Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek
People keep saying this, but I'd like to see concrete evidence as to why. Some of the lowest vacancy rates in the country in both apartment rentals and commercial space, growing hotel needs, yet most of what we're getting is 6 story boxes. I've said this before in another thread somewhere on here, but I just don't get it. I get the whole "lack of large corporate presence" thing, but I don't see why we can't get a tower that's 20 stories of office, 20 stories of apartments, and 20 stories of hotel rooms. I'm not an economic major or anything, but a mixed use tower like that seems like it would make a ton of sense in Portland. PAW is a good start, I just can't get why developers and investors in Portland can't think big. It's pathetic with how much growth Portland has had in the past few decades that our tallest building was built in 1972. It would be nice to get something that pushes the 600 foot mark just to modernize the skyline a bit. I know, I know, built urban form is more important than tall buildings. I just think a new tallest would make a huge impact for this city.
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It's simple, really. The math doesn't work 98% of the time.
I wish it did and more tall buildings could occupy the skyline. Portland's zoning code requirements are especially adept at making the ground floor areas feel better than other cities, so it would retain it's unique quality, IMO.
Developers need the math to point to good IRR and cap rates, because their investors expect it. Especially the institutional ones. The cost to build here in Portland like this....just doesn't yield the necessary revenue to justify the investment. It's really expensive to build taller than 240' (required redundant structural systems, etc. and even more expensive to build above 420'.)
South Waterfront is a great example. Lots of taller zoning and little to nothing tall proposed.
The 2% of the time where an exception is present, like being an early bird (or so late, you're early for the next wave) you get the Park Avenue West, apartment tower. A fantastic project in the literal center of the city, at the right time. (4 years of the absolute 'wrong' time preceded it... so it remained a hole in the ground.) Or Cosmopolitan, which was in the works when the economy was busted but recovering.
More tall buildings will happen in the future, but not to the frequency that some envision or expect. Unless the economic landscape evolves further upward in Portland. It's debatable whether the city wants $5-6 dollar/ft apartment rent, $1,000 to $1,200/sf condo prices and $50-$60 dollar/ft/year office rent. That's San Francisco money. Seattle is on its way in that direction, already.
Hard to see wages supporting that here, at least for the time being.