Quote:
Originally Posted by TorontoDrew
Lol at looking at predictions for the world series one month into the regular season. Too funny if you think 7 wins between the top team and the Jays won't change over the next 4 months of baseball. Not to mention we still are out 2 of our best players.
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Um, what? Do you understand the methodology that the website uses? What they are doing are making an estimate of the relative quality of the team as it has been so far, as measured by their runs scored and allowed in every game they have played so far, after taking into account a variety of factors such as the opposing team, the starting pitchers, the stadium where the game was played, and so on. Then they calculate the probability of winning N games over the rest of their schedule, for each possible value of N, and compare the total likelihoods of wins for each team in their division.
Of COURSE the final numbers can vary a lot, given what has been done this early in the season, and they account for that in the spread of possible total wins for each team. But they have verified the probabilities by using part-season totals from earlier seasons to "predict" that season, and found that the probabilities they generate match the actual results for the seasons, taken as a whole.