It's also possible that a lesser known candidate enters the race and wins over the party. Greg Rickford and Erin O'Toole - two ministers from Ontario - have interesting backgrounds and both have been capable ministers. O'Toole hasn't been an MP for long but has quickly moved up the ranks and has done good work at Veteran's Affairs. Jean Charest did not have a whole lot of cabinet experience and was only 35 years old when he early beat out Kim Campbell for the leadership of the PC Party.
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Originally Posted by Loco101
The only reason why the CPC got 25% in 2006 in Quebec was because many Liberal (and federalist) supporters hated the LPC after the sponsorship scandal and voted for another federalist party. Even though Layton was leader of the NDP, the party wasn't considered to be a serious choice in the province at that time.
I don't think the CPC in its current state would ever do any better in Quebec. The party would need somebody like an updated version of Brian Mulroney.
And btw, Harper didn't win over Ontarians as a whole but did win the most seats in 2011. You will see how soft his support has been tomorrow night as many of the CPC MPs will have only served one term. Here in Northern Ontario, Harper is very unpopular and always has been. I'm pretty sure the 3 Northern Ontario CPC MPs will be turfed as most people in those ridings felt that the conservatives were bad for our region.
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The Conservatives won 44% of the vote which is a pretty good showing in a three party system.