little India on Gerrard (probably has little to no bearing on the price of the house, though).

http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j2...y.jpg~original

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.67523...8i6656!6m1!1e1

How much do you think it's listed for? Don't cheat. The closest guesser within $10,000 wins 15 million internet simoleons and the right to post the next house. (Just go to mls.ca, save a photo of the house in question to your hard drive, upload it to your image host of choice (photobucket, flickr, etc.) and then post a link to said image in your post).

Architype Jan 5, 2016 12:17 AM

1.3 million?

rousseau Jan 5, 2016 12:18 AM

Too warm.

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 12:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Architype (Post 7287834)
1.3 million?

That's too much if the house is being sold in a gutted state. Assuming it's otherwise in decent condition, I'd say $800,000 gutted, $1.1 if the interior were fully renovated.

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 12:40 AM

Gutted? $985,000.

Just so it's in the six figures... y'know, basic marketing. "Just down a ways from one of this continent's most fantastic commercial streets, for... not even one mere million! Hurry before someone else snaps it up!!!"

rousseau Jan 5, 2016 12:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer (Post 7287852)
Assuming it's otherwise in decent condition, I'd say $800,000 gutted...

Cold.

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 12:45 AM

On the other hand, I've always said that it would be smarter to do total rehabs in, say, the nicest areas of places like Manhattan or San Francisco (provided you have of course the required capital to start with), since most of your investments are identical (your time and the material needed) but the jump in value from trashed to rehabbed is going to be a much bigger absolute number of dollars.

I don't really do total rehabs anymore, but if I did in a Canadian context, this POS would probably make sense, even if the asking price seems outrageous at first sight. (Unless I'm really unlucky on the timing and the bubble pops right during the time I'm fixing it up, but I honestly expect more of a slowing down then mild deflation, we'll all see it coming IMO.)

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 12:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rousseau (Post 7287861)
Cold.

Shurely not over $1M for a gutted house!? I am out of touch with Toronto.

caltrane74 Jan 5, 2016 12:47 AM

My guess, is $750-$800k because it's gutted. Otherwise, I would have said $1 million.

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 12:48 AM

BTW, architecturally, the thin bland pillars and the incorrectly-mansarded second story are real turnoffs. The colors suck as well.

logan5 Jan 5, 2016 12:48 AM

This area is probably the equivalent to Grandview/Woodlands (which is centred around Commercial Dr.) in Vancouver. If it's close to 1.3 that's pretty much on par with Vancouver, where housing prices are supposedly much higher.

rousseau Jan 5, 2016 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer (Post 7287866)
Shurely not over $1M for a gutted house!? I am out of touch with Toronto.

$1.3 million is too warm. $800,000 is too cold.

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 12:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rousseau (Post 7287881)
$1.3 million is too warm. $800,000 is too cold.

OK, so in that case I will go to $900,000. If it's more than that I can only say "when will the insanity stop?"!

rousseau Jan 5, 2016 1:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer (Post 7287886)
OK, so in that case I will go to $900,000. If it's more than that I can only say "when will the insanity stop?"!

Close enough. List price is $871,900. It's a bit cheaper due to being gutted.

Your turn.

logan5 Jan 5, 2016 1:04 AM

Oh. I thought too warm meant very close. Ok Vancouver much more expensive.

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 1:06 AM

I'll let someone else take my turn.

rousseau Jan 5, 2016 1:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by logan5 (Post 7287893)
Oh. I thought too warm meant very close. Ok Vancouver much more expensive.

You know what? I did that wrong! Warm means close, and cold means you're not close, as you say.

For some reason I was using warm to mean "too high" and cold to mean "too low." Call it a brain spasm.

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 1:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer (Post 7287896)
I'll let someone else take my turn.

... May I? :)

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 1:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45 (Post 7287900)
... May I? :)

Go for it, but keep it in Canada, OK?

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 1:29 AM

This very nice condo, right next door to the Château Frontenac in the walled Upper Town.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir//46..../data=!3m1!1e3

Pics from the MLS will be up in a minute or so...

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 1:45 AM

Pics. It's on two stories. In order, you'll see the living room (with the red sofas), then kitchen, then bedrooms, and the bathroom.


http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psslasqb9h.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psmu1mujdm.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psajqcqesg.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psi8vlxyuh.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...pszz7zy8bf.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psz1cdgaws.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psbldq5vej.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...ps8acuwzto.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psqwj5umgj.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psbvck5m0j.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psb8eqif5i.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psjaa70ct9.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psy2ithsw2.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...psqijbogb9.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...ps83wyokiq.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...ps9zwy6roe.jpg




http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...pszfvdlf9v.jpg



and last but not least, the view standing in front of it. (The shadow you see is the building.) That's a pretty nice square, FYI.

http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y15...ps2zmqkdmk.jpg


Note that there are no condo fees for the unit, and the municipal tax bill is for the whole building (I'm guessing that what's indicated in the MLS listing is just for this unit, though -- about $2k/year). This is unit #1, a 2br apt, but the building is in the undivided condo ownership form -- not that uncommon in older areas here -- so when it comes to planning ahead for large expenses related to the entire building, you have to kinda get along with the owners of the other units. (And hope they're not unilingual Mandarin speakers.)

Also, all the furniture in the unit is included in the sale.

rousseau Jan 5, 2016 1:51 AM

Stunning. Beautiful. $650,000?

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 1:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rousseau (Post 7287934)
Stunning. Beautiful. $650,000?

Any other offers before I let out the info whether this is too hot, too warm, too cold, or warm or cold in the normal sense?

I'll wait a little while, otherwise it's unfair to rousseau as the others can adjust their guesses...

SignalHillHiker Jan 5, 2016 1:54 AM

That's really pretty. The red leather is a bit overdone to my taste but I love the decor overall.

I'd say... $990,000.

MonctonRad Jan 5, 2016 1:58 AM

I'm going to pull a "Price is Right" on Signal and go for $991,000 :)

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 2:03 AM

Very nice - very English provincial looking exterior. It looks like this is the lower of the two units. I am going to guess $450,000.

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 2:08 AM

Hmm, maybe it's the somewhat English look that fooled SHH and MonctonRad into believing the property was located in London, England when making their price guesses... :P

As requested, it's in Canada, and keep in mind guys -- it's not in Toronto or Vancouver.

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 2:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45 (Post 7287958)
Hmm, maybe it's the somewhat English look that fooled SHH and MonctonRad into believing the property was located in London, England when making their price guesses... :P

Am I too high or too low? If it were in another city, I'd price it higher, but my impression is that properties are reasonably priced, even in the Old City.

Edit: You didn't actually say - we are looking at Quebec City here, no?

SignalHillHiker Jan 5, 2016 2:10 AM

I don't understand your property prices at all. I was low-balling it knowing it's said real estate in Quebec is cheap.

That'd easily be more than $1.5 million here. Easily. There are clapboard-clad, poor man's equivalents of that here that fetch that much.

I assume we can't guess a second time? Very curious to see where this one lands. :D

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 2:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer (Post 7287961)
Edit: You didn't actually say - we are looking at Quebec City here, no?

Of course. There was an unfortunate page change between my two consecutive posts so maybe you missed the first of the two (bottom of first page, gives you the exact location) ...?

I'll just quote it then:

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45 (Post 7287918)
This very nice condo, right next door to the Château Frontenac in the walled Upper Town.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir//46..../data=!3m1!1e3

Pics from the MLS will be up in a minute or so...


rousseau Jan 5, 2016 2:15 AM

I want hints!

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 2:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker (Post 7287962)
I don't understand your property prices at all. I was low-balling it knowing it's said real estate in Quebec is cheap.

That'd easily be more than $1.5 million here. Easily. There are clapboard-clad, poor man's equivalents of that here that fetch that much.

I assume we can't guess a second time? Very curious to see where this one lands. :D

I think this is "multiple guess", SHH. With the price you note above, keep in mind that this is a two bedroom apartment - if you turn that $1.5M into a price per sq ft, you'll see that it's not possible.

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 2:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rousseau (Post 7287970)
I want hints!

Hint 1: If you guys had made actual offers, someone would be laughing all the way to the bank. Even in kw's case.

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 2:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer (Post 7287971)
I think this is "multiple guess", SHH. With the price you note above, keep in mind that this is a two bedroom apartment - if you turn that $1.5M into a price per sq ft, you'll see that it's not possible.

It is likely very possible -- in a place like London, especially given the current GBP to loonie exchange rate.

SignalHillHiker Jan 5, 2016 2:18 AM

No effing way. :haha:

Okay, I'll guess $360,000.

SignalHillHiker Jan 5, 2016 2:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer (Post 7287971)
I think this is "multiple guess", SHH. With the price you note above, keep in mind that this is a two bedroom apartment - if you turn that $1.5M into a price per sq ft, you'll see that it's not possible.

I just went to check ours (there's always one for sale). Sure enough, a similar-looking standard of place. But cheaper and clapboard.

$1.05 million.

But the kicker - you're right. It has 7 bedrooms. :haha:

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 2:22 AM

Unit dimensions, just so you guys can keep in in perspective (and again, I have to insist, it's not Midtown Manhattan).

Living room.......... 20 ft x 15 ft, 4 in
Kitchen................ 18 ft, 2 in x 9 ft
Master bedroom.... 12 ft, 2 in x 12 ft
Second bedroom.... 9 ft, 9 in x 10 ft, 2 in
Bathroom............. 6 ft x 6 ft, 11 in

Entire unit, 942 sq ft

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 2:24 AM

OK, I am going to recalibrate and guess $289,000. Outrageous if true, but one can always dream....

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 2:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker (Post 7287979)
I just went to check ours (there's always one for sale). Sure enough, a similar-looking standard of place. But cheaper and clapboard.

$1.05 million.

But the kicker - you're right. It has 7 bedrooms. :haha:

You should've kept that one for your turn ;)

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 2:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer (Post 7287984)
OK, I am going to recalibrate and guess $289,000. Outrageous if true, but one can always dream....

Okay, seeing that you're the closest to the listing price ($249k) I will be declaring you the winner.

MLS listing:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/S...Colline-parlem

As the listing agent says, it's "ideal" as a pied-à-terre in the heart of the walled town, for some of you GTAers who've just sold their detached SFH to a Chinese investor for way too much and want to use some of your new pocket change on a second residence in Quebec City.

rousseau Jan 5, 2016 2:57 AM

Quote:

Idéal comme pied à terre. Condo de charme rénové. Au pied du Château Frontenac en plein coeur du vieux Québec. Bel environnement historique, beaucoup de cachet, 2cc, murs de pierre, entièrement meublé et équipé, vue sur le fleuve et la terrasse Dufferin. Possibilité de revenus en location mensuelle. L'endroit idéal pour les amoureux d'histoire.
"Beaucoup de cachet"? You'd think the French could have come up with their own words instead of borrowing them from English all the time.

What's "2cc"?

What would the neighbours think if you bought this as a pied à terre and let it sit empty for most of the year? Could you live in a city far away from Quebec and hire someone to run it as an AirBnB place for the days/weeks/months that you don't inhabit it yourself?

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 3:03 AM

A property like that for an asking price of $265 per sq ft. One wonders why people aren't beating a path to own "pied a terre"s in the old city?

I guess that means that it is supposed to be my turn, but I will cede the honour to someone else.

lio45 Jan 5, 2016 3:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rousseau (Post 7288007)
"Beaucoup de cachet"? You'd think the French could have come up with their own words instead of borrowing them from English all the time.

What's "2cc"?

What would the neighbours think if you bought this as a pied à terre and let it sit empty for most of the year? Could you live in a city far away from Quebec and hire someone to run it as an AirBnB place for the days/weeks/months that you don't inhabit it yourself?

2cc is shorthand realtorspeak for "deux chambres à coucher". In English realtorspeak you'd say 2br.

The listing agent actually says that it would be possible for the buyer to get income renting the place on a more short-term basis. I can't guarantee your neighbors (the owners of the other units) would be thrilled if your unit became a year-round revolving door AirBnB spot, though.

You'd have to check with the agent and see if there's some kind of condo convention and what it says. At least it's possible to short-term sublet the place according to the listing, which is pretty nice already.

Pinion Jan 5, 2016 3:04 AM

edit: deleted temporarily. Have saved it for future posting.

signalhill, what do you think it is, toronto?! That would be a steal ;)

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 3:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rousseau (Post 7288007)
"Beaucoup de cachet"? You'd think the French could have come up with their own words instead of borrowing them from English all the time.

What's "2cc"?

What would the neighbours think if you bought this as a pied à terre and let it sit empty for most of the year? Could you live in a city far away from Quebec and hire someone to run it as an AirBnB place for the days/weeks/months that you don't inhabit it yourself?

Not a bad idea. That location would be pretty quiet at night, but the tourist offerings are very close by.

SignalHillHiker Jan 5, 2016 3:05 AM

$1.2 million.

EDIT: Nevermind, carry on. :D

rousseau Jan 5, 2016 3:05 AM

It's not your turn. Kwoldtimer goes next (or allows someone else to go next).

Pinion Jan 5, 2016 3:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rousseau (Post 7288017)
It's not your turn. Kwoldtimer goes next (or allows someone else to go next).

He said he ceded the honour.

kwoldtimer Jan 5, 2016 3:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rousseau (Post 7288017)
It's not your turn. Kwoldtimer goes next (or allows someone else to go next).

Yes, someone else can go ahead.

Pinion Jan 5, 2016 3:10 AM

Ok, take two. This is the closest detached home to me right now

http://i.imgur.com/7DHSw2X.jpg

East side of Lonsdale in North Van (Moodyville). Not a particularly high end neighbourhood - traditionally working class - but close to some up and coming areas and the ocean.

-Square footage not even listed because no one in their right mind would buy it to live in it - it's crack house calibre. No interior photos.
-50 ft x 147 ft lot
-74 years old
-Next to a bus depot

If you get within $200,000 I'll be impressed.


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