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Old Posted Aug 13, 2018, 11:31 PM
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thurmas thurmas is offline
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Originally Posted by hipster duck View Post
^Interesting. Maybe I'm being a little conservative (pun) with my vote projections. People are very fickle these days, and the old adage "it's the economy, stupid" no longer applies to incumbents. Besides, the economy may/will probably be worse then than it is now.

I probably underestimated how well the Conservatives will do. I recognize that they'll pick up everything that they lost in the Prairies (that's sort of the natural order of things), and that they'll probably pick up something in Atlantic Canada, but it seems like they've hit a bit of a voter wall everywhere else. I can't see many more Southern Ontario ridings turning Conservative apart from the three or four in Central Ontario (which are also belwethers). They basically already have every riding that isn't urban or suburban.
Most federal polls since February show the Tories and Liberals either 2-3 points ahead of each other or tied in Ontario. In 2015 the Liberals won 80 Ontario seats with 44.8 % of the vote compared to the Tories 31 seats at 35% and the NDP won 8 seats at 16.6%. If both are roughly tied at 37% in Ontario and the NDP now has an Ontarian leader who should be able to gather more support in the visible minority ridings of the GTA than Mulcair could that only means the Liberals lose dozens of Ontario seats.
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