[Spocket]

I always thought Quebec City would reach a million first simply through growth in the region eventually leading to expansion of the commutershed.

Hamilton seems like it should already be at a million given its proximity to T.O. but we've been saying that for years. At the very least, we'd expect a lot more spillover but it's possible that right now that's the only thing keeping it growing at all. Unfortunately, as our cities finally start to look inwards for growth, it's unlikely that Toronto's sprawl will ever include the Hamilton region...if that trend continues (and it probably will) That means it's unlikely Hamilton can expect any spillover growth from T.O.

Winnipeg is the dark horse here or at least it was. When I was a kid in the 80's and 90's I never realized that Winnipeg was such a slow growth place. Then, when I did, everything got turned around. Now Winnipeg is probably the most likely to reach a million first at an accelerating pace...what a turnaround.

Honestly, it's a tough race to call. I still say QC first but not through direct growth.