Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician
I disagree that Rahm would have a 50/50 chance of winning a runoff. Not sure where you are getting that.
Also, your "most recent poll" is quite outdated, and is at least older than the last debate, if not the one before it. Your poll is from January 31, which means that data it uses is probably a few days older than that.
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It is the most recent poll available that I have seen anywhere and until a post debates poll comes out it is only speculation what kind of an impact they had, actually I don't think mayoral debates have that big of an impact in and of themselves.
When I said Rahm would have a 50/50 chance of winning a runoff I meant that his campaign money could still overcome a challenger like Chuy Garcia, although the anti-Rahm vote would be motivated behind that one challenger and voter turnout might increase. Do you think the chance of him winning a runoff would be more or less than 50%?