The US Census Bureau thread
U.S. Population: Nearly 309 Million, Census Says
December 21, 2010 By Mark Memmott http://media.npr.org/chrome/news/nprlogo_138x46.gif Read More: http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/...=nl&cc=brk-201 Interactive Map: http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/ Quote:
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Hmm. Looks like the South is rising again, and the North is losing members. Not surprising, considering the Sun Belt growth during the past decade.
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although, the north isn't losing people in outright numbers (the northeast & midwest had growth percentages of 3.2%, and 3.9% respectively), they're just losing in terms of relative growth to the booming south and west (14.3% & 13.8% respectively). |
Minnesota didn't do too bad, with a growth rate of 7.8%. That was enough so that we didn't lose a seat in congress.
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What I find interesting is that the states in the Great Planes and Northern states in the middle of the country (Wyoming, Montana, Dakotas, etc) are gaining population at a pretty healthy rate. I thought the general trend was the emptying out of the middle states in favor of the coasts, but that just does not appear to be happening. The growth in the sunbelt is still alive and well though.
Ofcourse we still don't know where within those states the populations is shifting. To me, that is probably just as, if not more, relevant. |
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In terms of shifting the balance of power politically, you've got to remember that while these shifts mean that Republican states are gaining population and political clout, they're also becoming less Republican. The growth is coming from Northern transplants, immigrants, and minorities that lean Democratic.
So this trend only provides a tailwind for the GOP until the demographics reach the magical tipping point where the "newcomers" become a plurality, at which point these states will flip entirely. Look at Virginia and North Carolina in the last election... all that growth in NoVA and Charlotte looks like it helps the Repubs, but longer term, it doesn't really. |
Yea that's what I wax thinking, those growing states are becoming more politically diverse.
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Take NY State. Its losses will mean severe reapportionment in Upstate NY, which is the most Conservative and Republican part of the state. The reapportionment won't do anything to NYC's Congressional Representation. Reapportionment happens according to an individual state's growth patterns. If one area is growing, and the other declining, the declining area will be combined, and the growing area untouched or only slightly modified. So it is only true that these House seat losses mean a more Conservative Congress if the areas with the slowest growth happen to be Democrat-leaning. I'm not so sure this is true. |
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at the congressional representative level, the reapportionment probably won't be as earth shattering as some would have you believe, because as you guys said, trading 2 GOP reps from NY and 1 from IL for 3 new GOP reps in texas isn't a net gain for the GOP, they're just moving the states they're coming from.
but moving 10 reps overall from the north to the south (and the conservative interior west) could have implications in the electoral college for the next presidential election if it's a close one. |
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here are the winners and losers:
texas: +4 florida: +2 arizona: +1 georgia: +1 nevada: +1 south carolina: +1 utah: +1 washington: +1 new york: -2 ohio: -2 illinois: -1 iowa: -1 louisiana: -1 massachusetts: -1 michigan: -1 missouri: -1 new jersey: -1 pennsylvania: -1 source: http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/ |
That's right, Steely.
Other than the ever present redistricting shenanigans, the net effect on the House should theoretically be zero. People moving around the country doesn't impact the total number of Republican and Democratic voters, and if, say, Upstate New York loses people but metro Atlanta gains people, it's not an advantage to the GOP. Where it matters is in the Electoral College. But as I said, that's only true until the Northeast/Midwest migration to the Sunbelt reaches critical mass, at which point traditionally Republican states become moderate or Democratic, and the GOP is worse off than it was in the 1980s. |
The 2000-2010 Census numbers were interesting, but I wanted to go back in and break it down to the last year of growth to see how recent economic changes have affected growth rates. Here are the states (and DC) ranked by Growth Rate and Numeric Growth for the period from July 1, 2009 estimates to April 1, 2010 Census counts. I would imagine this gives a lot of insight into what has happened as a result of the recession? Or, does this just reflect inaccuracies of the Census estimates being corrected?
BY % GROWTH 1 HI 5.03% 2 ND 3.98% 3 WY 3.56% 4 NM 2.46% 5 NV 2.17% 6 WV 1.83% 7 OK 1.74% 8 AK 1.68% 9 NE 1.65% 10 NC 1.65% 11 CT 1.59% 12 AL 1.51% 13 VA 1.50% 14 MT 1.48% 15 TX 1.47% 16 DE 1.45% 17 FL 1.42% 18 ID 1.41% 19 SC 1.41% 20 MD 1.30% 21 IA 1.28% 22 KS 1.22% 23 NJ 0.97% 24 IN 0.94% 25 LA 0.92% 26 AR 0.92% 27 WA 0.91% 28 TN 0.79% 29 CA 0.79% 30 PA 0.77% 31 ME 0.76% 32 MN 0.72% 33 VT 0.64% 34 KY 0.59% 35 WI 0.57% 36 MS 0.52% 37 DC 0.34% 38 SD 0.22% 39 OR 0.14% 40 CO 0.09% 41 MO 0.02% 42 OH -0.05% 43 RI -0.06% 44 NH -0.61% 45 IL -0.62% 46 MA -0.70% 47 UT -0.74% 48 NY -0.84% 49 MI -0.86% 50 GA -1.44% 51 AZ -3.09% BY NUMERIC GROWTH 09-10 1 TX 363,259 2 CA 292,292 3 FL 263,341 4 NC 154,599 5 VA 118,434 6 PA 97,612 7 NJ 84,155 8 MD 74,074 9 AL 71,028 10 HI 65,123 11 OK 64,301 12 SC 64,122 13 IN 60,689 14 WA 60,345 15 NV 57,466 16 CT 55,809 17 TN 49,851 18 NM 49,508 19 LA 41,296 20 IA 38,499 21 MN 37,711 22 KS 34,371 23 WV 33,217 24 WI 32,212 25 NE 29,722 26 AR 26,468 27 ND 25,747 28 KY 25,254 29 ID 21,781 30 WY 19,356 31 MS 15,301 32 MT 14,426 33 DE 12,812 34 AK 11,758 35 ME 10,060 36 OR 5,417 37 CO 4,448 38 VT 3,981 39 DC 2,066 40 SD 1,797 41 MO 1,347 42 RI -642 43 OH -6,141 44 NH -8,105 45 UT -20,687 46 MA -45,958 47 IL -79,777 48 MI -86,087 49 GA -141,558 50 NY -163,351 51 AZ -203,761 |
Even at the national level it won't be that hard for the Democrats to retain their strongholds and win a few battleground states.
For example, the Northeast including D.C., Maryland and Delaware has 112 electoral votes. The Upper Midwest (Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Illinois) add 62 more votes and the West Coast (California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii) add another 78. That's 252 votes that will likely go in favor of Obama, though there's always the possibilities of a few switches (Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, etc.) If Obama can keep Florida then he has more than enough and in fact could lose New Hampshire and Iowa and still win. If he keeps the 252 votes in the likely states and also keeps Ohio then he has exactly enough. If he loses both Ohio and Florida he can take Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico and win. And that doesn't even take into consideration Virginia, which has increasingly become more liberal. He can add Virginia and any one of the Mountain West states and still win. |
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OKLAHOMA Total Pop POPULATION Numeric change % change April 1, 2010 ... 3,751,351 ... 64,301 ... 1.74% July 1, 2009 ... 3,687,050 ... 43,025 ... 1.18% July 1, 2008 ... 3,644,025 ... 31,839 ... 0.88% July 1, 2007 ... 3,612,186 ... 37,852 ... 1.06% July 1, 2006 ... 3,574,334 ... 41,565 ... 1.18% July 1, 2005 ... 3,532,769 ... 18,320 ... 0.52% July 1, 2004 ... 3,514,449 ... 15,762 ... 0.45% July 1, 2003 ... 3,498,687 ... 13,933 ... 0.40% July 1, 2002 ... 3,484,754 ... 20,025 ... 0.58% July 1, 2001 ... 3,464,729 ... 10,786 ... 0.31% July 1, 2000 ... 3,453,943... |
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You are comparing two different ways to measure population. The 2010 Census isn't a continuation of the annual estimates. It's an entirely different type of measurement. In other words, if the 2010 Census were conducted in 2009 (or any other year), the numbers would be totally different than the estimates for that year. |
almost 30 million people in 10 years? :O
thats almost the population of Canada damn we are slow up here |
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