View Single Post
  #2  
Old Posted Aug 13, 2018, 8:55 PM
SignalHillHiker's Avatar
SignalHillHiker SignalHillHiker is online now
I ♣ Baby Seals
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Sin Jaaawnz, Newf'nland
Posts: 34,728
As long as the federal Conservative Party doesn't win, I'm fine with the result.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, it depends on who is running. MP Nick Whalen in St. John's East is definitely vulnerable. He rode the red wave to barely defeat the NDP incumbent Jack Harris, 46.7% to 45.3%. In the previous three elections, Harris won with 70-75% of the vote. There is certainly no red wave this time, so if Harris runs, I expect he will win.

St. John's South-Mount Pearl has flipped between the Liberals and NDP for the last several elections. MP Seamus O'Regan is popular, much moreso than the separatist NDP incumbent he defeated ever was. So that one is probably safe.

Pre-Harper, both of these ridings (and their predecessors) were reliably blue. The current Conservative Party won't change that, but some future iteration certainly could. Fiscal conservatism and social liberalism or libertarianism is definitely what these ridings prefer.

For the rest, they will never go NDP. Ever. Under any circumstances. They could go Conservative if the local candidate is beloved enough, but that isn't likely.
__________________
Note to self: "The plural of anecdote is not evidence."
Reply With Quote