Quote:
Originally Posted by Stingray2004
Agreed and I also realize that. IMHO, both the population on the Sunshine Coast as well as the AADT on the Horseshoe Bay to Langdale ferry run currently do not warrant a highway replacement at $1.5 - $3 billion.
BTW, the 2015 AADT of the Horseshoe Bay to Langdale run is just a puny 2,903. Current ferry fare (1 car + 1 passenger) equates to about $70 one way. I suspect that any highway toll would be considerably much higher.
(I could work backwards on a 40-year asset life cycle + annualized maintenance + principal/interest amortization + applicable discount rate over same time frame for a rough tolling figure at outset but it's a time consuming exercise).
Ergo, I suspect that the existing Langdale ferry run is much more cost effective and cheaper for the consumer over the mid-term. It's akin to when MoTI conducted a study of a a crossing of the Georgia Strait to Van Isle. Huge tolling figure. Again, when the population of Van Isle increases by another million+ over the next 50 years it could potentially be feasible. But not over the mid-term.
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Its not about commuters today. Its about opening up the coast to economic development. There is a deep water port there hundreds of square km's of land ready to be developed and more. None of this can be utilized without a reliable fixed link. Its as simple as that. The 2 to 3 billion would pay or its self many times over in a short period of time through increased economic activity in the region that stretches for 150 km's north of downtown Vancouver and offers some of the best land in this province.
None of this has anything to do with current residents and everything to do with future economic activity.
Until a fixed link is built the region will have virtually zero economic growth and continue being a borderline drain on the rest of the province. The ferry chokes of the region.
Also the Horseshoe bay terminal needs some half a billion in upgrades and one of the main ferry runs will need to shit down for a considerable period of time. As it stands that means several years of the Nanaimo run operating only out of Tssawassen unless the Langdale run can be discontinued.