Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Light
So, I went to Stats Cans site see what they think 'realistic' scenarios of growth look like.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...estdm1-eng.htm
Based on this publication, by 2061, which most here would hope to be within their lifetimes, they peg 52M-64M as a reasonable guess.
If you take the high forecast and apply that growth rate to the end of the century, you get something in the ballpark of 100M.
So I think that's a logical place to start in terms of imagining where Canada may head, mixing a tad of fantasy, with a bit of reality.
Rather than throwing darts at a map, my first thought as to where growth would occur, is how much fresh water is easily accessible.
That makes Cities on the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence obvious choices for growth.
I'd be much more concerned about cities that are dependent on glacier-fed rivers in a era of climate change. (Calgary)
Beyond the obvious then, where do we have vast fresh water, but few people? |
That is something I think about sometimes. Cities in Alberta and Saskatchewan could be very vulnerable to climate change-related disruptions to fresh water supplies, due to a lack of large surface water sources nearby and distance from oceans. Vancouver also relies to an extent on glacier-fed rivers & lakes but desalination could be an alternative so it's less of a concern. The Great Lakes are also vulnerable to falling water levels but the sheer volume of water there makes it safe.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Light
Kingston in Ontario makes sense, and it would be logical to have one other city of size on Lake Erie. Pt. Colborne or Pt. Stanley would make the most sense, taking advantage of the nearby size of Welland and St. Thomas respectively.
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I'm not as familiar w/the natural limits of growth in Mtrl or Vancouver.
But in the GTA, I think the City proper can top out at round 4.5m by 2100, anchoring a region about 4 times that size, or around 18M
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The entirety of the QC-Windsor corridor could really use the intermediate cities getting bigger. If Trois-Rivieres, Drummondville, Cornwall, Brockville, Kingston, Belleville, Woodstock, and Chatham grew into larger cities it would really help "tie" the corridor together.
Further growth in the Estrie and Laurentides regions of Quebec, as well as on the southern shore of Lake Huron and northern shore Lake Erie in Ontario could be help make this urban belt "wider". Places like Bancroft and Montebello would be absolutely stunning natural settings for sizeable cities.
As for Toronto, I think one area where the GTA really has room to grow is eastward. The GTA seems to be slowly growing northward towards Barrie, westward towards KWC, and southeastward to Niagara, but it doesn't seem to be growing at all east of Durham. Northumberland County has a lot of untapped growth potential, IMO. Yes, it's far, but not really any further than the other peripheral parts of the GGH. Cobourg is about the same distance from downtown Toronto as Niagara Falls, Kitchener, or Barrie.