What will Austin of the 2020s look like?
Of course we can glance at NY, Miami, Chicago and LA for trends...but what will Austin spearhead (if anything) for the 20s? Out with boxy silhouettes and in with....?
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I predict higher quality condo buildings. As prices stretch past $1000/ft for condos, we could see a starchitect or two. I also predict an iconic HQ type building downtown. Either from an existing company that explodes or a relo, I think Austin lends itself to a company that wants to make a statement in their HQ, to stand out.
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I think we will finally see the Statesman parcel see some definitive signs of redevelopment and demo of the facility. Highrise construction will continue to move northward and east on Congress Ave. The convention center will expand vertically. ABIA will have broken ground on the new terminal, APD will be planning demo of the existing downtown location to make room for a much needed larger headquarters. By the end of 2020s, the Capitol Building will again be shrouded in scaffolding for some needed maintenance, and Camp Mabry will be decommissioned making way for some major redevelopment, something similar to Mueller and the Domain. Sometime during the 2020s, Lake Travis will see historically low levels. SXSW will see its popularity decline. Development will continue to accelerate east of 35 and south to William Cannon on Congress Ave and First Street forcing more people towards Kyle and Buda which will continue to see their populations boom. The plans for directly north of the Capitol will begin to take shape. The Erwin Center will be gone and the new UT Arena will be the new landmark along 35. There will be at least 1 or 2 more midrise implosions to make room for larger projects. We will see the return of the Dillo buses. The Long Center will see some renovations especially to the exterior. The discussion regarding light rail and I35 will continue. The population under our bridges and overpasses will continue to grow
with both bats and homeless people and extend further north and south of the city. Riverside Drive will be unrecognizable by the end of the decade. Austin will have a female Mayor. MLS will be successful, and NASCAR will not be at COTA. The crown on the Independent will finally be lit. |
Almost all of the major speculative parcels we discuss here regularly will fill out: Statesman site, downtown post office block, Broadmoor, the balance of the Domain, Project Catalyst. McKalla and environs.
We'll set a firm direction on public trans and spend the '20s building it out. ABIA will triple in size. We'll get a couple 700-footers announced, if not built. All the easy downtown parcels will fill in, and developers will increasingly turn to up-developing places that are underused -- places like parking garages, or single story buildings, or even plots that have utility uses (I keep thinking that eventually private money will pay to relo that power station on Shoal Creek; same kind of pressure will eventually hit the state of texas parking garage+chiller station on 4th). |
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I agree with you that The General's vision is spot-on otherwise! Well done. |
Robinson Ranch?
(And by that I mean the actual master planned development including residential, not just isolated parcels). |
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Also, something something....I35! |
Austin's MSA will grow from ~2.4 million (2020) to ~3.3 million (2030).
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I'm not sure what kind of fight would or could be put up if the US Gov't decides to close the base at Mabry. Unless its not a decision that's up to them. Bergstrom AFB was shut down so I'm just assuming Camp Mabry could be vulnerable to consolidation somewhere else since it is relatively small and cost cutting in that area of government is always ongoing, regardless of historic value. Clean up at Bergstrom and the chemical stations around the old IBM plant was expensive but doable. Opening up 80+ acres just northwest of downtown for development would be financially huge and worth the expense to someone. Anyway, not being vested either way, that's just my prediction, and wouldn't it be a whopper if my prophecy did indeed come to fruition??? I've been waiting for the proverbial shoe to drop at Mabry for years as unlikely as it may seem.
A lot can change in 10 years. |
I want to preface by pointing out that for some reason I word everything as a certainty when it’s really just my own opinion/projection, hopefully this isn’t confusing.
2020-2022 the general tech sector is in the center of a national recession due to overvaluation of their markets with potential misguided regulations also a factor. It won’t be a severe recession overall but I’d assume it will affect Austin more than we’re used to feeling. I would suspect that layoffs won’t be an issue but job growth, population growth, and commercial market growth could flatline for a couple years. 2022 Kathie Tovo runs and wins the mayoral election becomes Austin’s first female mayor. A major component of her pitch will be on local artery improvements (particularly Lamar, Guad, and Burnet) aligned with Capital Metro’s Project Connect plans, an improved I-35 through downtown, raising commercial property taxes with particular aim at the recent influx of tech companies, and a more restrictive zoning/development process. 2023 the new Austin State Hospital is complete and renovated with UT as an operating partner. The State then begins phasing out some campus buildings and primes the land to be redeveloped. We’ll see a fairly major project proposed near or next to Central Market that’ll help refund the State some of the money invested into their renovations. 2024-2030 the Convention Center expansion is underway, but more importantly Waller Creek begins to be fully utilized and commercialized with creek-from restaurants and bars stringing from 6th Street down to Rainey St. 2025 Capital Metro puts its first autonomous bus out on the streets. 2025 - Austin (metro) will welcome it’s 2,500,000th citizen 2025 Austin FC is overall successful and proves that there’s a market for professional sports in Austin which sparks NBA expansion talks but ultimately does not go through. Seattle gets one expansion team and Kansas City takes the spot the NBA tapped Austin for. (Side note: I think around this time you’ll hear MLB to San Antonio talks). 2028 - Austin (city limits) will welcome it’s 1,500,000th citizen |
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I predict Jimmy Flannigan will beat her in 2022 to become Austin's first (openly) gay mayor. |
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I'd sign off on Jimmy for Mayor, I personally love what he's bringing to Council right now |
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Damn, Genral... That all feels spot on. I'm really REALLY hoping the homelessness/lake levels part is way off though.
I hope to see several new 700ft-800ft projects inspired by the 80's and early 90's with a pink granite neo-deco kinda theme, oh, and no more flat mechanical penthouses. I REALLY hope we're not worrying about mass public transportation through the next decade, but I've learned to not hold my breath with this city...and it's voters. I do think rail will be less of a thing as autonomous EVs become more mainstream. |
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As these homeless camps continue to grow, in plain sight, its obvious that the larger they get, the safer they feel and the less any city officials know what to do with them, so they are basically left alone, and then because the population and traffic continues to grow away from downtown, the success of pan handling seems to be sustainable with less competition than downtown. But as the Howard overpass camp fills up, the other overpasses up the road will take on the overflows. I think the word is out that nobody messes with them up here, so hear they come and will continue to come. There are literally homeless pan handlers on every intersection on 183 to Cedar Park and from Parmer, to even Georgetown. During the 2020s, the scale of this will become a crisis and they may need to open up a shelter and soup kitchen somewhere between Pflugerville and Round Rock. Yet no one seems to be talking about this...yet. They will. |
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