10 years is a bit short, but I wouldn't bet against it. All the oil money is making Norway feel it's doin' alright without membership. But as it is they have to follow almost all the rules and can't partake in deciding...
Norway staying outside even today is to me not so smart. If the referendum there had gone just a bit diffrent they'd have been members for over 10 years already - and Iceland might have been part of the recent expansions.
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