Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007
Often I've wondered, and the comments in the Phoenix thread made me wonder further, is there ever going to be another "new, big" city in the US? Or Canada for that matter?
By that I mean, not a completely new city, of course, but a city that's maybe small or middle-sized at most, as Phoenix was 50+ years ago, but is erstwhile not much to note, but that becomes big enough to harbor multiple big league sport teams, has at least 3 or 4 million in the metro, etc.
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If current population trends continue, there are 3 medium-sized metro areas that will top 4 million in 25 years time.
Austin: current pop 1.7 million; pop. growth rate 16.6% per 5 years; est. pop. in 2040 4.3 million
Orlando: current pop. 2.1 million, pop. growth rate 11.8% per 5 years; est. pop. in 2040 4.2 million
San Antonio: current pop. 2.1 million, pop. growth rate 11.3% per 5 years; est. pop. in 2040 4.1 million
Even the large metro areas in Texas and Florida currently enjoy relatively high population growth rates.
The Houston metro area has a growth rate of 12.4% per 5 years
The Dallas metro area has a growth rate of 10.5% per 5 years
And the Miami metro area has a growth rate of 8.0% per 5 years
Texas and Florida have a relatively low cost of living, are attractive to business and have no personal income tax.
So I think it's reasonable to expect the currently high population growth rates of Austin, San Antonio, and Orlando to continue for the next 25 years.