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Old Posted Jul 13, 2016, 4:05 AM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
The City
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Chicago region
Posts: 21,375
Will cities experience a second decline?

Cities are seeming invincible these days.

But I wonder if, when newer generations start seeking more space, and when the bills are due to update depreciated residential units (i.e. stuff built or rehabbed in the past 20 years) the capital will be available.

Sure we will never see the same degree of White Flight we saw 50-60 years ago, but is some decline in cities going to happen?

I think so. But I see the City vs Suburb thing as an unpowered pendulum, with each arc being smaller than the previous one. The first arc saw huge declines in our cities, followed by the same in the suburbs. But with each wave, like a swinging pendulum that weakens with friction, the changes become smaller and less substantial.

My prediction is that the long term health of cities is excellent, but they aren't free of market fluctuations, hence hard times, yet.
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