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Old Posted Mar 18, 2012, 8:02 PM
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Not great news, but at least the economy isn't sinking. The job loss situation is a disturbing trend. From the Ithaca Journal:

Economic index: Tompkins economy shows slight move up in January

4:16 PM, Mar. 16, 2012

The Ithaca College Index of Economic Activity essentially remained unchanged in January with an upward move of 0.07 percent.

The slight uptick continues the trend of stagnation that characterized the last quarter of 2011. Employment and retail sales dragged the index down, while home sales, building permits and air traffic fought upward. Help wanted advertising held steady. Compared to January 2011, economic activity was down 2.24 percent.

After giving up 300 jobs in December, Tompkins County lost another 500 jobs in January. All of the figures in this report are seasonally adjusted. The trend in employment has been sharply downward since early 2011. We had been recovering from the recession nicely when employment peaked at 66,200 in March 2011. Since then the number of jobs in Tompkins County has fallen to 61,700.

Retailers in Tompkins County saw their sales volume dip 3.75 percent in January. Compared to January 2011 retail sales were up 1.12 percent. Over the past year the retail sector has shown sluggish but steady growth.

The number of passengers boarding and deplaning at Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport soared 4.16 percent in January. Compared to January 2011, air traffic was up 7.51 percent. Air traffic has been strong for more than four years.

Residential building permits issued in Tompkins County vaulted 99.21 percent in January. Building permits are an extremely volatile indicator. They are off to a good start in 2012.

Home sales began the year showing strength as well. County realtors sold 51 homes in January, an improvement of 33.83 percent over December and 30.77 over January 2011. The average sale price was $178,500 compared to $204,600 a year earlier. The median home sold for $157,500 compared to $167,500 a year earlier.

Help wanted advertising inched back 0.18 percent in January. Compared to January 2011, help wanted advertising was up 10.51 percent.

Data revisions have altered our picture of past economic growth in Tompkins County. The recession in 2008 and 2009 was a tad worse than the original data indicated, but economic growth in 2010 was revised upward to 3.0 percent from 2.3 percent. There was less than 1 percent growth in 2011. The forecast for 2012 is for 1 percent growth.

Elia Kacapyr is a professor of economics at Ithaca College. His economic report on Tompkins County is published monthly in The Ithaca Journal.

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