Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeFadesAway
If you look at the data on the Stats Can website, which dates back to 1962, we've had net negative interprovincial migration every year except 82,83 and 84. As a percentage of population, the trendline (just eyeballing the data) appears to be going down (that is, this number is generally a smaller and smaller percentage of our overall population).
In other words, some people leave, but it's no big deal. We're a smaller province and can't provide the same opportunities or variety of opportunities that larger provinces can offer. These days, people tend to leave small places for larger places because of the opportunities larger places provide. This is not a Manitoba phenomenon, it is universal in the Western world. It is simply a function of living in a smaller place.
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For the last 40 years our interprovincial migration patterns have largely been influenced by the economic conditions of BC and Alberta, and especially Alberta in the 21st century. Coincidentally, the years we have positive interprovincial migration (82-84), and relatively little negative migration all happen to coincide with economic downturns in Alberta.
In 2008, the Alberta economy went in the dumper. The interprovincial negaive migration out of Manitoba dropped to 2,000 in 2009 and 2010. At the end of 2014, the economic downturn in Alberta reared it's ugly head again. I would be willing to bet that the 2016 numbers will be around 2,000 again. Alberta really felt the full effects of the recession last year.
Having said that, I can see Winnipeg gaining an average of 12,500 people in the next 5 years.