You argue California's net negative domestic migration is "a bad sign for California's future," because it must necessarily lead to the same "precipitous" decline experienced over the last few decades in places like Upstate New York, West Virginia, Louisiana, Illinois, etc., but you can't prove that. It's just an idea you want to believe is true.
Look, it's not that California cannot possibly decline in population over the coming decades. I'm not pulling one of these "Prove me wrong or Dallas hits 20 million and overtakes Los Angeles!" homerisms. It's just not likely, because 1) Net domestic out-migration amounted to 0.48% of the state's total population in 2018, which is hardly 'precipitous'; 2) California is expected to continue to grow through natural increase alone, because of our demographics; and 2) California is too dissimilar from those other states in such critical ways that they cannot be analogous, and thus fail to accurately represent this state or reliably predict its future. Your argument just doesn't hold water.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno
Damn you guys do like to cherry pick
In any example I can think of ongoing precipitous domestic out migration is not a good thing. You can focus on west Virginia if you want to be an ostrich but I would think the NYC- Upstate NY example of the constantly hemorrhaging state of Illinois- Chicago are probably going to be a good indication of whats going to happen to California in coming decades.
The gorilla city (2 cities for Cali) will still bring in population or at least stay stable while the other parts of the state whither away like Upstate NY or like Chicago outside of the Suburbs/Loop and the state of Illinois in general.
Whats causing out migration is clearly not going to stop and based on the block-headed conversations I have with the people on this board, it'll probably get worse.
At some point international immigration wont offset the people leaving. Maybe then some corrective action will take place.
But hey some of you seem to think its fine that millions of people outside of the privileged cities of LA and San Francisco begin to fall apart. I cant understand such an opinion but there ya go.
After all to quote somebody above "California IS San Francisco and LA"
|