[Acajack]

Originally Posted by zahav

I posted something in the Statistics thread in October about interprovincial migration movements from 1986 to present. See below:

I did some calculations from StatsCan on inter provincial migration over the last 3 decades. Starting from July 1 1986 to July 1 2017 (one year after the 2016 census), I calculated the total net inter provincial migration for each province. Only BC and Alberta had positive inter provincial migration during this period. BC gained 397,023 and Alberta gained 394,223. Percentage-wise, Alberta did the best, and BC for total number. Every other province lost population in exchanges with the other provinces. See numbers below:
NL -86,116
PE -3,680
NS -36,784
NB -40,520
QC -290,396
ON -3,133
MB -159,143
SK -154,913
AB +394,223
BC +397,023
YK -186
NT -3,680
NU -2,541

There were variances within certain periods for sure, but this is the total number after 31 years. The only thing that pushed BC past Alberta is the most recent Jul 2016-2017 period. BC gained 16,000 during this period, and Alberta lost 15,000. But they are essentially neck and neck in total numbers over the past 30 years. Ontario will be back in positive territory by the next population estimate, but won't be anywhere near BC for the forseeable future barring any catastrophe. Alberta will likely have a couple more quarters of losses, but it is slowing.

All data can be pulled from tables here:
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26...ataTable&csid=

I have an excel sheet with each year and census period, so you can see the breakdown. Some swings are fairly dramatic, with some years being hugely positive and then swinging to negative. The largest growth in a single census period was BC in 1991-1996, gaining 167,290. The largest loss was Quebec in 1996-2001, losing 69,047.

With the latest Q3 population estimates, Ontario is in fact back in positive territory, net gain of 4,674 from 1986-2017. BC still the highest with 397,566 and Alberta in second with 394,966. Alberta and Ontario to BC were always two of the largest movements. Ontario typically loses population to BC, Alberta, and hit or miss with the other provinces. But almost always gains with Quebec. But I think with the economy in Quebec finally improved, those numbers could be changing.

Given the demographics of the province and the country as a whole, I don't see the situation ever truly reversing itself for Quebec. Regardless of how hot the economy here gets.

The last time Quebec had a positive net interprovincial migration figure was 1961.