predictions for calgary 2009
 

The following are my predictions for the calgary construction scene for next year:

1. EAP to be capped at ground level
2. Bow to keep rising and be an amazing structure
3. Underground tunnel for airport - yes
4. Pedestrian bridges - no
5. Major Chartered Bank moves headquarters to Calgary

I agree with all but #5.

I disagree with 1 and 4. You are far too pessimistic.

The boomtown goes bust and everyone leaves...

Just joking folks!!!


Seriously, I hope things go well for Calgary.

Same here.

I agree with all but 1, 4, & 5!

I really hope that I am wrong about EAP and the pedestrian bridges and I really do believe that one of the banks will move out west.

What are some predictions from others on this forum.

Could you tell us why you would think that?

Miami style condo crash - condos smaller than my kitchen are not worth $400,000 or even $100,000.

Rental investors take on said condos.

Cross Iron Mills disappoints Calgarians expecting Arizona Mills, Ontario Mills (between LA and Palm Springs), Sawgrass Mills or Colorado Mills. "The Mills" brand is very strong in Calgary and Cross Iron Mills will disappoint those expecting a US outlet mall.

Retail development won't be significantly impacted by oil crash.

I have been speaking with various individuals who are tied to the financial services industry and they seem to think that the balance of financial power will shift westward due to the amount of money which is tied to the oil and gas industry. I suppose that because of what is happening right now in the economy it could delay that shift, but the rumours are out there that we will see a bank move in the future.

I think it's because of an old Canadian law that states that "have not" provinces are not allowed to headquarter Canadian banks.

At least, this seemed to be the rationale in the past whenever anyone dared suggest a bank move out of Toronto. :haha:

Seriously though. Federal cultural institutions are moving out west (or at least, being considered). Simply unthinkable 20 years ago, yet it's happening. I no longer doubt that even more bizarre things could happen. Things are changing in this country and I suspect the next generation might wonder why we still talk jokingly/derisively about Toronto being the "centre of the universe".

In that case we should see all the banks fleeing Ontario thanks to their gaining of that status :P

I don't understand why the pedestrian bridges wouldn't go forward. They are approved and have a budget. If anything, a slow down will allow construction prices to come down, and they might get built for less than the estimated cost (okay, maybe that is a bit optimistic).

that makes no sense, all the banks and the infrastructure are in Toronto, there is no way any major chartered bank would pack up shop and move west, especially with the economic downturn, moving a bank HQ costs alot of money...

1. Library design competition will start (3rd year in a row I've predicted this :cool:)

2. Imperial will release plans for their tower

3. Several projects like Eau Claire Market, City Centre residential, Concord Pacific, Grosvenor take at least until late summer to start marketing to let the market catch up.

4. A couple large scale developments get announced that are a complete surprise.

5. Le Germain turns out to be everyone's favourite new project (besides the Bow).

1. Pedestrian bridges - yes
2. Building proposals under development like Herald Sq and Imperial Oil get approved, but don't go anywhere during this business cycle. Large tenants sign leases at EAP instead.
3. Sorry but I don't see a big bank moving here in the near future. Would love it to happen, but I don't think it will. However we will continue to solidify our position as the financial and business hub of the west.
4. No news on the library front, since escalating taxes make the idea politically unpalatable.
5. A few residential projects are capped - but the majority continue on. I predict that Bow and EAP will be the last high-rise buildings to go up in Calgary for a few years.
6. Airport tunnel - no. Getting the feds and province to contribute during this economic environment proves a challenge, and the City doesn't have the funds to go it alone.
7. Calgary continues to grow as an emerging business hub by securing more international direct flights, much like we did with Mexico City this year. Hong Kong? Tokyo? Dubai?

-The Bow keeps rising and totally exciting to watch :cool:
-Imperial unveils there new tower
Gateway Midtown gets picked up and the design is altered, but gets back on track
-EAP keeps going.
-Brookfield and Epcor don't go anywhere

-I don't see a big bank moving here in the near future, but a major financial institution may very well do so in the long term.

No new highrise condo or office projects break ground in 2009.

The City defers several large projects as cost overruns on those underway can no longer be swept under the carpet. None of the airport road tunnel, pedestrian bridges, library, science center or arts projects go forward. Maybe even the WLRT gets delayed.

EAP secures enough tenants to narrowly avert the first tower being capped. The second tower is not even mentioned for several years.

The CMLC fails to attract a single interested developer. East Village remains a haven for parking lots, crack heads and whores, albeit now with a welcoming pedestrian environment.

Several more oilsands and upgrader projects are canceled, downsized or delayed which has a big impact on the engineering and construction sectors.

Housing prices continue to decline, with inner city condos leading the descent.

Calgary still fares better than almost every other Canadian city.

I can't help but feel that these two are very realistic, at least number 2 has some upside.

http://sidesalad.net/archives/Debbie...haelDratch.jpg

:cool: